HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

EASL position paper on clinical follow-up after HCV cure

Following the advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can be cured in almost all infected patients. This has led to a number of clinical questions regarding the optimal management of the millions of patients cured of HCV. This position statement provides specific guidance on the appropriate follow-up after a sustained virological response in patients without advanced fibrosis, those with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, and those with decompensated cirrhosis. Guidance on hepatocellular carcinoma risk assessment and the management of extrahepatic manifestations of HCV is also provided. Finally, guidance is provided on the monitoring and treatment of reinfection in at-risk patients. The recommendations are based on the best available evidence and are intended to help healthcare professionals involved in the management of patients after treatment for HCV.

Effect of direct-acting antivirals on disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in South Korea in 2007-2021: a nationwide, multicentre, retrospective cohort study

Background

It is unclear whether direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) treatment improves the disease burden in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study aimed to investigate the effect of DAA treatment on the reduction of disease burden in patients with HCV infection using individual participant data.

Methods

This nationwide multicentre retrospective cohort study recruited patients with HCV infection from 29 tertiary institutions in South Korea. The data collection was done from medical records in each institution. The study included the untreated patients and the DAAs-treated patients and excluded those with a history of interferon-based treatments. Disease burden was the primary outcome, as represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Improvement in fibrosis after DAA treatment was assessed using APRI, FIB-4 index, and liver stiffness (LS) as assessed by transient elastography. Clinical outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), decompensation, and mortality.

Findings

Between January 1, 2007, and February 17, 2022, data from 11,725 patients with HCV infection, 8464 (72%) of whom were treated with DAAs, were analysed. DAA treatment significantly improved APRI- (median 0.64 [interquartile range (IQR), 0.35-1.31]-0.33 [0.23-0.52], p < 0.0001), FIB-4- (median 2.42 [IQR, 1.48-4.40]-1.93 [1.31-2.97], p < 0.0001), and liver LS-based fibrosis (median 7.4 [IQR, 5.3-12.3]-6.2 [4.6-10.2] kPa, p < 0.0001). During the median follow-up period of 27.5 months (IQR, 10.6-52.4), 469 patients died (4.0%), 586 (5.0%) developed HCC, and 580 (4.9%) developed decompensation. The APRI-based DALY estimate was significantly lower in the DAA group than in the untreated group (median 4.55 vs. 5.14 years, p < 0.0001), as was the FIB-4-based DALY estimate (median 5.43 [IQR, 3.00-6.44] vs. 5.79 [3.85-8.07] years, p < 0.0001). The differences between the untreated and DAA groups were greatest in patients aged 40-60 years. In multivariable analyses, the DAA group had a significantly reduced risk of HCC, decompensation, and mortality compared with the untreated group (hazard ratios: 0.41 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.34-0.48], 0.31 [95% CI, 0.30-0.38], and 0.22 [95% CI, 0.17-0.27], respectively; p < 0.0001).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that DAA treatment is associated with the improvement of liver-related outcomes and a reduction of liver fibrosis-based disease burden in patients with HCV infection. However, further studies using liver biopsy are needed to clarify the effect of DAA treatment on the reduction in the exact fibrosis-based disease burden beyond noninvasive tests.

Funding

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.

Unmet needs in the post-direct-acting antivirals era: The risk and molecular mechanisms of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major etiologies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with approximately 30% of HCC being due to HCV infection worldwide. HCV eradication by antivirals greatly reduces the risk of HCC; nevertheless, HCC remains to occur in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who have achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). The proportion of post-SVR HCC among newly diagnosed HCC patients is increasing in the direct-acting antiviral (DAA) era and might be due to preexisting inflammatory and fibrotic liver backgrounds, immune dysregulation between host and virus interactions, as well as host epigenetic scars, genetic predispositions and alternations. By means of applying surrogate markers and adopting risk stratification, HCC surveillance should be consistently performed in high-risk populations. In this review, we discuss the possible molecular mechanism, risk factors, and HCC surveillance strategy for HCC development after HCV eradication in CHC patients.

Hepatitis C virus-induced differential transcriptional traits in host cells after persistent infection elimination by direct-acting antivirals in cell culture

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) causes liver inflammation and fibrosis, leading to the development of severe liver disease, such as cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Approval of direct-acting antiviral drug combinations has revolutionized chronic HCV therapy, with virus eradication in >98% of the treated patients. The efficacy of these treatments is such that it is formally possible for cured patients to carry formerly infected cells that display irreversible transcriptional alterations directly caused by chronic HCV Infection. Combining differential transcriptomes from two different persistent infection models, we observed a major reversion of infection-related transcripts after complete infection elimination. However, a small number of transcripts were abnormally expressed in formerly infected cells. Comparison of the results obtained in proliferating and growth-arrested cell culture models suggest that permanent transcriptional alterations may be established by several mechanisms. Interestingly, some of these alterations were also observed in the liver biopsies of virologically cured patients. Overall, our data suggest a direct and permanent impact of persistent HCV infection on the host cell transcriptome even after virus elimination, possibly contributing to the development of HCC.

Post-treatment LSM rather than change during treatment predicts decompensation in patients with cACLD after HCV cure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Baveno VII has defined a clinically significant (i.e., prognostically meaningful) decrease in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in cACLD as a decrease of ≥20% associated with a final LSM <20 kPa or any decrease to <10 kPa. However, these rules have not yet been validated against direct clinical endpoints.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed patients with cACLD (LSM ≥10 kPa) with paired liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before (BL) and after (FU) HCV cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centres. The cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation was compared according to these criteria, considering hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing risks.

RESULTS

A total of 2,335 patients followed for a median of 6 years were analysed. Median BL-LSM was 16.6 kPa with 37.1% having ≥20 kPa. After HCV cure, FU-LSM decreased to a median of 10.9 kPa (<10 kPa: 1,002 [42.9%], ≥20 kPa: 465 [19.9%]) translating into a median LSM change of -5.3 (-8.8 to -2.4) kPa corresponding to -33.9 (-48.0 to -15.9) %. Patients achieving a clinically significant decrease (65.4%) had a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35, p <0.001). However, these risk differences were primarily driven by a negligible risk in patients with FU-LSM <10 kPa (5-year cumulative incidence: 0.3%) compared to a high risk in patients with FU-LSM ≥20 kPa (16.6%). Patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa (37.4%) also had a low risk of hepatic decompensation (5-year cumulative incidence: 1.7%), and importantly, the risk of hepatic decompensation did not differ between those with/without an LSM decrease of ≥20% (p = 0.550).

