A combined model based on spleen stiffness measurement and Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices in advanced chronic liver disease

Noninvasive Assessment of Portal Hypertension

The progressive use of noninvasive tests (NITs) has changed the way hepatologists diagnose and manage patients with chronic liver disease, mainly because of their easiness to use and the ability to be repeated during follow-up. Liver stiffness measurement is the NIT with more scientific evidence. NITs have demonstrated to be useful to detect not only liver fibrosis but also the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension. Moreover, current evidence supports they can also be useful to evaluate the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease.

WFUMB Guideline/Guidance on Liver Multiparametric Ultrasound: Part 1. Update to 2018 Guidelines on Liver Ultrasound Elastography

The World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (WFUMB) endorsed the development of this document on multiparametric ultrasound. Part 1 is an update to the WFUMB Liver Elastography Guidelines Update released in 2018 and provides new evidence on the role of ultrasound elastography in chronic liver disease. The recommendations in this update were made and graded using the Oxford classification, including level of evidence (LoE), grade of recommendation (GoR) and proportion of agreement (Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine [OCEBM] 2009). The guidelines are clinically oriented, and the role of shear wave elastography in both fibrosis staging and prognostication in different etiologies of liver disease is discussed, highlighting advantages and limitations. A comprehensive section is devoted to the assessment of portal hypertension, with specific recommendations for the interpretation of liver and spleen stiffness measurements in this setting.

Enhancing liver cirrhosis varices and CSPH risk prediction with spleen stiffness measurement using 100-Hz probe

Managing complications of liver cirrhosis such as varices needing treatment (VNT) and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) demands precise and non-invasive diagnostic methods. This study assesses the efficacy of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) using a 100-Hz probe for predicting VNT and CSPH, aiming to refine diagnostic thresholds. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 257 cirrhotic patients, comparing the diagnostic performance of SSM against traditional criteria, including Baveno VII, for predicting VNT and CSPH. The DeLong test was used for statistical comparisons among predictive models. The success rate of SSM@100 Hz was 94.60%, and factors related to SSM failure were high body mass index and small spleen volume or length. In our cohort, the identified SSM cut-off of 38.9 kPa, which achieved a sensitivity of 92% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98% for detecting VNT, is clinically nearly identical to the established Baveno threshold of 40 kPa. The predictive capability of the SSM-based model for VNT was superior to the LSM ± PLT model (p = 0.017). For CSPH prediction, the SSM model notably outperformed existing non-invasive tests (NITs), with an AUC improvement and significant correlations with HVPG measurements (obtained from 49 patients), highlighting a correlation coefficient of 0.486 (p < 0.001) between SSM and HVPG. Therefore, incorporating SSM into clinical practice significantly enhances the prediction accuracy for both VNT and CSPH in cirrhosis patients, mainly due to the high correlation between SSM and HVPG. SSM@100 Hz can offer valuable clinical assistance in avoiding unnecessary endoscopy in these patients.

Combining Spleen Diameter and the Baveno VI Criteria Assessed by 2-Dimensional Shear Wave Elastography to Rule Out High-Risk Varices

ABSTRACT

Patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) can safely spared screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) when they meet the Baveno VI criteria as assessed by transient elastography. Recently, the cutoff values of the Baveno VI criteria assessed by 2-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) were proposed. We aimed to validate it to rule out high-risk varices (HRVs) in cACLD patients; combine spleen diameter (SPD) with the Baveno VI criteria and assess whether it can spare more screening EGD. A total of 173 cACLD patients with successful liver stiffness (LS) measurements and EGD examinations were included. We analyzed the risk factors that predicted HRVs and compared the performances of different models for ruling out HRVs. The platelet count, LS, and SPD were independent predictors of HRVs. The AUCs of platelet count, LS, spleen stiffness and SPD for diagnosing HRVs were 0.797, 0.757, 0.834, and 0.804, respectively. The Baveno VI criteria assessed by 2D-SWE spared 25.4% of EGD screenings and missed 2.4% of the HRV patients. Combining SPD ≤11.1 cm with the Baveno VI criteria could spare more EGD screenings than just applying the Baveno VI criteria (45.1% vs 25.4%, P < 0.001), and missed 4.9% of the HRV patients. The Baveno VI criteria assessed by 2D-SWE could be safely applied in cACLD patients to rule out HRV patients. The combined model Baveno VI/SPD could safely and significantly increase the rate of spared EGD.

Higher frequency of gastric neoplasia in advanced chronic liver disease patients: Impact of screening endoscopy in an intermediate-high risk country

BACKGROUND

The Baveno VII guidelines were proposed to identify which patients could safely avoid screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) for gastroesophageal varices. We aimed to evaluate the frequency of gastric neoplasia in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients who underwent EGD for screening of gastroesophageal varices (GOEV) compared to a healthy population.

METHODS

Retrospective study that enrolled all cACLD patients who underwent EGD for GOEV screening (January 2008-June 2018) in a tertiary reference center. cACLD patients were compared with asymptomatic healthy individuals who underwent EGD in a private hospital setting (April 2017-March 2018).

RESULTS

We evaluated 1845 patients (481 cACLD patients, 1364 healthy individuals). A significantly higher frequency of gastric neoplasia was observed in patients with cACLD compared to healthy individuals (4.0% vs. 1.0 %; p < 0.001). Rare histopathological subtypes (WHO Classification) accounted for 28.7 % of gastric carcinoma cases in the cACLD cohort. Seven cases of gastric neoplasia (36.8 % of gastric neoplasia cases in the cACLD patients) were diagnosed in patients who, according to the Baveno VII criteria, would have not been submitted to EGD.

CONCLUSION

We found an increased frequency of gastric neoplasia in patients with cACLD in comparison with healthy individuals. In countries with intermediate-high risk for GC, continuing to perform EGD could be beneficial.

Role of Spleen Stiffness Measurement in the Evaluation of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) correlates with the severity of portal hypertension.

AIMS

We investigated the utility of SSM in individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) for detecting cirrhosis, esophageal varices (EV), and high-risk EV.

METHODS

154 study participants with MASLD underwent simultaneous liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM. 96 (62%) participants had an upper endoscopy (73 participants, i.e., 47% undergoing within a year). The diagnostic performance of SSM, as well as the BAVENO VII proposed SSM cutoffs (≥ 21 kPa, > 40 kPa, and > 50 kPa), was examined.

RESULTS

The failure rate for SSM was 19% compared to 5% for LSM. An invalid SSM was statistically significantly associated with a higher body mass index, a larger waist circumference, and a lower fibrosis stage. The area under the receiver operating characteristics for SSM to diagnose cirrhosis, EV, and high-risk EV was 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.85), 0.74 (95% CI 0.61-0.84), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.98), respectively. SSM ≥ 21 kPa cutoff had a sensitivity > 96% for all three outcomes, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 88% for cirrhosis. In contrast, SSM > 40 kPa and SSM > 50 kPa cutoffs had better diagnostic abilities for identifying EV, particularly high-risk EV (sensitivity of 100% and 93% with NPV of 100% and 96%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

SSM has a higher failure rate in individuals who are non-cirrhotic or have a higher BMI, or larger waist circumference. Although useful for diagnosing NASH cirrhosis, SSM is most reliable in excluding EV and high-risk EV.

Improved Applicability and Diagnostic Accuracy of the Novel Spleen-Dedicated Transient Elastography Device for High-Risk Esophageal Varices

Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by transient elastography (TE) has been repeatedly demonstrated as the reliable way to rule out the presence of high-risk esophageal varices (HRV). We aimed to evaluate and compare novel vs. standard TE-SSM module performance in diagnosing HRV in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). This retrospective study included patients with cACLD; blood data, upper digestive endoscopy performed within 3 months of TE, SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz were collected. Overall, 112 patients with cACLD were analyzed (75.9% males, average age of 66, 43.7% alcohol-related chronic liver disease, 22.3% metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease, 6.2% viral hepatitis). Reliable SSM was possible in 80.3% and 93.8% of patients by using SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz probe, respectively. At the cut-off 41.8 kPa and 40.9 kPa (Youden), SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz had AUROCs of 0.746 and 0.752, respectively, for diagnosing HRV (p = 0.71). At the respective cut-offs, sensitivities for HRV were 92.9% and 100%, resulting in misclassification rates of 7.1% and 0% by using SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz. SSM reliably excludes HRV in cACLD patients, with measurements below 41 kPa potentially avoiding EGD in around 50% of cases, with minimal risk of HRV omission. SSM@100Hz demonstrated less measurement failures and no HRV misclassification.

