Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds

One size does not fit all: Exploring the economic and non-economic outcomes of on-farm biosecurity for bovine viral diarrhoea virus in Australian beef production

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is a disease of global importance, affecting the production and welfare of cattle enterprises through poor reproductive performance and calf mortality. In Australia, the prevention of BVDV introduction and spread is primarily achieved with on-farm biosecurity; however, the use of these practices can vary amongst producers. Economic utility is commonly identified as a contributor to the uptake of on-farm biosecurity, but other factors such as animal welfare, producer priorities and introduction risk also influence farmer behaviour. This study uses an individual-based, stochastic simulation model to examine the economic and non-economic value of 23 on-farm biosecurity combinations for the control of BVDV in Australian beef farms without (N0) and with (N1) a neighbouring population of persistently infected (PI) cattle. Combinations of quarantine of purchased bulls (Q), hygiene during herd health events (H), double-fencing adjacent boundaries with neighbouring farms (F) and vaccination against BVDV (V) were tested. This study is the first to simulate the use of strategic PI exposure (PI) as an alternative to V, a contentious practice performed by some Australian beef farmers. Introduction of BVDV into a naïve 300-breeder self-replacing beef herd was achieved through the purchase of PI bulls (N0 and N1 herds) and over-the-fence contact with neighbouring PI animals (N1 herds only). The predicted median cumulative loss due to BVDV over a 15-year period was AUD$172/breeder and AUD$453/breeder for an N0 and N1 herd, respectively. Early establishment of BVDV in the simulation period was found to be the primary factor contributing to economic loss. Consequently, the Q and QF combinations resulted in the highest predicted average annual cost-benefit for BVDV-free N0 and N1 herds. In the five years following establishment of BVDV, use of QP (N0 herds) and V (N1 herds) combinations were most cost-effective. Combinations that involved V and P (in conjunction with F in N1 herds) also resulted in the lowest number of PI animals sold to other farms or feedlots over the simulation period. However, in both N0 and N1 herds, P resulted in the highest number of infected cattle, which has implications for poor animal welfare and increased antimicrobial use on Australian beef farms. The outcomes reported in this study can guide decisions to prevent BVDV introduction and spread on extensive beef farms using on-farm biosecurity, based on the risk of BVDV exposure and the priorities of the individual farmer.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, resulting in approximately sixty thousand annual hospitalizations of< 5-year-olds in the United States alone and three million annual hospitalizations globally. The development of over 40 vaccines and immunoprophylactic interventions targeting RSV has the potential to significantly reduce the disease burden from RSV infection in the near future. In the context of RSV, a highly contagious pathogen, dynamic transmission models (DTMs) are valuable tools in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of different interventions. This review, the first of its kind for RSV DTMs, provides a valuable foundation for future modelling efforts and highlights important gaps in our understanding of RSV epidemics. Specifically, we have searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and PubMed to identify all published manuscripts reporting the development of DTMs focused on the population transmission of RSV. We reviewed the resulting studies and summarized the structure, parameterization, and results of the models developed therein. We anticipate that future RSV DTMs, combined with cost-effectiveness evaluations, will play a significant role in shaping decision making in the development and implementation of intervention programs.

To Vaccinate or Not: Impact of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea in French Cow-Calf Herds

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) remains an issue despite control programs implemented worldwide. Virus introduction can occur through contacts with neighbouring herds. Vaccination can locally protect exposed herds. However, virus spread depends on herd characteristics, which may impair vaccination efficiency. Using a within-herd epidemiological model, we compared three French cow-calf farming systems named by their main breed: Charolaise, Limousine, and Blonde d’Aquitaine. We assessed vaccination strategies of breeding females assuming two possible protections: against infection or against vertical transmission. Four commercial vaccines were considered: Bovilis^®, Bovela^®, Rispoval^®, and Mucosiffa^®. We tested various virus introduction frequency in a naïve herd. We calculated BVD economic impact and vaccination reward. In Charolaise, BVD economic impact was 113€ per cow over 5 years after virus introduction. Irrespective of the vaccine and for a high enough risk of introduction, the yearly expected reward was 0.80€ per invested euro per cow. Vaccination should not be stopped before herd exposure has been decreased. In contrast, the reward was almost nil in Blonde d’Aquitaine and Limousine. This highlights the importance of accounting for herd specificities to assess BVD impact and vaccination efficiency. To guide farmers’ vaccination decisions against BVD, we transformed this model into a French decision support tool.

