C-reactive protein predicts short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis

A randomized study of ceftriaxone for the prevention of infections in hospitalized patients with advanced cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Infections frequently complicate hospital admission among patients with cirrhosis and are associated with adverse outcomes. In specific settings, administration of prophylactic antibiotics has been shown to improve outcomes. In this pilot study, we aimed to assess the feasibility of a randomized study of whether prophylactic ceftriaxone (CTX), administered to hospitalized patients with advanced cirrhosis (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium ≥ 18) without known infection, could reduce the incidence of infection. We also sought to determine whether we could identify patients most likely to benefit through the use of clinical and laboratory parameters.

METHODS

Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium ≥ 18 and no known infection after evaluation, were randomly assigned in a double-blinded fashion to receive either CTX 1 gr/day or placebo for up to 7 days. Subjects were monitored for incident infection and other outcomes of interest, including adverse reactions such as the development of C. difficile infection. Biomarkers of interest, including C-reactive protein and procalcitonin, were measured before initiation of treatment.

RESULTS

Thirty subjects were enrolled and received CTX or placebo (15 subjects each) per protocol. There were no observed statistically significant differences between groups in incidence of infection, mortality, length of stay, or key laboratory parameters, including C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. Adverse events related to treatment were rare and clinically of minor significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, enrollment of subjects proved feasible, and results from this pilot study, while inadequate for confirmation of the potential efficacy of CTX, provide evidence of study feasibility for future, more definitive clinical trials.

Hepatorenal Syndrome-Novel Insights into Diagnostics and Treatment

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a disorder associated with cirrhosis and renal impairment, with portal hypertension as its major underlying cause. Moreover, HRS is the third most common cause of acute kidney injury, thus creating a major public health concern. This review summarizes the available information on the pathophysiological implications of HRS. We discuss pathogenesis associated with HRS. Mechanisms such as dysfunction of the circulatory system, bacterial infection, inflammation, impaired renal autoregulation, circulatory, and others, which have been identified as critical pathways for development of HRS, have become easier to diagnose in recent years. Additionally, relatively recently, renal dysfunction biomarkers have been found indicating renal injury, which are involved in the pathophysiology of HRS. This review also summarizes the available information on the management of HRS, focusing on vasoconstrictive drugs, renal replacement therapy, and liver transplant together with currently being investigated novel therapies. Analyzing new discoveries for the underlying causes of this condition assists the general research to improve understanding of the mechanism of pathophysiology and thus prevention of HRS.

Are Selected Cytokines and Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Load Predictors of Hepatological Complications of Epstein-Barr Virus Infection in Children?

The aim of the study was to evaluate tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), soluble intracellular adhesion molecules 1 (s-ICAM-1) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA load levels as predictors of hepatological complications of EBV infection in children. The study group consisted of 54 children aged one to eighteen years, who were hospitalised from 1 December 2018 to 31 December 2020 in the Department of Paediatrics, Infectious Diseases and Hepatology and who had hepatological complications in the course of serologically and molecularly confirmed EBV infection. It was shown that IL-6, TNF-α, and s-ICAM-1 concentrations were the highest in patients with hepatitis and biliary pole damage. Higher EBV DNA viremia positively correlated with increased C-reactive protein (CRP) and TNF-α levels and increased leukocyte, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts. Increases in lymphocyte counts and TNF-α concentrations were observed along with increases in gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGTP) activity. Increased concentrations of IL-6, TNF-α, and s-ICAM-1 may indicate the risk of hepatitis with concomitant biliary pole damage during EBV infection.

EASIX Is an Accurate and Easily Available Prognostic Score in Critically Ill Patients with Advanced Liver Disease

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high mortality. Objective prognostic scores are important for treatment decisions. EASIX (Endothelial Activation and Stress Index) is a simple biomarker consisting of LDH, platelets, and creatinine, reflecting endothelial dysfunction after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Considering endothelial dysfunction in the pathogenesis of ACLF, this study aimed to test the discriminative ability of EASIX in advanced liver disease. We retrospectively analysed the prognostic potential of EASIX to predict 28-day and 3-month mortality in a total of 188 liver cirrhotic patients requiring treatment at the intensive care unit. We evaluated the ability of EASIX to rule out early infections and predict the need for hemodialysis. EASIX performed moderately better than established scores in predicting 28-day mortality (AUC = 0.771) and was nearly equivalent (AUC = 0.791) to SOFA and APACHE-II in the prediction of 3-month mortality. Importantly, EASIX showed better diagnostic potential in ruling out clinically apparent infections than common proinflammatory markers (AUC = 0.861, p < 0.001) and showed suitable accuracy in predicting the need for hemodialysis (AUC = 0.833). EASIX is an accurate, objective and easily assessable biomarker for predicting mortality and complications in patients with advanced liver disease.

Rifaximin Improves Liver Functional Reserve by Regulating Systemic Inflammation

Rifaximin, a non-absorbable antibiotic, has been demonstrated to be effective against hepatic encephalopathy (HE); however, its efficacy on liver functional reserve remains unknown. Here, we evaluated the efficacy of rifaximin on the liver functional reserve and serological inflammation-based markers in patients with cirrhosis. A retrospective study was conducted on patients who received rifaximin for more than three months at our hospital between November 2016 and October 2021. The recurrence and grade of HE, serological ammonia levels, Child–Pugh score (CPS), and serological inflammation-based markers such as the neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR), platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and CRP to albumin ratio (CAR) were evaluated. The correlations between serological inflammation-based markers and liver functional reserve were evaluated. HE grades, serum ammonia levels, and inflammation-based markers significantly improved at three months compared with those at baseline. Patients with improved albumin levels showed significantly higher CRP improvement rates at both 3 and 12 months. Patients with an improvement in CAR at 3 months demonstrated a significant improvement in CPS at 12 months. Rifaximin improved the liver functional reserve in patients with cirrhosis. Improvements in inflammation-based markers, particularly CRP and albumin, may be involved in this process.

Factors predicting mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis visiting the emergency department

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is becoming a regional and healthcare burden. South Korea is one of the 10 countries with the highest age standardized prevalence of decompensated LC. Moreover, the proportion of patients with alcoholic LC is increasing and there has been no decrease in the incidence of decompensated alcoholic LC. Patients with decompensated LC frequently visit the emergency department (ED). Several studies focused on patients with LC who visited the ED, but the studies about alcoholic LC were limited. This study aimed to identify predicting factors for mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED. This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients who visited an ED between November 2017 and June 2021. The baseline characteristics, complications of LC, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and laboratory values including lactate were assessed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In total, 433 patients with alcoholic LC were included for analysis and the in hospital mortality rate was 15.9% (n = 69). Univariate regression analyses identified that MELD score, lactate, platelet, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, creatinine, albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) predicted in-hospital mortality. Multivariate regression analysis showed that MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP predicted the mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED.

C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio is a predictor of 1-year mortality following liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Considering the importance of the inflammatory status of recipients on outcomes following liver transplantation (LT), we investigated the association between C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) and one-year mortality following LT and compared it with other parameters reflecting patients' underlying inflammatory status.

METHODS

A total of 3,614 consecutive adult LT recipients were retrospectively evaluated. Prognostic parameters were analyzed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and subsequent cutoffs were derived. For survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards and Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The AUROC for CAR to predict one-year mortality after LT was 0.68 (0.65-0.72), which was the highest compared with other inflammatory parameters, with the best cutoff of 0.34. A CAR ≥ 0.34 was associated with a significantly higher one-year mortality rate (13.3% vs. 5.8 %, log-rank P < 0.001) and overall mortality rate (24.5% vs. 12.9%, log-rank P = 0.039). A CAR ≥ 0.34 was an independent predictor of one-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.40 [1.03-1.90], P = 0.031) and overall mortality (hazard ratio 1.39 [1.13-1.71], P = 0.002) after multivariable adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative CAR (≥ 0.34) was independently associated with a higher risk of one-year and overall mortality after LT. This may suggest that CAR, a simple and readily available biomarker, maybe a practical index that may assist in the risk stratification of liver transplantation outcomes.

Liver cirrhosis and immune dysfunction

Cirrhosis is end-stage liver disease resulting from various etiologies and is a common cause of death worldwide. The progression from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is due to multiple factors, including continuation of alcohol use or continued exposure to other toxins, an imbalance of the gut microbiota (dysbiosis), increased gut permeability and a disrupted immune response. This disrupted immune response is also named cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction, which is characterized by worsening systemic inflammation with concomitant immune paralysis, as liver disease deteriorates. This review highlights central immunologic events during the exacerbation of cirrhosis and characterizes the different immune cell populations involved therein.

Integration of Inflammation-Immune Factors to Build Prognostic Model Predictive of Prognosis and Minimal Residual Disease for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Tumor recurrence after hepatectomy is high for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and minimal residual disease (MRD) could be the underlying mechanism. A predictive model for recurrence and presence of MRD is needed.

