Age and sex-specific disability-free life expectancy in urban and rural settings of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) has been used to gain a better understanding of the population's quality of life.

OBJECTIVES

The authors aimed to estimate age and sex-specific disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) for urban and rural areas of Bangladesh, as well as to investigate the differences in DFLE between males and females of urban and rural areas.

METHODS

Data from the Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics-2016 and the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES)-2016 were used to calculate the disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of urban and rural males and females in Bangladesh in 2016. The DFLE was calculated using the Sullivan method.

RESULTS

With only a few exceptions, rural areas have higher mortality and disability rates than urban areas. For both males and females, statistically significant differences in DFLE were reported between urban and rural areas between the ages of birth and 39 years. In comparison to rural males and females, urban males and females had a longer life expectancy (LE), a longer disability-free life expectancy, and a higher share of life without disability.

CONCLUSION

This study illuminates stark urban-rural disparities in LE and DFLE, especially among individuals aged < 1-39 years. Gender dynamics reveal longer life expectancy but shorter disability-free life expectancy for Bangladeshi women compared to men, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address these pronounced health inequalities.

The burden of diabetes and hypertension on healthy life expectancy in Bangladesh

Diabetes and hypertension are among the leading causes of death in Bangladesh. This study examined hypertension, diabetes, and either or both, free life expectancy, to measure the effect of the diseases on the overall health of individuals in Bangladesh with regional variations. We utilized data from Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics 2018 for mortality and Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018 for diabetes and hypertension. The Sullivan method was employed to estimate age-specific hypertension and diabetes-free life expectancy. Altogether, 10.3% of the people aged 18-19 years lived with either diabetes or hypertension. The hypertension-free life expectancy was 40.4 years, and the diabetes-free life expectancy was 53.2 years for those aged 15-19. Overall, individuals would expect to spend 38.7% of their lives with either of the diseases. Females suffered more from hypertension and males from diabetes. Still, females suffered more from the aggregate of both. Rural people had more diabetes and hypertension-free life expectancy than those of urban. Individuals of Mymensingh had the highest life expectancy free of both diseases compared to other divisions of Bangladesh. Diabetes and hypertension affect a considerable proportion of the life of the population in Bangladesh. Policy actions are needed to guide the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of both diseases, specifically focusing on women and urban populations. Widespread health-enhancing actions need to be taken to diminish the effect of these two diseases in Bangladesh.

Trends in Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) and Disparities by Income and Region in Korea (2008-2020): Analysis of a Nationwide Claims Database

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy is a well-recognized indicator for establishing health policy goals used in Korea's Health Plan. This study aimed to explore Koreans' healthy life expectancy and its gender, income, and regional disparities from 2008 to 2020.

METHODS

This study was conducted on the entire population covered by health insurance and medical aid program in Korea. The incidence-based "years lived with disability" for 260 disease groups by gender, income level, and region was calculated employing the methodology developed in the Korean National Burden of Disease Study, and it was used as the number of healthy years lost to calculate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE).

RESULTS

Koreans' HALE increased from 68.89 years in 2008 to 71.82 years in 2020. Although the gender disparity in HALE had been decreasing, it increased to 4.55 years in 2020. As of 2020, 5.90 years out of 8.67 years of the income disparity (Q5-Q1) in HALE were due to the disparity between Q1 and Q2, the low-income groups. Income and regional disparities in HALE exhibited an increasing trend, and these disparities were higher in men than in women.

CONCLUSION

A subgroup with a low health level was identified through the HALE results, and it was confirmed that improving the health level of this population can reduce health inequalities and improve health at the national level. Further exploration of the HALE calculation methodology may help in the development of effective policies such as prioritizing interventions for health risk factors.

Ethnic differences in disability-free life expectancy and disabled life expectancy in older adults in Chile

BACKGROUND

Although about 10% of the Latin American population is indigenous, ethnic differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy with disability (DLE) are unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate disability-free life expectancy and disabled life expectancy among Mapuche (the largest indigenous group) and non-indigenous older adults aged 60 years or more in Chile.

METHOD

Disability was measured following a methodology that combines limitations of daily living, cognitive impairment and dependence previously validated in Chile. Finally, the DFLE was estimated using Sullivan's method combining life tables by ethnicity and disability proportions from the EDES survey designed for the study of ethnic differentials in health and longevity in Chile.

RESULTS

Non-Indigenous people have a higher total and Disability-free life expectancy compared to Mapuche people at all ages. While at age 60 a Mapuche expects to live 18.9 years, of which 9.4 are disability-free, a non-Indigenous expects to live 26.4 years, of which 14 are disability-free. In addition, although the length of life with disability increases with age for both populations, Mapuche who survive to age 80 or 90 expect to live 84% and 91% of their remaining life with disability, higher proportions compared to non-indigenous people (62.9% and 75%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study addressing inequities in DFLE between the Mapuche and non-Indigenous population, reflected in lower total life expectancy, lower DFLE and higher DLE in Mapuche compared to the non-Indigenous population. Our results underscore the need for increased capacity to monitor mortality risks among older people, considering ethnic differences.

Research on the healthy life expectancy of older adult individuals in China based on intrinsic capacity health standards and social stratification analysis

Background

Based on the health standard of intrinsic capacity, this paper conducts an empirical study on the healthy life expectancy of older adult individuals aged 60 and older in China and analyzes the health inequities associated with different social characteristics to provide a reference for improving care for the older adult in China.

Methods

Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2015 were used to evaluate the intrinsic capacity level of older adult individuals, and the multistate life table method was used to measure the healthy life expectancy of older adult individuals in China with the help of IMaCH software. Based on the theory of social stratification, the health inequality between older adult individuals in different social classes was analyzed in three dimensions: residence, income and education level.

Results

The calculation results show that the average life expectancy of the older adult in China at age 60 is 21.07 years, the healthy life expectancy is 16.89 years, and the healthy life expectancy accounts for 80.2% of the average life expectancy. The healthy life expectancy of older adult individuals with different social characteristics in China shows significant differences, and the healthy life expectancy of older adult individuals who are male, live in urban environments, have high levels of education and have middle- to high-income levels is significantly better than that of older adult individuals who are female, live in rural areas, have low levels of education and income.

