The effectiveness of fallowing strategies in disease control in salmon aquaculture assessed with an SIS model

Introduction and temporospatial tracing of piscine orthoreovirus-1 (PRV-1) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) after local fallowing

Piscine orthoreovirus-1 (PRV-1) is a prevalent agent in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and the causative agent of heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI), an important disease in farmed Atlantic salmon. Investigations into the introduction and dissemination routes of PRV-1 in a field setting have been limited. This study aimed to better understand PRV-1 infections and HSMI-associated mortality under field conditions. We tracked introduction and spread of PRV-1 over one production cycle in a geographically isolated region in Norwegian aquaculture. From five sites, a total of 32 virus isolates were sequenced and genogrouped. The results indicated multiple introductions of PRV-1 to the area, but also revealed a high level of genetic homogeneity among the virus variants. The variants differed from that of the previous production cycle at two out of three sites investigated, suggesting that synchronized fallowing can be a useful tool for preventing dissemination of PRV-1 between generations of fish. Exposure to PRV-1 at the freshwater stage was identified as a potential source of introduction. A low level of HSMI-associated mortality was observed at all sites, with the onset of mortality showing some variation across PRV-1 genogroups. However, the study highlighted the complexity of associating viral genogroups with mortality in a field setting. Overall, this study contributes valuable insights into PRV-1 dynamics in a real-world aquaculture setting, offering potential strategies for disease management and prevention.

Influence of Production Strategy on Gross Waste Output and Temporal Pattern of Gilthead Seabream (Sparus Aurata) Farming: Implications for Environmental Management

This study compares the farm management model used in the Mediterranean gilthead seabream (GHSB; Sparus aurata) industry (S1)—stepped entry of juveniles throughout the year with several production cycles and fish ages overlapping in a single farm—with that used in the salmon industry (S2)—the whole is farm filled with fish that are the same age at once with a fallowing period between rearing cycles—in terms of waste production by coupling digestibility coefficients with growth, feeding, and eating behavior models into a mass balance model. We considered the total C, N, and P content in the different waste fractions (particulate and dissolved wastes). The model, which simulated real farming conditions, showed relevant quantitative and qualitative differences between both strategies, with stocked biomass and water temperature as the main drivers, the amount of feed wasted by chewing as the most relevant fraction differentiating both strategies, and the fallowing period as the main distinguishing management feature. We discuss the influence of both farming strategies on some key performance and environmental aspects, such as benthic recovery, the breakdown of the life cycle of pathogens, and adaptability to climate change. Our results suggest that changing the GHSB industry’s production model is necessary for its sustainability.

Challenges and Solutions to Viral Diseases of Finfish in Marine Aquaculture

Aquaculture is the fastest food-producing sector in the world, accounting for one-third of global food production. As is the case with all intensive farming systems, increase in infectious diseases has adversely impacted the growth of marine fish farming worldwide. Viral diseases cause high economic losses in marine aquaculture. We provide an overview of the major challenges limiting the control and prevention of viral diseases in marine fish farming, as well as highlight potential solutions. The major challenges include increase in the number of emerging viral diseases, wild reservoirs, migratory species, anthropogenic activities, limitations in diagnostic tools and expertise, transportation of virus contaminated ballast water, and international trade. The proposed solutions to these problems include developing biosecurity policies at global and national levels, implementation of biosecurity measures, vaccine development, use of antiviral drugs and probiotics to combat viral infections, selective breeding of disease-resistant fish, use of improved diagnostic tools, disease surveillance, as well as promoting the use of good husbandry and management practices. A multifaceted approach combining several control strategies would provide more effective long-lasting solutions to reduction in viral infections in marine aquaculture than using a single disease control approach like vaccination alone.

COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction for Hungary; A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach

Several epidemiological models are being used around the world to project the number of infected individuals and the mortality rates of the COVID-19 outbreak. Advancing accurate prediction models is of utmost importance to take proper actions. Due to the lack of essential data and uncertainty, the epidemiological models have been challenged regarding the delivery of higher accuracy for long-term prediction. As an alternative to the susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR)-based models, this study proposes a hybrid machine learning approach to predict the COVID-19, and we exemplify its potential using data from Hungary. The hybrid machine learning methods of adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multi-layered perceptron-imperialist competitive algorithm (MLP-ICA) are proposed to predict time series of infected individuals and mortality rate. The models predict that by late May, the outbreak and the total morality will drop substantially. The validation is performed for 9 days with promising results, which confirms the model accuracy. It is expected that the model maintains its accuracy as long as no significant interruption occurs. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research.

