Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

aCCI-HBV-ACLF: A Novel Predictive Model for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Early identification of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) holds crucial importance in guiding clinical management and reducing mortality. However, existing scoring systems often overlook patient's underlying clinical condition, which significantly impacts prognosis.

AIMS

Use the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI) to evaluate the patient's complications to develop a more precise model for predicting transplant-free mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

METHODS

Nine hundred and six patients were included for investigation and were segregated into a training cohort and a temporal validation cohort according to the chronological order of admission in a ratio of 7:3. In the training cohort, univariate analysis, logistic regression analysis and LASSO regression analysis were used to construct a prognostic model and it was subsequently validated in a temporal validation cohort and an external validation cohort.

RESULTS

We found total bilirubin, neutrophils, international normalised ratio and aCCI exhibited significant associations with 28-day transplant-free mortality and established a novel prognostic model, named aCCI-HBV-ACLF. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) values of 0.859 for 28-day mortality, 0.822 for 90-day mortality. In the temporal validation cohort, aCCI-HBV-ACLF achieved area under the ROC values of 0.869 for 28-day mortality and 0.850 for 90-day mortality. In the external validation cohort, aCCI-HBV-ACLF had area under the ROC values of 0.868 for 28-day mortality and 0.888 for 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposes a new prognostic model, which achieved excellent predictive ability for 28-/90-day transplant-free mortality rates among patients with HBV-ACLF.

Clinical Implications of Inflammation in Patients With Cirrhosis

Cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction refers to the concurrent systemic inflammation and immunoparesis evident across the disease spectrum of chronic liver disease, ranging from the low-grade inflammatory plasma milieu that accompanies compensated disease to the intense high-grade inflammatory state with coexistent severe immune paralysis that defines acute decompensation and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Systemic inflammation plays a crucial role in the disease course of cirrhosis and is a key driver for acute decompensation and the progression from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis. Severe systemic inflammation is fundamental to the development of organ dysfunction and failure and, in its most extreme form, acute-on-chronic liver failure. Systemic inflammation propagates the development of hepatic encephalopathy and hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury. It may also be involved in the pathogenesis of further complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma and mental illness. Those patients with the most profound systemic inflammation have the worst prognosis. Systemic inflammation exerts its negative clinical effects through a number of mechanisms including nitric oxide-mediated increased splanchnic vasodilation, immunopathology, and metabolic reallocation.

Benefits of liver transplant in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Implementation of an urgent living-donor program

We evaluated the liver transplantation (LT) criteria in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), incorporating an urgent living-donor LT (LDLT) program. Critically ill patients with a Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score) ≥65, previously considered unsuitable for LT, were included to explore the excess mortality threshold of the CLIF-C_ACLF_score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold). We followed 854 consecutive patients with ACLF (276 ACLF grade 2 and 215 ACLF grade 3) over 10 years among 4432 LT recipients between 2008 and 2019. For advanced ACLF patients without immediate deceased-donor (DD) allocation, an urgent LDLT program was expedited. The CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold was determined by the metrics of transplant survival benefit: >60% 1-year and >50% 5-year survival rate. In predicting post-LT mortality, the CLIF-C_ACLF_score outperformed the (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) MELD-Na and (model for end-stage liver disease) MELD-3.0 scores but was comparable to the Sundaram ACLF-LT-mortality score. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65 (n = 54) demonstrated posttransplant survival benefits, with 1-year and 5-year survival rates of 66.7% and 50.4% (P < .001), respectively. Novel CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold for 1-year and 5-year mortalities was 70 and 69, respectively. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score-based nomogram for predicting survival probabilities, integrating cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and donor type (LDLT vs DDLT), was generated. This study suggests reconsidering the criteria for unsuitable LT with a CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65. Implementing a timely salvage LT strategy, and incorporating urgent LDLT, can enhance survival rates.

Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPS): A Bridge to Bariatric Surgery in Morbidly Obese Patients with Cirrhosis and Clinically Significant Portal Hypertension

BACKGROUND

In cirrhotic patients, portal hypertension increases mortality after surgery. We evaluated the impact of pre-operative transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) on the outcomes of bariatric surgery in cirrhosis.

METHODS

Multicentric retrospective cohort. The decision for TIPS placement has been made according to hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) values and centers' policy. The primary outcome: 1-year decompensation-free survival; secondary outcomes: 1-year acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and survival.

RESULTS

Fifty-three patients were included (2010-2022): 92% Child-Pugh A, MELD score 8, age 55 years, BMI 38.3 ± 13 kg/m2, 9 (18%) had TIPS. At baseline, patients with TIPS had more esophageal varices (89% vs 10%, p < 0.001), more previous decompensations (22% vs 0%, p = 0.002), and a higher HVPG (14 vs 7 mmHg, p < 0.001). All patients in the TIPS group had clinically significant portal hypertension vs 11% of patients without TIPS, p < 0.001. One-year decompensation-free survival was 77.8% and 93.2% in patients with and without TIPS, p = 0.064. ALCF occurred in 3 patients (6.8%) without TIPS and none with TIPS. All patients were alive 1 year after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) undergoing bariatric surgery, TIPS placement was safe and had similar outcomes after surgery as patients without TIPS.

Association between serum endocan levels and organ failure in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is a syndrome characterized by organ failure and high short-term mortality. The lack of reliable biomarkers for the early detection of acute-on-chronic liver failure is a significant challenge. Endothelial dysfunction plays a key role in the development of organ failure. Serum endocan is a potential new biomarker for endothelial dysfunction. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the association between endocan and organ failure and 28-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis with and without organ failure were prospectively enrolled according to the criteria of the European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure consortium. The comparative performances of serum endocan, procalcitonin, and interleukin-6 for diagnosing organ failure and predicting mortality were studied.

RESULTS

The study included 116 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, 55 of whom had organ failure on admission. Patients with organ failure had significantly higher endocan, procalcitonin, and interleukin-6 levels than those without it. At a cut-off value of 15.8 ng/mL, endocan showed a sensitivity of 63.6% and specificity of 67.2% for the diagnosis of organ failure, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.65, which is comparable to procalcitonin and interleukin-6. Multivariate analysis identified serum endocan, creatinine, and total bilirubin as independent factors for organ failure in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Patients who died within 28 days had significantly higher baseline biomarker levels than those who survived. Liver failure, hospital-acquired infection, mechanical ventilator use, and interleukin-6 ≥37 pg/mL were independent predictors of 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Serum endocan is associated with organ failure and is an independent risk factor of organ failure in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

Bacterial infection adversely increases the risk of decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus-related compensated cirrhosis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus related compensated cirrhosis generally has a favorable prognosis until decompensation occurs. Bacterial infections are prevalent in Hepatitis B virus related decompensated cirrhosis.Bacterial infection and decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis are mutually reinforcing. And it also interacts with and promotes certain decompensation-related events. However, the impact of bacterial infections on the progression from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis in Hepatitis B patients remains unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the baseline characteristics of 1,011 patients with Hepatitis B virus related compensated cirrhosis. Using time-dependent regression analysis, we evaluated whether bacterial infections increase the risk of decompensation, defined as the occurrence of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding.

