Temporal and geographic distribution of weather conditions favorable to airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the coterminous United States

Using participatory epidemiology to investigate the causes of cattle abortion in Southwest Ethiopia

Cattle abortion, stemming from both infectious and non-infectious causes, lead to notable financial setbacks in the cattle industry. Between October 2020 and October 2021, an epidemiological investigation took place in Southwest Ethiopia. The objective was to determine the magnitude and seasonal occurrence of the presumed causes of cattle abortion. Information for this research was collected through 30 group discussions, each involving 8-12 participants. Various participatory epidemiological tools, including semi-structured interviews, pairwise ranking, matrix scoring, proportional piling, and seasonal calendars, were employed in the designated areas. By employing the pairwise ranking approach, the relative significance of presumed causes contributing to cattle abortion was established. The identified major presumed causes of cattle abortion, listed in increasing order of importance, were blackleg, foot-and-mouth disease, pasteurellosis, lumpy skin disease, listeriosis, trypanosomosis, Q fever, leptospirosis, and brucellosis. Participants identified brucellosis (6.1%), leptospirosis (6.0%), and Q-fever (5.7%) as the primary presumed causes of abortion, determined through proportional piling. Matrix scoring analysis indicated a robust agreement (W = 0.464-0.989; P < 0.001) among different informant groups regarding both the presumed causes of abortion and the associated clinical signs. Brucellosis and Q-fever were perceived to be more prevalent during the dry season, while leptospirosis, listeriosis, and lumpy skin disease were associated with the wet, hot, and rainy seasons. However, Pasteurellosis, blackleg, and physical/mechanical factors were deemed to be consistently encountered causes of abortion throughout the year. The patterns of seasonal occurrence of suspected abortion causes were widely acknowledged across informant groups (W = 0.977-0.863; P < 0.001). Local practices involving herbal remedies and traditional methods were employed by participants to manage cattle abortion. Moreover, the results underscore the necessity for additional laboratory research to pinpoint the exact causes of abortion in the study areas.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of foot and mouth disease incidence: an ecological, cross-sectional study across Iran using spatial modeling

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious animal disease caused by a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus, with significant economic costs and uneven distribution across Asia, Africa, and South America. While spatial analysis and modeling of FMD are still in their early stages, this research aimed to identify socio-environmental determinants of FMD incidence in Iran at the provincial level by studying 135 outbreaks reported between March 21, 2017, and March 21, 2018. We obtained 46 potential socio-environmental determinants and selected four variables, including percentage of population, precipitation in January, percentage of sheep, and percentage of goats, to be used in spatial regression models to estimate variation in spatial heterogeneity. In our analysis, we employed global models, namely ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial error model (SEM), and spatial lag model (SLM), as well as local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The MGWR model yielded the highest adjusted [Formula: see text] of 90%, outperforming the other local and global models. Using local models to map the effects of environmental determinants (such as the percentage of sheep and precipitation) on the spatial variability of FMD incidence provides decision-makers with helpful information for targeted interventions. Our findings advocate for multiscale and multidisciplinary policies to reduce FMD incidence.

Decision tree risk analysis for FMD outbreak prevention in Egyptian feedlots

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious and economically influential viral diseases on animal health and productivity. Introduction of newly purchased animals to beef farms constitutes a greater risk for the FMD outbreaks in endemic countries. Physical examination of newly purchased animals in live animal markets and/or at the receiving farm, and the timing of preventative FMD vaccination may reduce the risk of FMD outbreaks under endemic conditions. Small (< 50 animals) and medium (50-500 animals) sized beef farms in Egypt constitute more than 60% of the country's beef industry where protocols for receiving newly purchased animals vary widely between farms. The current risk analysis aimed to build a decision tree model to reduce FMD outbreaks associated with introduction of replacement cattle on Egypt's medium sized beef farms. Management practices explored were the use of physical examinations and FMD vaccination and their timing for replacements with the goal of reducing losses due to FMD outbreaks. A producer survey revealed that more than 50% of the study herds relied on live animal markets as a source for replacements and reported more FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.09), FMD herd morbidity > 50% (p-value=0.05), and weight loss > 15 kg/animal in FMD clinical cases (P-value=0.01) in comparison to herds that received replacements from other farms, imported, or purchased from small stakeholders. More than 70% of the surveyed farms received replacements ≤ 1year old and reported significantly higher FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.02) in comparison to farms that received older animals. More than 80% of the surveyed farms performed physical examination of newly purchased animals before arrival at their premises. Of the surveyed farms, 73% reported FMD outbreaks with 67% of the outbreaks being reported during the Fall and Winter seasons. The decision tree identified physical examination of newly purchased animals prior to arrival and mixing with a premises beef herd followed by vaccination against FMD upon arrival as the intervention resulting in the lowest probability of FMD outbreak (8.9%). In contrast, herds that did not perform physical examination and delay the FMD vaccination for two or more weeks had the highest probability of FMD outbreaks (33.5%).

