Preoperative prediction of mortality within 1 year after elective thoracic endovascular aortic aneurysm repair

Preoperative risk factors for 1-year mortality in patients undergoing fenestrated endovascular aortic aneurysm repair in the US Aortic Research Consortium

BACKGROUND

Early survival (1-year) after elective repair of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) or thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAA) can be used as an indicator of successful repair and provides a reasonable countermeasure to the annual rupture risk based on diameter. We aimed to identify preoperative factors associated with 1-year mortality after fenestrated or branched endovascular aortic repair (F/BEVAR) and develop a predictive model for 1-year mortality based on patient-specific risk profiles.

METHODS

The US-Aortic Research Consortium database was queried for all patients undergoing elective F/BEVAR for complex AAA (cAAA) or TAAA from 2005 to 2022. The primary outcome was 1-year survival based on preoperative risk profile. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine preoperative variables associated with 1-year mortality overall and by extent of aortic pathology. Logistic regression was performed to build a predictive model for 1-year mortality based on number of risk factors present.

RESULTS

A total of 2099 patients met the inclusion criteria for this study (cAAA: n = 709 [34.3%]; type 1-3 TAAA: n = 777 [37.6%]; type 4-5 TAAA: n = 580 [28.1%]). Multivariable Cox regression identified the following significant risk factors associated with 1-year mortality: current smoker, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure (CHF), aortic diameter >7 cm, age >75 years, extent 1-3, creatinine >1.7 mg/dL, and hematocrit <36%. When stratified by extent of aortic involvement, multivariable Cox regression revealed risk factors for 1-year mortality in cAAA (CHF maximum aortic diameter >7 cm, hematocrit <36 mg/dL, and current smoking status), type 1-3 TAAA (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CHF, and age >75 years), and type 4-5 TAAA (age >75 years, creatinine >1.7 mg/dL, and hematocrit <36 mg/dL). Logistic regression was then used to develop a predictive model for 1-year mortality based on patient risk profile. Appraisal of the model revealed an area under the curve of 0.64 (P < .001), and an observed to expected ratio of 0.85.

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes multiple risk factors associated with an increase in 1-year mortality after F/BEVAR. Given that elective repair of cAAA or TAAA is offered to some patients in whom future rupture risk outweighs operative risk, these findings suggest that highly comorbid patients with smaller aneurysms may not benefit from repair. Descriptive and predictive models for 1-year mortality based on patient risk profiles can serve as an adjunct in clinical decision-making when considering elective F/BEVAR.

Comparative Retrospective Cohort Study of Carotid-Subclavian Bypass versus In Situ Fenestration for Left Subclavian Artery Revascularization during Zone 2 Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair: A Single-Center Experience

Background: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has become the first-line therapy for descending aortic disease. Recent studies have demonstrated that preventive revascularization of the left subclavian artery (LSA) in zone 2 TEVAR cases reduces the risk of neurological complications. However, there is no uniform consensus on the choice of revascularization techniques. Although carotid-subclavian bypass is considered the gold standard method, in situ fenestration techniques have also shown encouraging results. This study aims to compare the carotid-LSA bypass with in situ fenestration (ISF) for LSA revascularization and to discuss our treatment approach. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of all patients undergoing zone 2 TEVAR with in situ fenestration (ISF) or carotid-subclavian artery bypasses for LSA revascularization at our institution between February 2011 and February 2024. Preoperative patient characteristics and primary outcomes, such as operative mortality, transient ischemic attack, stroke, and spinal cord ischemia, were analyzed between the groups. Results: During the 13-year study period, 185 patients underwent TEVAR procedures. Of these, 51 patients had LSA revascularization with zone 2 TEVAR; 32 patients underwent carotid-subclavian artery bypasses, and 19 underwent in situ fenestration. The technical success rate was 100%. Statistically, there was no significant difference between the groups in terms of primary outcomes such as stroke, transient ischemic attack, spinal cord ischemia, and death (p > 0.05). Conclusions: In situ fenestration (ISF) may be an effective and feasible method for LSA revascularization. With precise patient selection and in experienced hands, ISF appears to be associated with similar perioperative outcomes and mortality rates to the carotid-subclavian bypass.

