On the Estimation of the Cost-Effectiveness Threshold: Why, What, How?

Monetary valuation of one year in full capability and health based on demographics, health status, income and well-being

BACKGROUND

Budget constraints in health-care systems have led to the popularity of Cost Effectiveness Thresholds (CET) to achieve efficient allocation of resources. The capability approach has been hailed for its potentially richer evaluative capabilities compared to the QALY in terms of thresholds. Extensive research, however, is still limited.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study estimated the monetary value of a year in full capability (YFC) and compared it to monetary value of a QALY for the Hungarian population. Data was collected from a large, cross sectional, representative online survey on the adult Hungarian population. Applying the wellbeing valuation method, health, capability, and income were then regressed against wellbeing to estimate 'shadow prices' for one QALY and YFC controlling for gender, age, employment, education, marital and social support. To examine 'core' regression coefficients, a robustness check was conducted.

RESULTS

Health (VAS) and capability (ICECAP-A) had a positive and significant effect on Subjective Well-Being. The monetary values of one QALY and one YFC were 39 459 EUR and 58 148 EUR respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These tools provide a systematic approach to determining 'compensating income' for certain illnesses, disabilities and levels of pain. The capability approach shown to be broader than the QALY.

Factors associated with the author-reported cost-effectiveness threshold in high-income countries: systematic review and multivariable modelling

OBJECTIVE

The cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) is a key parameter to guide objective reimbursement decisions, yet very few countries have defined a reference CET, and there is no reference method for defining it. Our objective was to determine the factors explaining the author-reported CETs in the literature.

METHODS

Our systematic review targeted original articles referenced in EMBASE and published between 2010 and 2021. Selected studies had to use Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY), and being conducted in high-income countries. Our explanatory variables were: estimated cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), region of the world, source of funding, type of intervention, disease, year of publication, justification of the author-reported Cost-Effectiveness Threshold (ar-CET), economic perspective, and declaration of interest. Multivariable linear regression models implemented on R software were used, guided by a Directed Acyclic Graph.

RESULTS

Two hundred and fifty four studies were included. The mean ar-CET was €63,338/QALY (standard deviation (SD) 34,965) overall, and €37,748/QALY (SD 20,750) in studies conducted in the British Commonwealth. The ar-CET increased slightly with the ICER (+ 66€/QALY for each additional 10,000€/QALY in the ICER, 95% confidence interval (IC) [31-102], p < 0.001), was higher in the United States (+ 36,225€/QALY; IC [25,582; 46,869]) and Europe (+ 10,352€/QALY; IC [72; 20,631]) compared to the British Commonwealth (p < 0.001), and was higher when the ar-CET was not defined a priori (+ 22,393€/QALY; [5809; 38,876]) compared to state recommendations defined ar-CET (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results underline the virtuous role of state recommendations in the choice of a low and homogeneous CET. We also highlight the need to integrate the a priori justification of the CET into good publishing guidelines.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Single-Use Duodenoscope Applied to Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography

OBJECTIVES

Secondary infections due to transmission via the duodenoscope have been reported in up to 3% of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies. The use of single-use duodenoscopes has been suggested. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of these duodenoscopes use in cholangiopancreatography.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was implemented to compare the performance of cholangiopancreatographies with reusable duodenoscopes versus single-use duodenoscopes. Effectiveness was analyzed by calculating quality-adjusted life years (QALY) from the perspective of the National Health System. Possibility of crossover from single-use to reusable duodenoscopes was considered. A willingness-to-pay of €25,000/QALY was set, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated, and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Considering cholangiopancreatographies with single-use and reusable duodenoscopes at a cost of €2900 and €1333, respectively, and a 10% rate of single-use duodenoscopes, ICER was greater than €3,000,000/QALY. A lower single-use duodenoscope cost of €1211 resulted in an ICER of €23,583/QALY. When the unit cost of the single-use duodenoscope was €1211, a crossover rate of more than 9.5% made the use of the single-use duodenoscope inefficient.

CONCLUSIONS

Single-use duodenoscopes are cost-effective in a proportion of cholangiopancreatographies if its cost is reduced. Increased crossover rate makes single-use duodenoscope use not cost-effective.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a collaborative deprescribing intervention of proton-pump-inhibitors on community-dwelling older adults: Protocol for the C-SENIoR, a pragmatic non-randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Worldwide, demographic ageing is a major social, economic and health challenge. Despite the increase in life expectancy, elderly often live with multiple chronic conditions, exposing them to multiple medications. Concerns have been raised about the growing issue of inappropriate long-term usage of proton-pump inhibitors (PPI), which have been associated with adverse outcomes and increased healthcare costs. Deprescribing is a recommended intervention to reduce or withdraw medicines that might be causing harm or might no longer be of benefit. This protocol details a trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a collaborative deprescribing intervention of PPI among community-dwelling elderly, involving community pharmacists and general practitioners.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A pragmatic, multicentre, two-arm, non-randomised controlled trial of a structured PPI collaborative deprescribing intervention in the primary care setting with a 6-month follow-up will be conducted. Patients must be 65 years old or older, live in the community and have been using PPI for more than 8 weeks. We hypothesize that the intervention will reduce the PPI usage in the intervention group compared to the control group. The primary outcome is the successful discontinuation or dose decrease of any PPI, defined as a statistically significant absolute 20% reduction in medication use between the intervention and control groups at 3- and 6-month follow-ups. An economic evaluation will be conducted alongside the trial. This study was approved by the Ethics Research Committee of Nova Medical School, NOVA University of Lisbon and by the Ethics Committee from the Local Health Unit Alto Minho, Portugal.

DISCUSSION

This pragmatic trial will provide evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a patient-centred collaborative deprescribing intervention in the community setting in Portugal. It will also inform improvements for the development of future multi-faceted interventions that aim to optimise medication for the community-dwelling elderly.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 49637686.

Extended cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve uptake of diabetes services in South Africa

The rising prevalence of diabetes in South Africa (SA), coupled with significant levels of unmet need for diagnosis and treatment, results in high rates of diabetes-associated complications. Income status is a determinant of utilization of diagnosis and treatment services, with transport costs and loss of wages being key barriers to care. A conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme, targeted to compensate for such costs, may improve service utilization. We applied extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and used a Markov model to compare the costs, health benefits and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of a CCT programme. A population was simulated, drawing from SA-specific data, which transitioned yearly through various health states, based on specific probabilities obtained from local data, over a 45-year time horizon. Costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were applied to each health state. Three CCT programme strategies were simulated and compared to a 'no programme' scenario: (1) covering diagnosis services only; (2) covering treatment services only; (3) covering both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness was reported as incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) using a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD3015 per DALY for SA, while FRP outcomes were reported as catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) cases averted. Distributions of the outcomes were reported by income quintile and sex. Covering both diagnosis and treatment services for the bottom two quintiles resulted in the greatest INMB (USD22 per person) and the greatest CHE cases averted. There were greater FRP benefits for women compared to men. A CCT programme covering diabetes diagnosis and treatment services was found to be cost-effective, when provided to the poorest 40% of the SA population. ECEA provides a useful platform for including equity considerations to inform priority setting and implementation policies in SA.

A systematic review on the direct approach to elicit the demand-side cost-effectiveness threshold: Implications for low- and middle-income countries

Several literature review studies have been conducted on cost-effectiveness threshold values. However, only a few are systematic literature reviews, and most did not investigate the different methods, especially in-depth reviews of directly eliciting WTP per QALY. Our study aimed to 1) describe the different direct approach methods to elicit WTP/QALY; 2) investigate factors that contribute the most to the level of WTP/QALY value; and 3) investigate the relation between the value of WTP/QALY and GDP per capita and give some recommendations on feasible methods for eliciting WTP/QALY in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A systematic review concerning select studies estimating WTP/QALY from a direct approach was carried out in seven databases, with a cut off date of 03/2022. The conversion of monetary values into 2021 international dollars (i$) was performed via CPI and PPP indexes. The influential factors were evaluated with Bayesian model averaging. Criteria for recommendation for feasible methods in LMICs are made based on empirical evidence from the systematic review and given the resource limitation in LMICs. A total of 12,196 records were identified; 64 articles were included for full-text review. The WTP/QALY method and values varied widely across countries with a median WTP/QALY value of i$16,647.6 and WTP/QALY per GDP per capita of 0.53. A total of 11 factors were most influential, in which the discrete-choice experiment method had a posterior probability of 100%. Methods for deriving WTP/QALY vary largely across studies. Eleven influential factors contribute most to the level of values of WTP/QALY, in which the discrete-choice experiment method was the greatest affected. We also found that in most countries, values for WTP/QALY were below 1 x GDP per capita. Some important principles are addressed related to what LMICs may be concerned with when conducting studies to estimate WTP/QALY.

