A high-resolution real-time forecasting system for predicting the fate of oil spills in the Strait of Bonifacio (western Mediterranean Sea)

Development and testing of a 2D offshore oil spill modeling tool (OSMT) supported by an effective calibration method

An Oil Spill Modeling Tool (OSMT) has been developed in this study to predict the transport and fate of oil spills resulting from surface releases. Particularly, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence method is adopted as a performance metric for the first time to formulate a calibration framework for spill trajectory prediction (STP) from the Lagrangian transport model (LTM). By finding the candidate with minimal KL divergences from modeling scenarios using designed parameter combinations, the prediction discrepancy between simulated trajectories of the LTM and oil slicks detected from satellite images is reduced. The developed approach has been evaluated through a comparison analysis between OSMT and Operational Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. Subsequently, a real case study is conducted to examine the applicability and effectiveness of the OSMT. The study results indicate that OSMT can provide reliable spill trajectory simulations, and the KL divergence-based calibration method is effective in calibrating the oil spill LTM.

Observing and modeling long-term persistence of P. noctiluca in coupled complementary marine systems (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea and Messina Strait)

In the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Messina (MS) is a very peculiar area, connecting highly different regions and representing a privileged observatory for an early comprehension and assessment of ecosystems shifts. It is hypothesized that the outbreaks observed near the coast of many sites in the Mediterranean Sea may be the result of transport of permanent populations of P. noctiluca in pelagic waters to the coast, caused by specific hydrodynamic conditions. By both visual observations and numerical experiments our objective is twofold: (A) to help clarify whether the basin of the Aeolian Islands Archipelago (AIA), in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea (STS), may be the site from which large populations of P. noctiluca are transported to the MS, and (B) to evaluate whether the upwelling turbulent system of the MS can be an energetic opportunity for this species. It should offer a rich habitat without jeopardizing the overall survival of the population, that is subject to stranding due to strong currents. Although very different, the two involved ecosystems (AIA and MS ) are complementary for the success of Pelagia noctiluca life cycle. Outputs obtained by coupling the 3D hydrodynamic model (SHYFEM) with a Lagrangian particle tracking model support the hypothesis of a connectivity between these two ecosystems, particularly in the first half of the year, indicating the coastal areas around the AIA as potential optimal source location for Pelagia larval stages. We support the very attractive hypothesis that two connected systems exist, the former one favours Pelagia's reproduction and acts as a nursery and the latter favours its growth due to higher productivity. We speculate that the reproductive population of the AIA is not permanent, but is renewed every year by individuals who have fed and quickly grown in the MS and who are passively transported by downwelling along canyon "corridors".

Water Circulation and Transport Time Scales in the Beagle Channel, Southernmost Tip of South America

The Beagle Channel is a long and narrow interoceanic passage within the Tierra del Fuego archipelago in the southernmost tip of South America. A high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model based on the finite elements method was applied to investigate the residual circulation, water fluxes and transport time scales inside this channel. Numerical solutions were analyzed at seasonal time scale and the model results compared with observed ocean data. The circulation pattern is characterized by a west-to-east residual flow with low intensity and low seasonal variability. The water fluxes through the channel were estimated to be, on average, around 12,700 m3/s, with inflow through its western entrance and eastwards outflow mainly through the Mackinlay Strait. The water residence times vary seasonally with basin averages between 36 and 43 days and maximum values between 53 and 95 days. The results provide an overview of the hydrodynamics and water residence times in the Beagle Channel, a unique ecosystem threatened by recent anthropogenic pressures and climate change.

State of the Simulation of Mesoscale Winds in the Mediterranean and Opportunities for Improvements

The Mediterranean region is a densely populated and economically relevant area with complex orography including mountain ranges, islands, and straits. In combination with pressure gradients, this creates many mesoscale wind systems that cause, e.g., wind gusts and wildfire risk in the Mediterranean. This article reviews the recent state of the science of several mesoscale winds in the Mediterranean and associated processes. Previous work, including case studies on several time ranges and resolutions, as well as studies on these winds under future climate conditions, is discussed. Simulations with grid spacings of 25 to 50 km can reproduce winds driven by large-scale pressure patterns such as Mistral, Tramontane, and Etesians. However, these simulations struggle with the correct representation of winds channeled in straits and mountain gaps and around islands. Grid spacings of 1–3 km are certainly necessary to resolve these small-scale features. The smaller grid spacings are widely used in case studies, but not yet in simulations over large areas and long periods, which also could help to understand the interaction between small-scale phenomena in separate locations. Furthermore, by far not all Mediterranean straits, islands, and mountain gaps were studied in-depth and many interesting Mediterranean small-scale winds still need to be studied.

