Endpoints and design of clinical trials in patients with decompensated cirrhosis: Position paper of the LiverHope Consortium

Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 Levels Reflect Muscle and Bone Health and Determine Complications and Mortality in Decompensated Cirrhosis

Background

The growth hormone-insulin-like growth factor (GH-IGF-1) axis and its impairment with sarcopenia, frailty, bone health, complications, and prognosis are not well characterized in cirrhosis.

Methods

We investigated the adult decompensated cirrhosis out-patients at a tertiary care institute between 2021 and 2023 for serum GH and IGF-1 levels, and associated them with sarcopenia (CT-SMI in cm2/m2), liver frailty index (LFI), osteodystrophy (DEXA), clinical decompensations (overall, ascites, encephalopathy, infection, and bleed), and survival up to 180 days.

Results

One-hundred-seventy-two patients, 95% males, aged 46.5 years (median). logIGF-1 levels were negatively associated with sarcopenia, osteodystrophy, LFI, CTP, and MELD-Na score (P < 0.05 each). Patients with low IGF-1 levels had a higher incidence of complications (overall, ascites and encephalopathy) than those with intermediate, and high IGF-1 levels (P < 0.05 each). Both logIGF-1 (AUC: 0.686) and MELD (AUC: 0.690) could predict 180-day mortality (P < 0.05, each). Adding logIGF-1 with MELDNa further improved discriminative accuracy of MELDNa (AUC: 0.729) P < 0.001. The increase in IGF-1 on follow-up was associated with better survival and fewer complications.

Conclusion

Reduced IGF-1 levels reflect sarcopenia, frailty, and osteodystrophy in cirrhosis. Low IGF-1 are associated with severity, development of decompensations, and mortality.

Hepatic arterial infusion of autologous CD34+ cells for hepatitis C virus-related decompensated cirrhosis: A multicenter, open-label, exploratory randomized controlled trial

Introduction

In this multicenter clinical study, we aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of the transhepatic arterial administration of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF)-mobilized autologous peripheral blood (PB)-CD34+ cells compared with standard therapy in patients with decompensated cirrhosis type C.

Methods

Patients were randomly assigned (2:1) to the CD34+ cell transplant (CD34+ cell) or standard-of-care (SOC) group and followed up for 52 weeks. The primary endpoints were the non-progression rate of Child-Pugh (CP) scores at 24 weeks post-enrollment and the safety of the protocol treatment.

Results

Fourteen patients (CD34+ cell group: 10; SOC group: 4) were enrolled. CP scores at 24 weeks had a non-progression rate of 90% in the CD34+ cell group and 100% in the SOC group, with no significant difference between groups. Importantly, 4 out of 10 patients in the CD34+ cell group exhibited an improvement from decompensated to compensated cirrhosis, whereas all patients in the SOC group remained in decompensated cirrhosis. With regard to secondary endpoints, a trend toward increased serum albumin levels in the CD34+ cell group was noted. Serious adverse events (SAEs) occurred in three patients in the CD34+ cell group and in one patient in the SOC group. No causal relationship was observed between all SAEs and G-CSF, leukapheresis, or cell transplantation in the CD34+ cell group. No patients died and no hepatocellular carcinoma occurred within the study period.

Conclusions

PB-CD34+ cell infusion therapy may have the potential to circumvent the decompensated stage of cirrhosis, thus avoiding the need for liver transplantation.

Research Priorities and Future Landscape of Clinical Trials in Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

Liver is the most common organ affected by alcohol misuse. The spectrum of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) ranges from simple steatosis to cirrhosis and its complications. The unique clinical phenotype of alcohol-associated hepatitis has a risk for high short-term mortality. Several gaps exist with respect to epidemiology, noninvasive testing, prognostication, and treatment of ALD. Most studies focus on short-term survival as the ideal endpoint and ignore other aspects of alcohol-use disorder and ALD. In this review, the authors discuss the existing knowledge gaps, enumerate ongoing clinical trials, and highlight the research priorities and future landscape of clinical trials.