RESULTS

A total of 1,011 patients were retrospectively analyzed over a median follow-up period of 79 months. Bacterial infections were observed in 89 patients (8.8%). Respiratory and urinary tract infections were the most common bacterial infections.Decompensation occurred in 44.9% of patients with bacterial infections, compared to 9% of those without BIs. Patients with bacterial infections had a higher risk of decompensation ([OR] 1.024; 95% CI 1.016-1.032; p < 0.001) than those without bacterial infections.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that bacterial infections have a significant impact on the progression of hepatitis B virus related compensated cirrhosis, notably increasing the risk of decompensation.

The Aachen ACLF ICU score predicts ICU mortality in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) defines a heterogeneous syndrome involving acute decompensation in patients with pre-existing liver disease accompanied by (multi-)organ failure. This study aimed to develop a simple, reliable machine learning (ML) model to predict mortality in ACLF patients receiving intensive care unit (ICU) treatment. Data from 206 patients admitted to the ICU at RWTH Aachen University Hospital between 2015 and 2021 were retrospectively analyzed with ICU mortality as the primary outcome. An ICU mortality prediction model was developed by logistic regression and validated by 5-fold cross validation. Performance metrics were assessed to evaluate the model's accuracy and compare to existing mortality scores. ICU mortality was 60%. The chronic-liver-failure-consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was the best predictor of ICU mortality. ML generated seven models using five to thirteen features. The best-performing model included CLIF-C ACLFs, number of organ failures, Horovitz quotient (FiO2/PaO2), FiO2 and lactate. The newly developed Aachen ACLF ICU (ACICU) score demonstrated exceptional predictive accuracy for ICU mortality (AUROC 0.96), underscoring its potential for mortality and futility assessment in critically ill ACLF patients complementing existing prognostic tools. The ACICU score www.acicu-score.com is an easy-to-use tool for predicting ICU mortality in patients with ACLF offering high predictive performance.

Advancements in MELD Score and Its Impact on Hepatology

There continues to be an ongoing need for fair and equitable organ allocation. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has evolved as a calculated framework to evaluate and allocate patients for liver transplantation objectively. The original MELD score has undergone multiple modifications as it is continuously scrutinized for its accuracy in objectively representing the clinical context of patients with liver disease. Several refinements and iterations of the score have been developed, including the widely accepted MELD-Na score. In addition, the most recent updated iteration, MELD 3.0, has been created. The MELD 3.0 calculator incorporates new variables such as patient sex and serum albumin levels and assigns new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is anticipated that the use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality and enhance access for female liver transplant candidates. However, despite the emergence of the MELD score as one of the most objective measures for fair organ allocation, various countries and healthcare systems employ alternative methods for stratification and organ allocation. This review article will highlight the origins of the MELD score, its iterations, the current MELD 3.0, and future directions for managing liver transplantation organ allocation. LAY SUMMARY: Organ donation is crucial for the management of patients unwell with liver disease, but organs must be allocated fairly and equitably. One method used for this is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, which helps objectively decide which patient is a candidate for liver transplant. Over time, the MELD score has been refined to better reflect patients' needs. For example, the latest version, MELD 3.0, now considers factors like nutrition and gender. This should ensure that more patients, especially females, are candidates and receive appropriate access to liver transplantation. However, not every country uses the MELD score. Some countries have created their own scoring systems based on local research. This review will explain where the MELD score came from, how it has changed, the current characteristics of the MELD 3.0 score, and what the future might hold for organ allocation in liver transplants.

[Abdominal organ transplantation in multimorbid patients]

Patients with an indication for transplantation of abdominal organs often suffer from terminal organ failure with a relevant number of comorbidities. This can be complicated by acute and underlying disease-related events or age-related comorbidities. The diagnostic assignment of symptoms is difficult and the available treatment options have to be adapted. During the evaluation, the waiting time for suitable donor organs and immediately prior to surgery, the treatment team, consisting of the referring physician and the interdisciplinary transplantation team needs to decide whether the transplantation can be performed.

Hepatic and extrahepatic metabolic modulation in hbv-related decompensated cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and decompensated cirrhosis (DC) are life-threatening syndromes that can develop at the end-stage of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Both ACLF and DC are complicated by hepatic and extrahepatic pathogeneses. To better understand the compartment-specific metabolic modulations related to their pathogenesis, HBV-DC, HBV-ACLF patients, and controls (30 each) were analyzed by metabolomics using portal (Port), hepatic vein (Hep), and peripheral (Peri) serum. Compartment ratios of metabolites (RatioHep/Port, RatioPeri/Hep, and RatioPort/Peri) were calculated. The liver tissues (10 per group) were analyzed using transcriptomics and metabolomics. An additional 75 patients with ACLF, 20 with DC, and 20 with liver cirrhosis (LC) were used to confirm oxlipid dysregulation. Both multi-omics datasets suggest suppressed energy, amino acid, and pyrimidine metabolism in the ACLF/DC liver. The serum metabolomic variations were contributed primarily by disease rather than sampling compartments, as both HBV-ACLF and HBV-DC patients demonstrated abnormal profiles of amino acids and peptides, indoles, purines, steroids, and benzimidazoles. In ACLF/DC patients, impaired hepatic metabolism resulted in a highly correlated hepatic and portal vein serum metabolome and release of inflammatory lipids and heme metabolites from the liver. HBV-ACLF showed higher RatioPeri/Hep of extrahepatic inflammatory oxlipids, while HBV-DC patients showed higher RatioPort/Peri of gut microbial metabolites. An inflammatory oxlipid outburst was confirmed in the early stages of HBV-ACLF. The inflammatory effects of the selected oxlipids were confirmed in monocytes. These findings support a synergy between liver-specific mechanisms and systemic inflammation in ACLF/DC development, and that pro-inflammatory oxlipids are metabolic signatures of early HBV-ACLF.

Liver transplantation for alcohol-associated liver disease

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) in many countries, including the United States. However, LT for ALD is a complex and evolving field with ethical, social, and medical challenges. Thus, it requires a multidisciplinary approach and individualized decision-making. Short-term and long-term patient and graft survival of patients undergoing LT for ALD are comparable to other indications, but there is a continued need to develop better tools to identify patients who may benefit from LT, improve the pretransplant and posttransplant management of ALD, and evaluate the impact of LT for ALD on the organ donation and transplantation systems. In this review, we summarize the current evidence on LT for ALD, from alcohol-associated hepatitis to decompensated alcohol-associated cirrhosis. We discuss the indications, criteria, outcomes, and controversies of LT for these conditions and highlight the knowledge gaps and research priorities in this field.

Optic nerve sheath diameters predict mortality and severity in hepatic encephalopathy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare the predictive power of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) measured by brain computed tomography (CT) in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department, with other factors for mortality and disease severity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 217 patients aged 18 years and older with acute decompensation of cirrhosis diagnosed with HE in the emergency department were included in the study. To compare with patients diagnosed with HE, a total of 217 individuals were included in the study as the healthy control group. ONSD measurements were performed on both the HE patients and the healthy control group in the brain CT.

RESULTS

The mortality rate of HE patients was 32.7%. Regarding the severity of the disease, 53% of the patients had late-stage HE. The presence of acute-on-chronic liver failure was detected in 51.4% of patients. The mortality rate among acute-on-chronic liver failure patients was 56.6%. According to the study data, ONSD, creatinine, lactate, and procalcitonin were independent predictors of mortality. Meanwhile, Child-Pugh score, direct bilirubin, ONSD, ammonia, and total bilirubin were independent predictors of disease severity. In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the ONSD had the highest predictive power for mortality and disease severity among the determined predictive values.

