An agent-based model for the transmission dynamics of Toxoplasma gondii

Virulence evolution of Toxoplasma gondii within a multi‐host system

Current research on the virulence evolution of Toxoplasma gondii is mainly conducted via experiments, and studies using mathematical models are still limited. Here, we constructed a complex cycle model of T. gondii in a multi-host system considering multiple transmission routes and cat-mouse interaction. Based on this model, we studied how the virulence of T. gondii evolves with the factors related to transmission routes and the regulation of infection on host behavior under an adaptive dynamics framework. The study shows that all factors that enhance the role of mice favored decreased virulence of T. gondii, except the decay rate of oocysts that led to different evolutionary trajectories under different vertical transmission. The same was true of the environmental infection rate of cats, whose effect was different under different vertical transmission. The effect of the regulation factor on the virulence evolution of T. gondii was the same as that of the inherent predation rate depending on its net effect on direct and vertical transmissions. The global sensitivity analysis on the evolutionary outcome suggests that changing the vertical infection rate and decay rate was most effective in regulating the virulence of T. gondii. Furthermore, the presence of coinfection would favor virulent T. gondii and make evolutionary bifurcation easy to occur. The results reveal that the virulence evolution of T. gondii had a compromise between adapting to different transmission routes and maintaining the cat-mouse interaction thereby leading to different evolutionary scenarios. This highlights the significance of evolutionary ecological feedback to evolution. In addition, the qualitative verification of T. gondii virulence evolution in different areas by the present framework will provide a new perspective for the study of evolution.

Role of landscape context in Toxoplasma gondii infection of invasive definitive and intermediate hosts on a World Heritage Island

Free-ranging cats are invasive species threatening biodiversity worldwide. They may also impose an environmental risk to humans and livestock through the transmission of zoonotic diseases. We investigated antibody levels against Toxoplasma gondii in free-ranging cats and black rats (definitive and representative intermediate hosts) by ELISA and determined their relationships with landscape environmental factors on Tokunoshima Island, Japan, the Natural World Heritage site. We found a higher seroprevalence (>70%) in both cats and black rats in landscapes where the cattle barn density was high. This was consistent with higher density of rats revealed in our trapping survey. The spatial scale of landscape factors affecting infection was broader in cats (1 km buffer radius) than in black rats (100 m buffer radius). Both cats and rats showed an increasing trend in optical density (OD) values with increasing body weight and landscape cattle barn density, suggesting that the antibody concentration increases as the chance of exposure to T. gondii in the environment increases. Thus, management actions to stop humans from feeding cats and to control rat populations without using cats are both necessary to reduce the human health risk as well as to conserve endangered species on the island.

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High seroprevalence of T. gondii was found in cats and black rats on an island.

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Seroprevalence was high (>70%) in landscapes where there were many cattle barns.

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Antibody level in cats was lower in forests and higher around residential areas.

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Spatial scale of environmental factors affecting infection was broader in cats.

Dynamics of toxoplasmosis in the cat's population with an exposed stage and a time delay

We propose a new mathematical model to investigate the effect of the introduction of an exposed stage for the cats who become infected with the T. gondii parasite, but that are not still able to produce oocysts in the environment. The model considers a time delay in order to represent the duration of the exposed stage. Besides the cat population the model also includes the oocysts related to the T. gondii in the environment. The model includes the cats since they are the only definitive host and the oocysts, since they are relevant to the dynamics of toxoplasmosis. The model considers lifelong immunity for the recovered cats and vaccinated cats. In addition, the model considers that cats can get infected through an effective contact with the oocysts in the environment. We find conditions such that the toxoplasmosis disease becomes extinct. We analyze the consequences of considering the exposed stage and the time delay on the stability of the equilibrium points. We numerically solve the constructed model and corroborated the theoretical results.

Mathematical modelling of Toxoplasma gondii transmission: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Toxoplasma gondii is a ubiquitous protozoan parasite that can infect virtually all warm-blooded animals. It is the causative agent of toxoplasmosis, a significant public health issue worldwide. Mathematical models are useful to study the transmission dynamics of T. gondii infection in different settings, and may be used to compare the effectiveness of prevention measures.

