The application of HIV molecular epidemiology to public health

+"Evaluation of ELITE InGenius® integrative system for detection, quantification and monitoring of HIV-1 RNA in Cerebrospinal Fluid."

INTRODUCTION

Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is effectively suppressed in the blood by the Antiretroviral Therapy in people living with HIV, but in rare cases can be present in some tissues and body fluids. In recent years, integrated systems were validated for detecting HIV-1 in plasma or serum. but not in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). We evaluated the performance of ELITE InGenius® in comparison with the cobas® in this area.

METHODS

To test the diagnostic accuracy of the HIV-1 ELITe MGB® kit on CSF samples, we tested CSF samples previously characterised with the cobras® HIV1 test. Archived CSF samples were also spiked with serial dilutions of the 4th WHO International Standard for HIV-1 NAT and assays and tested to assess the repeatability and reproducibility of the ELITechGroup assay.

RESULTS

The HIV-1 ELITe MGB® Kit confirmed all the HIV-1 negative CSF samples from patients HIV positive in plasma and from non-HIV1 patients. All the CSF samples that were HIV-1 positive by the cobas®, were confirmed positive by the ELITe InGenius®. Concordance across the methods was also observed when processing the CSF dilutions spiked at medium-low titre, mimicking HIV-1 low-load infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The two systems were equivalent in the detection and quantification of HIV-1 RNA in CSF samples.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in newly diagnosed individuals in Italy over the period 2015-21

BACKGROUND

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is still a critical aspect for the management of individuals living with HIV-1. Thus, its evaluation is crucial to optimize HIV care.

METHODS

Overall, 2386 HIV-1 protease/reverse transcriptase and 1831 integrase sequences from drug-naïve individuals diagnosed in north and central Italy between 2015 and 2021 were analysed. TDR was evaluated over time. Phylogeny was generated by maximum likelihood. Factors associated with TDR were evaluated by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Individuals were mainly male (79.1%) and Italian (56.2%), with a median (IQR) age of 38 (30-48). Non-B infected individuals accounted for 44.6% (N = 1065) of the overall population and increased over time (2015-2021, from 42.1% to 51.0%, P = 0.002). TDR prevalence to any class was 8.0% (B subtype 9.5% versus non-B subtypes 6.1%, P = 0.002) and remained almost constant over time. Overall, 300 transmission clusters (TCs) involving 1155 (48.4%) individuals were identified, with a similar proportion in B and non-infected individuals (49.7% versus 46.8%, P = 0.148). A similar prevalence of TDR among individuals in TCs and those out of TCs was found (8.2% versus 7.8%, P = 0.707).By multivariable analysis, subtypes A, F, and CFR02_AG were negatively associated with TDR. No other factors, including being part of TCs, were significantly associated with TDR.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2015 and 2021, TDR prevalence in Italy was 8% and remained almost stable over time. Resistant strains were found circulating regardless of being in TCs, but less likely in non-B subtypes. These results highlight the importance of a continuous surveillance of newly diagnosed individuals for evidence of TDR to inform clinical practice.

AUTO-TUNE: selecting the distance threshold for inferring HIV transmission clusters

Molecular surveillance of viral pathogens and inference of transmission networks from genomic data play an increasingly important role in public health efforts, especially for HIV-1. For many methods, the genetic distance threshold used to connect sequences in the transmission network is a key parameter informing the properties of inferred networks. Using a distance threshold that is too high can result in a network with many spurious links, making it difficult to interpret. Conversely, a distance threshold that is too low can result in a network with too few links, which may not capture key insights into clusters of public health concern. Published research using the HIV-TRACE software package frequently uses the default threshold of 0.015 substitutions/site for HIV pol gene sequences, but in many cases, investigators heuristically select other threshold parameters to better capture the underlying dynamics of the epidemic they are studying. Here, we present a general heuristic scoring approach for tuning a distance threshold adaptively, which seeks to prevent the formation of giant clusters. We prioritize the ratio of the sizes of the largest and the second largest cluster, maximizing the number of clusters present in the network. We apply our scoring heuristic to outbreaks with different characteristics, such as regional or temporal variability, and demonstrate the utility of using the scoring mechanism's suggested distance threshold to identify clusters exhibiting risk factors that would have otherwise been more difficult to identify. For example, while we found that a 0.015 substitutions/site distance threshold is typical for US-like epidemics, recent outbreaks like the CRF07_BC subtype among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China have been found to have a lower optimal threshold of 0.005 to better capture the transition from injected drug use (IDU) to MSM as the primary risk factor. Alternatively, in communities surrounding Lake Victoria in Uganda, where there has been sustained heterosexual transmission for many years, we found that a larger distance threshold is necessary to capture a more risk factor-diverse population with sparse sampling over a longer period of time. Such identification may allow for more informed intervention action by respective public health officials.

