Predictors of belief in conspiracy theory: The role of individual differences in schizotypal traits, paranormal beliefs, social dominance orientation, right wing authoritarianism and conspiracy mentality

The motivations and reputational consequences of spreading conspiracy theories

Some people deliberately spread conspiracy theories. What are the reputational benefits and costs of doing so? The Adaptive-Conspiracism hypothesis proposes that it pays to be vigilant against possible conspiracies, especially in case of intergroup threat. Those who spread conspiracy theories may therefore be seen as valuable group members. Few studies have focused on the reputational impact of spreading a conspiracy theory. We conducted five studies (NPilot = 303; NStudy1 = 388; NStudy2 = 560; NStudy3 = 391; NStudy4 = 373) where participants rated a conspiracy spreader (vs. a neutral person) on a range of personality traits in different intergroup contexts. The results indicated that conspiracy spreaders were consistently perceived as more dominant and less warm than people making non-conspiratorial claims about certain events. Moreover, intergroup conflict attenuated the negative effects of spreading conspiracy theories on competence and warmth. These findings support the notion that besides drawbacks, spreading conspiracy theories can have benefits for the spreader's reputation, particularly during an intergroup conflict.

Conspiracy theory beliefs in the adolescent population: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

While the study of conspiracy theory beliefs is a relatively new research area, there has been a rise in academic interest in recent years. The literature provides evidence of relationships between conspiracy theory beliefs and a range of factors, but the vast majority of studies are limited to adult samples, and it is unclear how such beliefs present in adolescence.

METHODS

The systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA-S format. Relevant databases were searched up to February 23, 2023, for quantitative studies related to adolescent conspiracy theory beliefs.

RESULTS

The six included articles show that conspiracy theory beliefs are present from the start of adolescence, and stable from age 14 upwards, with correlations reported for mistrust and paranoid thinking. Negative relationships were reported for cognitive factors such as ontological confusion, cognitive ability, and actively open-minded thinking. Health-related beliefs correlated with adverse childhood experiences, peer problems, conduct, and sociodemographic factors. Right-wing authoritarianism and anxiety positively correlated with intergroup conspiracy theory beliefs.

CONCLUSION

While some factors from adult studies are replicated in the review, there are differences between age groups. The age at which conspiracy theory beliefs begin to form indicate developmental aspects of adolescence, and possibly childhood, that require further examination. Cognitive factors show promise for interventions and should be explored further. However, the lack of studies using adolescent populations is an issue that must be resolved for a greater understanding of conspiracy theory beliefs and a move toward effective interventions.

The shared psychological roots of prejudice and conspiracy theory belief

The psychological literature on prejudice and conspiracy theory belief have generally remained distinct, implicitly treating the two as unrelated phenomena. In this brief review, I demonstrate that the two phenomena share at least three dispositional precursors: ingroup bias, right-wing ideology (specifically right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation), and need for closure. The evidence I present suggests that prejudice and conspiracy beliefs may be more closely related both conceptually and normatively than existing research has indicated. In particular, they may appear in the same individuals, cause similar kinds of harms in adherents as well as target populations, and respond to similar counteractive interventions.

Psychological variables linked to hesitation toward vaccination against COVID-19 among late adolescents and young adults: The role of magical thinking and right-wing authoritarianism

INTRODUCTION

Several studies on the predisposition to be subjected to vaccination have shown that vaccine hesitation is a global phenomenon influenced by a lack of knowledge and awareness, as well as perceived risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to investigate the mediating role of right-wing authoritarianism in the relationship between magical thinking and positive attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines (i.e. trust of vaccine benefits, worries over unforeseen future effects, concerns about commercial profits, preference for natural immunity).

METHOD

The sample consisted of 201 Italian young adults, 49 males (24.4%), and 152 females (75.6%), aged between 18 and 25. Data were collected during 2022.

RESULTS

The results confirmed the role of right-wing authoritarianism as a mediator for magical thinking on positive vaccine attitudes. Findings indicated a positive association between right-wing authoritarianism and magical thinking and a negative relationship of both the aforementioned variables on positive vaccine attitudes. SEM analyses showed a direct positive association from magical thinking to right-wing authoritarianism and a direct negative association from right-wing authoritarianism to trust of vaccine benefits, to low worries over unforeseen future effects, to lack of concerns about commercial profits and to low preference for natural immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight that common contribution of odd or magical beliefs and right-wing authoritarianism may slow the spread of vaccines among late adolescents and young adults. Our findings provide insight on what effective communication with vaccine-resistant individuals should look like in order to increase the chances of reaching vaccine-hesitant individuals.

