Lung cancer mortality in European women: Trends and predictions

The inclusion of the gender perspective in oncology research with Spanish participation

The gender perspective is important for a better diagnosis and treatment of diseases, especially in the field of oncology. This study aimed to analyse the gender approach in scientific articles in the field of oncology by studying the gender composition of the authorship of papers and the gender inclusion in the research carried out. A bibliographic search of articles and reviews signed by at least one Spanish institution published between 2010 and 2019 was carried out using the Science Citation Index Expanded database in the Oncology category. A total of 7523 studies were classified according to the gender composition determined by the author's name and a randomised sample was used to evaluate the inclusion of gender perspectives using a checklist. This study revealed a lack of gender parity in the authorship of oncology publications involving Spanish participation. Papers without author gender parity were eight times higher than papers with parity and showed a greater presence of male than female authorship (58 % versus 31 %). Regarding the introduction of the gender perspective, a negative response of 68 % referring to compliance with the entire checklist was obtained, and only a fifth of the articles presented gender balance in the study sample. Moreover, there is a positive correlation between gender parity in authorship and gender perspective integration in published research. In conclusion, there is a great need to advance the inclusion of gender perspectives in cancer research to overcome gender bias and promote better prevention, detection, and intervention for cancer.

Changes in mortality of Polish residents in the early and late old age due to main causes of death from 2000 to 2019

Purpose

The aim of the study was to assess mortality trends in Poland between 2000 and 2019 in the early and late old age population (65-74 years and over 75 years).

Methods

The work used data on all deaths of Polish residents aged over 65 years (N = 5,496,970). The analysis included the five most common major groups of causes of death: diseases of the circulatory system, malignant neoplasms, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the digestive system and external causes of mortality. The analysis of time trends has been carried out with the use of joinpoint models. The Annual Percentage Change (APC) for each segments of broken lines, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for the whole study period (95% CI), and standardized death rates (SDRs) were calculated.

Results

The percentage of deaths due to diseases of the circulatory system decreased in all the studied subgroups. Among malignant neoplasms, lung and bronchus cancers accounted for the largest percentage of deaths, for which the SDRs among men decreased, while those among women increased. In the early old age, the SDR value increased from 67.8 to 76.3 (AAPC = 0.6%, p > 0.05), while in the late old age group it increased from 112.1 to 155.2 (AAPC = 1.8%, p < 0.05). Among men, there was an upward trend for prostate cancer (AAPC = 0.4% in the early old age group and AAPC = 0.6% in the late old age group, p > 0.05) and a downward trend for stomach cancer (AAPC -3.2 and -2.7%, respectively, p < 0.05). Stomach cancer also showed a decreasing trend among women (AAPC -3.2 and -3.6%, p < 0.05). SDRs due to influenza and pneumonia were increasing. Increasing trends in mortality due to diseases of the digestive system in women and men in the early old age group have been observed in recent years, due to alcoholic liver disease. Among the external causes of mortality in the late old age group, the most common ones were falls.

Conclusions

It is necessary to conduct further research that will allow to diagnose risk and health problems of the elderly subpopulation in order to meet the health burden of the aging society.

Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities.

METHODS

Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases.

CONCLUSIONS

LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

EUROPEAN CANCER MORTALITY PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR 2023 WITH FOCUS ON LUNG CANCER

BACKGROUND

We aimed to predict cancer mortality figures for 2023 for the European Union (EU-27), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and EUROSTAT databases for 1970-2018 we predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates (ASR) for 2023 for all cancers combined and the ten most common cancer sites. We investigated the changes in trends over the observed period. The number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2023 were estimated for all cancers as well as lung cancer.

RESULTS

We predicted 1,261,990 cancer deaths for 2023 in the EU-27, corresponding to ASRs of 123.8/100,000 men (-6.5% vs 2018) and 79.3 for women (-3.7%). Over 1989-2023, about 5,862,600 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU-27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Most cancers displayed favourable predicted rates, with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, that was stable in EU men (8.2/100,000) and rose 3.4% in EU women (5.9/100,000), and female lung cancer which however tends to level off (13.6/100,000). Steady declines are predicted for colorectal, breast prostate, leukemia, stomach in both sexes and male bladder cancers. The focus on lung cancer showed falls in mortality for all age groups in men. Female lung cancer mortality declined in the young -35.8% (ASR 0.8/100,000) and middle aged (-7%, ASR: 31.2/100,000) but still increased 10% in the elderly (65+ years).

CONCLUSION

The advancements in tobacco control are reflected in favorable lung cancer trends, and should be pushed further. Greater efforts on the control of overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, infection and related neoplasms, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatments may achieve a further 35% reduction on cancer mortality in the EU by 2035.