Impact of risk-based partial vaccination on clinical incidence and seroprevalence of foot and mouth disease in Lao PDR

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and it causes economic loss to smallholder husbandry systems. An intervention programme based on a risk-based partial vaccination strategy was implemented in three provinces of Lao PDR (Champasak, Savannakhet and Xiangkhouang) to immunise domestic cattle and buffalo during 2016-2020. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 2016/17 and 2020 to evaluate the impact of the vaccination programme on the prevalence of FMD virus exposure and clinical incidence of the disease. A total of 212 villages were visited during the two surveys, collecting 1609 household-level questionnaire results and 5931 blood samples of domestic cattle and buffalo. Blood samples were tested for the presence of antibodies to the non-structural proteins of FMD virus, and seroprevalence of 42.5 and 47.5% in 2016/17 and 2020, respectively were found. Multivariable regression analysis indicated that the efficacy of the FMD vaccination programme for reducing FMD virus circulation varied by province. In general, the incidence of clinical FMD increased toward the end of the 5-year intervention period, coinciding with a reduction of vaccine coverage in the last 2 years of the period. The findings suggest that the risk-based vaccination strategy achieved a marginally protective effect against the circulation of FMD virus with the possible limiting factors being operational constraints of public veterinary services, lack of farmers' compliance and unsustainable funding. We conclude that consistent resource availability and higher vaccination coverage is required to successfully control FMD with a risk-based vaccination strategy in Lao PDR.

The Use of Hydromulching as an Alternative to Plastic Films in an Artichoke (Cynara cardunculus cv. Symphony) Crop: A Study of the Economic Viability

The use of mulching in agriculture suppresses the weeds around crop plants, enhances the nutrients status of soil, controls the soil structure and temperature, and reduces soil water evaporation. Excessive use of low-density polyethylene mulches is contributing to the accumulation of high amounts of plastic wastes, an environmental problem for agricultural ecosystems. Fragments of plastic from such wastes can be found in soils, in water resources, and in organisms, including humans. The objective of this work was to study the economic viability of the use of different hydromulches in an artichoke crop. Three blends were prepared by mixing paper pulp (recycled from used paper) and cardboard (from paper mills) with different additives: wheat straw (WS), rice hulls (RH), and substrate used for mushroom cultivation (MS). These were compared with low-density polyethylene (Pe), a treatment without mulching on bare soil where hand weeding was performed (HW), and a treatment without mulching on bare soil where herbicide was applied (H). The results indicate that the use of hydromulch in an artichoke crop represents a good alternative for reducing plastic waste in agriculture. The net profits of the hydromulch treatments (MS, WS, RH) were higher than for HW and H, and slightly lower than for Pe. The most profitable treatment was Pe (€0.69 m−3), followed by RH (€0.59 m−3), WS (€0.58 m−3), MS (€0.47 m−3), HW (€0.36 m−3), and H (€0.32 m−3). A sensitivity analysis showed a probability of negative results of 0.04 in Pe, 0.13 in SM, 0.08 in WS, and 0.07 in RH, so the probability that the grower will make a profit is greater than 0.9 with the use of mulch (except mushroom substrate) or polyethylene.

The Financial Valuation Risk in Pepper Production: The Use of Decoupled Net Present Value

Greenhouse peppers are one of the most important crops globally. However, as in any production activity, especially agricultural, they are subject to important risk factors such as price fluctuations, pests, or the use of bad quality water. This article aims to evaluate the viability of these types of crops by using discounted cash flows. Risk evaluation has been carried out through the analysis of pepper plantations for 2016 and 2017. The traditional application of this tool has significant limitations, such as the discount rate to be used or the estimation of future cash flows. However, by using discount functions that decrease over time in combination with decoupled net present value, these limitations are expected to improve. The use of decoupled net present value has permitted an increase in the accuracy and quantification of risks, isolating the main risks such as price drops (EUR 3720 ha−1 year−1) and structural risks (EUR 1622 € ha−1 year−1). The use of decreasing discount functions has permitted a more realistic investment estimation. Finally, the sensitivity analysis shows that decoupled net present value (DNPV) is little affected by changes in interest rates in contrast to traditional net present value (NPV).