Differentiating paranoia and conspiracy mentality using a network approach

Although mostly considered distinct, conspiracy mentality and paranoia share conceptual similarities (e.g., persecutory content, resistance to disconfirming evidence). Using self-report data from a large and multinational online sample (N = 2510; from the UK, the US, Hong Kong, Germany, and Australia), we examined whether paranoia and conspiracy mentality represent distinct latent constructs in exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Utilising network analysis, we then explored common and unique correlates of paranoia and conspiracy mentality while accounting for their shared variance. Across sites, paranoia and conspiracy mentality presented distinct, yet weakly correlated (r = 0.26), constructs. Both were associated with past traumatic experiences, holding negative beliefs about the self and other people, sleep problems, and a tendency to worry. However, paranoia was related to increased negative affect (i.e., anxiety) and decreased social support, whereas the opposite pattern was observed for conspiracy mentality (i.e., decreased anxiety and depression, increased social support). Paranoia and conspiracy mentality are related but not the same constructs. Their similar and distinct correlates point to common and unique risk factors and underlying mechanisms.

Conspiracy thinking and the long historical shadow of Romanticism on authoritarian politics

Background

Similar effect sizes have been reported for the effects of conspiracy, pseudoscientific, and paranormal beliefs on authoritarian attitudes, which points to a conceptual problem at the heart of the conspiracy literature, namely lack of clarity as to what uniquely defines conspiracy beliefs and whether those unique elements contribute distinctly to authoritarian ideologies. To our knowledge, this is the first study to test empirically the predictive power of variance unique to each construct against covariance shared among these constructs when predicting authoritarian and anti-democratic attitudes.

Methods

Online survey was administered to 314 participants in 2021 that included a battery of demographic and psychological measures. Hierarchical factor models were used to isolate unique variance from shared covariance among responses to items representing conspiracy, paranormal and pseudoscientific beliefs. Structural equation models were used to test their unique and shared effects on authoritarian and anti-democratic attitudes.

Results

We found that our combined measurement model of paranormal thinking, conspiracism, and pseudoscience exhibited exceptional model fit, and that each construct was strongly predictive of both SDO and RWA (r = 0.73-0.86). Once the shared covariance was partitioned into a higher order factor, the residual uniqueness in each first order factors was either negatively related or unrelated to authoritarian and anti-democratic attitudes. Moreover, the higher order factor explained the gross majority of variance in conspiracy (R2 = 0.81) paranormal (R2 = 0.81) and pseudoscientific (R2 = 0.95) beliefs and was a far stronger predictor (β = 0.85, p < 0.01) of anti-democratic attitudes than political partisanship (β = 0.17, p < 0.01). Strong partisan identifiers of both parties showed much higher romanticism scores than party moderates.

Conclusion and limitations

When predicting authoritarian and anti-democratic attitudes, we found no empirically unique contributions of conspiracy beliefs. Instead, we found that a shared factor, representing a 'romantic' mindset was the main predictor of authoritarian and anti-democratic attitudes. This finding potentially explains failures of interventions in stopping the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theory researchers should refocus on the shared features that conspiracy thinking has with other unwarranted epistemic beliefs to better understand how to halt the spread of misinformation, conspiracy thinking, anti-science attitudes, and even global authoritarianism.

Social Worldviews Predict the General Factor of Paranormal and Generic Conspiracist Beliefs

Even though wide access to any warranted information in the modern age, the problem of unfounded belief is still relevant, since these beliefs often lead to negative consequences (e.g., vaccination refusal, homeopathic treatment, etc.). The aim of this study was testing the relationship of social worldviews with paranormal beliefs and conspiracy beliefs. We assumed dimensionality hypothesis based on functional standpoint that there should be a general factor (underlying all the domains of paranormal beliefs and generic conspiracist beliefs), which has associations with the social worldviews as well. Derived our analysis from the survey of 228 participants (M_age = 30.6, SD = 11.7), we found that (a) the structure of paranormal and generic conspiracist beliefs can be described by a bifactor model; (b) the general factor of paranormal and generic conspiracist beliefs in the bifactor model was positively associated with global belief in just world and dangerous worldview; (c) paranormal beliefs were positively associated with global belief in just world and negatively associated with competitive worldview; (d) generic conspiracist beliefs were positively associated with dangerous worldview, competitive worldview, and zero-sum game belief; (e) contrary to our hypotheses, there was no evidence for any negative association of paranormal beliefs with dangerous worldview or zero-sum game belief and for any negative association of generic conspiracist beliefs with global belief in just world. We claim that the unfounded beliefs can be of some functional nature, demonstrating a connection with social worldviews, which opens up new perspectives for considering this problem within the framework of social psychology.