Non-invasive estimation of the parameters of a three-element windkessel model of aortic arch arteries in patients undergoing thoracic endovascular aortic repair

Background: Image-based computational hemodynamic modeling and simulations are important for personalized diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases. However, the required patient-specific boundary conditions are often not available and need to be estimated. Methods: We propose a pipeline for estimating the parameters of the popular three-element Windkessel (WK3) models (a proximal resistor in series with a parallel combination of a distal resistor and a capacitor) of the aortic arch arteries in patients receiving thoracic endovascular aortic repair of aneurysms. Pre-operative and post-operative 1-week duplex ultrasound scans were performed to obtain blood flow rates, and intra-operative pressure measurements were also performed invasively using a pressure transducer pre- and post-stent graft deployment in arch arteries. The patient-specific WK3 model parameters were derived from the flow rate and pressure waveforms using an optimization algorithm reducing the error between simulated and measured pressure data. The resistors were normalized by total resistance, and the capacitor was normalized by total resistance and heart rate. The normalized WK3 parameters can be combined with readily available vessel diameter, brachial blood pressure, and heart rate data to estimate WK3 parameters of other patients non-invasively. Results: Ten patients were studied. The medians (interquartile range) of the normalized proximal resistor, distal resistor, and capacitor parameters are 0.10 (0.07-0.15), 0.90 (0.84-0.93), and 0.46 (0.33-0.58), respectively, for common carotid artery; 0.03 (0.02-0.04), 0.97 (0.96-0.98), and 1.91 (1.63-2.26) for subclavian artery; 0.18 (0.08-0.41), 0.82 (0.59-0.92), and 0.47 (0.32-0.85) for vertebral artery. The estimated pressure showed fairly high tolerance to patient-specific inlet flow rate waveforms using the WK3 parameters estimated from the medians of the normalized parameters. Conclusion: When patient-specific outflow boundary conditions are not available, our proposed pipeline can be used to estimate the WK3 parameters of arch arteries.

Prediction of thirty-day mortality risk after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for intact descending thoracic aortic aneurysms: Derivation of risk calculator in the Vascular Quality Initiative

OBJECTIVE

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (DTAA) is associated with high perioperative survival, although mortality is a possible outcome. However, no risk score has been developed to predict mortality after TEVAR for intact DTAA to aid in risk discussion and preoperative patient selection. Our objective was to use a multi-institutional database to develop a 30-day mortality risk calculator for TEVAR after DTAA repair.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative database was queried for patients treated with TEVAR for intact DTAA between August 2014 and August 2020. Univariable and multivariable analyses aided in developing a 30-day mortality risk score. Internal validation was done with K-fold cross-validation and calibration curve analysis.

RESULTS

Of 2141 patients included in the analysis, 90 (4.2%) died within 30 days after the procedure. Clinically relevant variables identified to be independently associated with 30-day mortality and therefore used to derive the predictive model included age 75 years or greater (odds ratio [OR], 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-3.44; P < .001), coronary artery disease (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.03-2.47; P = .036), American Society of Anesthesiologists class IV/V (OR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.39-4.10; P = .002), urgent vs elective procedure (OR, 3.47; 95% CI, 1.90-6.33; P < .001), emergent vs elective procedure (OR, 5.27; 95% CI, 2.36-11.75; P < .001), prior carotid revascularization (OR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.64-6.39; P = .001), and proximal landing zone <3 (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.65-3.81; P < .001). The model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75. Internal validation demonstrated a bias-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79) and a calibration slope of 1.00 with a corresponding intercept of 0.00.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a novel clinically relevant risk prediction model to estimate 30-day mortality risk after TEVAR for DTAA. The TEVAR Mortality Risk Calculator provides useful prognostic information to guide patient selection and facilitate preoperative discussions and shared decision making. An easily accessible online version of the TEVAR Mortality Risk Score is available to facilitate ease of use.

Functional performance status and risk of cardiovascular events and mortality following endovascular repair of thoracic and abdominal aortic pathology

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the association of preoperative functional performance status based on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scoring with the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, vascular events, and mortality in patients undergoing EVAR and TEVAR.