Acoustic Radiation Forced Impulse of the Liver and the Spleen, Combined with Spleen Dimension and Platelet Count in New Ratio Scores, Identifies High-Risk Esophageal Varices in Well-Compensated Cirrhotic Patients

Acoustic radiation forced impulse (ARFI) is an integrated ultrasound method, measuring stiffness by point shear wave elastography. To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the ARFI of the liver and the spleen, combined with spleen dimension and platelet count, in predicting high-risk esophageal varices (HRVs) in cirrhotic patients, a prospective and cross-sectional study was conducted between February 2017 and February 2021. The following ratio scores were calculated based on ARFI measurements: ALSDP (ARFI Liver-Spleen Diameter-to-Platelet Ratio Score), ASSDP (ARFI Spleen-Spleen Diameter-to-Platelet Ratio Score), ASSAP (ARFI Spleen-Spleen Area-to-Platelet Ratio Score), and ALSAP (ARFI Liver-Spleen Area-to-Platelet Ratio Score). In 100 enrolled subjects, spleen ARFI, ASSDP, and ASSAP were significantly associated with HRVs in the prospective short- and long-term follow-ups and in the cross-sectional study (p < 0.05), while ALSDP and ALSAP were associated with HRVs only in the prospective long-term follow-up and cross-sectional study (p< 0.05). ASSAP was the best ARFI ratio score for HRVs at the long-term follow-up [value of area under curve (AUC) = 0.88], although all the ARFI ratio scores performed better than individual liver and spleen ARFI (AUC > 0.7). In our study, ARFI ratio scores can predict, in well-compensated cirrhotic patients, the risk of developing HVRs in short- and long-term periods.

Spleen Stiffness-Based Algorithms Are Superior to Baveno VI Criteria to Rule Out Varices Needing Treatment in Patients With Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

The Baveno VI criteria have set the stage for noninvasive assessment of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). The algorithm combining liver stiffness measurement (LSM, <20 kPa) and platelet count (>150,000/μL) safely avoids screening endoscopy for varices needing treatment (VNT) but identifies only a relatively low number of patients. We aimed to evaluate the value of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) using spleen-dedicated elastography in ruling out VNT.

METHODS

In this real-life multicenter retrospective derivation-validation cohort, all consecutive patients with ACLD (defined by LSM ≥10 kPa) with available upper endoscopy, laboratory results, spleen diameter, LSM, and SSM measured with spleen-dedicated transient elastography were included. VNT were defined as medium-to-large varices or small varices with red spots.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort (n = 201, 11.9% VNT), SSM demonstrated excellent capability at identifying VNT (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.88), outperforming LSM (AUROC 0.77, P = 0.03) and platelets (AUROC 0.73, P = 0.002). In comparison with Baveno VI criteria (33.8% spared endoscopies), the sequential Baveno VI plus SSM and a novel spleen size and stiffness model were able to increase the number of patients avoiding endoscopy (66.2% and 71.1%, respectively) without missing more than 5% of VNT. These findings were confirmed in an external validation cohort of patients with more advanced liver disease (n = 176, 34.7% VNT) in which the number of spared endoscopies tripled (27.3% and 31.3% for SSM-based algorithms) compared with Baveno VI criteria (8.5%).

DISCUSSION

Spleen stiffness-based algorithms are superior to Baveno VI criteria in ruling out VNT in patients with ACLD and double the number of patients avoiding screening endoscopy.

Liver stiffness and spleen stiffness predict distinct liver-related events after hepatitis C eradication with direct-acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

/Purpose: This study aimed to directly compare the utility of liver stiffness (LS) and spleen stiffness (SS) at sustained virologic response (SVR) for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and non-HCC events in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) after direct-acting antiviral therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 695 CHC patients who achieved SVR and underwent LS and SS measurements. LS and SS were measured using point shear wave elastography and compared head-to-head.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 29.5 months, 49 (7.1%) patients developed liver-related events (LREs), including 28 HCC and 22 non-HCC events after SVR. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that age, albumin level, and LS (≥ versus <1.46 m/s) at SVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 5.390; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.349-12.364; p < 0.001), but not SS at SVR, significantly predicted the overall risk of post-SVR LREs (n = 49). Furthermore, age and LS (≥ versus <1.46 m/s) at SVR (aHR: 6.759; 95% CI: 2.317-19.723; p < 0.001), but not SS at SVR, independently predicted the risk of post-SVR incident HCC. In contrast, SS (≥ versus <2.87 m/s) at SVR (aHR: 11.212; 95% CI: 1.564-20.132; p = 0.021) and albumin level, but not LS at SVR, significantly predicted the risk of post-SVR non-HCC events.

CONCLUSION

Post-SVR LS better predicts HCC risk. Post-SVR SS helps predict non-HCC risk after antiviral therapy for CHC. LS and SS at SVR provide complementary prognostic information regarding risks of HCC and non-HCC events in the post-SVR setting. Further validation is warranted in larger cohorts.

Portal hypertension in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Current knowledge and challenges

Portal hypertension (PH) has traditionally been observed as a consequence of significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in advanced non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, recent studies have provided evidence that PH may develop in earlier stages of NAFLD, suggesting that there are additional pathogenetic mechanisms at work in addition to liver fibrosis. The early development of PH in NAFLD is associated with hepatocellular lipid accumulation and ballooning, leading to the compression of liver sinusoids. External compression and intra-luminal obstacles cause mechanical forces such as strain, shear stress and elevated hydrostatic pressure that in turn activate mechanotransduction pathways, resulting in endothelial dysfunction and the development of fibrosis. The spatial distribution of histological and functional changes in the periportal and perisinusoidal areas of the liver lobule are considered responsible for the pre-sinusoidal component of PH in patients with NAFLD. Thus, current diagnostic methods such as hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement tend to underestimate portal pressure (PP) in NAFLD patients, who might decompensate below the HVPG threshold of 10 mmHg, which is traditionally considered the most relevant indicator of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). This creates further challenges in finding a reliable diagnostic method to stratify the prognostic risk in this population of patients. In theory, the measurement of the portal pressure gradient guided by endoscopic ultrasound might overcome the limitations of HVPG measurement by avoiding the influence of the pre-sinusoidal component, but more investigations are needed to test its clinical utility for this indication. Liver and spleen stiffness measurement in combination with platelet count is currently the best-validated non-invasive approach for diagnosing CSPH and varices needing treatment. Lifestyle change remains the cornerstone of the treatment of PH in NAFLD, together with correcting the components of metabolic syndrome, using nonselective beta blockers, whereas emerging candidate drugs require more robust confirmation from clinical trials.

Recent Advances in the Pathogenesis and Clinical Evaluation of Portal Hypertension in Chronic Liver Disease

In chronic liver disease, hepatic stellate cell activation and degeneration of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells lead to structural changes, which are secondary to fibrosis and the presence of regenerative nodules in the sinusoids, and to functional changes, which are related to vasoconstriction. The combination of such changes increases intrahepatic vascular resistance and causes portal hypertension. The subsequent increase in splanchnic and systemic hyperdynamic circulation further increases the portal blood flow, thereby exacerbating portal hypertension. In clinical practice, the hepatic venous pressure gradient is the gold-standard measure of portal hypertension; a value of ≥10 mm Hg is defined as clinically significant portal hypertension, which is severe and is associated with the risk of liver-related events. Hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement is somewhat invasive, so evidence on the utility of risk stratification by elastography and serum biomarkers is needed. The various stages of cirrhosis are associated with different outcomes. In viral hepatitis-related cirrhosis, viral suppression or elimination by nucleos(t)ide analog or direct-acting antivirals results in recompensation of liver function and portal pressure. However, careful follow-up should be continued, because some cases have residual clinically significant portal hypertension even after achieving sustained virologic response. In this study, we reviewed the current and future prospects for portal hypertension.

Spleen stiffness measurement predicts decompensation and rules out high-risk oesophageal varices in primary biliary cholangitis

Background & Aims

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may lead to portal hypertension (PH). Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography accurately predicts PH. We aimed to assess SSM role in stratifying the risk of liver decompensation in PBC.

Methods

In this monocentric, prospective, cross-sectional study, we included 114 patients with PBC who underwent liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM. In total, 78 and 33 patients underwent two and three sequential vibration-controlled transient elastography examinations, respectively (longitudinal study). Screening for high-risk oesophageal varices by oesophagogastroduodenoscopy was performed according to guidelines and proposed to all patients with SSM >40 kPa.

