Cost-effectiveness analysis of the oral cancer screening program in Taiwan

Current advances of oral cancer in Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

To provide updated statistics of oral cancer incidence and mortality in Taiwan, and to describe recent developments for oral cancer control to reduce oral cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS

The Taiwan Cancer Registry Annual Report 2023, the Taiwan Cancer Registry Online Interactive Search System, and the 2023 Health Promotion Administration Annual Report are consulted and summarized. A literature search using PubMed was also conducted to identify Taiwan oral cancer control-related studies.

RESULTS

Taiwan, with a long history of areca/betel quid chewing, has battled with oral cancer for decades. In 2021, the male lip and oral cavity cancer incidence is 29.77 (per 100,000 persons) and mortality is 11.25. Over these years, the male chewing prevalence was reduced to 6.2% in 2018. Taiwan has a sustained national oral cancer screening programme provided to high-risk groups biennially.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the age-standardized incidence rates have been slowly decreasing since 2009, due to Taiwan's ageing population, the actual oral cancer burden is still stringent. The collaboration of multi-ministries and agencies on promoting areca nut and betel quid control, improving oral cancer awareness, and delivering cancer care remains essential to prevent oral cancer and reduce oral cancer deaths.

Impact of Healthy Lifestyle Factors on Life Expectancy and Lifetime Health Care Expenditure: Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The association between lifestyle risk factors and the risk of mortality and chronic diseases has been established, while limited research has explored the impact of healthy lifestyle factors on lifetime health care expenditure using longitudinal individual data.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the individual and combined effects of 5 healthy lifestyle factors on life expectancy and lifetime health care expenditure in Taiwan.

METHODS

Using data from the National Health Interview Survey cohort, 5 healthy lifestyle behaviors were defined and analyzed: nonsmoking, avoiding excessive alcohol consumption, engaging in sufficient physical activity, ensuring sufficient fruit and vegetable intake, and maintaining a normal weight. We used a rolling extrapolation algorithm that incorporated inverse probability of treatment weighting to estimate the life expectancy and lifetime health care expenditure of the study populations with and without healthy lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

A total of 19,893 participants aged ≥30 (mean age 48.8, SD 13.4) years were included, with 3815 deaths recorded during a median follow-up period of 15.6 years. The life expectancy and per capita estimated lifetime health care expenditures for the overall study population were 35.32 years and US $58,560, respectively. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in participants adhering to all 5 healthy lifestyle factors, compared with those adhering to none, were 0.37 (95% CI 0.27-0.49). We found significant increases in life expectancy for nonsmokers (2.31 years; 95% CI 0.04-5.13; P=.03), those with sufficient physical activity (1.85 years; 95% CI 0.25-4.34; P=.02), and those with adequate fruit and vegetable intake (3.25 years; 95% CI 1.29-6.81; P=.01). In addition, nonsmokers experienced a significant reduction in annual health care expenditure (-9.78%; 95% CI -46.53% to -1.45%; P=.03), as did individuals maintaining optimal body weight (-18.36%; 95% CI -29.66% to -8.57%; P=.01). Overall, participants adhering to all 5 healthy lifestyle behaviors exhibited a life gain of 7.13 years (95% CI 1.33-11.11; P=.02) compared with those adhering to one or none, with a life expectancy of 29.19 years (95% CI 25.45-33.62). Furthermore, individuals adopting all 5 healthy lifestyle factors experienced an average annual health care expenditure reduction of 28.12% (95% CI 4.43%-57.61%; P=.02) compared with those adopting one or none.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting a healthy lifestyle is associated with a longer life expectancy and a reduction of health care expenditure in Taiwanese adults. This contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of healthy lifestyle factors on the overall health and economic burden.