METHODS

Retrospective review of the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative, a large, multi-center, registry database was performed. All individuals undergoing EVAR (n = 18,730) and TEVAR (n = 6595) for non-ruptured aortic pathologies between 2014 and 2018 were eligible for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association of pre-procedure ECOG functional performance status on risk of in-hospital adverse cardiovascular events, vascular events, and mortality.

RESULTS

The number of operations complicated by adverse cardiovascular and vascular events was 480 (2.6%) and 190 (1.0%) for EVAR and 733 (11.1%) and 219 (3.3%) for TEVAR, respectively. There were 118 (0.6%) and 240 (3.6%) in-hospital deaths following EVAR and TEVAR, respectively. Patients with ECOG grades 3 or 4 undergoing EVAR were at increased risk of cardiovascular events (OR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.09, 2.41) and one-year mortality (HR = 2.62; 95% CI = 1.92, 3.57) compared to those with ECOG grade 0. Patients undergoing TEVAR with ECOG grade 3 or 4 were at increased risk for both inpatient death (OR = 2.77; 95% CI = 1.56, 4.9) and one-year mortality (HR = 3.27, 95% CI = 2.06, 5.21). ECOG status was not associated with an increased risk of adverse vascular events following either EVAR or TEVAR.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor preoperative functional status as assessed by ECOG score is associated with an increased risk of adverse postoperative cardiovascular events following EVAR and a higher mortality risk following both EVAR and TEVAR. Functional status assessment may be useful for risk stratification and determining procedural candidacy prior to EVAR and TEVAR.

Thoracic aortic remodeling with endografting after a decade of thoracic endovascular aortic repair experience

OBJECTIVE

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) results have been studied in short-term time frames. This study aimed to evaluate midterm and long-term outcomes of TEVAR, emphasizing postoperative aortic remodeling and need for reintervention.

METHODS

This is an institutional retrospective review of TEVAR for isolated descending thoracic aortic aneurysms. Data were collected from 2004 to 2018. Primary outcomes studied included aneurysm sac remodeling, freedom from reintervention, and all-cause mortality. Other outcomes studied include endoleak rates, neurologic complication rates, and any overall postoperative complication rates.

RESULTS

During the study period, 219 patients underwent TEVAR for descending thoracic aortic aneurysms. The median effect of TEVAR on sac diameter was a 0.7-cm decrease in size (interquartile range, -1.4 to 0.0 cm). During the study period, 80% (n = 147) of patients experienced aneurysm sac regression or stability. Perioperative neurologic complications occurred in 16% (n = 34) of patients. Significant predictors of sac growth were endoleak (odds ratio [OR], 65; P < .001), preoperative carotid-subclavian bypass (OR, 8; P = .003), and graft oversizing <20% (OR, 15; P = .046). Every 1-mm increase in aortic diameter at the proximal TEVAR landing zone led to an increased odds of endoleak (OR, 2; P = .049). Access complications (OR, 8) and subclavian artery coverage (OR, 6) significantly increased the odds of reintervention, whereas every percentage of graft oversizing protected against reintervention (OR, 0.005). Life-table analysis revealed an overall survival of 78% (71%-83%) at median follow-up. At 3 years, survival was 88% (80%-93%) for those with aneurysm sac stability or regression, whereas it was 70% (49%-84%) for those with aneurysm sac growth (P = .0402). Cox proportional hazards model showed that the only protective factor for mortality was percentage oversizing, with every 1% of oversizing having a hazard ratio (HR) of <.001 (P = .032). This was counterbalanced by the fact that patients with graft oversizing >30% had an increased odds of mortality with HR >10 (P = .049). Other significant factors that increased the odds of mortality included endoleak (HR, 3.6; P = .033), diabetes (HR, 4.1; P = .048), age (every 1-year increase in age; HR, 1.2; P = .002), year of surgery (every year subsequent to 2004; HR, 1.3; P = .012), and peripheral artery disease (HR, 5.2; P = .041).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of patients (80%) experience sac stability or regression after TEVAR, which offers a clear survival advantage. Endoleaks are predictive of sac growth, conferring increased mortality. Rigorous surveillance is necessary to prevent future aortic events through reintervention.