Global trends and regional differences in the burden of cancer attributable to secondhand smoke in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019

Background

To describe the status quo and trends in the global burden of all cancers caused by secondhand smoke during 1990–2019.

Methods

Data on cancer associated with secondhand smoke were extracted from the Global Heath Data Exchange. Cancer burden was measured by cancer-related deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs).

Results

In 2019, age-standardized rates of death, DALYs and YLLs among the cancer population globally caused by secondhand smoke were 1.60, 38.54 and 37.77, respectively. The proportions of these in the total cancer burden for all risk factors combined decreased slightly from 1990 to 2003 and then increased from 2004 to 2019. In 2019, >50% of the cancer burden was concentrated in men aged 55–75 years and women aged 50–70 years. Between 1990 and 2019, there was an increase in age-standardized rates of death, DALYs, YLDs and YLLs among those aged ≥70 years. The age-standardized YLDs rate attributable to secondhand smoke was higher among women; it decreased in men but increased in women, causing a wider gap between the sexes. A greater cancer burden was mainly seen in North America in 1990 and Europe in 2019. Reductions in the annual rate change of cancer burden were found mainly in North America and Oceania, while increases were found in Africa and Asia. In 2019, high–middle- and middle-SDI countries had higher age-standardized rates of deaths, DALYs, YLDs and YLLs than the global level. During 1990 and 2019, the largest decline in cancer burden was seen in high-SDI countries, while middle- or low-SDI countries experienced increases in all age-standardized rates.

Conclusions

Cancer burden attributable to secondhand smoke is concerning given the increasing health loss and differences in distribution of cancer burden worldwide. Further studies are needed to investigate the causes of disparities in cancer burden attributable to secondhand smoke and to improve understanding of the contribution of secondhand smoke to the burden of different types of cancer.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer

BACKGROUND

We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021.

RESULTS

We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988.

CONCLUSION

Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

The Beginning of the Trend Change in Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in Spain, 1980-2018

BACKGROUND

Recently, some countries have shown stable trends in lung cancer death rates among women not yet described for Spain. We propose to update lung cancer mortality rates in Spain during the period of 1980-2018 by sex and region.

METHODS

We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute for the period 1980-2018. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), all ages and 30-64 years, by region and sex were assessed through joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

During the study period lung cancer ASMRs (all ages) in men decreased -0.4% per annum and increased by 3.1% in women. Recently, ASMR (30-64 years) accelerated its decrease (1992-2007; -0.7 and 2007-2018; -3.5%) in men and slowed its increase (1990-2012; 5.7% and 2012-2018; 1.4%) in women. In men, joinpoint analysis detected an initial period in all Autonomous Communities (ACs) in which the rates significantly increased, followed by a second period in which the rates decreased significantly (12 ACs) or remained stable (4 ACs) since the late 1980s or early 1990s. In women, upward trends in ASMRs (all ages) were observed for the whole period in all the ACs. In 13 ACs, an initial period was detected with joinpoint in which the rates remained stable or significantly decreased, followed by a second period in which the rates increased significantly since the late 1980s or early 1990s.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows gender differences in lung cancer mortality trends in Spain. These differences may be explained by the increased use of tobacco among women and the decreased use among men.

Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015

BACKGROUND

Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia.

CONCLUSION

Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.

Gender and Regional Differences in Lung Cancer Mortality in Brazil

Background and Objective:

This was a population-based ecological with data of deaths from the Mortality Information System. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal trends of mortality induced by bronchi and lung cancer in Brazil and its geographical regions between 2001 and 2015 and secondly to calculate predictions for 2016-2030.

Material and Methods:

The mortality trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression and calculation of predictions was used the Nordpred software.

Results:

There was a reduction trend in lung cancer mortality among Brazilian men living in South and Southeast regions of Brazil. However, there was an increasing trend in lung cancer mortality among Brazilian women living in Northeast, Southeast, and South regions of Brazil. When comparing the last observed period and the last foreseen period for males, it is expected an increase of 12.86% in the number of deaths, justified mainly by the change in population structure, with a reduction in the risk of death by the disease. For women, the expected increase is 26.22%, justified both by population structure, and the increased risk of deaths from the disease. The higher rates will be observed in the southern region of the country, for both sexes.

Conclusion:

The mortality induced by lung and bronchial cancer in Brazil was unevenly distributed. However lung cancer incidence had a reducing trend, the mortality caused following it was increased among men. For women, the rates are rising, and until 2030, the mortality load will continue to rise for both.

Changes in tobacco-related morbidity and mortality in French women: worrying trends

BACKGROUND

The high prevalence of smoking among French women since the 1970s has been reflected over the past decade by a strong impact on the health of women. This paper describes age and gender differences in France of the impact of smoking on morbidity and mortality trends since the 2000s.