Large-Scale Mercury Dispersion at Sea: Modelling a Multi-Hazard Case Study from Augusta Bay (Central Mediterranean Sea)

This contribution discusses an example of potential multi-hazard effects resulting from an earthquake in a highly seismogenic area of the Mediterranean Sea, the Augusta Bay, which presents high levels of contamination in sediments and seawater, due particularly to high-concentrations of mercury as a result of a long-term industrial exploitation. In particular, a high-resolution hydrodynamic and transport model is used to calculate the effects of enhanced mercury spreading in the open sea after significant damage and collapse of the artificial damming system confining the embayment where a very high concentration of Hg occurs in seafloor sediments and seawater. Coupling high-resolution 3D dynamic circulation modelling and sediment–seawater Hg fluxes calculated using the HR3DHG diffusion–reaction model for both inorganic and organic Hg species offers a valuable approach to simulating and estimating the effects of spatial dispersion of this contaminant due to unpredictable hazard events in coastal systems, with the potential attendant enhanced effects on the marine ecosystem. The simulated scenario definitely suggests that a combination of natural and anthropogenic multi-hazards calls for a thorough re-thinking of risk management in marine areas characterised by significant levels of contamination and where a deep understanding of the biogeochemical dynamics of pollutants does not cover all the aspects of danger for the environment.

Environmental vulnerability to oil spills in Itapuã State Park, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: An approach using two-dimensional numerical simulation

The growing use of coastal areas for different economic purposes is responsible for increasing pollution by hydrocarbons in marine environments. As a consequence of these activities, accidents during fuel extraction, transport, and storage can occur, causing intense environmental degradation. Numerical modeling of the trajectory of oil stains becomes an important tool with low operational costs, providing powerful support to the government agencies in charge of risk management associated with possible oil accidents, by helping to generate scenarios and strategies for containment and cleaning of affected environments. In this sense, the aim of this study is to estimate environmental vulnerability to oil at beaches located in the Itapuã State Park (PEI), a Protection Conservation Unit. This work focused on describing a methodology to estimate the vulnerability of coastal areas, with emphasis on the fact that the study was carried out in a closed environment. For that, an approach was used based on the integration of: (1) an intrinsic variable to the environment; (2) a dynamic variable determined through diesel oil surface dispersion scenarios. Four hypothetical accident scenarios with 20 m³ of diesel oil were simulated in 2018, during five days of simulations with instant dumping in the navigation channel of the local waterway near the PEI. The results suggest the forcing of the field of intensity and direction of the local winds as preponderant for the dynamics of movement and structure of the spots, with the zonal and meridional components of the fields of superficial currents acting in this process as a secondary factor. The study showed that all beaches in the park are susceptible to contact with oil throughout the simulated year, with Pombas Beach, Pedreira Beach, and Onça Beach being affected in all simulated scenarios, which classifies them as very high vulnerability and defines them as priority protection areas.

Experimental Study on the Synergistic Effect between Evaporation Weathering and Emulsification of Oil Spills

First, a range of experiments using a stainless steel shallow plate in a thermostatic oscillator were carried out to simulate evaporation weathering of oil spills under different temperatures, wind velocities, oil film thicknesses, and wave conditions. The information on influencing factors of evaporation weathering could be obtained. Then, evaporation experiments of four oil samples with three emulsification states were conducted, and the effect of emulsification on evaporation of oil spills was investigated. The characteristics of each operation were described, mass loss characteristics of oil spills with time were plotted, and the effects of evaporative weathering processes under different conditions were quantitatively compared. A high-precision visualization system was utilized to simulate experimentally oil spill emulsification processes, and the effect of evaporative weathering on emulsification weathering of oil spills was investigated. The results of evaporation experiments showed that the increase of temperature could promote the evaporative weathering. The thin film thickness was beneficial to evaporation of oil spills. The increment of the wind speed could promote evaporation behavior when the wind velocity was small, but the increase of velocity had little effect on oil evaporation when the wind speed was large. Wave conditions had little effect on oil evaporation under the conditions of this experiment. The effect of different emulsification states on oil evaporation was not consistent. Unstable or semistable water-in-oil emulsions inhibited oil evaporation at the initial stage of evaporation, but water evaporation would increase oil-phase evaporation with the destruction of the emulsion structure. Stable water-in-oil emulsions inhibited evaporation weathering. The evaporation weathering of oil was conducive to the emulsification of oil.

