Enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland: population-based seroprevalence surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic

COVID-19 in Scottish care homes: A metapopulation model of spread among residents and staff

The movement of populations between locations and activities can result in complex transmission dynamics, posing significant challenges in controlling infectious diseases like COVID-19. Notably, networks of care homes create an ecosystem where staff and visitor movement acts as a vector for disease transmission, contributing to the heightened risk for their vulnerable communities. Care homes in the UK were disproportionately affected by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, accounting for almost half of COVID-19 deaths during the period of 6th March - 15th June 2020 and so there is a pressing need to explore modelling approaches suitable for such systems. We develop a generic compartmental Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered - Dead (SEIRD) metapopulation model, with care home residents, care home workers, and the general population modelled as subpopulations, interacting on a network describing their mixing habits. We illustrate the model application by analysing the spread of COVID-19 over the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the NHS Lothian health board, Scotland. We explicitly model the outbreak's reproduction rate and care home visitation level over time for each subpopulation and execute a data fit and sensitivity analysis, focusing on parameters responsible for inter-subpopulation mixing: staff-sharing, staff shift patterns and visitation. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that restricting staff sharing between homes and staff interaction with the general public would significantly mitigate the disease burden. Our findings indicate that protecting care home staff from disease, coupled with reductions in staff-sharing across care homes and expedient cancellations of visitations, can significantly reduce the size of outbreaks in care home settings.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in Northern Ireland during 2020-2021

Background

With the spread of SARS-CoV-2 impacting upon public health directly and socioeconomically, further information was required to inform policy decisions designed to limit virus spread during the pandemic. This study sought to contribute to serosurveillance work within Northern Ireland to track SARS-CoV-2 progression and guide health strategy.

Methods

Sera/plasma samples from clinical biochemistry laboratories were analysed for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Samples were assessed using an Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 or anti-SARS-CoV-2 S ECLIA (Roche) on an automated cobas e 801 analyser. Samples were also assessed via an anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA (Euroimmun). A subset of samples assessed via the Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 ECLIA were subsequently analysed in an ACE2 pseudoneutralisation assay using a V-PLEX SARS-CoV-2 Panel 7 for IgG and ACE2 (Meso Scale Diagnostics).

Results

Across three testing rounds (June-July 2020, November-December 2020 and June-July 2021 (rounds 1-3 respectively)), 4844 residual sera/plasma specimens were assayed for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seropositivity rates increased across the study, peaking at 11.6 % (95 % CI 10.4 %-13.0 %) during round 3. Varying trends in SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity were noted based on demographic factors. For instance, highest rates of seropositivity shifted from older to younger demographics across the study period. In round 3, Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant neutralising antibodies were most frequently detected across age groups, with median concentration of anti-spike protein antibodies elevated in 50-69 year olds and anti-S1 RBD antibodies elevated in 70+ year olds, relative to other age groups.

Conclusions

With seropositivity rates of <15 % across the assessment period, it can be concluded that the significant proportion of the Northern Ireland population had not yet naturally contracted the virus by mid-2021.

Systematic review of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and appraisal of evidence, prior to the widespread introduction of vaccine programmes in the WHO European Region, January-December 2020

OBJECTIVES

Systematic review of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies undertaken in the WHO European Region to measure pre-existing and cumulative seropositivity prior to the roll out of vaccination programmes.

DESIGN

A systematic review of the literature.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the preprint servers MedRxiv and BioRxiv in the WHO 'COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease' database using a predefined search strategy. Articles were supplemented with unpublished WHO-supported Unity-aligned seroprevalence studies and other studies reported directly to WHO Regional Office for Europe and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies published before the widespread implementation of COVID-19 vaccination programmes in January 2021 among the general population and blood donors, at national and regional levels.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

At least two independent researchers extracted the eligible studies; a third researcher resolved any disagreements. Study risk of bias was assessed using a quality scoring system based on sample size, sampling and testing methodologies.

RESULTS

In total, 111 studies from 26 countries published or conducted between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2020 across the WHO European Region were included. A significant heterogeneity in implementation was noted across the studies, with a paucity of studies from the east of the Region. Sixty-four (58%) studies were assessed to be of medium to high risk of bias. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity prior to widespread community circulation was very low. National seroprevalence estimates after circulation started ranged from 0% to 51.3% (median 2.2% (IQR 0.7-5.2%); n=124), while subnational estimates ranged from 0% to 52% (median 5.8% (IQR 2.3%-12%); n=101), with the highest estimates in areas following widespread local transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The low levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibody in most populations prior to the start of vaccine programmes underlines the critical importance of targeted vaccination of priority groups at risk of severe disease, while maintaining reduced levels of transmission to minimise population morbidity and mortality.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Serological Profile of a Brazilian University Population

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 led to the suspension academic activities worldwide, affecting millions of students and staff.