Estimating Taiwan's QALY league table for catastrophic illnesses: Providing real-world evidence to integrate prevention with treatment for resources allocation

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Curative technologies improve patient's survival and/or quality of life but increase financial burdens. Effective prevention benefits all three. We summarize estimation methods and provide examples of how much money is spent per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or life year (LY) on treating a catastrophic illness under a lifetime horizon and how many QALYs/LYs and lifetime medical costs (LMC) could be potentially saved by prevention.

METHODS

We established cohorts by interlinkages of Taiwan's nation-wide databases including National Health Insurance. We developed methods to estimate lifetime survival functions, which were multiplied with the medical costs and/or quality of life and summed up to estimate LMC, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and lifetime average cost per QALY/LY for catastrophic illnesses. By comparing with the age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched referents simulated from vital statistics, we obtained the loss-of-QALE and loss-of-life expectancy (LE).

RESULTS

The lifetime cost-effectiveness ratios of ventilator-dependent comatose patients, dialysis, spinal cord injury, major trauma, and cancers were US$ 96,800, 16,200-20,000, 5500-5,900, 3400-3,600, and 2900-11,900 per QALY or LY, respectively. The successful prevention of lung, liver, oral, esophagus, stomach, nasopharynx, or ovary cancer would potentially save US$ 28,000-97,000 and > 10 QALYs; whereas those for end-stage kidney disease, stroke, spinal injury, or major trauma would be US$ 55,000-300,000 and 10-14 QALYs. Loss-of-QALE and loss-of-LE were less confounded indicators for comparing the lifetime health benefits of different technologies estimated from real-world data.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of prevention with treatment for resources allocation seems feasible and would improve equity and efficiency.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-based cancer screening, a nationwide retrospective study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed a great burden on Taiwan's health care system. It has also had a great impact on other public health issues, including cancer screening. Delayed cancer screening was also noticed in the U.S. during the pandemic, which may have led to both delayed diagnosis and poor prognosis. In Taiwan, population-based cancer screening for breast cancer, oral cancer, colon cancer and cervical cancer has been executed and ongoing for years.

METHOD

In this study we have analyzed the change in screening numbers for cancer during the period of the 2019 to 2021 COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan.

RESULTS

Through our results we found that total cancer screening numbers decreased from 307,547 to 103,289 (a 66% decrease) from the years 2020 to 2021. Specifically, a 63%, 79%, 65% and 71% decrease in screening cases was seen for colon cancer, oral cancer, cervical cancer and breast cancer, respectively, during that period. A similar condition was noticed when comparing 2019 to 2021 when the disclosed total cancer screening numbers decreased by 70% (2019-2021); 65%, 83%, 70% and 76% in colon cancer, oral cancer, cervical cancer and breast cancer, respectively. Among these various cancer screenings, oral cancer screening showed the greatest reduction rate (a drop of 83% compared to 2019 and 79% compared to 2020). We also compared the reduction rates taken from different regions in Taiwan. It was in Taipei, where most COVID-19 cases were noted, that the greatest reduction rate of cancer screening numbers occurred (a drop of76% compared to 2019 and 74% compared to 2020). A proportional decrease of screening cases was also noticed in all areas when confirmed COVID-19 cases rose.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for cancers dropped significantly due to the pandemic and its effect on long-term health needs to be evaluated. Additionally, efforts should be taken to address these cancer screening number deficits which have taken place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Estimation of disability free life expectancy in non small cell lung cancer based on real world data