METHODS

Smoking prevalence trends were based on estimates from national surveys from 1974 to 2017. Lung cancer incidence were estimated from 2002-12 cancer registry data. Morbidity data for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation and myocardial infarction were assessed through hospital admissions data, 2002-15. For each disease, number of deaths between 2000 and 2014 came from the national database on medical causes of death. The tobacco-attributable mortality (all causes) was obtained using a population-attributable fraction methodology.

RESULTS

The incidence of lung cancer and COPD increased by 72% and 100%, respectively, among women between 2002 and 2015. For myocardial infarction before the age of 65, the incidence increased by 50% between 2002 and 2015 in women vs. 16% in men and the highest increase was observed in women of 45-64-year-olds. Mortality from lung cancer and COPD increased by 71% and 3%, respectively, among women. The estimated number of women who died as a result of smoking has more than doubled between 2000 and 2014 (7% vs. 3% of all deaths).

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in the prevalence of smoking among women has a major impact on the morbidity and mortality of tobacco-related diseases in women and will continue to increase for a number of years.

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise all studies using statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence or mortality rates more than 5 years into the future.

STUDY TYPE

Systematic review.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search in multiple electronic databases to identify studies published from 1 January 1988 to 14 August 2018, which used statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for additional potentially relevant articles. We developed an organisational framework to classify methods into groups according to the type of data and the statistical models used. Included studies were critically appraised using prespecified criteria.

RESULTS

One hundred and one studies met the inclusion criteria; six studies used more than one statistical method. The number of studies reporting statistical projections for lung cancer increased substantially over time. Eighty-eight studies used projection methods, which did not incorporate data on smoking in the population, and 16 studies used a method which did incorporate data on smoking. Age-period-cohort models (44 studies) were the most commonly used methods, followed by other generalised linear models (35 studies). The majority of models were developed using observed rates for more than 10 years and used data that were considered to be good quality. A quarter of studies provided comparisons of fitted and observed rates. While validation by withholding the most recent observed data from the model and then comparing the projected and observed rates for the most recent period provides important information on the model's performance, only 12 studies reported doing this.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provides an up-to-date summary of the statistical methods used in published lung cancer incidence or mortality projections. The assessment of the strengths of existing methods will help researchers to better apply and develop statistical methods for projecting lung cancer rates. Some of the common methods described in this review can be applied to the projection of rates for other cancer types or other non-infectious diseases.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer

BACKGROUND

To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019.

RESULTS

We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths.

CONCLUSION

Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.

Applying Data Science methods and tools to unveil healthcare use of lung cancer patients in a teaching hospital in Spain

PURPOSE

Our primary goal was to study the use of outpatient attendances by lung cancer patients in Hospital Universitario Puerta de Hierro Majadahonda (HUPHM), Spain, by leveraging our Electronic Patient Record (EPR) and structured clinical registry of lung cancer cases as well as assessing current Data Science methods and tools.

METHODS/PATIENTS

We applied the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) to integrate and analyze activity data extracted from the EPR (9.3 million records) and clinical data of lung cancer patients from a previous registry that was curated into a new, structured database based on REDCap. We have described and quantified factors with an influence in outpatient care use from univariate and multivariate points of view (through Poisson and negative binomial regression).

RESULTS

Three cycles of CRISP-DM were performed resulting in a curated database of 522 lung cancer patients with 133 variables which generated 43,197 outpatient visits and tests, 1538 ER visits and 753 inpatient admissions. Stage and ECOG-PS at diagnosis and Charlson Comorbidity Index were major contributors to healthcare use. We also found that the patients' pattern of healthcare use (even before diagnosis), the existence of a history of cancer in first-grade relatives, smoking habits, or even age at diagnosis, could play a relevant role.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrating activity data from EPR and clinical structured data from lung cancer patients and applying CRISP-DM has allowed us to describe healthcare use in connection with clinical variables that could be used to plan resources and improve quality of care.

Cancer Mortality Trend in Central Italy: Focus on A "Low Rate of Land Use" Area from 1982 to 2011

The aim of the present study was to estimate total cancer mortality trends from 1982 to 2011 in a “low rate of land use” province of the Latium region (Rieti, central Italy) characterized by a low degree of urbanization, a high prevalence of elderly, and a low number of births. Mortality data of the studied period, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were used for calculating standardized cancer mortality rates. Trends in mortality were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results showed that total standardized cancer mortality rates decreased in the monitored area over the study period. A comparison with other provinces of the same region evidenced that the studied province presented the lowest cancer mortality. The three systems/apparatuses affected by cancer that mainly influenced cancer mortality in the monitored province were the trachea-bronchus-lung, colorectal-anus, and stomach. These findings could be attributed to the implement of preventive initiatives performed in the early 2000s, to healthier environmental scenario, and to lower levels of carcinogenic pollutants in air, water, and soil matrices. Thus, our results indicate that the studied area could be considered a “healthy” benchmark for studies in oncological diseases.