The role of conspiracy mindset in reducing support for child vaccination for COVID-19 in the United States

Introduction

We have previously proposed and tested a model that predicts reluctance to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US from embrace of a conspiracy mindset that distrusts the federal health agencies of the US government and regards their intentions as malevolent. In this study, we tested the model's ability to predict adult support for COVID vaccination of children ages 5-11 after the vaccine was approved for this age group.

Methods

Relying on a national panel that was established in April 2021 (N = 1941) and followed until March of 2022, we examined the relation between conspiratorial thinking measured at baseline and belief in misinformation and conspiracies about COVID vaccines, trust in various health authorities, perceived risk of COVID to children, and belief in conspiracy theories about the pandemic's origin and impact. In addition, we tested a structural equation model (SEM) in which conspiracy mindset predicted adult support for childhood vaccination for COVID in January and March of 2022 as well as the adults own vaccination status and their willingness to recommend vaccinating children against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR).

Results

The model accounted for 76% of the variance in support for childhood vaccination for COVID-19; the relation between the mindset and support for vaccination was entirely mediated by baseline assessments of misinformation, trust, risk, and acceptance of pandemic conspiracy theories.

Discussion

The SEM replicated the prior test of the model, indicating that a conspiracy mindset present among at least 17% of the panel underlies their resistance to vaccinate both themselves and children. Efforts to counteract the mindset will likely require the intervention of trusted spokespersons who can overcome the skepticism inherent in conspiratorial thinking about the government and its health-related agencies' recommendations for a particular vaccine.

Contemporary trends in psychological research on conspiracy beliefs. A systematic review

Background

The number of psychological studies on conspiracy beliefs has been systematically growing for about a dozen years, but in recent years, the trend has intensified. We provided a review covering the psychological literature on conspiracy beliefs from 2018 to 2021. Halfway through this period, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, accompanied by an explosion of movements based on conspiracy theories, intensifying researchers' interest in this issue.

Methods

Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, the review systematically searched for relevant journal articles published between 2018 and 2021. A search was done on Scopus and Web of Science (only peer-reviewed journals). A study was included if it contained primary empirical data, if specific or general conspiracy belief(s) were measured and if its correlation with at least one other psychological variable was reported. All the studies were grouped for the descriptive analysis according to the methodology used, the participants' characteristics, the continent of origin, the sample size, and the conspiracy beliefs measurement tools. Due to substantial methodological heterogeneity of the studies, narrative synthesis was performed. The five researchers were assigned specific roles at each stage of the analysis to ensure the highest quality of the research.

Results

Following the proposed methodology, 308 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility and 274 articles (417 studies) meeting the inclusion criteria were identified and included in the review. Almost half of the studies (49.6%) were conducted in European countries. The vast majority of the studies (85.7%) were carried out on samples of adult respondents. The research presents antecedents as well as (potential) consequences of conspiracy beliefs. We grouped the antecedents of conspiracy beliefs into six categories: cognitive (e.g., thinking style) motivational (e.g., uncertainty avoidance), personality (e.g., collective narcissism), psychopathology (e.g., Dark Triad traits), political (e.g., ideological orientation), and sociocultural factors (e.g., collectivism).

Conclusion and limitations

The research presents evidence on the links between conspiracy beliefs and a range of attitudes and behaviors considered unfavorable from the point of view of individuals and of the society at large. It turned out that different constructs of conspiracy thinking interact with each other. The limitations of the study are discussed in the last part of the article.

What Are Conspiracy Theories? A Definitional Approach to Their Correlates, Consequences, and Communication

Conspiracy theories are abundant in social and political discourse, with serious consequences for individuals, groups, and societies. However, psychological scientists have started paying close attention to them only in the past 20 years. We review the spectacular progress that has since been made and some of the limitations of research so far, and we consider the prospects for further progress. To this end, we take a step back to analyze the defining features that make conspiracy theories different in kind from other beliefs and different in degree from each other. We consider how these features determine the adoption, consequences, and transmission of belief in conspiracy theories, even though their role as causal or moderating variables has seldom been examined. We therefore advocate for a research agenda in the study of conspiracy theories that starts-as is routine in fields such as virology and toxicology-with a robust descriptive analysis of the ontology of the entity at its center.