CONCLUSION

The data from the study suggests that assessing the ONSD through brain CT scans in individuals diagnosed with HE in the emergency department may provide valuable insights for clinicians, aiding in the prediction of both mortality rates and the severity of the disease.

Altered Mental Status in the Solid-Organ Transplant Recipient

Patients undergoing solid-organ transplantation (SOT) face a tumultuous journey. Prior to transplant, their medical course is characterized by organ dysfunction, diminished quality of life, and reliance on organ support, all of which are endured in hopes of reaching the haven of organ transplantation. Peritransplant altered mental status may indicate neurologic insults acquired during transplant and may have long-lasting consequences. Even years after transplant, these patients are at heightened risk for neurologic dysfunction from a myriad of metabolic, toxic, and infectious causes. This review provides a comprehensive examination of causes, diagnostic approaches, neuroimaging findings, and management strategies for altered mental status in SOT recipients. Given their complexity and the numerous etiologies for neurologic dysfunction, liver transplant patients are a chief focus in this review; however, we also review lesser-known contributors to neurological injury across various transplant types. From hepatic encephalopathy to cerebral edema, seizures, and infections, this review highlights the importance of recognizing and managing pre- and posttransplant neurological complications to optimize patient outcomes.

Association between lactate-to-albumin ratio and short-term prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure treated with artificial liver support system

BACKGROUND

The impact of lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR) on the outcome of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is scant.

AIMS

To investigate the relationship between LAR and short-term prognosis in patients with COSSH (Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B) ACLF.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in patients with COSSH ACLF treated with an artificial liver support system. Restricted cubic splines, linear regression models, and Cox regression models were used to investigate the relationships of LAR with disease severity and 28-day prognosis.

RESULTS

The 28-day transplant-free and overall survival rates in the 258 eligible patients were 76.4% and 82.2%, respectively. The LAR in 28-day transplant-free survivors was lower than that in transplant or death patients [0.74 (0.58-0.98) vs. 1.03 (0.79-1.35), P < 0.001]. The LAR was positively associated with disease severity, 28-day transplant-free survival [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for transplant or death: 2.18 (1.37-3.46), P = 0.001], and overall survival [adjusted HR (95% CI) for death: 2.14 (1.21-3.80), P = 0.009]. Compared with patients with LAR < 1.01, patients with LAR ≥ 1.01 had poor 28-day prognosis [all adjusted HR (95% CI) > 1, P < 0.05]. Lactate was not a potential modifier of the relationship between LAR and short-term prognosis.

CONCLUSION

LAR was positively associated with disease severity and poor short-term prognosis in patients with COSSH ACLF.

Development and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients receiving artificial liver therapy

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is frequently accompanied by short-term morbidity and mortality. However, there have been no studies on the associations between baseline clinicopathologic characteristics at hospital admission and clinical prognosis after receiving artificial liver therapy. Therefore, the current study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting the outcomes of patients with HBV-ACLF following artificial liver support.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 110 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with HBV-ACLF between January 2018 and August 2022 was conducted. First, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic factors significantly associated with patient outcomes. Moreover, a predictive nomogram model underlying the prognostic factors was established and further evaluated. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to gauge the predictive accuracy. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to assess the discriminability and clinical effectiveness, respectively.

RESULTS

In patients with HBV-ACLF, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that age ≥ 40 years (OR 6.76, p = 0.025), middle-stage liver failure (OR 49.96, p < 0.001), end-stage liver failure (OR 19.27, p = 0.002), hepatic encephalopathy (OR 7.06, p = 0.032), upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (OR 47.24, p = 0.047), and artificial liver therapy consisting of plasma exchange (PE) + plasma exchange double plasma molecular adsorption system (DPMAS) (OR 0.26, p = 0.04) were identified as prognostic factors. Then, we established and evaluated a predictive nomogram with an AUC of 0.885, which showed better predictive accuracy than the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (AUC of 0.634) and the Child-Pugh score (AUC of 0.611). Moreover, the calibration curve showed good agreement between the ideal and bias-corrected curves. Decision curve analysis confirmed the better clinical utility of this approach.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and evaluated a unique nomogram that was more accurate than conventional prognostic models for predicting the clinical prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients receiving artificial liver therapy. As a result, the nomogram may be a helpful tool in clinical decision-making to predict the outcomes of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Bowel Colonization With Carbapenem-Resistant Bacteria Is Associated With Short-Term Outcomes in Patients With Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Bowel colonization with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria has been associated with worse clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis; however, it has not been studied in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We evaluated whether fecal isolation of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) among patients with ACLF affects short-term outcomes.

METHODS

Patients of APASL-ACLF (n = 339) were screened between June 2020 and December 2021, and 150 were included. Stool cultures were carried out at baseline and every 5 days thereafter until discharge or death. All surviving patients were followed until 60 days after discharge.

RESULTS

Mean age was 44.8 (8.8) years, with 86% males and alcohol as etiology in 66%. CR-GNB organisms were isolated from stool in 42% of hospitalized ACLF patients, with E. coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae as the most common species. Patients with CR-GNB fecal carriage were associated with higher CTP, MELD, and DF scores but not with recent antibiotics, proton pump inhibitors, or lactulose use. Extraintestinal infections developed in 59.3% overall, most commonly UTI, pneumonia, and SBP. Infectious complications developed in 57.3% and 19.7% with and without CR-GNB in the stool (RR: 5.5; p < 0.001). Peripheral cultures were positive in 60.7% with infections, with species concordant with the fecal isolates found in 90.7%. Isolation of CR-GNB from stool and high bilirubin were independently associated with both in-hospital mortality and 60-day mortality (p = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalized ACLF patients with CR-GNB in the stool have a significantly higher risk of extraintestinal infections, in-hospital mortality, and short-term mortality up to 60 days.

TRIAL NUMBER

[NCT04383106].

Liver transplantation for critically ill patients with acute on chronic liver failure: a prospective national programme of waitlist prioritisation

Background

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) complicates chronic liver disease (CLD) combining rapidly progressive hepatic with extra-hepatic multiple organ failure and high short-term mortality. Effective therapeutic options are very limited, and liver transplantation (LT) seldom utilised through concerns of high recipient mortality and resource use. Retrospective reports suggest recent outcomes may have improved, but use of LT for ACLF has not been prospectively assessed.

Methods

A prospective programme of prioritised liver graft allocation for selected recipients with ACLF through registration on a new national tier, initiated in May 2021 in all 7 United Kingdom LT centres. Candidates were selected by centre multidisciplinary teams, with inclusion criteria mandating cirrhotic CLD with ACLF requiring critical care (CC) organ support and expected 1-month mortality >50%. Exclusion criteria included age ≥60 years, previous LT, comorbidity or substance misuse profile precluding elective LT. A pilot 50 registrations were planned, with pre-specified futility criteria of a 1-year post-LT survival of 60%.

Findings

Fifty-two patients were registered on the ACLF tier, median (IQR) age 46 (39-52) years, ACLF grade 3 (3-3) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 39 (35-40). At registration 32 (62%) required mechanical ventilation, 44 (85%) vasopressors and 46 (89%) renal replacement. Forty-two (81%) underwent LT 2 (2-5) days after registration: 10 (19%) did not. All non-transplanted died at median 7 (4-13) days after registration (p < 0.0001 vs. LT). Post-LT follow-up was 212 (119-530) days and patient survival 81% (95% CI 66-91): 28-, 90-day and 1-year survival after registration 93%, 86% and 77%. Median length of CC and hospital stay in LT recipients was 16 (8-28) and 35 (23-54) days respectively.