Conclusion

Healthy life expectancy measured by intrinsic capacity as the health standard has a certain reference value, which reflects the overall health level of older adult individuals in China and expands the transformation and multidimensional understanding of the healthy thinking of older adult individuals in China. The analysis by social stratification reflects the large health inequities that exist in the older adult population in China.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of an integrated clinical-radiogenomic screening program for the identification of BRCA 1/2 carriers (e-PROBE study)

Current approach to identify BRCA 1/2 carriers in the general population is ineffective as most of the carriers remain undiagnosed. Radiomics is an emerging tool for large scale quantitative analysis of features from standard diagnostic imaging and has been applied also to identify gene mutational status. The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of integrating a radiogenomics model with clinical and family history data in identifying BRCA mutation carriers in the general population. This cost-effective analysis compares three different approaches to women selection for BRCA testing: established clinical criteria/family history (model 1); established clinical criteria/family history and the currently available radiogenomic model (49% sensitivity and 87% specificity) based on ultrasound images (model 2); same approach used in model 2 but simulating an improvement of the performances of the radiogenomic model (80% sensitivity and 95% specificity) (model 3). All models were trained with literature data. Direct costs were calculated according to the rates currently used in Italy. The analysis was performed simulating different scenarios on the generation of 18-year-old girls in Italy (274,000 people). The main outcome was to identify the most effective model comparing the number of years of BRCA-cancer healthy life expectancy (HLYs). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was also derived to determine the cost in order to increase BRCA carriers-healthy life span by 1 year. Compared to model 1, model 2 increases the detection rate of BRCA carriers by 41.8%, reduces the rate of BRCA-related cancers by 23.7%, generating over a 62-year observation period a cost increase by 2.51 €/Year/Person. Moreover, model 3 further increases BRCA carriers detection (+ 68.3%) and decrease in BRCA-related cancers (- 38.4%) is observed compared to model 1. Model 3 increases costs by 0.7 €/Year/Person. After one generation, the estimated ICER in the general population amounts to about 3800€ and 653€ in model 2 and model 3 respectively. Model 2 has a massive effect after only one generation in detecting carriers in the general population with only a small cost increment. The clinical impact is limited mainly due to the current low acceptance rate of risk-reducing surgeries. Further multicentric studies are required before implementing the integrated clinical-radiogenomic model in clinical practice.

Impact of income inequalities on subjective perception of older adult health: An analysis of healthy life expectancy in China from 1997 to 2006

AIM

Driven by rapid socioeconomic development over recent decades, there are widening income inequalities and subjective health disparities among older adults in China. This study explored the relationship between income inequalities and self-rated healthy life expectancy (HLE) considering potential sex-specific differences.

METHODS

From a cohort of 1760 individuals aged ≥60 years from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1997-2006), we calculated age-specific life expectancy (LE), HLE and the proportion of HLE to LE (HLE/LE) by sex using the IMaCh software, incorporated time-varying income levels of older adults.

RESULTS

Although longevity has significantly improved, the well-being of Chinese older adults could be further enhanced by assessing HLE, as the results showed that at age 60 years, ~20% of their LE was characterized by unhealthiness. Discriminated by economic status, lower-income individuals experienced worse self-rated health compared with the general population and affluent counterparts. For instance, at age 60 years, the LE, HLE and HLE/LE of low-income men were 19.8 (95% CI 18.4-21.1), 16.2 years (95% CI 15.0-17.5) and 81.8%, respectively, lower than their general (21.7, 95% CI: 20.4-23.0; 18.0, 95% CI 16.8-19.2; and 82.9%) and high-income counterparts (25.1, 95% CI 23.1-27.2; 21.4, 95% CI 19.5-23.3; and 85.3%). Sex disparities were noticeable among low-income individuals in HLE/LE, with low-income women showing the most significant disadvantage.

CONCLUSIONS

Income inequalities exacerbated subjective health disparities among older adults, particularly among lower-income individuals and women. Our findings carry significant implications for formulating public health and social welfare strategies, especially in nations grappling with an aging population and undergoing parallel socioeconomic development. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 109-115.

Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble

Background

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) projections are required for optimising social and health service management in the future. Existing studies on the topic were usually conducted by selecting a single model for analysis. We thus aimed to use an ensembled model to project the future HLE for 202 countries/region.

Methods

We obtained data on age-sex-specific HLE and the sociodemographic index (SDI) level of 202 countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and used a probabilistic Bayesian model comprised of 21 forecasting models to predict their HLE in 2030.

Results

In general, HLE is projected to increase in all 202 countries, with the least probability of 82.4% for women and 81.0% for men. Most of the countries with the lowest projected HLE would be located in Africa. Women in Singapore have the highest projected HLE in 2030, with a 94.5% probability of higher than 75.2 years, which is the highest HLE in 2019 across countries. Maldives, Kuwait, and China are projected to have a probability of 49.3%, 41.2% and 31.6% to be the new entries of the top ten countries with the highest HLE for females compared with 2019. Men in Singapore are projected to have the highest HLE at birth in 2030, with a 93.4% probability of higher than 75.2 years. Peru and Maldives have a probability of 48.7% and 35.3% being new top ten countries in male's HLE. The female advantage in HLE will shrink by 2030 in 117 countries, especially in most of the high SDI and European countries.

Conclusions

HLE will likely continue to increase in most countries and regions worldwide in the future. More attention needs to be paid to combatting obesity, chronic diseases, and specific infectious diseases, especially in African and some Pacific Island countries. Although gender gaps may not be fully bridged, HLE could partially mitigate and even eliminate them through economic development and improvements in health care.