From prognostication to therapeutics: Four key questions to accelerate the development of therapeutics for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has come a long way as a clinical concept within the hepatology and liver transplant communities. Though the term was proposed in 1995, the first recognition of the entity along with a consensus definition emerged in 2009. Subsequently, the entity has sparked great interest, inspired several consensus conferences, and inspired national societies to form professional ACLF affinity groups (eg, special interest group). Multicenter consortia have been established all over the world to study this condition, including the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure consortium, Asian Pacific Association for the Study of Liver Diseases ACLF Research Consortium, Chronic Liver disease Evolution And Registry for Events and Decompensation, and the LiverHope Consortium. Collectively, these consortia have enrolled tens of thousands of patients with or at risk for ACLF across dozens of countries and characterized in detail the predictors, pathogenesis, and progression of patients with ACLF. Perhaps most importantly, they have produced essential data characterizing the excess morbidity and mortality that patients with ACLF face, making a compelling case for the urgent need for therapeutic strategies for this condition.

Designing clinical trials to address alcohol use and alcohol-associated liver disease: an expert panel Consensus Statement

Most patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) engage in heavy drinking defined as 4 or more drinks per day (56 g) or 8 (112 g) or more drinks per week for women and 5 or more drinks per day (70 g) or 15 (210 g) or more drinks per week for men. Although abstinence from alcohol after diagnosis of ALD improves life expectancy and reduces the risk of decompensation of liver disease, few studies have evaluated whether treatment of alcohol use disorders will reduce progression of liver disease and improve liver-related outcomes. In November 2021, the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism commissioned a task force that included hepatologists, addiction medicine specialists, statisticians, clinical trialists and members of regulatory agencies to develop recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials to evaluate the effect of alcohol use, particularly treatment to reduce or eliminate alcohol use in patients with ALD. The task force conducted extensive reviews of relevant literature on alcohol use disorders and ALD. Findings were presented at one in-person meeting and discussed over the next 16 months to develop the final recommendations. As few clinical trials directly address this topic, the 28 recommendations approved by all members of the task force represent a consensus of expert opinions.

The Liver Cirrhosis Network Cohort Study: Cirrhosis Definition, Study Population, and Endpoints

INTRODUCTION

One of the primary goals of the Liver Cirrhosis Network (LCN) is to develop a cohort study to better understand and predict the risk of hepatic decompensation and other clinical and patient-reported outcomes among patients with Child A cirrhosis.

METHODS

The LCN consists of a Scientific Data Coordinating Center and 10 clinical centers whose investigators populate multiple committees. The LCN Definitions and Measurements Committee developed preliminary definitions of cirrhosis and its complications by literature review, expert opinion, and reviewing definition documents developed by other organizations. The Cohort Committee developed the study protocol with the input of the steering committee.

RESULTS

The LCN developed a prospective cohort study to describe and predict the rates of incident clinical events pertaining to first decompensation and patient-reported outcomes. The LCN developed a pragmatic definition of compensated cirrhosis incorporating clinical, laboratory, imaging, and histological criteria. Definitions of incident and recompensated ascites, overt hepatic encephalopathy, variceal hemorrhage, bleeding because of portal gastropathy, and hepatocellular carcinoma were also codified.

DISCUSSION

The LCN Cohort Study design will inform the natural history of cirrhosis in contemporary patients with compensated cirrhosis. The LCN Definitions and Measures Committee developed criteria for the definition of cirrhosis to standardize entry into this multicenter cohort study and standardized criteria for liver-related outcome measures. This effort has produced definitions intended to be both sensitive and specific as well as easily operationalized by study staff such that outcomes critical to the LCN cohort are identified and reported in an accurate and generalizable fashion.

REGISTRATION

NCT05740358.

Exploring the Prevalence, Predictors, and Impact of Bacterial Infections to Guide Empiric Antimicrobial Decisions in Cirrhosis (EPIC-AD)

Background/Aims

This study delved into cirrhosis-related infections to unveil their epidemiology, risk factors, and implications for antimicrobial decisions.

Methods

We analyzed acutely decompensated cirrhosis patients (n = 971) from North India between 2013-2023 at a tertiary center. Microbiological and clinical features based on infection sites (EASL criteria) and patient outcomes were assessed.