Results

Among the 114 patients, 20 (17%) had LSM ≥10 kPa, whereas 17 (15%) had SSM >40 kPa. None of the patients with SSM ≤40 kPa had high-risk oesophageal varices, compared with three of 14 patients with SSM >40 kPa (21%; three refused endoscopy); any-size oesophageal varices were found in nine of 14 patients (64%). During a median follow-up of 15 months (IQR 10-31 months), five (4%) patients developed liver decompensation. The probability of liver decompensation was significantly higher among patients with both LSM ≥10 kPa and SSM >40 kPa: 41% at 24 months vs. 0% in other patient groups (i.e. LSM <10 kPa and SSM ≤40 kPa, or LSM ≥10 kPa and SSM ≤40 kPa, or LSM <10 kPa and SSM >40 kPa) (p <0.0001). Among the 78 patients undergoing longitudinal evaluation, four of nine patients (44%) with SSM increase during follow-up experienced liver decompensation, whereas none of those with stable LSM and SSM had liver decompensation.

Conclusions

Both LSM and SSM predict liver decompensation in patients with PBC. SSM ≤40 kPa rules out high-risk oesophageal varices and might be used in combination with LSM to improve the prediction of PH-related complications.

Impact and implications

Spleen stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography accurately predicts portal hypertension in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. The present study is the first to demonstrate that in primary biliary cholangitis the combination of liver stiffness and spleen stiffness measurement can significantly improve risk stratification by predicting liver decompensation. Moreover, when spleen stiffness is combined with liver stiffness measurement and platelet count, it aids in identifying individuals with a low probability of having high-risk oesophageal varices, thereby allowing the avoidance of unnecessary endoscopy examinations. Further validation of our results in larger cohorts of patients with primary biliary cholangitis is needed to implement spleen stiffness measurement in clinical practice.

Variability of transient elastography-based spleen stiffness performed at 100 Hz

BACKGROUND

Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) performed by transient elastography at 100 Hz is a novel technology for the evaluation of portal hypertension in advanced chronic liver disease, but technical aspects are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the intraexamination variability of SSM and to determine the best transient elastography protocol for obtaining robust measurements to be used in clinical practice.

METHODS

We analyzed 253 SSM exams with up to 20 scans for each examination, performed between April 2021 and June 2022. All SSM results were evaluated according to different protocols by dividing data into groups of n measurements (from 2 to 19). Considering as reference the median SSM values across all the 20 measurements, we calculated the distribution of the absolute deviations of each protocol from the reference median. This analysis was repeated 1,000 times by resampling the data. Distributions were also stratified by etiology (chronic liver disease versus clinically significant portal hypertension) and different SSM ranges: < 25 kPa, 25-75, and > 75 kPa.

RESULTS

Overall, we observed that the spleen stiffness exam had less variability if it exceeded 12 measurements, i.e., absolute deviations ≤ 5 kPa at 95% confidence. For exams with higher SSM values (> 75 kPa), as seen in clinically significant portal hypertension, at least 15 measurements are highly recommendable.

CONCLUSIONS

Fifteen scans per examination should be considered for each SSM exam performed at 100 Hz to achieve a low intraexamination variability within a reasonable time in clinical practice.

RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Performing at least 15 scans per examination is recommended for 100 Hz SSM in order to achieve a low intraexamination variability, in particular for values > 75 kPa compatible with clinically significant portal hypertension.

KEY POINTS

• Spleen stiffness measurement by transient elastography is used for stratification in patients with portal hypertension. • At 100 Hz, this method may have intraexamination variability. • A minimum of 15 scans per examination achieves a low intraexamination variability.

Letter to editor ‘Non-invasive model for predicting high-risk esophageal varices based on liver and spleen stiffness’

This letter to the editor relates to the study entitled "Non-invasive model for predicting high-risk esophageal varices based on liver and spleen stiffness". Acute bleeding caused by esophageal varices is a life-threatening complication in patients with liver cirrhosis. Due to the discomfort, contraindications, and associated complications of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy screening, it is crucial to identify an imaging-based non-invasive model for predicting high-risk esophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis.

Spleen stiffness determined by spleen-dedicated device accurately predicted esophageal varices in cirrhosis patients

Background

The advantages of spleen stiffness in prediction of high-risk varices (HRV) in cirrhosis patients have been confirmed. Recently, a new device utilizing a 100 Hz probe dedicated to spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) was developed.

Objectives

To validate the clinical applicability of SSM@100 Hz in predicting HRV by comparing it with other non-invasive tests (NITs).

Design

A prospective cohort study.

Methods

A total of 171 cirrhosis patients who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) examination were included in this study. SSM using a 100 Hz probe and liver stiffness measurement using a 50 Hz probe were performed. Additionally, 22 healthy controls underwent spleen stiffness evaluation using the 100 Hz probe.

Results

The failure rates of spleen stiffness examination in patients with cirrhosis and in healthy controls were 2.9% and 4.5%, respectively. The means of SSM values were 56.4 ± 21.6 and 13.8 ± 6.7 kPa in cirrhosis and controls. SSM increased proportionally with the severity of esophageal varices. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for spleen stiffness in predicting HRV was 0.881 (95% confidence interval 0.829-0.934), with a cutoff value of 43.4 kPa. The accuracy, false negative rate and EGD spare rate were 86.5%, 2.5% and 24.3%, respectively. For HRV prediction, SSM was comparable to expanded Baveno VI and VII and superior to other NITs. As to viral versus non-viral cirrhosis and compensated versus decompensated cirrhosis, the cut-off and performance of SSM were different.

Conclusion

SSM@100 Hz demonstrates high accuracy in predicting HRV with a low missed HRV rate. Our findings suggest that SSM@100 Hz can be used independently due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, further studies are needed to determine appropriate cutoff values based on the cause of cirrhosis and liver function.

Trail Registration

ChiCTR2300070270.

Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L).

AIMS

To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement.

METHODS

We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events.

RESULTS

We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.

EASL-ERN position paper on liver involvement in patients with Fontan-type circulation

Fontan-type surgery is the final step in the sequential palliative surgical treatment of infants born with a univentricular heart. The resulting long-term haemodynamic changes promote liver damage, leading to Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD), in virtually all patients with Fontan circulation. Owing to the lack of a uniform definition of FALD and the competitive risk of other complications developed by Fontan patients, the impact of FALD on the prognosis of these patients is currently debatable. However, based on the increasing number of adult Fontan patients and recent research interest, the European Association for The Study of the Liver and the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Diseases thought a position paper timely. The aims of the current paper are: (1) to provide a clear definition and description of FALD, including clinical, analytical, radiological, haemodynamic, and histological features; (2) to facilitate guidance for staging the liver disease; and (3) to provide evidence- and experience-based recommendations for the management of different clinical scenarios.

THE ROLE OF ELASTOGRAPHY IN CLINICALLY SIGNIFICANT PORTAL HYPERTENSION

• In compensated cirrhosis, using non-invasive methods would exempt the patient from the need of an endoscopy. • The Baveno VII presented the "rule of 5" for Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography; liver stiffness measurement ≤15 kPa and platelets >150.000/mm3 exclude clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), while when ≥25 kPa is highly suggestive of CSPH. • Spleen stiffness measurement has been proposed as a more specific technique to predict the presence of CSPH. • Elastography has gained prestige in the non-invasive evaluation of patients with advanced chronic liver disease by allowing prophylactic measures to be taken when suggesting the presence of CSPH. This is a narrative review that aims to discuss the importance of elastographic methods in the evaluation of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in cirrhotic patients, where the authors propose an algorithm for evaluating these patients. In compensated advanced chronic liver disease, the goal is to prevent the development of CSPH and, in those already with CSPH, prevent the appearance of gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and other complications of portal hypertension. In compensated cirrhosis, the prevalence of GEV is 30-40%, of which 10-20% are at risk of bleeding. Therefore, using non-invasive methods would exempt the patient from the need of an endoscopy. Hepatic Elastography is a non-invasive, safe, reproducible method, available through many techniques: Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography (VCTE), Shear Wave Elastography (SWE) and Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE). The Baveno VII presented the "rule of 5" for VCTE: liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≤15 kPa and platelets >150.000/mm3 exclude CSPH, while an LSM ≥25 kPa is highly suggestive of CSPH. Also, the "rule of 4" for SWE has been proposed: patients with ≥17 kPa could be considered as having CSPH. At last, spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) has been proposed as a more specific technique to predict the presence of CSPH. In conclusion, elastography has gained prestige in the non-invasive evaluation of patients with advanced chronic liver disease by allowing prophylactic measures to be taken when suggesting the presence of CSPH.