CONCLUSIONS

FU-LSM is key for risk stratification after HCV cure and should guide clinical decision making. LSM dynamics do not hold significant prognostic information in patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa, and thus, their consideration is not of sufficient incremental value in the specific context of HCV cure.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is increasingly applied as a prognostic biomarker and commonly decreases in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure. Although Baveno VII proposed criteria for a clinically significant decrease, little is known about the prognostic utility of LSM dynamics (changes through antiviral therapy). Interestingly, in those with a post-treatment LSM of 10-19.9 kPa, LSM dynamics did not provide incremental information, arguing against the consideration of LSM dynamics as prognostic criteria. Thus, post-treatment LSM should guide the management of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure.

Screening and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with advanced fibrosis after hepatitis C virus eradication

INTRODUCTION

the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after eradication of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is highly variable in patients with advanced fibrosis (F3). Long-term surveillance for HCC after sustained virological response (SVR) is controversial in these patients. The objective of this study was to describe the post-SVR follow-up in clinical practice in patients with F3 and determine the predictive factors for the development of HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

a multicenter, observational and retrospective study was performed, which included HCV-monoinfected patients with F3 fibrosis determined by transient elastography who achieved SVR between 2015 and 2022, with follow-up until May 2023. Clinical-demographic, laboratory, elastography, and ultrasound variables were recorded before and after treatment. A descriptive and inferential analysis, Cox regression analysis and survival analysis were carried out with the R statistical software.

RESULTS

two hundred and nineteen patients were included in the study (65.3 % males, median age 57 years), and 175 (79.9 %) received ultrasound screening after SVR for 62 (6-90) months. The prescribing service was the only independent variable related to performing ultrasound surveillance (p = 0.004). Eight patients developed HCC. In multivariate analysis adjusted for sex, age, presence of diabetes and alcohol consumption, a post-SVR FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 was associated with a 12-fold increase in HCC risk. The cumulative probability of HCC was higher in the group of patients with FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 after SVR (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

post-SVR follow-up of patients with F3 fibrosis is variable in clinical practice. Using the FIB-4 after SVR allows us to identify those patients with a higher risk of HCC who benefit from biannual ultrasound screening.

Lysyl oxidase-like 2 as a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus after sustained virological response

Lysyl oxidase-like 2 (LOXL2) mediates the crosslinking of extracellular collagen, reflecting qualitative changes in liver fibrosis. This study aimed to validate the utility of serum LOXL2 levels as a predictive biomarker for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). This retrospective study included 137 patients with chronic HCV infection without history of HCC development and who achieved SVR via direct-acting antiviral therapy. Median LOXL2 levels decreased significantly after SVR achievement (pre-Tx, 2.33 ng/mL; post-Tx, 1.31 ng/mL, p < 0.001). Post-Tx LOXL2 levels, fibrosis-4 index, platelet counts, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein levels, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were identified as independent predictive factors for post-SVR HCC development in the univariate analysis. The incidence of post-SVR HCC development was significantly higher in patients with post-Tx LOXL2 levels ≥ 2.08 ng/mL and AFP levels ≥ 5.0 ng/mL than in patients with elevated levels of either marker or with lower marker levels. Serum LOXL2 levels can serve as a predictive biomarker for HCC development after achieving SVR. The combination of serum LOXL2 and AFP levels provides robust risk stratification for HCC development after SVR, suggesting an enhanced surveillance strategy.

Evaluation of the clinical and economic value of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Spain during the last 5 years

OBJECTIVE

Direct-acting antivirals for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) represented a paradigm shift. In 2017, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL-Epclusa®) was approved, which showed a high cure rate in all patient, contributing to HCV elimination. The analysis aimed to quantify the clinical and economic value of SOF/VEL in HCV chronic patients since its approval in Spain.

METHODS

An economic evaluation was elaborated adapting a Markov model that simulated the lifetime disease progression in of all HCV chronic patients treated with SOF/VEL (30,488 patients) since its launch (5-years), compared to previous therapies. Patients entered the model and were distributed between the fibrosis states (F0-to-F4) in treated and untreated. All patients (100%) were treated with SOF/VEL regardless of their fibrosis, and 49% with previous therapies in ≥F2. The average sustained viral response (SVR) rates 98.9% SOF/VEL versus 61.0% previous therapies. All parameters for the analysis were obtained from real-life data and literature. Only direct healthcare costs associated with disease management were included. The SOF/VEL value was measured as the number of hepatic complications avoided and their associated cost, and hepatic mortality compared to previous therapies. National Health System perspective and a 3% discount rate was applied.

RESULTS

SOF/VEL decreased the number of liver complications, avoiding 92% decompensated cirrhosis, 80% hepatocellular carcinomas, and 87% liver transplants, as well as 85% liver-related mortality. Their cost associated was reduced, amounting to savings of 197M€.

CONCLUSION

SOF/VEL adds relevant value to the HCV treatment, reducing the clinical and economic disease burden and contributing to HCV elimination in Spain.

ELIMINATE: a PCR record-based macroelimination project for systematic recall of HCV-RNA-positive persons in Austria

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Micro-elimination projects targeted to specific hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk populations have been successful. Systematic identification of persons with HCV viremia, regardless of risk group, based on already available laboratory records may represent an effective macroelimination approach to achieve global HCV elimination.

METHODS

Persons with a last positive HCV-RNA PCR result between 2008-2020 in the reference virology laboratories in eastern Austria were identified. First, (i) we described their demographic characteristics, (ii) we systematically recalled persons to the respective centers and (iii) started antiviral treatment if HCV-RNA viremia was confirmed, and (iv) recorded sustained virologic response (SVR). This interim report includes the preliminary results from 8 participating centers.

RESULTS

During the study period 22,682 persons underwent HCV-RNA PCR testing, 11,216 (49.4%) were positive at any point in time, and 6006 (26.5%) showed detectable HCV-RNA at the last PCR test, suggesting ongoing HCV viremia. At the time of this interim report, 2546/6006 HCV-RNA PCR(+) persons were evaluated: 443/2546 (17.4%) had died, 852/2546 (33.5%) had invalid contact data, and 547/2546 (21.5%) had achieved SVR between data retrieval and recall. Contact could be established in 236/704 (33.5%) of the remaining target population with 97/236 (41.1%) presenting at the clinic for treatment evaluation. Ultimately, 71/236 (30.1%) started antiviral treatment and SVR was documented in 47/71 (66.2%).

CONCLUSION

This ELIMINATE project based on systematic assessment of HCV-RNA PCR-records, identified 6006 persons with potential persisting HCV viremia. Invalid contact data and missed visits for treatment evaluation were the main barriers towards HCV elimination within this project. Importantly, many subjects with HCV viremia lost to follow-up were successfully linked to care and started antiviral treatment.

Review article: New developments in biomarkers and clinical drug development in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency-related liver disease

BACKGROUND

Alpha-1 antitrypsin liver disease (AATLD) occurs in a subset of patients with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Risk factors for disease progression and specific pathophysiologic features are not well known and validated non-invasive assessments for disease severity are lacking. Currently, there are no approved treatments for AATLD.

