Acute pancreatitis in Chile: A multicenter study on epidemiology, etiology and clinical outcome. Retrospective analysis of clinical files

Analysis of Risk Factors for Severe Acute Pancreatitis in the Early Period (<24 h) After Admission

BACKGROUND

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has high mortality. Early identification of high-risk factors that may progress to SAP and active intervention measures may improve the prognosis of SAP patients.

OBJECTIVE

Clinical data within 24 h after admission were retrospectively analyzed to provide an evidence for early screening of high-risk factors in patients with SAP.

METHODS

A review of clinical data of acute pancreatitis patients from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022, was conducted. We compared the clinical data of SAP and non-SAP patients, and a multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify the independent predictors of SAP. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of SAP was drawn for continuous numerical variables to calculate the optimal clinical cutoff value of each variable, and the predictive value of each variable was compared by the area under the ROC curve.

RESULTS

Based on the multivariate logistic regression analysis of Age (odds ratio (OR), 1.032;95% confident interval (CI),1.018-1.046, p < 0.001), body mass index (BMI) (OR, 1.181; 95% CI,1.083-1.288, p < 0.001), Non-HTGAP (nonhypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis) (OR, 2.098; 95% CI,1.276-3.45, p = 0.003), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR,1.072; 95% CI,1.034-1.111, p < 0.001), procalcitonin (PCT) (OR, 1.060; 95% CI, 1.027-1.095, p < 0.001), serum calcium (Ca) (OR,0.121; 95% CI, 0.050-0.292, p < 0.001), computed tomography severity index (CTSI) ≥4 (OR,12.942;95% CI,7.267-23.049, p < 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for SAP. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and optimal CUT-OFF values of continuous numerical variables for predicting SAP were Age (0.6079,51.5), BMI (0.6,23.25), WBC (0.6701,14.565), PCT (0.7086, 0.5175), Ca (0.7787,1.965), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Age, BMI, non-HTGAP, WBC, PCT, serum Ca and CTSI≥4 have good predictive value for SAP.

Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis and Dynamic Nomogram for Risk Assessment

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is easily confused with abdominal pain symptoms, and it could lead to serious complications for pregnant women and fetus, the mortality was as high as 3.3% and 11.6-18.7%, respectively. However, there is still lack of sensitive laboratory markers for early diagnosis of APIP and authoritative guidelines to guide treatment.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy, establish, and evaluate the dynamic prediction model of risk factors in acute pancreatitis in pregnancy patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Clinical data of APIP patients and non-pregnant acute pancreases patients who underwent regular antenatal check-ups during the same period were collected. The dataset after propensity matching was randomly divided into training set and verification set at a ratio of 7:3. The model was constructed using Logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, R language and other methods. The training set model was used to construct the diagnostic nomogram model and the validation set was used to validate the model. Finally, the accuracy and clinical practicability of the model were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 111 APIP were included. In all APIP patients, hyperlipidemic pancreatitis was the most important reason. The levels of serum amylase, creatinine, albumin, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and apolipoprotein A1 were significantly different between the two groups. The propensity matching method was used to match pregnant pancreatitis patients and pregnant non-pancreatic patients 1:1 according to age and gestational age, and the matching tolerance was 0.02. The multivariate logistic regression analysis of training set showed that diabetes, triglyceride, Body Mass Index, white blood cell, and C-reactive protein were identified and entered the dynamic nomogram. The area under the ROC curve of the training set was 0.942 and in validation set was 0.842. The calibration curve showed good predictive in training set, and the calibration performance in the validation set was acceptable. The calibration curve showed the consistency between the nomogram model and the actual probability.

CONCLUSION

The dynamic nomogram model we constructed to predict the risk factors of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy has high accuracy, discrimination, and clinical practicability.

Etiological Changes and Prognosis of Hospitalized Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Over a 15-Year Period

BACKGROUND

The worldwide incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing, but the dominant etiology of AP may vary by country. Mixed etiologies are involved in the increase in the number of AP patients.

AIMS

This study was to analyze the etiological changes and prognosis of AP patients and explore the prognosis of AP patients with mixed etiologies.

METHODS

Using a retrospective analysis method, AP patients hospitalized from January 2007 to December 2021 were selected from a pancreatic center in Nanchang, China. Trends in the main etiologies were analyzed, and the severity and prognosis of different etiologies were compared.

