Independent risk factors and predictive score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B

Hepatocellular Cancer Surveillance in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, biannual surveillance is recommended. This large-scale multicenter study aimed to stratify the risk of HCC development in ACLD.

METHODS

From 3016 patients with ACLD screened in 17 European and Chinese centers, 2340 patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) determined using different techniques (two-dimensional shear-wave elastography [2D-SWE], transient elastography, and point shear-wave elastography) and with different disease severities were included. Cox regression was used to explore risk factors for HCC. We used these data to create an algorithm, named PLEASE, but referred to in this manuscript as "the algorithm"; the algorithm was validated in internal and two external cohorts across elastography techniques.

RESULTS

HCC developed in 127 (5.4%) patients during follow-up. LSM by 2D-SWE (hazard ratio: 2.28) was found to be associated with developing HCC, alongside age, sex, etiology, and platelet count (C-index: 0.8428). We thus established the algorithm with applicable cutoffs, assigning a maximum of six points: platelet count less than 150×109/l, LSM greater than or equal to 15 kPa, age greater than or equal to 50 years, male sex, controlled/uncontrolled viral hepatitis, or presence of steatotic liver diseases. Within 2 years, with a median follow-up of 13.7 months, patients in the high-risk group (≥4 points) had an HCC incidence of 15.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.1% to 18.7%) compared with the low-risk group, at 1.7% (95% CI, 0.9% to 2.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our algorithm stratified patients into two groups: those at higher risk of developing HCC and those at lower risk. Our data provide equipoise to test the prospective utility of the algorithm with respect to clinical decisions about screening patients with ACLD for incident HCC. (Funded by the German Research Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03389152.).

Viral Load-Based Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Noncirrhotic Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B : A Multinational Study for the Development and External Validation of a New Prognostic Model

BACKGROUND

A nonlinear association between serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk has been suggested in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

OBJECTIVE

To develop and externally validate a prognostic model for HCC risk in noncirrhotic adult patients with CHB and no notable alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation.

DESIGN

Multinational cohort study.

SETTING

A community-based cohort in Taiwan (REVEAL-HBV [Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus]; REACH-B [Risk Estimation for HCC in CHB] model cohort) and 8 hospital-based cohorts from Korea and Hong Kong (GAG-HCC [Guide with Age, Gender, HBV DNA-HCC] and CU-HCC [Chinese University-HCC] cohorts).

PARTICIPANTS

Model development: 6949 patients with CHB from a Korean hospital-based cohort. External validation: 7429 patients with CHB combined from the Taiwanese cohort and 7 cohorts from Korea and Hong Kong.

MEASUREMENTS

Incidence of HCC.

RESULTS

Over median follow-up periods of 10.0 and 12.2 years, the derivation and validation cohorts identified 435 and 467 incident HCC cases, respectively. Baseline HBV DNA level was one of the strongest predictors of HCC development, demonstrating a nonlinear parabolic association in both cohorts, with moderate viral loads (around 6 log10 IU/mL) showing the highest HCC risk. Additional predictors included in the new model (Revised REACH-B) were age, sex, platelet count, ALT levels, and positive hepatitis B e antigen result. The model exhibited satisfactory discrimination and calibration, with c-statistics of 0.844 and 0.813 in the derivation and validation cohorts with multiple imputation, respectively. The model yielded a greater positive net benefit compared with other strategies in the 0% to 18% threshold.

LIMITATION

Validation in cohorts of other races and receiving antiviral treatment was lacking.

CONCLUSION

Our new prognostic model, based on the nonlinear association between HBV viral loads and HCC risk, provides a valuable tool for predicting and stratifying HCC risk in noncirrhotic patients with CHB who are not currently indicated for antiviral treatment.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Korean government.

Validation of the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Index Predictive Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Asian Cohort

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a significant global health burden, with its incidence and mortality rates varying significantly across different geographic regions. This variance is largely attributed to differences in the prevalence of risk factors such as hepatitis B and C infections, and alcohol consumption, as well as genetic predispositions that are distinct between Eastern and Western populations. Moreover, the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the disease's epidemiology further complicates the global understanding and prediction of HCC. Such disparities highlight the critical need to evaluate the applicability of predictive models across diverse populations, acknowledging that a model developed in one region may not necessarily translate with the same accuracy or effectiveness when applied to another, because of these underlying epidemiologic and genetic differences. In this study, we aimed to assess the cross-regional applicability and accuracy of an HCC prediction model (Texas hepatocellular carcinoma risk index [THCC-RI] predictive model) originally developed in Western populations, within an Eastern context.1,2.

Disease modifiers and novel markers in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is responsible for 40% of the global burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a high case fatality rate. The risk of HCC differs among CHB subjects owing to differences in host and viral factors. Modifiable risk factors include viral load, use of antiviral therapy, co-infection with other hepatotropic viruses, concomitant metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease or diabetes mellitus, environmental exposure, and medication use. Detecting HCC at early stage improves survival, and current practice recommends HCC surveillance among individuals with cirrhosis, family history of HCC, or above an age cut-off. Ultrasonography with or without serum alpha feto-protein (AFP) every 6 months is widely accepted strategy for HCC surveillance. Novel tumor-specific markers, when combined with AFP, improve diagnostic accuracy than AFP alone to detect HCC at an early stage. To predict the risk of HCC, a number of clinical risk scores have been developed but none of them are clinically implemented nor endorsed by clinical practice guidelines. Biomarkers that reflect viral transcriptional activity and degree of liver fibrosis can potentially stratify the risk of HCC, especially among subjects who are already on antiviral therapy. Ongoing exploration of these novel biomarkers is required to confirm their performance characteristics, replicability and practicability.

Risk predictive model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma before initiating long-term antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

It is generally acknowledged that antiviral therapy can reduce the incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there remains a subset of patients with chronic HBV infection who develop HCC despite receiving antiviral treatment. This study aimed to develop a model capable of predicting the long-term occurrence of HCC in patients with chronic HBV infection before initiating antiviral therapy. A total of 1450 patients with chronic HBV infection, who received initial antiviral therapy between April 2006 and March 2023 and completed long-term follow-ups, were nonselectively enrolled in this study. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox regression analysis was used to construct the model. The results were validated in an external cohort (n = 210) and compared with existing models. The median follow-up time for all patients was 60 months, with a maximum follow-up time of 144 months, during which, 32 cases of HCC occurred. The nomogram model for predicting HCC based on GGT, AFP, cirrhosis, gender, age, and hepatitis B e antibody (TARGET-HCC) was constructed, demonstrating a good predictive performance. In the derivation cohort, the C-index was 0.906 (95% CI = 0.869-0.944), and in the validation cohort, it was 0.780 (95% CI = 0.673-0.886). Compared with existing models, TARGET-HCC showed promising predictive performance. Additionally, the time-dependent feature importance curve indicated that gender consistently remained the most stable predictor for HCC throughout the initial decade of antiviral therapy. This simple predictive model based on noninvasive clinical features can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients with chronic HBV infection for HCC before the initiation of antiviral therapy.