Systematic review of the impact of health care expenditure on health outcome measures: implications for cost-effectiveness thresholds

OBJECTIVE

Empirical estimates of the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures may inform the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) for guiding funding decisions. This study aims to systematically review studies that estimated this, summarize and compare the estimates by country income level.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, York Research database, and [anonymized] for Reviews and Dissemination database from inception to 1 August 2023. For inclusion, a study had to be an original article, estimating the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures at a country level, and presented estimates, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

We included 18 studies with 385 estimates. The median (range) estimates were PPP$ 11,224 (PPP$ 223 - PPP$ 288,816) per QALY gained and PPP$ 5,963 (PPP$ 71 - PPP$ 165,629) per DALY averted. As ratios of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPPC), these estimates were 0.376 (0.041-182.840) and 0.318 (0.004-37.315) times of GDPPC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The commonly used CET of GDPPC seems to be too high for all countries, but especially low-to-middle-income countries where the potential health losses from misallocation of the same money are greater.

REGISTRATION

The review protocol was published and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020147276).

A Framework for the Fair Pricing of Medicines

As high-cost medicines put increasing pressure on public health care budgets, the need to identify 'fair' prices for medicines has never been greater. This paper proposes a framework, built upon fundamental economic principles, that allows for the consideration of 'fair' prices for medicines. The framework incorporates key considerations from conventional supply-side and demand-side approaches for specifying a cost-effectiveness 'threshold', including the health opportunity cost borne by other patients ([Formula: see text]) and society's willingness to pay for marginal improvements in population health ([Formula: see text]). The costs incurred by manufacturers in developing and supplying new medicines are also considered, as are the incentives for manufacturers to strategically price up to any common price per unit of benefit (cost-effectiveness 'threshold') specified by the payer. The framework finds that, at any 'fair' price, a medicine's dynamically calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) lies below [Formula: see text]. When pricing medicines collectively, the framework finds that a common price below [Formula: see text] is required to maximize population health (consumer surplus) or to maximize total welfare (consumer and producer surplus). This framework has important policy implications for payers who wish to improve population health outcomes from constrained health care budgets. In particular, existing approaches to 'value-based pricing' should be reconsidered to ensure that patients receive a 'fair' share of the resulting economic surplus.

Why cost-effectiveness thresholds for global health donors should differ from thresholds for Ministries of Health (and why it matters)

Healthcare cost-effectiveness analysis is increasingly used to inform priority-setting in low- and middle-income countries and by global health donors. As part of such analyses, cost-effectiveness thresholds are commonly used to determine what is, or is not, cost-effective. Recent years have seen a shift in best practice from a rule-of-thumb 1x or 3x per capita GDP threshold towards using thresholds that, in theory, reflect the opportunity cost of new investments within a given country. In this paper, we observe that international donors face both different resource constraints and opportunity costs compared to national decision-makers. Hence, their perspective on cost-effectiveness thresholds must be different. We discuss the potential implications of distinguishing between national and donor thresholds and outline broad options for how to approach setting a donor-perspective threshold. Further work is needed to clarify healthcare cost-effectiveness threshold theory in the context of international aid and to develop practical policy frameworks for implementation.

Establishing cost-effectiveness threshold in China: a community survey of willingness to pay for a healthylife year

INTRODUCTION

The willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year gained (WTP/Q) is commonly used to determine whether an intervention is cost-effective in health technology assessment. This study aimed to evaluate the WTP/Q for different disease scenarios in a Chinese population.

METHODS

The study employed a quadruple-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method to estimate the WTP/Q in the general public. The estimation was conducted across chronic, terminal and rare disease scenarios. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in a Chinese general population recruited from Jiangsu province using a convenience sampling method. Interval regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between respondents' demographic and socioeconomic conditions and WTP/Q. Sensitivity analyses of removing protest responses and open question analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 896 individuals participated in the study. The WTP/Q thresholds were 128 000 Chinese renminbi (RMB) ($36 364) for chronic diseases, 149 500 RMB ($42 472) for rare diseases and 140 800 RMB ($40 000) for terminal diseases, equivalent to 1.76, 2.06 and 1.94 times the gross domestic product per capita in China, respectively. The starting bid value had a positive influence on participants' WTP/Q. Additionally, residing in an urban area (p<0.01), and higher household expenditure (p<0.01), educational attainment (p<0.02) and quality of life (p<0.02) were significantly associated with higher WTP/Q. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSION

This study implies that tailored or varied rather than a single cost-effectiveness threshold could better reflect community preferences for the value of a healthy year. Our estimates hold significance in informing reimbursement decision-making in health technology assessment in China.

Resource allocation in public sector programmes: does the value of a life differ between governmental departments?

BACKGROUND

The value of a life is regularly monetised by government departments for informing resource allocation. Guidance documents indicate how economic evaluation should be conducted, often specifying precise values for different impacts. However, we find different values of life and health are used in analyses by departments within the same government despite commonality in desired outcomes. This creates potential inconsistencies in considering trade-offs within a broader public sector spending budget. We provide evidence to better inform the political process and to raise important issues in assessing the value of public expenditure across different sectors.

METHODS

Our document analysis identifies thresholds, explicitly or implicitly, as observed in government-related publications in the following public sectors: health, social care, transport, and environment. We include both demand-side and supply-side thresholds, understood as societies' and governments' willingness to pay for health gains. We look at key countries that introduced formal economic evaluation processes early on and have impacted other countries' policy development: Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. We also present a framework to consider how governments allocate resources across different public services.

RESULTS

Our analysis supports that identifying and describing the Value of a Life from disparate public sector activities in a manner that facilitates comparison is theoretically meaningful. The optimal allocation of resources across sectors depends on the relative position of benefits across different attributes, weighted by the social value that society puts on them. The value of a Quality-Adjusted Life Year is generally used as a demand-side threshold by Departments of transport and environment. It exceeds those used in health, often by a large enough proportion to be a multiple thereof. Decisions made across departments are generally based on an unspecified rationing rule.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing government expenditure across different public sector departments, in terms of the value of each department outcome, is not only possible but also desirable. It is essential for an optimal resource allocation to identify the relevant social attributes and to quantify the value of these attributes for each department.

The Relationship Between Pharmaceutical Innovation and Cancer Mortality in Spain, From 1999 to 2016

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the relationship across cancer sites between pharmaceutical innovation and changes in cancer mortality in Spain during the period between 1999 and 2016.

METHODS

I investigated whether the cancer sites for which more new drugs were authorized had larger reductions in mortality from 1999 to 2016 in Spain, controlling for the lagged change in cancer incidence. The principal measure of pharmaceutical innovation is the long-run change in the mean vintage (year of initial authorization in Spain) of the drugs for the treatment of a cancer previously authorized in Spain.

RESULTS

The 1999 to 2016 increase in mean age at death tended to be larger, and the 1999 to 2016 increase in the number of deaths and life-years lost before the ages 65 years, 75 years, and 85 years tended to be smaller for cancer sites that had larger current or lagged increases in drug vintage. Pharmaceutical innovation was associated with a 2.77-year increase in mean age at death from cancer from 1999 to 2016-96% of the observed increase. New drug authorization during the previous 17 years were associated with a reduction in the number of life-years lost before the age of 75 years in 2016 of 333 000. Under the assumption that the association between pharmaceutical innovation and mortality reduction is causal, estimated drug expenditure per life year before the age of 75 years gained in 2016 from new cancer drugs that were authorized between 2000 and 2016 was €3269.