Uveal metastases in the mid-southeastern United States: a single-institution experience

Purpose

To report the clinical features of uveal metastases in a geographic region associated with high tobacco use.

Methods

Medical records from all patients diagnosed with uveal metastasis at a single tertiary referral center between 2000 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. The clinical features and the primary tumor site associated with each metastatic lesion were recorded.

Results

Ninety-nine uveal metastatic tumors were identified in 85 eyes of 74 patients (34 males). Median age at diagnosis was 62 years. Median tumor diameter was 11.6 mm and median height was 3.1 mm. Carcinoma of the lung was the most common primary tumor occurring in 37 patients (50%) followed by breast in 16 patients (21%). Among females, metastatic lesions originated from the lung in 18 patients and from the breast in 16 patients. Median survival following intraocular metastasis was 9 months for patients with a primary lung malignancy and 36 months for patients with breast cancer (log-rank test, P=0.002).

Conclusion

Intraocular metastasis is more frequently observed in patients with carcinomas of the lung rather than breast at our treatment center. Both regional and global changes in cancer epidemiology most likely account for the findings in this study.

Projections in Breast and Lung Cancer Mortality among Women: A Bayesian Analysis of 52 Countries Worldwide

Among women, lung cancer mortality rates have surpassed those for breast cancer in several countries. This reflects the breast cancer mortality declines due to access to screening and effective treatment alongside the entrance of certain countries in stages of the tobacco epidemic in which smoking becomes more prevalent in women. In this study, we project lung and breast cancer mortality until 2030 in 52 countries. Cancer mortality data were obtained from the WHO Mortality Database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), per 100,000, were calculated (direct method) for 2008 to 2014 and projected for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model. In 52 countries studied around the world, between 2015 and 2030, the median ASMR are projected to increase for lung cancer, from 11.2 to 16.0, whereas declines are expected for breast cancer, from 16.1 to 14.7. In the same period, the ASMR will decrease in 36 countries for breast cancer and in 15 countries for lung cancer. In half of the countries analyzed, and in nearly three quarters of those classified as high-income countries, the ASMR for lung cancer has already surpassed or will surpass the breast cancer ASMR before 2030. The mortality for lung and breast cancer is higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries; lung cancer mortality is lower in the latter because the tobacco epidemic is not yet widespread. Due to these observed characteristics of lung cancer, primary prevention should still be a key factor to decrease lung cancer mortality.Significance: The mortality for lung and breast cancer is projected to be higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries, where lung cancer mortality is expected to surpass breast cancer mortality before 2030. Cancer Res; 78(15); 4436-42. ©2018 AACR.

Relation between mortality trends of cardiovascular diseases and selected cancers in the European Union, in 1970-2017. Focus on cohort and period effects

AIM

To characterise mortality trends from major non-communicable diseases in the European Union (EU) analysing data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database.

METHODS

We obtained EU population and death certification data for major non-communicable diseases, i.e. seven cancer sites (stomach, intestine, pancreas, lung, breast, prostate and haematopoietic), total cancers, coronary heart diseases (CHDs) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) from the WHO Mortality Database over the 1970 and 2012 period. We computed age-standardised rates (world standard population) and applied joinpoint regression models to identify temporal trends and age period cohort (APC) models to disentangle the effects of age, period of death and cohort of birth on mortality.

RESULTS

In 2012, 2.4 million deaths were recorded in the EU (1.3 million from cancers and 1.1 million from CHD and CVD combined). Over the last decade, mortality from cancer fell by 14% in men and 8% in women, resulting in age-standardised rates of 144 and 88/100,000 persons, respectively, in 2012. The only exceptions to the general downward trends were pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. Both cardiovascular diseases mortality fell over 35% in both sexes with rates of 60 and 28/100,000 for CHD, and of 30 and 23/100,000 for CVD, in men and women, respectively, in 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall trends in mortality rates from non-communicable diseases in the EU were favourable, and the joinpoint and APC models indicated these trends are likely to continue in the near future. Lack of progress in tobacco-related mortality in women underlines the importance of female-specific anti-tobacco policies.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer

Background

We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer.

Materials and methods

We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model.

Results

The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups.

Conclusion

European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.

Divergent trends in lung cancer incidence by gender, age and histological type in Estonia: a nationwide population-based study

Background

Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer deaths in men and the second most frequent cause of cancer deaths in women in Estonia. The study aimed to analyze time trends in LC incidence and mortality in Estonia over the 30-year period, which included major social, economic and health care transition. The results are discussed in the context of changes in tobacco control and smoking prevalence. Long-term predictions of incidence and mortality are provided.