AUTO-TUNE: SELECTING THE DISTANCE THRESHOLD FOR INFERRING HIV TRANSMISSION CLUSTERS

Molecular surveillance of viral pathogens and inference of transmission networks from genomic data play an increasingly important role in public health efforts, especially for HIV-1. For many methods, the genetic distance threshold used to connect sequences in the transmission network is a key parameter informing the properties of inferred networks. Using a distance threshold that is too high can result in a network with many spurious links, making it difficult to interpret. Conversely, a distance threshold that is too low can result in a network with too few links, which may not capture key insights into clusters of public health concern. Published research using the HIV-TRACE software package frequently uses the default threshold of 0.015 substitutions/site for HIV pol gene sequences, but in many cases, investigators heuristically select other threshold parameters to better capture the underlying dynamics of the epidemic they are studying. Here, we present a general heuristic scoring approach for tuning a distance threshold adaptively, which seeks to prevent the formation of giant clusters. We prioritize the ratio of the sizes of the largest and the second largest cluster, maximizing the number of clusters present in the network. We apply our scoring heuristic to outbreaks with different characteristics, such as regional or temporal variability, and demonstrate the utility of using the scoring mechanism's suggested distance threshold to identify clusters exhibiting risk factors that would have otherwise been more difficult to identify. For example, while we found that a 0.015 substitutions/site distance threshold is typical for US-like epidemics, recent outbreaks like the CRF07_BC subtype among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China have been found to have a lower optimal threshold of 0.005 to better capture the transition from injected drug use (IDU) to MSM as the primary risk factor. Alternatively, in communities surrounding Lake Victoria in Uganda, where there has been sustained hetero-sexual transmission for many years, we found that a larger distance threshold is necessary to capture a more risk factor-diverse population with sparse sampling over a longer period of time. Such identification may allow for more informed intervention action by respective public health officials.

The Origin, Epidemiology, and Phylodynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 CRF47_BF

CRF47_BF is a circulating recombinant form (CRF) of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), the etiological agent of AIDS. CRF47_BF represents one of 19 CRFx_BFs and has a geographic focus in Spain, where it was first identified in 2010. Since its discovery, CRF47_BF has expanded considerably in Spain, predominantly through heterosexual contact (∼56% of the infections). Little is known, however, about the origin and diversity of this CRF or its epidemiological correlates, as very few samples have been available so far. This study conducts a phylogenetic analysis with representatives of all CRFx_BF sequence types along with HIV-1 M Group subtypes to validate that the CRF47_BF sequences share a unique evolutionary history. The CRFx_BF sequences cluster into a single, not well supported, clade that includes their dominant parent subtypes (B and F). This clade also includes subtype D and excludes sub-subtype F2. However, the CRF47_BF sequences all share a most recent common ancestor. Further analysis of this clade couples CRF47_BF protease-reverse transcriptase sequences and epidemiological data from an additional 87 samples collected throughout Spain, as well as additional CRF47_BF database sequences from Brazil and Spain to investigate the origin and phylodynamics of CRF47_BF. The Spanish region with the highest proportion of CRF47_BF samples in the data set was the Basque Country (43.7%) with Navarre next highest at 19.5%. We include in our analysis epidemiological data on host sex, mode of transmission, time of collection, and geographic region. The phylodynamic analysis indicates that CRF47_BF originated in Brazil around 1999–2000 and spread to Spain from Brazil in 2002–2003. The virus spread rapidly throughout Spain with an increase in population size from 2011 to 2015 and leveling off more recently. Three strongly supported clusters associated with Spanish regions (Basque Country, Navarre, and Aragon), together comprising 60.8% of the Spanish samples, were identified, one of which was also associated with transmission among men who have sex with men. The expansion in Spain of CRF47_BF, together with that of other CRFs and subtype variants of South American origin, previously reported, reflects the increasing relationship between the South American and European HIV-1 epidemics.