Modelling the economics of bovine viral diarrhoea virus control in pastoral dairy and beef cattle herds

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is a prevalent pathogen in the New Zealand cattle industries, yet few studies to date have evaluated the economics of BVDV in pastoral dairy and beef herds to help inform management decisions. To address this knowledge gap, we developed stochastic individual-based simulation models to represent the transmission dynamics of BVDV in typical spring-calving dairy and beef farms in New Zealand. The models conservatively estimated the direct losses due to a BVDV outbreak at NZ$ 22.22 and NZ$ 41.19 per mixed-age cow per year for a naïve dairy and beef farm, respectively, over a 5-year period. The greatest economic impacts for the dairy farm occurred when persistently infected replacement heifers joined the lactating cow group and caused transient infection of cows to drop in milk production, whereas the greatest impacts for the beef farm was through the loss of fattening stock for sale due to lowered pregnancy rates. Various combinations of diagnostic testing, vaccination, and biosecurity measures were then explored to evaluate the cost-efficiency of different strategies for controlling BVDV at the farm-level. Providing farmers with the estimates of economic impacts of BVDV in their herds may further encourage the uptake of control measures, but close collaboration with a veterinarian to determine the optimal strategy for their unique farm circumstances is still required.

Ranking disease control strategies with stochastic outcomes

This paper explains how the methodologies of first and second order stochastic dominance, and expected utility using specific risk preferences, can be applied to epidemiology when choosing among control strategies that have stochastic outcomes. We provide a step-by-step guide on how epidemiologists can rank a number of control strategies based on their distribution of estimated benefits. We also explain how the expected utility model and decision maker's risk preferences can be used to select between outcomes when none stochastically dominates. To illustrate these techniques, we show the ranking of various control strategies for a dairy herd endemically infected with Mycobacterium avium subs. paratuberculosis (MAP) and mastitis, and explain how decision maker's risk preferences affect the ranking.

Estimation of the within-herd transmission rates of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in extensively grazed beef cattle herds

Many research groups have developed mathematical models to simulate the dynamics of BVDV infections in cattle herds. However, most models use estimates for within-herd BVDV transmission rates that are either based on expert opinion or adapted from other dairy herd simulation models presented in the literature. There is currently little information on the transmission rates for BVDV in extensively grazed beef herds partly due to the logistical challenges in obtaining longitudinal data of individual animal’s seroconversion, and it may not be appropriate to apply the same transmission rates from intensive dairy herds given the significant differences in herd demographics and management. To address this knowledge gap, we measured BVDV antibody levels in 15 replacement heifers in each of 75 New Zealand beef breeding farms after their first calving and again at pregnancy scanning or weaning to check for seroconversion. Among these, data from 9 farms were used to infer the within-herd BVDV transmission rate with an approximate Bayesian computation method. The most probable within-herd BVDV transmission rate was estimated as 0.11 per persistently infected (PI) animal per day with a 95% highest posterior density interval between 0.03 and 0.34. This suggests that BVDV transmission in extensively grazed beef herds is generally slower than in dairy herds where the transmission rate has been estimated at 0.50 per PI animal per day and therefore may not be sufficient to ensure that all susceptible breeding females gain adequate immunity to the virus before the risk period of early pregnancy for generating new PI calves.

A meta-analysis of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) prevalences in the global cattle population

A random effect meta-analysis was performed to estimate the worldwide pooled bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) prevalences of persistently infected (PI), viraemic (VI) and antibody-positive (AB) animals and herds. The meta-analysis covered 325 studies in 73 countries that determined the presence or absence of BVDV infections in cattle from 1961 to 2016. In total, 6.5 million animals and 310,548 herds were tested for BVDV infections in the global cattle population. The worldwide pooled PI prevalences at animal level ranged from low (≤0.8% Europe, North America, Australia), medium (>0.8% to 1.6% East Asia) to high (>1.6% West Asia). The PI and AB prevalences in Europe decreased over time, while BVDV prevalence increased in North America. The highest mean pooled PI prevalences at animal level were identified in countries that had failed to implement any BVDV control and/or eradication programmes (including vaccination). Our analysis emphasizes the need for more standardised epidemiological studies to support decision-makers implementing animal health policies for non-globally-regulated animal diseases.