Predictors and Outcomes of Cardiac Events following Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair in Descending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm and Dissection

BACKGROUND

 Cardiac events following thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) have been associated with significant morbidity and mortality. However, predictors of post-TEVAR cardiac events in descending thoracic aortic aneurysm or dissection are poorly understood.

METHODS

 A retrospective analysis of completed TEVAR procedures performed from 2010 to 2016 was conducted using the ACS-NSQIP (American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program) participant user file database. Adult patients (≥18 years) who underwent TEVAR for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm or dissection were identified and 30-day outcomes were examined. An initial univariate analysis was performed to determine associations between all patient variables and cardiac events, defined as myocardial infarction or cardiac arrest that occurred ≤30 days of surgery. Multivariate logistic regression was subsequently performed to identify independent risk factors for cardiac events following TEVAR.

RESULTS

 The study identified 150 out of 2,905 (5.2%) patients who underwent TEVAR for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm or dissection who developed cardiac events. No significant difference in incidence of cardiac events was noted among patients presenting with aortic aneurysm or dissection (p = 0.339). The overall 30-day mortality rate for all patients was 9.1%. Independent preoperative predictors of post-TEVAR cardiac events included emergency procedure (odds ratio [OR] 2.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-4.1, p < 0.01); American Society of Anesthesiologists score >3 (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.1-2.6, p = 0.01), ventilator dependence (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.3-4.2, p < 0.01), renal failure (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.50-4.3, p < 0.01), blood transfusion (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.1-3.2, p = 0.03), and preoperative leukocytosis (OR 2.45, 1.6-3.8, p < 0.01). After TEVAR, unplanned reintubation (OR 5.52, 95% CI 3.5-8.8, p < 0.01), prolonged mechanical ventilation (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.2-3.2, p = 0.011), and postoperative blood transfusion (OR 4.02, 95% CI 2.70-6.0, p < 0.01) were independent predictors of cardiac events. Cardiac events greatly increased mortality (60.7 vs. 5.5%), total length of hospital stay (13.2 ± 14.7 days vs. 8.3 ± 9.3 days), and readmission rates (19.3 vs. 8.2%, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

 Cardiac events following TEVAR are associated with significant mortality. Patients with these risk factors should be appropriately monitored to improve outcomes.

Previous thoracic aortic repair is not associated with adverse outcomes after thoracic endovascular aortic repair

BACKGROUND

As many as 20% of patients who have undergone previous thoracic aortic repair will require reintervention, which could entail thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). A paucity of data is available on mortality and the incidence of spinal cord ischemia (SCI) and other postoperative complications associated with TEVAR after previous aortic repairs exclusive to the thoracic aorta. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of previous thoracic aortic repair on the 30-day mortality and SCI outcomes for patients after TEVAR.

METHODS

The Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative database was queried for all cases of TEVAR from 2012 to 2018. Patients were excluded if they had undergone previous abdominal aortic repair, the TEVAR had extended beyond aortic zone 5, or SCI data were missing. The 3 cohorts compared were TEVAR with previous ascending aortic or aortic arch repair (group 1), TEVAR with previous descending thoracic aortic repair (group 2), and TEVAR without previous repair (group 3). The primary outcomes of interest were 30-day mortality and SCI. The secondary outcomes included stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac complications, respiratory complications, postoperative length of stay, and reintervention. The patient variables were compared using χ2 tests, analysis of variance, or Kruskal-Wallis tests, as appropriate. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of 30-day mortality and SCI.