Interpretation

We report the first prospective national series of prioritised liver transplantation for critically ill patients with ACLF. For selected recipients LT is a practical and highly effective treatment option where no other similarly effective interventions exist.

Funding

There was no funding for the study.

An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores ( p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/ .

High histamine levels are associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure and liver-related death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The role of histamine in advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) is poorly understood. We investigated plasma histamine levels across ACLD stages and their prognostic value.

METHODS

We included patients with evidence of ACLD, defined by portal hypertension (hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥6 mmHg) and/or a liver stiffness measurement by transient elastography ≥10 kPa, who underwent HVPG measurement between 2017 and 2020. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and/or liver-related death were defined as composite endpoint.

RESULTS

Of 251 patients, 82.5% had clinically significant portal hypertension (median HVPG: 17 mmHg [interquartile range (IQR) 12-21]) and 135 patients (53.8%) were decompensated at baseline. Median plasma histamine was 8.5 nmol/L (IQR: 6.4-11.5), 37.1% of patients showed elevated values (>9.9 nmol/L). Histamine levels did not differ significantly across Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) stages nor strata of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) or HVPG. Histamine levels correlated with markers of circulatory dysfunction (i.e. sodium, renin and aldosterone). During a median follow-up of 29.2 months, 68 patients developed ACLF or liver-related death. In univariate as well as in multivariate analysis (adjusting for age, sex, HVPG as well as either MELD, clinical stage, and serum albumin or CTP and serum sodium), elevated histamine levels remained associated with the composite endpoint. CTP-based multivariate model adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio (asHR): 1.010 (95% CI: 1.004-1.021), p < .001; MELD-based multivariate model asHR: 1.030 (95% CI: 1.017-1.040), p < .001.

CONCLUSION

High levels of histamine were linked to circulatory dysfunction in ACLD patients and independently associated with increased risks of ACLF or liver-related death. Further mechanistic studies on the link between histamine signalling and development of hyperdynamic circulation and ACLF are warranted.

Metabolic Dysregulation and Metabolite Imbalances in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: Impact on Immune Status

Liver failure encompasses a range of severe clinical syndromes resulting from the deterioration of liver function, triggered by factors both within and outside the liver. While the definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) may vary by region, it is universally recognized for its association with multiorgan failure, a robust inflammatory response, and high short-term mortality rates. Recent advances in metabolomics have provided insights into energy metabolism and metabolite alterations specific to ACLF. Additionally, immunometabolism is increasingly acknowledged as a pivotal mechanism in regulating immune cell functions. Therefore, understanding the energy metabolism pathways involved in ACLF and investigating how metabolite imbalances affect immune cell functionality are crucial for developing effective treatment strategies for ACLF. This review methodically examined the immune and metabolic states of ACLF patients and elucidated how alterations in metabolites impact immune functions, offering novel perspectives for immune regulation and therapeutic management of liver failure.

Lymphocyte to high density lipoprotein ratio can predict the short-term prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by systemic inflammation, leading to high short-term mortality. The lymphocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (LHR) has been introduced as a novel marker of inflammation. However, its role as a prognostic inflammatory biomarker in the context of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has received limited attention.

Methods

We retrospectively included 272 patients with HBV-ACLF who met the definition of APALC. Data on clinical features and laboratory tests were collected from medical records within 24 h. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for poor short-term prognosis, and LHR-based prediction (LHRB) models were constructed based on risk factors. Furthermore, the accuracy of the LHRB model was validated through rigorous testing.

Results

In the survival and death groups, there were statistical differences in their CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, COSSH-ACLF II scores, and LHR. Multivariate logistic regression identified seven predictors significantly associated with 28-day mortality. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in short-term mortality and certain clinical laboratory tests for poor prognosis were observed between the high and low LHR groups. To assess the predictive performance of various models in terms of short-term mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated. The AUROC values for the CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, COSSH-ACLF II, and LHRB models were found to be 0.725, 0.788, 0.772, 0.871, and 0.877, respectively. The results in the validation group were similar to those in the training group, and the validation results suggested excellent performance of the LHRB model.

Conclusion

LHR levels have the potential to serve as indicators for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Additionally, the recently developed LHRB model offers an accessible risk assessment tool.

Artificial intelligence-based evaluation of prognosis in cirrhosis

Cirrhosis represents a significant global health challenge, characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates that severely impact human health. Timely and precise prognostic assessments of liver cirrhosis are crucial for improving patient outcomes and reducing mortality rates as they enable physicians to identify high-risk patients and implement early interventions. This paper features a thorough literature review on the prognostic assessment of liver cirrhosis, aiming to summarize and delineate the present status and constraints associated with the application of traditional prognostic tools in clinical settings. Among these tools, the Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring systems are predominantly utilized. However, their accuracy varies significantly. These systems are generally suitable for broad assessments but lack condition-specific applicability and fail to capture the risks associated with dynamic changes in patient conditions. Future research in this field is poised for deep exploration into the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with routine clinical and multi-omics data in patients with cirrhosis. The goal is to transition from static, unimodal assessment models to dynamic, multimodal frameworks. Such advancements will not only improve the precision of prognostic tools but also facilitate personalized medicine approaches, potentially revolutionizing clinical outcomes.

microRNA associated with hepatocyte injury and systemic inflammation may predict adverse outcomes in cirrhotic patients

As the global prevalence of chronic liver disease continues to rise, the need to determine which patients will develop end-stage liver disease and require liver transplantation is increasingly important. However, current prognostic models perform sub-optimally. We aim to determine microRNA profiles associated with clinical decompensation and mortality/transplantation within 1 year. We examined microRNA expression profiles in plasma samples from patients across the spectrum of cirrhosis (n = 154), acute liver failure (ALF) (n = 22), sepsis (n = 20) and healthy controls (HC) (n = 20). We demonstrated that a microRNA-based model (miR-24 and -27a) associated with systemic inflammation differentiated decompensated cirrhosis states from compensated cirrhosis and HC (AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.85)). 6 patients within the compensated cirrhosis group decompensated the subsequent year and their exclusion improved model performance (AUC 0.81 (95% CI 0.71-0.89)). miR-191 (associated with liver injury) predicted risk of mortality across the cohort when acutely decompensated and acute-on-chronic-liver failure patients were included. When they were excluded miR-24 (associated with systemic inflammation) predicted risk of mortality. Our findings demonstrate that microRNA associated with systemic inflammation and liver injury predict adverse outcomes in cirrhosis. miR-24 and -191 require further investigation as prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets for patients with liver disease.

The LIVERAID (LIVER And Infectious Diseases)-ICU score predicts in-hospital mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with infections in the intensive care unit

OBJECTIVES

The admission of patients with liver cirrhosis to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to infections is a frequent occurrence, often leading to complications such as hepatic encephalopathy, renal failure and circulatory collapse, significantly elevating mortality risks. Accurate and timely diagnosis and intervention are critical for improving therapeutic outcomes. In this context, medical scoring systems in ICUs are essential for precise diagnosis, severity assessment and appropriate therapeutic strategies. There are no specific models for the prediction of mortality in ICU patients with liver cirrhosis-associated infections. This study aims to develop an improved prognostic scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality among liver cirrhosis patients with infections in the ICU. This scoring system is designed to enhance the predictive accuracy of in-hospital mortality complementing existing sepsis and liver-specific prognostic models.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted in 620 patients with liver cirrhosis, treated for infections in the ICU of a German university hospital during 2017-19. Advanced statistical techniques were employed to develop and validate the LIVERAID (LIVER And Infectious Diseases)-ICU score, a novel scoring system specifically tailored for liver cirrhosis patients in the ICU with infections. The development of the multivariable logistic regression model involved selecting variables with the highest prognostic efficacy, and its predictive performance was assessed using calibration plots and the concordance statistic (c-index) to evaluate both calibration and discrimination.

