Glucose levels show independent and dose-dependent association with worsening acute pancreatitis outcomes: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective, international cohort of 2250 acute pancreatitis cases

Glycemic Variability in Pancreatogenic Diabetes Mellitus: characteristics, Risks, Potential Mechanisms, and Treatment Possibilities

In recent years, pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus has garnered significant attention due to its high incidence, complications, and mortality rates. Glycemic variability (GV) can increase the risk of pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus and its associated complications; however, the precise mechanism remains unclear. The effective control of GV is crucial for preventing the onset of pancreatic diabetes mellitus and improving prognosis. Both diet and antidiabetic medications have substantial effects on GV. However, many patients are prescribed suboptimal or even harmful drugs. Therefore, to provide a comprehensive treatment basis for clinicians to prevent and treat pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus, this study aimed to elucidate the relationship between GV and pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus; investigate the potential mechanisms (such as oxidative stress, inflammatory response, insulin resistance, and lipid metabolism disorders); provide lifestyle guidance; and recommend drug selections to reduce the GV in patients with pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus.

Impact of metabolic syndrome components on clinical outcomes in hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hypertriglyceridemia (HTG)-induced acute pancreatitis (AP) is steadily increasing in China, becoming the second leading cause of AP. Clinical complications and outcomes associated with HTG-AP are generally more severe than those seen in AP caused by other etiologies. HTG-AP is closely linked to metabolic dysfunction and frequently coexists with metabolic syndrome or its components. However, the impact of metabolic syndrome components on HTG-AP clinical outcomes remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the impact of metabolic syndrome component burden on clinical outcomes in HTG-AP.

METHODS

In this retrospective study of 255 patients diagnosed with HTG-AP at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, we collected data on patient demographics, clinical scores, complications, and clinical outcomes. Subsequently, we analyzed the influence of the presence and number of individual metabolic syndrome components, including obesity, hyperglycemia, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), on the aforementioned parameters in HTG-AP patients.

RESULTS

This study found that metabolic syndrome components were associated with an increased risk of various complications in HTG-AP, with low HDL-C being the most significant risk factor for clinical outcomes. The risk of complications increased with the number of metabolic syndrome components. Adjusted for age and sex, patients with high-component metabolic syndrome had significantly higher risks of renal failure [odds ratio (OR) = 3.02, 95%CI: 1.12-8.11)], SAP (OR = 5.05, 95%CI: 2.04-12.49), and intensive care unit admission (OR = 6.41, 95%CI: 2.42-16.97) compared to those without metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSION

The coexistence of multiple metabolic syndrome components can synergistically worsen the clinical course of HTG-AP, making it crucial to monitor these components for effective disease management.

Immune-Enhancing Treatment among Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis Patients with Metabolic Abnormalities: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Background/Aims

Metabolic syndrome is common in patients with acute pancreatitis and its components have been reported to be associated with infectious complications. In this post hoc analysis, we aimed to evaluate whether metabolic abnormalities impact the effect of immune-enhancing thymosin alpha-1 (Tα1) therapy in acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) patients.

Methods

All data were obtained from the database for a multicenter randomized clinical trial that evaluated the efficacy of Tα1 in ANP patients. Patients who discontinued the Tα1 treatment prematurely were excluded. The primary outcome was 90-day infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) after randomization. Three post hoc subgroups were defined based on the presence of hyperglycemia, hypertriglyceridemia, or both at the time of randomization. In each subgroup, the correlation between Tα1 and 90-day IPN was assessed using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Multivariable propensity-score methods were used to control potential bias.

Results

Overall, 502 participants were included in this post hoc analysis (248 received Tα1 treatment and 254 received matching placebo treatment). Among them, 271 (54.0%) had hyperglycemia, 371 (73.9%) had hypertriglyceridemia and 229 (45.6%) had both. Tα1 therapy was associated with reduced incidence of IPN among patients with hyperglycemia (18.8% vs 29.7%: hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 0.97; p=0.03), but not in the other subgroups. Additional multivariate regression models using three propensity-score methods yielded similar results.

Conclusions

Among ANP patients with hyperglycemia, immune-enhancing Tα1 treatment was associated with a reduced risk of IPN (ClinicalTrials.gov, Registry number: NCT02473406).