To quantify the societal impact of disability in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), this study estimated the disability-free life expectancy (DFLE), loss-of-DFLE and explored their associations with quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and loss-of-QALE. We interlinked national databases and applied a rolling-over algorithm to estimate the lifetime survival function for patients with NSCLC. Using the EuroQOL-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) and Barthel index (BI), we repeatedly measured the quality-of-life and disability functions of NSCLC patients who visited our hospital from 2011 to 2020. Age-, sex-matched referents were simulated from lifetables of the same calendar year of diagnosis. We categorized BI scores ≤ 70 as in need of long-term care and constructed linear mixed models to estimate the utility values and disability scores. We collected 960 cases and 3088 measurements. The proportions of measurements without disability at age 50-64 and in stage I-IIIa, 50-64 and stage IIIb-IV, 65-89 and stage I-IIIa and 65-89 and stage IIIb-IV were 97.3%, 89.3%, 94.8%,78.3%, corresponding to DFLEs of 15.3, 2.4, 6.8, 1.2 years and losses-of-DFLE of 8.1, 20.7, 4.0, 8.6 years, respectively, indicating that advanced stage had a stronger effect than old age. Survivors in advanced stages showed increased demands for assistance in almost all subitems. The DFLEs seemed to be approximate to the QALEs and the latter were shorter than the former due to discomfort and depression. From a societal perspective, future health technology assessment should consider the impact of lifetime duration of functional disability. Early diagnosis of NSCLC may decrease the burden of long-term care.

Statin use and its association with decreased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in betel nut chewers

BACKGROUND

Betel nut chewing involves the chewing of areca nuts or betel quid (areca nuts wrapped in betel leaves), which is associated with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Statins have anticancer properties. We investigated the association between statin use and ESCC risk in betel nut chewers.

METHODS

The study included 105 387 betel nut chewers matched statin users and nonusers. Statin use was defined as the use of ≥28 cumulative defined daily doses (cDDDs) of statin. The primary outcome was incidence of ESCC.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of ESCC was significantly lower in statin users than in nonusers (2.03 vs. 3.02 per 100 000 person-years). Statin users had a lower incidence rate ratio of 0.66 for ESCC (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-0.85) relative to nonusers. After potential confounders were adjusted for, statin use was determined to be associated with a reduced risk of ESCC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.68; 95% CI: 0.51-0.91). A dose-response relationship was observed between statin use and ESCC risk; the aHRs for statin use at 28-182 cDDDs, 183-488 cDDDs, 489-1043 cDDDs, and > 1043 cDDDs were 0.92, 0.89, 0.66, and 0.64, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Statin use was revealed to be associated with a reduced risk of ESCC in betel nut chewers.

Economic Evaluation of Oral Cancer Screening Programs: Review of Outcomes and Study Designs

A lack of guidance on economic evaluations for oral cancer screening programs forms a challenge for policymakers and researchers to fill the knowledge gap on their cost-effectiveness. This systematic review thus aims to compare the outcomes and design of such evaluations. A search for economic evaluations of oral cancer screening was performed on Medline, CINAHL, Cochrane, PubMed, health technology assessment databases, and EBSCO Open Dissertations. The quality of studies was appraised using QHES and the Philips Checklist. Data abstraction was based on reported outcomes and study design characteristics. Of the 362 studies identified, 28 were evaluated for eligibility. The final six studies reviewed consisted of modeling approaches (n = 4), a randomized controlled trial (n = 1), and a retrospective observational study (n = 1). Screening initiatives were mostly shown to be cost-effective compared to non-screening. However, inter-study comparisons remained ambiguous due to large variations. The observational and randomized controlled trials provided considerably accurate evidence of implementation costs and outcomes. Modeling approaches, conversely, appeared more feasible for the estimation of long-term consequences and the exploration of strategy options. The current evidence of the cost-effectiveness of oral cancer screening remains heterogeneous and inadequate to support its institutionalization. Nevertheless, evaluations incorporating modeling methods may provide a practical and robust solution.

ZNF582 hypermethylation as a prognostic biomarker for malignant transformation of oral lesions

OBJECTIVES

This hospital-based cohort study evaluated whether ZNF582 and PAX1 methylation levels at baseline can be used as biomarkers to identify lesions with a high potential for malignant transformation in patients with normal mucosa and oral potentially malignant disorders.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We recruited 171 adult patients with normal mucosa and oral potentially malignant disorders in 2012-2014. They were followed until 2017. Outcomes, including advanced histopathological findings and oral cancer occurrence, were obtained from medical charts, the Taiwan Cancer Registry, and cause-of-death data. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of ZNF582 and PAX1 methylation levels at baseline with subsequent outcome occurrences.