Unmet needs in the clinical management of chronic hepatitis B infection

The hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a global problem despite effective tools to prevent, diagnosis, and control it. Unmet needs are identifiable across its clinical care cascade, underlining the challenges providers face in delivering effective care for patients with chronic hepatitis B. The review herein will focus on three timely clinical issues in HBV. This includes efforts to optimize delivery of perinatal HBV care, improve HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification models, and clarify the role of finite therapy in the HBV treatment algorithm. Important developments within these three topics will be addressed with the goal to motivate further investigation and optimization of these treatment strategies for HBV.

Association of hepatitis B virus treatment with all-cause and liver-related mortality among individuals with HBV and cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study

Background

We evaluated the association of hepatitis B virus (HBV) treatment with all-cause, and liver-related mortality among individuals with HBV and cirrhosis in British Columbia (BC), Canada.

Methods

This analysis included people diagnosed with HBV and had cirrhosis in the BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort, including data on all individuals diagnosed with HBV from 1990 to 2015 in BC and integrated with healthcare administrative data. We followed people with cirrhosis from the first cirrhosis diagnosis date until death or December 31, 2020. We compared all-cause and liver related mortality between those who received treatment and those who did not. HBV treatment was considered a time-varying variable. We performed multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and competing risk regression models to assess the association of HBV treatment with all causes, and liver-related mortality respectively using inverse probability of treatment weighted population.

Findings

Among 4962 individuals with HBV and cirrhosis, 48.1% received HBV treatment. Treated individuals had a median follow-up of 2.97 years, compared to 2.87 years for untreated individuals. The treated group was older (median age 57 vs 54 years), had higher proportion of treated of males [1802 (75.50%) vs 1766 (68.8%)], from urban area [2318 (97.2%) vs 2355 (91.8%)], and from East and South Asian ethnicity [1506 (63.1%) vs 709 (27.5%)] compared to untreated group. Untreated people experienced higher all-cause mortality (115.47 vs. 35.72 per 1000 person-years) and liver-related mortality (49.86 vs. 11.39 per 1000 person-years). Multivariable models showed that HBV treatment significantly lowered the risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.74; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.84) and liver-related mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (asHR) 0.72; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.89) compared to untreated individuals. Among untreated individuals with HBV, those with HCV coinfection had a higher risk of both all-cause and liver-related mortality (aHR 1.57; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.04, and asHR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.25, 2.05, respectively).

Interpretation

HBV treatment was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause and liver-related mortality among individuals with cirrhosis. The findings highlight the need for treatment among individuals with HBV related cirrhosis especially those with coinfection with hepatitis C virus.

Funding

This work was supported by the BC Centre for Disease Control and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) [Grant # NHC-142832, PJT-156066, and SC1 -178736]. JDM has received doctoral fellowship from the Canadian Network on Hepatitis C (CanHepC). DJ has received Doctoral Research Award (#201910DF1-435705-64343) from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) and doctoral fellowship from the CanHepC. CanHepC is funded by a joint initiative of the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (NHC-142832) and the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).

Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Successfully Treated Viral Disease of the Liver: A Systematic Review

Background

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been proven to increase the proportion of tumors detected at early stages and the chance of receiving curative therapies, reducing mortality by about 30%.

Summary

Current recommendations consist of a semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein measurement in patients with cirrhosis and specific subgroups of populations with chronic viral hepatitis. Antiviral therapies, such as nucleot(s)ide analogs that efficiently suppress the replication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and direct-acting antiviral drugs able to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in >90% of patients, have radically changed the outcomes of viral liver disease and decreased, but not eliminated, the risk of HCC in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients. HCC risk is a key starting point for implementing a cost-effective surveillance and should also guide the decision-making process concerning its modality. As the global number of effectively treated viral patients continues to rise, there is a pressing need to identify those for whom the benefit-to-harm ratio of surveillance is favorable and to determine how to conduct cost-effective screening on such patients.

Key Messages

This article addresses this topic and attempts to determine which patients should continue HCC surveillance after HBV suppression or HCV eradication, based on cost-effectiveness principles and the fact that HCC risk declines over time. We also formulate a proposal for a surveillance algorithm that switches the use of surveillance for HCC from the "one-size-fits-all" approach to individualized programs based on oncologic risk (precision surveillance).

BALAD score predicts the recurrence and survival in the patients who underwent initial hepatectomy for HCC

BACKGROUNDS

Several studies have indicated that BALAD score which includes the HCC tumor markers of HCC, AFP, AFP-L3%, DCP, and serum albumin and bilirubin value were good predictors of HCC patients for all treatment modalities. In this study, we aim to clarify the impact of BALAD score as the prognostic factor for HCC patients after curative surgery.

METHODS

This study investigated 578 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between January 2003 and May 2013. Cumulative recurrence rate, overall survival (OS), and clinicopathological parameters were analyzed according to the level of BALAD score.

RESULTS

In patients with higher BALAD score, recurrence rate and OS was poor (p = 0.0015 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Multivariate analyses revealed independent risk factors for recurrence to be male (hazard ratio [HR] 1.52, P = 0.011), HCV-antibody positive (HR 1.33, P = 0.019), multiple tumors (HR 2.16, P < 0.0001), microvascular invasion (HR 1.45, P = 0.0035) and higher BALAD score (RR 1.70, P = 0.015). The independent risk factors for OS were multiple tumors (HR 1.52, P = 0.014), microvascular invasion (HR 1.53, P = 0.012), and higher BALAD score (RR 2.51, P = 0.0012).

CONCLUSION

BALAD score is associated with high recurrence rate and poor overall survival of the patients who underwent curative liver resection for HCC.