METHODS

To obtain an overview of existing mathematical models for transmission of T. gondii, a systematic review was undertaken. The review was conducted according to an a priori protocol and the results were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. Specific search terms were developed and used in the search of three databases (Scopus, PubMed, and Embase).

RESULTS

In total, 484 unique records were retrieved from the systematic search. Among them, 15 studies that used mathematical models to study the transmission of T. gondii. These studies were categorized into four groups based on the primary aims: dynamics of transmission (n = 8), intervention (n = 5), spatial distribution (n = 1), and outbreak investigation (n = 1).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the high disease burden caused by T. gondii, the number of studies using mathematical models to understand the transmission dynamics of this parasite and to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures was only 15. This systematic review provides an overview of existing mathematical models and identifies the data gaps for model building. The results from this study can be helpful for further development of mathematical models and improved understanding of the transmission dynamics of T. gondii infection.

Control of human toxoplasmosis

Toxoplasmosis is caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an apicomplexan parasite that is able to infect any nucleated cell in any warm-blooded animal. Toxoplasma gondii infects around 2 billion people and, whilst only a small percentage of infected people will suffer serious disease, the prevalence of the parasite makes it one of the most damaging zoonotic diseases in the world. Toxoplasmosis is a disease with multiple manifestations: it can cause a fatal encephalitis in immunosuppressed people; if first contracted during pregnancy, it can cause miscarriage or congenital defects in the neonate; and it can cause serious ocular disease, even in immunocompetent people. The disease has a complex epidemiology, being transmitted by ingestion of oocysts that are shed in the faeces of definitive feline hosts and contaminate water, soil and crops, or by consumption of intracellular cysts in undercooked meat from intermediate hosts. In this review we examine current and future approaches to control toxoplasmosis, which encompass a variety of measures that target different components of the life cycle of T. gondii. These include: education programs about the parasite and avoidance of contact with infectious stages; biosecurity and sanitation to ensure food and water safety; chemo- and immunotherapeutics to control active infections and disease; prophylactic options to prevent acquisition of infection by livestock and cyst formation in meat; and vaccines to prevent shedding of oocysts by definitive feline hosts.

Infectious Causation of Abnormal Host Behavior: Toxoplasma gondii and Its Potential Association With Dopey Fox Syndrome

The apicomplexan parasite Toxoplasma gondii, the causative agent of toxoplasmosis, can infect all warm-blooded animals. T. gondii can subtly alter host behaviors-either through manipulation to enhance transmission to the feline definitive host or as a side-effect, or "constraint," of infection. In humans, T. gondii infection, either alone or in association with other co-infecting neurotropic agents, has been reliably associated with both subtle behavioral changes and, in some cases, severe neuropsychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia. Research on the potential impact of T. gondii on the behavior of other long-lived naturally infected hosts is lacking. Recent studies reported a large number of wild red foxes exhibiting a range of aberrant behavioral traits, subsequently classified as Dopey Fox Syndrome (DFS). Here we assessed the potential association between T. gondii and/or other neurotropic agents with DFS. Live, captive foxes within welfare centers were serologically tested for T. gondii and, if they died naturally, PCR-tested for vulpine circovirus (FoxCV). Post-mortem pseudo-control wild foxes, obtained from pest management companies, were PCR-tested for T. gondii, FoxCV, canine distemper virus (CDV), canine adenovirus type (CAV)-1 and CAV-2. We also assessed, using non-invasive assays, whether T. gondii-infected foxes showed subtle behavioral alterations as observed among infected rodent (and other) hosts, including altered activity, risk, and stress levels. All foxes tested negative for CAV, CDV, CHV, and DogCV. DFS was found to be associated with singular T. gondii infection (captives vs. pseudo-controls, 33.3% (3/9) vs. 6.8% (5/74)) and singular FoxCV infection (66.7% (6/9) vs. 11.1% (1/9)) and with T. gondii/FoxCV co-infection (33.3% (3/9) vs. 11.1% (1/9)). Overall, a higher proportion of captive foxes had signs of neuroinflammation compared to pseudo-controls (66.7% (4/6) vs. 11.1% (1/9)). Consistent with behavioral changes seen in infected rodents, T. gondii-infected foxes displayed increased attraction toward feline odor (n=6 foxes). These preliminary results suggest that wild foxes with DFS are infected with T. gondii and likely co-infected with FoxCV and/or another co-infecting neurotropic agent. Our findings using this novel system have important implications for our understanding of both the impact of parasites on mammalian host behavior in general and, potentially, of the infectious causation of certain neuropsychiatric disorders.