AIMS

To outline existing understanding of AATLD and to identify knowledge gaps critical to improving clinical trial design and development of new treatments.

METHODS

This report was developed following a multi-stakeholder forum organised by the Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency Related Liver Disease Expert Panel in which experts presented an overview of the available literature on this topic.

RESULTS

AATLD results from a 'gain of toxic function' and primarily manifests in those with the homozygous Pi*ZZ genotype. Accumulation of misfolded 'Z' AAT protein in liver cells triggers intracellular hepatocyte injury which may ultimately lead to hepatic fibrosis. Male gender, age over 50 years, persistently elevated liver tests, concomitant hepatitis B or C virus infection, and metabolic syndrome, including obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus, are known risk factors for adult AATLD. While the gold standard for assessing AATLD disease activity is liver histology, less invasive measures with low intra- and inter-observer variability are needed. Measurement of liver stiffness shows promise; validated thresholds for staging AATLD are in development. Such advances will help patients by enabling risk stratification and personalised surveillance, along with streamlining the development process for novel therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

This inaugural forum generated a list of recommendations to address unmet needs in the field of AATLD.

Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with cACLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, patients with cACLD and serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM in predicting LRE using Cox regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of latest liver stiffness measurement. In all, 480 patients with cACLD with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (IQR: 45 -92) months, 32% experienced a LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved cACLD were more likely to be nondiabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, neither the prior LSM nor the LSM slope added predictive value to latest liver stiffness measurement.

CONCLUSIONS

Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in patients with cACLD.

Liver Stiffness Measurement and Risk Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After HCV Eradication in Veterans With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis secondary to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) are at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) despite a sustained virological response (SVR). We examined whether post-SVR liver stiffness measurement (LSM) could be used to stratify HCC risk.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 1850 participants identified from the Veterans Health Administration, with HCV cirrhosis and SVR, followed up over 5099 person-years, from the time of post-SVR elastography until death, HCC, or the end of the study.

RESULTS

The risk of HCC increased by 3% with every 1-kPa increase in LSM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.04; P < .001) and decreased with the number of years from SVR (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.90; P = .0003). The adjusted annual risk of HCC was 2.03% among participants with post-SVR LSM <10 kPa, 2.48% in LSM 10-14.9 kPa (aHR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.01-2.88; P = .046), 3.22% for LSM 15-19.9 kPa (aHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.78-3.20; P = .20), 5.07% among LSM 20-24.9 kPa (aHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.30-5.01; P = .01), and 5.44% in LSM ≥25 kPa (aHR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.74-5.26; P < .0001). The adjusted annual risk of HCC was < 0.4% in participants with LSM <5 kPa and without diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS

LSM predicts rates of HCC in patients with HCV cirrhosis after SVR at multiple cutoff levels and offers a single test to predict portal hypertension-related complications and HCC. Patients with LSM <5 kPa in the absence of diabetes mellitus had a low risk of HCC in which surveillance could be discontinued.

Liver stiffness and associated risk factors among people with a history of injecting drugs: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Persons with opioid use disorders (OUD) and persons with substance use disorders (SUD) who inject substances have a reduced life expectancy of up to 25 years compared with the general population. Chronic liver diseases are a substantial cause of this. Screening strategies based on liver stiffness measurements (LSM) may facilitate early detection, timely intervention, and treatment of liver disease. This study aims to investigate the extent of chronic liver disease measured with transient elastography and the association between LSM and various risk factors, including substance use patterns, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, alcohol use, body mass index, age, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol among people with OUD or with SUD who inject substances.

METHODS

Data was collected from May 2017 to March 2022 in a cohort of 676 persons from Western Norway. The cohort was recruited from two populations: Persons receiving opioid agonist therapy (OAT) (81% of the sample) or persons with SUD injecting substances but not receiving OAT. All participants were assessed at least once with transient elastography. A linear mixed model was performed to assess the impact of risk factors such as HCV infection, alcohol use, lifestyle-associated factors, and substance use on liver stiffness at baseline and over time. Baseline was defined as the time of the first liver stiffness measurement. The results are presented as coefficients (in kilopascal (kPa)) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

At baseline, 12% (n = 83) of the study sample had LSM suggestive of advanced chronic liver disease (LSM ≥ 10 kPa). Advanced age (1.0 kPa per 10 years increments, 95% CI: 0.68;1.3), at least weekly alcohol use (1.3, 0.47;2.1), HCV infection (1.2, 0.55;1.9), low HDL cholesterol level (1.4, 0.64;2.2), and higher body mass index (0.25 per increasing unit, 0.17;0.32) were all significantly associated with higher LSM at baseline. Compared with persistent chronic HCV infection, a resolved HCV infection predicted a yearly reduction of LSM (-0.73, -1.3;-0.21) from baseline to the following liver stiffness measurement.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one-tenth of the participants in this study had LSM suggestive of advanced chronic liver disease. It underscores the need for addressing HCV infection and reducing lifestyle-related liver risk factors, such as metabolic health factors and alcohol consumption, to prevent the advancement of liver fibrosis or cirrhosis in this particular population.

Clinical outcomes and prognostic factors after HCV clearance with DAA in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed long-term clinical outcomes and prognostic factors for liver disease progression after sustained viral response with direct-acting antivirals in patients coinfected with HIV/HCV with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A total of 1300 patients who achieved sustained viral response with direct-acting antivirals from 2014 to 2017 in Spain were included: 1145 with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (384 advanced fibrosis and 761 compensated cirrhosis) and 155 with decompensated cirrhosis. The median follow-up was 40.9 months. Overall, 85 deaths occurred, 61 due to non-liver non-AIDS-related causes that were the leading cause of death across all stages of liver disease. The incidence (95% CI) of decompensation per 100 person-years (py) was 0 in patients with advanced fibrosis, 1.01 (0.68-1.51) in patients with compensated cirrhosis, and 8.35 (6.05-11.53) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The incidence (95% CI) of HCC per 100 py was 0.34 (0.13-0.91) in patients with advanced fibrosis, 0.73 (0.45-1.18) in patients with compensated cirrhosis, and 1.92 (1.00-3.70) per 100 py in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Prognostic factors for decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease included serum albumin, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and fibrosis 4. In this population, LSM and LSM-based posttreatment risk stratification models showed their predictive ability for decompensation and HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-liver non-AIDS-related events were the leading causes of morbidity and mortality after direct-acting antiviral cure among coinfected patients with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. Among those with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline LSM and posttreatment LSM-based models helped to assess decompensation and HCC risk.

Editorial: How does the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma change over time in patients with a hepatitis C cure?

This article is linked to Vutien et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17802 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17841

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk decreases as time accrues following hepatitis C virus eradication

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) decreases over time following hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication.