RESULTS

The LIVERAID-ICU score integrates Child-Pugh class, serum urea levels and respiratory metrics. It is designed for bedside calculation using basic clinical and laboratory data, with no need for additional tools. In the validation cohort, the LIVERAID-ICU score exhibited enhanced sensitivity and specificity (AUC=0.83) in forecasting in-hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis-associated infections when compared with established scores like Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (p=0.045), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (p=0.097), Child (p<0.001) and CLIF consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF) (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The newly developed LIVERAID-ICU score represents a robust, streamlined and easy tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with infections, surpassing the predictive capabilities of established liver or sepsis scores like SOFA, MELD, Child and CLIF-C ACLF. The reliance of the LIVERAID-ICU score on fundamental clinical and laboratory data facilitates its global application in ICUs, enabling immediate application at the bedside for patients with liver cirrhosis during episodes of suspected or confirmed infections.

Common definitions and variables are needed for the United States to join the conversation on acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a variably defined syndrome characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis with organ failures. At least 13 different definitions and diagnostic criteria for ACLF have been proposed, and there is increasing recognition that patients with ACLF may face disadvantages in the current United States liver allocation system. There is a need, therefore, for more standardized data collection and consensus to improve study design and outcome assessment in ACLF. In this article, we discuss the current landscape of transplantation for patients with ACLF, strategies to optimize organ utility, and data opportunities based on emerging technologies to facilitate improved data collection.

Racial and ethnic disparities in post-liver transplant outcomes for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: An analysis of the UNOS database

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hospitalisations related to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is increasing. Liver transplantation (LT) remains the definitive treatment for the condition.

AIM

To evaluate the influence of race and ethnicity on LT outcomes in ACLF.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis utilising LT data from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. White patients served as the control group and patients of other races were compared at each ACLF grade. The primary outcomes assessed were graft failure and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Blacks exhibited a higher all-cause mortality (Grade 1: aHR 1.36, 95% CI 1.18-1.57, p < 0.001; Grade 2: aHR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.48, p = 0.003; Grade 3: aHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.37, p = 0.01) and graft failure (Grade 1: aHR 2.05, 95% CI 1.58-2.67, p < 0.001; Grade 2: aHR 1.91, 95% CI 1.43-2.54, p < 0.001; Grade 3: aHR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, p = 0.002). Hispanics experienced a lower all-cause mortality at grades 1 and 3 (Grade 1: aHR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72-0.96, p = 0.01; Grade 3: aHR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.91, p < 0.001) and Asians with severe ACLF demonstrated decreased all-cause mortality (Grade 3: aHR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.73, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Black patients experienced the poorest outcomes and Hispanic and Asian patients demonstrated more favourable outcomes compared to Whites.

The role of EEG and neuroimaging in the diagnosis of non-convulsive status epilepticus in Subacute Encephalopathy with Seizures in Alcoholics (SESA syndrome): a case report and overview of the literature

Epileptic seizures are frequently associated with liver dysfunction and alcoholism. Subacute encephalopathy with seizures in chronic alcoholics (SESA) is an underrecognized condition with peculiar clinical, EEG and neuroradiological features.We report the case of a 58-year-old man with previous alcohol use disorder (AUD) and acute-on chronic liver failure on alcohol-related cirrhosis, referred for urgent Orthotopic Liver Transplantation evaluation. The patient presented with delirium, aphasia and progressive deterioration of consciousness leading to intensive care unit admission. EEG showed slow activity with superimposed lateralized periodic discharges (LPDs) over the left temporo-occipital regions and ictal discharges with focal motor phenomena, consistent with focal status epilepticus. Antiseizure treatment with lacosamide and levetiracetam was administered with progressive improvement of consciousness.Brain MRI disclosed T2/FLAIR areas of hyperintensity in the left pulvinar and T2/FLAIR hyperintensity with corresponding DWI hyperintensity in the left hippocampal cortex, suggestive of post/peri-ictal excitotoxic changes with anatomical correspondence to focal LPDs distribution. SWI demonstrated decreased prominence of cortical veins in the left temporo-occipital region consistent with increased venous blood oxygenation in compensatory hyperperfusion.In conclusion, SESA should be suspected in the differential diagnosis of patients with AUD presenting with focal neurological deficits, seizures and focal EEG abnormalities. In this context, EEG and brain MRI represent useful tools with both diagnostic and prognostic value.

Prognosis of Transplant-Ineligible Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Kidney Injury Who Initiate Renal Replacement Therapy

BACKGROUND

Data to guide dialysis decision-making for transplant-ineligible patients with cirrhosis are lacking.

AIMS

We aimed to describe the processes, predictors, and outcomes of renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation for transplant-ineligible patients with cirrhosis at a single liver transplantation center.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study of a retrospective cohort of 372 transplant-ineligible inpatients with cirrhosis with acute kidney injury (AKI) due to hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI) or acute tubular necrosis (ATN) between 2008 and 2015. We performed survival analyses to evaluate 6-month survival and renal recovery and examined end-of-life care outcomes. We used a consensus-driven medical record review to characterize processes leading to RRT initiation.

RESULTS

We identified 266 (71.5%) patients who received RRT and 106 (28.5%) who did not receive RRT (non-RRT). Median survival was 12.5 days (RRT) vs. 2.0 days (non-RRT) (HR 0.36, 95%CI 0.28-0.46); 6-month survival was 15% (RRT) vs. 0% (non-RRT). RRT patients were more likely to die in the intensive care unit (88% vs. 32%, p < 0.001). HRS-AKI patients were more likely to be RRT dependent at 6 months than ATN patients (86% vs. 27%, p = 0.007). The most common reasons for RRT initiation were unclear etiology of AKI on presentation (32%) and belief of likely reversibility of ATN (82%).

CONCLUSION

Most transplant-ineligible patients who were initiated on RRT experienced very short-term mortality and received intensive end-of-life care. However, approximately 1 in 6 were alive at 6 months. Our findings underscore the critical need for structured clinical processes to support high-quality serious illness communication and RRT decision-making for this population.

Cytokine adsorption in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (CYTOHEP): A single center, open-label, three-arm, randomized, controlled intervention pilot trial

BACKGROUND

To investigate the efficacy of bilirubin reduction by hemoadsorption with CytoSorb® in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT).

METHODS

A prospective, randomized, single-center, open-label, controlled pilot trial. Patients with ACLF, acute kidney injury, and serum bilirubin ≥5 mg/dL were assigned 1:1:1 to one of three study groups (CRRT with or without hemoadsorption, no CRRT). In the hemoadsorption group, the CytoSorb adsorber was incorporated into the CRRT system, replaced after 12, 24, and 48 h, and removed after 72 h. The primary endpoint was the serum bilirubin level after 72 h.