CONCLUSIONS

The cancer sites for which there were more pharmaceutical innovation-more new drugs authorized-had larger 1999 to 2016 reductions in mortality in Spain, controlling for the lagged change in cancer incidence.

Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion Versus Microendoscopic Posterior Cervical Foraminotomy for Unilateral Cervical Radiculopathy: A 1-Year Cost-Utility Analysis

BACKGROUND

Anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) and posterior cervical foraminotomy (PCF) are the most common surgical approaches for medically refractory cervical radiculopathy. Rigorous cost-effectiveness studies comparing ACDF and PCF are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-utility of ACDF vs PCF performed in the ambulatory surgery center setting for Medicare and privately insured patients at 1-year follow-up.

METHODS

A total of 323 patients who underwent 1-level ACDF (201) or PCF (122) at a single ambulatory surgery center were compared. Propensity matching generated 110 pairs (220 patients) for analysis. Demographic data, resource utilization, patient-reported outcome measures, and quality-adjusted life-years were assessed. Direct costs (1-year resource use × unit costs based on Medicare national allowable payment amounts) and indirect costs (missed workdays × average US daily wage) were recorded. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

Perioperative safety, 90-day readmission, and 1-year reoperation rates were similar between groups. Both groups experienced significant improvements in all patient-reported outcome measures at 3 months that was maintained at 12 months. The ACDF cohort had a significantly higher preoperative Neck Disability Index and a significantly greater improvement in health-state utility (ie, quality-adjusted life-years gained) at 12 months. ACDF was associated with significantly higher total costs at 1 year for both Medicare ($11 744) and privately insured ($21 228) patients. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ACDF was $184 654 and $333 774 for Medicare and privately insured patients, respectively, reflecting poor cost-utility.

CONCLUSION

Single-level ACDF may not be cost-effective in comparison with PCF for surgical management of unilateral cervical radiculopathy.

Cost-effectiveness and willing-to-pay thresholds for vertebral augmentation of osteoporotic vertebral fractures, what are they based on: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Although there is substantial clinical evidence on the safety and effectiveness of vertebral augmentation for osteoporotic vertebral fractures, cost-effectiveness is less well known. The objective of this study is to provide a systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies and policy-based willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds for different vertebral augmentation (VA) procedures, vertebroplasty (VP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BK), for osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVFs).

DESIGN

A systematic review targeting cost-effectiveness studies of VA procedures for OVFs.

DATA SOURCES

Six bibliographic databases were searched from inception up to May 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies were eligible if meeting all predefined criteria: (1) VP or BK intervention, (2) OVFs and (3) cost-effectiveness study. Articles not written in English, abstracts, editorials, reviews and those reporting only cost data were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Information was extracted on study characteristics, cost-effective estimates, summary decisions and payer WTP thresholds. Incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) was the main outcome measure. Studies were summarised by a structured narrative synthesis organised by comparisons with conservative management (CM). Two independent reviewers assessed the quality (risk of bias) of the systematic review and cost-effectiveness studies by peer-reviewed checklists.

RESULTS

We identified 520 references through database searching and 501 were excluded as ineligible by titles and abstract. Ten reports were identified as eligible from 19 full-text reviews. ICER for VP versus CM evaluated as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ranged from €22 685 (*US$33 395) in Netherlands to £-2240 (*US$-3273), a cost-saving in the UK. ICERs for BK versus CM ranged from £2706 (*US$3954) in UK to kr600 000 (*US$90 910) in Sweden. ICERs were within payer WTP thresholds for a QALY based on historical benchmarks.

CONCLUSIONS

Both VP and BK were judged cost-effective alternatives to CM for OVFs in economic studies and were within WTP thresholds in multiple healthcare settings.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative NTRK testing strategies in cancer patients followed by histology-independent therapy with entrectinib: an analysis of three European countries

Aim: To explore variations in the cost-effectiveness of entrectinib across different testing strategies and settings. Methods: Four testing strategies where adult cancer patients received entrectinib if they tested positive for NTRK gene fusions compared with 'no testing' and standard of care (SoC) for all patients were evaluated. Results: Immunohistochemistry for all patients followed by RNA-based next-generation sequencing after a positive result was the optimal strategy in all included countries. However, the incremental net monetary benefit compared with SoC was negative in all countries, ranging between international euros (int€) -206 and -404. In a subgroup analysis with only NTRK-positive patients, the incremental net monetary benefit was int€ 8405 in England, int€ -53,088 in Hungary and int€ 54,372 in The Netherlands. Conclusion: Using the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by national guidelines, none of the testing strategies were cost-effective compared with no testing. The implementation of entrectinib is unlikely to become cost-effective in Hungary, due to the large cost difference between the entrectinib and SoC arms, while there might be more potential in England and The Netherlands.

The social value of health: Amenable deaths and estimated the gap with the life expectancy frontier

We estimate the life expectancy gaps that can be bridged by improving the quality of public health and health care policies at the country level. Our model calculates the net effect of amenable deaths on life expectancy after controlling for time effects and factors affecting amenable deaths related to education, health policies (health expenditure to GDP and waiting lists), and per capita income in a two equation system. We further estimate the life expectancy gap that countries with lower quality health systems can bridge by catching up and reaching the existing health quality frontier and compute the social value of that upside potential.

The Value of Health in a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Theory Versus Practice

A cost-effectiveness analysis has become an important method to inform allocation decisions and reimbursement of new technologies in healthcare. A cost-effectiveness analysis requires a threshold to which the cost effectiveness of a new intervention can be compared. In principle, the threshold ought to reflect opportunity costs of reimbursing a new technology. In this paper, we contrast the practical use of this threshold within a CEA with its theoretical underpinnings. We argue that several assumptions behind the theoretical models underlying this threshold are violated in practice. This implies that a simple application of the decision rules of CEA using a single estimate of the threshold does not necessarily improve population health or societal welfare. Conceptual differences regarding the interpretation of the threshold, widely varying estimates of its value, and an inconsistent use within and outside the healthcare sector are important challenges in informing policy makers on optimal reimbursement decision and setting appropriate healthcare budgets.

The Allocation of the Economic Value of Second-Generation Antipsychotics Over the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Risperidone in Sweden and the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

This article estimates the life-cycle value of risperidone as representative of second-generation antipsychotics (SGA) relative to haloperidol (first-generation antipsychotics).

METHODS

We estimated the number of patients treated with risperidone in Sweden and the United Kingdom, from 1994 to 2017, using data of usage and volume sales. We collected data from the literature on the effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years per patient per year), direct costs (health services), and indirect costs (productivity) of risperidone and haloperidol. We proxied the incremental value added by the new class (SGA) using a comparator from the inferior class. Next, we modeled the life-cycle uptake of risperidone to estimate the life-cycle incremental cost (ie, direct, indirect, and medicine costs), incremental quality-adjusted life-years, and net monetary benefit of risperidone. We also assessed the life-cycle distribution of the social surplus between the payer (consumer surplus) and the innovator (producer surplus).

RESULTS

For the United Kingdom, consumer surplus represents around 72% of the total surplus before patent expiration and around 95% after patent expiration. For Sweden, the consumer surplus represents around 94% of the total surplus before patent expiration and around 99% after generic competition.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the value added by SGAs to the system is higher than the expected value estimated using cost-effectiveness analysis at launch. Pricing and reimbursement decisions could recognize the full life cycle of value of innovative medicines. This not only presents a challenge of estimation but also of assessing the appropriate division of shares of social value.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Adjunctive Lifestyle Interventions for the Management of Cancer: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

There is a paucity of papers synthesizing the cost-effectiveness (CE) of lifestyle interventions to support cancer patients, and the synthesis papers available have used analytic methods that do not permit easy comparison between studies. We therefore evaluated the CE of adjunctive lifestyle interventions compared with usual care.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of Scopus, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library databases was conducted from database inception until June 2021. Eligible studies were economic evaluations from randomised controlled trials or modelled economic evaluations that recruited subjects with a confirmed diagnosis of cancer and were allocated to a lifestyle intervention as an adjunct or supportive treatment, or usual care. Studies were excluded if there was no cost-effectiveness analysis or if costs were identified but not related back to measures of effectiveness. CE of the included interventions was recalculated, adjusting for key differences (with respect to absolute resource costs and timing) between the broad range of study settings and a common 'target' setting. All CE data were converted into incremental net monetary benefit using a common cost-effectiveness threshold to facilitate comparison. The quality of the studies was evaluated for risk of bias using the ECOBIAS check list.