Methods

Data for calculating the incidence and mortality rates in 1985–2014 were obtained from the nationwide population-based Estonian Cancer Registry and the Causes of Death Registry. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends and estimate annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Nordpred model was used to project future incidence and mortality trends for 2015–2034.

Results

Incidence peaked among men in 1991 and decreased thereafter (APC: -1.5, 95% CI: -1.8; −1.3). A decline was seen for all age groups, except age ≥ 75 years, and for all histological types, except adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma. Incidence among women increased overall (APC: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1; 2.0) and in all age groups and histological types, except small cell carcinoma. Age-standardized incidence rate (world) per 100,000 was 54.2 in men and 12.9 in women in 2014. Changes in mortality closely followed those in incidence. According to our predictions, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates will continue to decrease in men and reach a plateau in women.

Conclusions

The study revealed divergent LC trends by gender, age and histological type, which were generally consistent with main international findings. Growing public awareness and stricter tobacco control have stimulated overall favorable changes in men, but not yet in women. Large increase in incidence was observed for adenocarcinoma, which in men showed a trend opposite to the overall decline. LC will remain a serious public health issue in Estonia due to a high number of cases during the next decades, related to aging population, and previous and current smoking patterns. National tobacco control policy in Estonia should prioritize preventing smoking initiation and promoting smoking cessation, particularly among women.

The International Epidemiology of Lung Cancer: Latest Trends, Disparities, and Tumor Characteristics

INTRODUCTION

Our aim was to update global lung cancer epidemiology and describe changing trends and disparities.

METHODS

We presented country-specific incidence and mortality from GLOBOCAN 2012 by region and socioeconomic factors via the Human Development Index (HDI). Between- and within-country incidence by histological type was analyzed by using International Agency for Research on Cancer data on cancer incidence on five continents. Trend analyses including data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer, cancer registries, and the WHO mortality database were conducted using joinpoint regression. Survival was compared between and within countries and by histological type.

RESULTS

In 2012, there were 1.82 and 1.59 million new lung cancer cases and deaths worldwide, respectively. Incidence was highest in countries with a very high HDI and lowest in countries with a low HDI (42.2 versus 7.9 in 100,000 for males and 21.8 versus 3.1 in 100,000 for females, respectively). In most countries with a very high HDI, as incidence in males decreased gradually (ranging from -0.3% in Spain to -2.5% in the United States each year), incidence in females continued to increase (with the increase ranging from 1.4% each year in Australia to 6.1% in recent years in Spain). Although histological type varied between countries, adenocarcinoma was more common than squamous cell carcinoma, particularly among females (e.g., in Chinese females, the adenocarcinoma-to-squamous cell carcinoma ratio was 6.6). Five-year relative survival varied from 2% (Libya) to 30% (Japan), with substantial within-country differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer will continue to be a major health problem well through the first half of this century. Preventive strategies, particularly tobacco control, tailored to populations at highest risk are key to reducing the global burden of lung cancer.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias

BACKGROUND

Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS

Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively.

CONCLUSION

The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.

Lung cancer mortality and years of potential life lost among males and females over six decades in a country with high smoking prevalence: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about sex-specific trends in lung cancer mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to lung cancer over more than five decades. The aim of the present study was to describe mortality and YPLL due to lung cancer over 61 years of observation in a country with a high smoking prevalence.

METHODS

We obtained data on trends in lung cancer mortality, population-level vital statistics, sales of taxed tobacco products, and survey data on smoking behavior among the German population. We then undertook joinpoint regression analyses to determine sex-specific trends in lung cancer mortality and YPLL.

RESULTS

Rates of lung cancer mortality and rates of lung cancer among all causes of death increased more among females than among males. Although YPLL among females increased from 6.6 in 1952 to 11.3 in 2012, this figure was found to have decreased from 7.3 to 4.4 among males in the same period. Sales of tobacco subject to tax increased from 1,509 cigarette equivalents per resident aged 15 or older in 1952 to 2,916 in 1976 - after which there was a decline. The prevalence of current smoking among females aged 35 years or older remained stable between 17.9 and 18.9 % in the period from 1989 to 2009. Among males in the same age group, however, prevalence decreased from 36.7 % in 1989 to 27.5 % in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer mortality and YPLL among females increased over the six decades studied. Women should be more considered in smoking policies.

Trends in lung cancer incidence by histologic subtype in the south of Spain, 1985-2012: a population-based study

PURPOSE

To analyze and interpret age- and sex-specific incidence trends of lung cancer in Granada over the period 1985-2012 and to further analyze these trends by histologic subtype.

METHODS

Incidence data were obtained from the population-based cancer registry located in Granada (Southern Spain). All cases with newly diagnosed primary lung cancer over the period 1985-2012 (n = 8658) and defined by International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (codes C33-C34) were included. Joinpoint regression analysis of age-standardized incidence rates was used to estimate the annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals. Results are presented overall and by sex, age groups (0-34, 35-54, 55-64, 65-74, ≥75 years) and histologic subtypes.