Foot-and-mouth disease status in India during the second decade of the twenty-first century (2011-2020)

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a major disease of livestock in India and causes huge economic losses. The formal FMD control program started in 2003–04 in selected districts and was gradually expanded. The present study provides a descriptive review of the FMD outbreaks, prevalent serotypes, and genetic and antigenic features of the FMD virus (FMDV) that circulated in the country between 2011 and 2020. FMD outbreaks were regularly reported in cloven-hoofed domestic livestock and wildlife, with three serotypes including O, A, and Asia1. During the study period, a total of 2226 FMD outbreaks were documented and serotypes confirmed. FMDV serotype O dominated the outbreak scenario, accounting for about 92% of all outbreaks, followed by Asia1 (5% of all outbreaks) and A (3% of all outbreaks). Two major epidemics of FMD on an unprecedented scale during the years 2013 and 2018 by serotype O were recorded. The spatial distribution of FMD was characterized by a larger number of outbreaks in the southern region of the country. In an annual-scale analysis, 2020 was the year with the lowest outbreaks, and 2013 was the year with the highest. The month-scale analysis showed that outbreaks were reported throughout the year, with the highest numbers between October and March. The emergence of three major lineages (O/ME-SA/Ind2001d, O/ME-SA/Ind2001e, and O/ME-SA/Ind2018) of serotype O was observed during the period. In the cases of serotype A and Asia1, the appearance of at least one novel lineage/genetic group, including A/G-18/non-deletion/2019 and Asia1/Group-IX, was documented. While serotype A showed the advent of antigenic variants, serotypes O and Asia1 did not show any antigenic diversity. It was noticed during the course of an outbreak that animal movement contributes significantly to disease transmission. Except for 2018, when numerous FMD outbreaks were recorded, the number of annual outbreaks reported after 2016 has been lower than in the first half of the decade, probably due to mass vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic-linked movement restrictions. Even during outbreaks, disease symptoms in ruminant populations, including cattle, were found to be less severe. Regular six-monthly immunization certainly has a positive impact on the reduction of disease burden and should be followed without fail and delay, along with intensive disease surveillance.

FMD virus spillover from domestic livestock caused outbreak in captive wild ungulates: First report from Pakistan

The potential spillover of foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus at the wildlife-livestock interface is mainly responsible for the outbreaks in captive wild ungulates. The current study was planned to investigate an FMD outbreak in the wild ungulate species in the Jallo Wildlife Park and breeding facility, Lahore, Pakistan from Mar 2021- Jun 2021. The disease was confirmed based on ELISA through the detection of antibodies against the non-structural protein of FMD virus and typical clinical signs of oral and feet lesions, and even partial or complete hoof shedding in severe cases. To investigate the possible cause of FMD spillover and its pattern, a series of interviews were conducted with wildlife practitioners, animal handlers, and the local veterinarians in villages adjacent to the park. The data revealed neither vaccination nor any FMD outbreak in the last 10 years. The epidemic curve and time-series analysis showed a mixed outbreak characterized by the introduction of disease and then propagative spread from infected to susceptible animals. After the first reports of clinical signs in Blackbuck, Urial and Mouflon sheep were infected while in the end, the cases were reported from the enclosures of Sambar deer and Spotted deer. The morbidity rate among all the wild ungulate species was 92% and the mean mortality rate was 27%. The study concluded that possible sources for primary disease incidence might be animal handlers having FMD infected animals in their houses and transport vehicles coming from adjacent disease-affected villages. For the disease spread between enclosures, another possibility of wind-borne FMD virus spread could also be considered. This is the first report regarding the FMD outbreak and its spillover pattern in captive wild ungulates in Pakistan. These findings will be helpful in understanding the importance of wildlife livestock interface in FMD transmission and to design effective strategies to control the disease.