RESULTS

After 260,192 days of follow-up, 11 cases of oral cancer and 4 cases of advanced histopathological progression occurred. Patients with higher ZNF582 and PAX1 methylation levels at baseline had a higher incidence of disease progression. After adjustment for all studied factors using Cox proportional hazards regression models, ZNF582^m level (adjusted hazard ratio, 11.41; 95% CI, 2.05-63.36; p = 0.005) was the only significant and independent predictor of disease progression.

CONCLUSIONS

ZNF582 hypermethylation can be an effective and noninvasive biomarker for identifying oral lesions with a high potential for malignant transformation.

Lifetime exposure to PM2.5 air pollution and disability-adjusted life years due to cardiopulmonary disease: A modeling study based on nationwide longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

As knowledge of the health risks of PM_2.5 has grown, the focus of PM_2.5-related health impact assessments has evolved from simple risk models to burden-of-disease estimates. We proposed an ecological approach to directly estimate the impacts of lifetime exposure to PM_2.5 on expected health losses due to cardiopulmonary diseases for older adult populations in Taiwan.

METHODS

We created study cohorts of 3.5 million older people living in 350 townships in Taiwan. We used a weighted regression model, with adjustments of area characteristic variables, to directly estimate the impacts of lifetime mean PM_2.5 exposure on health losses among the 350 cohorts. Potential avoidable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by assuming that ambient PM_2.5 met the air quality standard was estimated.

RESULTS

Each 10 μg/m³ increase in lifetime mean exposure to PM_2.5 for an individual corresponded to an increment of 0.25 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.18-0.32) DALYs due to cardiopulmonary diseases, after adjusting for a wide range of ecological covariates. We estimated that 611.8 (95 % CI: 440.4-783.2) DALYs per 1000 older adult population could potentially be avoided by achieving air quality standards of WHO in Taiwan.

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing PM_2.5 pollution in Taiwan associated with significant health co-benefits, providing important implications for public health and environmental management.

Development and professional validation of an App to support Oral Cancer Screening

The objective of this study was to develop and validate an App for identifying risk factors for oral cancer. To this end, we developed an App (OCS: Oral Cancer Screening) with predictors of Oral Cancer (OC) and algorithm assembly to estimate the risk of its development.

METHODOLOGY

Simulated clinical cases were designed so that 40 professionals with expertise in oral diagnostics could validate the algorithm and test its usability (SUS: System Usability Score) and acceptability (TAM: Technology Acceptance Model). Cronbach's alpha coefficient, Friedman/Dunn tests, and Spearman correlation evaluated the SUS and TAM scales. ROC curve was plotted to estimate the cutoff point of the algorithm in suggesting a high risk for OCS of the simulated cases. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were additionally used (p<0.05, SPSS v20.0).

RESULTS

Professionals with expertise in oral diagnosis had usability of 84.63±10.66 and acceptability of 84.75±10.62, which correlated positively (p<0.001, r=0.647). Acting in clinical areas of dentistry (p=0.034) and history of performing OC risk factor orientation (p=0.048) increased acceptability while acting in higher education increased usability (p=0.011). The cutoff point suggested by the App after validation of the simulated clinical cases showed high sensitivity of 84.8% and lower specificity of 58.4%.

CONCLUSION

The OCS was effective and with adequate sensitivity, usability, and acceptability and may contribute to the detection of early oral lesions.