Viruses Previously Identified in Brazil as Belonging to HIV-1 CRF72_BF1 Represent Two Closely Related Circulating Recombinant Forms, One of Which, Designated CRF122_BF1, Is Also Circulating in Spain

Circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) are important components of the HIV-1 pandemic. Those derived from recombination between subtype B and subsubtype F1, with 18 reported, most of them of South American origin, are among the most diverse. In this study, we identified a HIV-1 BF1 recombinant cluster that is expanding in Spain, transmitted mainly via heterosexual contact, which, analyzed in near full-length genomes in four viruses, exhibited a coincident BF1 mosaic structure, with 12 breakpoints, that fully coincided with that of two viruses (10BR_MG003 and 10BR_MG005) from Brazil, previously classified as CRF72_BF1. The three remaining Brazilian viruses (10BR_MG002, 10BR_MG004, and 10BR_MG008) previously identified as CRF72_BF1 exhibited mosaic structures highly similar, but not identical, to that of the Spanish viruses and to 10BR_MG003 and 10BR_MG005, with discrepant subtypes in two short genome segments, located in pol and gp120^env. Based on these results, we propose that the five viruses from Brazil previously identified as CRF72_BF1 actually belong to two closely related CRFs, one comprising 10BR_MG002, 10BR_MG004, and 10BR_MG008, which keep their CRF72_BF1 designation, and the other, designated CRF122_BF1, comprising 10BR_MG003, 10BR_MG005, and the viruses of the identified Spanish cluster. Three other BF1 recombinant genomes, two from Brazil and one from Italy, previously identified as unique recombinant forms, were classified as CRF72_BF1. CRF122_BF1, but not CRF72_BF1, was associated with protease L89M substitution, which was reported to contribute to antiretroviral drug resistance. Phylodynamic analyses estimate the emergence of CRF122_BF1 in Brazil around 1987. Given their close phylogenetic relationship and similar structures, the grouping of CRF72_BF1 and CRF122_BF1 in a CRF family is proposed.

Transmission Clusters, Predominantly Associated With Men Who Have Sex With Men, Play a Main Role in the Propagation of HIV-1 in Northern Spain (2013–2018)

Viruses of HIV-1-infected individuals whose transmission is related group phylogenetically in transmission clusters (TCs). The study of the phylogenetic relations of these viruses and the factors associated with these individuals is essential to analyze the HIV-1 epidemic. In this study, we examine the role of TCs in the epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Galicia and the Basque County, two regions of northern Spain. A total of 1,158 HIV-1-infected patients from both regions with new diagnoses (NDs) in 2013–2018 were included in the study. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed phylogenetically by approximately maximum-likelihood with FastTree 2. In this analysis, 10,687 additional sequences from samples from HIV-1-infected individuals collected in Spain in 1999–2019 were also included to assign TC membership and to determine TCs’ sizes. TCs were defined as those which included viruses from ≥4 individuals, at least 50% of them Spaniards, and with ≥0.95 Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like node support in the phylogenetic tree. Factors associated to TCs were evaluated using odds ratios (OR) and their 95% CI. Fifty-one percent of NDs grouped in 162 TCs. Male patients (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.5–4.7) and men having sex with men (MSM; OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.4–3.2) had higher odds of belonging to a TC compared to female and heterosexual patients, respectively. Individuals from Latin America (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.4), North Africa (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2–1.0), and especially Sub-Saharan Africa (OR: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.003–0.2) were inversely associated to belonging to TCs compared to native Spaniards. Our results show that TCs are important components of the HIV-1 epidemics in the two Spanish regions studied, where transmission between MSM is predominant. The majority of migrants were infected with viruses not belonging to TCs that expand in Spain. Molecular epidemiology is essential to identify local peculiarities of HIV-1 propagation. The early detection of TCs and prevention of their expansion, implementing effective control measures, could reduce HIV-1 infections.