RESULTS

Temporal trends of incidence rates by sex, over the period 1985-2012, showed a distinct pattern. A significant change point of the trend was observed in males in 1994 (APC: +2.5%; 95% CI 0.7-4.4 from 1985 to 1994 and -1.4%; 95% CI -2.0 to -0.7 from 1994 onward). This general change was mainly caused by the age group 65-74 years and by the higher incidence of squamous cell carcinoma histologic subtype. In females, lung cancer incidence increased over the entire study period by +4.2% per year (95% CI 3.1-5.4); this trend was mainly caused by the age group 55-64 years (APC = +7%) and by adenocarcinoma incidence between women (APC = +6.8%).

CONCLUSION

Male lung cancer incidence rates have decreased in Granada, while female rates have increased overall especially in younger women. These trends may reflect the increased consumption of cigarettes in women, especially during younger ages. Lung cancer prevention through tobacco control policies are therefore of utmost importance.

Incidence of major smoking-related cancers: trends among adults aged 20-44 in France from 1982 to 2012

BACKGROUND

Tobacco is currently the largest risk factor for cancers of the lung, lip/oral cavity/pharynx (LOCP) and esophagus. Variations in tobacco consumption over time have led to changes in cancer incidence in the general population. Data on the incidence of cancers at these sites in adults aged 20-44 years old are scarce. Our objective was to provide estimates of incidence trends for these cancers in France among this age group over the last 30 years.

METHODS

Observed incidence data over the period 1982-2010 for the 20-44 age group were provided from six cancer registries (eight for esophagus) covering approximately 6% of the French population. Age-period-cohort models were used on the observed period, and estimates of cancer incidence for France in 2012 were provided on the basis of short-term predictions.

RESULTS

In men, a sharp decline was observed over time for LOCP and esophageal cancers, while lung cancer saw only a slight decline. In women, a large increase was seen in lung cancer incidence, while LOCP cancer incidence did not vary significantly.

CONCLUSION

Smoking behaviors among adults aged 20-44 impact incidence trends in cancers of the lung, LOCP and esophagus, although other factors are involved, particularly in LOCP and esophageal cancers. Our results highlight the importance of preventative efforts which particularly target women aged 20-44. Efforts to curb tobacco smoking in men should also be pursued.

Trends in site- and sex-specific cancer mortality between 1979 and 2010 in Belgium compared with Europe using WHO data

BACKGROUND

Cancer mortality constitutes a major health burden in Europe. Trends are different for men and women, and across Europe. This study aims to map out Belgian cancer mortality trends for the most common cancer types in both sexes between 1979 and 2010, and to link these with trends in cancer mortality and smoking prevalence across Europe.

METHODS

Mortality and population data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization using the European Standard Population.

RESULTS

Belgian mortality decreased for the most common cancer sites between 1979 and 2010, except for female lung cancer. Yet, Belgian male lung and female breast cancer rates remain high compared with the remainder of Western Europe. For some cancer sites, mortality trends are similar among the European Regions (e.g. stomach cancer), yet for others trends are divergent (e.g. colorectal cancer).

CONCLUSIONS

Generally, cancer mortality shows a favorable trend in Belgium and Europe. Yet, female lung cancer mortality rates are increasing in Belgium. Furthermore, Belgium still has higher male lung and female breast cancer mortality rates compared with the European regional averages. Considering this and the current smoking prevalence, enduring tobacco control efforts should be made.

Global cancer statistics, 2012

Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND

Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 1,359,100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766,200 men and 592,900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100,000 men and 83.9/100,000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100,000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates--though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325,000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

The lung cancer epidemic in Spanish women: an analysis of mortality rates over a 37-year period

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer continues to be the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the European Union (EU) and deaths from lung cancer have been projected to escalate to epidemic proportions amongst females over the next years. We examined lung cancer mortality rates in men and women from Andalusia (Spain) over a 37-year period [1975-2012].

METHODS

Longitudinal epidemiological study analyzing lung cancer mortality trends in males and females. Data on lung cancer mortality in Andalusia for the period 1975-2012 were obtained from the official cause-of-death publications of the Institute of Statistics of Andalusia. For each sex, age-standardized (European standard population) mortality rates (ASR) from lung cancer were calculated for all ages and truncated at 30-64, 65-74, and >75 years using the direct method. Standardized rate trends by age and sex were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

In men, the ASR steadily increased through the period 1993-1995, reaching a peak of 145.72 deaths/100,000 people. Subsequently, lung cancer deaths decreased to a rate of 125.47 in the 2011-2012 period. A moderate increase was seen in women until the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thereafter, a very notable rise was observed in females for all age groups, the only exception being older subjects. The sex differences decreased from 8.6:1 in the 1975-1977 period to 6.8:1 in the 2011-2012 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer mortality rates decreased significantly in Andalusian men from 1975 to 2012. More importantly, we demonstrate for the first time the beginning of the lung cancer epidemics in Andalusian women as previously predicted for this area.