Improving the Diagnostic Performance by Adding Methylation Marker to Conventional Visual Examination in Identifying Oral Cancer

Background: Visual oral examination (VOE) is a conventional oral cancer screening method. This study aimed to evaluate the value of methylation marker to assist VOE in identifying oral epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma (OED/OSCC) from non-cancerous lesions in a real-world situation. Methods: 201 patients with high-risk personal habits who self-perceived oral anomaly were VOE examined, ZNF582 methylation (ZNF582^m) tested, and histologically diagnosed. Results: Among them, 132 patients (65.7%) were histologically diagnosed OED/OSCC. Using VOE, 56.1% OED/OSCC patients had possible oral cancer, whereas 37.7% non-OED/OSCC patients had leukoplakia. ZNF582^m-positive was detected in 90.2% OED/OSCC patients and 44.9% non-OED/OSCC patients. Various logistic regression models were postulated to evaluate the diagnostic performance of conventional VOE and new strategies using ZNF582^m. ROC analysis and its corresponding C-index demonstrated that either triage or co-testing models of VOE and ZNF582^m could improve diagnostic performance and discriminative abilities compared with the VOE only approach. Conclusions: In conclusion, methylation marker test shows equivalent performance to an experienced judgment by oral maxillofacial surgeons and plays a significantly supplementary role in increasing the efficacy in identifying oral malignant lesions. ZNF582^m may be an especially important tool for family physicians or general dentists to properly diagnose suspicious oral lesions.

Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Performed by Gastroenterologists: Opportunistic Screening Strategy for Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancers

Aim

Approximately 66% of head and neck cancers are diagnosed at an advanced stage. This prospective study aimed to detect newly diagnosed head and neck cancers using regular upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy with oral-pharynx-larynx examination.

Methods

A total of 2,849 patients underwent UGI endoscopy with an additional oral-pharynx-larynx examination. Patients aged < 20 years, those who were pregnant, had a history of head and neck cancers, were undergoing emergency endoscopy, and had a poor laryngopharyngeal view were excluded. The symptoms, incidence, location, pathology, and stage of malignant neoplasms were investigated.

Results

A total of 2,720 patients were enrolled. Endoscopically observable 23 abnormal findings (0.85%) included 18 (0.66%) benign lesions and 5 (0.18%) newly diagnosed malignant neoplasms. Notably, 4 (80%) of 5 patients with malignant neoplasms were diagnosed at an early stage (Stage 0, I, and II).

Conclusions

UGI endoscopy with oral-pharynx-larynx examination can achieve opportunistic head neck cancer screening and is recommended for every patient in endoscopy units.

Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan

Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cancer burden is essential. We conducted an age-period-cohort analysis on the incidence of oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017 and extrapolated the trend to 2025. We found that the period trends for young adults aged between 25 and 44 have already peaked before 2017; the younger, the earlier, and then the trends declined. The cohort trends have peaked roughly at the 1972 birth cohort and then declined for all ages. Despite the increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate for oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017, we forecast a peak attained, an imminent decline after 2017, and a decrease of 8.4% in age-standardized incidence rate from 2017 to 2025. The findings of this study contribute to developing efficient and comprehensive strategies for oral cancer prevention and control.

Molecular Signatures of Tumour and Its Microenvironment for Precise Quantitative Diagnosis of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma: An International Multi-Cohort Diagnostic Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity in oral potentially malignant disorder (OPMD) poses a problem for accurate prognosis that impacts on treatment strategy and patient outcome. A holistic assessment based on gene expression signatures from both the tumour cells and their microenvironment is necessary to provide a more precise prognostic assessment than just tumour cell signatures alone.

METHODS

We reformulated our previously established multigene qPCR test, quantitative Malignancy Index Diagnostic System (qMIDS) with new genes involved in matrix/stroma and immune modulation of the tumour microenvironment. An algorithm calculates and converts a panel of 16 gene mRNA expression levels into a qMIDS index to quantify risk of malignancy for each sample.

