Ballast water as a vector of coral pathogens in the Gulf of Mexico: the case of the Cayo Arcas coral reef

Recent advancements in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change

Corals are the visible indicators of the disasters induced by global climate change and anthropogenic activities and have become a highly vulnerable ecosystem on the verge of extinction. Multiple stressors could act individually or synergistically which results in small to large scale tissue degradation, reduced coral covers, and makes the corals vulnerable to various diseases. The coralline diseases are like the Chicken pox in humans because they spread hastily throughout the coral ecosystem and can devastate the coral cover formed over centuries in an abbreviated time. The extinction of the entire reef ecosystem will alter the ocean and earth's amalgam of biogeochemical cycles causing a threat to the entire planet. The current manuscript provides an overview of the recent advancement in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change. Culture dependent and independent approaches in studying the microbiome of corals, the diseases caused by microorganisms, and the reservoirs of coral pathogens are also discussed. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of protecting the coral reefs from diseases through microbiome transplantation and the capabilities of remote sensing in monitoring their health status.

A study on treatment efficacy of ballast water treatment system applying filtration + membrane separation + deoxygenation technology during shipboard testing

The efficacy of a BWMS with filtration + membrane separation + deoxygenation technology in treating ballast water was investigated under marine operational circumstances in five shipboard tests. The shipboard tests were carried out between August 2020 and March 2021 onboard a bulk carrier JIN HAI HUA, which sailed between Mawei, Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian in China throughout spring, summer, and fall season. The discharge results in all five tests met the D-2 standard in IMO BWMS Code, with the shortest holding time of less than three days. The BWMS does not involve application of chemicals or generation of by-products, and is considered to be an appropriate choice for certain types of ships.

Transmission of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) in simulated ballast water confirms the potential for ship-born spread

Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) remains an unprecedented epizootic disease, representing a substantial threat to the persistence and health of coral reef ecosystems in the Tropical Western Atlantic since its first observation near Miami, Florida in 2014. In addition to transport between adjacent reefs indicative of waterborne pathogen(s) dispersing on ocean currents, it has spread throughout the Caribbean to geographically- and oceanographically-isolated reefs, in a manner suggestive of ship and ballast water transmission. Here we evaluate the potential for waterborne transmission of SCTLD including via simulated ballast water, and test the efficacy of commonly-used UV radiation treatment of ballast water. Two species of reef-building corals (Orbicella faveolata and Pseudodiploria strigosa) were subjected to (1) disease-exposed or UV-treated disease-exposed water, and (2) a ballast hold time series of disease-exposed water in two carefully-controlled experiments to evaluate transmission. Our experiments demonstrated transmission of SCTLD through water, rather than direct contact between diseased and healthy corals. While UV treatment of disease-exposed water led to a 50% reduction in the number of corals exhibiting disease signs in both species, the statistical risk of transmission and volume of water needed to elicit SCTLD lesions remained similar to untreated disease-exposed water. The ballast hold time (24 h vs. 120 h) did not have a significant effect on the onset of visible disease signs for either species, though there appeared to be some evidence of a concentration effect for P. strigosa as lesions were only observed after the 120 h ballast hold time. Results from both experiments suggest that the SCTLD pathogens can persist in both untreated and UV-treated ballast water and remain pathogenic. Ballast water may indeed pose a threat to the continued spread and persistence of SCTLD, warranting further investigation of additional ballast water treatments and pathogen detection methods.

Strategies for managing marine disease

The incidence of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) has increased in wildlife populations in recent years and is expected to continue to increase with global environmental change. Marine diseases are relatively understudied compared with terrestrial diseases but warrant parallel attention as they can disrupt ecosystems, cause economic loss, and threaten human livelihoods. Although there are many existing tools to combat the direct and indirect consequences of EIDs, these management strategies are often insufficient or ineffective in marine habitats compared with their terrestrial counterparts, often due to fundamental differences between marine and terrestrial systems. Here, we first illustrate how the marine environment and marine organism life histories present challenges and opportunities for wildlife disease management. We then assess the application of common disease management strategies to marine versus terrestrial systems to identify those that may be most effective for marine disease outbreak prevention, response, and recovery. Finally, we recommend multiple actions that will enable more successful management of marine wildlife disease emergencies in the future. These include prioritizing marine disease research and understanding its links to climate change, improving marine ecosystem health, forming better monitoring and response networks, developing marine veterinary medicine programs, and enacting policy that addresses marine and other wildlife diseases. Overall, we encourage a more proactive rather than reactive approach to marine wildlife disease management and emphasize that multidisciplinary collaborations are crucial to managing marine wildlife health.

