Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

Burden of Gastrointestinal Tumors in Asian Countries, 1990-2021: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Gastrointestinal tumors represent a significant component of the cancer burden in Asia. This study aims to evaluate the burden of gastrointestinal tumors in Asia from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021).

Methods

The absolute incidence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) number and rate of six gastrointestinal tumors(colon and rectum cancer (CRC), stomach cancer (SC), pancreatic cancer (PC), esophageal cancer (EC), liver cancer (LC) and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC)) in 48 Asian countries were extracted from GBD 2021. Differences were analyzed based on gender, age, year, location and socio-demographic index (SDI).

Results

In 2021, SC accounted for the highest disease burden in Asia (DALYs=16.41million [95% UI: 13.70, 19.62]). From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rates of EC, LC, and SC in Asia declined, while the incidence rates of CRC and PC increased significantly, with CRC showing the largest rise (AAPC=1.08 [95% CI: 1.02 to 1.12]). Gastrointestinal tumors DALY rates peaked at age 70 and above, with males generally exhibiting higher rates than females. Furthermore, East Asia bears a higher burden compared to other Asian subregions. A higher SDI correlates with increased DALY rates for PC, but no linear relationship was observed for other gastrointestinal tumors.

Conclusion

The burden of gastrointestinal tumors in Asia remains high and may continue to increase. Therefore, effective prevention and treatment measures are essential to address the challenge posed by gastrointestinal tumors.

Burden of drug use disorders in the United States from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2035: results from the GBD study

BACKGROUND

Drug use disorders (DUDs) have emerged as one of the most significant public health crises, exerting a substantial influence on both community health and socio-economic progress. The United States (US) also suffers a heavy burden, it is necessary to figure out the situation from multiple perspectives and take effective measures to deal with it. Therefore, using the data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021, we evaluated this topic.

METHODS

Annual data on DUDs-related burden were collected from the GBD study 2021. We calculated the indicator of estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate the changing trend of burden. The Bayesian model for age-period-cohort was introduced to forecast the burden.

RESULTS

In 2021, the number and age-standardized rate of prevalence were particularly prominent, with 12,146.95 thousand and 3821.43 per 100,000, respectively. Higher burden was also observed in males, 15-45 years old populations, and opioid use disorders subtype. From 1990 to 2021, the DUDs-related burden increased in the US and all states, especially in West Virginia; and the national death-related burden with the highest increase (EAPC = 7.96). Other significant inverse associations were seen between EAPC, age-standardized rates, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Moreover, in the next 14 years, the projected DUDs burden remains exigent.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of DUDs in the US is heavy and has been enlarging. This study proposes that greater attention should be paid to the strategies in males, the younger population, opioid use disorders, and low-SDI states implemented by decision-makers to achieve goals such as reducing burden.

Initial chemotherapy option for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in patients with adequate performance status

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a highly progressive lethal malignancy, with chemotherapy being the primary treatment modality. This article provides a review of the initial chemotherapy options for PDAC patients with adequate performance status, comparing FOLFIRINOX (oxaliplatin, irinotecan, 5-fluorouracil, and leucovorin) or modified FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GEM-NabP) regimens. The availability of limited evidence from randomized trials restricts a direct comparison between the 2 regimens. Based on our review, (m)FOLFIRINOX yields superior survival outcomes compared to GEM-NabP in metastatic PDAC. For locally advanced PDAC, either (m)FOLFIRINOX or GEM-NabP can be considered initial chemotherapy. In the neoadjuvant setting for borderline resectable PDAC, both regimens have demonstrated promising results in achieving feasible resection rates. However, mFOLFIRINOX remains the preferred choice for adjuvant chemotherapy. The selection of initial chemotherapy for PDAC depends on the disease stage, patients’ performance status, and tumor molecular alterations. Further research and clinical trials are necessary to optimize treatment approaches for PDAC patients.

Pancreatic Cancer and its Attributable Risk Factors in East Asia, Now and Future

BACKGROUND

The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in East Asia is at a high level, but the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in the region have not been systematically studied.

METHOD

Joinpoint analysis was used to identify average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in mortality. Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze age-period cohort effects across countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project the burden of disease for 2020-2030.