Predictive Risk Factors and Scoring Systems Associated with the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection constitutes a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The identification of HCC risk factors and the development of prognostic risk scores are essential for early diagnosis and prognosis. The aim of this observational, retrospective study was to evaluate baseline risk factors associated with HCC in CHB. Six hundred thirty-two consecutive adults with CHB (n = 632) [median age: 46 (IQR: 24)], attending the outpatients' Hepatology clinics between 01/1993-09/2020 were evaluated. Core promoter mutations and cirrhosis-HCC (GAG-HCC), Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC), risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (REACH-B), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and Platelet Age Gender-HBV (PAGE-B) prognostic scores were calculated, and receiver operating curves were used to assess their prognostic performance. HCC was developed in 34 (5.38%) patients. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (HR: 1.086, 95% CI: 1.037-1.137), male sex (HR: 7.696, 95% CI: 1.971-30.046), alcohol abuse (HR: 2.903, 95% CI: 1.222-6.987) and cirrhosis (HR: 21.239, 95% CI: 6.001-75.167) at baseline were independently associated with the development of HCC. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed the highest performance with c-statistics of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.829-0.961) and 0.857 (95% CI: 0.791-0.924), respectively. In the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis, the performance of all scores declined. When treated and untreated patients were studied separately, the discriminatory ability of the scores differed. In conclusion, HCC development was independently associated with advanced age, male sex, alcohol abuse, and baseline cirrhosis among a diverse population with CHB. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed high discriminatory performance to assess the risk of HCC development in these patients, but these performances declined in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. Further research to develop scores more specific to certain CHB subgroups is needed.

Clinical performance of Circulating HBV RNA and iTACT-HBcrAg Assays in HBeAg-negative and HBsAg-cleared Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) have been reported to reflect the transcriptional activity of covalently closed circular HBV DNA. We retrospectively investigated the proportions of quantifiable serum HBV RNA and immunoassay for total antigen including complex via pretreatment-hepatitis B core-related antigen (iTACT-HBcrAg) in chronic hepatitis B patients negative for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and/or with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. This study included 246 HBeAg-negative HBV-infected patients, who comprised 13 with liver cirrhosis (LC, the LC group), 118 chronic hepatitis (CH, the CH group), and 115 inactive carriers (IC, the IC group), and 44 patients with HBsAg seroclearance. iTACT-HBcrAg and HBV RNA levels were determined using stored serum samples. Higher proportions of the patients had quantifiable iTACT-HBcrAg than HBV RNA in all groups of HBeAg-negative patients (iTACT-HBcrAg: 84.6%, 90.7%, 35.7%, HBV RNA: 23.1%, 26.3%, 14.8%, for the LC, CH, IC groups). With HBsAg seroclearance (HBsAg <0.05 IU/mL), the proportions of quantifiable samples for HBV RNA were also lower than iTACT-HBcrAg (0% for HBV RNA). Thus, iTACT-HBcrAg was more often detectable than circulating HBV RNA in this study population. Further long-term prospective evaluation of iTACT-HBcrAg is desirable for its utilization in clinical practice.

Clinical Utility of the aMAP Score for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the aMAP score and compare it with other risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We retrospectively analyzed patients with CHB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019. Data on demographics, clinical parameters, cirrhosis status, HCC imaging, and alpha fetoprotein surveillance were collected to calculate the aMAP score (0-100) based on age, sex, albumin-bilirubin level, and platelet count. Of the 1060 patients analyzed, 789 were eligible, of whom 51 developed HCC. The cumulative HCC incidences in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups at 3, 5, and 10 years were significantly different (log-rank, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the aMAP scores for predicting HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.748, 0.777, and 0.784, respectively. Among the risk scores, the CU-HCC score had the highest AUROCs (0.823) for predicting 5-year HCC development. The aMAP score is a valuable tool for predicting HCC risk in Thai patients with CHB and can enhance surveillance strategies. However, its performance is inferior to that of the CU-HCC score, suggesting the need for new predictive tools for HCC surveillance.

Serum ApoB/ApoA1 ratio in patients with CHB and the occurrence of HBV related cirrhosis and HBV related hepatocellular carcinoma

Clinical research has suggested that chronic HBV infection exerts a certain effect on the occurrence of cardiovascular disease by regulating cholesterol metabolism in liver cells. High serum apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 (ApoB/ApoA1) ratio plays a certain role in the above regulation, and it serves as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, whether the ApoB/ApoA1 ratio is correlated with chronic HBV infection and its disease progression remains unclear. In accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria, all 378 participants administrated at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from March 2021 to March 2022, fell into Healthy Control (HC) group (50 participants), Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) group (107 patients), liver cirrhosis (LC) group (64 patients), chronic hepatitis B (CHB) group (62 patients), chronic hepatitis C (CHC) group (46 patients) and Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) group (49 patients). Serum ApoA1 and ApoB concentrations were measured at admission, and the ApoB/ApoA1 ratio was determined. The levels of laboratory parameters in the respective group were compared and ApoB/ApoA1 ratios in HCC patients and LC patients with different severity were further analyzed. ROC curves were plotted to analyze the early diagnostic ability of ApoB/ApoA1 ratio for HBV-associated HCC. Logistic regression and restricted cubic spline analysis were used to explore the correlation between ApoB/ApoA1 ratio and LC and HCC risk. A comparison was drawn in terms of ApoB/ApoA1 ratio between the groups, and the result was expressed in descending sequence: HEV group > CHB group > LC group > HCC group > CHC group > HC group, early-stage HCC < middle-stage HCC < advanced-stage HCC, Class A LC < Class B LC < Class C LC. Serum ApoB/ApoA1 ratio combined diagnosis with AFP exhibited the capability of increasing the detection efficacy and specificity of AFP for HCC and AFP-negative HCC. The incidence of LC and HCC in the respective logistic regression model showed a negative correlation with the serum ApoB/ApoA1 ratio in CHB patients (P < 0.05). After all confounding factors covered in this study were regulated, the result of the restricted cubic spline analysis suggested that in a certain range, serum ApoB/ApoA1 ratio showed an inverse correlation with the prevalence of LC or HCC in CHB patients. Serum ApoB/ApoA1 ratio in CHB patients may be conducive to identifying high-risk patients for HCC or LC, such that LC and HCC can be early diagnosed and treated.

High normal alanine aminotransferase is an indicator for better response to antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B

Background

Evidence shows people living with CHB even with a normal ALT (40U/L as threshold) suffer histological disease and there is still little research to evaluate the potential benefit of antiviral benefits in them.

Methods

We retrospectively examined 1352 patients who underwent liver biopsy from 2017 to 2021 and then obtained their 1-year follow-up data to analyze.

Results

ALT levels were categorized into high and low, with thresholds set at >29 for males and >15 for females through Youden's Index. The high normal ALT group showed significant histological disease at baseline (56.43% vs 43.82%, p< 0.001), and better HBV DNA clearance from treatment using PSM (p=0.005). Similar results were obtained using 2016 AASLD high normals (male >30, female >19). Further multivariate logistic analysis showed that high normal ALT (both criterias) was an independent predictor of treatment (OR 1.993, 95% CI 1.115-3.560, p=0.020; OR 2.000, 95% CI 1.055-3.793, p=0.034) Both of the models had higher AUC compared with current scoring system, and there was no obvious difference between the two models (AUC:0.8840 vs 0.8835).