International shipping as a potent vector for spreading marine parasites

Aim

The global shipping fleet, the primary means of transporting goods among countries, also serves as a major dispersal mechanism for marine invasive species. To date, researchers have primarily focussed on the role of ships in transferring marine macrofauna, often overlooking transfers of associated parasites, which can have larger impacts on naïve host individuals and populations. Here, we re-examine three previously published metabarcode datasets targeting zooplankton and protists in ships' ballast water to assess the diversity of parasites across life stages arriving to three major US ports.

Location

Port of Hampton Roads in the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia; Ports of Texas City, Houston and Bayport in Galveston Bay, Texas; and Port of Valdez in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Methods

We selected all known parasitic taxa, using sequences generated from the small subunit gene (SSU) from ribosomal RNA (rRNA) amplified from (1) zooplankton collected from plankton tows (35 and 80 μm datasets) and (2) eukaryotes collected from samples of ships' ballast water (3 μm dataset).

Results

In all three datasets, we found a broad range of parasitic taxa, including many protistan and metazoan parasites, that infect a wide range of hosts, from teleost fish to dinoflagellates. Parasite richness was highest in the 3 μm dataset and relatively uniform across arrival regions. Several parasite taxa were found in high relative abundance (based on number of sequences recovered) either in ships entering a single or across multiple regions.

Main Conclusions

The ubiquity, diversity and relative abundance of parasites detected demonstrate ships are a potent vector for spreading marine parasites across the world's oceans, potentially contributing to reported increases in outbreaks of marine diseases. Future research is urgently needed to evaluate the fate of parasites upon arrival and the efficacy of ballast water treatment systems to reduce future transfers and colonization.

Considering Commercial Vessels as Potential Vectors of Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease

Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is a troubling new disease that is spreading rapidly across the greater Caribbean region, but the etiological agent(s) and the mechanisms(s) of spread are both unknown. First detected off the coast of Miami, Florida, major ocean currents alone do not explain the pattern of spread, with outbreaks occurring across geographically disjunct and distant locations. This has raised concerns by researchers and resource managers that commercial vessels may contribute as vectors to spread of the disease. Despite existing regulatory and management strategies intended to limit coastal marine invasion risks, the efficacy of these measures is still unresolved for ship-borne microorganisms, and disease transport via ballast water and hull biofouling are under examination given the high ship traffic in the region. Here, to help inform the discussion of ships as possible vectors of SCTLD, we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about ships and their potential to transfer organisms in the greater Caribbean, focusing in particular on ballast water, and outline a set of recommendations for future research.

Molecular detection of E. coli and Vibrio cholerae in ballast water of commercial ships: a primary study along the Persian Gulf

PURPOSE

Ballast water is one of the most important ways for the transfer of aquatic organisms such as Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Vibrio cholerae. The aim of this study was to investigate Mdh gene of E. coli and the OmpW gene of Vibrio cholerae bacteria by PCR technique in the ballast water of commercial ships entering Bushehr port along the Persian Gulf.

METHODS

In this study, 34 samples of ballast water entered Bushehr port were studied by using culture and PCR methods to determine Mdh gene of E. coli and OmpW gene of Vibrio cholerae. Genomic DNA of bacterial strains was extracted and PCR was performed by using specific primers of E. coli and Vibrio cholerae.

RESULTS

The specific Mdh gene of E. coli was detected in 4 ballast water samples and the positive samples were analyzed by antisera methods for E. coli O157:H7. Results of antisera showed that there were 3 positive samples of O157:H7 serotype. The results of the PCR technique showed that the OmpW gene of Vibrio cholerae was negative for all positive culture samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies are highly recommended to monitor other aquatic organisms in ballast water to protect the marine environment.