Dating the Origin and Estimating the Transmission Rates of the Major HIV-1 Clusters in Greece: Evidence about the Earliest Subtype A1 Epidemic in Europe

Our aim was to estimate the date of the origin and the transmission rates of the major local clusters of subtypes A1 and B in Greece. Phylodynamic analyses were conducted in 14 subtype A1 and 31 subtype B clusters. The earliest dates of origin for subtypes A1 and B were in 1982.6 and in 1985.5, respectively. The transmission rate for the subtype A1 clusters ranged between 7.54 and 39.61 infections/100 person years (IQR: 9.39, 15.88), and for subtype B clusters between 4.42 and 36.44 infections/100 person years (IQR: 7.38, 15.04). Statistical analysis revealed that the average difference in the transmission rate between the PWID and the MSM clusters was 6.73 (95% CI: 0.86 to 12.60; p = 0.026). Our study provides evidence that the date of introduction of subtype A1 in Greece was the earliest in Europe. Transmission rates were significantly higher for PWID than MSM clusters due to the conditions that gave rise to an extensive PWID HIV-1 outbreak ten years ago in Athens, Greece. Transmission rate can be considered as a valuable measure for public health since it provides a proxy of the rate of epidemic growth within a cluster and, therefore, it can be useful for targeted HIV prevention programs.

[Social, demographic and clinical characteristics of female patients with schizophrenia and HIV]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate social, demographic and clinical characteristics of women with schizophrenia and HIV.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Medical histories of patients who were in inpatient treatment during 2017 were retrospectively studied. A total of 174 medical histories were analyzed, but the final analysis included 40 HIV-infected patients (main groups) and 48 patients without HIV infection (comparison group). These groups included patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or acute polymorphic psychotic disorder. All patients with HIV infection were examined by a specialist and an immunological analysis was performed. Correlation analysis was performed between quantitative clinical indicators (duration of illness, number of hospitalizations, the number and duration of remissions, etc.) and immunological parameters.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Patients with schizophrenia and HIV infection are more often hospitalized and stay in the hospital longer than patients with schizophrenia without HIV infection, which may in part be determined by the social problems of this cohort of patients. There is a relationship between individual indicators of the immune status of the patients, the duration and some features of the course of mental illness. Regular treatment of HIV infection correlates with a lower frequency of hospitalizations in a psychiatric hospital due to an exacerbation of the mental state.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Phylodynamics to Detect and Characterize Active Transmission Clusters in North Carolina

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) phylodynamics can be used to monitor epidemic trends and help target prevention through identification and characterization of transmission clusters.

METHODS

We analyzed HIV-1 pol sequences sampled in North Carolina from 1997 to 2014. Putative clusters were identified using maximum-likelihood trees and dated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference. Active clusters were defined as clusters including internal nodes from 2009 to 2014. Effective reproductive numbers (Re) were estimated using birth-death models for large clusters that expanded ≥2-fold from 2009 to 2014.

RESULTS

Of 14 921 persons, 7508 (50%) sequences were identified in 2264 clusters. Only 288 (13%) clusters were active from 2009 to 2014; 37 were large (10-36 members). Compared to smaller clusters, large clusters were increasingly populated by men and younger persons; however, nearly 60% included ≥1 women. Clusters with ≥3 members demonstrated assortative mixing by sex, age, and sample region. Of 15 large clusters with ≥2-fold expansion, nearly all had Re approximately 1 by 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylodynamics revealed transmission cluster expansion in this densely sampled region and allowed estimates of Re to monitor active clusters, showing the propensity for steady, onward propagation. Associations with clustering and cluster characteristics vary by cluster size. Harnessing sequence-derived epidemiologic parameters within routine surveillance could allow refined monitoring of local subepidemics.