RESULTS

The new qMIDS^V2 assay was validated in a UK oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) cohort (n = 282) of margin and tumour core samples demonstrating significantly better diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.945) compared to previous qMIDS^V1 (AUC = 0.759). Performance of qMIDS^V2 were independently validated in Chinese (n = 35; AUC = 0.928) and Indian (n = 95; AUC = 0.932) OSCC cohorts. Further, 5-year retrospective analysis on an Indian dysplastic lesion cohort (n = 30) showed that qMIDS^V2 was able to significantly differentiate between lesions without transformation and those with malignant transformation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study validated a novel multi-gene qPCR test on a total of 535 tissue specimens from UK, China and India, demonstrating a rapid minimally invasive method that has a potential application for dysplasia risk stratification. Further study is required to establish if qMIDS^V2 could be used to improve OPMD patient management, guide treatment strategy and reduce oral cancer burden.

Modeling oral cancer screening in the United States population

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the impact of oral cancer screening if applied to the United States (US) population or various high-risk populations in the US.

METHODS

We modeled the effects of applying an oral cancer screening program to the US population assuming a similar mortality reduction as seen in the randomized Kerala trial. We combined data on the incidence of oral cancer in the Surveillance, End Results, and Epidemiology database, data on the relative risk in various high-risk groups from the Prostate, Lung, Cervical, and Ovarian screening trial, and the National Lung Screening Trial and data on the prevalence of cigarette use from the National Health Interview Survey.

RESULTS

When extrapolating to the US population we predict the number needed to screen to prevent one oral cancer death (NNS) = 9,845 in all individuals aged 35 + . Screening efficiency would increase if applied to higher-risk populations. If oral cancer screening were applied to male ≥ 60 pack-year current smokers or former smokers who have quit within 15 years aged 50-79 we predict a 4.6% reduction in oral cancer mortality with an NNS = 1,485.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted screening of individuals at high risk for oral cancer has the potential to maximize the efficiency of screening and meaningfully impact oral cancer mortality. We suggest a future screening trial in high-risk individuals be considered to clarify the role of oral cancer screening in the US.

Cost-effectiveness of oral cancer screening approaches by visual examination: Systematic review

The present study is the first systematic review of papers that have performed a full economic evaluation on oral cancer screening strategies using visual oral examination. The review questions were (1) Is screening a cost-effective strategy in oral cancer? (2) What is the most cost-effective strategy among the different screening approaches in oral cancer? The main outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The study identifies and reviews seven full economic evaluations. The included studies scored 75%-100% on the methodological appraisal. Majority of the studies reports that oral cancer screening is a cost-effective strategy, especially in an opportunistic setting and high-risk subset of patients. The results were sensitive to cost and effectiveness parameters. Oral cancer screening, though found cost-effective, the uncertainty around these parameters necessitates additional studies that include better estimates in the modeling assessments. The heterogeneity in studies limited comparison and generalization.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of mammography screening program in Taiwan: Adjusting different distributions of age and calendar year for real world data

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

We estimated loss-of-life expectancy (LE) and lifetime medical expenditures (LME) stratified by stages to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of breast cancer (BC) screening in Taiwan.

METHODS

We interlinked four national databases- Cancer Registry, Mortality Registry, National Health Insurance Claim, and Mammography Screening. A cohort of 123,221 BC was identified during 2002-2015 and followed until December 31, 2017. We estimated LE and loss-of-LE by rolling extrapolation algorithm using age-, sex-, and calendar-year-matched referents simulated from vital statistics. LME was estimated by multiplying monthly cost with survival probability and adjusted for annual discount rate. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) by comparing the loss-of-LE of those detected by screening versus non-screening after accounting for administration fees and radiation-related excess BC.

RESULTS

The LEs of stages I, II, III, and IV were 31.4, 27.2, 20.0, and 5.2 years, respectively, while the loss-of-LEs were 1.2, 4.9, 11.7, and 25.0 years with corresponding LMEs of US$ 73,791, 79,496, 89,962, and 66,981, respectively. The difference in LE between stages I and IV was 26.2 years while that of loss-of-LE was 23.8 years, which implies that a potential lead time bias may exist if diagnosis at younger ages for earlier stages were not adjusted for. The ICER of mammography seemed cost-saving after the coverage exceeded half a million.