Conclusion

Male >30 or female >19 and Male >29 or female>15 are suggested to be better thresholds for normal ALT. Having a high normal ALT in CHB provides a potential benefit in antiviral therapy.

SIMarker: Cellular similarity detection and its application to diagnosis and prognosis of liver cancer

BACKGROUND

The emergence of single-cell technology offers a unique opportunity to explore cellular similarity and heterogeneity between precancerous diseases and solid tumors. However, there is lacking a systematic study for identifying and characterizing similarities at single-cell resolution.

METHODS

We developed SIMarker, a computational framework to detect cellular similarities between precancerous diseases and solid tumors based on gene expression at single-cell resolution. Taking hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as a case study, we quantified the cellular and molecular connections between HCC and cirrhosis. Core analysis modules of SIMarker is publicly available at https://github.com/xmuhuanglab/SIMarker ("SIM" means "similarity" and "Marker" means "biomarkers).

RESULTS

We found PGA5+ hepatocytes in HCC showed cirrhosis-like characteristics, including similar transcriptional programs and gene regulatory networks. Consequently, the genes constituting the gene expression program of these cirrhosis-like subpopulations were designated as cirrhosis-like signatures (CLS). Strikingly, our utilization of CLS enabled the development of diagnosis and prognosis biomarkers based on within-sample relative expression orderings of gene pairs. These biomarkers achieved high precision and concordance compared with previous studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work provides a systematic method to investigate the clinical translational significance of cellular similarities between HCC and cirrhosis, which opens avenues for identifying similar paradigms in other categories of cancers and diseases.

Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy

No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.

A prediction nomogram for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving antiviral therapy from real-world data.

METHODS

The nomogram was established based on a real-world retrospective study of 764 patients with HBV from October 2008 to July 2020. A predictive model for the incidence of HCC was developed by multivariable Cox regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared to three current commonly used predictive models.

RESULTS

A total of 764 patients with HBV were recruited for this study. Age, family history of HCC, alcohol consumption, and Aspartate aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) were all independent risk predictors of HCC in CHB patients. The constructed nomogram had good discrimination with a C-index of 0.811. The calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram. Three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) with significantly different prognoses were identified (p < 0.001). The model's performance was significantly better than that of other risk models.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram was superior in predicting HCC risk among CHB patients who received antiviral treatment. The model can be utilized in clinical practice to aid decision-making on the strategy of long-term HCC surveillance, especially for moderate- and high-risk patients.

Analysis of primary care electronic health record data of people living with hepatitis B virus: infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk associated with socio-economic deprivation

OBJECTIVES

We set out to characterise chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the primary care population in England and investigate risk factors for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We identified 8039 individuals with CHB in individuals aged ≥18 years between 1999 and 2019 in the English primary care database QResearch. HCC risk factors were investigated using Cox proportional hazards modelling.

RESULTS

Most of those with a record of CHB were males (60%) of non-White ethnicity (>70%), and a high proportion were in the most deprived Townsend deprivation quintile (44%). Among 7029 individuals with longitudinal data, 161 HCC cases occurred. Increased HCC hazards were significantly associated with male sex (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.92-5.23), in the fifth deprivation quintile as compared to the third quintile (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.01-2.84), with older age (for age groups 56-65 and ≥66 years, compared to 26-35 years, aHRs 2.82 [95% CI 1.45-5.46] and 3.76 [95% CI 1.79-7.9], respectively), Caribbean ethnicity (aHR 3.32, 95% CI 1.43-7.71, compared to White ethnicity), ascites (aHR 3.15, 95% CI 1.30-7.67), cirrhosis (aHR 6.55, 95% CI 4.57-9.38) and peptic ulcer disease (aHR 2.26, 95% CI 1.45-3.51).

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting interventions and HCC surveillance at vulnerable groups is essential to improve CHB outcomes and to support progress towards international goals for the elimination of hepatitis infection as a public health threat.

PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection.

METHODS

This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n = 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n = 1,218) were performed.

RESULTS

Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.

Risk Factors and Comorbidities Associated With Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

Chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CHBVI) is a major public health problem affecting about 296 million people worldwide. HBV infects the liver, and when it becomes chronic, may cause cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of our study was to identify the risk factors and comorbid medical conditions that were associated with HCC in patients who had CHBVI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective electronic medical record review of adult patients diagnosed with CHBVI, who presented to our primary care office between October 1, 2017 and October 21, 2022. Selected variables in patients with CHBVI with HCC (HCC group) were compared to those without HCC (NoHCC group).

RESULTS

Among 125 patients with CHBVI, 24% had HCC and 76% did not have HCC. There were higher frequencies of association of certain comorbidities in the HCC group compared to NoHCC group, such as anemia (63.3% vs 26.3%; P < .001), ascites (53.3% vs 1.1%; P < .001), portal hypertension (43.3% vs 0.0%; P < .001), chronic kidney disease (40.0% vs 13.7%; P = .002), and HCV coinfection (13.3% vs 7.4%; P < .001). The logistic regression model showed increased odds of HCC for each year of increase in age (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.11; P = .014), and increased odds in men (OR = 5.96, 95% CI = 1.71-20.73; P = .005). Although Asians represented the racial majority in both the groups, there was no significant difference in the race distribution between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

In patients with CHBVI, increasing age and male sex are factors associated with increased odds of having HCC. Patients with CHBVI and HCC have higher frequencies of association of tobacco use, recreational drug use, anemia, ascites, portal hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and co-infection with HCV.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Five-year on-treatment variables-based PPACS model predicts subsequent hepatocellular carcinoma in entecavir/tenofovir-treated patients

Considering the lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving long-term potent antiviral therapy, models predicting HCC after 5 years of therapy are needed. We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study to construct and validate a model predicting HCC after 5 years of entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TFV) therapy for CHB. The endpoint was HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. Information on age, sex, liver cirrhosis (assessed by diagnosis code and confirmed by clinical findings) and type of antiviral agent was obtained at baseline (initiation of ETV/TFV). Laboratory values were collected at baseline and 5 years. Risk factors for HCC were identified in the training set and the final prediction model was validated using the test set. Among 7542 patients, 345 (4.6%) developed HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy was increased by 4-fold in patients with liver cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis at baseline. Furthermore, Platelet counts and Prothrombin time at 5 years, Age at baseline and Sex were associated with risk of HCC and were incorporated into a prediction model, PPACS. PPACS showed a good performance with a time-dependent area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.85) at 8-year of ETV/TFV therapy, a Brier score of 0.031 and an integrated Brier score of 0.006 in the test set. In conclusion, the PPACS model provides a reliable assessment of HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy (https://ppacs.shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/).