Characterization of putative pathogenic Shewanella algae isolated from ballast water

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Shewanella algae is ubiquitous in marine-associated environments and has been increasingly recognized as a significant human pathogen that can cause serious infections mainly associated with exposure to seawater and ingestion of raw seafood. This study aimed to isolate and characterize S. algae from ballast water of ships berthed at Port Klang, Malaysia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ballast water was sampled from nine ships docked at Port Klang, Malaysia. The isolates were identified and characterized based on biochemical and enzymatic properties, 16S rRNA and gyrB sequencing, biofilm formation capability, and antibiotic susceptibility.

RESULTS

A total of four S. algae isolates were isolated from four ballast water samples tentatively name Sa-BW1, Sa-BW2, Sa-BW7, and Sa-BW8. All isolates showed positive reaction for cytochrome oxidase, catalase, high tolerance to NaCl (6% and 8%), ability to grow at 42°C, and on Salmonella-Shigella agar. The strains also exhibited b-hemolytic activity on sheep blood and human blood agar, positive reaction for lipase, protease, DNase and gelatinase, strong biofilm adherence capabilities and multiple antibiotic resistances against ampicillin, carbenicillin, cephalothin, colistin, novobiocin, oxacillin, penicillin, rifampicin, and tobramycin which suggested their potential pathogenicity.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the occurrence of putative pathogen S. algae in ballast water of ships docked at Malaysian port.

Effects of holding time on the diversity and composition of potential pathogenic bacteria in ship ballast water

Ballast water is a common vector for the transport of invasive species to new marine and aquatic environments. We used a metagenomics approach to examine the diversity and composition of potential pathogens communities in ballast water from ships in the route of China- Southeast Asia (CSEA). 16 kinds of potential pathogenic genus were detected in the ballast water. Interestingly, the ballast holding time had an important effect on the distribution of potential pathogens in ballast water. The abundance of Pseudoalteromonas in the longer ballast water holding time was less than the shorter ballast water holding time. Bacteroides had completely disappeared in the long ballast holding time samples. Moreover, The Shannon index of samples with longer ballast water holding time (1.80 ± 0.07) was higher than those with shorter ballast water holding time (0.83 ± 0.13). The potential pathogenic genus (Arcobacter, Aeromonas, Enterobacter and so on) lived in the long ballast holding time vessels had more diversity. Besides, the total suspended solids (TSS), total organic carbon (TOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) had a strong positive correlation with most potential pathogens in the ballast water, while the dissolved oxygen (DO) had a clear negative correlation with the potential pathogens in the longer ballast holding time samples. In conclusion, these results provide detailed descriptions of the characteristics of the potential pathogens present in ballast water, document significant potential pathogens diversity, and indicate the importance of ballast holding time for potential pathogens lived in ballast water.

Impacts of a shallow shipwreck on a coral reef: A case study from St. Brandon's Atoll, Mauritius, Indian Ocean

Shallow shipwrecks, can have severe ecological and toxicological impacts on coral atolls. In 2012, a tuna longliner ran aground on the reef crest of St Brandon's Atoll, Mauritius, broke up into three pieces which was moved by currents and storms into the lagoon. In the months following the grounding, the coral around the wreck became dead and black. Down-current from the wreck, a dense bloom of filamentous algae (Ulva sp.) attached to coral occurred. To determine the ecological effects of the wreck on the system, the marine biota around the wreck, in the algal bloom, and fish reference zones were counted in 2014. Metal concentrations in reference and affected coral was determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP/MS). A pronounced difference was seen in the metal concentration pattern between coral from the wreck- and algal zones, and the coral reference zone. While the wreck zone contained the highest abundance of fish, the fish reference zone had the highest species diversity but with fewer fish. We also counted eleven Critically Endangered hawksbill sea turtles Eretmochelys imbricata and significantly more sea cucumbers in the algal zone than the reference zones. The effects of shipwrecks on coral reefs must be considered a threat over periods of years and should be studied further.