AIM

To determine if patients who have accrued longer time since sustained virologic response (SVR) have a lower risk of HCC than those with less time since SVR METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all HCV-infected Veterans Affairs patients who achieved SVR before 1 January 2018 and remained alive without a diagnosis of HCC as of 1 January 2019 (n = 75,965). We ascertained their baseline characteristics as of 1 January 2019 (time zero), including time accrued since SVR and followed them for the subsequent 12 months for incident HCC. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the association between time since SVR and HCC risk after adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, sex, diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, alcohol use, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Fibrosis-4 score, HCV genotype, hepatitis B virus co-infection and HIV co-infection.

RESULTS

96.0% were male; mean age was 64.6  years. Among those with cirrhosis (n = 19,678, 25.9%), compared to patients who had accrued only ≥1 to 2 years since SVR (HCC incidence 2.71/100 person-years), those who had accrued >2 to 4 years (2.11/100 person-years, aHR 0.80, 95% CI 0.63-1.01) and >4 to 6 years (1.65/100 person-years, aHR 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.90) had progressively lower HCC risk. However, HCC risk appeared to plateau for those with >6 years since SVR (1.68/100 person-years, aHR 0.70, 95% CI 0.46-1.07). Among those without cirrhosis, HCC risk was 0.23-0.27/100 person-years without a significant association between time since SVR and HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection, HCC risk declined progressively up to 6 years post-SVR-although it remained well above thresholds that warrant screening. This suggests that time since SVR can inform HCC surveillance strategies in patients with cured HCV infection and can be incorporated into HCC risk prediction models.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after viral clearance achieved by DAA treatment

The advent of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy has revolutionized hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment, enabling most HCV-infected patients to achieve a sustained viral response (SVR) easily and safely in a short period. On the other hand, it is gradually being recognized that a significant proportion of patients are still at risk of developing de novo and recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after HCV elimination, and therefore, elucidation of the risk of de novo and recurrent HCC, investigation of its molecular basis, and construction of accurate prediction models are emerging as new important clinical topics. In this review, we present recent advances regarding these issues.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background/Aims

With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR.

Results

The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC.

Conclusions

aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Metformin and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Reduction in Diabetic Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C: Fact or Fiction?

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and concomitant type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) show a higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Successful antiviral therapy has reduced the incidence of post-therapy HCC, but the presence of DM still represents an unfavourable predictive factor even in cured patients. Metformin (MET) is recommended as a first-line therapy for DM, and its use is associated with a significant reduction in HCC among diabetic patients with chronic liver disease of different etiology, but very few studies specifically address this issue in patients with CHC.

AIM

the aim of this review is to evaluate whether the use of MET induces a significant decrease in HCC in diabetic patients with CHC, treated or untreated with antiviral therapy.

METHODS

A search of PubMed, Medline, Web of Sciences and Embase was conducted for publications evaluating the role of MET in reducing the risk of HCC in patients with DM and CHC, with no language and study type restrictions up to 30 June 2023. Only studies fulfilling the following inclusion criteria were considered: (1) data on the incidence of HCC in the follow-up of diabetic patients with CHC only; (2) follow-up ≥24 months; (3) sufficient data to establish the rate of diabetic patients with CHC treated with metformin or other antidiabetic medications; and (4) data on the type of antiviral treatment and the clinical outcome.

RESULTS

Three studies met the inclusion criteria. A prospective cohort study considering only patients with DM and untreated advanced CHC, or non-responders to interferon (IFN) therapy, showed that the use of MET was associated with a significant decrease in HCC incidence, liver-related death and liver transplants. A recent retrospective study focusing on a large-scale nationwide cohort of patients with CHC in Taiwan successfully treated with IFN-based therapy stratified patients into 3 groups: non-MET users, MET users and non-diabetic patients, with 5-year cumulative rates of HCC of 10.9%, 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively, showing a significantly higher HCC risk in non-MET users compared with MET users and with non-diabetic patients, while it was not significantly different between MET users and non-diabetic patients. In a recent Italian cohort study focusing on 7007 patients with CHC treated and cured with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), a combined effect of DM and MET therapy was found, showing a higher incidence of HCC in diabetic patients not taking MET compared with those without DM and those with DM taking MET.

CONCLUSION

according to the current evidence, the use of MET should be encouraged in diabetic patients with CHC in order to reduce the risk of HCC; however, a well-designed randomized controlled trial is needed to establish the generalizability of the beneficial effects of MET in this particular subset of patients.

Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in advanced hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Life-long hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended after sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with advanced hepatitis C. Since the identification of patients who could be safely discontinued for surveillance is essential, we aimed to identify subsets of patients with low-risk HCC.

METHODS

491 patients with advanced and compensated fibrosis (≥F3) were prospectively followed after achieving SVR with interferon-free therapies. Clinical-biological parameters and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were performed before starting treatment (ST) and at SVR, and HCC surveillance was carried out.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 49.8 months, 29 (5.9%) patients developed HCC [incidence rate: 1.6/100 patient-years (PYs)]. Two predictive models based on LSM (Model-A) or FIB-4 score (Model-B) were proposed. Only SVR parameters were included in the models, because they showed a higher accuracy for predicting HCC than ST measurements. Variables independently associated with HCC were LSM (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), age (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08) and albumin levels (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) in Model-A, and FIB-4 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37) and albumin (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) in model-B. Both models allow HCC risk stratification, identifying low-risk groups with an HCC incidence rate of 0.16/100 and 0.25/100 PYs, respectively. An overall increased hazard of HCC was observed over time.

CONCLUSION

Simple models based on non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis, LSM or FIB-4, together with age and albumin levels at SVR permit to identify subsets of patients with HCC risk clearly <1%/year, for whom HCC surveillance might not be cost-effective.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in Australia: current and future perspectives

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and is increasing in incidence in Australia. For most people with cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis B, HCC screening and surveillance is recommended with 6-monthly ultrasound. However, most patients with HCC are still diagnosed outside of surveillance with incurable disease. While HCC surveillance almost certainly reduces cancer-related mortality, the potential harms of surveillance are incompletely understood. Surveillance uptake remains suboptimal in many contexts, and stems from a combination of patient, clinician and system level barriers. Improved case-finding strategies may be required to identify high risk individuals in need of surveillance, as cirrhosis and viral hepatitis are often asymptomatic. HCC prediction models and novel surveillance tools such as biomarker panels, computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging may have a future role in personalised HCC surveillance. Analyses suggest surveillance may be cost-effective, but Australian data remain limited. A centralised HCC surveillance program may ultimately have a role in delivering improved and more equitable care.

