Determinants of the eradicability of filarial infections: a conceptual approach

Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?

Epidemiological and modelling studies suggest that elimination of Onchocerca volvulus transmission (EoT) throughout Africa may not be achievable with annual mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin alone, particularly in areas of high endemicity and vector density. Single-dose Phase II and III clinical trials demonstrated moxidectin's superiority over ivermectin for prolonged clearance of O. volvulus microfilariae. We used the stochastic, individual-based EPIONCHO-IBM model to compare the probabilities of reaching EoT between ivermectin and moxidectin MDA for a range of endemicity levels (30 to 70% baseline microfilarial prevalence), treatment frequencies (annual and biannual) and therapeutic coverage/adherence values (65 and 80% of total population, with, respectively, 5 and 1% of systematic non-adherence). EPIONCHO-IBM's projections indicate that biannual (six-monthly) moxidectin MDA can reduce by half the number of years necessary to achieve EoT in mesoendemic areas and might be the only strategy that can achieve EoT in hyperendemic areas. Data needed to improve modelling projections include (i) the effect of repeated annual and biannual moxidectin treatment; (ii) inter- and intra-individual variation in response to successive treatments with moxidectin or ivermectin; (iii) the effect of moxidectin and ivermectin treatment on L3 development into adult worms; and (iv) patterns of adherence to moxidectin and ivermectin MDA. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Assessment of antigenemia among children in four hotspots of filarial endemic districts of Nepal during post-MDA surveillance

BACKGROUND

Sixty-three out of 77 districts reported lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic in Nepal. Mass drug administration (MDA) with diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) treatment program was continued for 6 to 11 rounds in these districts. Nepal government has stopped the MDA program based on the transmission assessment survey (TAS) report of 2014 and 2018 indicating Wuchereria bancrofti antigenemia prevalence < 2%. But the persistence of low levels of the circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in some foci of four endemic districts of Central Nepal, i.e., 0.4% in Dhading, 0.7% in Mahottari, 0.21% in Lalitpur and 1.2% in Bara district could responsible for enhancing the risk of infection resurgence. Hence the present study was designed to assess antigenic prevalence using Filariasis Test Strip (Alere, Scarborough ME) in children born after MDA in hotspot areas of four endemic districts of Central Nepal.

RESULTS

The present study covers 70% children of the eligible population. The result revealed significantly high CFA prevalence in hotspots of Mahottari district belonging to the Terai region and Dhading district belonging to the hilly region, i.e., 13% and 10%, respectively, compared to baseline prevalence and TAS report. While in Lalitpur district and Bara district CFA prevalence was still found to be less than 2%. A higher number of MDA rounds covered in hotspots were found significantly associated with the low antigenic prevalence of W. bancrofti. Whereas median treatment coverage and inter-quartile range (IQR) in study districts were not found significantly associated with CFA prevalence. Although the clinical manifestation of hydrocele (1%) was found in all four study districts, it was not due to the W. bancrofti infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Two hotspot regions, one each from the Terai (Mahottari) and hilly (Dhading) districts were found highly prevalent with CFA and significantly associated with the number of MDA rounds but were not associated with treatment coverage and IQR. Higher CFA prevalence was observed in hotspots where baseline prevalence was high together indicating that rounds of MDA program need to be extended further in these hotspot regions of endemic districts.

Evaluating elimination thresholds and stopping criteria for interventions against the vector-borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, using mathematical modelling

We leveraged the ability of EPIFIL transmission models fit to field data to evaluate the use of the WHO Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) for supporting Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) intervention stopping decisions. Our results indicate that understanding the underlying parasite extinction dynamics, particularly the protracted transient dynamics involved in shifts to the extinct state, is crucial for understanding the impacts of using TAS for determining the achievement of LF elimination. These findings warn that employing stopping criteria set for operational purposes, as employed in the TAS strategy, without a full consideration of the dynamics of extinction could seriously undermine the goal of achieving global LF elimination.

Molecular detection of Loxodontofilaria spp. in Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) from elephant training camps in Thailand

Filarial infection is an important disease in human and animal medicine. Several filarial worms are of importance, especially nematodes in the Onchocercidae. The Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is an endangered animal and is very important from several socio-economic and ecological aspects in Thailand. Various parasites can be found in elephants; however, data related to filarial infections in elephants is limited. The objective of this study was to detect filaria in the blood of Asian elephants in Thailand, based on a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique. Blood samples were collected from 208 Asian elephants and detected for filaria using PCR, targeting the region of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2), the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1), and the RNA polymerase II large subunit (rbp1). In total, 4.33% (9 out of 208) of the sampled elephants had Loxodontofilaria spp. DNA with 100% query coverage. In addition, the obtained cox1 and rbp1 sequences matched with Loxodontofilaria sp., Onchocerca sp., and Dirofilaria sp. There were no identified risk factors (sex, age, location, and packed cell volume) related to Loxodontofilaria infection in elephants. The analyses of the phylogeny of ITS2 sequences demonstrated that the Loxodotofilaria-positive sequences were closely related to Onchocerca dewittei japonica and Onchocerca dewittei dewittei with 100% query coverage. Notably, the concatenated phylogenetic trees of ITS2 and the cox1 and rbp1 genes were closely similar to Loxodontofilaria sp. To describe in detail the genomic DNA of Loxodontofilaria spp., other genes should be additionally studied using a more discriminatory technique, such as DNA barcoding or whole genome sequencing.

Spillover, hybridization, and persistence in schistosome transmission dynamics at the human-animal interface

Zoonotic spillover and hybridization of parasites are major emerging public and veterinary health concerns at the interface of infectious disease biology, evolution, and control. Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global importance caused by parasites of the Schistosoma genus, and the Schistosoma spp. system within Africa represents a key example of a system where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled formation of hybrids. Combining model-based approaches and analyses of parasitological, molecular, and epidemiological data from northern Senegal, a region with a high prevalence of schistosome hybrids, we aimed to unravel the transmission dynamics of this complex multihost, multiparasite system. Using Bayesian methods and by estimating the basic reproduction number (R0 ), we evaluate the frequency of zoonotic spillover of Schistosoma bovis from livestock and the potential for onward transmission of hybrid S. bovis × S. haematobium offspring within human populations. We estimate R0 of hybrid schistosomes to be greater than the critical threshold of one (1.76; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.99), demonstrating the potential for hybridization to facilitate spread and establishment of schistosomiasis beyond its original geographical boundaries. We estimate R0 for S. bovis to be greater than one in cattle (1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85) but not in other ruminants, confirming cattle as the primary zoonotic reservoir. Through longitudinal simulations, we also show that where S. bovis and S. haematobium are coendemic (in livestock and humans respectively), the relative importance of zoonotic transmission is predicted to increase as the disease in humans nears elimination.

