Living with uncertainty

Immune resilience despite inflammatory stress promotes longevity and favorable health outcomes including resistance to infection

Some people remain healthier throughout life than others but the underlying reasons are poorly understood. Here we hypothesize this advantage is attributable in part to optimal immune resilience (IR), defined as the capacity to preserve and/or rapidly restore immune functions that promote disease resistance (immunocompetence) and control inflammation in infectious diseases as well as other causes of inflammatory stress. We gauge IR levels with two distinct peripheral blood metrics that quantify the balance between (i) CD8+ and CD4+ T-cell levels and (ii) gene expression signatures tracking longevity-associated immunocompetence and mortality-associated inflammation. Profiles of IR metrics in ~48,500 individuals collectively indicate that some persons resist degradation of IR both during aging and when challenged with varied inflammatory stressors. With this resistance, preservation of optimal IR tracked (i) a lower risk of HIV acquisition, AIDS development, symptomatic influenza infection, and recurrent skin cancer; (ii) survival during COVID-19 and sepsis; and (iii) longevity. IR degradation is potentially reversible by decreasing inflammatory stress. Overall, we show that optimal IR is a trait observed across the age spectrum, more common in females, and aligned with a specific immunocompetence-inflammation balance linked to favorable immunity-dependent health outcomes. IR metrics and mechanisms have utility both as biomarkers for measuring immune health and for improving health outcomes.

Congenital toxoplasmosis in Austria: Prenatal screening for prevention is cost-saving

BACKGROUND

Primary infection of Toxoplasma gondii during pregnancy can be transmitted to the unborn child and may have serious consequences, including retinochoroiditis, hydrocephaly, cerebral calcifications, encephalitis, splenomegaly, hearing loss, blindness, and death. Austria, a country with moderate seroprevalence, instituted mandatory prenatal screening for toxoplasma infection to minimize the effects of congenital transmission. This work compares the societal costs of congenital toxoplasmosis under the Austrian national prenatal screening program with the societal costs that would have occurred in a No-Screening scenario.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We retrospectively investigated data from the Austrian Toxoplasmosis Register for birth cohorts from 1992 to 2008, including pediatric long-term follow-up until May 2013. We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare lifetime societal costs of prenatal screening with lifetime societal costs estimated in a No-Screening scenario. We included costs of treatment, lifetime care, accommodation of injuries, loss of life, and lost earnings that would have occurred in a No-Screening scenario and compared them with the actual costs of screening, treatment, lifetime care, accommodation, loss of life, and lost earnings. We replicated that analysis excluding loss of life and lost earnings to estimate the budgetary impact alone. Our model calculated total lifetime costs of €103 per birth under prenatal screening as carried out in Austria, saving €323 per birth compared with No-Screening. Without screening and treatment, lifetime societal costs for all affected children would have been €35 million per year; the implementation costs of the Austrian program are less than €2 million per year. Calculating only the budgetary impact, the national program was still cost-saving by more than €15 million per year and saved €258 million in 17 years.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Cost savings under a national program of prenatal screening for toxoplasma infection and treatment are outstanding. Our results are of relevance for health care providers by supplying economic data based on a unique national dataset including long-term follow-up of affected infants.

Rush to judgment: the STI-treatment trials and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

The extraordinarily high incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa led to the search for cofactor infections that could explain the high rates of transmission in the region. Genital inflammation and lesions caused by sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were a probable mechanism, and numerous observational studies indicated several STI cofactors. Nine out of the ten randomized controlled trials (RCTs), however, failed to demonstrate that treating STIs could lower HIV incidence. We evaluate all 10 trials to determine if their design permits the conclusion, widely believed, that STI treatment is ineffective in reducing HIV incidence.

DISCUSSION

Examination of the trials reveals critical methodological problems sufficient to account for statistically insignificant outcomes in nine of the ten trials. Shortcomings of the trials include weak exposure contrast, confounding, non-differential misclassification, contamination and effect modification, all of which consistently bias the results toward the null. In any future STI-HIV trial, ethical considerations will again require weak exposure contrast. The complexity posed by HIV transmission in the genital microbial environment means that any future STI-HIV trial will face confounding, non-differential misclassification and effect modification. As a result, it is unlikely that additional trials would be able to answer the question of whether STI control reduces HIV incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Shortcomings in published RCTs render invalid the conclusion that treating STIs and other cofactor infections is ineffective in HIV prevention. Meta-analyses of observational studies conclude that STIs can raise HIV transmission efficiency two- to fourfold. Health policy is always implemented under uncertainty. Given the known benefits of STI control, the irreparable harm from not treating STIs and the likely decline in HIV incidence resulting from STI control, it is appropriate to expand STI control programmes and to use funds earmarked for HIV prevention to finance those programmes.

Beyond mice and men: environmental change, immunity and infections in wild ungulates

In the face of rapid environmental change, anticipating shifts in microparasite and macroparasite dynamics, including emergence events, is an enormous challenge. We argue that immunological studies in natural populations are pivotal to meeting this challenge: many components of environmental change--shifts in biotic assemblages, altered climate patterns and reduced environmental predictability--may affect host immunity. We suggest that wild ungulates can serve as model systems aiding the discovery of immunological mechanisms that link environmental change with parasite transmission dynamics. Our review of eco-immunological studies in wild ungulates reveals progress in understanding how co-infections affect immunity and parasite transmission and how environmental and genetic factors interact to shape immunity. Changes in bioavailability of micronutrients have been linked to immunity and health in wild ungulates. Although physiological stress in response to environmental change has been assessed, downstream effects on immunity have not been studied. Moreover, the taxonomic range of ungulates studied is limited to bovids (bighorn sheep, Soay sheep, chamois, musk oxen, bison, African buffalo) and a few cervids (red deer, black-tailed deer). We discuss areas where future studies in ungulates could lead to significant contributions in understanding the patterns of immunity and infection in natural populations and across species.