Results

Median age was 45 years; 87% were males with 47% having alcoholic hepatitis. Of these, 675 (69.5%) had infections; 305 (45%) were culture-confirmed. Notably, 71% of confirmed cases were multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO)-related, chiefly carbapenem-resistant (48%). MDRO prevalence was highest in pulmonary (80.5%) and skin-soft-tissue infections (76.5%). Site-specific distribution and antimicrobials were suggested. Predictive models identified prior hospitalization [OR:2.23 (CI:1.58-3.14)], norfloxacin prophylaxis [OR:2.26 (CI:1.44-3.55)], prior broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure [OR:1.61 (CI:1.12-2.30)], presence of systemic inflammatory response-SIRS [OR:1.75 (CI: 1.23-2.47)], procalcitonin [OR:4.64 (CI:3.36-6.40)], and HE grade [OR:1.41 (CI:1.04-1.90)], with an area under curve; AUC of 0.891 for infection prediction. For MDRO infection prediction, second infection [OR: 7.19 (CI: 4.11-12.56)], norfloxacin prophylaxis [OR: 2.76 (CI: 1.84-4.13)], CLIF-C OF [OR: 1.10 (CI: 1.01-1.20)], prior broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure [OR: 1.66 (CI: 1.07-2.55)], rifaximin [OR: 040 (0.22-0.74)] multisite [OR: 3.67 (CI: 1.07-12.56)], and polymicrobial infection [OR: 4.55 (CI: 1.45-14.17)] yielded an AUC of 0.779 and 93% specificity. Norfloxacin prophylaxis, multisite infection, mechanical ventilation, prior broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure, and infection as acute precipitant predicted carbapenem-resistant infection (AUC: 0.821). Infections (culture-proven or probable), MDROs, carbapenem/pan-drug resistance, and second infections independently linked with mortality (P < 0.001), adjusted for age, leucocytosis, and organ failures. A model incorporating age [HR:1.02 (CI: 1.01-1.03), infection [HR:1.52 (CI: 1.05-2.20)], prior hospitalization [HR:5.33 (CI: 3.75-7.57)], norfloxacin [HR:1.29 (CI: 1.01-1.65)], multisite infection [HR:1.47 (CI:1.06-2.04)], and chronic liver failure consortium-organ failure score; CLIF-C OF [HR:1.17 (CI: 1.11-1.23)] predicted mortality with C-statistics of 0.782 (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

High MDRO burden, especially carbapenem-resistant, necessitates urgent control measures in cirrhosis. Site-specific epidemiology and risk models can guide empirical antimicrobial choices in cirrhosis management.

Beta-blockers or Placebo for Primary Prophylaxis (BOPPP) of oesophageal varices: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Liver disease is within the top five causes of premature death in adults. Deaths caused by complications of cirrhosis continue to rise, whilst deaths related to other non-liver disease areas are declining. Portal hypertension is the primary sequelae of cirrhosis and is associated with the development of variceal haemorrhage, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and infection, collectively termed hepatic decompensation, which leads to hospitalisation and mortality. It remains uncertain whether administering a non-selective beta-blocker (NSBB), specifically carvedilol, at an earlier stage, i.e. when oesophageal varices are small, can prevent VH and reduce all-cause decompensation (ACD).

METHODS/DESIGN

The BOPPP trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, placebo-controlled, triple-blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Patients aged 18 years or older with cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices that have never bled will be recruited, subject to exclusion criteria. The trial aims to enrol 740 patients across 55 hospitals in the UK. Patients are allocated randomly on a 1:1 ratio to receive either carvedilol 6.25 mg (a NSBB) or a matched placebo, once or twice daily, for 36 months, to attain adequate power to determine the effectiveness of carvedilol in preventing or reducing ACD. The primary outcome is the time to first decompensating event. It is a composite primary outcome made up of variceal haemorrhage (VH, new or worsening ascites, new or worsening hepatic encephalopathy (HE), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), hepatorenal syndrome, an increase in Child-Pugh grade by 1 grade or MELD score by 5 points, and liver-related mortality. Secondary outcomes include progression to medium or large oesophageal varices, development of gastric, duodenal, or ectopic varices, participant quality of life, healthcare costs and transplant-free survival.