METHODS

In this study, we evaluated the presence of IgM and IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in an academic population during the return to classes after a one-year suspension. The study took place over five months at a Brazilian university and included 942 participants.

RESULTS

We found that most participants had reactive IgG and non-reactive IgM. All received at least one dose, and 940 received two or more doses, of different COVID-19 vaccines. We obtained a higher average of memory antibodies (IgG) in participants who received the CoronaVac/ChAdOx1 combination. IgG was consistently distributed for each vaccine group, but individuals who completed the vaccination schedule had higher levels. There were no differences between antibodies and gender, presence of symptoms, and previous COVID-19 infection, but older participants (>53 years) and contacts of infected individuals had higher IgM levels.

CONCLUSION

This study makes significant contributions to the assessment of antibodies in the academic environment, allowing us to infer that most participants had memory immunity and low indications of recent infection when returning to face-to-face classes, as well as demonstrating the need to monitor immunity and update vaccinations.

Tracking the incidence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection using historical maternal booking serum samples

The early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK are unknown but their investigation is critical to aid future pandemic planning. We tested over 11,000 anonymised, stored historic antenatal serum samples, given at two north-west London NHS trusts in 2019 and 2020, for total antibody to SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (anti-RBD). Estimated prevalence of seroreactivity increased from 1% prior to mid-February 2020 to 17% in September 2020. Our results show higher prevalence of seroreactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in younger, non-white ethnicity, and more deprived groups. We found no significant interaction between the effects of ethnicity and deprivation. Derived from prevalence, the estimated incidence of seroreactivity reflects the trends observed in daily hospitalisations and deaths in London that followed 10 and 13 days later, respectively. We quantified community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in London, which peaked in late March / early April 2020 with no evidence of community transmission until after January 2020. Our study was not able to determine the date of introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but demonstrates the value of stored antenatal serum samples as a resource for serosurveillance during future outbreaks.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on health professionals via Bayesian estimation: a Brazilian case study before and after vaccines

The increasing number of COVID-19 infections brought by the current pandemic has encouraged the scientific community to analyze the seroprevalence in populations to support health policies. In this context, accurate estimations of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies based on antibody tests metrics (e.g., specificity and sensitivity) and the study of population characteristics are essential. Here, we propose a Bayesian analysis using IgA and IgG antibody levels through multiple scenarios regarding data availability from different information sources to estimate the seroprevalence of health professionals in a Northeastern Brazilian city: no data available, data only related to the test performance, data from other regions. The study population comprises 432 subjects with more than 620 collections analyzed via IgA/IgG ELISA tests. We conducted the study in pre- and post-vaccination campaigns started in Brazil. We discuss the importance of aggregating available data from various sources to create informative prior knowledge. Considering prior information from the USA and Europe, the pre-vaccine seroprevalence means are 8.04% and 10.09% for IgG and 7.40% and 9.11% for IgA. For the post-vaccination campaign and considering local informative prior, the median is 84.83% for IgG, which confirms a sharp increase in the seroprevalence after vaccination. Additionally, stratification considering differences in sex, age (younger than 30 years, between 30 and 49 years, and older than 49 years), and presence of comorbidities are provided for all scenarios.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays for use in epidemiological surveillance in Scotland

Background

Sero-surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial to monitoring levels of population exposure and informing public health responses, but may be influenced by variability in performance between available assays.

Methods

Five commercial immunoassays and a neutralising activity assay were used to detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in routine primary care and paediatric samples collected during the first wave of the pandemic in NHS Lothian, Scotland as part of ongoing surveillance efforts. For each assay, sensitivity and specificity was calculated relative to consensus results (majority of immunoassays positive = overall positive) and neutralising activity. Quantitative correlation was performed between serological and neutralising titres.

Results

Seroprevalence ranged from 3.4-7.3 % in primary care patients and 3-5.9 % in paediatric patients according to different immunoassays. Neutralising activity was detectable in 2.8 % and 1.3 % respectively. Relative assay performance changed depending on comparison to immunoassay consensus versus neutralising activity and qualititative versus quantitative agreement. Cross-reactivity with endemic seasonal coronaviruses was confirmed by neutralising assay in false positives for one immunoassay. Presence of false positives for another assay was found specifically in paediatric but not adult samples.