Country Level Diversity of the HIV-1 Pandemic between 1990 and 2015

The global diversity of HIV forms a major challenge to the development of an HIV vaccine, as well as diagnostic, drug resistance, and viral load assays, which are essential to reaching the UNAIDS 90:90:90 targets. We sought to determine country level HIV-1 diversity globally between 1990 and 2015. We assembled a global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database through a systematic literature search and a global survey. We searched PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2015. We collected additional unpublished data through a global survey of experts. Prevalence studies with original HIV-1 subtyping data collected between 1990 and 2015 were included. This resulted in a database with 383,519 subtyped HIV-1 samples from 116 countries over four time periods (1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2004, 2005 to 2009, and 2010 to 2015). We analyzed country-specific numbers of distinct HIV-1 subtypes, circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), and unique recombinant forms (URFs) in each time period. We also analyzed country-specific proportions of infections due to HIV-1 recombinants, CRFs, and URFs and calculated the Shannon diversity index for each country. Finally, we analyzed global temporal trends in each of these measures of HIV-1 diversity. We found extremely wide variation in complexity of country level HIV diversity around the world. Central African countries such as Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, and Republic of the Congo have the most diverse HIV epidemics. The number of distinct HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants was greatest in Western Europe (Spain and France) and North America (United States) (up to 39 distinct HIV-1 variants in Spain). The proportion of HIV-1 infections due to recombinants was highest in Southeast Asia (>95% of infections in Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Thailand), China, and West and Central Africa, mainly due to high proportions of CRF01_AE and CRF02_AG. Other CRFs played major roles (>75% of HIV-1 infections) in Estonia (CRF06_cpx), Iran (CRF35_AD), and Algeria (CRF06_cpx). The highest proportions of URFs (>30%) were found in Myanmar, Republic of the Congo, and Argentina. Global temporal analysis showed consistent increases over time in country level numbers of distinct HIV-1 variants and proportions of CRFs and URFs, leading to increases in country level HIV-1 diversity. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that the HIV pandemic is diversifying at country level and highlights the increasing challenge to prevention and treatment efforts. HIV-1 molecular epidemiological surveillance needs to be continued and improved.IMPORTANCE This is the first study to analyze global country level HIV-1 diversity from 1990 to 2015. We found extremely wide variation in complexity of country level HIV diversity around the world. Central African countries have the most diverse HIV epidemics. The number of distinct HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants was greatest in Western Europe and North America. The proportion of HIV-1 infections due to recombinants was highest in South-East Asia, China, and West and Central Africa. The highest proportions of URFs were found in Myanmar, Republic of the Congo, and Argentina. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that the HIV pandemic is diversifying at country level and highlights the increasing challenge to HIV vaccine development and diagnostic, drug resistance, and viral load assays.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 in African Countries: A Comprehensive Overview

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) originated in non-human primates in West-central Africa and continues to be a major global public health issue, having claimed almost 33 million lives so far. In Africa, it is estimated that more than 20 million people are living with HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and that more than 730,000 new HIV-1 infections still occur each year, likely due to low access to testing. The high genetic variability of HIV-1, due to a fast replication cycle and high mutation rate, may cause the generation of many viral variants in a single infected patient during a single day. Therefore, the active monitoring and characterization of the HIV-1 subtypes and recombinant forms circulating through African countries poses a significant challenge to more specific diagnoses, treatments, care, and intervention strategies. In this review, a concise characterization of all the subtypes and recombinant forms circulating in Africa is presented to highlight the magnitude of the HIV-1 threat among the African countries and to understand virus genetic diversity and dispersion dynamics better.

Global and regional epidemiology of HIV-1 recombinants in 1990-2015: a systematic review and global survey

BACKGROUND

Global HIV-1 genetic diversity and evolution form a major challenge to treatment and prevention efforts. An increasing number of distinct HIV-1 recombinants have been identified worldwide, but their contribution to the global epidemic is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinant forms during 1990-2015.