Accuracy of spleen stiffness measurement for the diagnosis of clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of clinically significant portal hypertension is crucial for prognosis and treatment guidance in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) might improve the non-invasive diagnosis of clinically significant portal hypertension, but previous studies have reported heterogeneous SSM cutoffs. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of SSM and SSM-based algorithms in this setting.

METHODS

In this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library from database inception to Dec 31, 2022, for articles, abstracts, and letters, with no restrictions on language. Cross-sectional studies reporting hepatic venous pressure gradient and SSM by different techniques (transient elastography; two-dimensional shear-wave elastography [2D-SWE]; point shear-wave elastography [p-SWE]) in adults (≥18 years) with compensated ACLD were eligible for inclusion. The main outcome was the diagnostic performance of two SSM-based algorithms, with the Baveno VII model as a reference, evaluating sensitivity and specificity, as well as summary negative predictive values (NPVs) and positive predictive values (PPVs). In the Baveno VII model, clinically significant portal hypertension was ruled out if patients had a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of 15 kPa or less and a platelet count of 150 × 109 platelets per L or higher and ruled in if they had an LSM of greater than 25 kPa. The two SSM-based models combined these same cutoffs with additional criteria. In the Baveno VII-SSM single cutoff model, clinically significant portal hypertension was ruled out if at least two of the following were present: LSM of 15 kPa or less, platelet count of 150 × 109 platelets per L or higher, and SSM of 40 kPa or less; and ruled in if at least two were present: LSM of greater than 25 kPa, platelet count of less than 150 × 109 platelets per L, and SSM of greater than 40 kPa. The Baveno VII-SSM dual cutoff model used the same criteria, but with a cutoff of SSM of less than 21 kPa to rule out, and greater than 50 kPa to rule in, clinically significant portal hypertension. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019127164.

FINDINGS

Of the 44 records assessed for eligibility, 17 studies (with 1245 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. In the transient elastography cohort (n=600), the Baveno VII algorithm was validated for both ruling out (NPV 100%, 95% CI 64-100; sensitivity 100%, 95% CI 70-100) and ruling in (PPV 95%, 85-98; specificity 94%, 95% CI 87-97) clinically significant portal hypertension, but the proportion of patients with indeterminate results (grey zone) was 48% (95% CI 44-52); 57% (95% CI 52-62) of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension were included in the rule-in zone. The Baveno VII-SSM dual cutoff model had adequate NPV (98%, 95% CI 58-100; sensitivity 100%, 95% CI 91-100) and PPV (93%, 95% CI 84-97; specificity 89%, 95% CI 84-93), with 32% (95% CI 28-36) of patients in the grey zone; 76% (95% CI 72-80) of the patients with clinically significant portal hypertension were in the rule-in zone. The Baveno VII-SSM single cutoff model had a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI 85-97) and a NPV of 85% (95% CI 60-96) for ruling out, and a specificity of 86% (95% CI 80-91) and a PPV of 92% (95% CI 83-95) for ruling in, clinically significant portal hypertension. 88% (95% CI 84-91) of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension were included in the rule-in zone and 9% (95% CI 7-12) of patients were in the grey zone. In the 2D-SWE cohort (n=225), all three algorithms could safely rule in clinically significant portal hypertension with adequate PPV (≥90%), but NPV was inadequate for ruling out clinically significant portal hypertension. Insufficient data were available to evaluate the performance of SSM assessed by p-SWE. Heterogeneity was low (I2<25%) for most estimates.

INTERPRETATION

Algorithms combining Baveno VII criteria with SSM showed good performance and reduced the diagnostic grey zone for clinically significant portal hypertension compared with Baveno VII criteria alone. Future studies should evaluate whether SSM-based diagnosis allows for the identification of patients who would benefit from non-selective β-blocker treatment.

FUNDING

None.

Combined model with acoustic radiation force impulse to rule out high-risk varices in HBV-related cirrhosis with viral suppression

AIMS

To prospectively evaluate the performance of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) via acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging combined with platelet counts (PLT) in ruling out HRV in HBV-related cirrhotic patients with viral suppression.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis enrolled between June 2020-March 2022 were divided into a derivation cohort and validation cohort. LSM and SSM ARFI-based, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) were performed at enrollment.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, overall, 236 HBV-related cirrhotic patients with maintained viral suppression were enrolled, and the prevalence of HRV was 19.5% (46/236). With the aim of identifying HRV, the most accurate LSM and SSM cut-offs were chosen of 1.46 m/s and 2.28 m/s, respectively. The combined model (LSM<1.46 m/s and PLT>150 × 109/L strategy combined with SSM ≤ 2.28 m/s) can spare 38.6% of EGDs and 4.3% of HRV cases were misclassified. In the validation cohort, we analysed 323 HBV-related cirrhotic patients with maintained viral suppression and validated the combined model can spare 33.4% (108/323) of EGD, and the HRV missed rate was 3.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

A non-invasive prediction model combining LSM<1.46 m/s and PLT>150 × 109/L strategy with SSM ≤ 2.28 m/s exhibited excellent performance in ruling out HRV and avoided a significantly large number (38.6% vs 33.4%) of unnecessary EGDs in HBV-related cirrhotic patients with viral suppression.

New Algorithm Rules Out Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure Development within 28 Days from Acute Decompensation of Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Approximately 10% of patients with acute decompensated (AD) cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) within 28 days. Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict. Therefore, we aimed to establish and validate an algorithm to identify these patients on hospitalization.

METHODS

Hospitalized patients with AD who developed ACLF within 28 days were considered pre-ACLF. Organ dysfunction was defined according to the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) criteria, and proven bacterial infection was taken to indicate immune system dysfunction. A retrospective multicenter cohort and prospective one were used to derive and to validate the potential algorithm, respectively. A miss rate of <5% was acceptable for the calculating algorithm to rule out pre-ACLF.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort (n=673), 46 patients developed ACLF within 28 days. Serum total bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and present proven bacterial infection at admission were associated with the development of ACLF. AD patients with ≥2 organ dysfunctions had a higher risk for pre-ACLF patients [odds ratio=16.581 95% confidence interval: (4.271-64.363), p<0.001]. In the derivation cohort, 67.5% of patients (454/673) had ≤1 organ dysfunction and two patients (0.4%) were pre-ACLF, with a miss rate of 4.3% (missed/total, 2/46). In the validation cohort, 65.9% of patients (914/1388) had ≤1 organ dysfunction, and four (0.3%) of them were pre-ACLF, with a miss rate of 3.4% (missed/total, 4/117).

CONCLUSIONS

AD patients with ≤1 organ dysfunction had a significantly lower risk of developing ACLF within 28 days of admission and could be safely ruled out with a pre-ACLF miss rate of <5%.

Can Liver Ultrasound Elastography Predict the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

The role of liver stiffness (LS) on ultrasound elastography in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after treatment with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is still unclear. Our aim was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether LS can predict the recurrence of HCC after RFA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Medline via PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases, and abstracts of international conference proceedings were searched up to June 30, 2020. Cohort studies were included if they assessed the association between LS values measured by ultrasound elastography before RFA and HCC recurrence.

RESULTS

9 studies including 1373 patients with HCC treated by RFA, 643 of whom developed HCC recurrence, were identified. The mean value of LS before RFA was significantly higher in patients who developed HCC recurrence than in those who did not (weighted mean difference=11.98 kPa, 95%CI: 7.60-16.35, I2=63.8%). There was a significant positive association between LS value and HCC recurrence both at univariate (unadjusted HR=1.03, 95%CI: 1.00-1.07, I2=72.7%) and multivariate analysis (adjusted HR=1.03, 95%CI: 1.02-1.04, I2=0). Patients with LS value ≥13-14 kPa or >1.5 m/s have a higher risk of both HCC recurrence (unadjusted HR=2.18, 95%CI: 1.46-3.25, I2=49.7%; adjusted HR=2.41, 95%CI: 1.53-3.79, I2=0) and overall mortality (adjusted HR=4.38; 95%CI: 2.33-8.25, I2=0) in comparison with those with LS below these cutoffs.

CONCLUSION

Liver ultrasound elastography appears to be a reliable tool to predict HCC recurrence and overall survival after RFA. This technique may be useful for the management of patients with HCC treated by RFA.

Prognostic value of non-invasive scores based on liver stiffness measurement, spleen diameter and platelets in HIV-infected patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People living with HIV (PLWH) are at high risk for advanced chronic liver disease and related adverse outcomes. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of non-invasive scores based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and on markers of portal hypertension (PH), namely platelets and spleen diameter, in PLWH.