Identifying 'firebreaks' to fragment dispersal networks of a marine parasite

Marine ecosystems are beset by disease outbreaks, and efficient strategies to control dispersal of pathogens are scarce. We tested whether introducing no-farming areas or 'firebreaks' could disconnect dispersal networks of a parasitic disease affecting the world's largest marine fish farming industry (∼1000 farms). Larval salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) are released from and transported among salmon farms by ocean currents, creating inter-farm networks of louse dispersal. We used a state-of-the-art biophysical model to predict louse movement along the Norwegian coastline and network analysis to identify firebreaks to dispersal. At least one firebreak that fragmented the network into two large unconnected groups of farms was identified for all seasons. During spring, when wild salmon migrate out into the ocean, and louse levels per fish at farms must be minimised, two effective firebreaks were created by removing 13 and 21 farms (1.3% and 2.2% of all farms in the system) at ∼61°N and 67°N, respectively. We have demonstrated that dispersal models coupled with network analysis can identify no-farming zones that fragment dispersal networks. Reduced dispersal pathways should lower infection pressure at farms, slow the evolution of resistance to parasite control measures, and alleviate infection pressure on wild salmon populations.

Parasitic sea louse infestations on wild sea trout: separating the roles of fish farms and temperature

Background

The causal relation between parasitic sea lice on fish farms and sea lice on wild fish is a controversial subject. A specific scientific debate has been whether the statistical association between infestation pressure (IP) from fish farms and the number of parasites observed on wild sea trout emerges purely because of a confounding and direct effect of temperature (T).

Methods

We studied the associations between louse infestation on wild sea trout, fish farm activity and temperature in an area that practices coordinated fallowing in Nordhordland, Norway. The data were sampled between 2009 and 2016. We used negative binomial models and mediation analysis to determine to what degree the effect of T is mediated through the IP from fish farms.

Results

The number of attached lice on sea trout increased with the T when the IP from fish farms was high but not when the IP was low. In addition, nearly all of the effect of rising T was indirect and mediated through the IP. Attached lice remained low when neighbouring farms were in the first year of the production cycle but rose substantially during the second year. In contrast to attached lice, mobile lice were generally seen in higher numbers at lower water temperatures. Temperature had an indirect positive effect on mobile louse counts by increasing the IP which, in turn, raised the sea trout louse counts. Mobile louse counts rose steadily during the year when neighbouring farms were in the first year of the production cycle and stayed high throughout the second year.

Conclusions

The estimates of the IP effect on louse counts along with the clear biennial pattern emerging due to the production cycle of fish farms clearly indicate that fish farms play an important role in the epidemiology of sea lice on wild sea trout. Furthermore, the mediation analysis demonstrates that a large proportion of the effect of T on louse counts is mediated through IP.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3189-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluation of aquaculture management zones as a control measure for salmon lice in Norway

We evaluated the use of coordinated fallowing as a means to control salmon lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis infestation in farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. In discrete management zones, aquaculture operations such as stocking, fallowing, treatments and harvesting are synchronized at all sites in coordinated areas within the zones. The expected benefit of synchronized generations is to reduce the presence of salmon lice larvae after a period of fallowing, as well as to minimize external infestation pressure from surrounding aquaculture sites. A regression analysis was used to evaluate the effectiveness of coordinated fallowing on the progression of external salmon lice infestation pressure and abundance in Atlantic salmon farming sites in 2 areas (zones) in Norway. The overall results show that external infestation pressure was higher inside than outside the management zones, and the external infestation pressure increased with increasing biomass throughout the production cycle. However, within the zones, the external infestation pressure at the beginning of a production cycle was high and in many cases even higher than the general external infestation pressure in the non-coordinated areas. This suggests that external infestation pressure from the neighboring areas has a considerable effect on the fallowed area. Higher numbers of salmon lice were recorded within the zones than outside and, as the production cycle progressed, this phenomenon became more evident. We conclude that the high infestation pressure from salmon lice at the beginning of the grow-out period after fallowing raises severe doubts about the effectiveness of coordinated fallowing practices.