A Gender Differentiated Analysis of Healthy Life Expectancy in South Asia: The Role of Greenhouse Gas Emission

The sluggish progress concerning SDG-9 and SDG 13 has made South Asia an epicentre of household and ambient greenhouse gases emissions. Furthermore, the regional progress concerning attainment of SDG-3 is considerably low. The major research objectives are twofold. First, to explore the impact of GHGs emissions from agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing sector on disaggregated life expectancy. Second, to examine the mitigating impact of renewable energy use, trade integration, and human capital development for practice policy recommendations. These research objectives are realized by employing recently advanced cross-sectional auto regressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model on panel data of five South Asian countries such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2019. The estimation outcome reveals that the emissions from transportation, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors significantly deteriorate healthy life expectancy of male and female healthy life expectancy in South Asia with different intensity. Especially, we find that long-run impact of GHG is more profound on male healthy life expectancy than female life expectancy. The result further shows that renewable energy and human capital substantially improve healthy life expectancy, whereas the effects of trade integration are insignificant. The finding of moderating variables shows that renewable energy, human capital development, and trade integration have high potential to reduce GHGs emissions. The findings of this study urge South Asia for investments in human capital development and renewable energy along with fostering regional integration to decrease GHG and improve healthy life expectancy.

Divergences and gaps in life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy in Mexico: Contribution analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Life expectancy (LE) and Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) are summary indicators that reflect a population's general life conditions and measure inequities in health outcomes. The objective of this study was to identify the differences in LE and HALE by sex, age group, and state in Mexico from 1990 to 2019. Also, to evaluate whether the changes in HALE are related to sociodemographic indicators and indicators of access to and quality of health services.

METHODS

A secondary analysis was performed based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Data were obtained for LE (by sex and state) and HALE (by sex, age group, and state) for the years 1990, 2010, and 2019. The correlations between HALE with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index were estimated for 1990 and 2019 (by total population and sex).

RESULTS

LE and HALE had an absolute increase of 6.7% and 6.4% from 1990 to 2019, mainly among women, although they spent more years in poor health (11.8 years) than men. The patterns of LE and HALE were heterogeneous and divergent by state. In 2019, the difference in HALE (for both sex) between the states with the highest (Hidalgo) and the lowest (Chiapas) value was 4.6 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Progress in LE and HALE has slowed in recent years; HALE has even had setbacks in some states. Gaps between men and women, as well as between states, are persistent. Public and population policymaking should seek to lengthen LE and focus on ensuring that such years are spent in good health and with good quality of life.

Spatiotemporal patterns of healthy life expectancy and the effects of health financing in West African countries, 1995-2019: A Spatial Panel Modelling Study

Background

Health financing produce a broad range of healthy life expectancy (HLE) disparities. In West Africa, limited research exists on the association between health financing and HLE at ecological level during a consecutive period of time from the spatial perspectives. This study aimed to determine the existence, quantify the magnitude, and interpret the association between health financing and HLE.

Methods

A Dynamic Spatial Durbin model was used to explain the association between HLE and health financing level and structure during 1995-2019 in West Africa. Spatial spillover effects were introduced to interpret the direct and indirect effects caused by health financing level and structure on HLE during the long and short terms.

Results

Spatial dependence and clustering on HLE were observed in West Africa. Although the overall level of total health spending, government health spending, out-of-pocket health spending, and development assistance for health (DAH) increased from 1995 to 2019, government health spending per person experienced a declining trend. Out-of-pocket health spending per total health spending was the highest among other sources of health financing, decreasing from 57% during 1995-1999 to 42% during 2015-2019. Total health spending and out-of-pocket health spending affected HLE positively and negatively in the long term, respectively. Government health spending and prepaid private health spending per person had positive effects on local and adjacent country HLE in the short-term, while DAH had negative effects on the same. The short-term spatial spillover effects of government health spending, DAH, and prepaid private health spending per person were more pronounced than the long-term effects.

Conclusions

Spatial variations of HLE existed at country-level in West Africa. Health financing regarding government, non-government, as well as external assistance not only affected HLE disparities at local scale but also among nearby countries. Policymakers should optimise supportive health financing transition policies and narrow the national gap to reduce health disparities and increase HLE. Externalities of policy of those health financing proxies should be took into consideration to promote health equity to improve global health governance.

Exploration of the Relationships between Men's Healthy Life Expectancy in Japan and Regional Variables by Integrating Statistical Learning Methods

A quantitative understanding of the relationship between comprehensive health levels, such as healthy life expectancy and their related factors, through a highly explanatory model is important in both health research and health policy making. In this study, we developed a regression model that combines multiple linear regression and a random forest model, exploring the relationship between men's healthy life expectancy in Japan and regional variables from open sources at the city level as an illustrative case. Optimization of node-splitting in each decision tree was based on the total mean-squared error of multiple regression models in binary-split child nodes. Variations of standardized partial regression coefficients for each city were obtained as the ensemble of multiple trees and visualized on scatter plots. By considering them, interaction terms with piecewise linear functions were exploratorily introduced into a final multiple regression model. The plots showed that the relationship between the healthy life expectancy and the explanatory variables could differ depending on the cities' characteristics. The procedure implemented here was suggested as a useful exploratory method for flexibly implementing interactions in multiple regression models while maintaining interpretability.

Impact of access to childhood health services on healthy life expectancy of the older population

Background

Life course theory provides new perspectives on the impact of early experiences on health in old age, where unfortunate childhood experiences can alter an individual's health trajectory. This study aims to calculate the healthy life expectancy of the older population in China under different childhood experiences, and to explore the influence of childhood medical and health services on the health level of older adults.

Methods

Differences in healthy life expectancy of the older population under different childhood experiences were analyzed using the multi-state life table method to calculate the healthy life expectancy by sex and place of birth, based on the cohort data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 2008 to 2018.

Results

The probability of the transition risk from health to non-health gradually increased with age, while the probability of the transition risk from non-health to health decreased with age; In both urban and rural areas, on the probability of the transition risk from health to non-health, the older adults who were able to receive timely medical and health services in childhood were lower than those who failed to receive medical services in time (Z = -5.833, P < 0.05), but the probability of the transition risk from non-health to health was the opposite (Z = -5.334, P < 0.05); The probability of the transition risk from health to death is also higher in older adults who were unable to receive timely medical care in childhood (Z = -5.88, P < 0.05); The healthy life expectancy and its proportion in the remaining life expectancy of older people who received medical and health services in time during childhood were significantly higher than those of their peers (Z = -5.88, P < 0.05).