Evaluating the potential impact of mass praziquantel administration for HIV prevention in Schistosoma haematobium high-risk communities

Genital infection with Schistosoma haematobium is prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. Epidemiological studies have observed that genital schistosomiasis is associated with an increased odd of HIV infection among women. We used mathematical modeling to explore the potential impact of mass preventive chemotherapy against schistosomiasis on HIV transmission in three sub-Saharan Africa countries: Angola, Kenya, and Zambia. We developed a model of female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) and HIV transmission dynamics, fitting it to data of HIV and S. haematobium prevalences as well as co-infection. We simulated targeted mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel to school-age children and mass treatment of the entire community. We estimated that, in S. haematobium high-risk communities, targeted annual treatment of school-age children could reduce HIV prevalence by 20% (95% CI: 12-31%) in Angola, 16% (95% CI: 10-32%) in Kenya, and 6% (95% CI: 3-18%) in Zambia after the first 20 years of intervention; and would reduce HIV incidence by 15% (95% CI: 13-32%) in Angola, 22% (95% CI: 18-42%) in Kenya, and 9% (95% CI: 3-22%) in Zambia. Extending the intervention to adults could reduce HIV prevalence by an additional 2.2% (95% CI: 0.2-12.0%) in Angola, 1.8% (95% CI: 0.1-5.2%) in Kenya, and 0.3% (95% CI: 0.1-2.1%) in Zambia; and would reduce HIV incidence by an additional 1.8% (95% CI: 0.0-14.4%) in Angola, 6.1% (95% CI: 0.5-12.6%) in Kenya, and 0.8% (95% CI: 0.0-2.7%) in Zambia. We showed that the exacerbation of HIV transmission due to FGS and the probability of developing FGS as a result of childhood infection with S. haematobium, were the most important factors in determining the effectiveness of praziquantel MDA for reducing HIV transmission. Praziquantel MDA may be an innovative measure for reducing schistosomiasis and HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, the effectiveness of which varies with HIV prevalence.

Effect of helminth-induced immunity on infections with microbial pathogens

Helminth infections are ubiquitous worldwide and can trigger potent immune responses that differ from and potentially antagonize host protective responses to microbial pathogens. In this Review we focus on the three main killers in infectious disease-AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria-and critically assesses whether helminths adversely influence host control of these diseases. We also discuss emerging concepts for how M2 macrophages and helminth-modulated dendritic cells can potentially influence the protective immune response to concurrent infections. Finally, we present evidence advocating for more efforts to determine how and to what extent helminths interfere with the successful control of specific concurrent coinfections.

HIV and Schistosoma haematobium prevalences correlate in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

Epidemiological studies have observed that genital schistosomiasis increases the risk of HIV infection in Africa. We analysed the correlation between Schistosoma haematobium prevalence and HIV prevalence across sub-Saharan African countries.

DESIGN

Regression analysis of prevalence of HIV and S. haematobium across sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

Using compiled country-level S. haematobium prevalence, HIV prevalence and other demographic and economic data from published sources, we applied univariate and multivariate regression models to assess the correlations between S. haematobium prevalence and HIV prevalence while controlling for risk factors associated with each infection.

RESULTS

In 43 sub-Saharan African countries, the mean prevalence of S. haematobium was 22.4% [standard deviation (SD): 9.8%] and for HIV was 6.21% (SD: 5.71%). In multivariate analysis, adjusted for prevalence of male circumcision, years since a country's first HIV/AIDS diagnosis, geographical region and immunization coverage, each S. haematobium infection per 100 individuals was associated with a 2.9% (95% CI: 0.2-5.8%) relative increase in HIV prevalence. S. haematobium was not associated with Schistosoma mansoni, HSV-2, hepatitis C, malaria or syphilis.

CONCLUSIONS

Schistosoma haematobium prevalence was associated with HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling S. haematobium may be an effective means of reducing HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

Measuring and modelling concurrency

This article explores three critical topics discussed in the recent debate over concurrency (overlapping sexual partnerships): measurement of the prevalence of concurrency, mathematical modelling of concurrency and HIV epidemic dynamics, and measuring the correlation between HIV and concurrency. The focus of the article is the concurrency hypothesis - the proposition that presumed high prevalence of concurrency explains sub-Saharan Africa's exceptionally high HIV prevalence. Recent surveys using improved questionnaire design show reported concurrency ranging from 0.8% to 7.6% in the region. Even after adjusting for plausible levels of reporting errors, appropriately parameterized sexual network models of HIV epidemics do not generate sustainable epidemic trajectories (avoid epidemic extinction) at levels of concurrency found in recent surveys in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to support the concurrency hypothesis with a statistical correlation between HIV incidence and concurrency prevalence are not yet successful. Two decades of efforts to find evidence in support of the concurrency hypothesis have failed to build a convincing case.