Accident and pollution risk assessment for hazardous cargo in a port environment

The catastrophic environmental, life and monetary losses concomitant to the hazardous cargo accidents have remained a matter of critical concern for the maritime transportation officials. The factors that instigate these accidents while dealing with hazardous cargo in a port environment requires rigorous analysis and evaluation, which still remains in its infancy. In accord to these prevailing issues, this study focusses on the assessment of multifactor risks associated with the dealing of hazardous cargos inside a port. The methodology adopted is the amalgamation of expert judgment and literature review for the identification of factors and developing their causal relationship, while Bayesian Network (BN) for the inference, which was based on 348 past accident reports from the year 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that under normal circumstances, the probability of an accident with considerable consequences is 59.8, where human and management were found to be the highest contributing factors. Setting evidence at the environment and pollution accident to occur, the incidence probability of the "management" is raised by 7.06%. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most critical factors for the hazardous cargo accident. This study reveals that in order to evade the hazardous cargo accidents and curtail severity of the consequences, the port authorities, concerned government departments and other related institutions should pay specific attention to the qualification, training and attitude of the involved workforce. Moreover, the development and implementation of stringent safety protocols was also revealed to have critical prominence. This study holds practical vitality for enhancing safety and mitigating risks associated to hazardous cargo dealing in a port.

The Management of the Beach-Cast Seagrass Wracks—A Numerical Modelling Approach

Seagrass wrack are commonly found on the beach face of the sandy shore all around the world and often persists in situ during the whole year, favouring the emergence of conflicts for the use of the sandy coasts for bathing or for other recreational purposes. As a consequence, these deposits are often removed from the beach during the summer months, temporary stocked, and relocated on the shore face in the next autumn or winter season. The selection of the sites on the shoreline where the leaves should be released before the storms season is often an issue, considering the optimization needs between the transportation costs and the oceanographic features of the dumping site. In this study, a numerical approach was proposed to identify the most suitable areas for the autumnal repositioning of the seagrass wracks for two beaches of Sardinia, an island located in the Western Mediterranean Sea where Posidonia oceanica (L. Delile, 1813) is the most widespread seagrass species. The method is based on the use of hydrodynamic, wave, and particle tracking models and provides important indications useful for the management of this type of practice that can be extended to all different type of beaches along the Mediterranean coasts.

The challenge of managing the commercial harvesting of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus: advanced approaches are required

Sea urchins act as a keystone herbivore in marine coastal ecosystems, regulating macrophyte density, which offers refuge for multiple species. In the Mediterranean Sea, both the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and fish preying on it are highly valuable target species for artisanal fisheries. As a consequence of the interactions between fish, sea urchins and macrophyte, fishing leads to trophic disorders with detrimental consequences for biodiversity and fisheries. In Sardinia (Western Mediterranean Sea), regulations for sea urchin harvesting have been in place since the mid 90s. However, given the important ecological role of P. lividus, the single-species fishery management may fail to take into account important ecosystem interactions. Hence, a deeper understanding of population dynamics, their dependance on environmental constraints and multispecies interactions may help to achieve long-term sustainable use of this resource. This work aims to highlight how sea urchin population structure varies spatially in relation to local environmental constraints and species interactions, with implications for their management. The study area (Sinis Peninsula, West Sardinia, Italy) that includes a Marine Reserve was divided into five sectors. These display combinations of the environmental constraints influencing sea urchin population dynamics, namely type of habitat (calcareous rock, granite, basalt, patchy and continuous meadows of Posidonia oceanica), average bottom current speed and predatory fish abundance. Size-frequency distribution of sea urchins under commercial size (<5 cm diameter size) assessed during the period from 2004 to 2007, before the population collapse in 2010, were compared for sectors and types of habitat. Specific correlations between recruits (0–1 cm diameter size) and bottom current speeds and between middle-sized sea urchins (2–5 cm diameter size) and predatory fish abundance were assessed. Parameters representing habitat spatial configuration (patch density, perimeter-to-area ratio, mean patch size, largest patch index, interspersion/juxtaposition index) were calculated and their influence on sea urchin density assessed. The density of sea urchins under commercial size was significantly higher in calcareous rock and was positively and significantly influenced by the density and average size of the rocky habitat patches. Recruits were significantly abundant in rocky habitats, while they were almost absent in P. oceanica meadows. The density of middle-sized sea urchins was more abundant in calcareous rock than in basalt, granite or P. oceanica. High densities of recruits resulted significantly correlated to low values of average bottom current speed, while a negative trend between the abundance of middle-sized sea urchins and predatory fish was found. Our results point out the need to account for the environmental constraints influencing local sea urchin density in fisheries management.