Conclusions

The lack of medical services in childhood has a negative effect on the health of older adults. The healthy life expectancy and its proportion of remaining life expectancy were higher for rural older adults than for urban older adults under the same health care conditions in childhood; the health benefits of good access to health care environment or conditions in childhood were greater for rural older females.

Association between psychological distress and disability-free life expectancy in the older Japanese adults

BACKGROUND

Our study aimed to investigate the association between psychological distress and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE).

METHODS

In 2006, a cohort study was conducted of 12,365 Japanese individuals aged ≥65 years, who were followed-up for 13 years. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale and was categorized into no (0-4), mild (5-9), moderate (10-12), and serious distress (13-24). The number of participants was 1277 (22.4 %) for mild distress, 330 (5.8 %) for moderate, and 208 (3.6 %) for serious in men, and was 1635 (24.6 %), 467 (7.0 %), and 384 (5.8 %) in women. Sex-specific DFLE was defined as the mean years a person could expect to live without disability and calculated by Interpolated Markov Chain (IMaCh) software.

RESULTS

Compared to no distress, DFLE loss per person was 1.21, 2.61, and 4.43 years for mild, moderate, and serious distress respectively in men. At population level, DFEL loss (i.e., DFLE loss per person×number of participants) was 1545.17, 861.30, and 921.44 years for mild, moderate, and serious distress respectively in men. Accordingly, 46.4 % of the total DFLE loss was attributable to mild distress, 25.9 % to moderate, and 27.7 % to serious in men. Similarly, the results were 42.2 %, 25.4 %, and 32.4 % in women.

LIMITATIONS

Psychological distress was measured only once at baseline, and 2409 participants were excluded from the analysis because of missing data on exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

At population level, almost half of the total DFLE loss could be attributable to mild distress, underscoring the importance of population strategy for all levels of distress in promoting healthy aging.

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of Korean registered disabled by disability type in 2014-2018: Korea National Rehabilitation Center database

BACKGROUND

Conducting a distinct comparison between the life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) of people with disabilities (PWDs) and the general population is necessary due to the various environmental and health conditions they encounter. Therefore, this study aimed to develop the life table for PWDs and calculate those of LE and HALE based on sex, severity, and disability types among the registered Korean PWDs.

METHODS

We used aggregated data of registered PWDs from the Korea National Rehabilitation Center database between 2014 and 2018. Overall, 345,595 deaths were included among 12,627,428 registered PWDs. First, we calculated the LE for total PWDs and non-disabled people using a standard life table, extending the old age mortality among nine models. Subsequently, we calculated the LE for each type of disability using the relationship between the mortality of total PWDs and those of each type of disability. Finally, HALE was calculated using the Sullivan method for three types as follows: disability-free and perceived health (PH) using the National Survey, and hospitalized for  ≥ 7 days using the Korea National Health Insurance System (NHIS) database.

RESULTS

The calculated LE/HALE-NHIS (years) at registration in males and females were 81.32/73.32 and 87.38/75.58, 68.54/58.98 and 71.43/59.24, 73.87/65.43 and 78.25/67.51, and 61.53/50.48 and 62.41/49.72 years among non-disabled, total PWDs, mild disabled, and severe disabled, respectively. LE/HALE-NHIS was lowest and highest in respiratory dysfunction and hearing disabilities, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Males with disabilities had shorter LE and HALE at registration than females, except for those with severe disabilities, and there were variabilities in the LE based on the disability types.

The socioeconomic distribution of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Chile

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy (LE) has usually been used as a metric to monitor population health. In the last few years, metrics such as Quality-Adjusted-Life-Expectancy (QALE) and Health-Adjusted-Life- Expectancy (HALE) have gained popularity in health research, given their capacity to capture health related quality of life, providing a more comprehensive approach to the health concept. We aimed to estimate the distribution of the LE, QALEs and HALEs across Socioeconomic Status in the Chilean population.

METHODS

Based on life tables constructed using Chiang II´s method, we estimated the LE of the population in Chile by age strata. Probabilities of dying were estimated from mortality data obtained from national registries. Then, life tables were stratified into five socioeconomic quintiles, based on age-adjusted years of education (pre-school, early years to year 1, primary level, secondary level, technical or university). Quality weights (utilities) were estimated for age strata and SES, using the National Health Survey (ENS 2017). Utilities were calculated using the EQ-5D data of the ENS 2017 and the validated value set for Chile. We applied Sullivan´s method to adjust years lived and convert them into QALEs and HALEs.

RESULTS

LE at birth for Chile was estimated in 80.4 years, which is consistent with demographic national data. QALE and HALE at birth were 69.8 and 62.4 respectively. Men are expected to live 6.1% less than women. However, this trend is reversed when looking at QALEs and HALEs, indicating the concentration of higher morbidity in women compared to men. The distribution of all these metrics across SES showed a clear gradient in favour of a better-off population-based on education quintiles. The absolute and relative gaps between the lowest and highest quintile were 15.24 years and 1.21 for LE; 18.57 HALYs and 1.38 for HALEs; and 21.92 QALYs and 1.41 for QALEs. More pronounced gradients and higher gaps were observed at younger age intervals.

CONCLUSION

The distribution of LE, QALE and HALEs in Chile shows a clear gradient favouring better-off populations that decreases over people´s lives. Differences in LE favouring women contrast with differences in HALEs and QALEs which favour men, suggesting the need of implementing gender-focused policies to address the case-mix complexity. The magnitude of inequalities is greater than in other high-income countries and can be explained by structural social inequalities and inequalities in access to healthcare.