Engaging veterinarians and farmers in eradicating bovine viral diarrhoea: a systematic review of economic impact

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) is a significant drain on efficient and successful cattle production in both dairy and beef systems around the world. Several countries have achieved eradication of this disease, but always through the motivation of stakeholders who accept the benefits of eradication. These include increased cattle welfare and fitness of cattle to withstand other diseases, and decreased costs of production, the latter resulting from both decreased costs spent on managing the disease and decreased losses. This paper provides a systematic review of 31 papers, published between 1991 and 2015, that address the economic impact of BVD. Each paper takes a different approach, in either beef or dairy production or both. However with the breadth of work collated, a stakeholder engaged in BVD eradication should find an economic figure of most relevance to them. The reported economic impact ranges from £0 to £552 per cow per year (£2370 including outliers). This range represents endemic or subclinical disease situations seen in herds with stable BVD virus infection, and epidemic or severe acute situations, most often seen in naïve herds. The outcome of infection is therefore dependent on the immune status of the animal and severity of the strain. The variations in figures for the economic impact of BVD relate to these immune and pathogenicity factors, along with the variety of impacts monitored.

A systematic review of financial and economic assessments of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) prevention and mitigation activities worldwide

Infection with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) results in major economic losses either directly through decreased productive performance in cattle herds or indirectly, such as through expenses for control programs. The aim of this systematic review was to review financial and/or economic assessment studies of prevention and/or mitigation activities of BVDV at national, regional and farm level worldwide. Once all predefined criteria had been met, 35 articles were included for this systematic review. Studies were analyzed with particular focus on the type of financially and/or economically-assessed prevention and/or mitigation activities. Due to the wide range of possible prevention and/or mitigation activities, these activities were grouped into five categories: i) control and/or eradication programs, ii) monitoring or surveillance, iii) prevention, iv) vaccination and v) individual culling, control and testing strategies. Additionally, the studies were analyzed according to economically-related variables such as efficiency, costs or benefits of prevention and/or mitigation activities, the applied financial and/or economic and statistical methods, the payers of prevention and/or mitigation activities, the assessed production systems, and the countries for which such evaluations are available. Financial and/or economic assessments performed in Europe were dominated by those from the United Kingdom, which assessed mostly vaccination strategies, and Norway which primarily carried out assessments in the area of control and eradication programs; whereas among non-European countries the United States carried out the majority of financial and/or economic assessments in the area of individual culling, control and testing. More than half of all studies provided an efficiency calculation of prevention and/or mitigation activities and demonstrated whether the inherent costs of implemented activities were or were not justified. The dairy sector was three times more likely to be assessed by the countries than beef production systems. In addition, the dairy sector was approximately eight times more likely to be assessed economically with respect to prevention and/or mitigation activities than calf and youngstock production systems. Furthermore, the private sector was identified as the primary payer of prevention and/or mitigation activities. This systematic review demonstrated a lack of studies relating to efficiency calculations, in particular at national and regional level, and the specific production systems. Thus, we confirmed the need for more well-designed studies in animal health economics in order to demonstrate that the implementation and inherent costs of BVDV prevention and/or mitigation activities are justified.

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.

Modelling the spread of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in a beef cattle herd and its impact on herd productivity

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a common pathogen of cattle herds that causes economic losses due to reproductive disorders in breeding cattle and increased morbidity and mortality amongst infected calves. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of BVDV spread on the productivity of a beef cow-calf herd using a stochastic model in discrete time that accounted for (1) the difference in transmission rates when animals are housed indoors versus grazing on pasture, (2) the external risk of disease introductions through fenceline contact with neighboring herds and the purchase of infected cattle, and (3) the risk of individual pregnant cattle generating persistently infected (PI) calves based on their stage in gestation. The model predicted the highest losses from BVDV during the first 3 years after disease was introduced into a naive herd. During the endemic phase, the impact of BVDV on the yearly herd productivity was much lower due to herd immunity. However, cumulative losses over 10 years in an endemic situation greatly surpassed the losses that occurred during the acute phase. A sensitivity analysis of key model parameters revealed that herd size, the duration of breeding, grazing, and selling periods, renewal rate of breeding females, and the level of numerical productivity expected by the farmer had a significant influence on the predicted losses. This model provides a valuable framework for evaluating the impact of BVDV and the efficacy of different control strategies in beef cow-calf herds.