RESULTS

A total of 10,071 patients were included. Cholelithiasis (56.0%), hyperlipidemia (25.3%), and alcohol (6.5%) were the top three etiologies. The proportion of acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) showed a decreasing trend, while the proportion of hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP) and alcoholic AP showed an increasing trend (all ptrend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure and necrotizing pancreatitis was higher in patients with HTGP than in those with AP induced by other etiologies (all p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in mortality among patients with different etiologies. Patients with AP due to a mixed hypertriglyceridemia-alcoholic etiology had higher ICU admission rates and were more severe than those with AP induced by other mixed etiologies.

CONCLUSION

In the past 15 years, the proportion of ABP has trended downward, while those of HTGP and alcoholic AP have risen. Among patients with mixed etiologies, those with a mixed hypertriglyceridemia-alcoholic etiology had a worse prognosis.

Survey on initial management of acute pancreatitis in Latin America

OBJECTIVE

The population of Latin America harbors the highest incidence of gallstones and acute biliary pancreatitis, yet little is known about the initial management of acute pancreatitis in this large geographic region.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of responses from physicians based in Latin America to the international multidisciplinary survey on the initial management of acute pancreatitis. The questionnaire asked about management of patients during the first 72h after admission, related to fluid therapy, prescription of prophylactic antibiotics, feeding and nutrition, and timing of cholecystectomy. Adherence to clinical guidelines in this region was compared with the rest of the world.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 358 participants from 19 Latin American countries (median age, 39 years [33-47]; women, 27.1%). The proportion of participants in Latin America vs. the rest of the world who chose non-compliant options with clinical guidelines were: prescription of fluid therapy rate other than moderate (42.2% vs 34.3%, P=.02); prescription of prophylactic antibiotics for severe (10.6% vs 18.0%, P=.002), necrotizing (28.5% vs 36.9%, P=.008), or systemic inflammatory response syndrome-associated (21.2% vs 30.6%, P=.002) acute pancreatitis; not starting an oral diet to patients with oral tolerance (77.9% vs 71.1%, P=.02); and delayed cholecystectomy (16.2% vs 33.8%, P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Surveyed physicians in Latin America are less likely to prescribe antibiotics and to delay cholecystectomy when managing patients in the initial phase of acute pancreatitis compared to physicians in the rest of the world. Feeding and nutrition appear to require the greatest improvement.

Epidemiological trends in acute pancreatitis: A retrospective cohort in a tertiary center over a seven year period

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) remains a major cause of hospitalization and mortality with important health-related costs worldwide. Using an electronic database of a large tertiary center, we estimated the incidence, etiology, severity and costs of hospitalized AP cases in southern Romania.

AIM

To estimate the incidence, cost and tobacco usage of hospitalized AP cases in southern Romania and to update and upgrade the knowledge we have on the etiology, severity (in regard to Revised Atlanta Classification), outcome, morphology and local complications of AP.

METHODS

We performed an electronic health care records search on AP patients treated at Emergency University Hospital of Bucharest (Spitalul Universitar de Urgență București) between 2015 and 2022. The incidence, etiology, and severity were calculated; potential risk factors were evaluated, and the hospitalization costs of AP were documented and analyzed. The cohort of this study is part of the BUCharest - Acute Pancreatitis Index registry.

RESULTS

A total of 947 consecutive episodes of AP where the patients were hospitalized in the gastroenterology department were analyzed, with 79.45% as 1^st episode and the rest recurrent. The majority of the patients were males (68.9%). Alcoholic (45.7%), idiopathic (16.4%) and biliary (15.2%) were the main causes. The incidence was estimated at 29.2 episodes/100000 people. The median length of stay was 7 d. The median daily cost was 747.96 RON (165 EUR). There was a high prevalence of active tobacco smokers (68.5%). The prevalence of severe disease was 11.1%. The admission rate to the intensive care unit was 4.6%, with a mortality rate of 38.6%. The overall mortality was 5.5%.

CONCLUSION

We estimated the incidence of AP at 29.2 episodes that required hospitalization per 100000 people. The majority of our cases were found in males (68.9%) and were related to alcohol abuse (45.7%). Out of the cases we were able to find data regarding tobacco usage, the majority were active smokers (68.5%). Most patients had a mild course (54.4%), with a mortality rate of 5.5%. Interstitial AP prevailed (45.3%). The median daily cost of hospitalization was 747.96 RON (165 EUR).