Estimation of disability free life expectancy in non small cell lung cancer based on real world data

To quantify the societal impact of disability in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), this study estimated the disability-free life expectancy (DFLE), loss-of-DFLE and explored their associations with quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and loss-of-QALE. We interlinked national databases and applied a rolling-over algorithm to estimate the lifetime survival function for patients with NSCLC. Using the EuroQOL-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) and Barthel index (BI), we repeatedly measured the quality-of-life and disability functions of NSCLC patients who visited our hospital from 2011 to 2020. Age-, sex-matched referents were simulated from lifetables of the same calendar year of diagnosis. We categorized BI scores ≤ 70 as in need of long-term care and constructed linear mixed models to estimate the utility values and disability scores. We collected 960 cases and 3088 measurements. The proportions of measurements without disability at age 50-64 and in stage I-IIIa, 50-64 and stage IIIb-IV, 65-89 and stage I-IIIa and 65-89 and stage IIIb-IV were 97.3%, 89.3%, 94.8%,78.3%, corresponding to DFLEs of 15.3, 2.4, 6.8, 1.2 years and losses-of-DFLE of 8.1, 20.7, 4.0, 8.6 years, respectively, indicating that advanced stage had a stronger effect than old age. Survivors in advanced stages showed increased demands for assistance in almost all subitems. The DFLEs seemed to be approximate to the QALEs and the latter were shorter than the former due to discomfort and depression. From a societal perspective, future health technology assessment should consider the impact of lifetime duration of functional disability. Early diagnosis of NSCLC may decrease the burden of long-term care.

Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis

AIMS

We seek to understand the coexisting effects of population aging and a rising burden of diabetes on healthy longevity in South Africa.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI) study to explore life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 45 and older with and without diabetes in rural South Africa. We estimated LE and DFLE by diabetes status using Markov-based microsimulation.

RESULTS

We find a clear gradient in remaining LE and DFLE based on diabetes status. At age 45, a man without diabetes could expect to live 7.4 [95% CI 3.4 - 11.7] more years than a man with diabetes, and a woman without diabetes could expect to live 3.9 [95% CI: 0.8 - 6.9] more years than a woman with diabetes. Individuals with diabetes lived proportionately more years subject to disability than individuals without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

We find large and important decrements in disability-free aging for people with diabetes in South Africa. This finding should motivate efforts to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts for diabetes and its complications for older adults in this setting.

Registry for Evaluating Healthy Life Expectancy and Long-Term Outcomes after Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation in the Very Elderly (REHEALTH AF) study: rationale and design of a prospective, multicentre, observational, comparative study

INTRODUCTION

Data are lacking on the extent to which patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) who are aged ≥80 years benefit from ablation treatment. The question pertains especially to patients' postablation quality of life (QoL) and long-term clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We are initiating a prospective, registry-based, multicentre observational study that will include patients aged ≥80 years with non-valvular AF who choose to undergo treatment by catheter ablation and, for comparison, such patients who do not choose to undergo ablation (either according to their physician's advice or their own preference). Study subjects are to be enrolled from 52 participant hospitals and three clinics located throughout Japan from 1 June 2022 to 31 December 2023, and each will be followed up for 1 year. The planned sample size is 660, comprising 220 ablation group patients and 440 non-ablation group patients. The primary endpoint will be the composite incidence of stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or systemic embolism (SE), another cardiovascular event, major bleeding and/or death from any cause. Other clinical events such as postablation AF recurrence, a fall or bone fracture will be recorded. We will collect standard clinical background information plus each patient's Clinical Frailty Scale score, AF-related symptoms, QoL (Five-Level Version of EQ-5D) scores, Mini-Mental State Examination (optional) score and laboratory test results, including measures of nutritional status, on entry into the study and 1 year later, and serial changes in symptoms and QoL will also be secondary endpoints. Propensity score matching will be performed to account for covariates that could affect study results.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study conforms to the Declaration of Helsinki and the Ethical Guidelines for Clinical Studies issued by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. Results of the study will be published in one or more peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000047023.

The relationship between results of coronary angiography, Mediterranean-type lifestyle, type D personality, and healthy life expectancy

AIM

The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between coronary angiography results and Mediterranean-type lifestyle and type D personality.

METHODS

Mediterranean-type lifestyle index and type D personality scale were administered to 230 participants.

RESULTS

In univariate analysis according to coronary angiography results, a statistically significant effect was determined between the decision for treatment with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and diabetes mellitus, and total and subscale points of Mediterranean lifestyle index, and between the decision for treatment with bypass and body mass index, Mediterranean diet, physical activity, and total points. In multivariate analysis, there was determined to be an effect between the PCI and systolic pressure, and between bypass and body mass index and subscale of physical activity. When disease-free life expectancy was examined, there was seen to be a negative effect of smoking and low Mediterranean diet points for participants with PCI, and of smoking, presence of hypertension, family history, and high type D personal characteristics score for those with bypass decision.

CONCLUSION

The evidence-based recommendations for a Mediterranean-type lifestyle stated in cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventative guidelines may have a positive effect on the prevention of CVD, disability-free life, and mortality.

QALYs, DALYs, and HALYs: A unifying framework for the evaluation of population health

We provide a unifying framework for the evaluation of population health. We formalize several axioms for social preferences over distributions of health. We show that a specific combination of those axioms characterizes a large class of population health evaluation functions combining concerns for quality of life, quantity of life and health shortfalls. We refer to the class as (unweighted) aggregations of health-adjusted life years (HALYs). Two focal (and somewhat polar) members of this family are the (unweighted) aggregations of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We also provide new characterization results for these focal members that enable us to scrutinize their normative foundations and shed new light on their similarities and differences.

Beyond COP26: can income level moderate fossil fuels, carbon emissions, and human capital for healthy life expectancy in Africa?

The growing concerns on the need to moderate the unceasing surge in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions believed to be detrimental to the environment and wellbeing of the human race have generated concerted efforts from governments and policymakers worldwide. Among many other factors, fossil fuels which remain the most consumed energy resource have been identified as the primary culprit to demeaning life expectancy. To this end, this study probes how income mediates between fossil fuels and carbon emissions to promote life expectancy in selected oil-abundant African economies from 1980 to 2019. The roles of human capital through investment in education are considered in the current inquiry. The empirical evidence is anchored on second-generation tests comprising cross-sectional dependence, slope homogeneity, and Westerlund cointegration tests. The empirical model is estimated based on advanced panel techniques comprising cross-sectional dependence autoregressive distributed lag model, common correlated effects mean group, augmented mean group, and quantile regression. Findings from the study reveal that fossil fuels and carbon emissions reduce life expectancy. Besides, income level promotes healthy life expectancy while equally subduing the negative impacts of fossil fuels on it. Additionally, the life-improving roles of human capital are empirically confirmed. Based on the findings, withdrawing the subsidies on fossil fuels and making aggregate income inclusive are among the key policies formulated.