Statistical perspectives on using hepatocellular carcinoma risk models to inform surveillance decisions

More than 50,000 people are diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) every year in Europe. Many cases are known to specialist liver centres years before they present with HCC. Despite this, HCC is usually detected at a late stage, when prognosis is very poor. For more than two decades, clinical guidelines have recommended uniform surveillance for all patients with cirrhosis. However, studies continue to show that this broad-based approach is inefficient and poorly implemented in practice. A "personalised" approach, where the surveillance regimen is customised to the needs of the patient, is gaining growing support in the clinical community. The cornerstone of personalised surveillance is the HCC risk model - a mathematical equation predicting a patient's individualised probability of developing HCC within a specific time window. However, although numerous risk models have now been published, few are being used in routine care to inform HCC surveillance decisions. In this article, we discuss methodological issues stymieing the use of HCC risk models in routine practice - highlighting biases, evidence gaps and misconceptions that future research must address.

Etiological cure prevents further decompensation and mortality in patients with cirrhosis with ascites as the single first decompensating event

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Removal/suppression of the primary etiological factor reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in compensated cirrhosis. However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the impact of etiologic treatment is less predictable. We aimed to evaluate the impact of etiological treatment in patients with cirrhosis who developed ascites as single index decompensating event.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensation event were included and followed until death, liver transplantation, or Q3/2021. The etiology was considered "cured" (alcohol abstinence, hepatitis C cure, and hepatitis B suppression) versus "controlled" (partial removal of etiologic factors) versus "uncontrolled." A total of 622 patients were included in the study. Etiology was "cured" in 146 patients (24%), "controlled" in 170 (27%), and "uncontrolled" in 306 (49%). During follow-up, 350 patients (56%) developed further decompensation. In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, sex, varices, etiology, Child-Pugh class, creatinine, sodium, and era of decompensation), etiological cure was independently associated with a lower risk of further decompensation (HR: 0.46; p = 0.001). During follow-up, 250 patients (40.2%) died, while 104 (16.7%) underwent LT. In multivariable analysis, etiological cure was independently associated with a lower mortality risk (HR: 0.35, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensating event, the cure of liver disease etiology represents a main treatment goal since this translates into considerably lower risks of further decompensation and mortality.

Hepatic recompensation according to Baveno VII criteria is linked to a significant survival benefit in decompensated alcohol-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Removing the primary aetiological factor in decompensated cirrhosis may lead to a restoration of hepatic function. In this study, we investigated the clinical implications of recompensation and the subsequent survival in patients with decompensated alcohol-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

The rate of recompensation was evaluated in patients with decompensated alcohol-related cirrhosis and persistent alcohol abstinence undergoing a hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. Recompensation was defined according to Baveno VII criteria as resolution of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, absence of variceal bleeding and improvement in liver function.

RESULTS

Two hundred and four abstinent patients with decompensated alcohol-related cirrhosis (age: 57.2 [IQR:50.1-63.7] years; 75.0% male; median MELD: 15 [IQR:11-19]) and a median HVPG of 20 (IQR:18-24) mmHg were included. During a median follow-up of 24.4 (IQR:10.9-50.4) months, 37 patients (18.1%) achieved abstinence-induced recompensation. Lower baseline HVPG, lower Child-Pugh score, lower BMI, higher albumin and higher mean arterial pressure were linked to a higher probability of recompensation. After adjusting for age, disease severity, portal hypertension and systemic inflammation, achieving recompensation resulted in a significant and considerable reduction in liver-related mortality (adjusted HR: 0.091 [95% CI: 0.012-0.677]; p = .019). Only 13 patients (6.4%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma, with a tendency towards a lower risk upon recompensation (HR: 0.398 [95% CI: 0.084-1.878]; p = .245), yet this finding did not reach statistical significance and requires further investigation.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol abstinence led to recompensation in 18.1% of our cohort of HVPG-characterised patients with decompensated alcohol-related cirrhosis. Achieving hepatic recompensation resulted in a >90% risk reduction in liver-related mortality.

Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection: An Ongoing Challenge in Screening and Treatment

With the advent of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) in the recent few years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has become a curable infectious disease. Successful clearance of HCV could lead to improvement of both hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes, such as complications of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, cardiovascular diseases, and incident diabetes. However, challenges persist in reaching the HCV elimination goals of the World Health Organization by 2030. Among these challenges are identifying those already infected or undiagnosed subjects, re-linking to the care of known but untreated HCV-infected subjects, and developing strategies to enhance treatment rates and compliance in specific or high-risk populations. In addition, issues of post-DAA viral clearance, including avoiding or preventing reinfection in high-risk populations and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma, are important to consolidate the treatment's short- and long-term efficacies. In the current DAA era, treatment is the most effective prevention strategy not only in its excellent efficacy and safety but also in preventing HCV spread. All of the surveillance or measures should center on DAA treatment in clinical practice.

Unmet Needs in the Post-Direct-Acting Antiviral Era: Hepatocarcinogenesis After Hepatitis C Virus Eradication

Infection with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Direct-acting antiviral therapy has transformed care for patients with HCV and reduces the risk of HCC. Despite HCV cure, a residual HCC risk remains in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, with multiple mechanisms underlying subsequent hepatocarcinogenesis. Transcriptomic and proteomic signatures demonstrate the capacity for HCC risk stratification, and chemoprevention strategies are emerging. For now, pending more precise stratification, HCC surveillance of patients with cured HCV and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis should continue.

Late-stage presentation with decompensated cirrhosis is alarmingly common but successful etiologic therapy allows for favorable clinical outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Liver cirrhosis accounts for considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide and late presentation limits therapeutic options. We aimed to assess characteristics of patients with liver cirrhosis at the time of first presentation and during their clinical course.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis as evident by presence of varices at endoscopy, liver stiffness ≥15kPa at elastography, or ascites requiring paracentesis between Q1/2015-Q2/2020 were retrospectively included. Clinical, laboratory, and imaging data were collected from medical records at presentation and last follow-up.