RESULTS

CYTOHEP was terminated early due to difficulties in recruiting patients and ethical concerns. Three of 9 patients (33%) were treated in each group. Comparing the three groups, mean bilirubin levels after 72 h were lower by -8.0 mg/dL in the "CRRT with hemoadsorption" group compared to "CRRT without hemoadsorption" (95% CI, -21.3 to 5.3 mg/dL; p = 0.17). The corresponding mean difference between "CRRT without hemoadsorption" and "no CRRT" was -1.4 mg/dL (95% CI, -14.2 to 11.5 mg/dL; p = 0.78). Comparing "CRRT with hemoadsorption" and "no CRRT," it was -9.4 mg/dL (95% CI, -20.8 to 2.1 mg/dL; p = 0.0854). Only 1/9 patients (11%, "no CRRT" group) survived day 30 after study inclusion but died on day 89. IL-6, liver function parameters, and clinical scores were similar between the study groups.

CONCLUSIONS

CYTOHEP failed to demonstrate that extracorporeal hemoadsorption combined with CRRT can reduce serum bilirubin in ACLF patients with acute kidney failure.

Comparison of lactate/albumin ratio and established scoring systems for predicting mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

critically ill cirrhotic patients may present a serious clinical condition defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure with high mortality. While established scoring systems like Child-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) offer prognostic insights, their limitations warrant exploration of alternative markers. The lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) serves as a potential prognostic indicator in critical care settings, yet its utility in cirrhotic patients remains underexplored.

METHODS

one hundred and seventy-five critically ill cirrhotic patients were assessed in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical severity scores, including Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Chronic Liver Failure-Organ Failure Score (CLIF-OF) were compared with LAR along with traditional liver failure scoring systems. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used to evaluate prognostic performance.

RESULTS

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) nonsurvivors had significantly higher scores in all liver failure and clinical severity scores compared to survivors (p < 0.001). Median LAR was significantly higher in nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). ROC analysis revealed comparable prognostic accuracy between LAR, APACHE II, SOFA, and CLIF-OF scores in predicting ICU mortality. Logistic regression identified SOFA score at 48th hour, LAR, and requirement of mechanical ventilation as independent predictors of ICU mortality.

CONCLUSION

LAR demonstrates promising prognostic utility in predicting ICU mortality among critically ill cirrhotic patients, complementing established scoring systems. Early reassessment using SOFA score at 48th hour may guide therapeutic interventions and improve patient outcomes. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings and optimize clinical management strategies.

Association between systemic immune inflammation index and short term prognosis of acute on chronic liver failure

The systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) has been identified as an independent prognostic factor for multiple diseases. However, the impact of SII on outcome of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is scant. A retrospective study enrolled patients with ACLF treated with artificial liver support system. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) (knots at the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles) and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to investigate the relationship between SII and 90-day transplant-free survival and overall survival in patients with ACLF. A total of 258 patients with ACLF were included. The 90-day transplant-free survival rate and overall survival rate were 58.5% and 66.3%. The SII was 465.5 (277.3-804.4). Adjusted RCS models showed linear exposure-response relationship between SII and 90-day transplant-free survival (P for overall < 0.001, P for nonlinear = 0.154) and 90-day overall survival (P for overall < 0.001, P for nonlinear = 0.103), and adjusted Cox models confirmed the positive relationship. Compared with patients with SII < 480, patients with ≥ 480 had more serious  condition, lower 90-day transplant-free survival rate (46.8% vs. 69.7%, adjusted HR (95% CI) for transplant or death: 2.13 (1.40-3.23), P < 0.001), and lower 90-day overall survival rate (56.3% vs. 75.8%; adjusted HR (95% CI) for death: 2.26 (1.42-3.61), P = 0.001). Stratified Cox models suggested no potential modifiers in the relationship between SII and 90-day transplant-free survival. Our findings suggested SII was positively associated with poor short-term prognosis of ACLF.

Clinical outcomes and predictors in patients with acute on chronic liver failure in Southern Taiwan

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The study is to analyze the clinical characteristics and identify prognostic factors as well as evaluate predictive models in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) from Southern Taiwan.

METHODS

The cohort study was conducted using the Chang Gung Research Database. We included patients with ACLF based on the definition provided by the Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC).

RESULTS

A total of 231 patients diagnosed with ACLF were included in this study, out of which 26 patients underwent liver transplantation (LT). The primary cause of ACLF was acute exacerbation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 68.4% of cases and followed by severe alcoholic hepatitis (20.8%). Among LT-free patients, the 28-day mortality rate was observed to be 31%. Older age, higher INR and ammonia levels, and the presence of severe hepatic encephalopathy on 3-6 days of treatment were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated on 3-6 days, demonstrated the highest predictive performance for 28-day mortality. The optimal cut-off values for the CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores were determined to be 47 and 6.3, respectively. Patients with CLIF-C ACLF score >63 or COSSH-ACLF score >8.1 experienced 100% mortality by day 28.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated within one week after treatment, exhibit strong predictive capabilities for short-term mortality in ACLF patients. These models are valuable tools for guiding timely decision-making, including the consideration of liver transplantation or withdrawal from treatment.

[Ethical aspects regarding the management of patients with liver disease in the intensive care unit]

BACKGROUND

Especially in terms of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis, discussions quickly arise in times of scarce resources about the justification for carrying out (prolonged) intensive care measures.

AIMS, MATERIALS, AND METHODS

The following review aims to address ethical aspects specifically in patients with liver cirrhosis in the intensive care unit. A possible structured approach is presented.

CONCLUSION

A general recommendation is not possible. Ultimately, decisions remain on a case-by-case basis and have to take a wide variety of perspectives into account.

Frailty and sarcopenia in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Assessment and risk in the liver transplant setting

Frailty and sarcopenia are well-recognized factors related to worse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis, including liver transplant (LT) candidates. Implications of pre-LT functional and muscle deterioration also affect post-LT outcomes. Patients with cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) have a lower survival rate, both before and after LT. There is a need to better identify those patients with ACLF who would benefit from LT. This review aims to present the available data about frailty and sarcopenia in patients with ACLF in the LT setting. An exhaustive review of the published literature was conducted. Data regarding frailty and sarcopenia in LT candidates with ACLF are scarce and heterogeneous. Studies evaluating frailty and sarcopenia in critically ill patients outside the liver literature are also presented in this review to enrich the knowledge of this field in expansion. Frailty and sarcopenia seem to contribute to worse outcomes in LT candidates with ACLF, both before and after LT. Sarcopenia evaluation may be the most prudent approach for those very sick patients. Skeletal muscle index assessed by computed tomography is recommended to evaluate sarcopenia. The role of muscle ultrasound and bioelectrical impedance analysis is to be determined. Frailty and sarcopenia are crucial factors to consider on a case-by-case basis in LT candidates with ACLF to improve patient outcomes.

[When should a liver disease patient be admitted to the intensive care unit?]

Liver diseases are a significant global cause of morbidity and mortality. Liver cirrhosis can result in severe complications such as bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and infections. Implementing a clear strategy for intensive care unit (ICU) admission management improves patient outcomes. Hemodynamically significant esophageal/gastric variceal bleeding (E/GVB) and grade 4 HE, when accompanied by the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT), are definitive indications for ICU admission. E/GVB, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), and infections with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) require close and stringent critical assessment. Patients with severe hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) or respiratory failure have increased baseline mortality and most likely benefit from early ICU treatment. Rapid identification of sepsis in patients with liver cirrhosis is a crucial criterion for ICU admission. Prioritizing cases based on mortality risk and clinical urgency enables efficient resource utilization and optimizes patient management. In addition, "Liver Units" provide an intermediate care (IMC) level for patients with liver diseases who require close monitoring but do not need immediate intensive care.