DISCUSSION

The BOPPP trial aims to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of carvedilol in patients with cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices to determine whether this non-selective beta-blocker can prevent or reduce hepatic decompensation. There is clinical equipoise on whether intervening in cirrhosis, at an earlier stage of portal hypertension, with NSBB therapy is beneficial. Should the trial yield a positive result, we anticipate that the administration and use of carvedilol will become widespread with pathways developed to standardise the administration of the medication in primary care.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial has been approved by the National Health Service (NHS) Research Ethics Committee (REC) (reference number: 19/YH/0015). The results of the trial will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Participants will be informed of the results via the BOPPP website ( www.boppp-trial.org ) and partners in the British Liver Trust (BLT) organisation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EUDRACT reference number: 2018-002509-78. ISRCTN reference number: ISRCTN10324656. Registered on April 24 2019.

Hyponatremia in the Context of Liver Disease

Hyponatremia is common in patients with liver disease and is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and a reduced quality of life. In liver transplantation, the inclusion of hyponatremia in organ allocation scores has reduced waitlist mortality. Portal hypertension and the resulting lowering of the effective arterial blood volume are important pathogenetic factors, but in most patients with liver disease, hyponatremia is multifactorial. Treatment requires a multifaceted approach that tries to reduce electrolyte-free water intake, restore urinary dilution, and increase nonelectrolyte solute excretion. Albumin therapy for hyponatremia is a peculiarity of advanced liver disease. Its use appears to be increasing, while the vaptans are currently only given in selected cases. Osmotic demyelination is a special concern in patients with liver disease. Serial checks of serum sodium concentrations and urine volume monitoring are mandatory.

Targets and study design for symptom-focused trials aimed at patients with cirrhosis: An expert consensus

BACKGROUND

Symptom-focused trials are critically needed for patients with cirrhosis. However, this work would benefit from standard processes and validated measures.

METHODS

A writing group was formed among hepatologists, nurses, palliative care providers, pharmacists, and clinical trial experts focused on symptom management in patients with cirrhosis to define the key (1) components of trial design, (2) symptom targets, (3) measurement, and (4) outcomes for each target. From July 2022 to January 2023, panelists participated in an iterative process of developing and arriving at a consensus for each component. The goal was to provide consensus definitions that can be operationalized in future clinical trials, including for patients with cirrhosis.

RESULTS

The panel reached a consensus on key reporting features for clinical trials, along with considerations for study design. Nine key symptom targets (muscle cramps, pruritus, pain, fatigue, sexual dysfunction, sleep disorders, depression and anxiety, nausea/vomiting, and dyspnea/breathlessness) were identified. The panel selected instruments that can be considered for clinical trials based on psychometric validation and previous experience. The panel identified ongoing needs, including instrument validation, safety data, evidence about non-pharmacologic interventions, and comparative effectiveness studies.

CONCLUSION

This expert panel identified key design, reporting, and measurement elements to standardize processes and measures in future symptom-focused clinical trials in the context of cirrhosis.

Baseline Severity and Inflammation Would Influence the Effect of Simvastatin on Clinical Outcomes in Cirrhosis Patients

BACKGROUND

Simvastatin administration to decompensated cirrhosis patients improved Child-Pugh (CP) at the end of a safety trial (EST).

AIM

To evaluate whether simvastatin reduces cirrhosis severity through a secondary analysis of the safety trial.

METHODS

Thirty patients CP class (CPc) CPc A (n = 6), CPc B (n = 22), and CPc C (n = 2) received simvastatin for one year.

PRIMARY ENDPOINT

cirrhosis severity. Secondary endpoints: health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and hospitalizations for cirrhosis complications.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis severity decreased baseline versus EST only across CP score (7.3 ± 1.3 versus 6.7 ± 1.7, P = 0.041), and CPc: 12 patients lessened from CPc B to CPc A, and three patients increased from CPc A to CPc B (P = 0.029). Due to cirrhosis severity changes and differences in clinical outcomes, 15 patients completed the trial as CPc A_EST and another 15 as CPc B/C. At baseline, CPc A_EST showed greater albumin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations than CPc B/C (P = 0.036 and P = 0.028, respectively). Comparing EST versus baseline, only in CPc A_EST, there was a reduction in white-cell blood (P = 0.012), neutrophils (P = 0.029), monocytes (P = 0.035), and C-reactive protein (P = 0.046); an increase in albumin (P = 0.011); and a recovery in HRQoL (P < 0.030). Finally, admissions for cirrhosis complications decreased in CPc A_EST versus CPc B/C (P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Simvastatin would reduce cirrhosis severity only in CPc B at baseline in a suitable protein and lipid milieu, possibly due to its anti-inflammatory effects. Furthermore, only in CPc A_EST would improve HRQoL and reduce admissions by cirrhosis complications. However, as these outcomes were not primary endpoints, they require validation.