Microbiome composition and implications for ballast water classification using machine learning

Ballast water is a vector for global translocation of microorganisms, and should be monitored to protect human and environmental health. This study utilizes high throughput sequencing (HTS) and machine learning to examine the bacterial and fungal microbiomes of ballast water to identify associations between 16S and 18S rRNA genes and the fungal ITS region. These sequencing regions were examined using the SILVA v132 and UNITE reference databases. The highest correlation was found between the communities in Silva_16S and UNITE_ITS (0.74). There was a higher proportion of positive inter-kingdom correlations than positive intra-kingdom interactions (p = 0.032). Understanding the reasons for this difference requires additional research under more controlled conditions. Finally, a machine learning model was used to examine the classification accuracy when using each sequencing region and reference database to identify ballast residence time and ballast sample location. There was significantly higher accuracy using SILVA (0.843) compared to UNITE (0.614) (p < 0.001). In the short term, future research with the goal of classifying ballast water samples based on location or ballast water residence time should be performed using the 16S rRNA gene and SILVA reference database. Research to curate other sequencing regions or the UNITE reference database in the aquatic ecosystem may improve the utility of these tools.

Metazoan parasite infracommunities of the dusky flounder (Syacium papillosum) as bioindicators of environmental conditions in the continental shelf of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Background

We assessed metrics of the metazoan parasite infracommunities of the dusky flounder (Syacium papillosum) as indicators of aquatic environmental health of the Yucatan Shelf (YS) prior to oil extraction. We sampled the dusky flounder and its parasites along the YS, mostly during the 2015 north wind season (November–April). Our aims were: (i) to determine whether the parasite infracommunity metrics of S. papillosum exhibit significant differences among YS subregions; (ii) to determine whether the probability of the occurrence of its parasite species and individuals were affected by environmental variables, nutrients, heavy metals and hydrocarbons at the seascape level; and (iii) to determine whether there were statistical differences between the parasite infracommunity metrics of S. papillosum from YS and those of Syacium gunteri from the Campeche Sound. Multivariate statistical analyses and generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to examine the potential statistical associations between the contaminants, environmental variables and parasite community metrics, and the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used to characterise the habitat’s suitability for the parasite’s probability of occurrence.

Results

We recovered 48 metazoan parasite species from 127 S. papillosum, with larval cestodes and digeneans being the most numerically-dominant. Multivariate analyses showed significant differences in parasite infracommunity metrics among Western YS, Mid YS and Caribbean subregions, with the latter being the richest in species but not in individuals. The GAM and MaxEnt results indicated a negative effect of top predators (e.g. sharks and rays) removal on parasite metrics. The parasite infracommunities of S. papillosum were twice as rich in the number of species and individuals as those reported for S. gunteri from the Campeche Sound.

Conclusions

The significant differences among subregions in parasite metrics were apparently due to the interruption of the Yucatan current during the north wind season. The fishing of top predators in combination with an influx of nutrients and hydrocarbons in low concentrations coincides with an increase in larval cestodes and digeneans in S. papillosum. The dusky flounder inhabits a region (YS) with a larger number of metazoan parasite species compared with those available for S. gunteri in the Campeche Sound, suggesting better environmental conditions for transmission in the YS.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3524-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Metabarcoding and machine learning analysis of environmental DNA in ballast water arriving to hub ports

While ballast water has long been linked to the global transport of invasive species, little is known about its microbiome. Herein, we used 16S rRNA gene sequencing and metabarcoding to perform the most comprehensive microbiological survey of ballast water arriving to hub ports to date. In total, we characterized 41 ballast, 20 harbor, and 6 open ocean water samples from four world ports (Shanghai, China; Singapore; Durban, South Africa; Los Angeles, California). In addition, we cultured Enterococcus and E. coli to evaluate adherence to International Maritime Organization standards for ballast discharge. Five of the 41 vessels - all of which were loaded in China - did not comply with standards for at least one indicator organism. Dominant bacterial taxa of ballast water at the class level were Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacteroidia. Ballast water samples were composed of significantly lower proportions of Oxyphotobacteria than either ocean or harbor samples. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) effect size (LEfSe) and machine learning were used to identify and test potential biomarkers for classifying sample types (ocean, harbor, ballast). Eight candidate biomarkers were used to achieve 81% (k nearest neighbors) to 88% (random forest) classification accuracy. Further research of these biomarkers could aid the development of techniques to rapidly assess ballast water origin.