Dispositional and ideological factor correlate of conspiracy thinking and beliefs

This study explored how the Big Five personality traits, as well as measures of personality disorders, are related to two different measures of conspiracy theories (CTs)The two measures correlated r = .58 and were applied to examine generalisability of findings. We also measured participants (N = 397) general knowledge levels and ideology in the form of religious and political beliefs. Results show that the Big Five and ideology are related to CTs but these relationships are generally wiped out by the stronger effects of the personality disorder scales. Two personality disorder clusters (A and B) were significant correlates of both CT measures, in both cases accounting for similar amounts of variance (20%). The personality disorders most predictive of conspiracy theories were related to the A cluster, characterized by schizotypal symptoms such as oddities of thinking and loose associations. These findings were corroborated by an additional analysis using Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA). LSA demonstrated that the items measuring schizotypal and related symptoms are cognitively related to both our measures of CTs. The implications for the studying of CTs is discussed, and limitations are acknowledged.

Deconstructing the Conspiratorial Mind: the Computational Logic Behind Conspiracy Theories

In the social sciences, research on conspiracy theories is accumulating fast. To contribute to this research, here I introduce a computational model about the psychological processes underlying support for conspiracy theories. The proposal is that endorsement of these theories depends on three factors: prior beliefs, novel evidence, and expected consequences. Thanks to the latter, a conspiracy hypothesis might be selected because it is the costliest to reject even if it is not the best supported by evidence and by prior beliefs (i.e., even if it is not the most accurate). In this way, the model implies a key role for motivated reasoning. By examining the social conditions that favour the success of conspiracy theories, the paper embeds the model, whose focus is primarily psychological, within the broader social context, and applies this analysis to probe the role of conspiracy theories within contemporary Western societies. Altogether, the paper argues that a computational outlook can contribute to elucidate the socio-psychological dynamics underlying the attractiveness of conspiracy theories.

Are Republicans and Conservatives More Likely to Believe Conspiracy Theories?

A sizable literature tracing back to Richard Hofstadter's The Paranoid Style (1964) argues that Republicans and conservatives are more likely to believe conspiracy theories than Democrats and liberals. However, the evidence for this proposition is mixed. Since conspiracy theory beliefs are associated with dangerous orientations and behaviors, it is imperative that social scientists better understand the connection between conspiracy theories and political orientations. Employing 20 surveys of Americans from 2012 to 2021 (total n = 37,776), as well as surveys of 20 additional countries spanning six continents (total n = 26,416), we undertake an expansive investigation of the asymmetry thesis. First, we examine the relationship between beliefs in 52 conspiracy theories and both partisanship and ideology in the U.S.; this analysis is buttressed by an examination of beliefs in 11 conspiracy theories across 20 more countries. In our second test, we hold constant the content of the conspiracy theories investigated-manipulating only the partisanship of the theorized villains-to decipher whether those on the left or right are more likely to accuse political out-groups of conspiring. Finally, we inspect correlations between political orientations and the general predisposition to believe in conspiracy theories over the span of a decade. In no instance do we observe systematic evidence of a political asymmetry. Instead, the strength and direction of the relationship between political orientations and conspiricism is dependent on the characteristics of the specific conspiracy beliefs employed by researchers and the socio-political context in which those ideas are considered.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09812-3.

Impact of conspiracist ideation and psychotic-like experiences in patients with schizophrenia during the COVID-19 crisis

Conspiratorial belief is a type of argument that accepts implausible explanations in situations of great uncertainty or mystery. Claiming that the coronavirus is an artificial fabrication of laboratories is an example of conspiracist belief. The aim of this research was to analyze the impact of conspiracist ideation and psychotic-like experiences in patients with schizophrenia, patients with other mental disorders, and participants with no psychiatric history with a 132-day follow-up during the COVID-19 crisis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied and Bayesian inferences were carried out. The results conclude that conspiracist ideation and psychotic-like experiences increased significantly after 132 days of social-health restrictions in the general population. However, psychotic-like experiences did not increase in patients with schizophrenia. Conspiracist ideation has a quantitative degradation similar to the continuum model of psychosis; it is present both in patients with schizophrenia and in those participants with no clinical history. The psychopathological value of conspiracist ideation within the spectrum of psychosis is discussed.

Transdiagnostic Mechanisms of Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adults and Families in Germany: Study Protocol of a Cross-Sectional and 1-Year Longitudinal Study

Background: Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, psychological distress is increased. Transdiagnostic mechanisms, including trauma, personality functioning, mentalizing and emotion regulation are considered relevant to the development and maintenance of mental health problems and therefore may play a role in individuals’ reactions to the pandemic.