Liver-HERO: hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI) treatment with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in patients with cirrhosis-a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with cirrhosis and ascites (and portal hypertension) are at risk of developing acute kidney injury (AKI). Although many etiologies exist, hepatorenal AKI (HRS-AKI) remains a frequent and difficult-to-treat cause, with a very high mortality when left untreated. The standard of care is the use of terlipressin and albumin. This can lead to reversal of AKI, which is associated to survival. Nevertheless, only approximately half of the patients achieve this reversal and even after reversal patients remains at risk for new episodes of HRS-AKI. TIPS is accepted for use in patients with variceal bleeding and refractory ascites, which leads to a reduction in portal pressure. Although preliminary data suggest it may be useful in HRS-AKI, its use in this setting is controversial and caution is recommended given the fact that HRS-AKI is associated to cardiac alterations and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) which represent relative contraindications for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). In the last decades, with the new definition of renal failure in patients with cirrhosis, patients are identified at an earlier stage. These patients are less sick and therefore more likely to not have contraindications for TIPS. We hypothesize that TIPS could be superior to the standard of care in patients with HRS-AKI.

METHODS

This study is a prospective, multicenter, open, 1:1-randomized, controlled parallel-group trial. The main end-point is to compare the 12-month liver transplant-free survival in patients assigned to TIPS compared to the standard of care (terlipressin and albumin). Secondary end-point include reversal of HRS-AKI, health-related Quality of Life (HrQoL), and incidence of further decompensation among others. Once patients are diagnosed with HRS-AKI, they will be randomized to TIPS or Standard of Care (SOC). TIPS should be placed within 72 h. Until TIPS placement, TIPS patients will be treated with terlipressin and albumin. Once TIPS is placed, terlipressin and albumin should be weaned off according to the attending physician.

DISCUSSION

If the trial were to show a survival advantage for patients who undergo TIPS placement, this could be incorporated in routine clinical practice in the management of patients with HRS-AKI.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT05346393 . Released to the public on 01 April 2022.

High frequency of acute decompensation and cancer in patients with compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A retrospective cohort study

The natural history of compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been completely characterized. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence and risk factors of acute decompensation of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and extrahepatic cancers. This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study including 449 patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD. We calculated cumulative incidences and used competitive risk analysis to determine the risk factors associated with decompensation and cancer development. Over a median of 39 months of follow-up, 124 patients (28%) presented acute decompensation. The most frequent decompensation was ascites (21%) followed by hepatic encephalopathy (15%), variceal bleeding (9%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (3%). Acute-on-chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 6% of patients during follow-up. Liver function parameters and specifically an albumin level below 40 g/L were independently associated with an increased risk of decompensation. The presence of ischemic heart disease was independently associated with acute decompensation. Seventy-eight patients (18%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma or extrahepatic cancers during follow-up (51 and 27, respectively). Conclusion: Patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD are at high risk of severe liver complications, such as the development of acute decompensation, in a relative short follow-up time. This population is at high risk of hepatic and extrahepatic cancers.

Long-term albumin treatment in patients with cirrhosis and ascites

Although proposed for the first time several decades ago, the possibility that long-term human albumin could be effective for the treatment of patients with cirrhosis and ascites has become a topic of scientific and clinical discussion in the last decade. Long-term albumin administration represents a completely different treatment perspective compared to acute or short-term uses of albumin. Results from the ANSWER and the MACHT studies indicate that long-term albumin treatment can be effective, safe and able to modify the course of the disease provided that albumin is given at a sufficient dose and for a sufficient time to restore physiological levels and functions of the circulating molecule, which are compromised, at least partially, in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Further clinical studies and randomised trials are warranted to confirm the clinical benefits of long-term albumin therapy. Important areas for further research include determining the precise target population, the biomarkers of response, the optimal dose and frequency of albumin infusions, the stopping rules, and the cost-effectiveness of treatment in different healthcare systems across the world, particularly in those where the logistical issues and costs related to the periodic intravenous infusions may represent an important limitation to the implementation of this innovative approach in clinical practice. In this review, we will critically analyse the available data on long-term albumin treatment, focusing on the differences that exist between studies, the controversial issues and the future perspectives.