Airborne Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus: A Review of Past and Present Perspectives

The primary transmission route for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, is by direct contact with infected animals. Yet indirect methods of transmission, such as via the airborne route, have been shown to play an important role in the spread of the disease. Airborne transmission of FMD is referred to as a low probability- high consequence event as a specific set of factors need to coincide to facilitate airborne spread. When conditions are favourable, airborne virus may spread rapidly and cause disease beyond the imposed quarantine zones, thus complicating control measures. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) within aerosols; how aerosols are generated, viral load, how far aerosols could travel and survive under different conditions. Various studies have investigated emissions from infected animals under laboratory conditions, while others have incorporated experimental data in mathematical models to predict and trace outbreaks of FMD. However, much of the existing literature focussing on FMDV in aerosols describe work which was undertaken over 40 years ago. The aim of this review is to revisit existing knowledge and investigate how modern instrumentation and modelling approaches can improve our understanding of airborne transmission of FMD.

Cows as canaries: The effects of ambient air pollution exposure on milk production and somatic cell count in dairy cows

Exposure to air pollution, including criteria pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃), has been associated with morbidity and mortality in mammals. As a genetically homogenous population that is closely monitored for health, dairy cattle present a unique opportunity to assess the association between changes in air pollution and mammalian health. Milk yield decreases in the summer if temperature and humidity, measured by the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). As O₃ levels increase with warmer temperatures, and summer PM_2.5 may increase with wildfire smoke, dairy cows may serve as a useful sentinel species to evaluate subacute markers of inflammation and metabolic output and ambient pollution. Over two years, we assessed summertime O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations from local US EPA air quality monitors into an auto-regressive mixed model of the association between THI and daily milk production data and bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC). In unadjusted models, a 10 unit increase THI was associated with 28,700 cells/mL (95% CI: 17,700, 39,690) increase in SCC. After controlling for ambient air pollutants, THI was associated with a 14,500 SCC increase (95% CI: 3,400, 25,680), a 48% decrease in effect compared to the crude model. Further, in fully adjusted models, PM_2.5 was associated with a 105,500 cells/mL (95% CI: 90,030, 121,050) increase in SCC. Similar results were found for milk production. Results were amplified when high PM_2.5 days (95th percentile of observed values) associated with wildfire smoke were removed from the analyses. Our results support the hypothesis that PM_2.5 confounds the relationships between THI and milk yield and somatic cell count. The results of this study can be used to inform strategies for intervention to mitigate these impacts at the dairy level and potentially contribute to a model where production animals can act as air quality sentinels.

Estimation of foot-and-mouth disease windborne transmission risk from USA beef feedlots

Windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) requires specific epidemiological and meteorological conditions, thus modeling the risk of windborne spread involves integrating epidemiological and meteorological models. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential risk of windborne spread of FMD from an infected US feedlot using an integrated modeling approach, and to identify factors that determine this risk. To address this objective, we integrated a within-herd epidemiological model and an advanced atmospheric dispersion model, and calculated infection risk dependent on exposed herd size. A previously developed epidemiological model was used to simulate the spread of FMD through a typical U.S. feedlot, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model, which has been validated for FMD modeling, was used to model virus dispersion. Infection risk for exposed herds was calculated as a binomial probability accounting for dose and exposed herd size. We modeled risk of windborne spread from a typical 4000 head feedlot in the U.S. state of Iowa (IA), and a typical 48,000 head feedlot in the U.S. state of Kansas (KS) during winter and summer seasons. The risk of windborne spread of FMD varied based on weather/season conditions, estimated average viral shedding rate per head, size of infected herd, and size of exposed herd. In the baseline Kansas scenario (KS/10³/W), the median of the maximum daily risk of infecting a 1000-head exposed herd ranged from 58.16 % at 1 km to 0.78 % at 10 km (Table 4). In the baseline Iowa scenario (IA/10³/W), the median of the maximum daily risk of infecting a 1000-head exposed herd ranged from 21.78 % at 1 km to 0.05 % at 10 km (Table 4). The minimum control area recommended by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in an FMD outbreak is 10 km from the infected premise. Our results indicate that significant risk of windborne spread may extend beyond 10 km in certain situations. This is particularly a concern in areas where there are large feedlots in relatively close proximity, such as in southwestern Kansas. Our model may be useful as a research tool in the absence of an outbreak and may help direct surveillance and response efforts in the event of an outbreak.