Methods

Common inflammation-immune factors were reviewed and selected to construct novel models. The model consisting of preoperative aspartate aminotransferase, C-reactive protein, and lymphocyte count, named ACLR, was selected and evaluated for clinical significance.

Results

Among the nine novel inflammation-immune models, ACLR showed the highest accuracy for overall survival (OS) and time to recurrence (TTR). At the optimal cutoff value of 80, patients with high ACLR (> 80) had larger tumor size, higher Edmondson’s grade, more vascular invasion, advanced tumor stage, and poorer survival than those with low ACLR (≤ 80) in the training cohort (5-year OS: 43.3% vs. 80.1%, P < 0.0001; 5-year TTR: 74.9% vs. 45.3%, P < 0.0001). Multivariate Cox analysis identified ACLR as an independent risk factor for OS [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.22, P < 0.001] and TTR (HR = 2.36, P < 0.001). Such clinical significance and prognostic value were verified in validation cohort. ACLR outperformed extant models, showing the highest area under receiver operating characteristics curve for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS (0.737, 0.719, and 0.708) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year TTR (0.696, 0.650, and 0.629). High ACLR correlated with early recurrence (P < 0.001) and extremely early recurrence (P < 0.001). In patients with high ACLR, wide resection margin might confer survival benefit by decreasing recurrence (median TTR, 25.5 vs. 11.4 months; P = 0.037).

Conclusions

The novel inflammation-immune model, ACLR, could effectively predict prognosis, and the presence of MRD before hepatectomy and might guide the decision on resection margin for patients with HCC.

Prognostic value of von-Willebrand factor in patients with liver cirrhosis and its relation to other prognostic indicators

BACKGROUND

Von-Willebrand factor (vWF) disposes certain prognostic value in patients with liver cirrhosis, but its relation to other prognostic indicators has not been fully investigated.

AIM

To analyze the relation between vWF and other prognostic indicators in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate its prognostic value for mortality.

METHODS

This analytic prospective study was carried out in a tertiary center and initially enrolled 71 patients with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. It analyzed the relation between vWF and the stage of the disease and several inflammatory and prognostic indicators. The prospective analysis, performed on a sample of 63 patients, evaluated the association between the selected variables [vWF, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, vitamin D, activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, D-dimer concentration] and the survival time as well as their predictive value in terms of 3-mo, 6-mo and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

vWF was significantly higher in patients with higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (P = 0.0045), MELD group (P = 0.0057), ferritin group (P = 0.0278), and D-dimer concentration (P = 0.0232). vWF significantly correlated with D-dimer concentration, ferritin, CRP, International Normalized Ratio, and MELD, Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and CLIF-consortium organ failure (CLIF-C OF) scores. vWF, MELD score, and CRP were significantly associated with death and were significant predictors of 3-mo, 6-mo, and 1-year mortality. Each vWF unit significantly increased the probability for 3-mo mortality by 1.005 times (P = 0.008), for 6-mo mortality by 1.006 times (P = 0.005), and for 1-year mortality by 1.007 times (P = 0.002). There was no significant difference between the diagnostic performance of vWF and MELD score and also between vWF and CRP regarding the 3-mo, 6-mo, and 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

In patients with liver cirrhosis, vWF is significantly related to other prognostic indicators and is a significant predictor of 3-mo, 6-mo, and 1-year mortality similar to MELD score and CRP.

C-reactive protein in adult Samoans: Population variation and physiological correlates

OBJECTIVES

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been associated with adiposity and cardiometabolic disease risk in many populations but remains remarkably understudied in Pacific Islander populations. Here, we provide the first examination of correlates of CRP in adult Samoans (n = 108, ages 35-55 years) to test the hypotheses that CRP exhibits sex-dependent associations with measures of BMI, adiposity, and cardiometabolic disease risks.

METHODS

We analyzed associations between measures of adiposity (total fat mass, visceral fat mass, percent total body fat), body mass index (BMI), cardiometabolic risks, behaviors, demographics, and CRP. Unadjusted analyses of CRP were undertaken using Pearson's pairwise, and Spearman's rank correlations; one-way analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis tests assessed variables by CRP quartiles. Adjusted analyses of CRP correlates were examined using generalized linear regression.

RESULTS

Serum CRP ranged from 0.08 to 13.3 mg/L (median 1.4 mg/L) and varied significantly by sex t (108) = -2.47, p = .015. CRP was weakly to moderately associated with measures of adiposity and BMI (r and ρ ranged between 0.25 and 0.50, p < .05) and some cardiometabolic markers (including HbA1c, fasting insulin, and insulin resistance). CRP was significantly associated with percent body fat in women and men, adjusting for other variables.

CONCLUSIONS

These data are among the first to demonstrate CRP correlates in a sample of adult Samoans. CRP differed by sex and was associated with BMI, adiposity, and some cardiometabolic risk markers. These data align with findings in other populations.

Increased burden of cardiovascular disease in people with liver disease: unequal geographical variations, risk factors and excess years of life lost

Background

People with liver disease are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, there has yet been an investigation of incidence burden, risk, and premature mortality across a wide range of liver conditions and cardiovascular outcomes.

Methods

We employed population-wide electronic health records (EHRs; from 1998 to 2020) consisting of almost 4 million adults to assess regional variations in disease burden of five liver conditions, alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, chronic hepatitis B infection (HBV), chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) and NAFLD, in England. We analysed regional differences in incidence rates for 17 manifestations of CVD in people with or without liver disease. The associations between biomarkers and comorbidities and risk of CVD in patients with liver disease were estimated using Cox models. For each liver condition, we estimated excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to CVD (i.e., difference in YLL between people with or without CVD).

Results

The age-standardised incidence rate for any liver disease was 114.5 per 100,000 person years. The highest incidence was observed in NAFLD (85.5), followed by ALD (24.7), HCV (6.0), HBV (4.1) and autoimmune liver disease (3.7). Regionally, the North West and North East regions consistently exhibited high incidence burden. Age-specific incidence rate analyses revealed that the peak incidence for liver disease of non-viral aetiology is reached in individuals aged 50–59 years. Patients with liver disease had a two-fold higher incidence burden of CVD (2634.6 per 100,000 persons) compared to individuals without liver disease (1339.7 per 100,000 persons). When comparing across liver diseases, atrial fibrillation was the most common initial CVD presentation while hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was the least common. We noted strong positive associations between body mass index and current smoking and risk of CVD. Patients who also had diabetes, hypertension, proteinuric kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, diverticular disease and gastro-oesophageal reflex disorders had a higher risk of CVD, as do patients with low albumin, raised C-reactive protein and raised International Normalized Ratio levels. All types of CVD were associated with shorter life expectancies. When evaluating excess YLLs by age of CVD onset and by liver disease type, differences in YLLs, when comparing across CVD types, were more pronounced at younger ages.

Conclusions

We developed a public online app (https://lailab.shinyapps.io/cvd_in_liver_disease/) to showcase results interactively. We provide a blueprint that revealed previously underappreciated clinical factors related to the risk of CVD, which differed in the magnitude of effects across liver diseases. We found significant geographical variations in the burden of liver disease and CVD, highlighting the need to devise local solutions. Targeted policies and regional initiatives addressing underserved communities might help improve equity of access to CVD screening and treatment.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-021-03210-9.

Update on blood-based biomarkers for chronic liver diseases prognosis: Literature review and institutional experience

Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease (CLD) and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Various complications such as portal hypertension, ascites retention, hepatic encephalopathy, and hepatorenal syndrome deeply affect patient outcome. The most common tools to predict the outcome of a CLD patient include the following: assessing severity of portal hypertension; scoring systems such as the model of end-stage liver disease and Child-Pugh score and blood biomarkers related to complications and/or survival rate. In this article, we summarize recent studies of noninvasive markers for predicting impending complications related to CLD and discuss the clinical value of currently available blood biomarkers based on evidence from the literature. In addition, noninvasive blood biomarker assays for different prognostic functions were validated on 113 liver cirrhosis patients at our institution using Kaplan-Meier curve analysis to confirm that these markers can satisfactorily predict CLD-related patient death.

Clinical profile and outcome among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure admitted in the intensive care unit

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been recently defined as a clinical form including acute hepatic decompensation and high 28-day mortality. ACLF usually follows a precipitating event on the background of established cirrhosis. ACLF is considered the most frequent indication for admission to the ICU among cirrhotic patients. Our research aimed to reveal the clinical profile and outcome among patients with ACLF to detect an allocation system of these patients to the intensive care unit (ICU), and a decision tool for clinical practice. It is a prospective study of 60 patients with ACLF. Patients are divided into group A that included 30 patients with ACLF admitted to the hepatology and gastroenterology ward and group B that also included 30 patients with ACLF admitted to the ICU. Each group is subdivided into subgroups regarding the grade of ACLF.