Quantifying the risk of vector-borne disease transmission attributable to genetically modified vectors

The relative risk of disease transmission caused by the potential release of transgenic vectors, such as through sterile insect technique or gene drive systems, is assessed with comparison with wild-type vectors. The probabilistic risk framework is demonstrated with an assessment of the relative risk of lymphatic filariasis, malaria and o'nyong'nyong arbovirus transmission by mosquito vectors to human hosts given a released transgenic strain of Anopheles coluzzii carrying a dominant sterile male gene construct. Harm is quantified by a logarithmic loss function that depends on the causal risk ratio, which is a quotient of basic reproduction numbers derived from mathematical models of disease transmission. The basic reproduction numbers are predicted to depend on the number of generations in an insectary colony and the number of backcrosses between the transgenic and wild-type lineages. Analogous causal risk ratios for short-term exposure to a single cohort release are also derived. These causal risk ratios were parametrized by probabilistic elicitations, and updated with experimental data for adult vector mortality. For the wild-type, high numbers of insectary generations were predicted to reduce the number of infectious human cases compared with uncolonized wild-type. Transgenic strains were predicted to produce fewer infectious cases compared with the uncolonized wild-type.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation "slash and clear" vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis

Attention is increasingly focusing on how best to accelerate progress toward meeting the WHO's 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). For river blindness, a major NTD targeted for elimination, there is a long history of using vector control to suppress transmission, but traditional larvicide-based approaches are limited in their utility. One innovative and sustainable approach, "slash and clear", involves clearing vegetation from breeding areas, and recent field trials indicate that this technique very effectively reduces the biting density of Simulium damnosum s.s. In this study, we use a Bayesian data-driven mathematical modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of this intervention on human onchocerciasis infection. We developed a novel "slash and clear" model describing the effect of the intervention on seasonal black fly biting rates and coupled this with our population dynamics model of Onchocerca volvulus transmission. Our results indicate that supplementing annual drug treatments with "slash and clear" can significantly accelerate the achievement of onchocerciasis elimination. The efficacy of the intervention is not very sensitive to the timing of implementation, and the impact is meaningful even if vegetation is cleared only once per year. As such, this community-driven technique will represent an important option for achieving and sustaining O. volvulus elimination.

The roadmap towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis by 2030: insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000 to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem by 1) interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and 2) offering basic care to those suffering from lymphoedema or hydrocele due to the infection. Although impressive progress has been made, the initial target year of 2020 will not be met everywhere. The World Health Organization recently proposed 2030 as the new target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. In this letter, LF modelers of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) Modelling Consortium reflect on the proposed targets for 2030 from a quantitative perspective. While elimination as a public health problem seems technically and operationally feasible, it is uncertain whether this will eventually also lead to complete elimination of transmission. The risk of resurgence needs to be mitigated by strong surveillance after stopping interventions and sometimes perhaps additional interventions.

Transitioning from river blindness control to elimination: steps toward stopping treatment

The transition from onchocerciasis control to elimination requires country programmes to rethink their approach to a variety of activities as they move from addressing morbidity to addressing transmission of the parasite. Although the 2016 WHO guidelines provide extensive recommendations, it was beyond the scope of the document to provide guidance on all aspects of the transition. This paper will discuss some of the important issues that programmes are grappling with as they transition to elimination and provide some potential approaches that programmes can use to address them. Although there are some data to support some aspects of the suggested approaches, operational research will be needed to generate data to support these approaches further and to determine how programmes could best tailor them to their own unique epidemiological challenges. Good communication between the national programmes and the broader global programme will facilitate the clear articulation of programmatic challenges and the development of the evidence to support programme decision-making.

Potential factors influencing lymphatic filariasis transmission in "hotspot" and "control" areas in Ghana: the importance of vectors

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) programmes for the control of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana, have been ongoing in some endemic districts for 16 years. The current study aimed to assess factors that govern the success of MDA programmes for breaking transmission of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana.

METHODS

The study was undertaken in two "hotspot" districts (Ahanta West and Kassena Nankana West) and two control districts (Mpohor and Bongo) in Ghana. Mosquitoes were collected and identified using morphological and molecular tools. A proportion of the cibarial armatures of each species was examined. Dissections were performed on Anopheles gambiae for filarial worm detection. A questionnaire was administered to obtain information on MDA compliance and vector control activities. Data were compared between districts to determine factors that might explain persistent transmission of lymphatic filariasis.

RESULTS

High numbers of mosquitoes were sampled in Ahanta West district compared to Mpohor district (F = 16.09, P = 0.002). There was no significant difference between the numbers of mosquitoes collected in Kassena Nankana West and Bongo districts (F = 2.16, P = 0.185). Mansonia species were predominant in Ahanta West district. An. coluzzii mosquitoes were prevalent in all districts. An. melas with infected and infective filarial worms was found only in Ahanta West district. No differences were found in cibarial teeth numbers and shape for mosquito species in the surveyed districts. Reported MDA coverage was high in all districts. The average use of bednet and indoor residual spraying was 82.4 and 66.2%, respectively. There was high compliance in the five preceding MDA rounds in Ahanta West and Kassena Nankana West districts, both considered hotspots of lymphatic filariasis transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The study on persistent transmission of lymphatic filariasis in the two areas in Ghana present information that shows the importance of local understanding of factors affecting control and elimination of lymphatic filariasis. Unlike Kassena Nankana West district where transmission dynamics could be explained by initial infection prevalence and low vector densities, ongoing lymphatic filariasis transmission in Ahanta West district might be explained by high biting rates of An. gambiae and initial infection prevalence, coupled with high densities of An. melas and Mansonia vector species that have low or no teeth and exhibiting limitation.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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No single mathematical model captures all features of parasite transmission dynamics.

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Multi-model ensemble modelling can overcome biases of single models.

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A multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis models is proposed and evaluated.

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The multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models in predicting infection.

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The ensemble approach may improve use of models to inform disease control policy.