RESULTS

Nine studies were included in our review. Seven studies investigated the benefits of physical exercise in combination with cancer treatment and two studies investigated the combination of exercise and psychosocial counselling alongside cancer treatment. Six studies with an exercise intervention reported larger quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains compared with usual care and when cost per QALY gained was considered, three of the interventions were cost effective. One of the two interventions combining exercise with psychosocial counselling was cost effective. All studies were considered of good quality but all had some limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence to support the cost effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in patients with cancer is mixed with four of the nine interventions found to be cost effective and two remaining cost effective when uncertainty was taken into account. Sensitivity analysis showed the influence of the CE threshold on the results, highlighting the importance of selecting a CE threshold that is appropriate to the setting.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42020185376.

Mapping the EQ-5D-5L from the Spanish national health survey functional disability scale through Bayesian networks

PURPOSE

Preference-based measures are valuable tools for evaluating therapeutic interventions and for cost-effectiveness studies. Mapping procedures are useful when it is not possible to collect these kind of measures. The objective of this study was to evaluate which mapping method is the most appropriate to estimate the EQ-5D-5L index from the Spanish National Health Survey functional disability scale.

METHODS

The sample, formed by 5708 older adults (aged 65 years or older), was drawn from the Spanish National Health Survey ("Encuesta Nacional de Salud en España," ENSE in Spanish 2011-2012). The predictions of EQ-5D-5L index were performed with response mapping using Bayesian network (BN), ordered logit (Ologit), and multinomial logistic (ML). The following direct methods were used: ordinary least squares (OLS) and Tobit regression. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and root-mean squared error (RMSE) were calculated to compare all models. The predictions of response models were obtained through the expected value method.

RESULTS

BN model showed the highest ICC (0.756, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.733-0.777) and lowest MAE (0.110, 95% CI 0.104-0.115). OLS was the model with worse accuracy results with lowest ICC (0.621, 95% CI 0.553-0.681) and highest MAE (0.159, 95%CI: 0.145-0.173).

CONCLUSION

Indirect mapping methods (BN, Ologit, and ML) had a better accuracy than the direct methods. The response mapping approach provides a robust method to estimate EQ-5D-5L scores from the functional disability scale.

Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion in the Ambulatory Surgery Center Versus Inpatient Setting: One-Year Cost-Utility Analysis

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.

OBJECTIVE

Assess the cost-utility of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) performed in the ambulatory surgery center (ASC) versus inpatient hospital setting for Medicare and privately insured patients at one-year follow-up.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Outpatient ACDF has gained popularity due to improved safety and reduced costs. Formal cost-utility studies for ambulatory versus inpatient ACDF are lacking, precluding an accurate assessment of cost-effectiveness.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 6504 patients enrolled in the Quality Outcomes Database (QOD) undergoing one-level to two-level ACDF at a single ASC (520) or the inpatient hospital setting (5984) were compared. Propensity matching generated 748 patients for analysis (374 per cohort). Demographic data, resource utilization, patient-reported outcome measures, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were assessed. Direct costs (1-year resource use×unit costs based on Medicare national allowable payment amounts) and indirect costs (missed workdays×average US daily wage) were recorded. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

Complication rates and improvements in patient-reported outcome measures and QALYs were similar between groups. Ambulatory ACDF was associated with significantly lower total costs at 1 year for Medicare ($5879.46) and privately insured ($12,873.97) patients, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for inpatient ACDF was $3,674,662 and $8,046,231 for Medicare and privately insured patients, respectively, reflecting unacceptably poor cost-utility.

CONCLUSION

Inpatient ACDF is associated with significant increases in total costs compared to the ASC setting without a safety, outcome, or QALY benefit. The ASC setting is a dominant option from a health economy perspective for first-time one-l to two-level ACDF in select patients compared to the inpatient hospital setting.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Esketamine for Patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression in Italy

AIM

Major depressive disorder is considered one of the most frequent diseases in the general population, and treatment-resistant depression (TRD) represents the subset with more significant clinical and social impact. Large, robust phase III studies have shown safety and efficacy of esketamine nasal spray plus SSRI/SNRI antidepressants (ADs) compared with SSRI/SNRI plus placebo nasal spray in patients with TRD. The main aim of this study was to perform a cost-utility analysis comparing esketamine plus ADs with ADs alone in TRD patients, from the societal perspective in Italy. A secondary analysis focused on the National Healthcare Service (NHS) perspective.

METHODS

A Markov multistate model has been developed to estimate quality-adjusted life years and economic outcomes of both treatment strategies over 5 years considering the initiation of esketamine in the different treatment lines, from 3 to 5 (3L-5L). The model has been populated with data from literature and real-world evidence. The analysis from the societal perspective considered direct healthcare costs and patients' productivity losses. In addition to the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR), the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) has been calculated as (incremental benefit × WTP) - incremental cost and by applying a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 50,000€/QALY. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been performed to assess the robustness of the model results.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective, the ICUR ranged between 16,314€ and 22,133€ per QALY according to the different treatment lines, while it was over the threshold of 100,000€/QALY for the NHS perspective. The INMB was positive and ranged from 2259€ to 2744€ across treatment lines in the societal perspective; the INMB begins to occur earlier when moving towards subsequent lines of treatment (3.9 years for 3L, 3.6 years for 4L and 3.5 years for 5L). The analyses showed also that the advantage in terms of INMB is maintained for a wide range of societal preferences expressed by WTP thresholds, and in particular for values above 22,200€, 16,400€ and 17,100€ for 3L, 4L and 5L, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that esketamine may be a cost-effective opportunity from the societal perspective for the management of patients with treatment-resistant depression. In the future, data collected from observational studies or registries, which can include the collection of productivity losses and also costs sustained by the patients, will be able to provide further evidence in order to improve the reliability of the model results.

[Cost-effectiveness of universal childhood vaccination against hepatitis A in Spain: a dynamic approach]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of infant universal vaccination against hepatitis A in Spain.

METHOD

Using a dynamic model and decision tree model, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to compare three vaccination strategies against hepatitis A: non-vaccination strategy versus universal childhood vaccination of hepatitis A with one or two doses. The perspective of the study was that of the National Health System (NHS) and a lifetime horizon was considered. Both costs and effects were discounted at 3% per year. Health outcomes were measured in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALY) and the cost-effectiveness measure used was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In addition, deterministic sensitivity analysis by scenarios was performed.

RESULTS

In the particular case of Spain, with low endemicity for hepatitis A, the difference in health outcomes between vaccination strategies (with 1 or 2 doses) and non-vaccination are practically non-existent, terms of QALY. In addition, the ICER obtained is high, exceeding the limits of willingness to pay from Spain (€22,000-25,000/QALY). The deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that the results are sensitive to the variations of the key parameters, although in no case the vaccination strategies are cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal infant vaccination strategy against hepatitis A would not be a cost-effective option from the NHS perspective in Spain.

Informing a cost-effectiveness threshold for Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to reform health care across the Kingdom, with health technology assessment being adopted as one tool promising to improve the efficiency with which resources are used. An understanding of the opportunity costs of reimbursement decisions is key to fulfilling this promise and can be used to inform a cost-effectiveness threshold. This paper is the first to provide a range of estimates of this using existing evidence extrapolated to the context of Saudi Arabia.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We use four approaches to estimate the marginal cost per unit of health produced by the healthcare system; drawing from existing evidence provided by a cross-country analysis, two alternative estimates from the UK context, and based on extrapolating a UK estimate using evidence on the income elasticity of the value of health. Consequences of estimation error are explored.