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.

Current Status and Analysis of Machine Learning in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common tumor. Although the diagnosis and treatment of HCC have made great progress, the overall prognosis remains poor. As the core component of artificial intelligence, machine learning (ML) has developed rapidly in the past decade. In particular, ML has become widely used in the medical field, and it has helped in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Different algorithms of ML have different roles in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. This article reviews recent research, explains the application of different ML models in HCC, and provides suggestions for follow-up research.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Hepatitis: Advanced Diagnosis and Management with a Focus on the Prevention of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Though the world-wide hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination program has been well completed for almost thirty years in many nations, almost HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs in unvaccinated middle-aged and elderly adults. Apparently, treating 80% of qualified subjects could decrease HBV-related mortality by 65% in a short period. Nevertheless, globally, only 2.2% of CHB patients undergo antiviral therapy. The HBV markers related to HCC occurrence and prevention are as follows: the HCC risk is the highest at a baseline of HBV DNA of 6-7 log copies/mL, and it is the lowest at a baseline of an HBV DNA level of >8 log copies/mL and ≤4 log copies/mL (parabolic, and not linear pattern). The titer of an HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg) reflecting the amount of HBV covalently closed circular DNA (ccc DNA) in the liver is related to HCC occurrence. The seroclearance of HBs antigen (HBsAg) is more crucial than HBV DNA negativity for the prevention of HCC. In terms of the secondary prevention of hepatitis B-related HCC involving antiviral therapies with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs), unsolved issues include the definition of the immune-tolerant phase; the optimal time for starting antiviral therapies with NAs; the limits of increased aminotransferase (ALT) levels as criteria for therapy in CHB patients; the normalization of ALT levels with NAs and the relation to the risk of HCC; and the relation between serum HBV levels and the risk of HCC. Moreover, the first-line therapy with NAs including entecavir (ETV), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) remains to be clarified. Discussed here, therefore, are the recent findings of HBV markers related to HCC occurrence and prevention, unsolved issues, and the current secondary antiviral therapy for the prevention of HBV-related HCC.

Prevalence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Hepatitis B Population within Southeast Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 39,050 Participants

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a significant complication of hepatitis B and still poses a global public health concern. This systematic review and meta-analysis provide adequate details on the prevalence of HCC in the HBV population within Southeast Asian countries.

METHOD

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) criteria, a thorough search for literature discussing the prevalence of HCC in the HBV population within southeast Asia was performed. Eligible studies were subjected to a meta-analysis utilising a DerSimonian and Laird approach and a random effect model. A protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023423953).

RESULT

Our study meticulously recovered 41 articles from seven countries in Southeast Asia, namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. A total of 39,050 HBV patients and 7479 HCC cases in southeast Asia were analysed. The pooled prevalence of HCC in HBV cases within southeast Asia was 45.8% (95% CI, 34.3-57.8%, I2 = 99.51%, p < 0.001). Singapore (62.5%, CI: 42.4-79.1) had the highest pooled prevalence of HCC in the HBV population compared to Vietnam, with the lowest estimate (22.4%, CI: 9.9-44.9). There was a drop in the pooled prevalence of HCC in HBV from 2016 until now (37.6%, CI: 19.2-60.5).

CONCLUSION

The findings of this review reveal a high pooled prevalence of HCC in the HBV population and therefore stir the need for routine screening, management, and surveillance.

Prognostic role of computed tomography analysis using deep learning algorithm in patients with chronic hepatitis B viral infection

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is paramount for effective management. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) analysis using deep learning algorithms in patients with CHB.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2,169 patients with CHB without hepatic decompensation who underwent contrast-enhanced abdominal CT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance between January 2005 and June 2016. Liver and spleen volumes and body composition measurements including subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and skeletal muscle indices were acquired from CT images using deep learning-based fully automated organ segmentation algorithms. We assessed the significant predictors of HCC, hepatic decompensation, diabetes mellitus (DM), and overall survival (OS) using Cox proportional hazard analyses.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 103.0 months, HCC (n=134, 6.2%), hepatic decompensation (n=103, 4.7%), DM (n=432, 19.9%), and death (n=120, 5.5%) occurred. According to the multivariate analysis, standardized spleen volume significantly predicted HCC development (hazard ratio [HR]=1.01, P=0.025), along with age, sex, albumin and platelet count. Standardized spleen volume (HR=1.01, P<0.001) and VAT index (HR=0.98, P=0.004) were significantly associated with hepatic decompensation along with age and albumin. Furthermore, VAT index (HR=1.01, P=0.001) and standardized spleen volume (HR=1.01, P=0.001) were significant predictors for DM, along with sex, age, and albumin. SAT index (HR=0.99, P=0.004) was significantly associated with OS, along with age, albumin, and MELD.

CONCLUSION

Deep learning-based automatically measured spleen volume, VAT, and SAT indices may provide various prognostic information in patients with CHB.

Ginsenosides in cancer: Targeting cell cycle arrest and apoptosis

Despite the existence of extensive clinical research and novel therapeutic treatments, cancer remains undefeated and the significant cause of death worldwide. Cancer is a disease in which growth of cells goes out of control, being also able to invade other parts of the body. Cellular division is strictly controlled by multiple checkpoints like G1/S and G2/M which, when dysregulated, lead to uncontrollable cell division. The current remedies which are being utilized to combat cancer are monoclonal antibodies, chemotherapy, cryoablation, and bone marrow transplant etc. and these have also been greatly disheartening because of their serious adverse effects like hypotension, neuropathy, necrosis, leukemia relapse and many more. Bioactive compounds derived from natural products have marked the history of the development of novel drug therapies against cancer among which ginsenosides have no peer as they target several signaling pathways, which when abnormally regulated, lead to cancer. Substantial research has reported that ginsenosides like Rb1, Rb2, Rb3, Rc, Rd, Rg3, Rh2 etc. can prevent and treat cancer by targeting different pathways and molecules by induction of autophagy, neutralizing ROS, induction of cancerous cell death by controlling the p53 pathway, modulation of miRNAs by decreasing Smad2 expression, regulating Bcl-2 expression by normalizing the NF-Kb pathway, inhibition of inflammatory pathways by decreasing the production of cytokines like IL-8, causing cell cycle arrest by restricting cyclin E1 and CDC2, and induction of apoptosis during malignancy by decreasing β-catenin levels etc. In this review, we have analyzed the anti-cancer therapeutic potential of various ginsenoside compounds in order to consider their possible use in new strategies in the fight against cancer.