Leveraging electronic health record data for clinical trial planning by assessing eligibility criteria's impact on patient count and safety

OBJECTIVE

To present an approach on using electronic health record (EHR) data that assesses how different eligibility criteria, either individually or in combination, can impact patient count and safety (exemplified by all-cause hospitalization risk) and further assist with criteria selection for prospective clinical trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Trials in three disease domains - relapsed/refractory (r/r) lymphoma/leukemia; hepatitis C virus (HCV); stages 3 and 4 chronic kidney disease (CKD) - were analyzed as case studies for this approach. For each disease domain, criteria were identified and all criteria combinations were used to create EHR cohorts. Per combination, two values were derived: (1) number of eligible patients meeting the selected criteria; (2) hospitalization risk, measured as the hazard ratio between those that qualified and those that did not. From these values, k-means clustering was applied to derive which criteria combinations maximized patient counts but minimized hospitalization risk.

RESULTS

Criteria combinations that reduced hospitalization risk without substantial reductions on patient counts were as follows: for r/r lymphoma/leukemia (23 trials; 9 criteria; 623 patients), applying no infection and adequate absolute neutrophil count while forgoing no prior malignancy; for HCV (15; 7; 751), applying no human immunodeficiency virus and no hepatocellular carcinoma while forgoing no decompensated liver disease/cirrhosis; for CKD (10; 9; 23893), applying no congestive heart failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Within each disease domain, the more drastic effects were generally driven by a few criteria. Similar criteria across different disease domains introduce different changes. Although results are contingent on the trial sample and the EHR data used, this approach demonstrates how EHR data can inform the impact on safety and available patients when exploring different criteria combinations for designing clinical trials.

Liver cirrhosis

Cirrhosis is widely prevalent worldwide and can be a consequence of different causes, such as obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, high alcohol consumption, hepatitis B or C infection, autoimmune diseases, cholestatic diseases, and iron or copper overload. Cirrhosis develops after a long period of inflammation that results in replacement of the healthy liver parenchyma with fibrotic tissue and regenerative nodules, leading to portal hypertension. The disease evolves from an asymptomatic phase (compensated cirrhosis) to a symptomatic phase (decompensated cirrhosis), the complications of which often result in hospitalisation, impaired quality of life, and high mortality. Progressive portal hypertension, systemic inflammation, and liver failure drive disease outcomes. The management of liver cirrhosis is centred on the treatment of the causes and complications, and liver transplantation can be required in some cases. In this Seminar, we discuss the disease burden, pathophysiology, and recommendations for the diagnosis and management of cirrhosis and its complications. Future challenges include better screening for early fibrosis or cirrhosis, early identification and reversal of causative factors, and prevention of complications.

Prevention of Cirrhosis Complications: Looking for Potential Disease Modifying Agents

The current therapeutic strategies for the management of patients with cirrhosis rely on the prevention or treatment of specific complications. The removal of the causative agents (i.e., viruses or alcohol) prevents decompensation in the vast majority of patients with compensated cirrhosis. In contrast, even when etiological treatment has been effective, a significant proportion of patients with decompensated cirrhosis remains at risk of further disease progression. Therefore, therapies targeting specific key points in the complex pathophysiological cascade of decompensated cirrhosis could represent a new approach for the management of these severely ill patients. Some of the interventions currently employed for treating or preventing specific complications of cirrhosis or used in other diseases (i.e., poorly absorbable oral antibiotics, statins, albumin) have been proposed as potential disease-modifying agents in cirrhosis (DMAC) since clinical studies have shown their capacity of improving survival. Additional multicenter, large randomized clinical trials are awaited to confirm these promising results. Finally, new drugs able to antagonize key pathophysiological mechanisms are under pre-clinical development or at the initial stages of clinical assessment.