Prospects of toxoplasmosis control by cat vaccination

INTRO

Toxoplasmosis has high disease burden in the Netherlands and in the rest of Europe. It can be acquired directly by ingestion of Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) oocysts shed by infected cats, or indirectly via consumption of undercooked meat from infected livestock. Cat vaccination has been proposed for reducing oocyst-acquired human infections but it remains unclear whether such an intervention can be effective. In this study we quantified the effects of using cat vaccination on reducing oocyst-originated T. gondii human infections.

METHOD

By using a disease dynamics compartmental model for T. gondii infections in cats and mice we studied the effects of a hypothetical cat vaccine on the presence of T. gondii oocysts in the environment. A fitted dose response model was used to assess the effect of oocyst reduction on the expected human infections.

RESULTS

For rats, mice and pigs, and possibly intermediate hosts in general, ingestion of one oocyst provides 30%-60% probability of T. gondii infection. Assuming a favourable ideal scenario where vaccination completely prevents oocyst shedding and predation rate is of one mouse per week per cat, eight cats can be left susceptible in order to achieve elimination and stop oocyst-originated transmission, independent of the total cat population. Considering populations of 1000, 100, 50 and 20 cats, cat vaccination coverage of 94%, 68%, 54% and 35%, respectively, would reduce expected oocyst-originated human cases by 50%.

CONCLUSION

For attaining elimination of oocyst-originated human infections, only few cats may remain unvaccinated, regardless of the cat-population size, and only a few more cats may remain unvaccinated for reducing infections substantially. Such vaccination coverages can in practice be achieved only when small cat-populations are considered, but in larger cat-populations the large efficacy and vaccination coverage needed are unfeasible.

Toxoplasmosis in pregnancy: a neglected bane but a serious threat in Nigeria

Toxoplasmosis is a global health threat in which occurrence in pregnant women poses grave consequences to fetal wellbeing. Studies on prenatal Toxoplasma gondii infection are generally limited in sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria. The risk of transmission of toxoplasmosis is very high in Nigeria due to the favourable climatic conditions and prevailing behavioural and socio-economic factors that could aid transmission. Currently, there are no systematic and organized procedures for diagnosis and treatment of maternal toxoplasmosis in Nigeria. These conditions forecast possible unabated transmission in many areas and exponential impact on associated adverse events of the disease during pregnancy. This paper highlights the importance of early diagnosis and treatment during pregnancy which may forestall subsequent development of infection in children delivered by infected mothers. Inclusion of toxoplasmosis control policy in the routine antenatal care of pregnant women is therefore strongly recommended.

A one health approach to vaccines against Toxoplasma gondii

Toxoplasmosis is a serious disease with global impact, now recognised as one of the most important food borne diseases worldwide and a major cause of production loss in livestock. A one health approach to develop a vaccination programme to tackle toxoplasmosis is an attractive and realistic prospect. Knowledge of disease epidemiology, parasite transmission routes and main risk groups has helped to target key host species and outcomes for a vaccine programme and these would be to prevent/reduce congenital disease in women and sheep; prevent/reduce T. gondii tissue cysts in food animal species and to prevent/reduce T. gondii oocyst shedding in cats. Most animals, including humans, develop good protective immunity following infection, involving cell mediated immune responses, which may explain why live vaccines are generally more effective to protect against T. gondii. Recent advances in our knowledge of parasite genetics and gene manipulation, strain variation, key antigenic epitopes, delivery systems and induction of immune responses are all contributing to the prospects of developing new vaccines which may be more widely applicable. A key area in progressing vaccine development is to devise standard vaccine efficacy models in relevant animal hosts and this is where a one health approach bringing together researchers across different disciplines can be of major benefit. The tools and technologies are in place to make a real impact in tackling toxoplasmosis using vaccination and it just requires a collective will to make it happen.