METHODS

We combined data from eight international cohorts of PLWH with available non-invasive scores, including LSM and the composite biomarkers liver stiffness-spleen size-to-platelet ratio score (LSPS), LSM-to-Platelet ratio (LPR) and PH risk score. Incidence and predictors of all-cause mortality, any liver-related event and classical hepatic decompensation were determined by survival analysis, controlling for competing risks for the latter two. Non-invasive scores were assessed and compared using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

We included 1695 PLWH (66.8% coinfected with hepatitis C virus). During a median follow-up of 4.7 (interquartile range 2.8-7.7) years, the incidence rates of any liver-related event, all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation were 13.7 per 1000 persons-year (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4-16.3), 13.8 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 11.6-16.4) and 9.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 8.1-12.2), respectively. The AUROC of LSM was similar to that of the composite biomarkers, ranging between 0.83 and 0.86 for any liver-related event, 0.79-0.85 for all-cause mortality and 0.87-0.88 for classical hepatic decompensation. All individual non-invasive scores remained independent predictors of clinical outcomes in multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-invasive scores based on LSM, spleen diameter and platelets predict clinical outcomes in PLWH. Composite biomarkers do not achieve higher prognostic performance compared to LSM alone.

The interplay between sarcopenia and portal hypertension predicts ascites and mortality in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The role of sarcopenia in predicting decompensation other than hepatic encephalopathy is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of sarcopenia, assessed by computed tomography (CT), in the development of ascites and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) outside the liver transplantation (LT) setting.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated ACLD patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) >10 kPa and an available CT scan within 6 months. Sarcopenia was defined as skeletal muscle index (SMI) <50 and <39 cm²/m², respectively, in men and women. Competing risk regression models were used to assess the variables associated with the main outcomes.

RESULTS

209 patients were included in the final analysis and sarcopenia was present in 134 (64.1%). During a median follow-up of 37 (20-63) months, 52 patients developed ascites, 24 underwent LT, and 30 died. Sarcopenia was found a predictive factor of decompensation with ascites (SHR 2.083, 95%-CI: 1.091-3.978), independently from the features of clinically significant portal hypertension (LSM≥21 kPa or portosystemic shunts). Sarcopenia (SHR: 2.744, 95%-CI: 1.105-6.816) and LSM≥21 kPa (SHR: 3.973, 95%-CI: 1.548-10.197) were independent risk factors for increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia and portal hypertension are two major and independent risk factors for decompensation with ascites and mortality in cirrhotic patients outside the LT context.

Outstanding feasibility of spleen stiffness measurement by 100-Hz vibration-controlled transient elastography

This novel spleen-dedicated FibroScan has high success rate and is easy to operate. The spleen stiffness is correlated with liver stiffness, which reflects the liver fibrosis stage. However, whether SSM is able to reflect the severity of liver disease warrants further observation.

Spleen Stiffness Measurement Across the Spectrum of Liver Disease Patients in Real-World Practice

Objectives

Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) provides a non-invasive surrogate marker for clinical significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Results obtained in highly selected populations were promising but require validation across the spectrum of liver disease. We aimed to investigate the clinical applicability of SSM in a real-world setting.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled patients referred for liver ultrasound (January-May 2021). Patients with a portosystemic shunt, liver transplant, or extrahepatic etiology of portal hypertension were excluded. We performed liver ultrasound, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM (dedicated software, 100 Hz-probe). Probable CSPH was established if ≥1 of the following items occurred: ascites, varices, encephalopathy, splenomegaly, recanalized umbilical vein, collaterals, dilated portal veins, hypertensive gastropathy, or LSM ≥25 kPa.

Results

We enrolled 185 patients (53% male; age 53years [37-64], 33% viral hepatitis, 21% fatty liver disease). Of them, 31% of patients had cirrhosis (68% Child-Pugh A) and 38% of patients had signs of portal hypertension. SSM (23.8 kPa [16.2-42.3]) and LSM (6.7 kPa [4.6-12.0]) were successful and met reliability criteria in 70% and 95%, respectively. Spleen size was inversely associated with SSM failure (odds ratio: 0.66 increment/cm, 95% confidence interval: 0.52-0.82). Optimal spleen stiffness cut-off to detect probable CSPH was >26.5 kPa (likelihood ratio: 4.5, sensitivity: 83%; specificity: 82%). Spleen stiffness did not outperform liver stiffness in detecting probable CSPH (P = 1.0).

Conclusions

In real-world practice, reliable SSM were obtained in 70% and could potentially stratify patients between high- and low-risk of probable CSPH. However, cut-offs for CSPH might be substantially lower than previously reported. Future studies validating these results are required.

Clinical trial number

Netherlands Trial Register (Registration number: NL9369).

Liver cirrhosis in children - the role of imaging in the diagnostic pathway

Liver cirrhosis in children is a rare disease with multifactorial causes that are distinct from those in adults. Underlying reasons include cholestatic, viral, autoimmune, hereditary, metabolic and cardiac disorders. Early detection of fibrosis is important as clinical stabilization or even reversal of fibrosis can be achieved in some disorders with adequate treatment. This article focuses on the longitudinal evaluation of children with chronic liver disease with noninvasive imaging tools, which play an important role in detecting cirrhosis, defining underlying causes, grading fibrosis and monitoring patients during follow-up. Ultrasound is the primary imaging modality and it is used in a multiparametric fashion. Magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography are usually applied second line for refined tissue characterization, clarification of nodular lesions and full delineation of abdominal vessels, including portosystemic communications.

High accuracy of spleen stiffness measurement in diagnosing clinically significant portal hypertension in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) has been tested in a limited number of studies versus hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), especially with the 100 Hz spleen-specific module. The current study aims to evaluate the diagnostic performance of this novel module for detecting clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in a cohort of compensated patients with metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) as the main aetiology and to improve the performance of the Baveno VII criteria for CSPH diagnosis by including SSM.

METHODS

This is a retrospective single-centre study including patients with available measurements of HVPG, Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM by VCTE with the 100 Hz module. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis was conducted to identify dual cut-offs (rule-out and rule-in) associated with the absence/presence of CSPH. The diagnostic algorithms were adequate if negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV) were >90%.

RESULTS

A total of 85 patients were included, 60 MAFLD and 25 non-MAFLD. SSM showed a good correlation with HVPG (MAFLD: r = .74; p < .0001; non-MAFLD: r = .62; p < .0011). In MAFLD patients, SSM had a high accuracy in discarding/diagnosing CSPH (cut-off values of <40.9 and >49.9 kPa, AUC 0.95). The addition of these cut-offs in a sequential or combined approach to the Baveno VII criteria significantly reduced the grey zone (60% vs. 15%-20%), while maintaining adequate NPV and PPV.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the utility of SSM for diagnosing CSPH in MAFLD patients and demonstrate that the addition of SSM to the Baveno VII criteria increases accuracy.

Development and validation of a machine learning-based model for varices screening in compensated cirrhosis (CHESS2001): an international multicenter study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prevalence of high-risk varices (HRV) is low among compensated cirrhotic patients undergoing EGD. Our study aimed to identify a novel machine learning (ML)-based model, named ML EGD, for ruling out HRV and avoiding unnecessary EGDs in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

An international cohort from 17 institutions from China, Singapore, and India were enrolled (CHESS2001). The variables with the top 3 importance scores (liver stiffness, platelet count, and total bilirubin) were selected by the Shapley additive explanation and input into a light gradient-boosting machine algorithm to develop ML EGD for identification of HRV. Furthermore, we built a web-based calculator for ML EGD, which is free with open access (http://www.pan-chess.cn/calculator/MLEGD_score). Unnecessary EGDs that were not performed and the rates of missed HRV were used to assess the efficacy and safety for varices screening.

RESULTS

Of 2794 enrolled patients, 1283 patients formed a real-world cohort from 1 university hospital in China used to develop and internally validate the performance of ML EGD for varices screening. They were randomly assigned into the training (n = 1154) and validation (n = 129) cohorts with a ratio of 9:1. In the training cohort, ML EGD spared 607 (52.6%) unnecessary EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.6%. In the validation cohort, ML EGD spared 75 (58.1%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 1.4%. To externally test the performance of ML EGD, 966 patients from 14 university hospitals in China (test cohort 1) and 545 from 2 hospitals in Singapore and India (test cohort 2) comprised the 2 test cohorts. In test cohort 1, ML EGD spared 506 (52.4%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 2.8%. In test cohort 2, ML EGD spared 224 (41.1%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.1%. When compared with the Baveno VI criteria, ML EGD spared more screening EGDs in all cohorts (training cohort, 52.6% vs 29.4%; validation cohort, 58.1% vs 44.2%; test cohort 1, 52.4% vs 26.5%; test cohort 2, 41.1% vs 21.1%, respectively; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a novel model based on liver stiffness, platelet count, and total bilirubin, named ML EGD, as a free web-based calculator. ML EGD could efficiently help rule out HRV and avoid unnecessary EGDs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT04307264.).