METHODS

We assembled a global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database through a systematic literature review and a global survey. We searched the PubMed, Embase (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) databases for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from Jan 1, 1990, to Dec 31, 2015. Unpublished original HIV-1 subtyping data were collected through a survey among experts in the field who were members of the WHO-UNAIDS Network for HIV Isolation and Characterisation. We included prevalence studies with HIV-1 subtyping data collected during 1990-2015. Countries were grouped into 14 regions and analyses were done for four time periods (1990-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15). The distribution of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) and unique recombinant forms (URFs) in individual countries was weighted according to the UNAIDS estimates of the number of people living with HIV in each country to generate regional and global estimates of numbers and proportions of HIV-1 recombinants in each time period. The systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017067164.

FINDINGS

Our global data collection yielded an HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database of 383 519 samples from 116 countries in 1990-2015. We found that the proportion of recombinants increased over time, both globally and in most regions, reaching 22·8% (7 978 517 of 34 921 639) of global HIV-1 infections in 2010-15. Both the proportion and the number of distinct CRFs detected increased over time to 16·7% and 57 CRFs in 2010-15. The global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinants was diverse and evolved over time, and we found large regional variation in the numbers (0-44 CRFs), types (58 distinct CRFs), and proportions (0-80·5%) of HIV-1 recombinants. Globally, CRF02_AG was the most prevalent recombinant, accounting for 33·9% (2 701 364 of 7 978 517) of all recombinant infections in 2010-15. URFs accounted for 26·7% (2 131 450 of 7 978 517), CRF01_AE for 23·0% (1 838 433), and other CRFs for 16·4% (1 307 270) of all recombinant infections in 2010-15. Although other CRFs accounted for small proportions of infections globally (<1% each), they were prominent in regional epidemics, including in east and southeast Asia, west and central Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and eastern Europe and central Asia. In addition, in 2010-15, central Africa (21·3% [243 041 of 1 143 531]), west Africa (15·5% [838 476 of 5 419 010]), east Africa (12·6% [591 140 of 4 704 986]), and Latin America (9·6% [153 069 of 1 586 605]) had high proportions of URFs.

INTERPRETATION

HIV-1 recombinants are increasingly prominent in global and regional HIV epidemics, which has important implications for the development of an HIV vaccine and the design of diagnostic, resistance, and viral load assays. Continued and improved surveillance of the global molecular epidemiology of HIV is crucial.

FUNDING

None.

A Nationwide Study about the Dispersal Patterns of the Predominant HIV-1 Subtypes A1 and B in Greece: Inference of the Molecular Transmission Clusters

Our aim was to investigate the dispersal patterns and parameters associated with local molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) of subtypes A1 and B in Greece (predominant HIV-1 subtypes). The analysis focused on 1751 (28.4%) and 2575 (41.8%) sequences of subtype A1 and B, respectively. Identification of MTCs was based on phylogenetic analysis. The analyses identified 38 MTCs including 2-1518 subtype A1 sequences and 168 MTCs in the range of 2-218 subtype B sequences. The proportion of sequences within MTCs was 93.8% (1642/1751) and 77.0% (1982/2575) for subtype A1 and B, respectively. Transmissions within MTCs for subtype A1 were associated with risk group (Men having Sex with Men vs. heterosexuals, OR = 5.34, p < 0.001) and Greek origin (Greek vs. non-Greek origin, OR = 6.05, p < 0.001) and for subtype B, they were associated with Greek origin (Greek vs. non-Greek origin, OR = 1.57, p = 0.019), younger age (OR = 0.96, p < 0.001), and more recent sampling (time period: 2011-2015 vs. 1999-2005, OR = 3.83, p < 0.001). Our findings about the patterns of across and within country dispersal as well as the parameters associated with transmission within MTCs provide a framework for the application of the study of molecular clusters for HIV prevention.