Human impact on the diversity and virulence of the ubiquitous zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii

A majority of emerging infectious diseases in humans are zoonoses. Understanding factors that influence the emergence and transmission of zoonoses is pivotal for their prevention and control. Toxoplasma gondii is one of the most widespread zoonotic pathogens known today. Whereas only a few genotypes of T. gondii dominate in the Northern Hemisphere, many genotypes coexist in South America. Furthermore, T. gondii strains from South America are more likely to be virulent than those from the Northern Hemisphere. However, it is not clear what factor(s) shaped modern-day genetic diversity and virulence of T. gondii Here, our analysis suggests that the rise and expansion of farming in the past 11,000 years established the domestic cat/mouse transmission cycle for T. gondii, which has undoubtedly played a significant role in the selection of certain linages of T. gondii Our mathematical simulations showed that within the domestic transmission cycle, intermediately mouse-virulent T. gondii genotypes have an adaptive advantage and eventually become dominant due to a balance between lower host mortality and the ability to superinfect mice previously infected with a less virulent T. gondii strain. Our analysis of the global type II lineage of T. gondii suggests its Old World origin but recent expansion in North America, which is likely the consequence of global human migration and trading. These results have significant implications concerning transmission and evolution of zoonotic pathogens in the rapidly expanding anthropized environment demanded by rapid growth of the human population and intensive international trading at present and in the future.

Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection

Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM) have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV) data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency.

Occurrence of Toxoplasma gondii and risk factors for infection in pigs raised and slaughtered in the Triângulo Mineiro region, Minas Gerais, Brazil

ABSTRACT: The Triângulo Mineiro region from Minas Gerais state, is an important meat-exporting region of Brazil and data about Toxoplasma gondii infection in pigs raised and slaughtered in this area are scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of T. gondii in swine and establish the risk factors associated with the infection. Samples were collected from 600 pigs raised under intensive system in farms located at three different counties (Carmo do Paranaíba, Patrocínio and Perdizes). The samples were submitted to indirect hemagglutination antibody test with dilution of 1:32 and to indirect immunofluorescence antibody test with a cutoff of 1:64. The occurrence of positive pig was 3.3% (n=20) and 51.8% (n=311) respectively. A significant difference was observed between toxoplasmatic infection and factors such as lineage, animal origin, size of the farm, collective raising with others species, presence of rodents and type of water offered (p≤0.05). There was no difference between gender and the farm goals. The results demonstrated an occurrence of anti-T.gondii antibodies higher than expected for intensive pig raising system on the studied area, which could indicate a possible sanitary management problem on the studied proprieties. Improvements on the raising techniques are necessary to reduce T. gondii infection sources.

CystiSim - An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control

Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities—pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential effect of intervention measures.

Taenia solium is the leading cause of preventable epilepsy and the highest ranking foodborne parasite in terms of disease burden worldwide. Currently there are no large scale control programmes implemented against T. solium, but efficacious intervention tools are there, making control programmes the next step forward. Because of the zoonotic properties of the parasite, existing in both humans and pigs, a combination of intervention tools is likely to be needed. cystiSim is an agent-based disease model that provides insight into which intervention tools, and the frequency of administration of these tools, are needed to yield an effect on disease prevalence. cystiSim is a valuable tool in designing future control programmes and will assist in the elimination of T. solium as a public health problem.

Salivary IgA against sporozoite-specific embryogenesis-related protein (TgERP) in the study of horizontally transmitted toxoplasmosis via T. gondii oocysts in endemic settings

The aim of this study was to contribute to the better understanding of the relative epidemiological importance of different modes of infection with respect to horizontal transmission of Toxoplasma gondii in endemic settings. We investigated the prevalence of salivary IgA against a sporozoite-specific embryogenesis-related protein (TgERP) in a highly endemic area for toxoplasmosis in Brazil in order to pinpoint parasite transmission via oocysts. Prevalence calculated by salivary IgA specific to TgERP was compared to the prevalence calculated by serum IgG against both TgERP and tachyzoites (in conventional serological tests). Prevalence calculated by different serological and salivary parameters varied in the studied age groups. However, for the 15-21 years age group, values for T. gondii prevalence estimated by conventional serological tests and by anti-TgERP salivary IgA were similar; i.e. 68·7% and 66·6% or 66·7%, respectively, using two different cut-off parameters for salivary IgA anti-TgERP. Furthermore, salivary IgA anti-TgERP for this age group presented the highest specificity (93·33%), sensitivity (93·94%), and likelihood (14·09) compared to all the other age groups. These data demonstrate the importance of age for salivary IgA investigation against TgERP to estimate the mode of T. gondii transmission in endemic settings.