Conclusions

Five serological assays show variable accuracy when applied to the general population, impacting seroprevalence estimates. Assay performance may also vary in detection of protective neutralising antibody levels. These aspects should be considered in assay selection and interpretation in epidemiological studies.

Impact of the Second Epidemic Wave of SARS-CoV-2: Increased Exposure of Young People

We aimed to use serological surveillance based on serial cross-sectional sampling of residual sera obtained from clinical laboratories to compare the differences in age and sex profiles of infected persons in the first and second waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Corsica, France. Residual sera were obtained, including samples from individuals of all ages collected for routine screening or clinical management by clinical laboratories. All the sera collected were tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG using a kit for semi-quantitative detection of IgG antibodies against the S1 domain of the viral spike protein (ELISA-S). Samples that were borderline and positive in ELISA-S were tested with an in-house virus neutralization test. During the second-wave period, we collected between 6 November, 2020 and 12 February, 2021, 4,505 sera from patients aged 0-101 years (60.4% women). The overall weighted seroprevalence of residual sera collected during the second-wave period [8.04% (7.87-9.61)] was significantly higher than the overall weighted seroprevalence estimated at the end of the first wave between 16 April and 15 June, 2020 [5.46% (4.37-7.00)] (p-value = 0.00025). Ninety-eight (30.1%) of the 326 samples tested in the VNT assay had a positive neutralization antibody titer. Estimated seroprevalence increased significantly for men [odds ratio (OR) OR = 1.80 (1.30-2.54); p-value = 0.00026] and for people under 30 years of age [OR = 2.17 (1.46-3.28); p-value = 0.000032]. This increase was observed in young adults aged 20-29 years among whom antibody frequencies were around four-fold higher than those observed at the end of the first wave. In conclusion, our seroprevalence estimates, including the proportion of the participants who had produced neutralizing antibodies, indicate that in February, 2021 the population of Corsica was still far from being protected against SARS-Cov-2 by "herd immunity."

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Neutralizing Antibody Response after the First and Second COVID-19 Pandemic Wave in Croatia

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus with a pandemic spread. So far, a total of 349,910 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 7687 deaths were reported in Croatia. We analyzed the seroprevalence and neutralizing (NT) antibody response in the Croatian general population after the first (May–July 2020) and second (December 2020–February 2021) pandemic wave. Initial serological testing was performed using a commercial ELISA, with confirmation of reactive samples by a virus neutralization test (VNT). A significant difference in the overall seroprevalence rate was found after the first (ELISA 2.2%, VNT 0.2%) and second waves (ELISA 25.1%, VNT 18.7%). Seropositive individuals were detected in all age groups, with significant differences according to age. The lowest prevalence of NT antibodies was documented in the youngest (<10 years; 16.1%) and the oldest (60–69/70+ years; 16.0% and 12.8%, respectively) age groups. However, these age groups showed the highest median NT titers (32–64). In other groups, seropositivity varied from 19.3% to 21.5%. A significant weak positive correlation between binding antibody level as detected by ELISA and VNT titer (rho = 0.439, p < 0.001) was observed. SARS-CoV-2 NT antibody titers seem to be age-related, with the highest NT activity in children under 10 years and individuals above 50 years.

Prevalence of IgG antibodies induced by the SARS-COV-2 virus in asymptomatic adults in Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Population‐based immunoglobulin G (IgG) seroprevalence studies in asymptomatic individuals in Latin America are scarce. The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence and geographic distribution of IgG antibodies induced by natural SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in asymptomatic adults, 5–8 months after the first case was reported in a northeastern state of Mexico. This was a population‐based cross‐sectional study carried out in Nuevo Leon during August–November 2020. Individuals ≥18 years with no previous diagnosis or symptoms suggestive of COVID‐19 were consecutively screened in one of the busiest subway stations. Also, a search for eligible individuals was done from house‐to‐house, after selecting densely populated geographic sectors of each of the municipalities of the metropolitan area (n = 4495). The IgG antibodies to SARS‐CoV‐2 nucleocapsid protein were analyzed. The IgG antibody positivity rate was 27.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 25.8, 28.4); there were no differences by sex or age (p > 0.05). Analysis by month showed a gradual increase from 11.9% (August) to 31.9% (November); Week 39 had the highest positivity rate (42.2%, 95% CI: 34.2, 50.7). Most people did not have evidence of previous SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Preventive measures and promotion of the COVID‐19 vaccine should be strengthened.