Results

The most common precipitating factor of ACLF is SBP 78.3% (80% in ICU, 73.6% inward). Renal failure is the most common organ failure in ACLF in both groups. CLIF-C ACLF is assumed to be a highly prognostic score for mortality in ACLF patients better than other scores. ROC curve of CLIF-C ACLF with AUC: 0.972 and CI: 0.919, 1.025 showed a cutoff point = 57.0 above which intensive care admission does not seem to benefit ACLF patients. The sensitivity at the optimal cut point is 88.89% and the specificity is 100%. There is a significant difference between the 3 ACLF groups regarding 1-month and 3-month mortalities in patients admitted to the ICU. ACLF1 shows the least 1-month and 3-month mortality rates while ACLF3 shows the highest mortality rates in ICU patients ((1-month mortality: 20%, 60%, 100% in ACLF1, 2, 3 respectively), (3-month mortality: 50%, 80%, 100% in ACLF1, 2, 3 respectively)).

Conclusion

Mortality is high in ACLF and increases with the number of organ failures (40% in ACLF1 to 100% in ACLF3). CLIFC-ACLF is the most prognostic scoring system with a cut-off value of 57; above this value, mortality is a fact.

The Addition of C-Reactive Protein and von Willebrand Factor to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Improves Prediction of Waitlist Mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list may die or be removed because of complications of portal hypertension (PH) or infections. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are simple, broadly available markers of these processes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We determined whether addition of vWF-Ag and CRP to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score improves risk stratification of patients awaiting LT. CRP and vWF-Ag at LT listing were assessed in two independent cohorts (Medical University of Vienna [exploration cohort] and Mayo Clinic Rochester [validation cohort]). Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting list mortality was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). In order to explore potential mechanisms underlying the prognostic utility of vWF-Ag and CRP in this setting, we evaluated their association with PH, bacterial translocation, systemic inflammation, and circulatory dysfunction. In the exploration cohort (n = 269) vWF-Ag and CRP both improved the predictive value of MELD-Na for 3-month waitlist mortality and showed the highest predictive value when combined (AUC: MELD-Na, 0.764; MELD-Na + CRP, 0.790; MELD-Na + vWF, 0.803; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.824). Results were confirmed in an independent validation cohort (n = 129; AUC: MELD-Na, 0.677; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.882). vWF-Ag was independently associated with PH and inflammatory biomarkers, whereas CRP closely, and MELD independently, correlated with biomarkers of bacterial translocation/inflammation.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of vWF-Ag and CRP-reflecting central pathophysiological mechanisms of PH, bacterial translocation, and inflammation, that are all drivers of mortality on the waiting list for LT-to the MELD-Na score improves prediction of waitlist mortality. Using the vWFAg-CRP-MELD-Na model for prioritizing organ allocation may improve prediction of waitlist mortality and decrease waitlist mortality.

Acute kidney injury and hepatorenal syndrome in cirrhosis

Acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhosis, including hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), is a common and serious complication in cirrhotic patients, leading to significant morbidity and mortality. AKI is separated into two categories, non-HRS AKI and HRS-AKI. The most recent definition and diagnostic criteria of AKI in cirrhosis and HRS have helped diagnose and prognosticate the disease. The pathophysiology behind non-HRS-AKI and HRS is more complicated than once theorized and involves more processes than just splanchnic vasodilation. The common biomarkers clinicians use to assess kidney injury have significant limitations in cirrhosis patients; novel biomarkers being studied have shown promise but require further studies in clinical settings and animal models. The overall management of non-HRS AKI and HRS-AKI requires a systematic approach. Although pharmacological treatments have shown mortality benefit, the ideal HRS treatment option is liver transplantation with or without simultaneous kidney transplantation. Further research is required to optimize pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic approaches to treatment. This article reviews the current guidelines and recommendations of AKI in cirrhosis.

Clinical value and limitations of the preoperative C-reactive-protein-to-albumin ratio in predicting post-operative morbidity and mortality after deceased-donor liver transplantation: a retrospective single-centre study

Liver transplantation is still associated with a high risk of severe complications and post-operative mortality. This study examines the predictive value of the preoperative C-reactive-protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) regarding perioperative morbidity and mortality in deceased-donor liver transplantation (DDLT) recipients. In total, 390 DDLT recipients between 05/2010 and 03/2020 were eligible. Predictive abilities of CAR were examined through receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses. Groups were compared using parametric and non-parametric tests as appropriate. Independent risk factors for morbidity and mortality were identified using uni- and multivariable logistic regression analyses. A good predictive ability for CAR was shown regarding perioperative morbidity (comprehensive complication index ≥75, Clavien-Dindo score ≥4a) and 12-month mortality, with an ideal cut-off of CAR = 26%. Patients with CAR>26% had significantly higher median CCI scores (60 vs. 43, P < 0.001), longer intensive care unit (ICU, 5 vs. 4 days, P < 0.001) and hospital (28 vs. 21 days, P < 0.001) stays and higher 12-month mortality rates (20% vs 6%, P < 0.001). Multivariable analyses identified CAR>26%, pre-OLT inpatient hospitalization (including ICU) and post-operative red blood cell transfusions as independent predictors of severe cumulative morbidity (CCI≥75). Preoperative CAR might be a reliable additional tool to predict perioperative morbidity and mortality in DDLT recipients.

Serum C-reactive protein and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as predictors of survival in cirrhotic patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome and bacterial infection

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients are prone to infections due to underlying immune dysfunction in them. We aimed to study the role of inflammatory markers, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), in predicting infection, blood culture positivity, and short-term (1 month) mortality in hospitalized cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

This prospective study was done over a period of 14 months (October 2017 to November 2018). Patient data included age, gender, etiology of cirrhosis, reason for admission, and comorbidity. Laboratory tests included blood chemistry and blood cell counts, and blood and urine culture. The specific tests included were CRP and NLR. Survival of patients in the following 1 month was noted. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, diagnostic accuracy were calculated and logistic regression analysis performed. A p-value < 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

Two hundred and eight patients formed the study cohort. The median age was 51.5 years and male predominance was noted. Alcohol-related liver disease (49%) was the commonest etiology. The infection rate was 62%, culture positivity was 58.5%, and mortality was 30.8%. NLR and CRP were significantly higher in those with documented infection (culture positive or negative) and among nonsurvivors. Optimal cutoffs for NLR and CRP to predict infection were 5.86 and 33.7, respectively. The risk of having an infection was 7.5 times and about 15 times if NLR and CRP were above the cutoffs. The risk of 1-month mortality was 2-3 times higher if patients had NLR and CRP above the cutoffs. The combination of NLR and CRP (≥ 5.86 and ≥ 33.7, respectively) increased specificity and diagnostic accuracy for infection.

CONCLUSION

NLR and CRP were independently good predictors of infection and 1-month survival among the patients with cirrhosis of liver included in this study.

Systemic inflammation increases across distinct stages of advanced chronic liver disease and correlates with decompensation and mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Distinct prognostic stages of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) are defined by severity of portal hypertension (PH) and the presence/absence of clinical complications. We characterised the degree of liver dysfunction, PH, and systemic inflammation across the distinct prognostic stages and assessed their relative impact on decompensation and mortality.

METHODS

A single-centre, prospective cohort of ACLD patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement between 01/2017 and 08/2019 were classified into 6 prognostic stages: mild PH (HVPG 6-9 mmHg, S0), clinically significant PH (HVPG ≥10 mmHg without varices, S1), presence of varices (S2), history of variceal bleeding (S3), first non-bleeding decompensation (S4), and further decompensation (S5). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), C-reactive protein (CRP), and IL-6 levels were assessed in relation to their predictive value for decompensation and death.

RESULTS

Among 168 ACLD patients 78 had compensated (cACLD, S0 = 13; S1 = 21; S2 = 44) and 90 had decompensated (dACLD, S3 = 10; S4 = 58; S5 = 22) disease. MELD increased across all stages (p <0.001), whereas HVPG mostly increased within cACLD substages. Significant increases in CRP and IL-6 levels were only noted across dACLD substages. IL-6 was an independent predictor of decompensation at 1-year follow-up in cACLD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.10; p = 0.013). In dACLD patients, IL-6 levels predicted death/transplantation after 1-year of follow-up (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03; p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

HVPG progression occurs mostly in cACLD patients, whereas systemic inflammation, as reflected by IL-6 levels, only increases substantially across dACLD stages. IL-6 levels correlate with the risk of first decompensation in cACLD and of death/transplantation in dACLD patients.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD; i.e. liver cirrhosis) have a certain risk of mortality according to their stage of disease. Progression of disease is greatly influenced by increased pressure in the portal venous system (i.e. portal hypertension) and occurrence of clinical complications (i.e. decompensation). Our study demonstrates that systemic inflammation markedly increases across highest disease stages, and the inflammation biomarker IL-6 in blood may specifically indicate risk of disease progression in patients with ACLD.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03267615).