[Liver transplantation in acute and acute-on-chronic liver failure]

Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are diseases with a rapidly progressive course and high mortality. Apart from treating the underlying triggers and intensive care measures, there are very limited therapeutic options for either condition. Liver transplantation is often the only life-saving treatment, but it cannot always be employed due to contraindications and severe disease progression. ACLF is characterized by underlying liver cirrhosis and typical triggers such as bacterial infections, bleeding, or alcohol binges. ALF occurs in previously healthy livers, usually as a result of purely hepatotoxic events. Disease differences are also reflected in the course and regulations of liver transplantation. Newer prognostic parameters and prioritization programs for ACLF can help improve both waiting list mortality and outcomes after transplantation.

Age added to MELD or ACLF predicts survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis declined for liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) that is nonresponsive to corticosteroids is associated with high mortality, particularly with concomitant acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Most patients will not be candidates for liver transplantation (LT) and their outcomes are largely unknown. Our aim was to determine the outcomes of these declined candidates and to derive practical prediction models for transplant-free survival applicable at the time of the waitlist decision.

METHODS

We analyzed a database of patients with severe AH who were hospitalized at a LT center from January 2012 to July 2021, using the National Death Index for those lacking follow-up. Clinical variables were analyzed based on the endpoints of mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used for model derivation.

RESULTS

Over 9.5 years, 206 patients with severe AH were declined for LT, mostly for unfavorable psychosocial profiles, with a mean MELD of 33 (±8), and 61% with ACLF. Over a median follow-up of 521 (17.5-1368) days, 58% (119/206) died at a median of 21 (9-124) days. Of 32 variables, only age added prognostic value to MELD and ACLF grade. CLIF-C ACLF score and 2 new models, MELD-Age and ACLF-Age, had similar predictability (AUROC: 0.73, 0.73, 0.72, respectively), outperforming Lille and Maddrey's (AUROC: 0.63, 0.62). In internal cross-validation, the average AUROC was 0.74. ACLF grade ≥2, MELD score >35, and age >45 years were useful cutoffs for predicting increased 90-day mortality from waitlist decision. Only two patients initially declined for LT for AH subsequently underwent LT (1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with severe AH declined for LT have high short-term mortality and rare rates of subsequent LT. Age added to MELD or ACLF grade enhances survival prediction at the time of waitlist decision in patients with severe AH declined for LT.

Predictors for postoperative dysphagia in liver transplant recipients

Introduction

Liver transplant recipients are at a heightened risk for oropharyngeal dysphagia; identification of those who are at high risk for postoperative dysphagia could reduce hospital costs and length of stay. We sought to identify predictors of dysphagia, in a large cohort of patients who underwent liver transplantation.

Methods

Electronic medical records were queried for patients undergoing liver transplantation, who underwent instrumental swallowing evaluations. Demographics, functional outcomes, and interventions were collected. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of dysphagia.

Results

Seven hundred and ninety-five patients met inclusionary criteria. Multivariate analyses found ethnic group (p = .0191), MELD Score (p < 0001), cold ischemia time (p = .0123), and length of intubation (p < .0001) to be predictors of post-operative development of dysphagia. Pre-transplant dialysis (p < .0001), dysphagia related to end stage liver disease (p < .0001), Karnofsky Performance Status Scale (p < .0001), wait time to transplant (p = 0.0173), surgery time (p = 0.0095), tracheostomy (p < 0.0001), and transfusion of intraoperative RBC (p < .0001), intraoperative platelets (p = 0.0018), intraoperative FFP (p = 0.0495), perioperative FFP (p = 0.0002), perioperative platelets (p = 0.0151) and perioperative RBC (p = 0.0002) were variables of significance associated with the development of postoperative dysphagia from univariate analysis.

Conclusions

Our results propose a set of predictors that should be considered when identifying post-operative critically ill patients at risk for dysphagia.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure - steps towards harmonization of the definition!

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), usually precipitated by alcohol misuse or viral reactivation, is characterised by rapid onset and usually reversible liver failure. Various definitions of ACLF have been proposed and widely used across the globe, including those by APASL, COSSH, EASL-CLIF, Japanese experts, and NACSELD. Although all the definitions have several similarities and connote high short-term mortality, a clear and standardised definition is still lacking, hampering research in this key area. In this review, we discuss the similarities and differences among various definitions and propose steps to harmonise EASL-CLIF, APASL, NACSELD, Japanese, and Chinese definitions of ACLF.

One-year transplant-free survival following hospital discharge after ICU admission for ACLF in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis or acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) often require intensive care unit (ICU) admission for organ support. Existing research, mostly from specialized liver transplant centers, largely addresses short-term outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate in-hospital mortality and 1-year transplant-free survival after hospital discharge in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide observational cohort study, including patients with a history of cirrhosis or first complications of cirrhotic portal hypertension admitted to ICUs in the Netherlands between 2012 and 2020. The influence of ACLF grade at ICU admission on 1-year transplant-free survival after hospital discharge among hospital survivors was evaluated using unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival curves and an adjusted Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Out of the 3,035 patients, 1,819 (59.9%) had ACLF-3. 1,420 patients (46.8%) survived hospitalization after ICU admission. The overall probability of 1-year transplant-free survival after hospital discharge was 0.61 (95% CI 0.59-0.64). This rate varied with ACLF grade at ICU admission, being highest in patients without ACLF (0.71; 95% CI 0.66-0.76) and lowest in those with ACLF-3 (0.53 [95% CI 0.49-0.58]) (log-rank p <0.0001). However, after adjusting for age, malignancy status and MELD score, ACLF grade at ICU admission was not associated with an increased risk of liver transplantation or death within 1 year after hospital discharge.

CONCLUSION

In this nationwide cohort study, ACLF grade at ICU admission did not independently affect 1-year transplant-free survival after hospital discharge. Instead, age, presence of malignancy and the severity of liver disease played a more prominent role in influencing transplant-free survival after hospital discharge.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure often require intensive care unit (ICU) admission for organ support. In these patients, short-term mortality is high, but long-term outcomes of survivors remain unknown. Using a large nationwide cohort of ICU patients, we discovered that the severity of acute-on-chronic liver failure at ICU admission does not influence 1-year transplant-free survival after hospital discharge. Instead, age, malignancy status and overall severity of liver disease are more critical factors in determining their long-term survival.

Prognostic Value of Platelet-to-Monocyte Ratio for Mortality in HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Purpose

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a critical condition associated with unfavorable survival rates. Recent studies have indicated that the platelet-to-monocyte ratio (PMR) is considered an effective prognostic marker in several diseases. However, there has been no study to evaluate the prognostic value of PMR in HBV-ACLF patients. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between PMR and 28-day survival in these patients.

Methods

In this retrospective study, data, including clinical and laboratory parameters, were collected for 184 HBV-ACLF patients. Disease severity was assessed using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify predictors influencing 28-day survival. Receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were performed to assess the predictive abilities of the identified predictors.