RESULTS

Based on the four approaches, we find a range of SAR 42,046 per QALY gained (48% of GDP per capita) to SAR 215,120 per QALY gained (246% of GDP per capita). Calculated potential central estimates from the average of estimated health gains based on each source gives a range of SAR 50,000-75,000. The results are in line with estimates from the emerging literature from across the world.

CONCLUSION

A cost-effectiveness threshold reflecting health opportunity costs can aid decision-making. Applying a cost-effectiveness threshold based on the range SAR 50,000 to 75,000 per QALY gained would ensure that resource allocation decisions in healthcare can in be informed in a way that accounts for health opportunity costs.

LIMITATIONS

A limitation is that it is not based on a within-country study for Saudi Arabia, which represents a promising line of future work.

Achieving malaria testing and treatment targets for children under five in Mozambique: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

The entire population of Mozambique is at risk for malaria, which remains one of the leading causes of death. The 2017–2022 National Malaria Strategic Plan focuses on reducing malaria morbidity and mortality in high- and low-transmission areas. This study aimed to estimate the costs and health benefits of six variations of the World Health Organization’s “test-and-treat” strategy among children under five.

Methods

A decision tree model was developed that estimates the costs and health outcomes for children under five. Data on probabilities, costs, weights for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were based on peer-reviewed, grey literature, and primary data analysis of the 2018 Malaria Indicator Survey. Six scenarios were compared to the status quo and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained, DALY averted, and life saved. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the findings.

Results

In the base case, reaching the target of 100% testing with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs; Scenario 1) is more cost-effective than improving the testing rate alone by 10% (Scenario 2). Achieving a 100% (Scenario 3) or a 10% increase in treatment rate (Scenario 4) have ICERs that are lower than Scenarios 1 and 2. Both Scenarios 5 and 6, which represent combinations of Scenarios 1–4, have lower ICERs than their constituent strategies on their own, which suggests that improvements in treatment are more cost-effective than improvements in testing alone. These results held when DALYs averted or lives saved were used as health outcomes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that the cost-effectiveness of Scenarios 1–6 are subject sensitive to parameter uncertainty, though Scenarios 4 and 5 are the optimal choice when DALYs averted or QALYs gained were used as the measure of health outcomes across all cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Conclusions

Improving testing rates alone among children at risk for malaria has the potential to improve health but may not be the most efficient use of limited resources. Instead, small or large improvements in treatment, whether alone or in conjunction with improvements in testing, are the most cost-effective strategies for children under five in Mozambique.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04354-9.

Estimating health system opportunity costs: the role of non-linearities and inefficiency

Background

Empirical estimates of health system opportunity costs have been suggested as a basis for the cost-effectiveness threshold to use in Health Technology Assessment. Econometric methods have been used to estimate these in several countries based on data on spending and mortality. This study examines empirical evidence on four issues: non-linearity of the relationship between spending and mortality; the inclusion of outcomes other than mortality; variation in the efficiency with which expenditures generate health outcomes; and the relationship among efficiency, mortality rates and outcome elasticities.

Methods

Quantile Regression is used to examine non-linearities in the relationship between mortality and health expenditures along the mortality distribution. Data Envelopment Analysis extends the approach, using multiple measures of health outcomes to measure efficiency. These are applied to health expenditure data from 151 geographical units (Primary Care Trusts) of the National Health Service in England, across eight different clinical areas (Programme Budget Categories), for 3 fiscal years from 2010/11 to 2012/13.

Results

The results suggest differences in efficiency levels across geographical units and clinical areas as to how health resources generate outcomes, which indicates the capacity to adjust to a decrease in health expenditure without affecting health outcomes. Moreover, efficient units have lower absolute levels of mortality elasticity to health expenditure than inefficient ones.

Conclusions

The policy of adopting thresholds based on estimates of a single system-wide cost-effectiveness threshold assumes a relationship between expenditure and health outcomes that generates an opportunity cost estimate which applies to the whole system. Our evidence of variations in that relationship and therefore in opportunity costs suggests that adopting a single threshold may exacerbate the efficiency and equity concerns that such thresholds are designed to counter. In most health care systems, many decisions about provision are not made centrally. Our analytical approach to understanding variability in opportunity cost can help policy makers target efficiency improvements and set realistic targets for local and clinical area health improvements from increased expenditure.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00391-y.

Cost-Effectiveness of Polygenic Risk Scores to Guide Statin Therapy for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are leading causes of death despite effective therapies and result in unnecessary morbidity and mortality throughout the world. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of polygenic risk scores (PRS) to guide statin therapy for Canadians with intermediate CVD risk and model its economic outlook.

METHODS

This cost-utility analysis was conducted using UK Biobank prospective cohort study participants, with recruitment from 2006 to 2010, and at least 10 years of follow-up. We included nonrelated white British-descent participants (n=96 116) at intermediate CVD risk with no prior lipid lowering medication or statin-indicated conditions. A coronary artery disease PRS was used to inform decision to use statins. The effects of statin therapy with and without PRS, as well as CVD events were modelled to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from a Canadian public health care perspective. We discounted future costs and quality-adjusted life-years by 1.5% annually.

RESULTS

The optimal economic strategy was when intermediate risk individuals with a PRS in the top 70% are eligible for statins while the lowest 1% are excluded. Base-case analysis at a genotyping cost of $70 produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $172 906 (143 685 USD) per quality-adjusted life-year. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the intervention has approximately a 50% probability of being cost-effective at $179 100 (148 749 USD) per quality-adjusted life-year. At a $0 genotyping cost, representing individuals with existing genotyping information, PRS-guided strategies dominated standard care when 12% of the lowest PRS individuals were withheld from statins. With improved PRS predictive performance and lower genotyping costs, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio demonstrates possible cost-effectiveness under thresholds of $150 000 and possibly $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that using PRS alongside existing guidelines might be cost-effective for CVD. Stronger predictiveness combined with decreased cost of PRS could further improve cost-effectiveness, providing an economic basis for its inclusion into clinical care.

Supply-Side Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: Questions for Evidence-Based Policy

There is growing interest in cost-effectiveness thresholds as a tool to inform resource allocation decisions in health care. Studies from several countries have sought to estimate health system opportunity costs, which supply-side cost-effectiveness thresholds are intended to represent. In this paper, we consider the role of empirical estimates of supply-side thresholds in policy-making. Recent studies estimate the cost per unit of health based on average displacement or outcome elasticity. We distinguish the types of point estimates reported in empirical work, including marginal productivity, average displacement, and outcome elasticity. Using this classification, we summarise the limitations of current approaches to threshold estimation in terms of theory, methods, and data. We highlight the questions that arise from alternative interpretations of thresholds and provide recommendations to policymakers seeking to use a supply-side threshold where the evidence base is emerging or incomplete. We recommend that: (1) policymakers must clearly define the scope of the application of a threshold, and the theoretical basis for empirical estimates should be consistent with that scope; (2) a process for the assessment of new evidence and for determining changes in the threshold to be applied in policy-making should be created; (3) decision-making processes should retain flexibility in the application of a threshold; and (4) policymakers should provide support for decision-makers relating to the use of thresholds and the implementation of decisions stemming from their application.