Isoniazid-induced pancreatitis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Isoniazid-induced pancreatitis is a potentially serious adverse drug reaction, however, the frequency of its occurrence is unknown. We conducted a systematic review to explore this adverse drug reaction comprehensively.

METHODS

We performed an advanced search in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Ovid, and Embase for studies that reported isoniazid-induced pancreatitis. From the extracted data of eligible cases, we performed a descriptive analysis and a methodological risk of bias assessment using a standardized tool.

RESULTS

We included 16 case reports from eight countries comprising 16 patients in our systematic review. Most of the isoniazid-induced pancreatitis cases were extrapulmonary tuberculosis cases. We found the mean age across all case reports was 36.7 years. In all the cases, discontinuation of isoniazid resulted in the resolution of pancreatitis.

CONCLUSIONS

We found the latency period for isoniazid-induced pancreatitis to be ranged from 12 to 45 days after initiation of isoniazid therapy. A low threshold for screening of pancreatitis by measuring pancreatic enzymes in patients on isoniazid presenting with acute abdominal pain is recommended. This would facilitate an early diagnosis and discontinuation of isoniazid, thus reducing the severity of pancreatitis and preventing the complications of pancreatitis.

Chronic liver disease is an important risk factor for worse outcomes in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Chronic liver diseases (CLD) affect 1.5 billion patients worldwide, with dramatically increasing incidence in recent decades. It has been hypothesized that the chronic hyperinflammation associated with CLD may increase the risk of a more severe course of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study aims to investigate the underlying impact of CLD on the outcomes of AP. A systematic search was conducted in Embase, Medline, and Central databases until October 2022. Studies investigating patients with acute pancreatitis and CLD, were included in the meta-analysis. A total of 14,963 articles were screened, of which 36 were eligible to be included. CLD was a risk factor for increased mortality with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.53 (CI 1.30 to 4.93, p = 0.01). Furthermore, renal, cardiac, and respiratory failures were more common in the CLD group, with ORs of 1.92 (CI 1.3 to 2.83, p = 0.01), 2.11 (CI 0.93 to 4.77, p = 0.062) and 1.99 (CI 1.08 to 3.65, p = 0.033), respectively. Moreover, the likelihood of developing Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) was significantly higher, with an OR of 1.95 (CI 1.03 to 3.68, p = 0.042). CLD is an important risk factor for worse outcomes in AP pancreatitis, leading to higher mortality and increased rates of local and systemic complications.

Impact of Serum Glucose Levels on Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Analysis

Background and Objectives: The risk of developing glycemic dysregulation up to overt diabetes mellitus (DM) after an episode of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasingly being analyzed. We aimed to assess the changes in serum glucose levels associated with the first episode of AP, as well as the impact of dysglycemia on outcomes such as the severity of inflammation, the length of hospitalization, mortality, and the persistence of hyperglycemia at follow-up. Materials and Methods: All patients experiencing their first episode of AP, who presented to the Emergency Room (ER) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2023, were retrospectively included. On-admission serum glucose and peak serum glucose during hospitalization were the biological markers used to assess glucose metabolism impairment, and they were correlated with outcomes of AP. Results: Our study included 240 patients, 46.67% (112 patients) having a biliary etiology for an AP flare. Patients with COVID-19-associated AP exhibited the highest on-admission and peak serum glucose levels (244.25 mg/dL and 305.5 mg/dL, respectively). A longer hospital stay was noted in patients with peak serum glucose levels of ≥100 mg/dL (9.49 days) compared to normoglycemic patients (6.53 days). Both on-admission and peak glucose levels were associated with elevated CRP levels during hospitalization. A total of 83.78% of patients who received antibiotics exhibited on-admission hyperglycemia, and 72.07% had peak serum glucose levels of ≥100 mg/dL. The presence of hyperglycemia at follow-up was associated with both on-admission and peak serum glucose levels of ≥100 mg/dL, as well as with a longer stay, higher CRP levels, and antibiotic use during index admission. Conclusions: On-admission hyperglycemia predicts a higher inflammatory response in patients at the first episode of AP, while the presence of hyperglycemia during hospitalization is associated with imaging and biological severity and longer hospitalizations, indicating a more severe disease course. Both on-admission and peak in-hospital hyperglycemia were identified as risk factors for sustained hyperglycemia at follow-up.