Risk factors for infectious pancreatic necrosis in farmed Chilean Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from 2010 to 2013

Infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is a widespread and economically devastating fish disease caused by infection with a virus referred to as IPN virus (IPNv). In Chile, the disease is endemic and prevalent in both fresh- and salt-water farms affecting cultured salmonids, mainly Atlantic salmon. Here, we present the results of a retrospective cohort study of Atlantic salmon farms stocked between 2010 and 2013, aimed at quantifying the extent to which certain epidemiological factors influence the time interval between stocking and onset of IPN mortality (time to mortality, ttm) in marine farms. Six variables were retained in a final multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. Compared to the 2010 stocking year, ttm was shorter for salmon stocked in years 2012 (HR = 2.1; p = 0.005) and 2013 (HR = 4.3; p = 0.01). The number of salmon farms within a 10-km radius (HR = 1.07; p = 0.002), positive report of IPN in the previous production cycle (HR = 1.95; p = 0.006), three or more smolt batches (HR = 2.27; p < 0.001), and positive report of mortality attributable to BKD (HR = 2.02; p < 0.001) were also associated with low ttm; conversely, ttm was longer for farms that stocked heavier fish (HR = 0.94; p = 0.001). The results presented here were consistent with early studies of IPN epidemiology in Norway and Scotland. Some of the risk factors identified in this study also influenced the risk for other diseases, such as infectious salmon anemia, suggesting that implementation of selected management practices may help to mitigate the burden of important infectious diseases of salmon in Chile.

Production of red tilapia (Oreochromis spp.) in floating cages in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: mortality and health management

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is one of the most productive aquaculture regions in the world, in which the red tilapia (Oreochromis spp.) industry is a small-scale industry that mainly supplies local markets in the delta region. Little is known about the frequency of mortality events and health management in this sector. We describe red tilapia floating cage production systems in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, for the purposes of quantifying mortality and associated production factors, and describing practices that may influence pathogen introduction and spread to and from farms. In July 2014, approximately 50 red tilapia farmers from 4 provinces (201 farmers in total) were randomly selected and interviewed. Median overall perceived mortality (PM) within a production cycle was 35%. Overall PM was found to be affected by province (p < 0.01), age of farmers (p = 0.01), anticipated main reason for PM in the first 2 wk (p = 0.03), most common market for the fish (p = 0.02), and whether farmers recorded stocking information (p = 0.01). Based on the interviews, we describe and discuss processes that potentially affect pathogen introduction and spread on these farms, such as movements of live and dead fish, distances between farms, mechanical transmission, and biosecurity practices such as treating fish before stocking, using disinfectants, and sharing equipment, and harvesters' movements. This study provides fundamental understanding of red tilapia aquaculture management in the Mekong Delta, and describes management factors that could become important in the event of disease outbreaks.

Simulated environmental transport distances of Lepeophtheirus salmonis in Loch Linnhe, Scotland, for informing aquaculture area management structures

In the majority of salmon farming countries, production occurs in zones where practices are coordinated to manage disease agents such as Lepeophtheirus salmonis. To inform the structure of zones in specific systems, models have been developed accounting for parasite biology and system hydrodynamics. These models provide individual system farm relationships, and as such, it may be beneficial to produce more generalized principles for informing structures. Here, we use six different forcing scenarios to provide simulations from a previously described model of the Loch Linnhe system, Scotland, to assess the maximum dispersal distance of lice particles released from 12 sites transported over 19 day. Results indicate that the median distance travelled is 6.1 km from release site with <2.5% transported beyond 15 km, which occurs from particles originating from half of the release sites, with an absolute simulated distance of 36 km observed. This provides information suggesting that the disease management areas developed for infectious salmon anaemia control may also have properties appropriate for salmon lice management in Scottish coastal waters. Additionally, general numerical descriptors of the simulated relative lice abundance reduction with increased distance from release location are proposed.