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

Elimination of lymphatic filariasis in west African urban areas: is implementation of mass drug administration necessary?

Lymphatic filariasis in Africa is caused by the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti and remains a major cause of morbidity and disability in 74 countries globally. A key strategy of the Global Programme for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis, which has a target elimination date of 2020, is the treatment of entire endemic communities through mass drug administration of albendazole in combination with either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine. Although the strategy of mass drug administration in combination with other interventions, such as vector control, has led to elimination of the infection and its transmission in many rural communities, urban areas in west Africa present specific challenges to achieving the 2020 targets. In this Personal View, we examine these challenges and the relevance of mass drug administration in urban areas, exploring the rationale for a reassessment of policy in these settings. The community-based mass treatment approach is best suited to rural areas, is challenging and costly in urban areas, and cannot easily achieve the 65% consistent coverage required for elimination of transmission. In our view, the implementation of mass drug administration might not be essential to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis in urban areas in west Africa. Evidence shows that transmission levels are low and that effective mass drug distribution is difficult to implement, with assessments suggesting that specific control measures against filariasis in such dynamic settings is not an effective use of limited resources. Instead, we recommend that individuals who have clinical disease or who test positive for W bancrofti infection in surveillance activities should be offered antifilarial drugs through a passive surveillance approach, as well as morbidity management for their needs. We also recommend that more precise studies are done, so that mass drug administration in urban areas is considered if sustainable transmission is found to be ongoing. Otherwise, the limited resources should be directed towards other elements of the lymphatic filariasis programme.

Malaria risk in young male travellers but local transmission persists: a case-control study in low transmission Namibia

Background

A key component of malaria elimination campaigns is the identification and targeting of high risk populations. To characterize high risk populations in north central Namibia, a prospective health facility-based case–control study was conducted from December 2012–July 2014. Cases (n = 107) were all patients presenting to any of the 46 health clinics located in the study districts with a confirmed Plasmodium infection by multi-species rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Population controls (n = 679) for each district were RDT negative individuals residing within a household that was randomly selected from a census listing using a two-stage sampling procedure. Demographic, travel, socio-economic, behavioural, climate and vegetation data were also collected. Spatial patterns of malaria risk were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for malaria.

Results

Malaria risk was observed to cluster along the border with Angola, and travel patterns among cases were comparatively restricted to northern Namibia and Angola. Travel to Angola was associated with excessive risk of malaria in males (OR 43.58 95% CI 2.12–896), but there was no corresponding risk associated with travel by females. This is the first study to reveal that gender can modify the effect of travel on risk of malaria. Amongst non-travellers, male gender was also associated with a higher risk of malaria compared with females (OR 1.95 95% CI 1.25–3.04). Other strong risk factors were sleeping away from the household the previous night, lower socioeconomic status, living in an area with moderate vegetation around their house, experiencing moderate rainfall in the month prior to diagnosis and living <15 km from the Angolan border.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the critical need to target malaria interventions to young male travellers, who have a disproportionate risk of malaria in northern Namibia, to coordinate cross-border regional malaria prevention initiatives and to scale up coverage of prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticide nets in high risk areas if malaria elimination is to be realized.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1719-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling Anti-Ov16 IgG4 Antibody Prevalence as an Indicator for Evaluation and Decision Making in Onchocerciasis Elimination Programmes

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is targeted for elimination in Africa through annual or biannual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). An immunodiagnostic test, based on the detection of human IgG4 antibodies in the blood to the Onchocerca volvulus-specific antigen Ov16, is one of the recommended tools for determining whether transmission is interrupted and mass treatment can stop. For different transmission settings, the relationship between post-MDA Ov16 antibody prevalence in children (measured 1 year after the last round of MDA) and the duration and coverage of MDA, the mf prevalence in the population, and the probability that onchocerciasis is eventually eliminated is explored through mathematical modelling.

METHODOLOGY

The ONCHOSIM model was extended with new output on the Ov16 antibody serostatus of individuals. Seroconversion was assumed to be triggered by the first worm establishing in the host, with seroconversion occurring either before maturation, after maturation or only after the start of mf production. We are mainly interested in seroconversion rates in children, and for now ignore the possibility of seroreversion to simplify the model.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Yearly repeated MDA leads to a strong reduction in the parasite acquisition rate in humans. This reduces the seroconversion rate in newborns and young children, while those who seroconverted before the start of control remain antibody positive. Both the microfiladermia prevalence in the population aged 5 years and above and the Ov16 antibody prevalence in children under 10 declined with increasing duration of MDA. The association between either of these indicators and the model-predicted probability of elimination was not influenced much by the assumed treatment coverage levels, but was found to depend on baseline endemicity levels, assumptions regarding the trigger of seroconversion, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

Better understanding of the dynamics of Ov16 antibody responses is required for accurate interpretation of seroprevalence data and more precise estimation of endpoint for MDA. Our study demonstrates that this endpoint will be dependent on baseline endemicity levels, which should be taken into account in guidelines for defining when to stop MDA.

Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background

India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this.

Methods

We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6–7 year-old children).

Conclusion

To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1768-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Bayesian calibration of simulation models for supporting management of the elimination of the macroparasitic disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

Background

Mathematical models of parasite transmission can help integrate a large body of information into a consistent framework, which can then be used for gaining mechanistic insights and making predictions. However, uncertainty, spatial variability and complexity, can hamper the use of such models for decision making in parasite management programs.

Methods

We have adapted a Bayesian melding framework for calibrating simulation models to address the need for robust modelling tools that can effectively support management of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination in diverse endemic settings. We applied this methodology to LF infection and vector biting data from sites across the major LF endemic regions in order to quantify model parameters, and generate reliable predictions of infection dynamics along with credible intervals for modelled output variables. We used the locally calibrated models to estimate breakpoint values for various indicators of parasite transmission, and simulate timelines to parasite extinction as a function of local variations in infection dynamics and breakpoints, and effects of various currently applied and proposed LF intervention strategies.