Analysis of bacterial metagenomes from the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for pathogens detection

Little is known about the diversity of bacteria in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The aim of the study illustrated in this perspective was to search for the presence of bacterial pathogens in this ecosystem, using metagenomic data recently generated by the Mexican research group known as the Gulf of Mexico Research Consortium. Several genera of bacteria annotated as pathogens were detected in water and sediment marine samples. As expected, native and ubiquitous pathogenic bacteria genera such as Burkolderia, Halomonas, Pseudomonas, Shewanella and Vibrio were highly represented. Surprisingly, non-native genera of public health concern were also detected, including Borrelia, Ehrlichia, Leptospira, Mycobacterium, Mycoplasma, Salmonella, Staphylococcus, Streptococcus and Treponema. While there are no previous metagenomics studies of this environment, the potential influences of natural, anthropogenic and ecological factors on the diversity of putative pathogenic bacteria found in it are reviewed. The taxonomic annotation herein reported provides a starting point for an improved understanding of bacterial biodiversity in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It also represents a useful tool in public health as it may help identify infectious diseases associated with exposure to marine water and ingestion of fish or shellfish, and thus may be useful in predicting and preventing waterborne disease outbreaks.

Bacterial Diversity in Ships' Ballast Water, Ballast-Water Exchange, and Implications for Ship-Mediated Dispersal of Microorganisms

Using next-generation DNA sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, we analyzed the composition and diversity of bacterial assemblages in ballast water from tanks of 17 commercial ships arriving to Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA) following voyages in the North Atlantic Ocean. Amplicon sequencing analysis showed the heterogeneous assemblages were (1) dominated by Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and unclassified Bacteria; (2) temporally distinct (June vs August/September); and (3) highly fidelitous among replicate samples. Whether tanks were exchanged at sea or not, their bacterial assemblages differed from those of local, coastal water. Compositional data suggested at-sea exchange did not fully flush coastal Bacteria from all tanks; there were several instances of a genetic geographic signal. Quantitative PCR yielded no Escherichia coli and few instances of Vibrio species. Salinity, but not ballast-water age or temperature, contributed significantly to bacterial diversity. Whether anthropogenic mixing of marine Bacteria restructures their biogeography remains to be tested.

Diversity of bacteria in ships ballast water as revealed by next generation DNA sequencing

The bacterial diversity in ballast water from five general cargo ships calling at the Port of Houston was determined with ion semiconductor DNA sequencing (Ion Torrent PGM) of PCR amplified 16S rRNA genes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the composition of bacteria in ballast water did not resemble that of typical marine habitats or even open ocean waters where BWEs occur. The predominant group of bacteria in ships conducting BWEs was the Roseobacter clade within the Alphaproteobacteria. In contrast, Gammaproteobacteria were predominant in the ship that did not conduct a BWE. All the ships contained human, fish, and terrestrial plant pathogens as well as bacteria indicative of fecal or activated sludge contamination. Most of the 60 pathogens had not been detected in ballast water previously. Among these were the human pathogens Corynebacterium diptheriae and several Legionella species and the fish pathogens Francisella piscicida and Piscirickettsia salmonis.

Amplicon-Based Pyrosequencing Reveals High Diversity of Protistan Parasites in Ships' Ballast Water: Implications for Biogeography and Infectious Diseases

Ships' ballast water (BW) commonly moves macroorganisms and microorganisms across the world's oceans and along coasts; however, the majority of these microbial transfers have gone undetected. We applied high-throughput sequencing methods to identify microbial eukaryotes, specifically emphasizing the protistan parasites, in ships' BW collected from vessels calling to the Chesapeake Bay (Virginia and Maryland, USA) from European and Eastern Canadian ports. We utilized tagged-amplicon 454 pyrosequencing with two general primer sets, amplifying either the V4 or V9 domain of the small subunit (SSU) of the ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene complex, from total DNA extracted from water samples collected from the ballast tanks of bulk cargo vessels. We detected a diverse group of protistan taxa, with some known to contain important parasites in marine systems, including Apicomplexa (unidentified apicomplexans, unidentified gregarines, Cryptosporidium spp.), Dinophyta (Blastodinium spp., Euduboscquella sp., unidentified syndinids, Karlodinium spp., Syndinium spp.), Perkinsea (Parvilucifera sp.), Opisthokonta (Ichthyosporea sp., Pseudoperkinsidae, unidentified ichthyosporeans), and Stramenopiles (Labyrinthulomycetes). Further characterization of groups with parasitic taxa, consisting of phylogenetic analyses for four taxa (Cryptosporidium spp., Parvilucifera spp., Labyrinthulomycetes, and Ichthyosporea), revealed that sequences were obtained from both known and novel lineages. This study demonstrates that high-throughput sequencing is a viable and sensitive method for detecting parasitic protists when present and transported in the ballast water of ships. These data also underscore the potential importance of human-aided dispersal in the biogeography of these microbes and emerging diseases in the world's oceans.