RESULTS

A total of 4010 patients met the inclusion criteria, with 470 in group 1, 132 in group 2, and 3408 in group 3. The 30-day mortality was 4% (19 of 470) in group 1, 6% (8 of 132) in group 2, and 6% (213 of 3408) in group 3 (P = .17). The incidence of SCI was 3% (14 of 470) in group 1, 3% (4 of 132) in group 2, and 3.8% (128 of 3408) in group 3 (P = .65). Stroke, reintervention, myocardial infarction, and cardiac complications were not significantly different among the 3 groups. The incidence of respiratory complications was greatest for group 3 (11%; 360 of 3408) compared with groups 1 (9%; 44 of 470) and 2 (4%; 5 of 132; P = .034). Similarly, the postoperative length of stay was longest for group 3 (9.6 ± 19.4 days vs 8.2 ± 18.3 days for group 1 and 5.9 ± 8.6 days for group 2; P = .038). The independent predictors of 30-day mortality for all TEVAR patients included units of packed red blood cells transfused intraoperatively, urgent or emergent repairs, older age, increasing serum creatinine level, inability to perform self-care, total procedure time, occlusion of the left subclavian artery intraoperatively, distal endograft landing zone 5, and diabetes. The predictors of SCI included the total procedure time, urgent and emergent repairs, and increasing serum creatinine level.

CONCLUSIONS

TEVAR after previous thoracic aortic repair was not associated with an increased risk of SCI or 30-day mortality compared with TEVAR without previous aortic repair.

Factors predicting one-year post-surgical mortality amongst older Asian patients undergoing moderate to major non-cardiac surgery - a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

While short-term perioperative outcomes have been well studied in Western surgical populations, the aim of this study is to look at the one-year perioperative mortality and its associated factors in an Asian surgical population after non-cardiac surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of 2163 patients aged above 45 undergoing non-cardiac surgery in a university-affiliated tertiary hospital from January to July 2015 was performed. Relevant demographic, clinical and surgical data were analysed to elicit their relationship to mortality at one year after surgery. A univariate analysis was first performed to identify significant variables with p-values ≤ 0.2, which were then analysed using Firth multiple logistic regression to calculate the adjusted odds ratio.

RESULTS

The one-year mortality in our surgical population was 5.9%. The significant factors that increased one-year mortality include smoking (adjusted OR 2.17 (1.02-4.45), p = 0.044), anaemia (adjusted OR 1.32 (1.16-1.47), p < 0.001, for every 1 g/dL drop in haemoglobin level), lower BMI (adjusted OR 0.93 (0.87-0.98), p = 0.005, for every 1 point increase in BMI), Malay and Indian ethnicity (adjusted OR 2.68 (1.53-4.65), p = 0.001), peripheral vascular disease (adjusted OR 4.21 (1.62-10.38), p = 0.004), advanced age (adjusted OR 1.04 (1.01-1.06), p = 0.004, for every one year increase in age), emergency surgery (adjusted OR 2.26 (1.29-3.15), p = 0.005) and malignancy (adjusted OR 3.20 (1.85-5.52), p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that modifiable risk factors such as malnutrition, anaemia and smoking which affect short term mortality extend beyond the immediate perioperative period into longer term outcomes. Identification and optimization of this subset of patients are therefore vital. Further similar large studies should be done to develop a risk scoring system for post-operative long-term outcomes. This would aid clinicians in risk stratification, counselling and surgical planning, which will help in patients' decision making and care planning.

Variables Associated With Cardiac Surgical Waitlist Mortality From a Population-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND

Cardiac surgery waitlist recommendations, which were developed based on expert opinion, poorly predict preoperative mortality. Studies reporting risk factors for waitlist mortality have not evaluated the risks including nonadherence to waitlist benchmarks.

METHODS

In patients who underwent cardiac surgery or died on the waitlist between 2005 and 2015, we used a Fine and Gray competing risk model to identify independent predictors of waitlist mortality in 12,106 patients scheduled for urgent, semiurgent, or nonurgent surgery. The predictive variables were compared with Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) waitlist recommendations using the Akaike information criterion.