Outcomes and potential surrogate markers for future clinical trials of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has emerged as a major public health problem, and the burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis is projected to increase by 64%-156% by 2030. The threat is aggravated by the fact that are currently no approved drugs for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. In this paper, we review the main challenges to drug development in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis, and describe the opportunities brought by the advances in the understanding of the clinical and pathophysiological nuances of cirrhosis. The design of therapeutic regimens for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis will vary according to the specific cirrhosis substage (compensated vs decompensated), and the specific mechanistic basis of therapy, targeted either at improving aetiology-specific pathways and/or at more general aetiology-agnostic processes. The understanding of the probabilistic expectations for the whole range of potential outcomes, rooted at different mechanistic drivers at each specific substage, will be essential in order to choose adequate estimands and therapeutic strategies for clinical trials and individual patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis. Finally, we provide a summary of the main pitfalls and uncertainties in the design of clinical trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis and discuss potential biomarkers for use in trials and practice for these patients.

The search for disease-modifying agents in decompensated cirrhosis: From drug repurposing to drug discovery

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are currently managed through targeted strategies aimed at preventing or treating specific complications. In contrast, a disease-modifying agent should, by definition, be aimed at globally addressing 'decompensated cirrhosis'. To be defined as a disease-modifying agent in decompensated cirrhosis, interventions need to demonstrate an unequivocal benefit on the course of disease in well-designed and adequately powered randomised clinical trials with hard endpoints (i.e. patient survival). These trials also need to define the target population, dosage and timing of administration, factors guiding treatment, temporary or permanent stopping rules, transferability to daily clinical practice, cost-effectiveness, and global treatment access. By eliminating the underlying cause of cirrhosis, aetiologic treatments can still influence the course of decompensated disease by halting or slowing down disease progression or even inducing reversion to the compensated state. In contrast, there remains an unmet clinical need for disease-modifying agents which can antagonise key pathophysiological mechanisms of decompensated cirrhosis, such as portal hypertension, gut translocation, circulatory dysfunction, systemic inflammation, and immunological dysfunction. However, in the last few years, the repurposing of "old drugs" that have already been prescribed for more limited indications in hepatology or for other diseases has provided a few candidates, including human albumin, statins, and poorly absorbable oral antibiotics, which are under further evaluation in large-scale randomised clinical trials. New disease-modifying agents are also expected to be identified in the next decade through the systematic repurposing of existing drugs and the development of novel molecules which are currently undergoing pre-clinical or early clinical testing.

Patterns of acute decompensation in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and course of acute-on-chronic liver failure

INTRODUCTION

Recently, based on data from the PREDICT study, the European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF-CLIF) consortium proposed pathophysiological/prognostic groups in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis: stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), pre-acute-on-chronic liver failure (pre-ACLF), and ACLF. We evaluated the outcomes of these subgroups in a real-life cohort of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis developing first AD between 09/2010 and 12/2017 at the Vienna General Hospital were evaluated for this retrospective analysis.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ten patients with cirrhosis (aged 57.6 ± 11.8 years) including n = 45 (21.4%) SDC, n = 100 (47.6%) UDC, n = 28 (13.3%) pre-ACLF, and n = 37 (17.6%) with ACLF were considered. The proposed AD subgroups discriminated between patients with favorable (1-year mortality: SDC: 6.7% and UDC: 19.6%) and dismal prognosis (90-day mortality: pre-ACLF: 42.9%). Interestingly, systemic inflammation gradually increased (e.g., C-reactive protein, SDC: 0.9 mg/dl, vs. UDC: 2.0 mg/dl vs. pre-ACLF: 3.2 mg/dl, p < 0.001) while renal function was progressively deteriorating (creatinine levels, SDC: 0.8 mg/dl vs. UDC: 0.9 mg/dl vs. pre-ACLF: 1.2 mg/dl, p < 0.001) across prognostic subgroups in patients with cirrhosis.

DISCUSSION

The recently proposed pathophysiological/prognostic EF-CLIF subgroups are also reproduceable in a real-life cohort of cirrhotic patients. As ACLF is a common and important complication, patients at risk of pre-ACLF at index AD should be evaluated and if disease proceeds, been treated early and aggressively to avoid excessive mortality.