Impact of environmental factors on the emergence, transmission and distribution of Toxoplasma gondii

Toxoplasma gondii is an obligate intracellular protozoan that poses a great threat to human health and economic well-being worldwide. The effects of environmental factors such as changing climate and human activities on the ecology of this protozoan are being discovered. Accumulated evidence shows that changes of these environmental factors can exert influence on the occurrence, transmission and distribution of T. gondii. This article reviews studies from different geographical regions with varying climates, social cultures and animal welfare standards. It aims to illustrate how these environmental factors work, highlighting their importance in influencing the ecology of T. gondii, as well as providing clues which may contribute to preventing transmission of this important zoonotic pathogen.

Modeling perspectives on echolocation strategies inspired by bats flying in groups

Bats navigating with echolocation - which is a type of active sensing achieved by interpreting echoes resulting from self-generated ultrasonic pulses - exhibit unique behaviors during group flight. While bats may benefit from eavesdropping on their peers׳ echolocation, they also potentially suffer from confusion between their own and peers׳ pulses, caused by an effect called frequency jamming. This hardship of group flight is supported by experimental observations of bats simplifying their sound-scape by shifting their pulse frequencies or suppressing echolocation altogether. Here, we investigate eavesdropping and varying pulse emission rate from a modeling perspective to understand these behaviors׳ potential benefits and detriments. We define an agent-based model of echolocating bats avoiding collisions in a three-dimensional tunnel. Through simulation, we show that bats with reasonably accurate eavesdropping can reduce collisions compared to those neglecting information from peers. In large populations, bats minimize frequency jamming by decreasing pulse emission rate, while collision risk increases; conversely, increasing pulse emission rate minimizes collisions by allowing more sensing information generated per bat. These strategies offer benefits for both biological and engineered systems, since frequency jamming is a concern in systems using active sensing.

Agricultural landscape and spatial distribution of Toxoplasma gondii in rural environment: an agent-based model

Background

Predicting the spatial distribution of pathogens with an environmental stage is challenging because of the difficulty to detect them in environmental samples. Among these pathogens, the parasite Toxoplasma gondii is the causative agent of the zoonosis toxoplasmosis, which is responsible for public health issues. Oocysts of T. gondii are excreted by infected cats in the environment, where they may survive and remain infectious for intermediate hosts, specifically rodents, during months to years. The landscape structure that determines the density and distribution of cats may thus impact the spatial distribution of T. gondii. In this study, we investigated the influences of rural settings on the spatial distribution of oocysts in the soil.

Method

We developed a spatially explicit agent based model to study how landscape structures impact on the spatial distribution of T. gondii prevalence in its rodent intermediate host as well as contamination in the environment. The rural landscape was characterized by the location of farm buildings, which provide shelters and resources for the cats. Specifically, we considered two configurations of farm buildings, i.e. inside and outside a village. Simulations of the first setting, with farm buildings inside the village, were validated using data from previous field studies. Then, simulation results of the two settings were compared to investigate the influences of the farm locations.

Results

Model predictions showed a steeper relationship between distance to the nearest farm and infection levels when farm buildings, and thus cats, were concentrated in the same area than when the farms were spread over the area. The relationship between distance to the village center and level of environmental contamination also differed between settings with a potential increased risk for inhabitants when farms are located inside the village. Maps of the risk of soil contaminated with oocysts were also derived from the model.