Multi-Scale Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne disease transmission is central to many scientific disciplines including agriculture, veterinary biosafety, medicine, and public health. Legal and regulatory standards are in place to prevent agricultural, nosocomial, and community airborne disease transmission. However, the overall importance of the airborne pathway is underappreciated, e.g.,, US National Library of Medicine's Medical Subjects Headings (MESH) thesaurus lacks an airborne disease transmission indexing term. This has practical consequences as airborne precautions to control epidemic disease spread may not be taken when airborne transmission is important, but unrecognized. Publishing clearer practical methodological guidelines for surveillance studies and disease outbreak evaluations could help address this situation.To inform future work, this paper highlights selected, well-established airborne transmission events - largely cases replicated in multiple, independently conducted scientific studies. Methodologies include field experiments, modeling, epidemiology studies, disease outbreak investigations and mitigation studies. Collectively, this literature demonstrates that airborne viruses, bacteria, and fungal pathogens have the capability to cause disease in plants, animals, and humans over multiple distances - from near range (< 5 m) to continental (> 500 km) in scale. The plausibility and implications of undetected airborne disease transmission are discussed, including the notable underreporting of disease burden for several airborne transmitted diseases.

Differential Cardiopulmonary Health Impacts of Local and Long-Range Transport of Wildfire Smoke

We estimated cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality associated with wildfire smoke (WFS) fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in the Front Range of Colorado from 2010 to 2015. To estimate WFS PM_2.5, we developed a daily kriged PM_2.5 surface at a 15  × 15 km resolution based on the Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System monitors for the western United States; we subtracted out local seasonal-average PM_2.5 of nonsmoky days, identified using satellite-based smoke plume estimates, from the local daily estimated PM_2.5 if smoke was identified by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hazard Mapping System. We implemented time-stratified case-crossover analyses to estimate the effect of a 10 µg/m³ increase in WFS PM_2.5 with cardiopulmonary hospitalizations and deaths using single and distributed lag models for lags 0-5 and distinct annual impacts based on local and long-range smoke during 2012, and long-range transport of smoke in 2015. A 10 µg/m³ increase in WFS was associated with all respiratory, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations for lag day 3 and hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease at lag days 2 and 3. Cardiac arrest deaths were associated with WFS PM_2.5 at lag day 0. For 2012 local wildfires, asthma hospitalizations had an inverse association with WFS PM_2.5 (OR: 0.716, 95% CI: 0.517-0.993), but a positive association with WFS PM_2.5 during the 2015 long-range transport event (OR: 1.455, 95% CI: 1.093-1.939). Cardiovascular mortality was associated with the 2012 long-range transport event (OR: 1.478, 95% CI: 1.124-1.944).

Spatial distribution and risk areas of foot and mouth disease in mainland China

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infectious disease in animal, which affects regional economies and food security of many countries. A total of 109 FMD outbreaks in China (from 2010 to 2019) were assessed. To investigate whether the FMD outbreaks were significantly aggregated in China, spatio-temporal cluster analysis was performed. A MaxEnt model was established to identify high risk areas for FMD in China and to identify relevant risk factors. As a result, both the FMD serotype A and O had one cluster each. Roads density, isothermality, UV-B seasonality and railways density were identified as important factors that affect the occurrence of FMD serotype A. The minimum temperature of the coldest month contributed most to FMD serotype O outbreak, followed by railways density and markets distribution. This study may provide useful information for decision makers for the tailoring of a risk-based surveillance of FMD in China.

The source and transport of bioaerosols in the air: A review

Recent pandemic outbreak of the corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised widespread concerns about the importance of the bioaerosols. They are atmospheric aerosol particles of biological origins, mainly including bacteria, fungi, viruses, pollen, and cell debris. Bioaerosols can exert a substantial impact on ecosystems, climate change, air quality, and public health. Here, we review several relevant topics on bioaerosols, including sampling and detection techniques, characterization, effects on health and air quality, and control methods. However, very few studies have focused on the source apportionment and transport of bioaerosols. The knowledge of the sources and transport pathways of bioaerosols is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the role microorganisms play in the atmosphere and control the spread of epidemic diseases associated with them. Therefore, this review comprehensively summarizes the up to date progress on the source characteristics, source identification, and diffusion and transport process of bioaerosols. We intercompare three types of diffusion and transport models, with a special emphasis on a widely used mathematical model. This review also highlights the main factors affecting the source emission and transport process, such as biogeographic regions, land-use types, and environmental factors. Finally, this review outlines future perspectives on bioaerosols.