Economic evaluation of psychological treatments for common mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Common mental disorders (CMDs) constitute a major public health and economic burden on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Systematic reviews of economic evaluations of psychological treatments for CMDs are limited. This systematic review examines methods, reports findings and appraises the quality of economic evaluations of psychological treatments for CMDs in LMICs. We searched a range of bibliographic databases (including PubMed, EconLit, APA-PsycINFO and Cochrane library) and the African Journals Online (AJoL) and Google Scholar platforms. We used a pre-populated template to extract data and the Drummond & Jefferson checklist for quality appraisal. We present results as a narrative synthesis. The review included 26 studies, mostly from Asia (12) and Africa (9). The majority were cost-effectiveness analyses (12), some were cost-utility analyses (5), with one cost-benefit analysis or combinations of economic evaluations (8). Most interventions were considered either cost-effective or potentially cost-effective (22), with 3 interventions being not cost-effective. Limitations were noted regarding appropriateness of conclusions drawn on cost-effectiveness, the use of cost-effectiveness thresholds and application of 'societal' incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to reflect value for money (VfM) of treatments. Non-specialist health workers (NSHWs) delivered most of the treatments (16) for low-cost delivery at scale, and costs should reflect the true opportunity cost of NSHWs' time to support the development of a sustainable cadre of health care providers. There is a 4-fold increase in economic evaluations of CMD psychological treatments in the last decade over the previous one. Yet, findings from this review highlight the need for better application of economic evaluation methodology to support resource allocation towards the World Health Organization recommended first-line treatments of CMDs. We suggest impact inventories to capture societal economic gains and propose a VfM assessment framework to guide researchers in evaluating cost-effectiveness.

Cost and effectiveness of one session treatment (OST) for children and young people with specific phobias compared to multi-session cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT): results from a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In the UK, around 93,000 (0.8%) children and young people (CYP) are experiencing specific phobias that have a substantial impact on daily life. The current gold-standard treatment-multi-session cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) - is effective at reducing specific phobia severity; however, CBT is time consuming, requires specialist CBT therapists, and is often at great cost and limited availability. A briefer variant of CBT called one session treatment (OST) has been found to offer similar clinical effectiveness for specific phobia as multi-session CBT. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of OST compared to multi-session CBT for CYP with specific phobias through the Alleviating Specific Phobias Experienced by Children Trial (ASPECT), a two-arm, pragmatic, multi-centre, non-inferiority randomised controlled trial.

METHODS

CYP aged seven to 16 years with specific phobias were recruited nationally via Health and Social Care pathways, remotely randomised to the intervention group (OST) or the control group (CBT-based therapies) and analysed (n = 267). Resource use based on NHS and personal social services perspective and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) measured by EQ-5D-Y were collected at baseline and at six-month follow-up. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated, and non-parametric bootstrapping was conducted to capture the uncertainty around the ICER estimates. The results were presented on a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC). A set of sensitivity analyses (including taking a societal perspective) were conducted to assess the robustness of the primary findings.

RESULTS

After adjustment and bootstrapping, on average CYP in the OST group incurred less costs (incremental cost was -£302.96 (95% CI -£598.86 to -£28.61)) and maintained similar improvement in QALYs (QALYs gained 0.002 (95% CI - 0.004 to 0.008)). The CEAC shows that the probability of OST being cost-effective was over 95% across all the WTP thresholds. Results of a set of sensitivity analyses were consistent with the primary outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Compared to CBT, OST produced a reduction in costs and maintained similar improvement in QALYs. Results from both primary and sensitivity analyses suggested that OST was highly likely to be cost saving.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN19883421 (30/11/2016).

The Net Benefit of Personalized Medicine: A Systematic Literature Review and Regression Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Amidst conflicting expectations about the benefits of personalized medicine (PM) and the potentially high implementation costs, we reviewed the available evidence on the cost-effectiveness of PM relative to non-PM.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of economic evaluations of PM and extracted data, including incremental quality-adjusted life-years (ΔQALYs) and incremental costs (Δcosts). ΔQALYs and Δcosts were combined with estimates of national cost-effectiveness thresholds to calculate incremental net monetary benefit (ΔNMB). Regression analyses were performed with these variables as dependent variables and PM intervention characteristics as independent variables. Random intercepts were used to cluster studies according to country.

RESULTS

Of 4774 studies reviewed, 128 were selected, providing cost-effectiveness data for 279 PM interventions. Most studies were set in the United States (48%) and the United Kingdom (16%) and adopted a healthcare perspective (82%). Cancer treatments (60%) and pharmaceutical interventions (72%) occurred frequently. Prognostic tests (19%) and tests to identify (non)responders (37%) were least and most common, respectively. Industry sponsorship occurred in 32%. Median ΔQALYs, Δcosts, and ΔNMB per individual were 0.03, Int$575, and Int$18, respectively. We found large heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness. Regression analysis showed that gene therapies were associated with higher ΔQALYs than other interventions. PM interventions for neoplasms brought higher ΔNMB than PM interventions for other conditions. Nonetheless, average ΔNMB in the 'neoplasm' group was found to be negative.

CONCLUSIONS

PM brings improvements in health but often at a high cost, resulting in 0 to negative ΔNMB on average. Pricing policies may be needed to reduce the costs of interventions with negative ΔNMB.

Supporting a review of the benefits package of the National Health Insurance Scheme in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Although Ghana is lauded for its National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), concerns exist about the scheme's functioning and sustainability. An often-cited issue-contributing to the scheme's decreasing membership, long-standing financial deficit, and frequent out-of-pocket payments among members-is the large benefits package (BP). While, on paper, the BP covers over 95% of the conditions occurring in Ghana, its design was not informed by any budget analysis, nor any systematic prioritization of interventions. This paper aims to provide evidence-based input into ongoing discussions regarding a review of the NHIS benefits package.

METHODS

An existing analytic framework is used to calculate net health benefit (NHB) for a range of interventions in order to assess their cost-effectiveness and enable the prioritization of 'best buys'. The framework is expanded upon by incorporating concerns for financial protection, and practical feasibility, as well as the political economy challenges of disinvesting in currently funded activities. Five different options for the benefits package, each based on policy discourse in Ghana's health sector, are presented and evaluated.

RESULTS

Implementing all interventions for which data was available to 100% of the population in need was estimated to cost GH₵4323 million (US$994 million), while the available NHIS budget was only GH₵970 million (US$223 million). Options for the benefits package that focussed on cost-effectiveness and primary care provision achieved the best health outcomes, while options reflecting the status quo and allowing for co-payments included a higher number of healthcare interventions. Apart from the package option focussing on primary care, all packages were faced with physician shortages.

CONCLUSIONS

Current funding to the NHIS is insufficient to provide the historical benefits package, which promises to cover over 95% of disease conditions occurring in Ghana, to the total population. Shifting the NHIS focus from intervention coverage to population coverage is likely to lead to better health outcomes. A primary care package may be most feasible in the short-term, though additional physicians should be trained to provide higher-level care that is highly cost-effective, such as emergency neonatal care.

Right of reply

-

Value assessment frameworks: who is valuing the care in healthcare?

Many healthcare agencies are producing evidence-based guidance and policy that may determine the availability of particular healthcare products and procedures, effectively rationing aspects of healthcare. They claim legitimacy for their decisions through reference to evidence-based scientific method and the implementation of just decision-making procedures, often citing the criteria of 'accountability for reasonableness'; publicity, relevance, challenge and revision, and regulation. Central to most decision methods are estimates of gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), a measure that combines the length and quality of survival. However, all agree that the QALY alone is not a sufficient measure of all relevant aspects of potential healthcare benefits, and a number of value assessment frameworks have been suggested. I argue that the practical implementation of these procedures has the potential to lead to a distorted assessment of value. Undue weight may be ascribed to certain attributes, particularly those that favour commercial or political interests, while other attributes that are highly valued by society, particularly those related to care processes, may be omitted or undervalued. This may be compounded by a lack of transparency to relevant stakeholders, resulting in an inability for them to participate in, or challenge, the decisions. The makes it likely that costly new technologies, for which inflated prices can be justified by the current value frameworks, are displacing aspects of healthcare that are highly valued by society.

Are Estimates of the Health Opportunity Cost Being Used to Draw Conclusions in Published Cost-Effectiveness Analyses? A Scoping Review in Four Countries

BACKGROUND

When healthcare budgets are exogenous, cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) used to inform funding decisions should represent the health opportunity cost (HOC) of such funding decisions, but HOC-based CET estimates have not been available until recently. In recent years, empirical HOC-based CETs for multiple countries have been published, but the use of these CETs in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) literature has not been investigated. Analysis of the use of HOC-based CETs by researchers undertaking CEAs in countries with different decision-making contexts will provide valuable insights to further understand barriers and facilitators to the acceptance and use of HOC-based CETs.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify the CET values used to interpret the results of CEAs published in the scientific literature before and after the publication of jurisdiction-specific empirical HOC-based CETs in four countries.