Conclusion

The agent-based model provides a useful tool to assess the risk of contamination by T. gondii oocysts at a local scale and determine the most at risk areas. Moreover it provides a basis to investigate the spatial dynamics of pathogens with an environmental stage.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-45) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evidence for finely-regulated asynchronous growth of Toxoplasma gondii cysts based on data-driven model selection

Toxoplasma gondii establishes a chronic infection by forming cysts preferentially in the brain. This chronic infection is one of the most common parasitic infections in humans and can be reactivated to develop life-threatening toxoplasmic encephalitis in immunocompromised patients. Host-pathogen interactions during the chronic infection include growth of the cysts and their removal by both natural rupture and elimination by the immune system. Analyzing these interactions is important for understanding the pathogenesis of this common infection. We developed a differential equation framework of cyst growth and employed Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) to determine the growth and removal functions that best describe the distribution of cyst sizes measured from the brains of chronically infected mice. The AIC strongly support models in which T. gondii cysts grow at a constant rate such that the per capita growth rate of the parasite is inversely proportional to the number of parasites within a cyst, suggesting finely-regulated asynchronous replication of the parasites. Our analyses were also able to reject the models where cyst removal rate increases linearly or quadratically in association with increase in cyst size. The modeling and analysis framework may provide a useful tool for understanding the pathogenesis of infections with other cyst producing parasites.

A large portion of people worldwide are chronically infected with T. gondii. Chronic infection with this parasite is characterized by formation of tissue cysts. Bradyzoites slowly replicate within cysts during the chronic stage of infection leading to a corresponding increase in cyst size. Cysts occasionally rupture and release bradyzoites that invade nearby host cells and convert into tachyzoites which can quickly proliferate. Tissue cysts can also be targeted by immune T cells and phagocytes for removal. We developed a differential equation model to investigate the cumulative effects of unknown growth and removal functions on the cyst-size distribution. We then used the AIC to select models that best fit experimental cyst size distribution data obtained from the brains of chronically infected mice. The results suggest that the within-cyst growth of bradyzoites is finely-regulated asynchronous such that the per capita growth rate is inversely proportional to the number of bradyzoites. While it may be surprising that the bradyzoites replicate in a way analogous to a factory producing a product, there may be factors such as nutrient availability, resource allocation, immune response, and other stress factors that may limit replication in cysts.

Food- and water-borne disease: using case control studies to estimate the force of infection that accounts for primary, sporadic cases

Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy matter. Classically, epidemiologists differentiate groups of hosts with different infection-risks according to their exposure to putative explanatory risk factors. The importance of these risk factors is assessed by case-control studies, in which the measure of effect (the difference in disease occurrence between one population and another) is the odds ratio. This paper describes for the first time how - and under what circumstances - the incidence in these different exposure groups can be estimated from odds ratios derived from case control studies in which controls have been selected by density sampling. This new estimation technique can be applied to any transmission modality but is especially useful in the case of models of food- and water-borne disease for which the case control literature represents a vast and, as yet, untapped resource. The paper finishes with a worked example using one of the most common of all food- and water-borne pathogens, Toxoplasma gondii.

Molecules to modeling: Toxoplasma gondii oocysts at the human-animal-environment interface

Environmental transmission of extremely resistant Toxoplasma gondii oocysts has resulted in infection of diverse species around the world, leading to severe disease and deaths in human and animal populations. This review explores T. gondii oocyst shedding, survival, and transmission, emphasizing the importance of linking laboratory and landscape from molecular characterization of oocysts to watershed-level models of oocyst loading and transport in terrestrial and aquatic systems. Building on discipline-specific studies, a One Health approach incorporating tools and perspectives from diverse fields and stakeholders has contributed to an advanced understanding of T. gondii and is addressing transmission at the rapidly changing human-animal-environment interface.

A mathematical model for within-host Toxoplasma gondii invasion dynamics

Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) is a protozoan parasite that infects a wide range of intermediate hosts, including all mammals and birds. Up to 20% of the human population in the US and 30% in the world are chronically infected. This paper presents a mathematical model to describe intra-host dynamics of T. gondii infection. The model considers the invasion process, egress kinetics, interconversion between fast-replicating tachyzoite stage and slowly replicating bradyzoite stage, as well as the host's immune response. Analytical and numerical studies of the model can help to understand the influences of various parameters to the transient and steady-state dynamics of the disease infection.