Non-invasive tools for compensated advanced chronic liver disease and portal hypertension after Baveno VII - an update

Non-invasive tests (NITs) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in particular, have entered clinical practice over 20 years ago as point-of-care tests to diagnose liver fibrosis in patients with compensated chronic liver disease. Since then, NITs use has evolved thanks to a large number of studies in all major etiologies of liver disease, and they have become important tools to stratify the risk of portal hypertension and liver-related events. The Baveno VII consensus workshop provided several novel recommendations regarding the use of well-established and novel NITs in the specific setting of portal hypertension screening, diagnosis and follow-up. The Baveno VII expert panels paid special attention to summarizing the existing data into simple clinical rules able to guide clinicians in their practice. The "rule of five" for LSM is a tool to stratify the risk of liver-related events, and LSM alone or in combination with platelet count, can be used now to rule-in and rule-out compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and clinically significant portal hypertension, as well as to rule-out high-risk varices. Use of NITs in obese subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and patients with viral hepatitis C that has been successfully treated, require specific knowledge. This review will update the reader on these aspects.

Baveno VII algorithm outperformed other models in ruling out high-risk varices in individuals with HBV-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The Baveno VII consensus recommends that spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) ≤40 kPa is safe for ruling out high-risk varices (HRVs) and avoiding endoscopic screening in patients who do not meet the Baveno VI criteria. This study aimed to validate the performance of the Baveno VII algorithm in individuals with HBV-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

Consecutive individuals with HBV-related cirrhosis who underwent liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM - using a 50 Hz shear wave frequency, spleen diameter measurement, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) were prospectively enrolled from June 2020. A 100 Hz probe has been adopted for additional SSM assessment since July 2021.

RESULTS

From June 2020 to January 2022, 996 patients were screened and 504 were enrolled for analysis. Among the 504 patients in whom SSM was assessed using a 50 Hz probe, the Baveno VII algorithm avoided more EGDs (56.7% vs. 39.1%, p <0.001) than Baveno VI criteria, with a comparable missed HRV rate (3.8% vs. 2.5%). Missed HRV rates were >5% for all other measures: 11.3% for LSM-longitudinal spleen diameter to platelet ratio score, 20.0% for platelet count/longitudinal spleen diameter ratio, and 8.8% for Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-hepatitis. SSM@100 Hz was assessed in 232 patients, and the Baveno VII algorithm with SSM@100 Hz spared more EGDs (75.4% vs. 59.5%, p <0.001) than that with SSM@50 Hz, both with a missed HRV rate of 3.0% (1/33).

CONCLUSIONS

We validated the Baveno VII algorithm, demonstrating the excellent performance of SSM@50 Hz and SSM@100 Hz in ruling out HRV in individuals with HBV-related cirrhosis. Furthermore, the Baveno VII algorithm with SSM@100 Hz could safely rule out more EGDs than that with SSM@50 Hz.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT04890730.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The Baveno VII guideline proposed that for patients who do not meet the Baveno VI criteria, SSM ≤40 kPa could avoid further unnecessary endoscopic screening. The current study validated the Baveno VII algorithm using 50 Hz and 100 Hz probes, which both exhibited excellent performance in ruling out HRVs in individuals with HBV-related cirrhosis. Compared with the Baveno VII algorithm with SSM@50 Hz, SSM@100 Hz had a better capability to safely rule out unnecessary EGDs. Baveno VII algorithm will be a practical tool to triage individuals with cirrhosis in future clinical practice.

Spleen stiffness in patients with chronic liver disease evaluated by 2-D shear wave elastography with ultrasound multiparametric imaging

BACKGROUND

The novel 2-D shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) can measure two ultrasound parameters: shear wave dispersion (SWD) and shear wave speed (SWS). We investigated the ability of 2D-SWE in measuring spleen stiffness using ultrasound multiparametric imaging.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included patients with chronic liver disease who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy and ultrasonographic examinations of the spleen between September 2018 and December 2021. In total, 157 patients were enrolled in this study: 81 and 67 patients were included in the pilot set for hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurements and validation cohort without HVPG measurements, respectively. To confirm reproducibility between the two examiners, an additional 30 patients were enrolled.

RESULTS

The Bland-Altman plots revealed no significant bias in the SWD as measured by two examiners. The splenic SWS (r = 0.752) and SWD (r = 0.444) were correlated with the HVPG. Regarding high-risk varices, as per the Youden index, the cut-off value for splenic SWS was 3.30 m/s, with a sensitivity of 85.7%, specificity of 92.5%, positive predictive value of 85.7%, and negative predictive value of 92.4% in the pilot set. In the validation set, good diagnostic performance by the splenic SWS was observed. However, SWD did not perform as well as SWS.

CONCLUSIONS

The splenic SWS, measured using ultrasound multiparametric imaging, was closely correlated with the HVPG. Thus, SWS is a useful predictive marker for high-risk varices.

SWOT analysis of noninvasive tests for diagnosing NAFLD with severe fibrosis: an expert review by the JANIT Forum

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an advanced form of NAFLD can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, the prognosis of NAFLD/NASH has been reported to be dependent on liver fibrosis degree. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard, but it has several issues that must be addressed, including its invasiveness, cost, and inter-observer diagnosis variability. To solve these issues, a variety of noninvasive tests (NITs) have been in development for the assessment of NAFLD progression, including blood biomarkers and imaging methods, although the use of NITs varies around the world. The aim of the Japan NASH NIT (JANIT) Forum organized in 2020 is to advance the development of various NITs to assess disease severity and/or response to treatment in NAFLD patients from a scientific perspective through multi-stakeholder dialogue with open innovation, including clinicians with expertise in NAFLD/NASH, companies that develop medical devices and biomarkers, and professionals in the pharmaceutical industry. In addition to conventional NITs, artificial intelligence will soon be deployed in many areas of the NAFLD landscape. To discuss the characteristics of each NIT, we conducted a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis in this study with the 36 JANIT Forum members (16 physicians and 20 company representatives). Based on this SWOT analysis, the JANIT Forum identified currently available NITs able to accurately select NAFLD patients at high risk of NASH for HCC surveillance/therapeutic intervention and evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions.

MELD score < 18 rule out 28-day ACLF development among inpatients with hepatitis B-related previous compensated liver disease

The acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development is highly dynamic. Currently, no satisfactory algorithm identifies patients with HBV at risk of this complication. The aim of the study was to characterize ACLF development in hospitalized HBV-related patients without previous decompensation and to test the performance of traditional prognostic models in ruling out ACLF development within 28 days on admission we conducted a cohort study. Two multi-center cohorts with hospitalized HBV-related previous compensated patients were analyzed. Performances of MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C AD, and CLIF-C ACLF-D in ruling out ACLF development within 28 days were compared and further validated by ROC analyses. In the derivation cohort (n = 892), there were 102 patients developed ACLF within 28 days, with profound systemic inflammatory levels and higher 28-day mortality rate (31.4% vs. 1.0%) than those without ACLF development. The MELD score (cut-off = 18) achieved acceptable missing rate (missed/total ACLF development) at 2.9%. In the validation cohort (n = 1656), the MELD score (<18) was able to rule out ACLF development within 28 days with missing rate at 3.0%. ACLF development within 28 days were both lower than 1% (0.6%, derivation cohort; 0.5%, validation cohort) in patients with MELD < 18. While in patients with MELD ≥ 18, 26.6% (99/372, derivation cohort) and 17.8% (130/732, validation cohort) developed into ACLF within 28 days, respectively. While MELD-Na score cut-off at 20 and CLIF-AD score cut-off at 42 did not have consistent performance in our two cohorts. MELD < 18 was able to safely rule out patients with ACLF development within 28 days in HBV-related patients without previous decompensation, which had a high 28-day mortality.

A Combined Baveno VII and Spleen Stiffness Algorithm to Improve the Noninvasive Diagnosis of Clinically Significant Portal Hypertension in Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

A noninvasive diagnosis of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) has important prognostic and therapeutic implications for patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. We aimed to validate and improve the available algorithms for the CSPH diagnosis by evaluating spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study including patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥10 kPa, no previous decompensation, and available measurements of hepatic venous pressure gradient, LSM, and SSM by transient elastography referring to our center in Bologna. The diagnostic algorithms were adequate if negative and positive predictive values were >90% when ruling out and ruling in CSPH, respectively; these models were validated in a cohort from Verona. The 5-year decompensation rate was reported.