Towards an evaluation of alcoholic liver cirrhosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients with hematological scales

BACKGROUND

Seeking potentially novel blood markers of liver fibrosis and steatosis is constantly of crucial importance. Despite a growing number of studies in this field of hepatology, a certain role of hematological indices in the course of liver disorders has not been fully elucidated, yet.

AIM

To evaluate a diagnostic accuracy of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and mean platelet volume-to-platelet-ratio (MPR) in the course of alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

One hundred forty-two patients with ALC, 92 with NAFLD and 68 persons in control group were enrolled in the study. Hematological indices (NLR, PLR and MPR), indirect and direct markers of liver fibrosis (aspartate transaminase to alkaline transaminase ratio, aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index, fibrosis-4, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio, procollagen I carboxyterminal propeptide, procollagen III aminoterminal propeptide, transforming growth factor-α, platelet-derived growth factor AB, laminin) were measured in each person. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in ALC group and NAFLD fibrosis score together with BARD score were calculated in NAFLD patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) values were applied to assess the sensitivity and specificity of examined markers and to evaluate proposed cut-offs of measured indices in the course of ALC and NAFLD.

RESULTS

MPR and NLR values in ALC patients were significantly higher in comparison to control group; PLR level was significantly lower. MPR and PLR correlated with assessed indirect and direct markers of liver fibrosis. MPR, NLR and PLR correlated with MELD score. NLR level in NAFLD patients was significantly higher in comparison to controls. MPR correlated with indirect markers of liver fibrosis and NAFLD fibrosis score. AUC values and proposed cut-offs for NLR, PLR and MPR in ALC patients were: 0.821 (> 2.227), 0.675 (< 70.445) and 0.929 (> 0.048), respectively. AUC values and proposed cut-offs for NLR, PLR and MPR in NAFLD group were: 0.725 (> 2.034), 0.528 (> 97.101) and 0.547 (> 0.038), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Hematological markers are inseparably connected with serological indices of liver fibrosis in ALC and NAFLD patients. MPR and NLR turned out to be the most powerful parameters in ALC patients.

The significance of C-reactive protein to albumin ratio in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

Background

Prognostic indicators in patients with decompensated cirrhosis are vital for the estimation of death risk. The ratio of C-reactive protein to albumin (CAR) has been verified as a prognostic marker in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis related to hepatitis B virus. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and gamma globulins have been separately studied in cirrhosis. We evaluated the predictive role of CAR and other inflammatory markers in decompensated patients.

Methods

We prospectively studied 159 patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis, calculating the following indexes: CAR, NLR, LMR, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD).

Results

MELD (area under the curve [AUC] 0.814) and CTP score (AUC 0.752) were superior to the other markers above in predicting patients’ mortality (P<0.05). Patients with CAR<2.17 (median value) presented better times of survival: 20 months (12-27) vs. 14 months (10-17) (log rank P=0.015). NLR and LMR barely discriminated patients’ prognosis. In multivariate analysis, only MELD and CTP scores were significant risk factors, whether using the proposed cutoff of 1.3 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17 [1.106-2.44], P<0.001) or the median 2.17 CAR categorical variable (HR 1.17 [1.104-1.243], P<0.001). When patients who underwent liver transplantation were excluded, apart from the MELD and CTP scores CAR 2.17 was the only significant factor associated with the outcome (HR 3.61 [0.96-13.6], P=0.05) and detected different survival times: 10 (1-48) vs. 11 (2-38) months, log rank P=0.003. Patients with LMR≥1.9 presented significantly better renal function, in terms of true glomerular filtration rate (80±34 vs. 64±33 mL/min, P=0.004) and creatinine levels: 0.84 (0.1-1.8) vs. 0.98 (0.59-3.3) mg/dL (P=0.001).

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrate the significance of CAR and LMR in the outcome and renal function of decompensated patients.

Influence of preoperative biological parameters on postoperative complications and survival in spinal bone metastasis. A multicenter prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Onset of spinal bone metastasis is a turning point in the progression of tumoral disease; although incidence is increasing, management is not standardized. Various prognostic scores are available, but advances in medical and surgical treatment have made them less well adapted, and sometimes discordant for a given patient. It would therefore be useful to develop new prognostic instruments. The aim of the present study was to identify biologic risk factors for onset of postoperative complications and death following spinal bone metastasis surgery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A prospective multicenter study included all patients operated on for spinal bone metastasis between November 2015 and May 2017. The main epidemiologic data and biologic data (CRP, albuminemia, calcemia) were collected preoperatively. Surgical strategy, death and/or postoperative complications were collected prospectively.

RESULTS

Five of the initial 264 patients died during the immediate postoperative course, and 107 within 6 months. At 1 year, 57 patients remained alive. Twenty-six (10%) were lost to follow-up. Preoperative albuminemia<35g/L (29% of patients), calcemia>2.6 nmol/L (8%) and CRP>10mg/L (47.5%) were associated with significantly elevated mortality. Only CRP elevation correlated with postoperative complications rate.

CONCLUSION

The study confirmed the prognostic value of 3 biologic parameters (CRP level, albuminemia, calcemia) for survival after spinal bone metastasis surgery. A hybrid score taking account of not only clinical but also biologic parameters should be developed to improve estimation of survival.

Ascitic Interleukin 6 Is Associated with Poor Outcome and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: A Validation in Critically Ill Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

Decompensated cirrhosis predisposes to infectious diseases and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in critically ill patients. Infections like spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) are frequently associated with multi-organ failure and increased mortality. Consequently, reliable predictors of outcome and early diagnostic markers of infection are needed to improve individualized therapy. This study evaluates the prognostic role of ascitic interleukin 6 in 64 patients with cirrhosis admitted to our intensive care unit (ICU). In addition, we analysed the diagnostic ability of ascitic interleukin 6 in a subgroup of 19 patients with SBP. Baseline ascitic interleukin 6 performed well in predicting 3-month mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis (area under curve (AUC) = 0.802), as well as in patients fulfilling ACLF-criteria (AUC = 0.807). Ascitic interleukin 6 showed a moderate prognostic advantage compared with common clinical scores and proinflammatory parameters. Moreover, ascitic interleukin 6 had a sufficient diagnostic ability to detect SBP (AUC = 0.901) and was well correlated with ascitic polymorphonuclear neutrophils in SBP (p = 0.002). Interestingly, ascitic interleukin 6 revealed a high predictive value to rule out apparent infections on admission to ICU (AUC = 0.904) and to identify patients with “culture-positive SBP” (AUC = 0.856). Ascitic interleukin 6 is an easily-applicable proinflammatory biomarker with high prognostic and diagnostic relevance in critically ill patients with liver cirrhosis.

Development of a novel score for the diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of bacterial infection is difficult in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIM

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of widely used parameters for bacterial infection in ACLF and to develop a simple scoring system to improve diagnostic efficiency.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study. Procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cells (WBC), proportion of neutrophils (N%), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were examined. Logistic regression was used to select variables for the scoring models and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic value of different indices.

RESULTS

This study included 386 patients with ACLF, 169 (43.78%) of whom had bacterial infection on admission. The area under the ROC (AUROC) of PCT, CRP, WBC and N% for the diagnosis of bacterial infection ranged from 0.637 to 0.692, with no significant difference between them. Logistic regression showed that only N%, PCT, and CRP could independently predict infection. A novel scoring system (infection score) comprised of N%, PCT and CRP was developed. The AUROC of the infection score was 0.740, which was significantly higher than that for the other four indices (infection score vs N%, PCT, CRP, and WBC, P = 0.0056, 0.0001, 0.0483 and 0.0008, respectively). The best cutoff point for the infection score was 4 points, with a sensitivity of 78.05%, a specificity of 55.29%, a positive predictive value of 57.91% and a negative predictive value of 76.16%.

CONCLUSION

The infection score is a simple and useful tool for discriminating bacterial infection in ACLF.

Immune Regulatory Mediators in Plasma from Patients With Acute Decompensation Are Associated With 3-Month Mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Infection is a common cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. We investigated the association between the innate immune response and death within 3 months of hospitalization.

METHODS

Plasma samples were collected on days 1, 5, 10, and 15 from participants recruited into the albumin to prevent infection in chronic liver failure feasibility study. Patients with acute decompensated cirrhosis were given albumin infusions at 10 hospitals in the United Kingdom. Data were obtained from 45 survivors and 27 non-survivors. We incubated monocyte-derived macrophages from healthy individuals with patients' plasma samples and measured activation following lipopolysaccharide administration, determined by secretion of tumor necrosis factor and soluble mediators of inflammation. Each analysis included samples from 4 to 14 patients.