RESULTS

476 patients were included (alcohol-related liver disease, ALD: 211, 44.3%; viral hepatitis: 163, 34.2%). Of these, 106 patients (22.3%) and 160 patients (33.6%) presented already with Child-Pugh C and MELD >15, respectively, and decompensation events were registered in 50% (238 patients) at baseline, and even in 75.4% of ALD patients. During a median follow-up of 11.0 (IQR 4-24) months, 116 patients died. Two-year survival was worse for patients with ALD than for viral hepatitis (71.1% vs. 90.2%, log rank p<0.001). We observed the highest percentage of portal-vein thrombosis (30.0%), hepatocellular carcinoma (15.0%), and death (45.0%) in the MAFLD group (n = 20). Patients cured from hepatitis C showed significant improvements in platelet count (147 to 169 G/L, p<0.001) and liver stiffness (26.2 to 17.7 kPa, p<0.001), while ALD patients improved in Child-Pugh score (8.6 to 7.6, p<0.001) during follow-up. With increasing Child Pugh score and MELD, we found increasing serum concentrations of CRP (p<0.001) and an inverse correlation with serum HDL (Spearman's ρ = -0.573 and -0.529, respectively, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Half of the patients with cirrhosis had decompensated cirrhosis at presentation. This calls for increased awareness and strategies for earlier diagnosis of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma:Insights in epidemiology, pathogenesis, imaging, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is estimated to be the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and is characterized by low survival rates. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is emerging as a leading cause of HCC, whose rates are increasing, owing to the increasing prevalence of NAFLD. The pathogenesis of NAFLD-associated HCC is multifactorial: insulin resistance, obesity, diabetes and the low-grade hepatic inflammation, which characterizes NAFLD, seem to play key roles in the development and progression of HCC. The diagnosis of NAFLD-associated HCC is based on imaging in the presence of liver cirrhosis, preferably computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, but liver biopsy for histological confirmation is usually required in the absence of liver cirrhosis. Some preventive measures have been recommended for NAFLD-associated HCC, including weight loss, cessation of even moderate alcohol drinking and smoking, as well as the use of metformin, statins and aspirin. However, these preventive measures are mainly based on observational studies, thus they need validation in trials of different design before introducing in clinical practice. The treatment of NAFLD should be tailored on an individual basis and should be ideally determined by a multidisciplinary team. In the last two decades, new medications, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors and immune checkpoints inhibitors, have improved the survival of patients with advanced HCC, but trials specifically designed for patients with NAFLD-associated HCC are scarce. The aim of this review was to overview evidence on the epidemiology and pathophysiology of NAFLD-associated HCC, then to comment on imaging tools for its appropriate screening and diagnosis, and finally to critically summarize the currently available options for its prevention and treatment.

International Liver Cancer Association (ILCA) white paper on hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance

Major research efforts in liver cancer have been devoted to increasing the efficacy and effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As with other cancers, surveillance programmes aim to detect tumours at an early stage, facilitate curative-intent treatment, and reduce cancer-related mortality. HCC surveillance is supported by a large randomised-controlled trial in patients with chronic HBV infection and several cohort studies in cirrhosis; however, effectiveness in clinical practice is limited by several barriers, including inadequate risk stratification, underuse of surveillance, and suboptimal accuracy of screening tests. There are several proposed strategies to address these limitations, including risk stratification algorithms and biomarkers to better identity at-risk individuals, interventions to increase surveillance, and emerging imaging- and blood-based surveillance tests with improved sensitivity and specificity for early HCC detection. Beyond clinical validation, data are needed to establish clinical utility, i.e. increased early tumour detection and reduced HCC-related mortality. If successful, these data could facilitate a precision screening paradigm in which surveillance strategies are tailored to individual HCC risk to maximise overall surveillance value. However, practical and logistical considerations must be considered when designing and implementing these validation efforts. To address these issues, ILCA (the International Liver Cancer Association) adjourned a single topic workshop on HCC risk stratification and surveillance in June 2022. Herein, we present a white paper on these topics, including the status of the field, ongoing research efforts, and barriers to the translation of emerging strategies.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Necessity for surveillance for hepatocellualr carcinoma in older patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response

Background and Aim

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in low-risk patients (annual incidence <1.5%) is not recommended per the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines. Because patients with chronic hepatitis C with non-advanced fibrosis who have achieved sustained virological response (SVR) have a low risk of HCC, HCC surveillance is not recommended for them. However, aging is a risk factor for HCC; threfore, the necessity for HCC surveillance in older patients with non-advanced fibrosis needs to be verified.

Methods

This multicenter, prospective study enrolled 4993 patients with SVR (1998 patients with advanced fibrosis and 2995 patients with non-advanced fibrosis). The HCC incidence was examined with particular attention to age.

Results

The 3-year incidence of HCC in patients with advanced and non-advanced fibrosis was 9.2% (95% CI: 7.8-10.9) and 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1-3.7), respectively. HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with advanced fibrosis (P < 0.001). HCC incidence stratified by age and sex was investigated in patients with non-advanced fibrosis. The HCC incidence in the 18-49, 50s, 60s, 70s, and ≥80 age groups were 0.26, 1.3, 1.8, 1.7, and 2.9 per 100 person-years in men, and 0.00, 0.32, 0.58, 0.49, and 0.57 per 100 person-years in women, respectively.

Conclusions

Male patients with non-advanced fibrosis aged ≥60 years have a higher risk of developing HCC and, thus, require HCC surveillance.

Outcomes and Follow-Up after Hepatitis C Eradication with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) has been revolutionized with the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Patients can be treated at more advanced stages of liver disease, with a growing number of cirrhotic patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR). Long-term outcomes for cured patients and the optimal follow-up care of patients after SVR are yet to be defined, because most studies on cirrhotic patients cured with DAAs have a short follow-up period. There are many open questions related to patient management after viral eradication with DAAs, such as which could be the most reliable non-invasive tool to predict liver-related complications, or to what extent viral eradication reduces the risk of liver disease progression in the long term. Growing evidence supports the personalization of follow-up care based on individual risk. The aim of this narrative review is to analyze the impact of viral eradication with DAAs on clinically significant portal hypertension, hepatocellular carcinoma, and extrahepatic manifestations, as well as to summarize indications for optimal follow-up care of HCV patients treated with DAAs.

Non-invasive tools for compensated advanced chronic liver disease and portal hypertension after Baveno VII - an update

Non-invasive tests (NITs) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in particular, have entered clinical practice over 20 years ago as point-of-care tests to diagnose liver fibrosis in patients with compensated chronic liver disease. Since then, NITs use has evolved thanks to a large number of studies in all major etiologies of liver disease, and they have become important tools to stratify the risk of portal hypertension and liver-related events. The Baveno VII consensus workshop provided several novel recommendations regarding the use of well-established and novel NITs in the specific setting of portal hypertension screening, diagnosis and follow-up. The Baveno VII expert panels paid special attention to summarizing the existing data into simple clinical rules able to guide clinicians in their practice. The "rule of five" for LSM is a tool to stratify the risk of liver-related events, and LSM alone or in combination with platelet count, can be used now to rule-in and rule-out compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and clinically significant portal hypertension, as well as to rule-out high-risk varices. Use of NITs in obese subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and patients with viral hepatitis C that has been successfully treated, require specific knowledge. This review will update the reader on these aspects.

Profiling the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after long-term HCV eradication in patients with liver cirrhosis in the PITER cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Severe liver disease markers assessed before HCV eradication are acknowledged to usually improve after the SVR. We prospectively evaluated, in the PITER cohort, the long-term HCC risk profile based on predictors monitored after HCV eradication by direct-acting antivirals in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

HCC occurrence was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox regression analysis identified the post-treatment variables associated with de-novo HCC; their predictive power was presented in a nomogram.