Results

We demonstrate that as a result of parameter constraining by local data, breakpoint values for all the major indicators of LF transmission varied significantly between the sites investigated. Intervention simulations using the fitted models showed that as a result of heterogeneity in local transmission and extinction dynamics, timelines to parasite elimination in response to the current Mass Drug Administration (MDA) and various proposed MDA with vector control strategies also varied significantly between the study sites. Including vector control, however, markedly reduced the duration of interventions required to achieve elimination as well as decreased the risk of recrudescence following stopping of MDA.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated how a Bayesian data-model assimilation framework can enhance the use of transmission models for supporting reliable decision making in the management of LF elimination. Extending this framework for delivering predictions in settings either lacking or with only sparse data to inform the modelling process, however, will require development of procedures to estimate and use spatio-temporal variations in model parameters and inputs directly, and forms the next stage of the work reported here.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1132-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Required duration of mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: a comparative modelling analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious targets for the elimination of onchocerciasis by 2020–2025 through mass ivermectin treatment. Two different mathematical models have assessed the feasibility of reaching this goal for different settings and treatment scenarios, namely the individual-based microsimulation model ONCHOSIM and the population-based deterministic model EPIONCHO. In this study, we harmonize some crucial assumptions and compare model predictions on common outputs.

Methods

Using a range of initial endemicity levels and treatment scenarios, we compared the models with respect to the following outcomes: 1) model-predicted trends in microfilarial (mf) prevalence and mean mf intensity during 25 years of (annual or biannual) mass ivermectin treatment; 2) treatment duration needed to bring mf prevalence below a provisional operational threshold for treatment interruption (pOTTIS, i.e. 1.4 %), and 3) treatment duration needed to drive the parasite population to local elimination, even in the absence of further interventions. Local elimination was judged by stochastic fade-out in ONCHOSIM and by reaching transmission breakpoints in EPIONCHO.

Results

ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO both predicted that in mesoendemic areas the pOTTIS can be reached with annual treatment, but that this strategy may be insufficient in very highly hyperendemic areas or would require prolonged continuation of treatment. For the lower endemicity levels explored, ONCHOSIM predicted that the time needed to reach the pOTTIS is longer than that needed to drive the parasite population to elimination, whereas for the higher endemicity levels the opposite was true. In EPIONCHO, the pOTTIS was reached consistently sooner than the breakpoint.

Conclusions

The operational thresholds proposed by APOC may have to be adjusted to adequately reflect differences in pre-control endemicities. Further comparative modelling work will be conducted to better understand the main causes of differences in model-predicted trends. This is a pre-requisite for guiding elimination programmes in Africa and refining operational criteria for stopping mass treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1159-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Costly Inheritance and the Persistence of Insecticide Resistance in Aedes aegypti Populations

Global emergence of arboviruses is a growing public health concern, since most of these diseases have no vaccine or prevention treatment available. In this scenario, vector control through the use of chemical insecticides is one of the most important prevention tools. Nevertheless, their effectiveness has been increasingly compromised by the development of strong resistance observed in field populations, even in spite of fitness costs usually associated to resistance. Using a stage-structured deterministic model parametrised for the Aedes aegypti--the main vector for dengue--we investigated the persistence of resistance by studying the time for a population which displays resistance to insecticide to revert to a susceptible population. By means of a comprehensive series of in-silico experiments, we studied this reversal time as a function of fitness costs and the initial presence of the resistance allele in the population. The resulting map provides both a guiding and a surveillance tool for public health officers to address the resistance situation of field populations. Application to field data from Brazil indicates that reversal can take, in some cases, decades even if fitness costs are not small. As by-products of this investigation, we were able to fit very simple formulas to the reversal times as a function of either cost or initial presence of the resistance allele. In addition, the in-silico experiments also showed that density dependent regulation plays an important role in the dynamics, slowing down the reversal process.

The Allee effect and elimination of neglected tropical diseases: a mathematical modelling study

Elimination and control programmes for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are underway around the world, yet they are generally informed by epidemiological modelling only to a rudimentary degree. Chief among the modelling-derived predictors of disease emergence or controllability is the basic reproduction number R0. The ecological systems of several of the NTDs include density-dependent processes--which alter the rate of e.g. parasite establishment or fecundity--that complicate the calculation of R0. Here we show how the forms of the density-dependent functions for a model of the NTD lymphatic filariasis affect the effective reproduction number Reff. We construct infection transmission models containing various density-dependent functions and show how they alter the shape of the Reff profile, affecting two important epidemiological outcome variables that relate to elimination and control programmes: the parasite transmission breakpoint (or extinction threshold) and the reproduction fitness, as measured by Reff. The current drive to control, eliminate or eradicate several parasitic infections would be substantially aided by the existence of ecological Allee effects. For these control programmes, the findings of this paper are encouraging, since a single positive density dependency (DD) can introduce a reasonable chance of achieving elimination; however, there are diminishing returns to additional positive DDs.

Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes.

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination by 2020 and to guide elimination efforts countries have, in recent years, conducted extensive mapping surveys. Documenting the past and present distribution of LF and its environmental limits is important for a number of reasons. Here, we present an initiative to develop a global atlas of LF and present a new global map of the limits of LF transmission.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic search and assembly of prevalence data worldwide and used a suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression trees (BRT) modelling to map the transmission limits of LF.

RESULTS

Data were identified for 66 of the 72 countries currently endemic and for a further 17 countries where LF is no longer endemic. Our map highlights a restricted and highly heterogeneous distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, with transmission more widespread in West Africa compared to east, central and southern Africa where pockets of transmission occur. Contemporary transmission occurs across much of south and South-east Asia and the Pacific. Interestingly, the risk map reflects environmental conditions suitable for LF transmission across Central and South America, including the southern States of America, although active transmission is only known in a few isolated foci. In countries that have eliminated LF, our predictions of environmental suitability are consistent with historical distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

The global distribution of LF is highly heterogeneous and geographically targeted and sustained control will be required to achieve elimination. This first global map can help evaluate the progress of interventions and guide surveillance activities.