RESULTS

Plasma samples from survivors vs non-survivors had different inflammatory profiles. Levels of prostaglandin E2 were high at times of patient hospitalization and decreased with albumin infusions. Increased levels of interleukin 4 (IL4) in plasma collected at day 5 of treatment were associated with survival at 3 months. Incubation of monocyte-derived macrophages with day 5 plasma from survivors, pre-incubated with a neutralizing antibody against IL4, caused a significant increase in tumor necrosis factor production to the level of non-survivor plasma. Although baseline characteristics were similar, non-survivors had higher white cell counts and levels of C-reactive protein and renal dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified profiles of inflammatory markers in plasma that are associated with 3-month mortality in patients with acute decompensated cirrhosis given albumin. Increases in prostaglandin E2 might promote inflammation within the first few days after hospitalization, and increased levels of plasma IL4 at day 5 are associated with increased survival. Clinicaltrialsregister.eu: EudraCT 2014-002300-24.

CXCR5+ CD4+ T cell subsets and their relationship to immune dysfunction in chronic hepatitis B-associated liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatitis B-associated liver cirrhosis (HBC) leads to profound alterations of immune systems, especially disruptions of B cell immune responses. CXCR5⁺ CD4⁺ T cells (including T follicular helper [Tfh] cells and T follicular regulatory [Tfr] cells) are responsible for the regulation of B cell functions. The aim of this study was to dissect the roles of CXCR5⁺ CD4⁺ T cell subset in B cell disruption caused by HBC.

METHODS

Forty-one patients with HBC and 15 healthy controls were enrolled in this study. ELISA, flow cytometric analysis, and cell coculture were performed to analyze the properties of Tfh and Tfr.

RESULTS

We observed significantly decreased memory B cells and increased plasma B cells in HBC patients, as well as significant upregulation of lipopolysaccharide binding protein and soluble CD14 in plasma of decompensated HBCs patients. The downregulation of Tfh17 was observed in HBC patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis compared with those without. The decrease of Tfh17 was paralleled with Child-Pugh grade and negatively correlated with plasma B cells and soluble CD14 in HBC patients. Interleukin (IL)-21⁺ Tfh of HBC patients was also downregulated compared with healthy controls, and it was positively correlated with memory B cells and the upregulation of IL-10⁺ Tfr. It was then revealed that Tfr could inhibit the secretion of IL-21 by Tfh, and the blocking of IL-10 could diminish this effect.

CONCLUSIONS

The changes of the frequency and function of Tfh and Tfr may play an important role in disease progression and immune dysfunction of HBC.

Predictive utility of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio in early allograft dysfunction in living donor liver transplantation: A retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study was performed to determine the association between the ratio of C-reactive protein to albumin (CRP/ALB) and the risk of early allograft dysfunction (EAD) in patients undergoing living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 588 adult patients undergoing LDLT were retrospectively investigated, after 22 were excluded because of signs of overt infection or history of ALB infusion. The study population was classified into high and low CRP/ALB ratio groups according to EAD. All laboratory variables, including CRP and ALB, had been collected on the day before surgery. A percentage value for the CRP/ALB ratio (%) was calculated as CRP/ALB × 100.

RESULTS

After LDLT, 83 patients (14.1%) suffered EAD occurrence. A higher CRP/ALB ratio was independently associated with risk of EAD, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, fresh frozen plasma transfusion, and donor age. Based on a cutoff CRP/ALB ratio (i.e., > 20%), the probability of EAD was significantly (2-fold) higher in the high versus low CRP/ALB group. The predictive utility of CRP/ALB ratio for EAD was greater than those of other inflammatory markers. In addition, patients with a high CRP/ALB ratio had poorer survival than those with a low CRP/ALB ratio during the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

The easily calculated CRP/ALB ratio may allow estimation of the risk of EAD after LDLT and can provide additional information that may facilitate the estimation of a patient's overall condition.

Risk factors, clinical features, and short-term prognosis of spontaneous fungal peritonitis in cirrhosis: A matched case-control study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous peritonitis is one of the most common infectious complications in cirrhotic patients with ascites. Spontaneous fungal peritonitis (SFP) is a type of spontaneous peritonitis that is a less recognized but devastating complication in end-stage cirrhosis. Although high mortality was previously noted, scant data are available to fully define the factors responsible for the occurrence of SFP and its mortality.

AIM

To illustrate the differences between SFP and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and discuss the risk factors for the occurrence of SFP and its short-term mortality.

METHODS

We performed a matched case-control study between January 1, 2007 and December 30, 2018. Patients with SFP were included in a case group. Sex-, age-, and time-matched patients with SBP were included in a control group and were further divided into control-1 group (positive bacterial culture) and control-2 group (negative bacterial culture). The clinical features and laboratory parameters, severity models, and prognosis were compared between the case and control groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for occurrence, and the Cox regression model was used to identify the predictive factors for short-term mortality of SFP.

RESULTS

Patients with SFP exhibited more severe systemic inflammation, higher ascites albumin and polymorphonuclear neutrophils, and a worsened 15-d mortality than patients in the control groups. Antibiotic administration (case vs control-1: OR = 1.063, 95%CI: 1.012-1.115, P = 0.014; case vs control-2: OR = 1.054, 95%CI: 1.014-1.095, P = 0.008) remarkably increased the occurrence of SFP or fungiascites. Hepatorenal syndrome (HR = 5.328, 95%CI: 1.050-18.900) and total bilirubin (μmol/L; HR = 1.005, 95%CI: 1.002-1.008) represented independent predictors of SFP-related early mortality.

CONCLUSION

Long-term antibiotic administration increases the incidence of SFP, and hepatorenal syndrome and total bilirubin are closely related to short-term mortality.

von Willebrand factor as a biomarker of clinically significant portal hypertension and severe portal hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This meta-analysis was performed to investigate the correlation between von Willebrand factor (vWF) antigen and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and to evaluate the diagnostic performance of vWF to detect clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and severe portal hypertension (SPH).

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were screened up to 5 April 2018. Studies related to the diagnostic performance of vWF to detect CSPH and/or SPH with HVPG as the reference standard were included. Study quality was assessed by using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies scale. Two authors independently used a standardised form to extract data.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcome was the correlation coefficient between vWF and HVPG. The secondary outcome was the diagnostic performance of vWF to detect CSPH or SPH.

RESULTS

A total of six articles involving 994 patients were included in this study. Five of the included articles were used to stratify the results for the correlation coefficient, three for the diagnostic performance of CSPH and two for SPH. The pooled correlation coefficient based on the random effects model was 0.54 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.69), thus suggesting a moderate correlation between vWF and HVPG. The pooled sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve of vWF for CSPH detection were 82% (95% CI 78 to 86), 76% (95% CI 68 to 83) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.94), respectively. Regarding the ability of vWF to detect SPH, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 86% (95% CI 80 to 90) and 75% (95% CI 66 to 83), respectively. These results supported the satisfactory diagnostic performance of vWF for CSPH and SPH detection.

CONCLUSIONS

vWF, as a novel biomarker, has a moderate correlation with HVPG and shows a satisfactory performance for the diagnosis of CSPH and SPH in patients with cirrhosis.

Characterization of inflammatory response in hepatorenal syndrome: Relationship with kidney outcome and survival

BACKGROUND

Several lines of evidence indicate that decompensated cirrhosis is characterized by the presence of systemic inflammation. Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI) is a unique type of renal failure that occurs at late stages of cirrhosis. However, confirmation of the presence and significance of such inflammatory response in HRS-AKI is lacking.

AIM AND METHODS

To characterize the systemic inflammatory response, as estimated by measuring a large number of cytokines, in 161 patients hospitalized for an acute decompensation of cirrhosis: 44 patients without acute kidney injury (AKI), 63 patients with hypovolaemia-induced AKI and 58 patients with HRS-AKI.

RESULTS

HRS-AKI was characterized by an altered cytokine profile compared to the other two groups, particularly IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, VCAM-1, fractalkine and MIP-1α. The inflammatory response was not related to presence of bacterial infection, concomitant acute-on-chronic liver failure or severity of renal dysfunction. Patients who responded to terlipressin and albumin had only a decrease in TNF-α and RANTES after treatment without changes in other cytokines. Interestingly, patients with persistent HRS-AKI had higher levels of IP-10 and VCAM-1 compared to those with resolution of HRS-AKI. VCAM-1 was also an independent predictor of 3-month mortality. A systems biology analysis approach showed that the inflammatory status of HRS-AKI was similar to that of chronic nonhepatic inflammatory conditions, such as lupus erythematosus or inflammatory bowel disease.

CONCLUSION

Hepatorenal syndrome is characterized by a marked systemic inflammatory state, reminiscent of that of nonhepatic inflammatory diseases, that correlates with patient outcomes.

Copeptin – a biomarker of short-term mortality risk (7 days) in patients with end-stage liver disease

Background

For many patients with end-stage liver disease, liver transplantation represents the only curative therapy. Transplant recipients are scored and ranked using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD/MELD-Na). Circulatory impairment is known to deteriorate outcomes; however, it is not incorporated into the current allocation system’s score. The aim of our study is to analyze the predictive value of copeptin as a biomarker of circulatory impairment and increased short-term mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational study of 615 patients with end-stage liver disease. Patients were recruited using assessments performed during the evaluation process for liver transplantation. Copeptin values were analyzed in comparison to MELD-Na, interleukin 6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP).