RESULTS

After the end of therapy (median follow-up:28.47 months), among 2064 SVR patients, 119 (5.8%) developed de-novo HCC. The HCC incidence was 1.90%, 4.21%, 6.47% at 12-, 24- and 36-months from end-of-therapy, respectively (incidence rate 2.45/100 person-years). Age, genotype 3, diabetes, platelets (PLT)≤120,000/µl and albumin ≤3.5g/dl levels were identified as pre-treatment HCC independent predictors. Adjusting for age, the post-treatment PLT≤120,000/µl (AdjHR 1.92; 95%CI:1.06-3.45) and albumin≤3.5g/dl (AdjHR 4.38; 95%CI 2.48-7.75) values were independently associated with HCC occurrence. Two different risk profiles were identified by combining long-term post-therapy evaluation of PLT ≤ vs. >120,000/µl and albumin ≤ vs. >3.5g/dl showing a significant different HCC incidence rate of 1.35 vs. 3.77/100 p-y, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram score based on age, PLT and albumin levels after SVR showed an accurate prediction capability and may support the customizing management for early HCC detection.

Vascular endothelial growth factor A is a potential prognostic biomarker and correlates with immune cell infiltration in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths among cancer patients. Vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA) is involved in regulating biological processes, such as angiogenesis and vascular permeability, and is very closely related to the pathogenesis of various tumours, especially vascular-rich, solid tumours. Clinical data of patients with HCC and other tumours were analysed through public databases, such as the TCGA database, Gene Expression Omnibus database, Human Protein Atlas database, STRING, Tumour Immune Estimation Resource and Kaplan-Meier Plotter. The tumour tissues and adjacent normal tissues of patients with HCC from Hunan Provincial People's Hospital were collected to verify the expression of VEGFA by immunohistochemistry, immunofluorescence, Western blotting and qPCR. VEGFA expression is elevated in multiple tumour types and correlates with the prognosis of tumour patients. VEGFA is involved in regulating the tumour microenvironment and immune cell function in tumour development. Inhibition of VEGFA reduces proliferation, invasion, and migration and promotes apoptosis in HCC cells. VEGFA is a potential predictive biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC.

Chronic Hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection contributes significantly to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), often requiring liver transplantation. Introducing direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has radically changed HCV treatment. DAAs achieve high rates of sustained virological response (>98%). Even then, resistant-associated substitution and HCC during or after treatment have become prominent clinical concerns. Further, several clinically significant issues remain unresolved after successful HCV eradication by DAAs, including treating patients with chronic kidney disease or decompensated liver cirrhosis. Extensive and large-scale screening and treatment implementation programs are needed to make DAA therapies effective at the population level.

Thrombospondin-2 as a Predictive Biomarker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Hepatitis C Virus Elimination by Direct-Acting Antiviral

We evaluated the value of secreted glycoprotein thrombospondin-2 (TSP-2) to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). A total of 786 CHC patients without an HCC history who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) with DAAs were randomly assigned 2:1, with 524 patients as the derivation cohort and 262 patients as the validation cohort. Serum TSP-2 levels at the end of treatment were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In the derivation cohort, the cumulative HCC rate was significantly higher in the high TSP-2 group than in the low TSP-2 group. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that TSP-2, α-fetoprotein (AFP), and the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index were independent HCC risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the score calculated from these three factors (AFT score) for predicting HCC was 0.83, which was significantly higher than that of each factor alone (TSP-2: 0.70, AFP: 0.72, FIB-4: 0.69). The AFT score was used to stratify patients according to the risk of HCC occurrence in the validation cohort. Lastly, in patients with a FIB-4 index < 3.25, the serum TSP-2 levels could be used to identify those patients with a high risk of HCC occurrence. Serum TSP-2 levels are a predictive biomarker of HCC occurrence in CHC patients after HCV elimination by DAA treatment. The AFT score using TSP-2, AFP, and the FIB-4 index may identify those who require HCC surveillance.

Who Should Not Be Surveilled for HCC Development after Successful Therapy with DAAS in Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C? Results of a Long-Term Prospective Study

Background and aims: The identification of patients with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)-positive advanced chronic liver disease (aCLD) successfully treated by Direct Acting Antiviral Agents (DAAs) who really benefit from Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs is still a matter of debate. We performed a long-term prospective cohort study on F3-F4 HCV-positive patients achieving Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) after DAAs treatment in order to identify patients who can safely suspend surveillance. Methods: 1000 patients with HCV-positive aCLD obtaining SVR by DAAs from January 2015 to December 2017 were divided into four groups according to baseline elastographic, ultrasonographic, clinical and biochemical features: (1) Group 1: 324 patients with Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM) ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 (2) Group 2: 133 patients with LSM ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 and/or APRI ≥ 1.5 (3) Group 3: 158 patients with LSM > 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 (4) Group 4: 385 patients with LSM > 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 and/or APRI ≥ 1.5. FIB-4 and APRI scores were calculated at baseline and at SVR achievement. Each patient was surveiled twice-yearly by ultrasound for a median follow-up of 48 months. Results: among Group 1 patients, 1/324 (0.3%) developed HCC (0.09/100 patients/year [PY]), compared to 6/133 (4.5%) Group 2 patients (1.22/100 PY, p = 0.0009), 10/158 (6.3%) Group 3 patients (1.68/100 PY, p = 0.0001), 54/385 (14.0%) Group 4 patients (4.01/100 PY, p < 0.0001). HCC incidence was significantly lower in Group 2 compared to Group 3 (p = 0.004) and in Group 3 compared to Group 4 (p = 0.009). HCC risk fell in patients showing a decrease of FIB-4/APRI scores. Conclusions: the risk of HCC occurrence is negligible in about 90% of HCV-positive patients with baseline LSM ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa plus FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 achieving SVR. Among this particular subset of patients, FIB-4/APRI scores may represent an accurate and inexpensive tool to distinguish patients not needing long-term HCC surveillance.

Perspectives on the Underlying Etiology of HCC and Its Effects on Treatment Outcomes

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to be a serious medical problem with poor prognosis worldwide. The distribution of the major etiologies of HCC is changing due to the progress of anti-viral treatments, including hepatitis B virus (HBV) suppression by nucleoside/nucleotide analogues (NAs) and increased sustained virologic response (SVR) rates by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV), as well as the rising trend of nonviral liver disease. Although viral hepatitis remains the most common cause of HCC, non-alcoholic liver disease (NAFLD) with metabolic syndrome and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are increasing. Effective and well-tolerated NAs treatment can slow the disease progression of chronic HBV infection to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and reduce HCC risk. Treatment with NAs is also associated with significant improvement in the long-term survival of patients with HBV infection who already have HCC. DAAs have achieved viral elimination in almost all patients with HCV without significant adverse events, even in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and HCC. Similarly, DAA therapy can reduce disease progression, liver and non-liver complications, and improve the long-term survival of patients with chronic HCV infection with or without HCC. Meanwhile, NAFLD is a rapidly increasing cause of HCC along with the epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes globally. NAFLD-related HCC can occur in patients without cirrhosis and is known to have a lower survival rate than viral hepatitis-related HCC. Since there is currently no specific pharmacotherapy effective for NAFLD, lifestyle modification and prevention of complications are important to improve prognosis. Additionally, ALD is the second fastest-growing cause of HCC-related deaths, especially with an accelerated trend since the COVID-19 pandemic. This review provides an overview of the epidemiologic trends in the etiologies of HCC, and the progress of treatments for each etiology and the impact on outcome in the patients with HCC.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up after the start of direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus infection

Background and Aim

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have recently been developed to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Additionally, interferon-free DAA treatment has improved liver function and reduced the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following HCV eradication. Previous studies on HCV have focused mainly on the treatment rate and the risk of developing HCC, and less attention has been given to loss to follow-up (LTFU) after DAA treatment. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify the definitive risk factors for LTFU after the start of DAA treatment.