A randomized, single-ascending-dose, ivermectin-controlled, double-blind study of moxidectin in Onchocerca volvulus infection

BACKGROUND

Control of onchocerciasis as a public health problem in Africa relies on annual mass ivermectin distribution. New tools are needed to achieve elimination of infection. This study determined in a small number of Onchocerca volvulus infected individuals whether moxidectin, a veterinary anthelminthic, is safe enough to administer it in a future large study to further characterize moxidectin's safety and efficacy. Effects on the parasite were also assessed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Men and women from a forest area in South-eastern Ghana without ivermectin mass distribution received a single oral dose of 2 mg (N = 44), 4 mg (N = 45) or 8 mg (N = 38) moxidectin or 150 µg/kg ivermectin (N = 45) with 18 months follow up. All ivermectin and 97%-100% of moxidectin treated participants had Mazzotti reactions. Statistically significantly higher percentages of participants treated with 8 mg moxidectin than participants treated with ivermectin experienced pruritus (87% vs. 56%), rash (63% vs. 42%), increased pulse rate (61% vs. 36%) and decreased mean arterial pressure upon 2 minutes standing still after ≥5 minutes supine relative to pre-treatment (61% vs. 27%). These reactions resolved without treatment. In the 8 mg moxidectin and ivermectin arms, the mean±SD number of microfilariae/mg skin were 22.9±21.1 and 21.2±16.4 pre-treatment and 0.0±0.0 and 1.1±4.2 at nadir reached 1 and 3 months after treatment, respectively. At 6 months, values were 0.0±0.0 and 1.6±4.5, at 12 months 0.4±0.9 and 3.4±4.4 and at 18 months 1.8±3.3 and 4.0±4.8, respectively, in the 8 mg moxidectin and ivermectin arm. The reduction from pre-treatment values was significantly higher after 8 mg moxidectin than after ivermectin treatment throughout follow up (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The 8 mg dose of moxidectin was safe enough to initiate the large study. Provided its results confirm those from this study, availability of moxidectin to control programmes could help them achieve onchocerciasis elimination objectives.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00300768.

Community-wide distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets can halt transmission of lymphatic filariasis in southeastern Nigeria

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) in rural southeastern Nigeria is transmitted mainly by Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Potential coinfection with Loa loa in this area has prevented use of ivermectin in the mass drug administration (MDA) strategy for LF elimination because of potential severe adverse L. loa-related reactions. This study determined if long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) distribution programs for malaria would interrupt LF transmission in such areas, without need for MDA. Monthly entomologic monitoring was conducted in sentinel villages before and after LLIN distribution to all households and all age groups (full coverage) in two districts, and to pregnant women and children less than five years of age in the other two districts. No change in human LF microfilaremia prevalence was observed, but mosquito studies showed a statistically significant decrease in LF infection and infectivity with full-coverage LLIN distribution. We conclude that LF transmission can be halted in southeastern Nigeria by full-coverage LLIN distribution, without MDA.

Sequential modelling of the effects of mass drug treatments on anopheline-mediated lymphatic filariasis infection in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA) worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints, casting uncertainty on the achievement of this initiative. One source of difficulty is the limited quantity and quality of data used to parameterize models of parasite transmission, implying the important need to update initially-derived parameter values. Sequential analysis of longitudinal data following annual MDAs will also be important to gaining new understanding of the persistence dynamics of LF. Here, we apply a Bayesian statistical-dynamical modelling framework that enables assimilation of information in human infection data recorded from communities in Papua New Guinea that underwent annual MDAs, into our previously developed model of parasite transmission, in order to examine these questions in LF ecology and control.

RESULTS

Biological parameters underlying transmission obtained by fitting the model to longitudinal data remained stable throughout the study period. This enabled us to reliably reconstruct the observed baseline data in each community. Endpoint estimates also showed little variation. However, the updating procedure showed a shift towards higher and less variable values for worm kill but not for any other drug-related parameters. An intriguing finding is that the stability in key biological parameters could be disrupted by a significant reduction in the vector biting rate prevailing in a locality.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal invariance of biological parameters in the face of intervention perturbations indicates a robust adaptation of LF transmission to local ecological conditions. The results imply that understanding the mechanisms that underlie locally adapted transmission dynamics will be integral to identifying points of system fragility, and thus countermeasures to reliably facilitate LF extinction both locally and globally.

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination's ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system's increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination's stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Diversity and transmission competence in lymphatic filariasis vectors in West Africa, and the implications for accelerated elimination of Anopheles-transmitted filariasis

Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) is targeted for elimination by the Global Programme for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). The strategy adopted is based on the density dependent phenomenon of Facilitation, which hypothesizes that in an area where the vector species transmitting Wuchereria bancrofti are Anopheles mosquitoes, it is feasible to eliminate LF using Mass Drug Administration (MDA) because of the inability of Anopheles species to transmit low-density microfilaraemia. Even though earlier studies have shown Anopheles species can exhibit the process of Facilitation in West Africa, observations point towards the process of Limitation in certain areas, in which case vector control is recommended. Studies on Anopheles species in West Africa have also shown genetic differentiation, cryptic taxa and speciation, insecticide resistance and the existence of molecular and chromosomal forms, all of which could influence the vectorial capacity of the mosquitoes and ultimately the elimination goal. This paper outlines the uniqueness of LF vectors in West Africa and the challenges it poses to the 2020 elimination goal, based on the current MDA strategies.

Malaria and lymphatic filariasis: the case for integrated vector management

The global programmes to eliminate both malaria and lymphatic filariasis are facing operational and technical challenges. Available data show that the use of treated or untreated bednets and indoor residual spraying for malaria control concomitantly reduced filarial rates. In turn, mass drug administration campaigns against lymphatic filariasis can be combined with the distribution of insecticide-treated bednets. Combining these disease control efforts could lead to more efficient use of resources, more accurate attribution of effects, and more effective control of both diseases. Systematic integration requires coordination at all levels, mapping of coendemic areas, and comprehensive monitoring and evaluation.

Mansonia africana and Mansonia uniformis are vectors in the transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti lymphatic filariasis in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Recent data from Ghana indicates that after seven rounds of annual mass drug administration (MDA) there is still sustained transmission albeit at low levels in certain areas where Anopheles melas, An. gambiae s.s., Mansonia and Culex species are the main biting mosquitoes. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus are the known vectors in Ghana and a recent report indicated that An. melas could transmit at low level microfilaraemia. However, because An. melas is not found everywhere there was the need to determine whether any of the other culicine species could also be playing a role in the transmission of LF.

METHODS

Indoor mosquitoes collected once a month for three months using pyrethrum spray catches in six communities within the Kommenda-Edina-Eguafo-Abirem (KEEA) District, Central Region of Ghana were morphologically identified, dissected and examined for the presence of W. bancrofti. Additionally, stored mosquito samples collected during previous years in 8 communities from the Gomoa District also in the Central Region were similarly processed. The identities of all W. bancrofti parasites found were confirmed using an established PCR method.