Mechanisms linking hypertriglyceridemia to acute pancreatitis

Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) is a metabolic disorder, defined when serum or plasma triglyceride concentration (seTG) is >1.7 mM. HTG can be categorized as mild to very severe groups based on the seTG value. The risk of acute pancreatitis (AP), a serious disease with high mortality and without specific therapy, increases with the degree of HTG. Furthermore, even mild or moderate HTG aggravates AP initiated by other important etiological factors, including alcohol or bile stone. This review briefly summarizes the pathophysiology of HTG, the epidemiology of HTG-induced AP and the clinically observed effects of HTG on the outcomes of AP. Our main focus is to discuss the pathophysiological mechanisms linking HTG to AP. HTG is accompanied by an increased serum fatty acid (FA) concentration, and experimental results have demonstrated that these FAs have the most prominent role in causing the consequences of HTG during AP. FAs inhibit mitochondrial complexes in pancreatic acinar cells, induce pathological elevation of intracellular Ca²⁺ concentration, cytokine release and tissue injury, and reduce the function of pancreatic ducts. Furthermore, high FA concentrations can induce respiratory, kidney, and cardiovascular failure in AP. All these effects may contribute to the observed increased AP severity and frequent organ failure in patients. Importantly, experimental results suggest that the reduction of FA production by lipase inhibitors can open up new therapeutic options of AP. Overall, investigating the pathophysiology of HTG-induced AP or AP in the presence of HTG and determining possible treatments are needed.

International multidisciplinary survey on the initial management of acute pancreatitis: Perspective of point-of-care specialists focused on daily practice

BACKGROUND

The initial management of patients with acute pancreatitis impacts both morbidity and mortality. Point-of-care decisions have been reported to differ from clinical guideline recommendations.

METHODS

An online anonymous questionnaire was distributed through scientific associations and social media using REDCap. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the characteristics of participants associated with compliance with the recommendations.

RESULTS

A total of 1054 participants from 94 countries completed the questionnaire; median age (IQR) was 39 (32-47) years; 30.7% were women. Among the participants, 37% opted for nonmoderate flow of i.v. fluid, 31% for fluid type other than Ringer's lactate; 73.4% were in favor of nil per os to patients who could eat, 75.5% for other than enteral feeding to patients with oral intolerance; 15.5% used prophylactic antibiotic in patients with severe acute pancreatitis, 34.1% in necrotizing acute pancreatitis, and 27.4% in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome; 27.8% delayed cholecystectomy after biliary acute pancreatitis. Participants with publications in PubMed on acute pancreatitis showed better compliance (OR, 1.62; 95% CI: 1.15-2.32; P = .007) with recommendations of the clinical guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

Feeding and nutrition require the greatest improvement efforts, but also the use of prophylactic antibiotics and timing of cholecystectomy should be improved.

Early prediction of acute necrotizing pancreatitis by artificial intelligence: a prospective cohort-analysis of 2387 cases

Pancreatic necrosis is a consistent prognostic factor in acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the clinical scores currently in use are either too complicated or require data that are unavailable on admission or lack sufficient predictive value. We therefore aimed to develop a tool to aid in necrosis prediction. The XGBoost machine learning algorithm processed data from 2387 patients with AP. The confidence of the model was estimated by a bootstrapping method and interpreted via the 10th and the 90th percentiles of the prediction scores. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to quantify the contribution of each variable provided. Finally, the model was implemented as an online application using the Streamlit Python-based framework. The XGBoost classifier provided an AUC value of 0.757. Glucose, C-reactive protein, alkaline phosphatase, gender and total white blood cell count have the most impact on prediction based on the SHAP values. The relationship between the size of the training dataset and model performance shows that prediction performance can be improved. This study combines necrosis prediction and artificial intelligence. The predictive potential of this model is comparable to the current clinical scoring systems and has several advantages over them.

Risk Factors for Recurrent Pancreatitis After First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (P<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95%CI: 0.80-0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients.

The Effect of Admission Serum Triglyceride Level on the Prediction of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

Purpose

Previous studies indicated that the serum triglyceride level in patients with acute pancreatitis positively correlated with the severity of the disease among the general population. Despite the physiological hypertriglyceridemia in pregnant women, there are no reports on the relationship between serum triglyceride level and the severity of acute pancreatitis in pregnant (APIP) women. This study explores the relationship between serum triglyceride levels and the severity of APIP.