Surface Currents Derived from SAR Doppler Processing: An Analysis over the Naples Coastal Region in South Italy

Several studies have shown the capabilities of Synthetic Aperture Radar to map sea currents in ocean regions mainly characterized by large flows. We consider the well known method based on the analysis of the Doppler Centroid. The Doppler, as, in general, the scattering from the sea, is sensitive to several phenomena, occurring between the upper ocean and atmospheric boundary layers. To investigate such phenomena, we considered the combined use of both ENVISAT calibrated amplitude and Doppler data in conjunction with hindcast wind information provided by atmospheric models as well as Wind and Doppler Geophysical Model Functions (W/D-GMF) developed, in the literature, for C-Band systems. This integrated analysis for the interpretation of the Doppler surface currents measurements was carried out on a case study located in the Mediterranean Sea which is characterized by a general low circulation regime: specifically, the coastal region around the city of Naples. In this case study, we show that generally, wind plays a direct significant role in the observed Doppler surface current. The availability of an oceanographic numerical model for one of the analyzed cases also allowed us to attempt to interpret the effect of the typical thermohaline circulation pattern on the Doppler anomaly.

Mid-long term oil spill forecast based on logistic regression modelling of met-ocean forcings

Past major oil spill disasters, such as the Prestige or the Deepwater Horizon accidents, have shown that spilled oil may drift across the ocean for months before being controlled or reaching the coast. However, existing oil spill modelling systems can only provide short-term trajectory simulations, being limited by the typical met-ocean forecast time coverage. In this paper, we propose a methodology for mid-long term (1-6 months) probabilistic predictions of oil spill trajectories, based on a combination of data mining techniques, statistical pattern modelling and probabilistic Lagrangian simulations. Its main features are logistic regression modelling of wind and current patterns and a probabilistic trajectory map simulation. The proposed technique is applied to simulate the trajectory of drifting buoys deployed during the Prestige accident in the Bay of Biscay. The benefits of the proposed methodology with respect to existing oil spill statistical simulation techniques are analysed.

Oil Spill Scenarios in the Kotor Bay: Results from High Resolution Numerical Simulations

A major threat for marine and coastal environment comes from oil spill accidents. Such events have a great impact on both the ecosystem and on the economy, and the risk increases over time due to increasing ship traffic in many sensitive areas. In recent years, numerical simulation of oil spills has become an affordable tool for the analysis of the risk and for the preparation of contingency plans. However, in coastal areas, the complexity of the bathymetry and of the orography requires an adequate resolution of sea and wind flows. For this reason, we present, to the best of the author’s knowledge, the first study on the subject adopting Large Eddy Simulations for both the low-atmosphere and sea dynamics in order to provide highly-resolved marine surface current and wind stress to the oil slick model, within a one-way coupling procedure. Such approach is applied to the relevant case of Kotor Bay (UNESCO heritage since 1979), in Montenegro, which is a semi-closed basin surrounded by mountains that is subject to an intense ship traffic for touristic purposes. Oil spill spots are tracked along ship paths, in two wind scenarios.

An Operational Marine Oil Spill Forecasting Tool for the Management of Emergencies in the Italian Seas

Oil extraction platforms are potential sources of oil spills. For this reason, an oil spill forecasting system was set up to support the management of emergencies from the oil fields in the Italian seas. The system provides ready-to-use products to the relevant response agencies and optimizes the anti-pollution resources by assessing hazards and risks related to this issue. The forecasting system covers seven working oil platforms in the Sicily Channel and middle/low Adriatic Sea. It is composed of a numerical chain involving nested ocean models from regional to coastal spatial scales and an oil spill model. The system provides two online services, one automatic and a second dedicated to possible real emergencies or exercises on risk preparedness and responding. The automatic service produces daily short-term simulations of hypothetical oil spill dispersion, transport, and weathering processes from each extraction platform. Products, i.e., risk maps, animations, and a properly called bulletin, are available on a dedicated web-portal. The hazard estimations are computed by performing geo-statistical analysis on the daily forecasts database. The second service is activated in near-real-time producing oil spill simulations for the following 48 h.