Results

During the 28-day follow-up period, 56 (30.4%) HBV-ACLF patients died. PMR was significantly lower in non-survivors than in survivors (P <0.001). Logistic regression demonstrated that PMR (Odds ratio, 0.983; 95% Confidence interval, 0.976-0.990; P=0.001) and MELD score (Odds ratio, 1.317; 95% Confidence interval, 1.200-1.446; P <0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. The area under ROC curve for PMR was 0.760 (sensitivity=0.840, specificity=0.620, P=0.001) at a cut-off value of 140.6, and the area under ROC curve for MELD score was 0.819 (sensitivity=0.700, specificity=0.860, P=0.001) at a cut-off value of 23.1. PMR and MELD score exhibited similar predictive performances (Z=1.229; P=0.219). Furthermore, the combined use of PMR and MELD score further increased the area under the ROC curve to 0.858, which more accurate prognosis prediction than use of either factor alone (both P< 0.05).

Conclusion

The PMR could serve as a reliable tool for predicting mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. Additionally, combining the PMR with the MELD score could improve prognostic accuracy for predicting 28-day mortality in these patients. However, further and larger studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Construction of a novel prognostic scoring model for HBV-ACLF liver failure based on dynamic data

Early prognostic assessment of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is important for guiding clinical management and reducing mortality. The aim of this study was to dynamically monitor the clinical characteristics of HBV-ACLF patients, thereby allowing the construction of a novel prognostic scoring model to predict the outcome of HBV-ACLF patients. Clinical data was prospectively collected for 518 patients with HBV-ACLF and randomly divided into training and validation sets. We constructed day-1, day-2, and day-(1 + 3) prognostic score models based on dynamic time points. The prognostic risk score constructed for day-3 was found to have the best predictive ability. The factors included in this scoring system, referred to as DSM-ACLF-D3, were age, hepatic encephalopathy, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, triglycerides, very low-density lipoprotein, blood glucose, neutrophil count, fibrin, and INR. ROC analysis revealed the area under the curve predicted by DSM-ACLF-D3 for 28-day and 90-day mortality (0.901 and 0.889, respectively) was significantly better than those of five other scoring systems: COSSH-ACLF IIs (0.882 and 0.836), COSSH-ACLFs (0.863 and 0.832), CLIF-C ACLF (0.838 and 0.766), MELD (0.782 and 0.762) and MELD-Na (0.756 and 0.731). Dynamic monitoring of the changes in clinical factors can therefore significantly improve the accuracy of scoring models. Evaluation of the probability density function and risk stratification by DSM-ACLF-D3 also resulted in the best predictive values for mortality. The novel DSM-ACLF-D3 prognostic scoring model based on dynamic data can improve early warning, prediction and clinical management of HBV-ACLF patients.

The Lower Survival in Patients With Alcoholism and Hepatitis C Continues in the DAA Era

BACKGROUND

Alcohol liver disease (ALD) may coexist with hepatitis C (HCV) in many transplant recipients (alcoholic cirrhosis with hepatitis C [AHC]). Our objective was to determine whether there were differences in postliver transplantation outcomes of patients with AHC when compared with those with alcoholic cirrhosis (AC) and/or alcoholic hepatitis (AH).

METHODS

Using UNOS explant data sets (2016-2020), the survival probabilities of AC, AH, and AHC were compared by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis was used to determine outcomes after adjusting for disease confounders. The outcomes were also compared with predirect antiviral agent (DAA) period.

RESULTS

During study period, 8369 biopsy-proven ALD liver transplant recipients were identified. Of those, 647 had AHC (HCV + alcohol), 353 had AH, and 7369 had AC. MELD-Na score (28.7 ± 9.5 versus 23.8 ± 10.7; P  < 0.001) and presence of ACLF-3 (19% versus 11%; P  < 0.001) were higher in AC + AH as compared with AHC. AHC and AC+AH has similar adjusted mortality at 1-y, but 3-y (hazard ratios, 1.76; 95% confidence intervals, 1.32-2.35; P  < 0.0001) and 5-y (hazard ratios, 1.64; 95% confidence intervals, 1.24-2.15; P  = 0.0004) mortality rates were higher in AHC. Survival improved in the DAA era (2016-2020) compared with 2009 to 2013 in AHC, but remained worse in AHC group versus AC and/or AH. Malignancy-related mortality was higher in AHC (15% versus 9.3% in AC) in the DAA era.

CONCLUSIONS

AHC was associated with lower 3- and 5-y post-LT survival as compared with ALD without HCV and the worse outcomes in AHC group continued in the DAA era.

Physiological network approach to prognosis in cirrhosis: A shifting paradigm

Decompensated liver disease is complicated by multi-organ failure and poor prognosis. The prognosis of patients with liver failure often dictates clinical management. Current prognostic models have focused on biomarkers considered as individual isolated units. Network physiology assesses the interactions among multiple physiological systems in health and disease irrespective of anatomical connectivity and defines the influence or dependence of one organ system on another. Indeed, recent applications of network mapping methods to patient data have shown improved prediction of response to therapy or prognosis in cirrhosis. Initially, different physical markers have been used to assess physiological coupling in cirrhosis including heart rate variability, heart rate turbulence, and skin temperature variability measures. Further, the parenclitic network analysis was recently applied showing that organ systems connectivity is impaired in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and can predict mortality in cirrhosis independent of current prognostic models while also providing valuable insights into the associated pathological pathways. Moreover, network mapping also predicts response to intravenous albumin in patients hospitalized with decompensated cirrhosis. Thus, this review highlights the importance of evaluating decompensated cirrhosis through the network physiologic prism. It emphasizes the limitations of current prognostic models and the values of network physiologic techniques in cirrhosis.

Clinical Profile and Outcome of Patients Presenting With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND AND AIM

We aimed to study the etiologies and clinical profile and to describe the factors associated with mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients at our center.

METHODS

Patients meeting the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) definition of ACLF were included. We studied etiologies and clinical profile and analyzed the factors associated with mortality in patients with ACLF. We also analyzed the mortality rates based on the number of organ failures and the grade of ACLF.

RESULTS

114 patients were included. Alcohol (82, 71.9%), drugs (22, 19.3%), and viral hepatitis (17, 14.9%) were the commonest precipitating factors of ACLF. The commonest cause of chronic disease was alcohol (83, 72.8%). Fifty-three (46.5%), 60 (52.6%), 44 (38.6%), 32 (28.1%), and 24 (21.1%) experienced renal, coagulation, cerebral, respiratory, and circulation failures, respectively. Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate stood at 54 (48.6%), with a median stay of eight days. Advanced hepatic encephalopathy and ventilator support independently predicted mortality. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score outperformed all other prognostic scores in predicting mortality in ACLF.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol was the most common precipitating factor for ACLF. The in-hospital mortality rate was 48.6%. Advanced hepatic encephalopathy and ventilator support independently predicted mortality. The SOFA score is a more accurate predictor of mortality in ACLF when compared to other prognostic scores.

Elevated neutrophil-to-hemoglobin ratio as an indicator of poor survival in hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis

Aim: Our goal was to explore the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-hemoglobin ratio (NHR) in HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DC) patients. Methods: 172 HBV-DC patients were enrolled. Multivariate analyses were used to identify risk factors influencing 30-day mortality. Results: The 30-day mortality was 12.8% (22/172). nonsurvivors exhibited a higher NHR than survivors. On multivariate analysis, NHR and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were the only independent predictors of mortality. Notably, the predictive capabilities of NHR were found to be comparable to those of the MELD score. Conclusion: High NHR was associated with poor prognosis in HBV-DC patients, and NHR can serve as an effective and readily available indicator for the prediction of mortality in these patients.