Patients and Methods

Clinical information of APIP patients admitted to the Shengjing Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University was gathered from January 2012 to December 2020 to conduct retrospective research. The participating patients were divided into mild, moderately severe, and severe acute pancreatitis. The clinical outcomes of patients with different serum triglyceride levels (0–2.3 mmol/L, 2.23–5.65 mmol/L, 5.65–11.2 mmol/l, ≥11.2 mmol/L) were analyzed by performing ordinal logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to calculate the threshold value of serum triglyceride concentration that can effectively predict the occurrence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Results

Hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) occurred in 47% of APIP patients within the group, with a high prevalence among the Han population. In the present study, the serum triglyceride concentration correlated positively with the severity of APIP (r=0.403, P < 0.05). The adjusted logistic model demonstrated that relative to nominal triglyceride levels, the OR value of SAP were 1.036 (95% CI: 0.401–2.677), 3.429 (95% CI: 1.269–9265), 8.329 (95% CI: 3.713–18.682) with triglyceride at the level of 2.23–5.65 mmol/L, 5.65–11.2 mmol/l and ≥11.2 mmol/L. In APIP patients, a triglyceride concentration of 10.7mmol/L or more upon admission was a predictive value for the occurrence of SAP, with a sensitivity of 0.72 and a specificity of 0.65, AUC: 0.708 (95% CI: 0.620–0.796).

Conclusion

As the serum triglyceride level upon admission increased, the frequency of local and systemic complications increased significantly.

Acute biliary pancreatitis has better outcomes but increased resource utilization compared to acute alcohol-induced pancreatitis: insights from a nationwide study

Background

The differences in outcomes between acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) and acute alcohol-induced pancreatitis (AAP) have not been well studied. We sought to examine the differences between ABP and AAP as regards to in-hospital outcomes and resource utilization, using a large nationwide database.

Methods

We queried the National Inpatient Sample databases 2016 and 2017 using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) coding system to identify the patients with a primary diagnosis of AAP and ABP. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay (LOS), hospitalization charge/cost, shock, acute kidney injury (AKI), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and home discharge. Analysis was performed with STATA software.

Results

There was no significant difference in mortality between patients with AAP and ABP (0.42% vs. 0.82%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-1.31; P=0.79). Patients with ABP had a significantly longer LOS (+0.48 days, P<0.001). Patients with ABP had significantly higher adjusted mean hospitalization charges ($+19,958, P<0.001) and costs ($+4,848, P<0.001). Patients with ABP had a significantly lower likelihood of shock (aOR 0.75, 95%CI 0.59-0.95; P=0.02), AKI (aOR 0.76, 95%CI 0.71-0.82; P<0.001) or ICU admission (aOR 0.74, 95%CI 0.62-0.88; P=0.001). They were more likely to be discharged home (aOR 1.26, 95%CI 1.18-1.34; P<0.001).

Conclusion

Although there was no difference in all-cause mortality, patients with ABP had better hospitalization outcomes but greater resource utilization.

Assessment of the course of acute pancreatitis in the light of aetiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The main causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) are biliary disease, alcohol consumption, hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of these aetiological factors on the severity and outcome of AP. Pubmed and Embase were searched between 01/01/2012 and 31/05/2020. Included articles involved adult alcoholic, biliary, HTG- or post-ERCP AP (PAP) patients. Primary outcome was severity, secondary outcomes were organ failures, intensive care unit admission, recurrence rate, pancreatic necrosis, mortality, length of hospital stay, pseudocyst, fluid collection and systematic inflammatory response syndrome. Data were analysed from 127 eligible studies. The risk for non-mild (moderately severe and severe) condition was the highest in HTG-induced AP (HTG-AP) followed by alcoholic AP (AAP), biliary AP (BAP) and PAP. Recurrence rate was significantly lower among BAP vs. HTG-AP or AAP patients (OR = 2.69 and 2.98, 95% CI 1.55–4.65 and 2.22–4.01, respectively). Mortality rate was significantly greater in HTG-AP vs. AAP or BAP (OR = 1.72 and 1.50, 95% CI 1.04–2.84 and 0.96–2.35, respectively), pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in AAP than BAP patients (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.08–2.30). Overall, there is a potential association between aetiology and the development and course of AP. HTG-AP is associated with the highest number of complications. Furthermore, AAP is likely to be more severe than BAP or PAP. Greater emphasis should be placed on determining aetiology on admission.