[Progress in research of determinants of healthy life expectancy]

Objective: To analyze the influencing factors of healthy life expectancy (HLE). Methods: Seven Chinese and English databases were used for the retrieval of related literatures published by May 7, 2022 to identify influencing factors of HLE, including diseases and injuries and their risk factors. Based on the ecological model of health determinants, this study classifies the risk factors of diseases and injuries into five levels: personal characteristics, individual behavior and lifestyle, social network, living and working conditions, and macroscopic socio-economic, cultural and environmental conditions. Contents of research area, HLE indicators, research population, influencing factors, data sources and results were extracted. The frequencies of reported documents of different HLE indicators and influencing factors of different dimensions were visualized by using evidence map, and the empirical studies of four authoritative English medical journals and Chinese core medical journals were further compared and described. Results: A total of 90 studies were selected, in which 26 were conducted in China (28.9%). Fifty-three studies are about diseases and injuries in the first dimension, and all of them have studied non-communicable diseases, accounting for the highest proportion (58.9%). There were 77 studies about the analysis on the determinants of health at five levels by an ecological model, all the studies reported multi-level results. Among them, 53 studies reported personal characteristics (58.9%), 47 studies reported individual behavior and lifestyle (52.2%), 10 studies reported social networks (11.1%), 35 studies reported living and working environment (38.9%), 8 studies reported social economy, culture status and environment condition (8.9%). The literatures about HLE published by 4 authoritative English medical journals and 21 Chinese core medical journals in recent three years were selected. Non-communicable diseases and personal characteristics were the top two most commonly studied factors of HLE, and 11 (52.3%) and 12 (57.1%) studies reported these two kinds of factors respectively. The most important factor contributing to the global disability-adjusted life years of non-communicable diseases was individual behavior and lifestyle, which was the most changeable factor. Conclusions: In recent three years, studies involving influencing factors of HLE were mainly non-communicable diseases and personal characteristics. In the future, individual behavior, lifestyle and working environment should be strengthened.

Trends and inequalities in (healthy) life expectancy by neighbourhood during the COVID-19 epidemic in Barcelona

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the trend in life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HLE) and socio-economic inequalities by neighbourhood in Barcelona from the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019) to the pandemic period (2020-2021).

METHOD

LE and HLE at birth were computed using the municipal register of inhabitants and quality of life (EuroQol) from the Barcelona Health Survey of 2016. Inequalities were assessed with the gap between quantiles of neighbourhood income.

RESULTS

In 2020, there was a reduction in LE among men (-1.98 years) and women (-2.44) and in HLE among men (-1.44). Socio-economic inequalities in LE and HLE between neighbourhoods widened since 2019 to 2021 (LE: from 3.92 to 4.86 years for men, and from 1.30 to 3.60 for women; HLE: from 6.88 to 7.70 years for men, and from 7.85 to 9.31 for women).

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic has substantially reduced LE and HLE, with larger effects among low-income neighbourhoods, especially among women.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Disability-Free Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Among Older Chinese Adults From a 7-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Objectives: We examined the magnitude and determinants of socioeconomic disparities in disability-free life expectancy and life expectancy at age 65 (DFLE₆₅ and LE₆₅) in China.

Methods: Data from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey collected during 2011–2018 (8,184 participants aged ≥65) were used. Socioeconomic status (SES) was measured by economic status (ES), and education, respectively. Multistate Markov models and microsimulations were fitted to estimate DFLE₆₅ and LE₆₅.

Results: LE₆₅ between high- and low-ES groups differed by 2.20 years for males and 2.04 years for females. The DFLE₆₅ disparity in ES was 1.51 and 1.29 years for males and females, respectively. Not undergoing physical examinations, inadequate fruit/vegetable intake, and stress contributed to 35.10% and 57.36% of DFLE₆₅ disparity in ES, as well as 26.36% and 42.65% of LE₆₅ disparity for males and females, respectively. These disparities in education and ES were of a similar magnitude, while the above factors contributed little to education disparity.

Conclusion: Socioeconomic disparities in DFLE₆₅ and LE₆₅ existed in China. Physical examination, fruit/vegetable intake and stress partly explained these disparities.

Population-level impact of adverse early life conditions on adult healthy life expectancy in low- and middle-income countries

Evidence from theories of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) suggests that experiencing adverse early life conditions subsequently leads to detrimental adult health outcomes. The bulk of empirical DOHaD literature does not consider the nature and magnitude of the impact of adverse early life conditions at the population level. In particular, it ignores the distortion of age and cohort patterns of adult health and mortality and the increased load of chronic illness and disability that ensues. In this paper, we use a microsimulation model combined with empirical estimates of incidence and prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and associated disability in low- and middle-income countries to assess the magnitude of delayed effects on adult healthy life expectancy and on compression (or expansion) of morbidity at older ages. The main goal is to determine if, in what ways, and to what extent delayed effects due to early conditions can influence cohorts' chronic illness and disability profiles.

A comparison over 2 decades of disability-free life expectancy at age 65 years for those with long-term conditions in England: Analysis of the 2 longitudinal Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies

BACKGROUND

Previous research has examined the improvements in healthy years if different health conditions are eliminated, but often with cross-sectional data, or for a limited number of conditions. We used longitudinal data to estimate disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) trends for older people with a broad number of health conditions, identify the conditions that would result in the greatest improvement in DFLE, and describe the contribution of the underlying transitions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are both large population-based studies of those aged 65 years or over in England with identical sampling strategies (CFAS I response 81.7%, N = 7,635; CFAS II response 54.7%, N = 7,762). CFAS I baseline interviews were conducted in 1991 to 1993 and CFAS II baseline interviews in 2008 to 2011, both with 2 years of follow-up. Disability was measured using the modified Townsend activities of daily living scale. Long-term conditions (LTCs-arthritis, cognitive impairment, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes, hearing difficulties, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), respiratory difficulties, stroke, and vision impairment) were self-reported. Multistate models estimated life expectancy (LE) and DFLE, stratified by sex and study and adjusted for age. DFLE was estimated from the transitions between disability-free and disability states at the baseline and 2-year follow-up interviews, and LE was estimated from mortality transitions up to 4.5 years after baseline. In CFAS I, 60.8% were women and average age was 75.6 years; in CFAS II, 56.1% were women and average age was 76.4 years. Cognitive impairment was the only LTC whose prevalence decreased over time (odds ratio: 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5 to 0.6, p < 0.001), and where the percentage of remaining years at age 65 years spent disability-free decreased for men (difference CFAS II-CFAS I: -3.6%, 95% CI: -8.2 to 1.0, p = 0.12) and women (difference CFAS II-CFAS I: -3.9%, 95% CI: -7.6 to 0.0, p = 0.04) with the LTC. For men and women with any other LTC, DFLE improved or remained similar. For women with CHD, years with disability decreased (-0.8 years, 95% CI: -3.1 to 1.6, p = 0.50) and DFLE increased (2.7 years, 95% CI: 0.7 to 4.7, p = 0.008), stemming from a reduction in the risk of incident disability (relative risk ratio: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4 to 0.8, p = 0.004). The main limitations of the study were the self-report of health conditions and the response rate. However, inverse probability weights for baseline nonresponse and longitudinal attrition were used to ensure population representativeness.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed improvements to DFLE between 1991 and 2011 despite the presence of most health conditions we considered. Attention needs to be paid to support and care for people with cognitive impairment who had different outcomes to those with physical health conditions.

A Review of the Types and Characteristics of Healthy Life Expectancy and Methodological Issues

An index that evaluates the health level of a population group considering both death and loss of function due to disease is called a summary measure of population health (SMPH). SMPHs are broadly divided into life year indices and life expectancy indices, the latter of which comprise healthy life expectancy (HLE). HLE is included as a policy target in various national and regional level healthcare plans, and the term “HLE” is commonly used in academia and by the public. However, the overall level of understanding of HLE—such as the precise definition of HLE and methods of calculating HLE—still seems to be low. As discussed in this study, the types of HLE are classified into disability-free life expectancy, disease-free life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, self-rated HLE, and disability-adjusted life expectancy. Their characteristics are examined to facilitate a correct understanding and appropriate utilization of HLE. In addition, the Sullivan method, as a representative method for calculating HLE, is presented in detail, and major issues in the process of calculating HLE, such as selection of the population group and age group, estimation of death probability, calculation of life years, and incorporation of health weights, are reviewed. This study will help researchers to select an appropriate HLE type and evaluate the validity of HLE research results, and it is expected to contribute to the vitalization of HLE research.

Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities

BACKGROUND

Simulation models can be used to quantify the projected health impact of interventions. Quantifying heterogeneity in these impacts, for example by socioeconomic status, is important to understand impacts on health inequalities. We aim to disaggregate one type of Markov macro-simulation model, the proportional multistate lifetable, ensuring that under business-as-usual (BAU) the sum of deaths across disaggregated strata in each time step returns the same as the initial non-disaggregated model. We then demonstrate the application by deprivation quintiles for New Zealand (NZ), for: hypothetical interventions (50% lower all-cause mortality, 50% lower coronary heart disease mortality) and a dietary intervention to substitute 59% of sodium with potassium chloride in the food supply.

METHODS

We developed a disaggregation algorithm that iteratively rescales mortality, incidence and case-fatality rates by time-step of the model to ensure correct total population counts were retained at each step. To demonstrate the algorithm on deprivation quintiles in NZ, we used the following inputs: overall (non-disaggregated) all-cause mortality & morbidity rates, coronary heart disease incidence & case fatality rates; stroke incidence & case fatality rates. We also obtained rate ratios by deprivation for these same measures. Given all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates by deprivation quintile, we derived values for the incidence, case fatality and mortality rates for each quintile, ensuring rate ratios across quintiles and the total population mortality and morbidity rates were returned when averaged across groups. The three interventions were then run on top of these scaled BAU scenarios.

RESULTS

The algorithm exactly disaggregated populations by strata in BAU. The intervention scenario life years and health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained differed slightly when summed over the deprivation quintile compared to the aggregated model, due to the stratified model (appropriately) allowing for differential background mortality rates by strata. Modest differences in health gains (HALYs) resulted from rescaling of sub-population mortality and incidence rates to ensure consistency with the aggregate population.

CONCLUSION

Policy makers ideally need to know the effect of population interventions estimated both overall, and by socioeconomic and other strata. We demonstrate a method and provide code to do this routinely within proportional multistate lifetable simulation models and similar Markov models.

Trends of Healthy Life Expectancy of the Elderly in China in 1994-2015: Revisiting From the Perspective of Morbidity Transition

Research on healthy life expectancy (HLE) in China has been fueled by a spate of new data sources and studies, yet no consensus is reached on the pattern of HLE changes and the underlying mechanism. This study examined the change of HLE in China over 20 years with long term national data. Health status, measured by activities of daily living, is combined with mortality to calculate the disability-free life expectancy by the Sullivan method. The results show that the HLE rose slower than life expectancy (LE) in 1994-2004, indicating morbidity expansion. However, in 2010-2015, the proportion of HLE to LE increased, manifesting morbidity compression. A counterfactual analysis further shows that health improvement has been increasingly important in increasing HLE in 2010-2015, despite the dominance of mortality decline. The findings suggest that morbidity can transition between compression, expansion and dynamic equilibrium over a long period due to different combinations of mortality and health improvements. Given the limited data in this study, whether and how morbidity transitions unfold in the future remains open and requires further research.

Prevalence of locomotive syndrome in Japanese patients more than 10 years after total hip arthroplasty: A cross-sectional cohort study

BACKGROUND

Locomotive syndrome (LS) is a high risk condition that requires nursing care. It is important to investigate the prevalence of and factors related to LS to maintain a healthy life expectancy for patients; however, only a few reports have focused on the relationship between LS and total hip arthroplasty (THA). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of LS and to identify factors associated with LS in patients more than 10 years after THA.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional cohort study. Patients were assessed via a mail survey that included items regarding demographic data, cardiometabolic and motor disorders, the incidence of falls, physical activity level, and the 25-question Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale (GLFS-25) questionnaire. LS was defined as having a score ≥16 on the GLFS-25, and the respondents were categorized into two groups: an LS group and a non-LS group. The prevalence of LS was calculated in each gender and age group. Differences in variables between the groups were determined using the unpaired t-test and chi-squared test.