Using the H-index to assess disease priorities for salmon aquaculture

Atlantic salmon's (Salmo salar) annual aquaculture production exceeds 2M tonnes globally, and for the UK forms the largest single food export. However, aquaculture production is negatively affected by a range of different diseases and parasites. Effort to control pathogens should be focused on those which are most "important" to aquaculture. It is difficult to specify what makes a pathogen important; this is particularly true in the aquatic sector where data capture systems are less developed than for human or terrestrial animal diseases. Mortality levels might be one indicator, but these can cause a range of different problems such as persistent endemic losses, occasional large epidemics or control/treatment costs. Economic and multi-criteria decision methods can incorporate this range of impacts, however these have not been consistently applied to aquaculture and the quantity and quality of data required is large, so their potential for comparing aquatic pathogens is currently limited. A method that has been developed and applied to both human and terrestrial animal diseases is the analysis of published scientific literature using the H-index method. We applied this method to salmon pathogens using Web of Science searches for 23 pathogens. The top 3 H-indices were obtained for: sea lice, furunculosis, and infectious salmon anaemia; post 2000, Amoebic Gill Disease (AGD) replaced furunculosis. The number of publications per year describing bacterial disease declined significantly, while those for viruses and sea lice increased significantly. This reflects effective bacterial control by vaccination, while problems related to viruses and sea lice have increased. H-indices by country reflected different national concerns (e.g. AGD ranked top for Australia). Averaged national H-indices for salmon diseases tend to increase with log of salmon production; countries with H-Indices significantly below the trend line have suffered particularly large disease losses. The H-index method, supported by other literature analyses, is consistent with the nature and history of salmon diseases and so provides a useful quantitative measure for comparing different diseases in the absence of other measures.

Seasonal increase in sea temperature triggers pancreas disease outbreaks in Norwegian salmon farms

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease causing negative impacts on economy of salmon farms and fish welfare. Its transmission route is horizontal, and water transport by ocean currents is an important factor for transmission. In this study, the effect of temperature changes on PD dynamics in the field has been analysed for the first time. To identify the potential time of exposure to the virus causing PD, a hydrodynamic current model was used. A cohort of salmon was assumed to be infected the month it was exposed to virus from other infective cohorts by estimated water contact. The number of months from exposure to outbreak defined the incubation period, which was used in this investigation to explore the relationship between temperature changes and PD dynamics. The time of outbreak was identified by peak in mortality based on monthly records from active sites. Survival analysis demonstrated that cohorts exposed to virus at decreasing sea temperature had a significantly longer incubation period than cohorts infected when the sea temperature was increasing. Hydrodynamic models can provide information on the risk of being exposed to pathogens from neighbouring farms. With the knowledge of temperature-dependent outbreak probability, the farmers can emphasize prophylactic management, avoid stressful operations until the sea temperature is decreasing and consider removal of cohorts at risk, if possible.

A common-garden experiment to quantify evolutionary processes in copepods: the case of emamectin benzoate resistance in the parasitic sea louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis

BACKGROUND

The development of pesticide resistance represents a global challenge to food production. Specifically for the Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry, parasitic sea lice and their developing resistance to delousing chemicals is challenging production. In this study, seventeen full sibling families, established from three strains of Lepeophtheirus salmonis displaying differing backgrounds in emamectin benzoate (EB) tolerance were produced and quantitatively compared under a common-garden experimental design. Lice surviving to the preadult stage were then exposed to EB and finally identified through the application of DNA parentage testing.

RESULTS

With the exception of two families (19 and 29%), survival from the infectious copepod to preadult stage was very similar among families (40-50%). In contrast, very large differences in survival following EB exposure were observed among the families (7.9-74%). Family survival post EB exposure was consistent with the EB tolerance characteristics of the strains from which they were established and no negative effect on infection success were detected in association with increased EB tolerance. Two of the lice families that displayed reduced sensitivity to EB were established from a commercial farm that had previously used this chemical. This demonstrates that resistant alleles were present on this farm even though the farm had not reported treatment failure.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this represents the first study where families of any multi-cellular parasite have been established and compared in performance under communal rearing conditions in a common-garden experiment. The system performed in a predictable manner and permitted, for the first time, elucidation of quantitative traits among sea lice families. While this experiment concentrated on, and provided a unique insight into EB sensitivity among lice families, the experimental design represents a novel methodology to experimentally address both resistance development and other evolutionary questions in parasitic copepods.

A comparison of modelling approaches to assess the transmission of pathogens between Scottish fish farms: the role of hydrodynamics and site biomass