RESULTS

A total of 825 indoor resting mosquitoes comprising of 501 Anopheles species, 239 Mansonia species, 84 Culex species and 1 Aedes species were dissected and examined for the presence of W. bancrofti. Mansonia africana had infection and infectivity rates of 2.5%. and 2.1% respectively. Anopheles gambiae s.l. had an infection rate of 0.4% and a similar infectivity rate. None of the Culex sp. and Aedes sp were found with infection. From the stored mosquitoes the infection and infectivity rates for M. africana were 7.6% (N=144) and 2.8% respectively whilst the corresponding rates for M. uniformis were 2.9% (N=244) and 0.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of Mansonia species as vectors of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in Ghana and in West Africa since that of 1958 in Guinea. The revelation of a hitherto unrecognised vector which is possibly more efficient in transmission than the recognised ones has a profound implication for elimination of lymphatic filariasis programmes in the sub-region.

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: modelling for control and elimination

Mathematical modelling of helminth infections has the potential to inform policy and guide research for the control and elimination of human helminthiases. However, this potential, unlike in other parasitic and infectious diseases, has yet to be realised. To place contemporary efforts in a historical context, a summary of the development of mathematical models for helminthiases is presented. These efforts are discussed according to the role that models can play in furthering our understanding of parasite population biology and transmission dynamics, and the effect on such dynamics of control interventions, as well as in enabling estimation of directly unobservable parameters, exploration of transmission breakpoints, and investigation of evolutionary outcomes of control. The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps. A research and development agenda for helminthiasis modelling is proposed based on identified gaps that need to be addressed for models to become useful decision tools that can support research and control operations effectively. This agenda includes the use of models to estimate the impact of large-scale interventions on infection incidence; the design of sampling protocols for the monitoring and evaluation of integrated control programmes; the modelling of co-infections; the investigation of the dynamical relationship between infection and morbidity indicators; the improvement of analytical methods for the quantification of anthelmintic efficacy and resistance; the determination of programme endpoints; the linking of dynamical helminth models with helminth geostatistical mapping; and the investigation of the impact of climate change on human helminthiases. It is concluded that modelling should be embedded in helminth research, and in the planning, evaluation, and surveillance of interventions from the outset. Modellers should be essential members of interdisciplinary teams, propitiating a continuous dialogue with end users and stakeholders to reflect public health needs in the terrain, discuss the scope and limitations of models, and update biological assumptions and model outputs regularly. It is highlighted that to reach these goals, a collaborative framework must be developed for the collation, annotation, and sharing of databases from large-scale anthelmintic control programmes, and that helminth modellers should join efforts to tackle key questions in helminth epidemiology and control through the sharing of such databases, and by using diverse, yet complementary, modelling approaches.

Assessment and monitoring of onchocerciasis in Latin America

Onchocerciasis has historically been one of the leading causes of infectious blindness worldwide. It is endemic to tropical regions both in Africa and Latin America and in the Yemen. In Latin America, it is found in 13 foci located in 6 different countries. The epidemiologically most important focus of onchocerciasis in the Americas is located in a region spanning the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, the Amazonian focus straddling the border of Venezuela and Brazil is larger in overall area because the Yanomami populations are scattered over a very large geographical region. Onchocerciasis is caused by infection with the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The infection is spread through the bites of an insect vector, black flies of the genus Simulium. In Africa, the major vectors are members of the S. damnosum complex, while numerous species serve as vectors of the parasite in Latin America. Latin America has had a long history of attempts to control onchocerciasis, stretching back almost 100 years. The earliest programmes used a strategy of surgical removal of the adult parasites from affected individuals. However, because many of the adult parasites lodge in undetectable and inaccessible areas of the body, the overall effect of this strategy on the prevalence of infection was relatively minor. In 1988, a new drug, ivermectin, was introduced that effectively killed the larval stage (microfilaria) of the parasite in infected humans. As the microfilaria is both the stage that is transmitted by the vector fly and the cause of most of the pathologies associated with the infection, ivermectin opened up a new strategy for the control of onchocerciasis. Concurrent with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of onchocerciasis, a number of sensitive new diagnostic tools were developed (both serological and nucleic acid based) that provided the efficiency, sensitivity and specificity necessary to monitor the decline and eventual elimination of onchocerciasis as a result of successful control. As a result of these advances, a strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis was developed, based upon mass distribution of ivermectin to afflicted communities for periods lasting long enough to ensure that the parasite population was placed on the road to local elimination. This strategy has been applied for the past decade to the foci in Latin America by a programme overseen by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA). The efforts spearheaded by OEPA have been very successful, eliminating ocular disease caused by O. volvulus, and eliminating and interrupting transmission of the parasite in 8 of the 13 foci in the region. As onchocerciasis approaches elimination in Latin America, several questions still need to be addressed. These include defining an acceptable upper limit for transmission in areas in which transmission is thought to have been suppressed (e.g. what is the maximum value for the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for transmission rates in areas where transmission is no longer detectable), how to develop strategies for conducting surveillance for recrudescence of infection in areas in which transmission is thought to be interrupted and how to address the problem in areas where the mass distribution of ivermectin seems to be unable to completely eliminate the infection.

Spatial waves of advance with bistable dynamics: cytoplasmic and genetic analogues of Allee effects

Unlike unconditionally advantageous "Fisherian" variants that tend to spread throughout a species range once introduced anywhere, "bistable" variants, such as chromosome translocations, have two alternative stable frequencies, absence and (near) fixation. Analogous to populations with Allee effects, bistable variants tend to increase locally only once they become sufficiently common, and their spread depends on their rate of increase averaged over all frequencies. Several proposed manipulations of insect populations, such as using Wolbachia or "engineered underdominance" to suppress vector-borne diseases, produce bistable rather than Fisherian dynamics. We synthesize and extend theoretical analyses concerning three features of their spatial behavior: rate of spread, conditions to initiate spread from a localized introduction, and wave stopping caused by variation in population densities or dispersal rates. Unlike Fisherian variants, bistable variants tend to spread spatially only for particular parameter combinations and initial conditions. Wave initiation requires introduction over an extended region, while subsequent spatial spread is slower than for Fisherian waves and can easily be halted by local spatial inhomogeneities. We present several new results, including robust sufficient conditions to initiate (and stop) spread, using a one-parameter cubic approximation applicable to several models. The results have both basic and applied implications.