CONCLUSION

Mammography could detect BC early and be cost-saving after adjustment for different distributions of age and calendar year of diagnosis. Future studies exploring healthcare expenditure and impaired quality of life for false-positive cases are warranted.

QALYs and medical costs saved from prevention of a cancer: Analysis of nation-wide real-world data of Taiwan with lifetime horizon

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

To quantify savings of loss-of-QALE (quality-adjusted life expectancy) and lifetime medical costs from prevention of different cancers.

METHODS

We collected nation-wide data on 808,700 new cancer cases of 14 different organ systems and followed them from 1998 to 2014 in Taiwan. We also collected 13,005 cancer patients from a medical center and 47,320 repeated measurements of quality of life (QoL) of EQ-5D to obtain utility values and multiplied them with the corresponding survival rates to calculate QALE. With Kaplan-Meier estimation to survival function to the end of follow-up, we extrapolated to lifetime through a rolling over algorithm on the logit transform of the survival ratio between the index cohort and age-, sex, and calendar year matched referents simulated from vital statistics. Lifetime costs for each cancer were estimated by multiplying survival with average monthly costs after adjustment with annual discount rate. The loss-of-QALE was estimated by the difference in QALE between the index cancer cohort and corresponding referents.

RESULTS

The dynamic changes and weighted averages of the QoL utility values of 14 different cancers ranged from 0.82 to 0.95. Successful prevention of liver, lung, esophagus, or nasopharynx cancer would save more than 10 quality-adjusted life years and more than 21,000 USD per case for both genders. Since the saving of loss-of-QALE was adjusted for different age, sex, and calendar-year distributions, it could be used in cost effectiveness evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Savings of loss-of-QALE and lifetime costs could be used for comparison of prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation from a lifetime horizon.

Point-of-care characterization and risk-based management of oral lesions in primary dental clinics: A simulation model

OBJECTIVES

Oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) encompass histologically benign, dysplastic, and cancerous lesions that are often indistinguishable by appearance and inconsistently managed. We assessed the potential impact of test-and-treat pathways enabled by a point-of-care test for OPMD characterization.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare life expectancy of test-treat strategies for 60-year-old patients with OPMDs in the primary dental setting, based on a trial for a point-of-care cytopathology tool (POCOCT). Eight strategies of OPMD detection and evaluation were compared, involving deferred evaluation (no further characterization), prompt OPMD characterization using POCOCT measurements, or the commonly recommended usual care strategy of routine referral for scalpel biopsy. POCOCT pathways differed in threshold for additional intervention, including surgery for any dysplasia or malignancy, or for only moderate or severe dysplasia or cancer. Strategies with initial referral for biopsy also reflected varied treatment thresholds in current practice between surgery and surveillance of mild dysplasia. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variation in parameter values on model results.

RESULTS

Requisite referral for scalpel biopsy offered the highest life expectancy of 20.92 life-years compared with deferred evaluation (+0.30 life-years), though this outcome was driven by baseline assumptions of limited patient adherence to surveillance using POCOCT. POCOCT characterization and surveillance offered only 0.02 life-years less than the most biopsy-intensive strategy, while resulting in 27% fewer biopsies. When the probability of adherence to surveillance and confirmatory biopsy was ≥ 0.88, or when metastasis rates were lower than reported, POCOCT characterization extended life-years (+0.04 life-years) than prompt specialist referral.

CONCLUSION

Risk-based OPMD management through point-of-care cytology may offer a reasonable alternative to routine referral for specialist evaluation and scalpel biopsy, with far fewer biopsies. In patients who adhere to surveillance protocols, POCOCT surveillance may extend life expectancy beyond biopsy and follow up visual-tactile inspection.