Risk factors for diabetes mellitus after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Within 5 years of having acute pancreatitis (AP), approximately 20% of patients develop diabetes mellitus (DM), which later increases to approximately 40%. Some studies suggest that the prevalence of prediabetes (PD) and/or DM can grow as high as 59% over time. However, information on risk factors is limited. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing PD or DM following AP.

Methods

We systematically searched three databases up to 4 September 2023 extracting direct, within-study comparisons of risk factors on the rate of new-onset PD and DM in AP patients. When PD and DM event rates could not be separated, we reported results for this composite outcome as PD/DM. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of the 61 studies identified, 50 were included in the meta-analysis, covering 76,797 participants. The studies reported on 79 risk factors, and meta-analysis was feasible for 34 risk factor and outcome pairs. The odds of developing PD/DM was significantly higher after severe and moderately severe AP (OR: 4.32; CI: 1.76-10.60) than mild AP. Hypertriglyceridemic AP etiology (OR: 3.27; CI: 0.17-63.91) and pancreatic necrosis (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.59-19.21) were associated with a higher risk of developing PD/DM. Alcoholic AP etiology (OR: 1.82; CI: 1.09-3.04), organ failure (OR: 3.19; CI: 0.55-18.64), recurrent AP (OR: 1.89; CI: 0.95-3.77), obesity (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.43-2.38), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.10; CI: 1.85-2.38), liver cirrhosis (OR: 2.48; CI: 0.18-34.25), and dyslipidemia (OR: 1.82; CI: 0.68-4.84) were associated with a higher risk of developing DM.

Discussion

Severe and moderately severe AP, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemic etiologies, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, recurrent acute pancreatitis and comorbidities of obesity, chronic kidney disease liver disease, and dyslipidemia are associated with a higher risk of developing PD or DM.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021281983.

Nonlinear Relationship Between Serum Total Cholesterol Levels and the Severity of Hypertriglyceridemic Acute Pancreatitis: A Cohort Study in China

BACKGROUND

The relationship between total cholesterol (TC) levels and the severity of hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTGAP) remains unclear.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the levels of TC at admission with the severity of HTGAP, in order to apply it as a reliable predictor at early stage in clinical practice.

METHODS

We performed a cohort study including 249 patients with AHTGP between November 2012 and April 2022 in XuanWu Hospital. Fasting TC was assayed within 24 h of admission, age, gender, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, drinking, smoking, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein and glucose were recorded as confounding factors. To evaluate the relationship of TC and the severity of HTGAP, we used smooth curve fitting and a segmented regression model with adjustment of confounding factors to analyze the threshold effect between TC and SAP occurrence risk.

RESULTS

249 Patients were enrolled. The incidence of SAP was 25.3% (63/249). A nonlinear relationship between TC level and the severity of HTGAP. 6.09 mmol/L was the optimal TC value associated with the lowest risk of SAP occurrence. Moreover, TC level was negatively correlated with risk of severe HTGAP occurrence for TC < 6.09 mmol/L (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.85, P = 0.014) and positively correlated for TC > 6.09 mmol/L in HTGAP patients (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.26, P = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that serum TC level is nonlinearly associated with the severity of HTGAP, and it can be a reliable predictor for early intervention and intensive care.

Eliminating COVID-19 as the immediate culprit for igniting pancreatitis

The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection on the potential development of pancreatitis is a subject of ongoing debate within academic discourse. Establishing a causal link between COVID-19 and pancreatitis may not be fully supported by relying only on retrospective studies or case reports. This study examined the relationship between COVID-19 phenotypes and pancreatitis by Mendelian randomization (MR) method. The identification of instrumental variables (single nucleotide polymorphisms) that exhibit a robust association with the COVID-19 phenotypes was accomplished through a meticulous process of rigorous screening procedures. We included acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis (CP) as the outcomes in the MR analysis, even though no definitive studies exist between COVID-19 and CP. A direct causal relationship between genetically predicted COVID-19 phenotypes and pancreatitis risk cannot be established. There is an ongoing debate over the designation of COVID-19 as a definitive cause of pancreatitis.

Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment

BACKGROUND

Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP.

METHODS

Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned.