Pandemic serotypes of Vibrio cholerae isolated from ships' ballast tanks and coastal waters: assessment of antibiotic resistance and virulence genes (tcpA and ctxA)

There is concern that ships' ballasting operations may disseminate Vibrio cholerae to ports throughout the world. Given evidence that the bacterium is indeed transported by ships, we isolated pandemic serotypes O1 and O139 from ballast tanks and characterized them with respect to antibiotic resistance and virulence genes ctxA and tcpA. We carried out concurrent studies with V. cholerae isolated from coastal waters. Of 284 isolates, 30 were serotype O1 and 59 were serotype O139. These serotypes were overrepresented in ballast tanks relative to the coastal waters sampled. All locations, whether coastal waters or ballast tanks, yielded samples from which serotype O1, O139, or both were isolated. There were three groups among the 62 isolates for which antibiotic characterization was conclusive: those exhibiting β-lactamase activity and resistance to at least one of the 12 antibiotics tested; those negative for β-lactamase but having antibiotic resistance; those negative for β-lactamase and registering no antibiotic resistance. When present, antibiotic resistance in nearly all cases was to ampicillin; resistance to multiple antibiotics was uncommon. PCR assays revealed that none of the isolates contained the ctxA gene and only two isolates, one O139 and one O1, contained the tcpA gene; both isolates originated from ballast water. These results support the bacteriological regulations proposed by the International Maritime Association for discharged ballast water.

Shipboard trials of an ozone-based ballast water treatment system

Legislation introduced by the United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) has focused primarily on standards defining successful treatments designed to remove invasive species entrained in ballast water. An earlier shipboard study found that ozone introduced into salt water ballast resulted in the formation of bromine compounds, measured as total residual oxidants (TRO) that were toxic to both bacteria and plankton. However, the diffuser system employed to deliver ozone to the ballast water tanks resulted in patchiness in TRO distribution and toxicity to entrained organisms. In this follow-up study, the shipboard diffuser system was replaced by a single Venturi-type injection system designed to deliver a more homogeneous biocide distribution. Within-tank variability in TRO levels and associated toxicity to zooplankton, phytoplankton and marine bacteria was measured via a matrix of tubes deployed to sample different locations in treated and untreated (control) tanks. Three trials were conducted aboard the oil tanker S/T Prince William Sound in the Strait of Juan de Fuca off Port Angeles, Washington State, USA, between June and December 2007. Mortalities of plankton and bacteria and oxidant concentrations were recorded for treated and untreated ballast water up to 3days following treatment, and residual toxicity beyond this period was measured by bioassay of standard test organisms. Results indicated uniform compliance with current IMO standards, but only partial compliance with other existing and pending ballast water legislation.

Climate change and the geographic distribution of infectious diseases

Our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the spread of infectious diseases is in its infancy. Numerous, and in some cases conflicting, predictions have been developed, principally based on models of biological processes or mapping of current and historical disease statistics. Current debates on whether climate change, relative to socioeconomic determinants, will be a major influence on human disease distributions are useful to help identify research needs but are probably artificially polarized. We have at least identified many of the critical geophysical constraints, transport opportunities, biotic requirements for some disease systems, and some of the socioeconomic factors that govern the process of migration and establishment of parasites and pathogens. Furthermore, we are beginning to develop a mechanistic understanding of many of these variables at specific sites. Better predictive understanding will emerge in the coming years from analyses regarding how these variables interact with each other.