METHODS

We undertook a scoping review of CEAs published in Spain, Australia, the Netherlands and South Africa between 2016 (2014 in Spain) and 2020. CETs used before and after publication of HOC estimates were recorded. We conducted logit regressions exploring factors explaining the use of HOC values in identified studies and linear models exploring the association of the reported CET value with study characteristics and results.

RESULTS

1171 studies were included in this review (870 CEAs and 301 study protocols). HOC values were cited in 28% of CEAs in Spain and in 11% of studies conducted in Australia, but they were not referred to in CEAs undertaken in the Netherlands and South Africa. Regression analyses on Spanish and Australian studies indicate that more recent studies, studies without a conflict of interest and studies estimating an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below the HOC value were more likely to use the HOC as a threshold reference. In addition, we found a small but significant impact indicating that for every dollar increase in the estimated ICER, the reported CET increased by US$0.015. Based on the findings of our review, we discuss the potential factors that might explain the lack of adoption of HOC-based CETs in the empirical CEA literature.

CONCLUSIONS

The adoption of HOC-based CETs by identified published CEAs has been uneven across the four analysed countries, most likely due to underlying differences in their decision-making processes. Our results also reinforce a previous finding indicating that CETs might be endogenously selected to fit authors' conclusions.

Economic studies in medical research: 'Importance, targets, outcome evaluation'

Economic studies in healthcare are used to measure the cost and effectiveness of an intervention and are valuable in determining how healthcare resources can be distributed to achieve the greatest overall gain. Most economic studies in healthcare are cost-benefit analyses, cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), or cost-utility analyses (CUAs). CEAs and CUAs compare alternative interventions based on cost and effectiveness but are influenced by different methodologies and assumptions employed by researchers. The perspective from which an economic study is evaluated (the patient, the provider, the payor, or the society) should be carefully considered. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) describes the difference between two interventions in cost and health outcomes and can be expressed in dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). A threshold ICER <$50,000/QALY is often used to determine whether an intervention is cost-effective, in conjunction with patient factors, healthcare system factors, and opportunity cost associated with the intervention. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluating Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement provides guidelines for reporting healthcare economic studies. Key elements to be reported include the study design, target population and subgroups, time horizon, health outcomes, perspectives, comparison group, and sensitivity analyses performed. Economic studies are particularly important in orthopedics given the prevalence of musculoskeletal disease, high upfront costs, and potential quality of life improvements associated with orthopedic surgical procedures. An understanding of economic evaluations in healthcare is important to critically review the available literature.

Estimating the range of incremental cost-effectiveness thresholds for healthcare based on willingness to pay and GDP per capita: A systematic review

Background

Decision-making in healthcare policy involves assessing both costs and benefits. In determining the cost-effectiveness (CE) threshold, willingness to pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), GDP per capita, and other factors are important. However, the relationship between WTP/QALY or GDP per capita and the CE threshold is unclear. It is important to clarify the relationship between WTP/QALY and GDP to provide a clear basis for setting the CE threshold.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to compare WTP/QALY and GDP per capita, and to develop a new CE threshold range based on WTP using GDP per capita. The relationship between WTP/QALY and healthy life expectancy (HALE) was also investigated.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science from 1980/01/01 to 2020/12/31 using the following selection criteria (latest search: Dec 2021):1, studies that estimated WTP/QALY; 2, the general population was surveyed; 3, the article was in English. From the collected articles, we obtained average values of WTP/QALY for various countries and compared WTP/QALY with GDP per capita. The correlation between WTP/QALY and HALE was also examined.

Results

We identified 20 papers from 17 countries. Comparison of mean WTP/QALY values with GDP per capita showed that most WTP/QALY values were in the range of 0.5–1.5 times GDP per capita, though the median values were less than 0.5 times. Comparison of WTP/QALY with HALE showed a statistically significant positive correlation when Taiwan was excluded as an outlier.

Conclusions

Our results suggest a CE threshold range of 0.5–1.5 times GDP per capita is appropriate but lower than the WHO-recommended range of 1–3 times. The correlation between WTP/QALY and HALE suggests that investment in healthcare is reflected in an increased healthy life expectancy. Since WTP is based on consumer preferences, this range could be used to set a generally acceptable criterion.

The Relevance of Including Future Healthcare Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Threshold Calculations for the UK NHS

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The supply-side threshold for the UK National Health Service has been empirically estimated as the marginal returns to healthcare spending on health outcomes. These estimates implicitly exclude future healthcare costs, which is inconsistent with the objective of making the most efficient use of healthcare resources. This paper illustrates how empirical estimates of the threshold within healthcare can be adjusted to account for future healthcare costs.

METHODS

Using cause-deleted life tables and previous work on future costs in England and Wales, we illustrate how such estimates can be adjusted.

RESULTS

While the effect of including future healthcare costs can have substantial effects on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of specific life-extending interventions, we find that including future costs has relatively little impact (an increase of £743 per quality-adjusted life-year) on the threshold estimate.

CONCLUSIONS

For some life-extending interventions the impact of including future costs on whether an intervention is deemed cost effective may be considerable.

Evaluating the cost-utility of a direct transfer to angiosuite protocol within 6 h of symptom onset in suspected large vessel occlusion patients

INTRODUCTION

A direct transfer to angiosuite (DTAS) protocol has shown to be effective and safe by shortening in-hospital workflows and encouraging long-term outcome benefits. To implement DTAS at a new facility, a large organizational effort is necessary. We performed a cost-utility analysis and budget impact analysis (BIA) of the operation of a new angiosuite, primarily dedicated to stroke patients, that allows facilities to approximate the cost implications of utilizing a DTAS pathway.

METHODS

Sixty-one patients who underwent endovascular treatment (EVT) following DTAS were matched for baseline variables to 117 patients who underwent a conventional imaging protocol at a hospital in Catalonia, Spain. An economic model, based on actual data from these patients, was developed to assess the short- and long-term clinical and economic implications of DTAS. In the BIA, the DTAS scenario was gradually implemented for 20% of patients each year until reaching a plateau at 80% of patients in the DTAS pathway. Initial investment and additional organizational costs, €4 million, were taken into consideration to compare the budget impact of the DTAS scenario with no organizational changes over five years.

RESULTS

DTAS was associated with better patient functional independence rates (mRS 0-2: 50.9% vs. 41.0%) and a quality-adjusted life-years gain of 0.82 per patient. Despite the additional initial investment, DTAS development was associated with an estimated 10.2% reduction (€14.7 million) of the total costs (€144.5 million). Cost savings were mainly due to long-term associated costs related to patient disability (€13.2 million).

LIMITATIONS

The study relies on data obtained from a single-center, and therefore it may be difficult to generalize the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Our economic model predicts that the implementation of a DTAS program is cost-effective compared with no organizational changes. Our model also predicts better clinical outcomes for patients in terms of functional independence and quality-adjusted life years.

Avoiding Opportunity Cost Neglect in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Health Technology Assessment

Despite being a fundamental tenet of economic analysis there is a lack of clarity regarding the relevance of opportunity costs to cost-effectiveness analysis for health technology assessment. We argue that this is due, in part, to the importance of the decision context in understanding the nature of opportunity costs. Taking the example of the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on behalf of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales, we explore the implications of existing discrepancies between policy thresholds and emerging empirical evidence of health opportunity costs. In particular, we consider analysts communicating the results of cost-effectiveness analysis, and recommend that analysts provide analysis according to both the policy threshold and the latest empirical evidence until the discrepancies are better understood or resolved. A number of conceptually related, but distinct, issues are discussed and clarified.