Epidemiological and entomological evaluations after six years or more of mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination in Nigeria

The current strategy for interrupting transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is annual mass drug administration (MDA), at good coverage, for 6 or more years. We describe our programmatic experience delivering the MDA combination of ivermectin and albendazole in Plateau and Nasarawa states in central Nigeria, where LF is caused by anopheline transmitted Wuchereria bancrofti. Baseline LF mapping using rapid blood antigen detection tests showed mean local government area (LGA) prevalence of 23% (range 4–62%). MDA was launched in 2000 and by 2003 had been scaled up to full geographic coverage in all 30 LGAs in the two states; over 26 million cumulative directly observed treatments were provided by community drug distributors over the intervention period. Reported treatment coverage for each round was ≥85% of the treatment eligible population of 3.7 million, although a population-based coverage survey in 2003 showed lower coverage (72.2%; 95% CI 65.5–79.0%). To determine impact on transmission, we monitored three LF infection parameters (microfilaremia, antigenemia, and mosquito infection) in 10 sentinel villages (SVs) serially. The last monitoring was done in 2009, when SVs had been treated for 7–10 years. Microfilaremia in 2009 decreased by 83% from baseline (from 4.9% to 0.8%); antigenemia by 67% (from 21.6% to 7.2%); mosquito infection rate (all larval stages) by 86% (from 3.1% to 0.4%); and mosquito infectivity rate (L3 stages) by 76% (from 1.3% to 0.3%). All changes were statistically significant. Results suggest that LF transmission has been interrupted in 5 of the 10 SVs, based on 2009 finding of microfilaremia ≥1% and/or L3 stages in mosquitoes. Four of the five SVs where transmission persists had baseline antigenemia prevalence of >25%. Longer or additional interventions (e.g., more frequent MDA treatments, insecticidal bed nets) should be considered for ‘hot spots’ where transmission is ongoing.

Lymphatic filariasis is a mosquito transmitted disease that is best known for causing elephantiasis (grossly swollen legs and genitals). The current strategy for halting lymphatic filariasis in sub Saharan Africa is to establish programs that deliver 6 or more years of annual doses of tablets in community wide treatment programs (called mass drug administration). The tablets are safe, and donated by Merck & Co. and GlaxoSmithKline. We describe a mass drug administration program in central Nigeria that has, since 2000, provided over 23 million cumulative annual treatments to a population of 3.7 million persons. To assess what should be happening generally throughout the program area, lymphatic filariasis infection was monitored in ten ‘sentinel villages.’ In 2009, sentinel village monitoring showed that lymphatic filariasis infection had been reduced between 67–86% compared to levels present when the program began. However, these results were not as good as desired, and suggest that longer or increased efforts are needed beyond 6 years if lymphatic filariasis elimination is to be achieved.

Control of onchocerciasis in Africa: threshold shifts, breakpoints and rules for elimination

Control of onchocerciasis in Africa is currently based on annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) which has been assumed to be not efficient enough to bring about elimination. However, elimination has recently been reported to have been achieved by CDTI alone in villages of Senegal and Mali, reviving debate on the eradicability of onchocerciasis in Africa. We investigate the eradicability of onchocerciasis by examining threshold shifts and breakpoints predicted by a stochastic transmission model that has been fitted extensively to data. We show that elimination based on CDTI relies on shifting the threshold biting rate to a level that is higher than the annual biting rate. Breakpoints become relevant in the context of when to stop CDTI. In order for the model to predict a good chance for CDTI to eliminate onchocerciasis, facilitating factors such as the macrofilaricidal effect of ivermectin must be assumed. A chart predicting the minimum efficacy of CDTI required for elimination, dependent on the annual biting rate, is provided. Generalisable recommendations into strategies for the elimination of onchocerciasis are derived, particularly referring to the roles of vectors, the residual infection rate under control, and a low-spreader problem originating from patients with low parasite burdens.

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are parasitic helminth diseases that constitute a serious public health issue in tropical regions. The filarial nematodes that cause these diseases are transmitted by blood-feeding insects and produce chronic and long-term infection through suppression of host immunity. Disease pathogenesis is linked to host inflammation invoked by the death of the parasite, causing hydrocoele, lymphoedema, and elephantiasis in lymphatic filariasis, and skin disease and blindness in onchocerciasis. Most filarial species that infect people co-exist in mutualistic symbiosis with Wolbachia bacteria, which are essential for growth, development, and survival of their nematode hosts. These endosymbionts contribute to inflammatory disease pathogenesis and are a target for doxycycline therapy, which delivers macrofilaricidal activity, improves pathological outcomes, and is effective as monotherapy. Drugs to treat filariasis include diethylcarbamazine, ivermectin, and albendazole, which are used mostly in combination to reduce microfilariae in blood (lymphatic filariasis) and skin (onchocerciasis). Global programmes for control and elimination have been developed to provide sustained delivery of drugs to affected communities to interrupt transmission of disease and ultimately eliminate this burden on public health.

Studies of Anopheles gambiae s.l (Diptera: Culicidae) exhibiting different vectorial capacities in lymphatic filariasis transmission in the Gomoa district, Ghana

Background

Two lymphatic filariasis endemic communities Mampong and Hwida in Ghana have been regularly monitored for impact on transmission after annual mass drug administration (MDA) with albendazole and ivermectin. After six MDAs even though the ABR for Mampong was 55883/person/year and that of Hwida was 2494/person/year, they both had ATPs of 15.21 infective larvae/person/year. Interestingly the human microfilaraemia levels had reduced significantly from 14% to 0% at Mampong and 12% to 3% at Hwida. In an attempt to understand this anomaly, we collected mosquitoes over a 5-month period using human landing catches to determine the species composition, the number of cibarial teeth, the lengths and widths of the cibarium and the cibarial dome of the vector populations.

Results

Out of 2553 mosquitoes caught at Mampong, 42.6% were An. gambiae s.l. All 280 identified further by PCR were An. gambiae s.s (275 M and 5 S molecular forms). At Hwida, 112 mosquitoes were obtained; 67 (59.8%) were An. gambiae s.l, comprised of 40 (59.7%) An. melas, 24 (35.8%) An. gambiae s.s (17 and 5 M and S molecular forms respectively) and 3 (4.5%) unidentified. The mean number of teeth for An. melas was 14.1 (median = 14, range = 12-15), An. gambiae s.s., 15.7 (median = 15, range = 13-19) M form 15.5 (median = 15 range = 13-19) and S form 16 (median = 16, range 15-17). The observed differences in teeth numbers were significantly different between An. melas and An. gambiae s.s (p = 0.004), and the M form (p = 0.032) and the S form (p = 0.002).