RESULTS

A total of 101 (0.8%) patients died awaiting surgery. The median wait times and frequency waitlist deaths among emergent, urgent, semi-urgent, and nonurgent surgery were 0.6, 7.4, 69.0, 55.5 days (P < 0.001) and 6.3%, 0.8%, 0.3%, 0.6% (P < 0.001), respectively. Adherence to CCS waitlist recommendations was higher in patients who died on the waitlist (51.6% vs 70.8%, P = 0.001) and was not predictive of waitlist mortality (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 0.62-0.56). Independent predictors of waitlist mortality were age, aortic surgery, ejection fraction < 35%, urgent surgery, prior myocardial infarction, haemodynamic instability during cardiac catheterization, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. These variables were superior to current CCS guidelines (Akaike information criterion 1251 vs 1317, likelihood ratio test P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CCS waitlist recommendations were poorly predictive of waitlist mortality and the majority of waitlist deaths occur within recommended benchmarks. We identified variables associated with waitlist mortality with improved clinical performance. Our findings suggest a need to re-evaluate cardiac surgical triage criteria using evidence-based data.

Operated descending thoracic and thoracoabdominal atherosclerotic aortic aneurysm prognosis

BACKGROUND

The long-term survival of patients treated from descending thoracic aneurysm (DTA) is well known, more than those treated from a thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm (TAAA). Moreover, studies are rarely focused on the aneurysmal etiology and include both degenerative and post dissecting aneurysms. The aim of this study is to compare the long-term survival of patients operated from DTA or TAAA due to degenerative atherosclerosis.

METHODS

Thirty-nine atherosclerotic aneurysm patients were operated between January 2007 and July 2015 at Rouen University Hospital. Eighteen DTA patients were operated by TEVAR and 21 TAAA patients (8 type I and 13 type III) by open approach. The main endpoint was remote survival patients.

RESULTS

Overall, the initial population was similar in the two groups. However, one third of DTA were treated in context of emergency for painful aneurysm versus 9.5% of patients with TAAA (P=0.066). Survival median of 18 DTA was 18 months (1-68). Survival median of 21 TAAA followed was 66 months (1-91). Survival in both groups was statistically different with the log-rank test (P=0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term prognosis of atherosclerotic DTA may be worse than that of TAAA's. This retrospective study reflects experience in the management of DTA and TAAA in a single-center. Prospective data in patients treated with endovascular procedures for DTA or TAAA, with fenesterated or branched endoprosthesis, are warranted to confirm these results.

Contemporary evaluation of mortality and stroke risk after thoracic endovascular aortic repair

OBJECTIVE

During the past decade, thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has increased as a treatment option for a variety of aortic pathologic processes. Despite this rise in the use of thoracic stent grafts, real-world outcomes from a robust, adjudicated, contemporary data set have yet to be reported. Previous studies have shown periprocedural mortality rates between 1.5% and 9.5% and procedure-related stroke rates of 2.3% to 8.2%. With advances in device engineering and increased experience of physicians, we hypothesized that the rates of these complications would be reduced in a more recent sample set. The purpose of this study was to determine current rates of mortality and stroke after TEVAR, to identify risk factors that contribute to 30-day mortality, and to develop a simple scoring system that allows risk stratification of patients undergoing TEVAR.

METHODS

We examined the 30-day mortality rate after TEVAR using the 2013 to 2014 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Patients undergoing TEVAR for all aortic disease were identified using procedure codes. Bivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the association of preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables with 30-day mortality, followed by multivariable logistic analysis using preoperative variables only, with P < .10 as the criterion for model entry. The predictive logistic model was internally validated by cross-validation. Variables included in the multivariable model were used to develop a risk score.

RESULTS

There were 826 patients included. The 30-day mortality and stroke rates were 7.63% (n = 63) and 4.5% (n = 37), respectively. In regression analysis, mortality was independently associated with age ≥80 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-4.31), emergency case (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.39-4.90), American Society of Anesthesiologists classification >3 (OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.34-6.24), transfusion >4 units in the 72 hours before surgery (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.30-6.28), preoperative creatinine concentration ≥1.8 mg/dL (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.05-4.08), and preoperative white blood cell count ≥12 × 10⁹/L (OR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.41-4.96). Incorporating these factors, a 6-point risk score was generated and demonstrated high predictability for overall 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent data from a national, retrospective data set demonstrate that high perioperative mortality and stroke rates have persisted during the last decade. The risk score derived from this data set is simple and convenient and serves as a prognostic tool in the preoperative risk stratification of patients being evaluated for TEVAR.