Results

Elevated levels of copeptin, IL-6 and CRP, as well as high MELD-Na scores, were significantly correlated with mortality. In a comparison of copeptin-tertiles, patients in group T3 (16.3 pmol/L or more) showed a significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 11.2, p < 0.001). After adjusting for MELD-Na, copeptin remains an independent predictor of mortality. It shows its greatest prognostic strength in short-term mortality, where it performs comparable to MELD-Na (AUROC for 7 day-mortality, 0.941/0.939; p = 0.981) and shows an additional predictive value to MELD-Na for short-term mortality (7 days, p: 0.046; 30 days, p: 0.006).

Conclusions

Copeptin presents a valuable individual biomarker in detecting patients at risk for short-term mortality. Further studies should be performed to confirm our findings.

C-reactive protein is an independent predictor for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) is a prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients treated with resection or non-surgical treatment. Here, we investigated the association of elevated CRP (≥1 vs. <1 mg/dL) with (i) recurrence of HCC and (ii) OS after liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Adult HCC patients undergoing orthotopic deceased donor LT at the Medical University of Vienna between 1997 and 2014 were retrospectively analysed.

RESULTS

Among 216 patients included, 132 (61.1%) were transplanted within the Milan criteria and forty-two patients (19.4%) had microvascular invasion on explant histology. Seventy patients (32.4%) showed elevated CRP (≥ 1 mg/dL). On multivariate analysis, a CRP ≥ 1 mg/dL was an independent risk factor for HCC recurrence with a 5-year recurrence rate of 27.4% vs. 16.4% (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.13-4.83; p = 0.022). OS was similar in patients with normal vs. elevated CRP levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated serum CRP is associated with HCC recurrence after LT and may be a marker for more aggressive tumor biology. Future studies should evaluate whether patients with elevated pre-transplant CRP levels benefit from closer monitoring for HCC recurrence.

Association of hepatitis B infection with high-risk complications in total joint arthroplasty

Background

An increasing number of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are undergoing total joint arthroplasty (TJA) surgery in China. Less attention is provided to the special populations and the purpose of this study is to assess the effect of HBV infection on the prognosis TJAs.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent elective primary hip and knee arthroplasties in Shanghai Huashan Hospital from 2013 to 2016. Non-hepatitis B cohort was built to match the case cohort to identify whether HBV infection was a risk factor associated with postoperative complications. A total number of 196 patients who underwent primary TJAs were involved in the study, including 49 patients with hepatitis B and 147 non-hepatitis B subjects.

Results

Among all the patients with TJAs, 5.5% of patients were infected with HBV for the first time. The incidence rate of complications in patients after arthroplasty with hepatitis B infection was significantly higher than that in patients without hepatitis B (10.2% compared to 4.7%, P < 0.01). Surgical related complications (6.1% compared to 3.4%) and general medical complications (4.1% compared to 1.3%) were higher than those in non-B hepatitis group. Compared with non-B hepatitis group, the overall risk of hepatitis B infection increased by 25% (95% CI, 1.04–1.46; p < 0.01). Similar results were obtained for medical and surgical complications. HBV infection presented a 31% increased risk (95% CI, 1.02–1.62; p < 0.01) for medical complication and an 18% increased risk (95% CI, 1.10–1.26; p < 0.01) for surgical complication. No statistical difference was found between the surgical methods and sex. However, a significant difference of C-reactive protein (CRP) level was found between HBV infection group and the matched non-infected group (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

This is the first study to investigate the risk of perioperative complications of hepatitis B in Chinese TJAs patients. In consideration of the large population of HBV infection in China, more attention and medical care should be provided to patients with HBV infection who need to undergo TJA operation.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Death in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammation score recognized as associated with outcome. Although inflammation has been shown to correlate with the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), we sought to investigate the role of NLR in predicting 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients experiencing ACLF. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving a total of 108 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU). NLR, clinical and biological data were recorded. Of the total, 75 patients had ACLF. The 90-day mortality rate was 53%. ACLF patients displayed higher NLR values in comparison with cirrhotic patients without ACLF throughout the ICU stay. NLR proved more elevated in nonsurvivors ACLF patients, with mortality correlating with increasing quartiles of NLR. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, NLR was found to be a predictor of mortality along with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and mechanical ventilation requirement. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was not predictive of 90-days mortality. Performance analysis revealed an area under curve of 0.71 [95% confidence interval: 0.59–0.82] regarding NLR capacity to predict 90-days mortality. When including NLR, SOFA score, and mechanical ventilation requirement into the final model, the area under curve was significantly higher (0.81 [95% confidence interval: 0.72–0.91]).

These findings suggest that NLR is associated with mortality in ACLF patients admitted to the ICU. Combining NLR, SOFA score, and the need for mechanical ventilation could be a useful prognostic tool to identify ACLF patients at a higher risk of mortality.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and incident end-stage renal disease in Chinese patients with chronic kidney disease: results from the Chinese Cohort Study of Chronic Kidney Disease (C-STRIDE)

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) leads to end-stage renal failure and cardiovascular events. An attribute to these progressions is abnormalities in inflammation, which can be evaluated using the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). We aimed to investigate the association of NLR with the progression of end stage of renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in Chinese patients with stages 1-4 CKD.

METHODS

Patients with stages 1-4 CKD (18-74 years of age) were recruited at 39 centers in 28 cities across 22 provinces in China since 2011. A total of 938 patients with complete NLR and other relevant clinical variables were included in the current analysis. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the association between NLR and the outcomes including ESRD, CVD events or all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Baseline NLR was related to age, hypertension, serum triglycerides, total serum cholesterol, CVD history, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR), chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD), hyperlipidemia rate, diabetes, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The study duration was 4.55 years (IQR 3.52-5.28). Cox regression analysis revealed an association of NLR and the risk of ESRD only in patients with stage 4 CKD. We did not observe any significant associations between abnormal NLR and the risk of either CVD or all-cause mortality in CKD patients in general and CKD patients grouped according to the disease stages in particular.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that NLR is associated with the risk of ESRD in Chinese patients with stage 4 CKD. NLR can be used in risk assessment for ESRD among patients with advanced CKD; this application is appealing considering NLR being a routine test. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03041987. Registered January 1, 2012. (retrospectively registered) ( https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03041987?term=Chinese+Cohort+Study+of+Chronic+Kidney+Disease+%28C-STRIDE%29&rank=1 ).

Impact of Cytomegalovirus Infection on the Outcome of Patients With Cirrhosis: A Preliminary Study

GOALS

The aims of this study were to evaluate whether cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality in cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND

In cirrhotic patients, the determinants of HCC and liver-related death are imperfectly known. CMV infection, by its prooncogenic and proinflammatory properties, may favor both the development of HCC and deleterious systemic inflammation.

STUDY

In the 1178 patients included between June 2008 and December 2012 in the CIrrhose et Risque de Carcinome Hépatocellulaire dans le grand-Est (CIRCE) study, a French multicenter case-control study designed to identify risk factors of HCC among cirrhotic patients, we identified 432 patients with interpretable CMV serological status at baseline. They included 159 cases with HCC and 273 controls. We measured factors associated with HCC at baseline and subsequent HCC in controls, and predictors of overall and liver-related death in the whole study population.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 31 months, 25 cases of HCC developed in controls, and 209 deaths (163 liver-related) were recorded. There were 247 (57.2%) CMV-seropositive patients. CMV seropositivity was not associated with more frequent HCC at baseline or during follow-up, but among CMV-positive patients with HCC, the proportion of multinodular, infiltrative, or metastatic tumors at diagnosis was higher (73.8% vs. 57.3%; P=0.029), inducing higher mortality (74% vs. 52% at 3 years; P=0.004). By Cox-regression adjusted for age, gender, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, HCC at baseline, and diabetes, CMV seropositivity independently predicted all-cause (hazard ratio=1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.94; P=0.013) and liver-related mortality (hazard ratio=1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.30; P=0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

In this preliminary study, CMV-seropositive cirrhotic patients were at higher risk of liver-related death caused by more aggressive HCCs or severe cirrhosis complications. These findings warrant confirmation.

C-reactive Protein Can Predict Patients with Cirrhosis at a High Risk of Early Mortality after Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

Objective The aim of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of early mortality after acute esophageal variceal bleeding by measuring the C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 154 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Differences between categorical variables were assessed by the chi-square test. Continuous variables were compared using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses consisting of clinical laboratory parameters were performed to identify risk factors associated with the 6-week mortality. The discriminative ability and the best cut-off value were assessed by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Child-Pugh C patients showed a significantly higher 6-week mortality than Child-Pugh A or B patients (38% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). The 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients was associated with the age (p<0.0001), etiology of cirrhosis (p=0.003), hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.0003), portal vein thrombosis (p=0.005), baseline creatinine (p=0.0001), albumin (p=0.001), white blood cell count (p=0.038), baseline CRP [p=0.0004; area under the ROC (AUROC)=0.765; optimum cut-off value at 1.30 mg/dL] and bacterial infection (p=0.019). We determined that CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL was an independent predictor for 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients [odds ratio (OR)=8.789; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.080-47.496; p=0.003], along with a creatinine level of 0.71 mg/dL (OR=17.628; 95% CI: 2.349-384.426; p=0.004) (73% mortality if CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL vs. 19% if CRP<1.30 mg/dL, p<0.0001). Conclusion In Child-Pugh C patients with esophageal variceal bleeding, a baseline CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL can help identify patients with an increased risk of mortality.