Methods

Between September 2017 and March 2022, 296 patients receiving glecaprevir and pibrentasvir for HCV infection were enrolled in this study. The incidence of LTFU following DAA treatment and the risk factors contributing to LTFU were identified using the patients' clinical characteristics.

Results

In the present study, 75 patients (25.3%) interrupted their follow-up visits. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed a history of injection drug use (hazard ratio [HR], 1.81; P = 0.017), treatment duration (8 weeks) (HR, 3.51; P = 0.0033), and age <70 years (HR, 1.9; P = 0.0422) as independent factors associated with LTFU after the start of DAA treatment.

Conclusion

Young patients and those with injection drug use are likely to discontinue their follow-up visits after the start of DAA treatment for HCV infection. Therefore, these patients require strict supervision.

Fucosylated haptoglobin is a novel predictive marker of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus elimination in patients with advanced liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced fibrosis are at risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. We previously reported that serum fucosylated haptoglobin (Fuc-Hp) levels increase as the disease progresses from chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis and then HCC. However, it remains unclear whether serum Fuc-Hp levels can stratify the risk of HCC occurrence after a sustained virological response (SVR) is achieved with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis.

METHODS

Among 3,550 patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with DAAs at Osaka University Hospital and related hospitals, the stored sera of 140 patients who were diagnosed with F3 or F4 by liver biopsy before DAA treatment, achieved SVR, and had no history of HCC were available at both baseline and the end of treatment (EOT). We measured the Fuc-Hp levels in these samples.

RESULTS

The median serum levels of Fuc-Hp at EOT were significantly lower than those at baseline. During the 54.4-month follow-up period, 16 of 140 patients developed HCC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that high Fuc-Hp at EOT, high body mass index (BMI), and low albumin at EOT were independent risk factors for HCC occurrence. Patients with all three factors-high Fuc-Hp, high BMI, and low albumin-had a higher incidence of HCC than patients without these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

High serum Fuc-Hp levels at EOT were an independent risk factor for HCC occurrence after SVR. Combined with BMI and albumin, Fuc-Hp can stratify the risk of HCC occurrence among those with advanced fibrosis.

Non-invasive tests for clinically significant portal hypertension after HCV cure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Non-invasive tests (NITs) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH; hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥10 mmHg) have predominantly been studied in patients with active HCV infection. Investigations after HCV cure are limited and have yielded conflicting results. We conducted a pooled analysis to determine the diagnostic/prognostic utility of liver stiffness measurement (LSM)/platelet count (PLT) in this setting.

METHODS

A total of 418 patients with pre-treatment HVPG ≥6 mmHg who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) and underwent post-treatment HVPG measurement were assessed, of whom 324 (HVPG/NIT-cohort) also had paired data on pre-/post-treatment LSM/PLT. The derived LSM/PLT criteria were then validated against the direct endpoint decompensation in 755 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) with SVR (cACLD-validation-cohort).

RESULTS

HVPG/NIT-cohort: Among patients with cACLD, the pre-/post-treatment prevalence of CSPH was 80%/54%. The correlation between LSM/HVPG increased from pre- to post-treatment (r = 0.45 vs. 0.60), while that of PLT/HVPG remained unchanged. For given LSM/PLT values, HVPG tended to be lower post- vs. pre-treatment, indicating the need for dedicated algorithms. Combining post-treatment LSM/PLT yielded a high diagnostic accuracy for post-treatment CSPH in cACLD (AUC 0.884; 95% CI 0.843-0.926). Post-treatment LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L excluded CSPH (sensitivity: 99.2%), while LSM ≥25 kPa was highly specific for CSPH (93.6%). cACLD-validation-cohort: the 3-year decompensation risk was 0% in the 42.5% of patients who met the LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L criteria. In patients with post-treatment LSM ≥25 kPa (prevalence: 16.8%), the 3-year decompensation risk was 9.6%, while it was 1.3% in those meeting none of the above criteria (prevalence: 40.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

NITs can estimate the probability of CSPH after HCV cure and predict clinical outcomes. Patients with cACLD but LSM <12 kPa & PLT>150 G/L may be discharged from portal hypertension surveillance if no co-factors are present, while patients with LSM ≥25 kPa require surveillance/treatment.

LAY SUMMARY

Measurement of liver stiffness by a specific ultrasound device and platelet count (a simple blood test) are broadly used for the non-invasive diagnosis of increased blood pressure in the veins leading to the liver, which drives the development of complications in patients with advanced liver disease. The results of our pooled analysis refute previous concerns that these tests are less accurate after the cure of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We have developed diagnostic criteria that facilitate personalized management after HCV cure and allow for a de-escalation of care in a high proportion of patients, thereby decreasing disease burden.

Outcomes of Interferon-free Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection Seven Years after Approval and Problems with Drop out during and after Treatment: A Retrospective, Single-center Study

Objective This retrospective, single-center study assessed the effects of interferon (IFN)-free treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, which has been approved for seven years; calculated the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR); and elucidated problems with follow-up for surveillance of post-SVR HCC, particularly the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods We summarized the SVR achievement rate of 286 HCV-infected patients who received 301 IFN-free treatments and analyzed the cumulative incidence of initial HCC and the cumulative continuation rate of follow-up after SVR in the 253 patients who achieved SVR and did not have a history of HCC. Results Among 286 patients who received IFN-free treatments, 14 dropped out, and the 272 remaining patients achieved an SVR after receiving up to third-line treatment. Post-SVR HCC occurred in 18 (7.1%) of the 253 patients without a history of HCC, with a cumulative incidence at 3 and 5 years after SVR of 6.6% and 10.0%, respectively; the incidence of cirrhosis at those time points was 18.2% and 24.6%, respectively.Of the 253 patients analyzed, 58 (22.9%) discontinued follow-up after SVR. Patients who had no experience with IFN-based therapy tended to drop out after SVR. Notably, the number of dropouts per month has increased since the start of the pandemic. Conclusion Currently, IFN-free treatment is showing great efficacy. However, the incidence of HCC after SVR should continue to be monitored. In this study, the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect treatment outcomes, but it may affect surveillance for post-SVR HCC.