Postoperative management

Most patients undergoing major aortic surgery have multiple comorbidities and are at high risk of postoperative complications that affect multiple organ systems. Different aortic pathologies and surgical repair techniques have specific impact on the postoperative course. Ischemia-reperfusion injury is the common denominator in aortic surgery and influences the integrity of end-organ function. Common postoperative problems include hemodynamic instability due to the immediate inflammatory response, renal impairment, spinal cord ischemia, respiratory failure with prolonged mechanical ventilation, and gastrointestinal symptoms such as ileus or mesenteric ischemia. Focused care bundles to establish homeostasis and a team working toward an early functional recovery determine the success of effective rehabilitation and outcomes after aortic surgery.

Outcomes after endovascular or open repair for degenerative descending thoracic aortic aneurysm using linked hospital data

BACKGROUND

The population-based effectiveness of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) versus open surgery for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm remains in doubt.

METHODS

Patients aged over 50 years, without a history of aortic dissection, undergoing repair of a thoracic aortic aneurysm between 2006 and 2011 were assessed using mortality-linked individual patient data from Hospital Episode Statistics (England). The principal outcomes were 30-day operative mortality, long-term survival (5 years) and aortic-related reinterventions. TEVAR and open repair were compared using crude and multivariable models that adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

Overall, 759 patients underwent thoracic aortic aneurysm repair, mainly for intact aneurysms (618, 81·4 per cent). Median ages of TEVAR and open cohorts were 73 and 71 years respectively (P < 0·001), with more men undergoing TEVAR (P = 0·004). For intact aneurysms, the operative mortality rate was similar for TEVAR and open repair (6·5 versus 7·6 per cent; odds ratio 0·79, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0·41 to 1·49), but the 5-year survival rate was significantly worse after TEVAR (54·2 versus 65·6 per cent; adjusted hazard ratio 1·45, 95 per cent c.i. 1·08 to 1·94). After 5 years, aortic-related mortality was similar in the two groups, but cardiopulmonary mortality was higher after TEVAR. TEVAR was associated with more aortic-related reinterventions (23·1 versus 14·3 per cent; adjusted HR 1·70, 95 per cent c.i. 1·11 to 2·60). There were 141 procedures for ruptured thoracic aneurysm (97 TEVAR, 44 open), with TEVAR showing no significant advantage in terms of operative mortality.

CONCLUSION

In England, operative mortality for degenerative descending thoracic aneurysm was similar after either TEVAR or open repair. Patients who had TEVAR appeared to have a higher reintervention rate and worse long-term survival, possibly owing to cardiopulmonary morbidity and other selection bias.

Treatment decisions for descending thoracic aneurysm: preferences for thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair or surveillance in a discrete choice experiment

OBJECTIVE

To investigate and rank factors that influence endovascular treatment decisions by specialists for patients with descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (dTAA).

METHODS

Specialists completed a diagrammatic survey describing uncertainty about the benefit of thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair (TEVAR) for dTAA with respect to age, sex, and aneurysm diameter. Subsequently, a detailed discrete choice experiment was designed. Specialists were recruited and asked to indicate treatment their preference (TEVAR or surveillance) in 25 hypothetical cases of dTAA, with variable patient attributes: age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, aneurysm diameter, adequate landing zone distal to left subclavian artery (LSA), and length of aortic coverage. Data were analysed using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

The diagrammatic survey, based on 50 respondents, showed that uncertainty about the benefits of TEVAR was greatest for patients aged 80-85 years (up to 47% of respondents were "unsure") and that uncertainty increased with increasing aneurysm diameter (for an 80-year-old man, 7% were unsure at 5.5 cm and 33% were unsure at 7.0 cm). Seventy-one specialists (mainly from Europe and North America, 86% vascular surgeons and 98% working in units offering TEVAR) completed the discrete choice experiment. Preference for TEVAR increased greatly with enlarging diameter: adjusted odds ratios (OR) >5.5-6.0 cm = 15.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.83-25.40); >6.0-6.5 cm = 393.0 (95% CI 202.00-766.00); >6.5-7.0 cm = 1829.0 (95% CI 400.00-4,181.00). TEVAR was less likely to be preferred in patients older than 75 years (>75-80 years OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21-0.49; >80-85 years = 0.18, 95% CI 0.11-0.28); in women (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74); in patients classified as ASA grade 4 (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.36-0.57); and in patients with aorta coverage >25 cm (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.32-0.74). The proximal landing zone did not influence preference.