Using a genetic algorithm to improve oil spill prediction

The performance of oil spill models is strongly influenced by multiple parameters. In this study, we explored the ability of a genetic algorithm (GA) to determine optimal parameters without the need for time-consuming manual attempts. An evaluation function integrating the percentage of coincidence between the predicted polluted area and the observed spill area was proposed for measuring the performance of a Lagrangian oil particle model. To maximise the objective function, the oil spill was run numerous times with continuously optimised parameters. After many generations, the GA effectively reduced discrepancies between model results and observations of a real oil spill. Subsequent validation indicated that the oil spill model predicted oil slick patterns with reasonable accuracy when equipped with optimal parameters. Furthermore, multiple objective optimisation for observations at different times contributed to better model performance.

Risk assessment of oil spills in the Chinese Bohai Sea for prevention and readiness

Oil spill accidents occur with increasing frequency in the Chinese Bohai Sea because of the presence of extensive number of oil platforms and oil pipelines the Chinese Bohai region. An appropriate risk assessment for oil spill prevention and readiness is necessary. Risk assessment for the entire Chinese Bohai Sea based on a quantitative method is proposed. We created a hypothetical simulation of oil spill trajectories based on an oil spill model for 28 oil platforms in the Chinese Bohai region in 2010. Then, we mapped a risk index in the study areas based on a combination of oil spill trajectories and shoreline susceptibility data. Five high-risk areas were identified in the entire Chinese Bohai Sea. Detailed suggestions for prevention and readiness are described here. These results can help in developing a risk assessment of oil spills in the Chinese Bohai Sea and serve as a useful analytic tool for slick-related emergencies.

Hydrodynamic patterns favouring sea urchin recruitment in coastal areas: A Mediterranean study case

In invertebrate fisheries, sea urchin harvesting continues to grow with dramatic consequences for benthic ecosystems. The identification of areas with a marked natural recruitment and the mechanisms regulating it is crucial for the conservation of benthic communities and for planning the sustainable harvesting. This study evaluates the spatial distribution and density of recruits of the edible sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus along the Sinis + Peninsula (Sardinia) and explores its significant relationships with the local oceanographic features. Our results reveal that recruitment is favoured in areas with slow currents and high levels of confinement and trapping of the water masses. Analysis of the residual circulation indicates that the presence of local standing circulation structures promotes the sea urchin recruitment process. Our findings emphasize the importance of managing local sea urchin harvesting as a system of populations with their demographic influence mainly dependent on the most important ecological driver that is the recruitment.

Development of a statistical oil spill model for risk assessment

To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity.

Modeling oil spill trajectory in Bosphorus for contingency planning

Bosphorus, is a strongly driven international maritime route between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara and is a high risk area for oil spill due to the heavy tanker traffic. In this study an oil spill trajectory model was developed for investigating the potential risks of accidental oil spills in Bosphorus. The proposed oil spill trajectory model combines the surface current velocity data obtained from a calibrated hydrodynamic model with the advection, spreading, and evaporation processes that are effective only on the sea surface and dominant for a couple of hours after the oil spill. Model simulations revealed that spilled oil reaches the shoreline on both sides of Bosphorus in <4h following the spill. We proposed locations for emergency intervention stations in Bosphorus which can be used to devise a suitable oil spill contingency plan to keep the adverse impacts of oil spills at minimum.

A new method to calibrate Lagrangian model with ASAR images for oil slick trajectory

Since Lagrangian model coefficients vary with different conditions, it is necessary to calibrate the model to obtain optimal coefficient combination for special oil spill accident. This paper focuses on proposing a new method to calibrate Lagrangian model with time series of Envisat ASAR images. Oil slicks extracted from time series images form a detected trajectory of special oil slick. Lagrangian model is calibrated by minimizing the difference between simulated trajectory and detected trajectory. mean center position distance difference (MCPD) and rotation difference (RD) of Oil slicks' or particles' standard deviational ellipses (SDEs) are calculated as two evaluations. The two parameters are taken to evaluate the performance of Lagrangian transport model with different coefficient combinations. This method is applied to Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The simulation result with calibrated model agrees well with related satellite observations. It is suggested the new method is effective to calibrate Lagrangian model.