RESULTS

One hundred fourteen patients were included in the derivation cohort. The Baveno VII diagnostic algorithm (LSM ≤15 kPa + platelet count ≥150 × 10 9 /L to rule out CSPH and LSM >25 kPa to rule in CSPH) was validated; however, 40%-60% of the patients remained in the gray zone. The addition of SSM (40 kPa) to the model significantly reduced the gray zone to 7%-15%, maintaining adequate negative and positive predictive values. The diagnostic algorithms were validated in a cohort of 81 patients from Verona. All first decompensation events occurred in the "rule-in" zone of the model including SSM.

DISCUSSION

The addition of SSM significantly improves the clinical applicability of the algorithm based on LSM and platelet count for CSPH diagnosis. Our models can be used to noninvasively identify candidates for nonselective beta-blocker treatment and patients at a high risk of decompensation.

Portal Hypertension in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: From Pathogenesis to Clinical Practice

Portal hypertension in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) mostly occur in cirrhotic stage. However, several experimental and clinical studies showed evidence of portal hypertension in NAFLD without significant or advance fibrosis. This early development of portal hypertension in NAFLD is associated with liver sinusoidal contraction by hepatocellular lipid accumulation and ballooning, which is also accompanied by capillarization and dysfunction of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells. Both of these impaired mechanical and molecular components can cause an increase in intrahepatic vascular resistance which lead to the increase of portal pressure in the absence of significant liver fibrosis. Extrahepatic factors such as insulin resistance and gut dysbiosis may also contribute to liver sinusoidal endothelial dysfunction and early portal hypertension in NAFLD. The clinical impact of early portal hypertension in NAFLD is still unclear. However, clinical tools for diagnosis and monitoring of portal hypertension in NAFLD are being investigated to predict high-risk patients and to guide therapy.

Noninvasive diagnostic value of indocyanine green retention test in patients with esophagogastric varices in liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the value of the indocyanine green retention test (ICG-R15) as a noninvasive predictor of gastroesophageal varices (GOV) in cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 629 patients with cirrhosis who were admitted to Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University between June 2016 and September 2020 (450 in the trial group and 179 in the validation group) were selected. The trial group was divided into a GOV group and a non-GOV group based on gastroscopic findings. The two group's ICG results, clinical hematological, biochemical, and ultrasound parameters were compared. A predictive model for the noninvasive diagnosis of GOV was developed by applying binary logistic regression analysis and compared with previous common noninvasive diagnostic methods, followed by model validation in a validation group.

RESULTS

ICG-R15 is positively correlated with the degree of varicose veins. Univariate and multifactorial logistic regression analyses showed that PLT, PT, ICG-R15, splenic length, splenic vein diameter, and the presence of ascites were independent predictors of GOV. Predictive equation 1 for GOV was constructed based on the above factors: Logistic (Y1) = 1.327 × PLT + 0.691 × PT + 1.110 × ICG-R15 + 0.581 × SVD + 0.815 × SD + 1.130 × presence of ascites - 2.133, which predicted GOV in cirrhosis with an AUC of 0.861, sensitivity 84.5%, and specificity 74.1%. As the internal diameter of the splenic vein and the long diameter of the spleen are influenced by subjective factors and data are not easily available, we removed these two factors and constructed the prediction equation logistic (Y2) = 1.516 × PLT + 0.856 × PT + 1.135 × R15 + 1.297 × presence of ascites - 1.513. AUC for predicting GOV was also high at 0.850, with a sensitivity of 75.3% and a specificity of 83.2%. Similar results were obtained in the validation group. However, the previous GOV prediction models ARPI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, FI, and King had AUCs of 0.731, 0.643, 0.781, 0.763, 0.735, and 0.730, respectively, in our trial group, with only low-to-moderate diagnostic efficacy.

CONCLUSION

ICG-R15 correlates with the severity of GOV in cirrhosis, and the models based on it can further improve the noninvasive diagnostic efficacy of GOV.

Non-invasive diagnosis and follow-up of portal hypertension

Compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) describes the spectrum of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in asymptomatic patients at risk of developing clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, defined by a hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥10 mmHg). Patients with cACLD are at high risk of liver-related morbidity and mortality. In patients at risk of chronic liver disease, cACLD is strongly suggested by a liver stiffness (LSM) value >15 kPa or clinical/biological/radiological signs of portal hypertension, and ruled out by LSM <10 kPa, or Fibrotest® ≤0.58, or Fibrometer® ≤0.786. Patients with chronic liver disease (excluding vascular diseases) with a LSM <10 kPa are at low risk of developing portal hypertension complications. The presence of CSPH can be strongly suspected when LSM is ≥20 kPa. In a patient without clinical, endoscopic or radiological features of portal hypertension, measurement of the HVPG is recommended before major liver or intra-abdominal surgery, before extra-hepatic transplantation and in patients with unexplained ascites. Endoscopic screening for oesophageal varices can be avoided in patients with LSM <20 kPa and a platelet count >150 G/L (favourable Baveno VI criteria) at the time of diagnosis. There is no non-invasive method alternative for oeso-gastroduodenal endoscopy in patients with unfavourable Baveno criteria (liver stiffness ≥20 kPa or platelet count ≤50 G/l). Platelet count and liver stiffness measurements must be performed once a year in patients with cACLD with favourable Baveno VI criteria at the time of diagnosis. A screening oeso-gastroduodenal endoscopy is recommended if Baveno VI criteria become unfavourable.

A strategy for varices screening based on acoustic radiation force impulse combined with platelet (CHESS2001): An alternative of Baveno VI criteria

Few studies have reported on acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) for varices screening. Our study aimed to identify a strategy based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by ARFI combined with platelet count (PLT), named the ARP strategy, for ruling out high-risk varices (HRV) and avoiding unnecessary esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) in patients with compensated cirrhosis. We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent ARFI from a previous cohort (NCT04307264). Of them, patients between 2017 and 2019 composed the training cohort to develop the ARP strategy. The validation cohort consisted of others between 2015 and 2016 to validate and compare it with Baveno VI criteria about the performance for varices screening. Primary outcomes were the rates of spared EGDs and HRV missed. A total of 741 consecutive patients were included in the final analysis. Of them, 576 patients were included in the training cohort and 165 patients in the validation cohort. In the training cohort, ARP strategy was defined as LSM < 1.805 m/s or SSM < 2.445 m/s and PLT > 110 × 10⁹ /L. ARP strategy could spare 234 (40.6%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.4% (8 of 234). In the validation cohort, compared with Baveno VI criteria, the ARP strategy improved the proportion of avoided EGDs (49.7% vs. 34.5%; p < 0.001) and lowered the rate of misclassified HRV (1.2% vs. 3.5%; p < 0.001). Conclusion: The ARP strategy was an efficient and safe tool for varices screening in compensated cirrhosis, and it might be an auxiliary or even alternative to Baveno VI criteria.

High reproducibility of spleen stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography with a spleen-dedicated module

Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is a noninvasive technique for estimating portal hypertension in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD), with its reproducibility yet to be established and its feasibility still unknown beyond CLD. We have studied 420 participants from two tertiary referral centers for liver diseases (Novara, Milan): 297 patients with CLD (32% with cirrhosis) of different etiology (Group A), 63 Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (Group B), and 60 heathy volunteers (Group C). All underwent SSM by VCTE with a spleen-dedicated module (SSM@100 Hz) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM), blindly performed by 2 different operators. In total, 1680 VCTE examinations for SSM were performed (1000 in Novara, 680 in Milan), with an overall 3.2% failure rate. Median SSM was 26.5 kPa (interquartile range [IQR] 20.0-42.3) in Group A, 26.3 kPa (IQR 22.3-33.6) in Group B, and 16.1 kPa (IQR 14.6-18.7) in Group C. In Group A, the median LSM was 6.8 kPa (IQR 4.9-11.3) in Novara and 8.3 kPa (IQR 7.1-10.8) in Milan, the proportion of patients with cirrhosis being 34% in Novara and 31% in Milan. The Group A interobserver agreement ICC was 0.90 (0.88-0.92), significantly lower in the absence of splenomegaly (ICC 0.87 vs. 0.91) and in absence of cirrhosis (ICC 0.84 vs. 0.90); overweight slightly, but not significantly reduced the interobserveragreement. The intra-observer agreement ICC ranged from 0.91 to 0.96 for the four operators. The Group B interobserver agreement ICC was 0.90 (0.83-0.94). In conclusion, SSM measured by the new spleen-dedicated VCTE module is a feasible, reliable, and highly reproducible tool in patients with CLD and hematological disorders, and in healthy volunteers.