A Meta-Population Model of Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission, Clinical Manifestation, and Detection Within U.S. Beef Feedlots

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not been reported in the U.S. since 1929. Recent outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries raise concerns about potential FMD introductions in the U.S. Mathematical modeling is the only tool for simulating infectious disease outbreaks in non-endemic territories. In the majority of prior studies, FMD virus (FMDv) transmission on-farm was modeled assuming homogenous animal mixing. This assumption is implausible for U.S. beef feedlots which are divided into multiple home-pens without contact between home-pens except fence line with contiguous home-pens and limited mixing in hospital pens. To project FMDv transmission and clinical manifestation in a feedlot, we developed a meta-population stochastic model reflecting the contact structure. Within a home-pen, the dynamics were represented assuming homogenous animal mixing by a modified SLIR (susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered) model with four additional compartments tracing cattle with subclinical or clinical FMD and infectious status. Virus transmission among home-pens occurred via cattle mixing in hospital-pen(s), cowboy pen rider movements between home-pens, airborne, and for contiguous home-pens fence-line and via shared water-troughs. We modeled feedlots with a one-time capacity of 4,000 (small), 12,000 (medium), and 24,000 (large) cattle. Common cattle demographics, feedlot layout, endemic infectious and non-infectious disease occurrence, and production management were reflected. Projected FMD-outbreak duration on a feedlot ranged from 49 to 82 days. Outbreak peak day (with maximum number of FMD clinical cattle) ranged from 24 (small) to 49 (large feedlot). Detection day was 4-12 post-FMD-introduction with projected 28, 9, or 4% of cattle already infected in a small, medium, or large feedlot, respectively. Depletion of susceptible cattle in a feedlot occurred by day 23-51 post-FMD-introduction. Parameter-value sensitivity analyses were performed for model outputs. Detection occurred sooner if there was a higher initial proportion of latent animals in the index home-pen. Shorter outbreaks were associated with a shorter latent period and higher bovine respiratory disease morbidity (impacting the in-hospital-pen cattle mixing occurrence). This first model of potential FMD dynamics on U.S. beef feedlots shows the importance of capturing within-feedlot cattle contact structure for projecting infectious disease dynamics. Our model provides a tool for evaluating FMD outbreak control strategies.

Retrospect and Risk Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in China Based on Integrated Surveillance and Spatial Analysis Tools

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock and seriously affects the development of animal husbandry. It is necessary to defend the spread of FMD. To explore the distribution characteristics and transmission of FMD between 2010 and 2017 in China, Global Moran's I test and Getis-Ord Gi index were used to analyze the spatial cluster. A space-time permutation scan statistic was applied to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern. GIS-based method was employed to create a map representing the distribution pattern, directional trend, and hotspots for each outbreak. The number of cases was defined as the number of animals with FMD for the above analysis. We also constructed a phylogenetic tree to compare the homology and variation of FMD virus (FMDV) to provide a clue for the potential development of an effective vaccine. The results indicated that the FMD outbreaks in China had obvious time patterns and clusters in space and space-time, with the outbreaks concentrated in the first half of each year. The outbreaks of FMD decreased each year from 2010 with an obvious downward trend of hotspots. Spatial analysis revealed that the distribution of FMD outbreaks in 2010, 2015, and 2017 exhibited a clustered pattern. Space-time scanning revealed that the spatio-temporal clusters were centered in Guangdong, Tibet and the junction of Wuhan, Jiangxi, Anhui. Comparison of the spatial analysis and space-time analysis of FMD outbreaks revealed that Guangdong was the same cluster of the two in 2010. In addition, the directional trend analysis indicated that the FMD transmission was oriented northwest-southeast. The findings demonstrated that FMDV in China can be divided into three pedigrees and the homology of these strains is very high while comparing the first FMDV strain with the others. The data provide a basis for the effective monitoring and prevention of FMD, and for the development of an FMD vaccine in China.