RESULTS

A total of 593 patients were included in the study (mean age, 70.4 years; 525/593 females). According to the GLFS-25, 164 patients (27.7%; 21.1% men and 28.8% women) were classified as having LS, which increased with age. In addition, compared with the non-LS group, the LS group had a significantly higher prevalence of motor diseases, cardiometabolic diseases, and falls and significantly lower levels of activity.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that the prevalence of LS in patients more than 10 years after THA is 27.7%. The result suggest that the prevalence of LS in patients more than 10 years after THA is similar to the prevalence of LS in the general elderly population. Furthermore, LS is related to not only motor diseases but also cardiometabolic diseases.

Association between the Mediterranean Diet Score and Healthy Life Expectancy: A Global Comparative Study

OBJECTIVES

Extending healthy life expectancy (HALE), defined as the average number of years that a person can expect to live in "full health" by taking into account years lived in less than full health due to disease and/or injury, is a common topic worldwide. This study aims to clarify the relationships between the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) and life expectancy (LE) and HALE globally using publicly available international data.

SETTING

Analyses were conducted on 130 countries with populations of 1 million or more for which all data were available. Individual countries were scored from 0 to 9 to indicate adherence to the Mediterranean diet according to the MDS scoring method. The supply of vegetables, legumes, fruits and nuts, cereals, fish, and olive oil per 1,000 kcal per country was calculated based on the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database, with a score of 1 for above the median and 0 for below. The same method was used to calculate scores of presumed detrimental components (meat and dairy), with consumption below the median given a value of 1, and consumption above the median given a value of 0. For ethanol, a score of 1 was given for 10g to 50 g of consumption. We investigated the cross-sectional associations between the MDS and LE and HALE at birth in 2009, and the longitudinal associations between the MDS in 2009 and LE and HALE between 2009 and 2019, controlling for covariates at baseline using linear mixed models.

RESULTS

In the cross-sectional analysis, the MDS was significantly positively associated with LE (β=0.906 [95% confidence interval, 0.065-1.747], p=0.037) and HALE (β=0.875 [0.207-1.544], p=0.011) after controlling for all covariates. The longitudinal analysis also revealed significantly positive associations between the MDS and LE (0.621 [0.063-1.178], p=0.030) and HALE (0.694 [0.227-1.161], p=0.004) after controlling for all covariates.

CONCLUSION

The present study, based on an analysis using 10 years of international data, showed that countries with a higher MDS showed a positive association with HALE.

[Healthy life expectancy of people over age 65: results of the Russian epidemiological study EVCALIPT.]

Population health is an important indicator of the general well-being of the population, and it has it's practical significance, as it determines the costs of providing care, social and medical assistance for the elderly. The study presents an assessment of healthy life expectancy indicators of people over age 65 based on the results of the Russian epidemiological study EVCALIPT and a comparison of this results with data from other surveys in Russia and European countries.

Determination of the Awareness about and Need for Health Support Pharmacies as the Provider of Consultation Service about Nutrition Education and Diet-Related Health Promotion by Health Professionals in Japan

Health support pharmacies (HSPs) have been established as a new category of pharmacies in Japan. In addition to prescriptions, HSPs provide several health services, including consultations on diet/nutrition, health foods, and nursing care. Therefore, not only individuals receiving medications but also community residents should have access to HSPs. However, it is unclear whether people are aware of HSPs. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess the awareness about HSPs and determine the need for their services. To this end, we conducted an online cross-sectional questionnaire survey in 10,000 Japanese adults. Approximately 60.2% of the participants were aware of family pharmacies/pharmacists, and 21.8% of these participants had a family pharmacy/pharmacist. Meanwhile, 2.6% of the participants were aware of HSPs, while 9.2% of the participants had only heard of HSPs. Awareness of HSPs was higher among men and younger individuals than among women and older generations. In addition, only 7.2% of the participants were aware of the location of the HSP in their area of residence. At the time at which this survey was conducted, only 3.5% of the participants were using HSP services, and half of them did not perceive the merits of using these services. However, 44.4% of the participants wished to avail themselves of HSP services in the future, and this desire increased with age. Half of the participants wished to use services that were associated with drugs, and the need for other services, such as consultations on diet/nutrition or health foods, was low. In conclusion, there was low awareness about HSPs among the survey participants. However, from our findings, we gathered that if individuals are aware of HSPs, they will wish to use HSP services. To improve healthy life expectancy, it is important to increase awareness about HSPs and their number.

Improving on estimates of the potential relative harm to health from using modern ENDS (vaping) compared to tobacco smoking

BACKGROUND

Although the harm to health from electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) compared to smoked tobacco remains highly uncertain, society and governments still need to know the likely range of the relative harm to inform regulatory policies for ENDS and smoking.

METHODS

We identified biomarkers with specificity of association with different disease groupings e.g., volatile organic compound (VOCs) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and tobacco-specific N´-nitrosamines (TSNAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for all cancers. We conducted a review of recent studies (post January 2017) that compared these biomarkers between people exclusively using ENDS and those exclusively smoking tobacco. The percentage differences in these biomarkers, weighted by study size and adjusted for acrolein from other sources, were used as a proxy for the assumed percentage difference in disease harm between ENDS and smoking. These relative differences were applied to previously modelled estimates of smoking-related health loss (in health-adjusted life-years; HALYs).

RESULTS

The respective relative biomarker levels (ENDS vs smoking) were: 28% for respiratory diseases (five results, three studies); 42% for cancers (five results, four studies); and 35% for cardiovascular (seven results, four studies). When integrated with the HALY impacts by disease, the overall harm to health from ENDS was estimated to be 33% that of smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis, suggests that the use of modern ENDS devices (vaping) could be a third as harmful to health as smoking in a high-income country setting. But this estimate is based on a limited number of biomarker studies and is best be considered a likely upper level of ENDS risk given potential biases in our method (i.e., the biomarkers used being correlated with more unaccounted for toxicants in smoking compared to with using ENDS).