Descriptive epidemiology of school outbreaks of seasonal influenza B during 2012/2013 in the Thames Valley, United Kingdom

Effectiveness of isolation policies in schools: evidence from a mathematical model of influenza and COVID-19

Background

Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions.

Methods

We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions.

Results

For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13–59)%. With 2 days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55–85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to 4 and 3 days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64–88)% and 93 (91–97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5–17)% for a 2-day isolation policy and by 14 (5–26)% for 14 days. A 4-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52–64)%, while a 3-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79–83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks.

Conclusions

Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one.

Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions.

METHODS

We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions.

RESULTS

For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13 - 59)%. With two days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55 - 85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to four and three days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64 - 88)% and 93 (91 - 97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5 - 17)% for a two-day isolation policy and by 14 (5 - 26)% for 14 days. A four-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52 - 64)%, while a three-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79 - 83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one.

Social and Economic Impacts of School Influenza Outbreaks in England: Survey of Caregivers

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a cause of considerable morbidity in England, particularly among children. A total of 39% of all influenza-attributable general practitioner consultations and 37% of all influenza-attributable hospital admissions occur in those aged under 15 years. Few studies have quantified the impact of influenza outbreaks on families. We assessed this impact during 2 influenza seasons.

METHODS

We used questionnaires to obtain data in primary schools that reported an outbreak of an influenza-like-illness (ILI). We sought data on the loss of productivity, costs borne by families and loss in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). ILIs were identified using the symptoms criteria from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the UK Flusurvey.

RESULTS

For each child reporting ILI, mean school absence was 3.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI]): 3.0-4.8) with mean work absence for caregivers reported as 3.7 days (95% CI: 2.7-4.8). The mean loss in HRQoL was 2.1 quality-adjusted life days (95% CI: 1.5-2.7). The estimated total pediatric burden of disease for reported school-based outbreaks during the 2 influenza seasons was 105.3 QALYs (95% CI: 77.7-139.0).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the potential social and economic benefit of vaccination of children during mild influenza seasons.

Epidemiology of influenza B in Australia: 2001-2014 influenza seasons

Background

Influenza B is characterised by two antigenic lineages: B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. These lineages circulate together with influenza A during influenza seasons, with varying incidence from year to year and by geographic region.

Objective

To determine the epidemiology of influenza B relative to influenza A in Australia.

Methods

Laboratory‐confirmed influenza notifications between 2001 and 2014 in Australia were obtained from the Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.

Results

A total of 278 485 laboratory‐confirmed influenza cases were notified during the study period, comprising influenza A (82.2%), B (17.1%) and ‘other and untyped’ (0.7%). The proportion of notifications that were influenza B was highest in five‐ to nine‐year‐olds (27.5%) and lowest in persons aged 85 years and over (11.5%). Of all B notifications with lineage determined, 77.1% were B/Victoria and 22.9% were B/Yamagata infections. Mismatches between the dominant B lineage in a season and the trivalent vaccine B lineage occurred in over one‐third of seasons during the study years. In general, influenza B notifications peaked later than influenza A notifications.

Conclusion

The proportion of circulating influenza B in Australia during 2001‐2014 was slightly lower than the global average and was dominated by B/Victoria. Compared with influenza A, influenza B infection was more common among older children and young adults and less common in the very elderly. Influenza B lineage mismatch with the trivalent vaccine occurred about one‐third of the time.