Conclusions

In this study, An. gambiae s.s was the main vector at Mampong and was found to possess significantly more cibarial teeth than An. melas, the principal vector at Hwida. We postulate that the different impact observed after 6 MDAs may be due to An. gambiae s.s exhibiting 'facilitation' at Mampong and at Hwida An. melas the main vector exhibits 'limitation'. Thus it may be necessary to compliment MDA with vector control to achieve interruption of transmission in areas where An. melas may exhibit limitation.

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

Geographic and ecologic heterogeneity in elimination thresholds for the major vector-borne helminthic disease, lymphatic filariasis

Background

Large-scale intervention programmes to control or eliminate several infectious diseases are currently underway worldwide. However, a major unresolved question remains: what are reasonable stopping points for these programmes? Recent theoretical work has highlighted how the ecological complexity and heterogeneity inherent in the transmission dynamics of macroparasites can result in elimination thresholds that vary between local communities. Here, we examine the empirical evidence for this hypothesis and its implications for the global elimination of the major macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, by applying a novel Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit a dynamic model of the transmission of this parasitic disease to field data from nine villages with different ecological and geographical characteristics. Baseline lymphatic filariasis microfilarial age-prevalence data from three geographically distinct endemic regions, across which the major vector populations implicated in parasite transmission also differed, were used to fit and calibrate the relevant vector-specific filariasis transmission models. Ensembles of parasite elimination thresholds, generated using the Bayesian fitting procedure, were then examined in order to evaluate site-specific heterogeneity in the values of these thresholds and investigate the ecological factors that may underlie such variability

Results

We show that parameters of density-dependent functions relating to immunity, parasite establishment, as well as parasite aggregation, varied significantly between the nine different settings, contributing to locally varying filarial elimination thresholds. Parasite elimination thresholds predicted for the settings in which the mosquito vector is anopheline were, however, found to be higher than those in which the mosquito is culicine, substantiating our previous theoretical findings. The results also indicate that the probability that the parasite will be eliminated following six rounds of Mass Drug Administration with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole decreases markedly but non-linearly as the annual biting rate and parasite reproduction number increases.

Conclusions

This paper shows that specific ecological conditions in a community can lead to significant local differences in population dynamics and, consequently, elimination threshold estimates for lymphatic filariasis. These findings, and the difficulty of measuring the key local parameters (infection aggregation and acquired immunity) governing differences in transmission thresholds between communities, mean that it is necessary for us to rethink the utility of the current anticipatory approaches for achieving the elimination of filariasis both locally and globally.

Epidemiology and control of onchocerciasis: the threshold biting rate of savannah onchocerciasis in Africa

Control of onchocerciasis currently focuses on community-directed treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin which effectively kills Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae in the human host. The feasibility of elimination by this control strategy has recently been reported for some foci in Africa which has rekindled discussions on evaluating the threshold conditions of elimination of onchocerciasis. We developed a stochastic model based on a master equation which predicts, based on data from West and Central Africa, that elimination of savannah onchocerciasis can be expected around a threshold biting rate of 730 bites per person per year, ranging region-specifically roughly from 230 to 2300 bites per person and year. The threshold values give rise to optimism that elimination of onchocerciasis is feasible, but the associated measures of parasite prevalence and density suggest that onchocerciasis can remain endemic at very low infection intensities. Endemicity at a low level is a risk factor for elimination strategies, and we point to the necessity of investigating these issues on the basis of breakpoints which refer to threshold conditions based on parasite prevalence and density.

The role of monitoring mosquito infection in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

In addition to monitoring infection in the human host, there is also a need to assess larval infection in the vector mosquito population to evaluate the success of interventions for eliminating lymphatic filariasis transmission from endemic communities. Here, we review the current status of the available tools for quantifying vector infection and existing knowledge and evidence regarding potential infection thresholds for determining transmission interruption, to assess the potential for using vector infection monitoring as a tool for evaluating the success of filariasis treatment programmes.

Onchocerca-Simulium interactions and the population and evolutionary biology of Onchocerca volvulus

Parasite-vector interactions shape the population dynamics of vector-borne infections and contribute to observed epidemiological patterns. Also, parasites and their vectors may co-evolve, giving rise to locally adapted combinations or complexes with the potential to stabilise the infection. Here, we focus on Onchocerca-Simulium interactions with particular reference to the transmission dynamics of human onchocerciasis. A wide range of simuliid species may act as vectors of Onchocerca volvulus, each exerting their own influence over the local epidemiology and the feasibility of controlling/eliminating the infection. Firstly, current understanding of the processes involved in parasite acquisition by, and development within, different Simulium species in West Africa and Latin America will be reviewed. A description of how Onchocerca and Simulium exert reciprocal effects on each other's survival at various stages of the parasite's life cycle within the blackfly, and may have adapted to minimise deleterious effects on fitness and maximise transmission will be given. Second, we describe the interactions in terms of resultant (positive and negative) density-dependent processes that regulate parasite abundance, and discuss their incorporation into mathematical models that provide useful qualitative insight regarding transmission breakpoints. Finally, we examine the interactions' influence upon the evolution of anthelmintic resistance, and conclude that local adaptation of Onchocerca-Simulium complexes will influence the feasibility of eliminating the parasite reservoir in different foci.

Role of vector control in the global program to eliminate lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major cause of acute and chronic morbidity in the tropical and subtropical parts of the world. The availability of safe, single-dose, drug treatment regimens capable of suppressing microfilaremia to very low levels, along with improvements in techniques for diagnosing infection, has resulted in the targeting of this major mosquito-borne disease for global elimination. The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) was launched in 2000 with the principal objective of breaking the cycles of transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti and Brugia spp. through the application of annual mass drug administrations (MDAs) to entire at-risk populations. Although significant progress in initiating MDA programs in endemic countries has been made, emerging challenges to this approach have raised questions regarding the effectiveness of using MDA alone to eliminate LF without the inclusion of supplementary vector control. Here, we review advances in knowledge of vector ecology, vector-parasite relationships, and both empirical and theoretical evidence regarding vector management to assess the feasibility and strategic value of including vector control in the GPELF initiative to achieve the global elimination of LF.

LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages

LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.