2014 update on non-small cell lung cancer (excluding diagnosis)

Lung cancer (LC) is a major public health issue because of its frequency, but especially because of the severity of this disease. The epidemiology has changed with an increased incidence in non-smokers and women. The ATS/ERS/IASLC classification of adenocarcinomas was modified in 2011, and they are now the most frequent histological subtype. More than half the cases of LC are diagnosed at the metastatic stage. Biopsies must provide tissue samples that are quantitatively large enough and of a good enough quality for diagnosis and to search for biomarkers. When the cancer seems to be localized, precise staging must be obtained. Treatment is based on the TNM classification. In localized stages, lobectomy associated with lymph node dissection is the standard therapy. Intraoperative chemotherapy improves survival in case of lymph node infiltration. Stereotactic radiation therapy and radiofrequency can be considered as specific cases. In cases with local progression, treatment is more controversial. In the presence of metastases, the goal is not a cure, but improving survival and quality of life. Numerous advances have been made with personalized treatment, (in particular in relation to the histological type and oncogenic addiction in tumors, access to new drugs, and improved management). Clinical research in thoracic cancer is very active. The fight against tobacco should remain a priority.

International variation in lung cancer mortality rates and trends among women

BACKGROUND

There is no recent comprehensive global analysis of lung cancer mortality in women. We describe contemporary mortality rates and trends among women globally.

METHODS

We used the World Health Organization's Cancer Mortality Database covering 65 populations on six continents to calculate age-standardized (1960 Segi world standard) lung cancer death rates during 2006 to 2010 and annual percent change in rates for available years from 1985 to 2011 and for the most recent five data years by population and age group (30-49 and 50-74 years).

RESULTS

Lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000) among young women (30-49 years) during 2006 to 2010 ranged from 0.7 in Costa Rica to 14.8 in Hungary. Rates among young women were stable or declining in 47 of 52 populations examined. Rates among women 50 to 74 years ranged from 8.8 in Georgia and Egypt to 120.0 in Scotland. In both age groups, rates were highest in parts of Europe (Scotland, Hungary, Denmark) and North America and lowest in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Rates in older women were increasing for more than half (36/64) of populations examined, including most countries in Southern, Eastern, and Western Europe and South America.

CONCLUSIONS

Although widespread reductions in lung cancer in young women provide evidence of tobacco control success, rates continue to increase among older women in many countries.

IMPACT

More concentrated efforts to initiate or expand tobacco control programs in these countries globally will be required to attenuate the future lung cancer burden. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(6); 1025-36. ©2014 AACR.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014

BACKGROUND

From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS

In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

Lung cancer in women: an overview with special focus on Spanish women

Lung cancer incidence is decreasing worldwide among men but rising among women due to recent changes in smoking patterns in both sexes. In Europe, the smoking epidemic has evolved different rates and times, and policy responses to it, vary substantially between countries. Differences in smoking prevalence are much more evident among European women reflecting the heterogeneity in cancer incidence rates. Other factors rather than smoking and linked to sex may increase women's susceptibility to lung cancer, such as genetic predisposition, exposure to sex hormones and molecular features, all of them linked to epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of lung cancer in women. However, biological bases of sex-specific differences are controversial and need further evaluation. This review focuses on the epidemiology and outcome concerning non-small cell lung cancer in women, with emphasis given to the Spanish population.

Cancer mortality trends between 1988 and 2009 in the metropolitan area of Naples and Caserta, Southern Italy: Results from a joinpoint regression analysis

Mortality data by geographic area and trend-based surveillance are particularly relevant in orienting public health decisions targeting specific populations. We analyzed overall and site-specific cancer mortality between 1988 and 2009 in the metropolitan area of Naples and Caserta in southern Italy. Age-standardized mortality rates (SMR) were computed for each 5-y age group, by gender, primitive cancer site and specific Province in the overall population and age-defined subgroups. Cancer mortality trends were quantified by annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). From Naples and Caserta, the reduction observed between 1988 and 2009 in SMR in males, but not in females, was significantly lower compared with the decrease reported at a national level (-11.4% and -28.4%, respectively). In elderly men, differences between local and national SMR were more pronounced (+13.6% compared with -2.7%). In males, the joinpoint regression analysis showed the following APC and 95% CI: -0.9%/year (-1.2; -0.7) and -0.6%/year (-1.0; -0.2) for Naples and Caserta, respectively. In females, estimates were -0.6%/year (-0.8; -0.5) and -0.7%/year (-1.2; -0.3). The overall orientation toward declining cancer mortality trends appeared in antithesis with the slight, but significant, increase for some tumors (e.g., pancreatic cancer in both genders). A complex mixture of heterogeneous factors concurs to explain the evidence observed including lifestyle, access to screening procedures, advancements in cancer diagnosis and treatment. Further details might eventually derive from biomonitoring studies for ascertaining the causal link between exposure to potential contaminants in air, water, and soil and cancer-related outcomes in the area of interest.