Aim: To identify moderating and mediating factors associated with pandemic-related distress and mental health problems in adults and families, we aim to investigate the interactions of interpersonal trauma (childhood trauma and domestic violence), psychological capacities (personality functioning, mentalizing and emotion regulation) and pandemic-related adversity on psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, we aim to investigate behavioral and cognitive consequences of the pandemic (e.g., media consumption, vaccination status, conspiracy beliefs).

Methods: Using an online-based cross-sectional and longitudinal design, we will investigate a sample of adult participants recruited via online platforms in German-speaking countries over the course of 1 year with four measurements points via self-report instruments (personality functioning: PID5BF +; mentalizing: MentS, PRFQ; emotion regulation: DERS-SF; mental health problems: PHQ-9, GAD-7; a composite pandemic-related stress score). Structural equation and multi-level modeling will be performed for data analyses.

Implications: This study will provide data on the moderating and mediating effects of trauma, personality functioning and mentalizing during the pandemic in a large community sample, particularly on vulnerable groups like families. Identifying transdiagnostic mechanisms of psychopathology in the course of a pandemic crisis may provide valuable insight for the development of pre- and intervention measures for potential psychological distress during and post the pandemic.

The Politics of Vaccine Hesitancy: An Ideological Dual-Process Approach

Ideological convictions are known to shape attitudes and behavior in various life domains. Based on existing psychological analyses of political ideology, we use an ideological dual-process approach to explain people’s vaccine hesitancy, which distinguishes between authoritarian (right-wing authoritarianism [RWA]) and hierarchical (social dominance orientation [SDO]) facets of conservatism as potential antecedents of vaccination attitudes. In a large international study performed in Germany ( N = 1,210), Poland ( N = 1,209), and the United Kingdom ( N = 1,222), we tested the roles of SDO and RWA in predicting vaccination hesitancy, as well as cross-cultural universality of the pattern of relationships between political ideologies and attitudes toward vaccines. In all three countries, high SDO was associated with higher vaccine hesitancy, whereas high RWA was associated with lower vaccine hesitancy. These findings contribute to our understanding of the distinctive roles that these two facets of right-wing ideology might play in the domain of public health.

Anxious and Angry: Emotional Responses to the COVID-19 Threat

The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic elicits a vast amount of anxiety. In the current study, we investigated how anxiety related to COVID-19 is associated with support for and compliance with governmental hygiene measures, and how these are influenced by populist attitudes, anger at the government, and conspiracy mentalities. We conducted an online survey in April 2020 in four different countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK; N = 2,031) using a cross-sectional design. Results showed that (1) anxiety related to COVID-19 is associated with conspiracy beliefs, anger at the government, and populist attitudes, and (2) support for and compliance with hygiene measures are both positively predicted by anxiety related to COVID-19; however, (3) support for hygiene measures is also predicted by populist attitudes and negatively by conspiracy mentalities, whereas compliance with hygiene measures is more strongly predicted by anger at transgressors (anger at people transgressing the hygiene measures). Consequently, although anxiety related to COVID-19 concerns the health of individual people, it also has political and social implications: anxiety is associated with an increase in anger, either at transgressors or the government.

Dissociation, Cognitive Reflection and Health Literacy Have a Modest Effect on Belief in Conspiracy Theories about COVID-19

Understanding the predictors of belief in COVID-related conspiracy theories and willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19 may aid the resolution of current and future pandemics. We investigate how psychological and cognitive characteristics influence general conspiracy mentality and COVID-related conspiracy theories. A cross-sectional study was conducted based on data from an online survey of a sample of Czech university students (n = 866) collected in January 2021, using multivariate linear regression and mediation analysis. Sixteen percent of respondents believed that COVID-19 is a hoax, and 17% believed that COVID-19 was intentionally created by humans. Seven percent of the variance of the hoax theory and 10% of the variance of the creation theory was explained by (in descending order of relevance) low cognitive reflection, low digital health literacy, high experience with dissociation and, to some extent, high bullshit receptivity. Belief in COVID-related conspiracy theories depended less on psychological and cognitive variables compared to conspiracy mentality (16% of the variance explained). The effect of digital health literacy on belief in COVID-related theories was moderated by cognitive reflection. Belief in conspiracy theories related to COVID-19 was influenced by experience with dissociation, cognitive reflection, digital health literacy and bullshit receptivity.