Kinetics of HBcrAg and HBsAg using highly sensitive iTACT assays in chronic hepatitis B patients with HBsAg seroclearance

Two novel assays have been developed, iTACT-hepatitis B core-related antigen (iTACT-HBcrAg) and iTACT-hepatitis B surface antigen (iTACT-HBsAg) assays. We investigated the longitudinal profiles of iTACT-HBcrAg- and -HBsAg in patients with HBsAg seroclearance (SC) (<0.05 IU/mL). This study comprises 60 HBV-infected patients with HBsAg SC, 27 in chronic hepatitis/liver cirrhosis (CH/LC) group and 33 in inactive carrier (IC) group. Longitudinal profiles of iTACT-HBcrAg and -HBsAg were examined using stored serum samples. The median period from HBsAg SC to iTACT-HBcrAg loss or to the last observation was longer in the CH/LC group than the IC group (39 vs. -3 months, p = 0.004), but this tendency was not observed in that by iTACT-HBsAg. Comparing the times of iTACT-HBcrAg and -HBsAg loss, the rate of patients who lost HBcrAg first was significantly higher in the IC group (p = 0.008). The cumulative incidence rate of iTACT-HBcrAg loss after HBsAg SC was higher in the IC group that the CH/LC group (p = 0.002). Patients in the CH/LC group had higher rates of detectable iTACT-HBcrAg than those in the IC group after HBsAg SC, suggesting that the presence of HBcrAg possibly contribute to the progression of chronic hepatitis B.

FIB‑4 index and serum α‑fetoprotein are useful predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis B patients with nucleos(t)ide analogs therapy

Current antiviral therapies cannot achieve eradication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and can reduce but not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development by analyzing nucleoside analogue (NA)-treated patients as a retrospective cohort using fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4 index) as a non-invasive fibrosis marker. A total of 260 patients with HBV receiving NAs without a history of HCC between January 2001 and January 2021 were included in the present study. The incidence of HCC in patients with HBV during NA therapy and the factors contributing to HCC occurrence were identified using clinical characteristics and blood test results. Among the 260 patients, 40 patients (15.4%) developed HCC. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR), 1.03; P=0.045], male sex (HR, 3.14; P<0.01) and FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment <1.95 (HR, 4.35; P<0.01) correlated with the incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment >1.95 was significantly higher compared with that in patients with FIB-4 index ≤1.95 (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis in patients in which serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at 6 months after NA treatment was measured showed that FIB-4 index >1.95 (HR, 8.27; P=0.014) and serum AFP level >4 ng/ml (HR, 4.26; P=0.033) contributed to HCC occurrence. FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment and serum AFP levels at 6 months after NA treatment were predictors for the development of HCC in patients with HBV during NA treatment. Further study of hepatocarcinogenesis during NA with a longer follow-up period and larger numbers of participants is required.

HCC prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Our study aimed to compare the predictive performance of different hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir, including discrimination, calibration, negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk, and proportion of low-risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature research in PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science before January 13, 2022. The predictive performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration index, negative predictive value, and the proportion in low-risk. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses of discrimination and calibration were conducted. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the results.

RESULTS

We identified ten prediction models in 23 studies. The pooled 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUROC varied from 0.72 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.83, and 0.76 to 0.86, respectively. REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and HCC-RESCUE achieved the best discrimination. HCC-RESCUE, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B overestimated HCC development, whereas mREACH-B, AASL-HCC, REAL-B, CAMD, CAGE-B, SAGE-B, and aMAP underestimated it. All models were able to identify people with a low risk of HCC accurately. HCC-RESCUE and aMAP recognized over half of the population as low-risk. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

Considering the predictive performance of all four aspects, we suggest that HCC-RESCUE was the best model to utilize in clinical practice, especially in primary care and low-income areas. To confirm our findings, further validation studies with the above four components were required.

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT).

METHODS

Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

Clinical Distribution Characteristics and Identification for Significant Liver Inflammation of Patients in Chronic Hepatitis B with Indeterminate Phase

Aim

In clinical practice, a considerable proportion of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who do not conform to any immune status are considered to be in the "indeterminate phase". In this study, we aim to study the clinical distribution characteristics and identification of significant liver inflammation in patients in indeterminate phase.

Methods

This study retrospectively analyze clinical data of 1226 patients with CHB at two medical centers in Zhejiang province. According to American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) 2018 hepatitis B guidance, CHB can be divided into four phases: immune-tolerant phase, HBeAg-positive immune active phase, inactive phase, and HBeAg-negative immune active phase. Liver inflammation grade was evaluated using the Scheuer scoring system, and significant liver inflammation was defined as G ≥ 2.

Results

The distribution of different immune status was as follows: 259 (21.1%) patients in immune-tolerant phase, 365 (29.8%) patients in HBeAg-positive immune active phase, 128 (10.4%) patients in inactive phase, and 33 (2.7%) patients in HBeAg-negative immune active phase. However, 441 (36.0%) patients did not meet any of the above immune phases, which were defined as indeterminate phase. Significant liver inflammation (54.1%) was common in CHB patients with indeterminate phase. Prothrombin time (PT), platelet count (PLT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA were associated with significant inflammation.

Conclusions

The results of this study showed that about 36.0% of patients were divided into indeterminate phase. The proportion of patients with significant inflammation in indeterminate phase and liver inflammation becomes more severe with aggravation of fibrosis stage. PT, PLT, ALT, and HBV-DNA may have a significant correlation with severe inflammation and prognosis of CHB.

Risk prediction algorithms in guiding antiviral therapy initiation among patients with chronic hepatitis B in Thailand: an economic evaluation and budget impact analysis

OBJECTIVE

Several risk prediction algorithms have been developed to guide antiviral therapy initiation among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of three risk prediction algorithms among patients with CHB in Thailand.

METHODS

A decision tree with a Markov model was constructed. Three risk prediction algorithms were compared with current practices including HePAA, TREAT-B and REACH-B. PubMed was searched from its inception to December 2022 to identify inputs. Tenofovir alafenamide and best supportive care were selected for antiviral-eligible patients, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were calculated.

RESULTS

Our base case analysis showed that HePAA and REACH-B could provide better QALY (0.098 for HePAA and 0.921 for REACH-B) with decreased total healthcare costs (-10909 THB for HePAA and -8,637 THB for REACH-B). TREAT-B provided worse QALY (-0.144) with increased total healthcare costs (10,435 THB). The budget impacts for HePAA and REACH-B were 387 million THB and 3,653 million THB, respectively.

CONCLUSION

HePAA and REACH-B algorithms are cost-effective in guiding antiviral therapy initiation. REACH-B is the most cost-effective option, but has a high budget impact. Policymakers should consider both cost-effectiveness and budget impact findings when deciding which algorithm should be implemented.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Finite Periods of Antiviral Therapy

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most severe complications in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. HCC can still develop in patients with chronic HBV (CHB) infection undergoing antiviral therapy. Several effective scoring systems for the prediction of HCC risk in CHB patients have been established. However, very few of them are designed for CHB patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) therapy. Furthermore, none are available for HCC risk prediction in CHB patients receiving finite periods of antiviral therapy.