Impact of Vitamin D Status in Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D deficiency is extremely common in chronic liver disease (CLD) patients. Up to 93% of these patients have some degree of vitamin D insufficiency. Liver plays an important role in the metabolism and pleiotropic functions of vitamin D. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased mortality, bacterial infections, portal hypertension complications, and fibrosis severity. We aimed to determine the impact of vitamin D level in CLD.

METHODS

One hundred fifty individuals consisting of 75 cirrhotic patients (cases) and 75 respective attendants (controls) were enrolled between July 2015 and July 2017. A detailed clinical and laboratory evaluation was done along with estimation of vitamin D level. Unpaired t-test and analysis of variance was used to compare difference in the level of continuous variables between different groups. Linear regression analysis was performed to analyze the correlation between vitamin D deficiency and severity of liver disease.

RESULTS

The age of patients ranged from 18 years to 69 years with mean of 48.85 ± 13.6 years in the case group and 46.57 ± 17.24 years in the control group. Out of 75 CLD patients, vitamin D deficiency (<20 ng/dl) was found in 31 (41.4%) patients, out of which 14(18.7%) suffered from severe vitamin D deficiency (<10 ng/ml). On applying analysis of variance test, there was significant difference in vitamin D level and serum albumin and serum bilirubin (P < 0.05). On linear regression, vitamin D level showed significant negative correlation with Child-Pugh score (r = -0.7379, P < 0.0001) and Model For End-Stage Liver Disease score (r = -0.6671, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Our study concluded that CLD is associated with a significantly low level of vitamin D, which was independent to patient's gender, body mass index, residence, and education level. The findings of our study suggest that awareness of serum vitamin D level in patients with CLD is important. Further studies are required to validate the importance of vitamin D levels and impact of vitamin D supplementation on CLD.

Accuracy of calprotectin using the Quantum Blue Reader for the diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in liver cirrhosis

AIM

We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the dosage of calprotectin in ascitic fluid (AF) using the Quantum Blue assay, for the prompt diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP).

METHODS

We prospectively collected 236 AF samples from 119 cirrhotic patients hospitalized in two French centers between May 2016 and May 2017. Bloody and chylous/cloudy AF, and secondary peritonitis were excluded. SBP was diagnosed if neutrophils in AF were >250/mm³ using standard cytology. The Quantum Blue Reader selectively measured the calprotectin antigen (MRP8/14) in 12 min within the measurable range from 0.18 to 1.80 μg/mL; values outside this range were registered as 0.17 and 1.81 μg/mL.

RESULTS

A total of 36 AF were considered as SBP (15.2%). SBP had higher median levels of calprotectin than non-SBP (1.81 vs. 0.25 μg/mL, P < 0.001). Calprotectin levels were positively correlated with neutrophils in AF (r = 0.57, P < 0.001) and C-reactive protein (r = 0.43, P < 0.001), but not with the Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores. The optimal threshold of calprotectin to diagnose SBP was set at 1.51 μg/mL (80th percentile of calprotectin), yielding sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 86.1%, 92.0%, 65.9%, and 97.3%, respectively. Only one asymptomatic patient with SBP had a low calprotectin level, but a high serum C-reactive protein level that strongly suggested an ongoing infection. We also showed that intraclass correlation coefficients for inter- and intra-observer agreement were excellent, with 0.95 and 0.89, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The dosage of calprotectin in AF using the Quantum Blue assay is a rapid and reliable method of ruling out SBP in hospitalized cirrhotic patients.

Pneumonia in patients with cirrhosis: risk factors associated with mortality and predictive value of prognostic models

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis always goes with profound immunity compromise, and makes those patients easily be the target of pneumonia. Cirrhotic patients with pneumonia have a dramatically increased mortality. To recognize the risk factors of mortality and to optimize stratification are critical for improving survival rate.

METHODS

Two hundred and three cirrhotic patients with pneumonia at a tertiary care hospital were included in this retrospective study. Demographical, clinical and laboratory parameters, severity models and prognosis were recorded. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of 30-day and 90-day mortality. Area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC) was used to compare the predictive value of different prognostic scoring systems.

RESULTS

Patients with nosocomial acquired or community acquired pneumonia indicated similar prognosis after 30- and 90-day follow-up. However, patients triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) highly increased mortality (46.4% vs 4.5% for 30-day, 69.6% vs 11.2% for 90-day). Age, inappropriate empirical antibiotic therapy (HR: 2.326 p = 0.018 for 30-day and HR: 3.126 p < 0.001 for 90-day), bacteremia (HR: 3.037 p = 0.002 for 30-day and HR: 2.651 p = 0.001 for 90-day), white blood cell count (WBC) (HR: 1.452 p < 0.001 for 30-day and HR: 1.551 p < 0.001 for 90-day) and total bilirubin (HR: 1.059 p = 0.002 for 90-day) were independent factors for mortality in current study. Chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) displayed highest AUROC (0.89 and 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83-0.95 and 0.85-0.95 for 30-day and 90-day respectively) in current study.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found age, bacteremia, WBC, total bilirubin and inappropriate empirical antibiotic therapy were independently associated with increased mortality. Pneumonia triggered ACLF remarkably increased mortality. CLIF-SOFA was more accurate in predicting mortality than other five prognostic models (model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), pneumonia severity index (PSI), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score).

Hepatorenal syndrome

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a form of kidney function impairment that characteristically occurs in cirrhosis. Recent changes in terminology have led to acute HRS being referred to as acute kidney injury (AKI)-HRS and chronic HRS as chronic kidney disease (CKD)-HRS. AKI-HRS is characterized by a severe impairment of kidney function owing to vasoconstriction of the renal arteries in the absence of substantial abnormalities in kidney histology. Pathogenetic mechanisms involve disturbances in circulatory function due to a marked splanchnic arterial vasodilation, which triggers the activation of vasoconstrictor factors. An intense systemic inflammatory reaction that is characteristic of advanced cirrhosis may also be involved. The main triggering factors of AKI-HRS are bacterial infections, particularly spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. The diagnosis of AKI-HRS is a challenge because of a lack of specific diagnostic tools and mainly involves the differential diagnosis from other forms of AKI, particularly acute tubular necrosis. The prognosis of patients with AKI-HRS is poor, with a median survival of ≤3 months. The ideal treatment for AKI-HRS is liver transplantation in patients without contraindications. Medical therapy consists of vasoconstrictor drugs to counteract splanchnic arterial vasodilation together with volume expansion with albumin. Effective measures to prevent AKI-HRS include early identification and treatment of bacterial infections and the administration of albumin in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

Grand Rounds: Alcoholic Hepatitis

A 33-year-old Caucasian male was admitted to hospital with recent onset of jaundice of 2-3 weeks duration. He reported heavy use of alcohol for the last 10 years with the last drink a day prior to the onset of symptoms. At admission, he was alert and oriented to time, place, and person, and was deeply jaundiced. His laboratory profile can be summarised as follows: haemoglobin 12.1 g/dl, white blood cell count 18,700 with 81% neutrophils, serum bilirubin 33 (direct 22) mg/dl, aspartate aminotransferase 147 IU/L, alanine aminotransferase 62 IU/L, alkaline phosphatase 117 IU/L, serum albumin 2.8 gm/dl, serum creatinine 0.6 mg/dl, prothrombin time 18.3 (control 14.5) seconds, and international normalized ratio 1.48. He was diagnosed with severe alcoholic hepatitis (Maddrey discriminant function score of 50) and treated with prednisolone for 28 days with symptomatic and biochemical improvement. His Lille score at seven days was 0.4, and his serum bilirubin had decreased to 3.5 mg/dl at the end of treatment. He was also seen by the addiction team during hospitalisation; he agreed to follow through on recommendations. He was dismissed after completing a three-week inpatient rehabilitation programme but relapsed to alcohol use three months later, and was readmitted with alcohol withdrawal. He was readmitted two months later (about six months from the first episode) for a second episode of severe alcoholic hepatitis. At admission, his model for end-stage liver disease score was 32 and he was treated again with corticosteroids. His Lille score at seven days was 0.6 and steroids were discontinued. The hospital course was complicated by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and pneumonia with development of acute kidney injury. He continued to worsen, developing multiorgan failure. After a course of one month, the family's preference was for him to receive comfort measures. This scenario raises several questions.