Modulating effect of Coronarin D in 5-fluorouracil resistance human oral cancer cell lines induced apoptosis and cell cycle arrest through JNK1/2 signaling pathway

Coronarin D (CD) is one of the main components of Hedychium coronarium rhizome, which has therapeutic potential by reducing cell proliferation in cancer cells. However, the mechanism of CD to 5-fluorouracil (5FU) oral cancer cell remain unclearly. This study discusses the CD to 5FU chemoresistance oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) biochemical mechanisms and possibly pathways to inhibit multiplication in oral cancer. The effect of CD-treated 5FU-chemoresistance human oral cancer cell lines were subjected to MTT assay, cell cycle assay, DAPI assay, annexin-V/PI double staining assay and mitochondrial membrane potential measurement. Furthermore, western blotting was performed to assess the effect of CD on the expression levels of apoptosis related protein and MAPK signaling pathway. The results of the study evidenced that CD reduced viability of 5FU cancer cells in a dose- and time-dependent manner compared with control. The cytotoxic effect of CD lead to cell cycle arrest in the G2/M phase and induced apoptosis in both internal and external pathways. CD induces apoptosis by enhancing phosphorylation of JNK, further exploring the combination of CD and SP600125 reduced the overexpression of phosphate JNK levels. The mechanism of action of CD in 5FU on human oral cancer cells is reported for the first time and can hopeful to be a potential therapeutic agent for 5FU against human oral cancer cells.

Later-Life Exposure to Moderate PM2.5 Air Pollution and Life Loss of Older Adults in Taiwan

Background: Few studies have directly estimated expected life loss attributable to lifetime exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Methods: We used claims data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance to create 63 study cohorts of 1.91 million residents aged 60–79 years old residing in small areas where air quality monitoring stations are situated. The survival status of each person was followed from 2001 to 2016. We applied an extrapolation algorithm to estimate the lifetime survival function so that we could directly estimate life expectancy (LE) and the lifetime exposure to PM_2.5 of each cohort. We estimated the association between LE and lifetime exposure to PM_2.5 among the 63 cohorts. We also fit a Cox proportional hazards model to all the data combined to estimate the relative risk of mortality. Results: Older adults who lived in an area with a higher lifetime weighted average PM_2.5 of 10 μg/m3 had a shortened LE by 0.34 (95% CI: 0.22–0.46) years. The hazard ratio of mortality was 1.0245 (1.0242–1.0248) per one μg/m3 increase in lifetime average PM_2.5. Conclusion: This study provides strong evidence that later-life exposure to moderate PM_2.5 air pollution had a substantial impact on the life loss of older adults.

Estimation of Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy of Patients With Oral Cancer: Integration of Lifetime Survival With Repeated Quality-of-Life Measurements

BACKGROUND

Quality-adjusted life year is widely applied nowadays, which consider both survival and quality of life (QoL). When most diseases are becoming chronic, it is imperative to quantify the overall health impact of a disease in lifetime perspective.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to introduce methods for estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and loss of QALE in patients with a disease or specific conditions.

METHODS

The QALE of an index cohort can be represented as the integration of the product of lifetime survival function and mean QoL function. We introduce a robust extrapolation approach for estimating lifetime survival function and propose an approach for estimating lifetime mean QoL function for studies with limited follow-up. The best part of the proposed method is that the survival data and QoL data can be collected separately. A cohort of patients with a specific condition can be identified by databases that regularly collect data for the control of diseases, and their survival status is verified by linking to a mortality registry. Although nationwide QoL data are not available, researchers can implement a relative short-term follow-up interview on a random sample of patients to collect QoL data. For demonstration, we applied the proposed methods to estimate QALE and loss of QALE of oral cancer patients.

RESULTS

The estimates (95% confidence interval) of QALE for oral cancer patients were 11.0 (10.5-11.6) and 14.2 (12.7-15.5) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for men and women, respectively. The estimates of loss of QALE for the male and female patients with oral cancer were 14.4 (13.8-14.9) and 7.5 (6.2-9.0) QALYs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The methods for estimating QALE and loss of QALE can be applied to economic evaluation of cancer control, including screening.