Cancer mortality in Europe, 2005-2009, and an overview of trends since 1980

BACKGROUND

After a peak in the late 1980s, cancer mortality in Europe has declined by ~10% in both sexes up to the early 2000s. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in mortality from major cancers in Europe.

METHODS

We analyzed cancer mortality data from the World Health Organization for 25 cancer sites and 34 European countries (plus the European Union, EU) in 2005-2009. We computed age-standardized rates (per 100,000 person-years) using the world standard population and provided an overview of trends since 1980 for major European countries, using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Cancer mortality in the EU steadily declined since the late 1980s, with reductions by 1.6% per year in 2002-2009 in men and 1% per year in 1993-2009 in women. In western Europe, rates steadily declined over the last two decades for stomach and colorectal cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukemias in both sexes, breast and (cervix) uterine cancer in women, and testicular cancer in men. In central/eastern Europe, mortality from major cancer sites has been increasing up to the late 1990s/early 2000s. In most Europe, rates have been increasing for lung cancer in women and for pancreatic cancer and soft tissue sarcomas in both sexes, while they have started to decline over recent years for multiple myeloma. In 2005-2009, there was still an over twofold difference between the highest male cancer mortality in Hungary (235.2/100,000) and the lowest one in Sweden (112.9/100,000), and a 1.7-fold one in women (from 124.4 in Denmark to 71.0/100,000 in Spain).

CONCLUSIONS

With the major exceptions of female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes, in the last quinquennium, cancer mortality has moderately but steadily declined across Europe. However, substantial differences across countries persist, requiring targeted interventions on risk factor control, early diagnosis, and improved management and pharmacological treatment for selected cancer sites.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013

BACKGROUND

Estimated cancer mortality statistics were published for the years 2011 and 2012 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models and the World Health Organization mortality and population database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized (world) mortality rates (ASRs) in 2013 from all cancers and selected cancers.

RESULTS

The 2013 predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU is 1 314 296 (737 747 men and 576 489 women). Between 2009 and 2013, all cancer ASRs are predicted to fall by 6% to 140.1/100 000 in men, and by 4% to 85.3/100 000 in women. The ASRs per 100 000 are 6.6 men and 2.9 women for stomach, 16.7 men and 9.5 women for intestines, 8.0 men and 5.5 women for pancreas, 37.1 men and 13.9 women for lung, 10.5 men for prostate, 14.6 women for breast, and 4.7 for uterine cancer, and 4.2 and 2.6 for leukaemia. Recent trends are favourable except for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Favourable trends will continue in 2013. Pancreatic cancer has become the fourth cause of cancer death in both sexes, while in a few years lung cancer will likely become the first cause of cancer mortality in women as well, overtaking breast cancer.

Changing patterns of cardiovascular diseases and cancer mortality in Portugal, 1980-2010

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases and cancer are jointly responsible for more than half all deaths in Portugal. They also share some important risk factors and act as mutual competing risks. We aimed firstly to describe time trends in death rates and years of life lost due to cardiovascular diseases and cancer in the Portuguese population from 1980 to 2010; and secondly to quantify the contribution of the variation in population and age structure, and age-independent "risk" by cardiovascular or oncological causes to the change in the corresponding number of deaths.

METHODS

We estimated the annual percent change in age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases and cancer, in each sex. The specific contribution of demographic changes (due to changes in population size and in population age structure) and the variation in the age-independent "risk" of dying from the disease to the observed trends in the number of deaths was quantified using the tool RiskDiff. Years of life lost were computed using the Global Burden of Disease method.

RESULTS

Among men, the mortality rate from all cardiovascular diseases was more than two-fold higher than cancer mortality in 1980. However, three decades later mortality from cancer surpassed cardiovascular diseases. After 2005, the years of life lost from cancer were also higher than from cardiovascular diseases. Among women, despite the decrease in death rates, cardiovascular diseases remained the leading cause of death in 2010 and their absolute burden was higher than that of cancers across the whole period, mainly due to more events in older women.

CONCLUSIONS

In Portugal, the 20th century witnessed a dramatic decrease in the cardiovascular disease mortality and YLL, and the transition towards cancer. In more recent years, the highest burdens of disease came from cancers in men and from cardiovascular diseases in women.