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV-1 Subtype B Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype B is the predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of these infections, including its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach by combining and analyzing 663 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1988-2018 and associated epidemiologic data to better understand this sub-epidemic in Bulgaria. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d) we found several large phylogenetic clusters composed mostly of men who have sex with men (MSM) and male heterosexuals (HET). However, at d = 0.5%, used to identify more recent transmission, the largest clusters dissociated to become smaller in size. The majority of female HET and persons with other transmission risks were singletons or pairs in the network. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian pol sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that subtype B was likely introduced into Bulgaria from multiple countries, including Israel and several European countries. Our findings indicate that subtype B was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988 and then infections rapidly spread among MSM and non-disclosed MSM. These high-risk behaviors continue to spread subtype B infection in Bulgaria as evidenced by the large clusters at d = 0.5%. Relatively low levels of antiretroviral drug resistance were observed in our study. Prevention strategies should continue to include increased testing and linkage to care and treatment, as well as expanded outreach to the MSM communities.

High Prevalence of Sequences Included in Transmission Clusters Within Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Patients in Southern Spain (2004-2015)

The presence of transmission clusters (TCs) and their epidemiological characteristics in a treatment-naive cohort of HIV-1 patients in southern Spain over a decade (2004-2015) were evaluated. Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences provided by each genotype test were used in the phylogenetic study, performed first by the neighbor-joining method and then confirmed by Bayesian analysis. We collected clinical, immunovirological, and demographic data for all patients included. Our cohort comprised 757 patients, 428 (56.5%) belonging to a TC. Overall, we found 123 TCs, 21 of them comprising five or more individuals and three with ≥10 sequences. Forty-three TCs (35.0%) remained active. The clustered patients were mainly men (92.8%) who had sex with men (MSM) (81.5%), Spanish (80.6%), and young adults (median age at diagnosis of 32.6 years). They had lower percentages of late diagnosis and AIDS cases (42.1% and 13.6%, respectively), whereas the presence of recent seroconverters (31.1%), HIV-1 B subtypes (79.4%), and transmission drug resistance (20.3%) increased within TCs, with regard to not-clustered individuals. Among the TCs of non-B variants, circulating recombinant forms (CRF) were predominant (87.5%), with the highest frequencies for CRF19_cpx (17.0% of non-B subtype sequences in TCs); CRF02_AG (15.9%); and CRF01_AE (9.1%). In conclusion, over half of our cohort was included within a TC. More than a third of TCs found could be considered active transmission events. Belonging to a TC was related to MSM, Spanish origin, recent seroconversion, high prevalence of resistance mutations, and B HIV subtype. Among the non-B genetic forms in TCs, we found a high prevalence of CRF19_cpx, CRF02_AG, and CRF01_AE variants.

Prediction of HIV Transmission Cluster Growth With Statewide Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Prediction of HIV transmission cluster growth may help guide public health action. We developed a predictive model for cluster growth in North Carolina (NC) using routine HIV surveillance data.

METHODS

We identified putative transmission clusters with ≥2 members through pairwise genetic distances ≤1.5% from HIV-1 pol sequences sampled November 2010-December 2017 in NC. Clusters established by a baseline of January 2015 with any sequences sampled within 2 years before baseline were assessed for growth (new diagnoses) over 18 months. We developed a predictive model for cluster growth incorporating demographic, clinical, temporal, and contact tracing characteristics of baseline cluster members. We internally and temporally externally validated the final model in the periods January 2015-June 2016 and July 2016-December 2017.

RESULTS

Cluster growth was predicted by larger baseline cluster size, shorter time between diagnosis and HIV care entry, younger age, shorter time since the most recent HIV diagnosis, higher proportion with no named contacts, and higher proportion with HIV viremia. The model showed areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves of 0.82 and 0.83 in the internal and temporal external validation samples.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive model developed and validated here is a novel means of identifying HIV transmission clusters that may benefit from targeted HIV control resources.

Near Full-length Genomic Sequencing and Molecular Analysis of HIV-Infected Individuals in a Network-based Intervention (TRIP) in Athens, Greece: Evidence that Transmissions Occur More Frequently from those with High HIV-RNA

Background:

TRIP (Transmission Reduction Intervention Project) was a network-based, contact tracing approach to locate and link to care, mostly people who inject drugs (PWID) with recent HIV infection.

Objective:

We investigated whether sequences from HIV-infected participants with high viral load cluster together more frequently than what is expected by chance.