Scotland is the largest Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) producer in the EU with an output of over 150,000 t, contributing over £500 million annually towards the economy. Production continues to increase, predominantly due to the increase in output per farm and reduction in losses due to infectious diseases. Farms are grouped within disease management areas whose boundaries are defined by where the closest pair of farms is separated by more than twice the tidal excursion distance (TE) Tidal excursion is defined as 7.2 km in mainland Scotland, or 3.6 km in the Shetland Islands). The majority of salmon farms are located within relatively sheltered inshore areas where non-tidal advective current speed is minimal. However there is an aspiration for offshore production where it might be possible to increase stocking levels and where current speeds will be greater so TE models could break down. Separation distances whereby farms would avoid infection risk were obtained using an analytical, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model coupled with a hydrodynamic transport expression representing transmission of pathogenic agents between fish farms. The model incorporated transmission, expression and recovery parameters as well as pathogen shedding and decay. The simplified hydrodynamic model incorporated residual advection, tidal advection and turbulent diffusion elements. The obtained separation distances were compared to a computationally intensive, numerical model and were demonstrated to be comparable, although the analytical model underestimated the variation within the transmission distances. Applying characteristics for a robust pathogen, infectious pancreatic necrosis virus type (IPNV-type), and less robust pathogens such as infectious salmon anaemia virus type (ISAV-type) and Aeromonas salmonicida type (AS-type) pathogens, it was possible to obtain separation distances whereby farms avoided infection. Simulation outputs indicated that separation distances should increase to avoid disease as farm size and current speed increase. The more conserved IPNV-type pathogen required separation distances of hundreds of kilometres, AS-type required tens of kilometres, whilst the distances for ISAV-type were within the scale of the current DMAs, that were developed for ISAV control. However, should production be moved to areas of faster moving currents and increased farm production the current disease management area principles might need readdressing.

The potential for targeted surveillance of live fish movements in Scotland

The network structure of the movements of live fish in the Scottish aquaculture industry has recently been demonstrated for 2003. In this paper, we enlarge this analysis to a longer 3-year period from 2002 to 2004, the new data allowing complete coverage of at least one production cycle. The resulting network contains slightly more sites than that for a single year and is denser with more arcs (directed site-to-site connections) present, but otherwise features recognizable in the 1-year network are still recognizable in the 3-year network. Arc-removal algorithms (a proxy for targeted surveillance) were identified that could successfully reduce the portion of the network reachable from a node (a proxy for potential epidemic size) by approximately one-third by removing as few as four arcs. This results from the high centrality of particular nodes and arcs. A strong community structure was identified in the network, corresponding with species farmed, but only weakly geographical, with a high proportion of arcs occurring between management areas and catchments.

Seasonality and heterogeneity of live fish movements in Scottish fish farms

Movement of live animals is a key contributor to disease spread. Farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, rainbow trout Onchorynchus mykiss and brown/sea trout Salmo trutta are initially raised in freshwater (FW) farms; all the salmon and some of the trout are subsequently moved to seawater (SW) farms. Frequently, fish are moved between farms during their FW stage and sometimes during their SW stage. Seasonality and differences in contact patterns across production phases have been shown to influence the course of an epidemic in livestock; however, these parameters have not been included in previous network models studying disease transmission in salmonids. In Scotland, farmers are required to register fish movements onto and off their farms; these records were used in the present study to investigate seasonality and heterogeneity of movements for each production phase separately for farmed salmon, rainbow trout and brown/sea trout. Salmon FW-FW and FW-SW movements showed a higher degree of heterogeneity in number of contacts and different seasonal patterns compared with SW-SW movements. FW-FW movements peaked from May to July and FW-SW movements peaked from March to April and from October to November. Salmon SW-SW movements occurred more consistently over the year and showed fewer connections and number of repeated connections between farms. Therefore, the salmon SW-SW network might be treated as homogeneous regarding the number of connections between farms and without seasonality. However, seasonality and production phase should be included in simulation models concerning FW-FW and FW-SW movements specifically. The number of rainbow trout FW-FW and brown/sea trout FW-FW movements were different from random. However, movements from other production phases were too low to discern a seasonal pattern or differences in contact pattern.

Effects of parasites from salmon farms on productivity of wild salmon

The ecological risks of salmon aquaculture have motivated changes to management and policy designed to protect wild salmon populations and habitats in several countries. In Canada, much attention has focused on outbreaks of parasitic copepods, sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), on farmed and wild salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, British Columbia. Several recent studies have reached contradictory conclusions on whether the spread of lice from salmon farms affects the productivity of sympatric wild salmon populations. We analyzed recently available sea lice data on farms and spawner-recruit data for pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon populations in the Broughton Archipelago and nearby regions where farms are not present. Our results show that sea lice abundance on farms is negatively associated with productivity of both pink and coho salmon in the Broughton Archipelago. These results reconcile the contradictory findings of previous studies and suggest that management and policy measures designed to protect wild salmon from sea lice should yield conservation and fishery benefits.