Assessment of clinically significant portal hypertension by two-dimensional shear wave elastography

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To evaluate two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2DSWE) in parallel with transient elastography (TE) for diagnosing clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and high-risk varices (HRV) in patients with chronic liver disease.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Consecutive patients with suspicion of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) [liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 10 kPa by TE, or morphological signs suggestive of cACLD on imaging], with no history of liver decompensation, underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement, transjugular liver biopsy and esophagogastroduodenoscopy, which served as the reference methods for diagnosing CSPH, cACLD and HRV. All patients underwent LSM and spleen stiffness measurements (SSM) by 2DSWE and TE.

RESULTS

Seventy-six (76) patients were included (78% men, mean age 62 years, body mass index 28.3 kg/m² , 36.8% alcoholic, 30.3% non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, 14.5% viral hepatitis). Of them, 80.3%, 69.7%, 52.6% and 22.4% had cACLD, cirrhosis, CSPH and HRV respectively. LSM performed better than SSM in diagnosing CSPH and HRV. For CSPH, AUROCs (0.926 vs. 0.866), optimal cut-offs (20.1 vs. 20.2 kPa) and sensitivity/specificity (80.5%/94.3% vs. 77.5% /86.1%) were comparable for 2DSWE and TE. Ruling-out of CSPH by 2DSWE (LSM at cut-off with ≥90% sensitivity (13.5 kPa) and platelets ≥ 150 x 10⁹ /L) performed comparably to TE, with 1/24 cases falsely classified as negative. For HRV, AUROCs were similar (0.875 2DSWE, 0.851 TE) with similar optimal LSM cut-offs enabling 100% sensitivity and ruling-out HRV.

CONCLUSION

Liver stiffness measurement by 2DSWE appears to perform equally well as TE for diagnosing CSPH and ruling-out HRV in compensated chronic liver disease.

Application of Supersonic Shear Imaging to the Baveno VI Criteria and a Combination Model with Spleen Stiffness Measurement to Rule Out High-Risk Varices in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

PURPOSE

Recently, Colecchia et al. reported that by adding a spleen stiffness (SS) criterion sequentially to the Baveno VI criteria, screening endoscopy could be safely avoided. We aimed to compare the Baveno VI criteria, SS values and a sequential combination of the Baveno VI and SS values, measured by supersonic shear imaging (SSI), as approaches for safely avoiding screening endoscopy for high-risk varices (HRV).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between April 2017 and July 2018, we enrolled 274 compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients who had successfully undergone liver stiffness (LS) and SS measurements with SSI and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). 52 HRV patients were included, and we analyzed risk factors for HRV and compared proportions of patients who were spared EGD when Baveno VI criteria, SS cut-off and the combination of the two approaches were used.

RESULTS

The AUROC values for estimating HRV by platelet count, LS and SS were 0.701, 0.757 and 0.844, respectively, and all three measures were found to be independent predictors of HRV. The SS cut-off value for excluding HRV was ≤ 27.3 kPa. The percentages of patients spared EGD were 18.6 % for Baveno VI, 28.8 % for SS cut-off and 36.1 % for the sequential combination of Baveno VI and SS cut-off. Less than 2 % of HRV patients were missed when using all of the criteria.

CONCLUSION

The Baveno VI criteria can be applied to LS measurement by SSI. SS measurement by SSI is an excellent predictor of HRV. Screening endoscopy can be safely avoided when Baveno VI criteria and SS cut-off are applied together.

Ultrasonic spleen thickness-based indexes surpass Baveno VI criteria in high-risk gastroesophageal varices detection

AIMS

To evaluate the efficiency of ultrasonic spleen thickness (UST), routine variables and (expanded) Baveno VI criteria for high-risk gastroesophageal varices (HRGOV) detection in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

In total, 305 cirrhotic patients were retrospectively enrolled in the deriving cohort and 328 cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B sustained viral response were prospectively enrolled in the validation cohort. HRGOV was defined as medium and severe gastroesophageal varices (GOV), mild GOV with red signs or Child-Pugh C. The cut-offs for HRGOV were determined by likelihood ratio indicating strong evidences. Algorithms of Spleen thickness-Age-Liver stiffness measurement (LSM, by Fibroscan®)-Albumin (SALA) and Spleen thickness-Platelet-Albumin (SPA) were derived by multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

The area under receiver operating characteristics curve of SALA, SPA, UST, platelet, and LSM were 0.849, 0.835, 0.808, 0.746, and 0.655 in the deriving cohort, and improved to 0.901, 0.904, 0.858, 0.876, and 0.811 in the validation cohort, respectively. While SALA, SPA, UST, platelet, Baveno VI criteria (BVI), and expanded BVI spared 46.6%, 38.0%, 29.2%, 21.0%, 12.1%, and 23.6% esophagogastroduodenoscopy in the deriving cohort, these numbers were improved to 68.1%, 66.8%, 27.1%, 37.8%, 36.0%, and 61.0% in the validating cohort, respectively; however, the negative likelihood ratio of expanded BVI was up to 0.16. SPA spared less esophagogastroduodenoscopy than SALA, which can be supplemented by stepwise applying UST and SPA. Sequentially combining UST and SALA, BVI and SALA exempted additional 10-5% endoscopies.

CONCLUSIONS

SPA, without LSM, improves HRGOV detection comparing with BVI. UST based algorithms combination can achieve the best efficiency especially in sustained virus response hepatitis B.

Spleen Stiffness Measurements Predict the Risk of Hepatic Decompensation After Direct-Acting Antivirals in HCV Cirrhotic Patients

PURPOSE

Little evidence is available regarding the risk of hepatic decompensation (HD) after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with advanced chronic liver disease. Our aim was to assess the risk of decompensation and the prognostic role of noninvasive tests, such as liver (LSM) and spleen (SSM) stiffness measurements, in the prediction of decompensation after sustained virologic response (SVR) by DAAs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort study involving 146 cirrhotic patients treated with DAAs in our tertiary center with LSM and SSM available both before and six months after treatment (SVR24). A historical cohort of 92 consecutive cirrhotic patients with active HCV was used as a control group. A propensity score inverse probability weighting method was used to account for differences between the groups. Time-dependent models for the prediction of decompensation were applied to account for changes in noninvasive tests after therapy.

RESULTS

The decompensation incidence in the DAA cohort was 7.07 (4.56-10.96) per 100 person-years (PYs), which was significantly lower than in the active HCV cohort. The DAA therapy was an independent protective factor for HD development (SHR: 0.071, 95 %-CI: 0.015-0.332). SSM ≥ 54 kPa was independently associated with decompensation despite SVR achievement (SHR: 4.169, 95 %-CI: 1.050-16.559), alongside with a history of decompensation (SHR: 7.956, 95 %-CI: 2.556-24.762). SSM reduction < 10 % also predicted the risk of decompensation after SVR24.

CONCLUSION

The risk of decompensation was markedly reduced after DAA therapy, but it was not eliminated. Paired SSM values stratified the risk of decompensation after SVR better than other noninvasive tests.

A non-invasive model based on the virtual portal pressure gradient to predict the first variceal hemorrhage in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to establish a non-invasive model based on the virtual portal pressure gradient (vPPG) to predict the first variceal hemorrhage (VH) in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This single-center study prospectively enrolled cirrhotic patients as the training and validation cohorts during different time periods. The PPG-detection software (PPGS 1.0) was used to perform vPPG calculation, which involves 2 steps including three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of portal vein tree and subsequent application of computational fluid dynamics. All patients were given standard primary prophylaxis against VH and followed up for 2 years. Data from the training cohort were assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses, by which a nomogram with its dynamic form was developed to estimate the probability of VH.

RESULTS

In the training cohort (n = 128), 37 (28.9%) experienced VH during 2-year follow-up. Four variables including vPPG ≥ 10.5 mmHg (p < 0.001), PLT < 56 × 10⁹/L (p = 0.048), albumin < 32 g/L (p < 0.001) and INR ≥ 1.2 (p = 0.022) were identified as independent risk factors of VH, among which vPPG showed the best diagnostic performance (AUC 0.875). Subsequently, these predictors were incorporated into the nomogram, of which C-indexes were 0.891 and 0.926 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves demonstrated a great calibration ability of the model. At the threshold probabilities of 0.1-0.6 (1 year) and 0.1-1.0 (2 years), this nomogram could offer more net benefits in decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The vPPG-based nomogram could be used for risk stratification of the first VH in patients with cirrhosis.