Methods:

Paired end reads were generated for 104 samples using Illumina MiSeq next-generation se-quencing.

Results:

63 sequences belonged to previously identified local transmission networks of PWID (LTNs) of an HIV outbreak in Athens, Greece. For two HIV-RNA cut-offs (105 and 106 IU/mL), HIV transmissions were more likely between PWID with similar levels of HIV-RNA (p<0.001). 10 of the 14 sequences (71.4%) from PWID with HIV-RNA >106 IU/mL were clustered in 5 pairs. For 4 of these clusters (80%), there was in each one of them at least one sequence from a recently HIV-infected PWID.

Conclusion:

We showed that transmissions are more likely among PWID with high viremia.

HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters in nine European countries and Canada: association with demographic and clinical factors

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) is important, especially in large-scale datasets, for designing prevention programmes and public health intervention strategies. We used a large-scale HIV-1 sequence dataset from nine European HIV cohorts and one Canadian, to identify MTCs and investigate factors associated with the probability of belonging to MTCs.

METHODS

To identify MTCs, we applied maximum likelihood inferences on partial pol sequences from 8955 HIV-positive individuals linked to demographic and clinical data. MTCs were defined using two different criteria: clusters with bootstrap support >75% (phylogenetic confidence criterion) and clusters consisting of sequences from a specific region at a proportion of >75% (geographic criterion) compared to the total number of sequences within the network. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with MTC clustering.

RESULTS

Although 3700 (41%) sequences belonged to MTCs, proportions differed substantially by country and subtype, ranging from 7% among UK subtype C sequences to 63% among German subtype B sequences. The probability of belonging to an MTC was independently less likely for women than men (OR = 0.66; P < 0.001), older individuals (OR = 0.79 per 10-year increase in age; P < 0.001) and people of non-white ethnicity (OR = 0.44; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.70; P = 0.002 for black and 'other' versus white, respectively). It was also more likely among men who have sex with men (MSM) than other risk groups (OR = 0.62; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.69; P = 0.002 for people who inject drugs, and sex between men and women, respectively), subtype B (ORs 0.36-0.70 for A, C, CRF01 and CRF02 versus B; all P < 0.05), having a well-estimated date of seroconversion (OR = 1.44; P < 0.001), a later calendar year of sampling (ORs 2.01-2.61 for all post-2002 periods versus pre-2002; all P < 0.01), and being naïve to antiretroviral therapy at sampling (OR = 1.19; P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion (>40%) of individuals belonged to MTCs. Notably, the HIV epidemic dispersal appears to be driven by subtype B viruses spread within MSM networks. Expansion of regional epidemics seems mainly associated with recent MTCs, rather than the growth of older, established ones. This information is important for designing prevention and public health intervention strategies.

Molecular Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)-Infected Individuals in a Network-Based Intervention (Transmission Reduction Intervention Project): Phylogenetics Identify HIV-1-Infected Individuals With Social Links

Background

The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) is a network-based intervention that aims at decreasing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) spread. We herein explore associations between transmission links as estimated by phylogenetic analyses, and social network-based ties among persons who inject drugs (PWID) recruited in TRIP.

Methods

Phylogenetic trees were inferred from HIV-1 sequences of TRIP participants. Highly supported phylogenetic clusters (transmission clusters) were those fulfilling 3 different phylogenetic confidence criteria. Social network-based ties (injecting or sexual partners, same venue engagement) were determined based on personal interviews, recruitment links, and field observation.

Results

TRIP recruited 356 individuals (90.2% PWID) including HIV-negative controls; recently HIV-infected seeds; long-term HIV-infected seeds; and their social network members. Of the 150 HIV-infected participants, 118 (78.7%) were phylogenetically analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses suggested the existence of 13 transmission clusters with 32 sequences. Seven of these clusters included 14 individuals (14/32 [43.8%]) who also had social ties with at least 1 member of their cluster. This proportion was significantly higher than what was expected by chance.

Conclusions

Molecular methods can identify HIV-infected people socially linked with another person in about half of the phylogenetic clusters. This could help public health efforts to locate individuals in networks with high transmission rates.