METHODS

This study enrolled 790 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB infection who had visited our liver clinics from 2008 to 2012 for pretreatment assessment before receiving antiviral therapies. The treatments were provided at finite periods according to the National Health Insurance Policy in Taiwan. The last follow-up date was 31 December 2021. We analyzed the virological and clinical factors in these 790 CHB patients receiving finite periods of NA treatments and identified the most significant risk factors for HCC to establish a novel predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups.

RESULTS

Our predictive scoring system included five independent variables: genotype C (adjusted HR [aHR] = 2.23), NA-withdraw-related hepatitis relapse (aHR = 6.96), male (aHR = 4.19), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 11.14), and T1768A core promoter mutation (aHR = 3.21). This model revealed significant differences in HCC incidence among the three risk groups. The 5-year cumulative HCC risk significantly differed among the three risk groups (low risk: 1.33%, moderate risk: 4.99%, and high risk: 17.46%), with log-rank test p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Our predictive scoring system is a promising tool for the prediction of HCC in CHB patients receiving finite NA treatments. Genotype C, NA-withdraw-related hepatitis relapse, male gender, liver cirrhosis, and the T1768A HBV core promoter mutation were significant independent risk factors.

Mitochondrial stress in advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis associated with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes oxidative stress (OS) and alters mitochondria in experimental models. Our goal was to investigate whether HBV might alter liver mitochondria also in humans, and the resulting mitochondrial stress might account for the progression of fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The study included 146 treatment-naïve CHB mono-infected patients. Patients with CHB and advanced fibrosis (AF) or cirrhosis (F3-F4) were compared to patients with no/mild-moderate fibrosis (F0-F2). Patients with CHB were further compared to patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC; n = 33), nonalcoholic steatohepatatis (NASH; n = 12), and healthy controls ( n = 24). We detected oxidative damage to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), including mtDNA strand beaks, and identified multiple mtDNA deletions in patients with F3-F4 as compared to patients with F0-F2. Alterations in mitochondrial function, mitochondrial unfolded protein response, biogenesis, mitophagy, and liver inflammation were observed in patients with AF or cirrhosis associated with CHB, CHC, and NASH. In vitro , significant increases of the mitochondrial formation of superoxide and peroxynitrite as well as mtDNA damage, nitration of the mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes, and impairment of complex I occurred in HepG2 cells replicating HBV or transiently expressing hepatitits B virus X protein. mtDNA damage and complex I impairment were prevented with the superoxide-scavenging Mito-Tempo or with inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS)-specific inhibitor 1400 W.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results emphasized the importance of mitochondrial OS, mtDNA damage, and associated alterations in mitochondrial function and dynamics in AF or cirrhosis in CHB and NASH. Mitochondria might be a target in drug development to stop fibrosis progression.

Oncogenic Viruses-Encoded microRNAs and Their Role in the Progression of Cancer: Emerging Targets for Antiviral and Anticancer Therapies

Approximately 20% of all cases of human cancer are caused by viral infections. Although a great number of viruses are capable of causing a wide range of tumors in animals, only seven of these viruses have been linked to human malignancies and are presently classified as oncogenic viruses. These include the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV), human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8), and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1). Some other viruses, such as the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are associated with highly oncogenic activities. It is possible that virally encoded microRNAs (miRNAs), which are ideal non-immunogenic tools for viruses, play a significant role in carcinogenic processes. Both virus-derived microRNAs (v-miRNAs) and host-derived microRNAs (host miRNAs) can influence the expression of various host-derived and virus-derived genes. The current literature review begins with an explanation of how viral infections might exert their oncogenic properties in human neoplasms, and then goes on to discuss the impact of diverse viral infections on the advancement of several types of malignancies via the expression of v-miRNAs. Finally, the role of new anti-oncoviral therapies that could target these neoplasms is discussed.

Significant histological disease of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection in the grey zone

BACKGROUND

Many patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) do not meet the definitions of the traditional natural phases and are classified as being in the grey zone (GZ).

AIMS

To investigate liver histology, and to establish a management strategy for patients with CHB in the GZ.

METHODS

This study included 1043 patients with CHB who underwent liver biopsy. Phases of natural history were determined according to the AASLD 2018 hepatitis B guidance. CHB patients in the GZ were divided into HBeAg-positive, normal ALT and HBV DNA ≤10⁶  IU/ml (GZ-A); HBeAg-positive, elevated ALT and HBV DNA ≤2 × 10⁴  IU/ml (GZ-B); HBeAg-negative, normal ALT and HBV DNA ≥2 × 10³  IU/ml (GZ-C) and HBeAg-negative, elevated ALT and HBV DNA ≤2 × 10³  IU/ml (GZ-D). Significant histological disease was defined as liver inflammation ≥G2 and/or liver fibrosis ≥S2.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty two (23.2%) patients were in the GZ. Approximately 72.7% had significant histological disease. HBeAg-positive GZ CHB patients had a higher proportion of significant histological disease than HBeAg-negative GZ patients (91.1% vs. 68.5%, p = 0.002). GZ-D (42.6%) was the dominant category, followed by GZ-C (38.8%), GZ-A (10.3%) and GZ-B (8.3%). The highest proportion of significant histological disease was observed patients in GZ-B (100.0%), followed by GZ-A (84.0%), GZ-D (69.9%) and GZ-C (67.0%). Prothrombin time (PT) was an independent risk factor of significant histological disease in the HBeAg-negative GZ.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 70% of GZ CHB patients had significant histological disease. We recommend antiviral treatment for HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative GZ CHB patients with high PT.

Prediction Model with HLA-A*33:03 Reveals Number of Days to Develop Liver Cancer from Blood Test

The development of liver cancer in patients with hepatitis B is a major problem, and several models have been reported to predict the development of liver cancer. However, no predictive model involving human genetic factors has been reported to date. For the items incorporated in the prediction model reported so far, we selected items that were significant in predicting liver carcinogenesis in Japanese patients with hepatitis B and constructed a prediction model of liver carcinogenesis by the Cox proportional hazard model with the addition of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genotypes. The model, which included four items-sex, age at the time of examination, alpha-fetoprotein level (log₁₀AFP) and presence or absence of HLA-A*33:03-revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.862 for HCC prediction within 1 year and an AUROC of 0.863 within 3 years. A 1000 repeated validation test resulted in a C-index of 0.75 or higher, or sensitivity of 0.70 or higher, indicating that this predictive model can distinguish those at high risk of developing liver cancer within a few years with high accuracy. The prediction model constructed in this study, which can distinguish between chronic hepatitis B patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early and those who develop HCC late or not, is clinically meaningful.