RESULTS

43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

Association between time in range 70-180 mg/dl in early stage and severity with in patients acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

It is not well understood whether glucose control in the early stage of acute pancreatitis(AP) is related to outcome. This study aimed to investigate the association between blood glucose time in range (TIR) of 70-180 mg/dL in the first 72 h(h) on admission and the progression of AP.

METHODS

Individuals admitted with AP to the Gastroenterology Department of the Affiliated Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2017 and December 2021 were included and retrospectively evaluated. The percentage of TIR between 70 and 180 mg/dL in the first 72 h was calculated. According to the progress of AP at discharge, patients were divided into mild pancreatitis(MAP), and moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), or severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) groups. We examined the association between TIR or TIR ≥ 70% and AP severity using logistic regression models stratified by a glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level of 6.5%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to assess the ability of the TIR to predict MSAP or SAP.

RESULTS

A total of 298 individuals were included, of whom 35 developed MSAP or SAP. Logistic regression analyses indicated that TIR was independently associated with the incidence of more serious AP (odds ratio [OR] = 0.962, 95% CI = 0.941-0.983, p = 0.001). This association remained significant in individuals with HbA1c levels ≤ 6.5% (OR = 0.928, 95% CI = 0.888-0.969, p = 0.001). A TIR ≥ 70% was independently associated with reduced severity only in people with well-antecedent controls (OR = 0.238; 95% CI = 0.071-0.802; p = 0.020). TIR was not powerful enough to predict the severity of AP in both patients with poor antecedent glucose control (AUC = 0.641) or with HbA1c < 6.5% (AUC = 0.668).

CONCLUSIONS

TIR was independently associated with severity in patients with AP, particularly those with good antecedent glucose control.

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease is associated with acute pancreatitis with more severe course: Post hoc analysis of a prospectively collected international registry

INTRODUCTION

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a proven risk factor for acute pancreatitis (AP). However, NAFLD has recently been redefined as metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). In this post hoc analysis, we quantified the effect of MAFLD on the outcomes of AP.

METHODS

We identified our patients from the multicentric, prospective International Acute Pancreatitis Registry of the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Next, we compared AP patients with and without MAFLD and the individual components of MAFLD regarding in-hospital mortality and AP severity based on the revised Atlanta classification. Lastly, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

MAFLD had a high prevalence in AP, 39% (801/2053). MAFLD increased the odds of moderate-to-severe AP (OR = 1.43, CI: 1.09-1.89). However, the odds of in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.89, CI: 0.42-1.89) and severe AP (OR = 1.70, CI: 0.97-3.01) were not higher in the MAFLD group. Out of the three diagnostic criteria of MAFLD, the highest odds of severe AP was in the group based on metabolic risk abnormalities (OR = 2.68, CI: 1.39-5.09). In addition, the presence of one, two, and three diagnostic criteria dose-dependently increased the odds of moderate-to-severe AP (OR = 1.23, CI: 0.88-1.70, OR = 1.38, CI: 0.93-2.04, and OR = 3.04, CI: 1.63-5.70, respectively) and severe AP (OR = 1.13, CI: 0.54-2.27, OR = 2.08, CI: 0.97-4.35, and OR = 4.76, CI: 1.50-15.4, respectively). Furthermore, in patients with alcohol abuse and aged ≥60 years, the effect of MAFLD became insignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

MAFLD is associated with AP severity, which varies based on the components of its diagnostic criteria. Furthermore, MAFLD shows a dose-dependent effect on the outcomes of AP.

Predictive value of hyperglycemia on infection in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis

To analyze the predictive value of hyperglycemia on the extrapancreatic infection (EPI) and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) of severe patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). We enrolled 234 patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from July 2017 to July 2022 for a retrospective cohort study. We collected maximum blood glucose values three times after admission to the ICU within 120 h (Glu1: 0-24 h, Glu2: 24-48 h, Glu3: 48-120 h), the levels of leucocyte, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and albumin within 24 h after admission to the ICU, and the BISAP and SIRS scores of all patients within 24 h. EPI was taken as the primary outcome indicator and IPN as the secondary outcome indicator. The accuracy of blood glucose values in predicting acute pancreatitis infection was measured by the area under the curve (AUC). A total of 56 patients appeared EPI. Univariate analysis showed that Glu3 was associated with IPN in critically ill patients with AP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Glu2, Glu3, and SIRS > 48 h were associated with EPI in critically ill patients with AP. The AUCs of Glu2 and Glu3 to predict EPI were 0.805(95%CI: 0.717-0.892) and 0.782(95%CI: 0.685-0.878), respectively, and the cutoff values were 12.60 mmol/L and 14.75 mmol/L, respectively. The AUC of Glu2 combined with Glu3 to predict EPI was 0.812(0.725-0.899). The maximum blood glucose on Day2-5 after admission to the ICU can predict infection in critically ill patients with AP. There are differences in etiology while glucose predicting infection. Patients with hypertriglyceridemia AP need to intervene blood glucose levels more actively and earlier, and control it more strictly.