A high-resolution operational forecast system for oil spill response in Belfast Lough

This paper presents a high-resolution operational forecast system for providing support to oil spill response in Belfast Lough. The system comprises an operational oceanographic module coupled to an oil spill forecast module that is integrated in a user-friendly web application. The oceanographic module is based on Delft3D model which uses daily boundary conditions and meteorological forcing obtained from COPERNICUS and from the UK Meteorological Office. Downscaled currents and meteorological forecasts are used to provide short-term oil spill fate and trajectory predictions at local scales. Both components of the system are calibrated and validated with observational data, including ADCP data, sea level, temperature and salinity measurements and drifting buoys released in the study area. The transport model is calibrated using a novel methodology to obtain the model coefficients that optimize the numerical simulations. The results obtained show the good performance of the system and its capability for oil spill forecast.

Modelling of oil spills in confined maritime basins: The case for early response in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Oil spill models are combined with bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data to model a series of oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. A total of 104 oil spill simulations, computed for 11 different locations in the Levantine Basin, show that oil slicks will reach the coast of Cyprus in four (4) to seven (7) days in summer conditions. Oil slick trajectories are controlled by prevailing winds and current eddies. Based on these results, we support the use of chemical dispersants in the very few hours after large accidental oil spills. As a corollary, we show shoreline susceptibility to vary depending on: a) differences in coastline morphology and exposure to wave action, b) the existence of uplifted wave-cut platforms, coastal lagoons and pools, and c) the presence of tourist and protected environmental areas. Mitigation work should take into account the relatively high susceptibility of parts of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Assessment of oil slick hazard and risk at vulnerable coastal sites

This work gives an assessment of the hazard faced by Sicily coasts regarding potential offshore surface oil spill events and provides a risk assessment for Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Protection Areas (SPA). A lagrangian module, coupled with a high resolution finite element three dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to track the ensemble of a large number of surface trajectories followed by particles released over 6 selected areas located inside the Sicily Channel. The analysis was carried out under multiple scenarios of meteorological conditions. Oil evaporation, oil weathering, and shore stranding are also considered. Seasonal hazard maps for different stranding times and seasonal risk maps were then produced for the whole Sicilian coastline. The results highlight that depending on the meteo-marine conditions, particles can reach different areas of the Sicily coast, including its northern side, and illustrate how impacts can be greatly reduced through prompt implementation of mitigation strategies.

Environmental risk analysis of oil handling facilities in port areas. Application to Tarragona harbor (NE Spain)

Diffuse pollution from oil spills is a widespread problem in port areas (as a result of fuel supply, navigation and loading/unloading activities). This article presents a method to assess the environmental risk of oil handling facilities in port areas. The method is based on (i) identification of environmental hazards, (ii) characterization of meteorological and oceanographic conditions, (iii) characterization of environmental risk scenarios, and (iv) assessment of environmental risk. The procedure has been tested by application to the Tarragona harbor. The results show that the method is capable of representing (i) specific local pollution cases (i.e., discriminating between products and quantities released by a discharge source), (ii) oceanographic and meteorological conditions (selecting a representative subset data), and (iii) potentially affected areas in probabilistic terms. Accordingly, it can inform the design of monitoring plans to study and control the environmental impact of these facilities, as well as the design of contingency plans.

Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Development and application of an oil spill model with wave-current interactions in coastal areas

The present paper focuses on developing a numerical oil spill model that incorporates the full three-dimensional wave-current interactions for a better representation of the spilled oil transport mechanics in complicated coastal environments. The incorporation of surface wave effects is not only imposing a traditional drag coefficient formulation at the free surface, but also the 3D momentum equations are adjusted to include the impact of the vertically dependent radiation stresses on the currents. Based on the current data from SELFE and wave data from SWAN, the oil spill model utilizes oil particle method to predict the trajectory of individual droplets and the oil concentration. Compared with the observations in Dalian New Port oil spill event, the developed model taking into account wave-current coupling administers to giving better conformity than the one without. The comparisons demonstrates that 3D radiation stress impacts the spill dynamics drastically near the sea surface and along the coastline, while having less impact in deeper water.