Bacterial translocation in patients with liver cirrhosis: physiology, clinical consequences, and practical implications

The gut liver axis is an operative unit that works to protect the human body against potentially harmful substances and microorganisms, maintaining the homeostasis of the immune system. Liver cirrhosis profoundly alters this complex system. The intestine becomes more permeable allowing the translocation of bacteria, bacterial products and fragments into the portal circulation, triggering an abnormal local and systemic inflammatory response and a condition of perpetual immunologic alarm. This immune-inflammatory disorder related to dysbiosis is involved in the development of liver damage and liver cirrhosis complications and increases intestinal permeability in a vicious circle. Areas covered: The most relevant studies on bacterial translocation, the mechanism of intestinal barrier dysfunction and its consequences in patients with liver cirrhosis have been revised through a PubMed search. Data have been discussed with particular regard to their significance in clinical practice. Expert commentary: The assessment of bacterial translocation and intestinal permeability is not currently used in clinical practice but may be useful to stratify patients' prognosis.

Possible Synergistic Effects of Glutathione and C-Reactive Protein in the Progression of Liver Cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis is often associated with increased inflammatory responses and changes of glutathione (GSH) status. The possible interactions between these two factors in mediating damages of liver function remain unclear. Here, we measured the inflammatory responses and GSH status in liver cirrhotic patients and compared them with healthy subjects. In addition, we assessed the relationship of the GSH status and levels of inflammatory markers with the severity of the disease. This was a cross-sectional study. In total, we recruited 63 liver cirrhotic patients with Child⁻Turcotte⁻Pugh class A scores, and 12 patients with class B⁻C scores, together with 110 healthy subjects. Patients with class B⁻C scores showed the highest level of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) when compared with class A patients or healthy subjects. Patients in class A group had significantly higher GSH levels when compared with class B⁻C group or healthy subjects. After adjusting for potential confounders and each other, serum hs-CRP levels showed positive association with the Child⁻Turcotte⁻Pugh scores, while GSH levels showed negative association with Child⁻Turcotte⁻Pugh scores. Interactions were found between levels of plasma GSH and serum hs-CRP (β = 0.004, p = 0.016). CRP and GSH levels, which had showed interactions, were associated with the severity of liver cirrhosis.

Increased Level of Interleukin 6 Associates With Increased 90-Day and 1-Year Mortality in Patients With End-Stage Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Organ allocation for liver transplantation is based on prognosis, using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) or MELD including serum sodium (MELD-Na) score. These scores do not consider systemic inflammation and septic complications. Blood level of C-reactive protein (CRP), in addition to the MELD score, associates with mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease, whereas levels of interleukin 6 (IL6) have not been systematically studied.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational cohort study of 474 patients with end-stage liver disease (63.5% male; median age, 56.9 years), evaluated for liver transplantation in Germany, with at least 1 year of follow up. Data were collected on blood levels of CRP, IL6, and white blood cell count (WBC). Findings were analyzed in relation to mortality and compared with patients' MELD scores and MELD-Na scores. For survival analysis, the cohort was divided into quartiles of IL6, CRP, and WBC levels, as well as MELD scores. Log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to compare the groups, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) values were calculated.

RESULTS

Blood levels of IL6 and MELD scores associated with mortality: none of the patients with levels of IL6 below the first quartile (below 5.3 pg/mL) died within 1 year. In contrast, 67.7% of the patients in the highest quartile of IL6 level (37.0 pg/mL or more) died within 1 year. MELD score also correlated with mortality: among patients with MELD scores below 8.7, 0.9% died within 1 year, whereas in patients with MELD scores of 18.0 or more, 67.4% died within 1 year. The predictive value of level of IL6 (AUROC, 0.940) was higher than level of CRP (AUROC, 0.866) (P = .009) or WBC (AUROC, 0.773) (P < .001) for 90-day mortality. MELD scores associated with 90-day mortality (AUROC, 0.933) (P = .756) as did MELD-Na score (AUROC, 0.946) (P = .771). Level of IL6 associated with 1-year mortality (AUROC, 0.916) to a greater extent than liver synthesis or detoxification markers international normalized ratio (AUROC, 0.839) (P = .007) or bilirubin (AUROC 0.846) (P = .007). Level of IL6 was an independent, significant risk factor for mortality after adjustment for MELD score, MELD-Na score, level of CRP, or WBC.

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective analysis, we found high blood levels of IL6 to associate with 90-day and 1-year mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease; its predictive value was comparable to that of MELD or MELD-Na score, and was higher than that of level of CRP or WBC. Further studies should be performed to confirm the results in different cohorts.

Von Willebrand factor indicates bacterial translocation, inflammation, and procoagulant imbalance and predicts complications independently of portal hypertension severity

BACKGROUND

Elevated plasma von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF) has been shown to indicate the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension, and thus, predicts the development of clinical events in patients with cirrhosis.

AIM

To investigate the impact of bacterial translocation and inflammation on vWF, as well as the association between vWF and procoagulant imbalance. Moreover, we assessed whether vWF predicts complications of cirrhosis, independent of the severity of portal hypertension.

METHODS

Our study population comprised 225 patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥ 10 mm Hg without active bacterial infections or hepatocellular carcinoma.

RESULTS

vWF correlated with markers of bacterial translocation (lipopolysaccharide-binding protein [LBP; ρ = 0.201; P = 0.021]), inflammation (interleukin 6 [IL-6; ρ = 0.426; P < 0.001] and C-reactive protein [CRP; ρ = 0.249; P < 0.001]), and procoagulant imbalance (factor VIII/protein C ratio; ρ = 0.507; P < 0.001). Importantly, the associations between vWF and these parameters were independent of HVPG. Moreover, vWF (per 10%) independently predicted variceal bleeding (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.08 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.01-1.16]; P = 0.023), requirement of paracentesis (HR: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.01-1.1]; P = 0.023) and bacterial infections (HR: 1.04 [95% CI: 1-1.09]; P = 0.04) including spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (HR: 1.09 [95% CI: 0.999-1.18]; P = 0.053) on a trend-wise level. After backward elimination, vWF (HR: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.02-1.08]; P = 0.003) and CRP (per 10 mg/L; HR: 1.53 [95% CI: 1.14-2.05]; P = 0.005) remained in the final model for transplant-free mortality. Finally, the independent prognostic value of vWF/CRP groups for mortality was confirmed by competing risk analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate that vWF is not only a marker of portal hypertension but also independently linked to bacterial translocation, inflammation and procoagulant imbalance, which might explain its HVPG-independent association with most clinical events. Prognostic groups based on vWF/CRP efficiently discriminate between patients with a poor 5-year survival and patients with a favourable prognosis.

A simplified prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major cause of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality predictors and develop a new simple prognostic model using easily verified factors at admission in AVB patients.

METHODS

Between January 2009 and May 2015, 333 consecutive patients with AVB were included. A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. We compared the new model to existing models of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores.

RESULTS

The 6-week overall mortality rate was 12.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP), total bilirubin, and the international normalized ratio were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model's AUROC was 0.834, which was significantly higher than that of MELD (0.764) or Child-Pugh scores (0.699). Two external validation studies showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently higher than 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

Our new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6-week mortality in patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Our system can be used to identify high risk AVB patients.

Adding C-reactive protein and procalcitonin to the model of end-stage liver disease score improves mortality prediction in patients with complications of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

This study aims to determine the performance of models adding C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) to the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for mortality prediction in patients hospitalized with complications of cirrhosis.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was carried out in consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted with complications of cirrhosis between September 2012 and December 2013 at Phramongkutklao Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. All patients had venous CRP, PCT, and laboratory values for MELD score calculation measured at emergency room or admission. Cox regression analysis and the c-statistic were used to predict mortality. The MELD-CRP score was externally validated in 818 eligible patients from Mayo Clinic, Rochester, using data from 1288 cirrhotic patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2014.

RESULTS

A cohort of 177 patients with cirrhosis was admitted during the study period. Seventy-one patients were eligible for analysis. The MELD score was predictive of 90-day mortality odds ratio (OR) 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.32). Adding CRP and/or PCT to the MELD score improved the predictive of 90-day mortality: MELD-CRP OR 2.71 (95% CI 1.66-4.99); MELD-PCT OR 2.72 (95% CI 1.66-4.99); MELD-CRP-PCT OR 2.71 (95% CI 1.67-4.92). The c-statistics for MELD, MELD-CRP, MELD-PCT, and MELD-CRP-PCT were 0.81, 0.83, 0.84, and 0.85, respectively. Adding CRP and/or PCT to the MELD score also improved 30-day mortality prediction. Similar results for the MELD-CRP score were obtained from the Mayo Clinic external validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The MELD-CRP, MELD-PCT, and MELD-CRP-PCT scores may be superior to the MELD score alone in predicting mortality in patients hospitalized with complications of cirrhosis.