RESULTS

Pancreatic cancer mortality in males in Japan (2012-2019, APC = -0.97) and Korea (2012-2019, APC = -0.91) has shown a decreasing trend since 2012 (P < .05). However, China (2016-2019, APC = 3.21), Mongolia (2015-2.019, APC = 2.37), and North Korea (2012-2019, APC = 0.47) showed a significant increase in pancreatic cancer in both genders (P < .05). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in East Asia remained largely stable between 2010 and 2019. Mortality of pancreatic cancer due to smoking began to decline in areas with high socio-demographic index (SDI), and mortality of pancreatic cancer due to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. The age-standardized mortality for pancreatic cancer in Chinese males is expected to exceed that of Japan and South Korea by 2030, but the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Japan and South Korea remains at extremely high levels.

CONCLUSION

Economically developed countries are beginning to show a decreasing trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease, and developing countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic cancer challenge in 52 Asian countries: age-centric insights and the role of modifiable risk factors (1990-2019)

Background

Pancreatic cancer is renowned for its elevated incidence and mortality rates on a global scale. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is anticipated to increase, particularly in Asia, due to its vast and rapidly aging population.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 were analyzed for pancreatic cancer burden across 52 countries in Asia, including the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for pancreatic cancer, with a focus on risk factors such as high body mass index (BMI), elevated fasting plasma glucose, and smoking. We applied the Estimated Annual Percentage Change, the Age-Period-Cohort model, and decomposition analysis to evaluate incidence trends and effects.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, both incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in Asia significantly increased, with an average annual standardized incidence rate change of 1.73%. Males consistently exhibited higher rates than females, with smoking as a key risk factor. Central Asia reported the highest rates, and South Asia the lowest. The incidence rose with age, peaking in those aged 70~74. The disease burden increased in all age groups, particularly in populations aged 55 and above, representing 84.41% of total cases in 2019, up from 79.01% in 1990. Pancreatic cancer ranked the fifth in incidence among six major gastrointestinal tumors but presented a significant growth rate of mortality and DALY.

Conclusion

With the growing, aging population in Asia, the pancreatic cancer burden is projected to escalate, bringing a significant public health challenge. Hence, comprehensive public health strategies emphasizing early detection, risk modification, and optimized treatment of pancreatic cancer are imperative.

The burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Globally, pancreatic cancer is recognized as one of the most lethal types of cancers. We report the burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex, and socio-demographic index.

METHODS

Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study were used to report the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to pancreatic cancer, as counts and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals.

RESULTS

In 2019, pancreatic cancer had an age-standardized incidence rate of 5.3 and a death rate of 5.5 (per 100 000) in MENA, which have increased by 97.5% and 93.4%, respectively, since 1990. There were 563.6 thousand DALYs attributable to pancreatic cancer in 2019, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 123.0, which has increased by 84.9% since 1990. The highest number of incident cases was found in the 60-64 and 65-69 age groups, among male and female, respectively. In addition, the MENA/global DALY ratios were higher in all age groups for both sexes in 2019, than they were in 1990. There was a positive association between socio-demographic index and the burden of pancreatic cancer. Smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index were responsible for 19.2%, 9.3%, and 9.3% of the attributable DALYs in 2019, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a clear and substantial increase in the burden of pancreatic cancer in the MENA region. Prevention programs should be implemented in the region that target these three risk factors.

Epidemiological Trends of Kidney Cancer Along with Attributable Risk Factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Projections Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Understanding the past and future burden of kidney cancer in China over years provides essential references for optimizing the prevention and management strategies.

Methods

The data on incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of kidney cancer in China, 1990-2019, were collected from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to depict the trends of kidney cancer burden, and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence and mortality in the next decade.

Results

Over the past 30 years, the number of new kidney cancer cases sharply increased from 11.07 thousand to 59.83 thousand, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) tripled from 1.16/100,000 to 3.21/100,000. The mortality and DALYs also presented an increasing pattern. Smoking and high body mass index were mainly risk factors for kidney cancer. We predicted that by 2030, the incident cases and deaths of kidney cancer would increase to 126.8 thousand and 41.8 thousand, respectively.

Conclusion

In the past 30 years, the kidney cancer burden gradually increased in China, and it will continue to rise in the next decade, which reveals more targeted intervention measures are necessary.