High Triglyceride-Glucose Index Is Associated with Poor Prognosis in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common gastrointestinal disease worldwide. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is characterized as persistent organ failure with a mortality rate as high as 20-30%. Early assessment of the severity and screening out possible SAP is of great significance. Given that there is still a lack of both convenient and practical tools for evaluating SAP, we conducted this study to explore the association between TyG index and acute pancreatitis prognosis.

METHODS

A total of 353 in-patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the Second Hospital of Shandong University were retrospectively enrolled from January 2018 to November 2021 in this study. According to the Atlanta Classification, they were divided into two groups based on the AP severity. Demographic information and clinical materials were retrospectively collected. The TyG index calculation formula is as follows: ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2]. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software (IBM version 22.0) and Medcalc software. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate independent predictors for SAP. ROC curve was plotted to assess the predictive ability and cutoffs of TyG index.

RESULTS

A total of 353 AP patients were respectively enrolled in this study, of which 47 suffered from SAP. Compared with the non-SAP group, TyG index was significantly higher in the SAP group (10.44 ± 1.55 vs 9.33 ± 1.44, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that TyG index was an independent risk factor for SAP (OR 1.835, 95% CI 1.380-2.442 P < 0.001), with a cutoff of 8.76 for non-HTG/AAP and 11.81 for HTG/AAP by ROC curve. TyG index of patients who suffered from SIRS, OF, APFC, and ANC was higher than those without (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The triglyceride-glucose index is an independent risk factor for SAP. High TyG index is closely related to SAP and AP-related complications.

No evidence for the benefit of PPIs in the treatment of acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Although current guidelines do not recommend the use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in the standard of care of acute pancreatitis (AP), they are often prescribed in clinical practice, mainly for ulcer stress prophylaxis. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we evaluated the association between the use of PPIs in the management of AP and various clinical outcomes. We conducted the systematic research in six databases without restrictions on January 24th, 2022. We investigated adult patient with AP, who were treated with PPI compared to conventional therapy. The pooled odds ratios, mean differences, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated with random effect model. We included six RCTs and three cohort studies, consisting of 28,834 patients. We found a significant decrease in the rate of pancreatic pseudocyst formation in patients who received PPI treatment. PPI use was associated with a higher risk of GI bleeding, however this finding could be due to the patients' comorbid conditions. We found no significant difference in the rates of 7-day mortality, length of hospital stay, and acute respiratory distress syndrome between the groups. The available data on this topic are limited; therefore, further well designed RCTs are needed to evaluate the potential benefits and adverse effects of PPIs in AP.

Elevated serum HbA1c level, rather than previous history of diabetes, predicts the disease severity and clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis

INTRODUCTION

The aim of our study is to explore the value of serum glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in disease severity and clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients with AP were included from January 2013 to December 2020, retrospectively, dividing into normal serum HbA1c level (N-HbA1c) group and high serum HbA1c level (H-HbA1c) group according to the criteria HbA1c <6.5%. We compared patient characteristics, biochemical parameters, disease severity, and clinical outcomes of patients with AP in two groups. Besides, we evaluated the efficacy of serum HbA1c to predict organ failure (OF) in AP patients by receiver operating curve (ROC).