CONCLUSION

Specialists' preferences for endovascular repair of degenerative dTAA vary widely, and demonstrate clinical uncertainty, especially in octogenarians, and a reluctance to offer TEVAR to women. Aneurysm diameter dominates treatment preferences, but patient fitness and length of aortic coverage (>25 cm) also were influential, although the landing zone distal to LSA was not.

Pathology-specific secondary aortic interventions after thoracic endovascular aortic repair

OBJECTIVE

Despite improved short-term outcomes, concerns remain regarding durability of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate the pathology-specific incidence of secondary aortic interventions (SAI) after TEVAR and their impact on survival.

METHODS

Retrospective review was performed of all TEVAR procedures and SAI at one institution from 2004-2011. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate survival.

RESULTS

Of 585 patients, 72 (12%) required SAI at a median of 5.6 months (interquartile range, 1.4-14.2) with 22 (3.7%) requiring multiple SAI. SAI incidence differed significantly by pathology (P = .002) [acute dissection (21.3%), postsurgical (20.0%), chronic dissection (16.7%), degenerative aneurysm (10.8%), traumatic transection (8.1%), penetrating ulcer (1.5%), and other etiologies (14.8%)]. Most common indications after dissection were persistent false lumen flow and proximal/distal extension of disease. For degenerative aneurysms, SAI was performed primarily to treat type I/III endoleaks. SAI patients had a greater mean number of comorbidities (P < .0005), stents placed (P = .0002), and postoperative complications after the index TEVAR (P < .0005) compared with those without SAI. Freedom from SAI at 1 and 5 years (95% confidence interval) was estimated to be 86% (82%-90%) and 68% (57%-76%), respectively. There were no differences in survival (95% confidence interval) between patients requiring SAI and those who did not [SAI 1-year, 88% (77%-93%); 5-year, 51% (37%-63%); and no SAI 1-year, 82% (79%-85%); 5-year, 67% (62%-71%) (log-rank, P = .2)].

CONCLUSIONS

SAI after TEVAR is not uncommon, particularly in patients with dissection, but does not affect long-term survival. Aortic pathology is the most important variable impacting survival and dictated need, timing, and mode of SAI. The varying incidence of SAI by indication underscores the need for diligent surveillance protocols that should be pathology-specific.

Incidence of descending aortic pathology and evaluation of the impact of thoracic endovascular aortic repair: a population-based study in England and Wales from 1999 to 2010

OBJECTIVES

To investigate population trends in thoracic aortic disease (dissections and aneurysms) in England and Wales, with focus on the impact of thoracic endovascular aortic repair on procedure numbers and age at repair.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Routine hospital statistics of England and Wales provided admission, procedure and mortality data from 1999 to 2010. All data were age-standardised, reported per 100,000 population, by age bands (>50 years or 50-74 years versus 75+ years) and gender. Only patients 50+ years were included, to focus on degenerative disease.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2010 hospital admissions for total (ascending and descending) have risen steadily for thoracic aortic dissection (TAD) from 7.2 to 8.8 and thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) from 4.4 to 9.0, principally attributable to increased admissions in those 75+ years. Total mortality declined steadily over the same period, for TAD from 4.4 to 3.2 and for TAA from 10.4 to 7.5. Procedure rates have risen sharply, driven by the implementation of TEVAR from 2006, for type B dissection from 0.06 to 0.53 and for descending TAA from 0.76 to 1.89. All figures are per 100,000 population with P <0.005.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in case ascertainment may have contributed to the increase in hospital admissions. The increased application of TEVAR, particularly for dissections, is mainly in those above 75 years and has not yet translated into an accelerated survival benefit.