Estimating Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds Under a Managed Healthcare System: Experiences from Colombia

Like most of the world, low- and middle-income countries have faced a growing demand for new health technologies and higher budget constraints. It is necessary to have technical instruments to make decisions based on real-world evidence that allows maximization of the population's health with a limited budget. We estimated the supply-based cost-effectiveness elasticity, which was then used to determine the cost-effectiveness threshold for the healthcare system of Colombia, a middle-income country where multiple insurers, paid under capitation rules, manage the compulsory contributions of the citizens and government subsidies. Using administrative data, we explored the variation of health expenditures and outcomes at the insurer, geographical region, diagnosis group, and year levels. To deal with endogeneity in a two-way fixed-effects model, we instrumented health expenditures using characteristics of the health system such as drug-price regulation. We estimated the threshold to be US$ 4487.5 per YLL avoided (14.7 million COP at 2019 prices) and US$ 5180.8 per QALY gained (17 million COP at 2019 prices), around one times the GDP per capita. To our knowledge, this is the first estimation of the cost-effectiveness threshold elasticity supply-based in a middle-income country with a managed care health system.

How Effective is Marginal Healthcare Expenditure? New Evidence from England for 2003/04 to 2012/13

BACKGROUND

The endogenous nature of healthcare expenditure means that instruments are often used when estimating the relationship between expenditure and mortality. Previous English studies of this relationship have largely relied on statistical tests to justify their instruments. A recent paper proposed that exogenous components of the resource allocation formula, used to distribute the national healthcare budget to local health authorities, be used as instruments.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the relationship between healthcare expenditure and mortality by disease area for England from 2003/4 to 2012/13 using exogenous elements from the resource allocation formula as instruments for expenditure. To use these disease-specific estimates to calculate the marginal cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for English NHS expenditure. To compare these estimates with those that relied on statistical tests to justify their instruments.

METHODS

The two-stage least squares estimator is used to determine the annual relationship between mortality and healthcare expenditure by disease area across 151 local authorities. These disease-specific outcome elasticities are combined with information about survival and morbidity disease burden in different disease areas to calculate the marginal cost per QALY for English National Health Service (NHS) expenditure.

RESULTS

The results suggest an annual marginal cost per QALY of between £5000 and £10,000. This is similar to that reported previously by studies that used statistical tests to justify their instruments.

CONCLUSION

These cost per QALY estimates are much lower than the threshold currently used by the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) (£20,000 to £30,000) to assess whether a new pharmaceutical product should be funded by the NHS. Our estimates suggest that guidance issued by NICE is likely to do more harm than good, reducing health outcomes overall for the NHS. There may be legitimate reasons why such harms are deemed appropriate, but it is only through the type of empirical analysis in this paper that the reasons for these 'harms' are likely to be articulated and explicitly justified.

How Much Is a Human Life Worth? A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review studies eliciting monetary value of a statistical life (VSL) estimates within, and across, different sectors and other contexts; compare the reported estimates; and critically review the elicitation methods used.

METHODS

In June 2019, we searched the following databases to identify methodological and empirical studies: Cochrane Library, Compendex, Embase, Environment Complete, Informit, ProQuest, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines for reporting and a modified Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist to assess the quality of included studies.

RESULTS

We identified 1455 studies, of which we included 120 in the systematic review. A stated-preference approach was used in 76 articles, with 51%, 41%, and 8% being contingent valuation studies, discrete-choice experiments, or both, respectively. A revealed-preference approach was used in 43 articles, of which 74% were based on compensating-wage differentials. The human capital approach was used in only 1 article. We assessed most publications (87%) as being of high quality. Estimates for VSL varied substantially by context (sector, developed/developing country, socio-economic status, etc), with the median of midpoint purchasing power parity-adjusted estimates of 2019 US$5.7 million ($6.8 million, $8.7 million, and $5.3 million for health, labor market, and transportation safety sectors, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The large variation observed in published VSLs depends mainly on the context rather than the method used. We found higher median values for labor markets and developed countries. It is important that health economists and policymakers use context-specific VSL estimates. Methodological innovation and standardization are needed to maximize comparability of VSL estimates within, and across, sectors and methods.

A Systematic Review of Demand-Side Methods of Estimating the Societal Monetary Value of Health Gain

OBJECTIVES

Although many reviews of the literature on cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) exist, the availability of new studies and the absence of a fully comprehensive analysis warrant a new review. This study systematically reviews demand-side methods for estimating the societal monetary value of health gain.

METHODS

Several electronic databases were searched from inception to October 2019. To be included, a study had to be an original article in any language, with a clearly described method for estimating the societal monetary values of health gain and with all estimated values reported. Estimates were converted to US dollars ($), using purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (2019).

RESULTS

We included 53 studies; 45 used direct approach and 8 used indirect approach. Median estimates from the direct approach were PPP$ 24 942 (range 554-1 301 912) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), which were typically 0.53 (range 0.02-24.08) GDP per capita. Median estimates using the indirect approach were PPP$ 310 051 (range 36 402-7 574 870) per QALY, which accounted for 7.87 (range 0.68-116.95) GDP per capita.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review found that the societal values of health gain or CETs were less than GDP per capita. The great variety in methods and estimates suggests that a more standardized and internationally agreed methodology for estimating CET is warranted. Multiple CETs may have a role when QALYs are not equally valued from a societal perspective (eg, QALYs accruing to people near death compared with equivalent QALYs to others).

Comparing the monetary value of a quality-adjusted life year from the payment card and the open-ended format

BACKGROUND

The payment card (PC) format and the open-ended (OE) format are common methods in eliciting willingness-to-pay (WTP) of one additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The aim of this research is to compare these two formats in eliciting the monetary value of a QALY.

METHODS

A contingent valuation survey was carried out using a pre-designed questionnaire with various hypothetical scenarios. The difference between the PC and the OE formats was evaluated by a two-sample equality test. Furthermore, generalized linear models were carried out to control observed heterogeneity and to test theoretical validity.

RESULTS

In total, 461 individuals were involved, among whom 235 (51%) answered the PC question, while 226 (49%) answered the OE question. Excluding zero response, the mean WTP values of these two formats for different scenarios varied dramatically, which was from 13,278 to 280,177 RMB for the PC, 18,119 to 620,913 RMB for the OE. The OE format tended to elicit lower values for less serious condition and higher values for more serious condition. However, equality test of mean and median demonstrated insignificant difference of these two formats for all scenarios. For both OE and PC format, most variables were found to have significant effect on the value of WTP/QALY. Moreover, joint estimation indicated a statistically significant positive effect on the OE results. Further analysis demonstrated that the imbalanced zero response distribution caused the main difference of these two formats.

CONCLUSIONS

This research indicated insignificantly different WTP/QALY estimates of the PC format and OE format with the grouped data whereas significantly higher estimates of the OE format from the pooled data. These two formats were found to be valid. More research about the difference and the validity of various WTP eliciting methods would be recommended for a robust estimation of WTP/QALY.

Economic Evaluation of Mental Health Effects of Flooding Using Bayesian Networks

The appraisal of appropriate levels of investment for devising flooding mitigation and to support recovery interventions is a complex and challenging task. Evaluation must account for social, political, environmental and other conditions, such as flood state expectations and local priorities. The evaluation method should be able to quickly identify evolving investment needs as the incidence and magnitude of flood events continue to grow. Quantification is essential and must consider multiple direct and indirect effects on flood related outcomes. The method proposed is this study is a Bayesian network, which may be used ex-post for evaluation, but also ex-ante for future assessment, and near real-time for the reallocation of investment into interventions. The particular case we study is the effect of flood interventions upon mental health, which is a gap in current investment analyses. Natural events such as floods expose people to negative mental health disorders including anxiety, distress and post-traumatic stress disorder. Such outcomes can be mitigated or exacerbated not only by state funded interventions, but by individual and community skills and experience. Success is also dampened when vulnerable and previously exposed victims are affected. Current measures evaluate solely the effectiveness of interventions to reduce physical damage to people and assets. This paper contributes a design for a Bayesian network that exposes causal pathways and conditional probabilities between interventions and mental health outcomes as well as providing a tool that can readily indicate the level of investment needed in alternative interventions based on desired mental health outcomes.