RESULTS

We included 441 patients with AP, including 247 patients in N-HbA1c group and 194 patients in H-HbA1c group. Serum HbA1c level was positively correlated with Atlanta classification, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, local complication, and OF (all p<0.05). Ranson, BISAP (bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis), and CT severity index scores in patients with H-HbA1c were markedly higher than those in patients with N-HbA1c (all p<0.01). ROC showed that the best critical point for predicting the development of OF in AP with serum HbA1c is 7.05% (area under the ROC curve=0.79). Logistic regression analysis showed H-HbA1c was the independent risk factor for the development of OF in AP. Interestingly, in patients with presence history of diabetes and HbA1c <6.5%, the severity of AP was significantly lower than that in H-HbA1c group. Besides, there was no significant difference between with and without history of diabetes in N-HbA1c group.

CONCLUSIONS

Generally known, diabetes is closely related to the development of AP, and strict control of blood glucose can improve the related complications. Thus, the level of glycemic control before the onset of AP (HbA1c as an indicator) is the key to poor prognosis of AP, rather than basic history of diabetes. Elevated serum HbA1c level can become the potential indicator for predicting the disease severity of AP.

Acute Pancreatitis Severity Prediction: It Is Time to Use Artificial Intelligence

The clinical course of acute pancreatitis (AP) can be variable depending on the severity of the disease, and it is crucial to predict the probability of organ failure to initiate early adequate treatment and management. Therefore, possible high-risk patients should be admitted to a high-dependence unit. For risk assessment, we have three options: (1) There are univariate biochemical markers for predicting severe AP. One of their main characteristics is that the absence or excess of these factors affects the outcome of AP in a dose-dependent manner. Unfortunately, all of these parameters have low accuracy; therefore, they cannot be used in clinical settings. (2) Score systems have been developed to prognosticate severity by using 4-25 factors. They usually require multiple parameters that are not measured on a daily basis, and they often require more than 24 h for completion, resulting in the loss of valuable time. However, these scores can foresee specific organ failure or severity, but they only use dichotomous parameters, resulting in information loss. Therefore, their use in clinical settings is limited. (3) Artificial intelligence can detect the complex nonlinear relationships between multiple biochemical parameters and disease outcomes. We have recently developed the very first easy-to-use tool, EASY-APP, which uses multiple continuous variables that are available at the time of admission. The web-based application does not require all of the parameters for prediction, allowing early and easy use on admission. In the future, prognostic scores should be developed with the help of artificial intelligence to avoid information loss and to provide a more individualized risk assessment.

New-onset diabetes secondary to acute pancreatitis: An update

Diabetes is a condition of persistent hyperglycemia caused by the endocrine disorder of the pancreas. Therefore, all pancreatic diseases have the risk of diabetes. In particular, increasing attention has been paid recently to new-onset diabetes secondary to acute pancreatitis (AP). The complications of secondary diabetes have caused a lot of trouble for patients and have garnered increasing attention. At present, the pathophysiological mechanism of new-onset diabetes caused by AP is not clear. This review summarizes the current understanding of new-onset diabetes secondary to AP.

Diabetes is an independent predictor of severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine the effect of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) and whether diabetes is a predictor of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

A total of 181 patients diagnosed with a first attack of AP in our hospital were retrospectively evaluated. AP severity was evaluated and compared between diabetic and non-diabetic patients. Independent factors predicting SAP were identified with a binary logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Of the 164 patients [108 (65.9%) women, 56 (34.1%) men] enrolled in the study, 35 patients (21.3%) had been diagnosed with DM, while 129 (78.7%) did not have DM. SAP, necrotizing pancreatitis, and local complications were observed to be more common among diabetic patients compared to non-diabetic patients (all P<0.001), while the incidences of systemic complications and transient or persistent organ failure were similar between the groups. The incidences of DM and cancer were higher in the SAP group (P<0.001 and P=0.033, respectively). The presence of DM (OR: 3.246, 95% CI: 1.278-8.244, P=0.013), high (≥3) Ranson score (OR: 3.529, 95% CI: 1.342-9.280, P=0.011), and high maximum C-reactive protein level (OR: 1.005, 95% CI: 1.001-1.010, P=0.046) were independent risk factors predicting SAP.

CONCLUSION

DM is both a risk factor for SAP and an independent predictor of SAP. Evaluation of the presence of DM at the time of diagnosis can help predict SAP in a considerably early phase.

EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed.

Methods

The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit‐learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross‐validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross‐validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

Results

The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy‐to‐use web application in the Streamlit Python‐based framework (http://easy‐app.org/).

Conclusions

The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model.