Machine learning-based model for predicting the esophagogastric variceal bleeding risk in liver cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis patients are at risk for esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB). Herein, we aimed to estimate the EGVB risk in patients with liver cirrhosis using an artificial neural network (ANN).

METHODS

We included 999 liver cirrhosis patients hospitalized at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University in the training cohort and 101 patients from Shuguang Hospital in the validation cohort. The factors independently affecting EGVB occurrence were determined via univariate analysis and used to develop an ANN model.

RESULTS

The 1-year cumulative EGVB incidence rates were 11.9 and 11.9% in the training and validation groups, respectively. A total of 12 independent risk factors, including gender, drinking and smoking history, decompensation, ascites, location and size of varices, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT), hematocrit (HCT) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) levels as well as red blood cell (RBC) count were evaluated and used to establish the ANN model, which estimated the 1-year EGVB risk. The ANN model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.959, which was significantly higher than the AUC for the North Italian Endoscopic Club (NIEC) (0.669) and revised North Italian Endoscopic Club (Rev-NIEC) indices (0.725) (all P <  0.001). Decision curve analyses revealed improved net benefits of the ANN compared to the NIEC and Rev-NIEC indices.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANN model accurately predicted the 1-year risk for EGVB in liver cirrhosis patients and might be used as a basis for risk-based EGVB surveillance strategies.

Glycemic burden and the risk of adverse hepatic outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is common among patients with chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) and has been associated with increased risk of carcinogenesis, including HCC. We investigated factors associated with HCC and fibrosis progression among patients with CHB with T2D (CHB+T2D).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Chinese patients with CHB were prospectively recruited for the incidence of HCC and fibrosis progression defined by transient elastography. Among patients with CHB+T2D, glycemic control was assessed by mean glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and HbA1c variability determined using HbA1c measurements in the 5 years preceding recruitment. A total of 2330 patients with CHB were recruited (mean age 54.6 ±11.8 years old, 55.5% male, 57.9% antiviral-treated), with 671 (28.8%) having CHB+T2D (mean T2D duration 7.2 ± 4.6 years, mean HbA1c 7.2 ± 0.9%). T2D was independently associated with HCC (HR 2.080, 95% CI 1.343-3.222) and fibrosis progression (OR 4.305, 95% CI 3.416-5.424) in the overall cohort. In patients with CHB+T2D, factors reflecting glycemic burden (T2D duration [HR 1.107, 95% CI 1.023-1.198]), mean HbA1c (HR 1.851, 95% CI 1.026-3.339), time reaching target HbA1c (HbA1c-TRT; HR 0.978, 95% CI 0.957-0.999), liver stiffness (HR 1.041-1.043), and smoking (HR 2.726-3.344) were independently associated with HCC (all p < 0.05), but not HbA1c variability or controlled attenuation parameter. The same glycemic burden-related factors (T2D duration, mean HbA1c, and HbA1c-TRT), in addition to baseline fasting glucose, baseline HbA1c, AST and antiviral therapy, were independently associated with fibrosis progression at 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

High glycemic burden was associated with HCC development and fibrosis progression among patients with CHB+T2D, highlighting the importance of glycemic control in reducing liver-related complications.

Transcriptomic Analysis of Hepatitis B Infected Liver for Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular cancer (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, and chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CHB) has been a major risk factor for HCC development. The pathogenesis of HBV-related HCC has been a major focus revealing the interplay of a multitude of intracellular signaling pathways, yet the precise mechanisms and their implementations to clinical practice remain to be elucidated. This study utilizes publicly available transcriptomic data from the livers of CHB patients in order to identify a population with a higher risk of malignant transformation. We report the identification of a novel list of genes (PCM1) which can generate clear transcriptomic sub-groups among HBV-infected livers. PCM1 includes genes related to cell cycle activity and liver cancer development. In addition, markers of inflammation, M1 macrophages and gamma delta T cell infiltration are present within the signature. Genes within PCM1 are also able to differentiate HCC from normal liver, and some genes within the signature are associated with poor prognosis of HCC at the mRNA level. The analysis of the immunohistochemical stainings validated that proteins coded by a group of PCM1 genes were overexpressed in liver cancer, while minimal or no expression was detected in normal liver. Altogether, our findings suggest that PCM1 can be developed into a clinically applicable method to identify CHB patients with a higher risk of HCC development.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline and 1 year after initiation of nucleos(t)ide analog therapy for chronic hepatitis B

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) cannot completely suppress the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development in naïve CHB patients treated with current NA. Patients receiving NA (n = 905) were recruited retrospectively from the 17 hospitals of the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group. All treatment-naïve patients had been receiving current NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. We analyzed the accuracy of predictive risk score using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was significantly improved by NA therapy (-0.171 ± 0.396; p < 0.001 at Week 48). A total of 72 (8.0%) patients developed HCC over a median follow-up of 6.2 (1.03-15.7) years. An independent predictive factor of HCC development was older age, cirrhosis, lower platelet counts at baseline and ALBI score, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 1 year after NA therapy according to multivariate analysis. The accuracy was assessed using the PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, aMAP, APA-B, and REAL-B scores that included these factors. Discrimination was generally acceptable for these models. aMAP and REAL-B demonstrated high discrimination with 0.866/0.862 and 0.833/0.859 for 3- and 5-year prediction from the status of 1 year after NA therapy, respectively. Baseline age and platelet count, as well as ALBI and AFP one year after NA, were useful for stratifying carcinogenesis risk. The aMAP and REAL-B scores were validated with high accuracy in Japanese CHB patients.

Wnt signaling in liver regeneration, disease, and cancer

The liver exhibits the highest recovery rate from acute injuries. However, in chronic liver disease, the long-term loss of hepatocytes often leads to adverse consequences such as fibrosis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. The Wnt signaling plays a pivotal role in both liver regeneration and tumorigenesis. Therefore, manipulating the Wnt signaling has become an attractive approach to treating liver disease, including cancer. Nonetheless, given the crucial roles of Wnt signaling in physiological processes, blocking Wnt signaling can also cause several adverse effects. Recent studies have identified cancer-specific regulators of Wnt signaling, which would overcome the limitation of Wnt signaling target approaches. In this review, we discussed the role of Wnt signaling in liver regeneration, precancerous lesion, and liver cancer. Furthermore, we summarized the basic and clinical approaches of Wnt signaling blockade and proposed the therapeutic prospects of cancer-specific Wnt signaling blockade for liver cancer treatment.

Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis

This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.