Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C

Exploring hydrological controls on dissolved organic carbon export dynamics in a typical flash flood catchment using a process-based model

The dynamics of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from headwater catchments are of critical importance for the global carbon balance and are driven by complex runoff processes. Most previous studies have used statistical relationships between runoff and DOC concentration to estimate DOC export dynamics. Thus, the coupling mechanisms between runoff generation and DOC export dynamics at the process level were obscured in the fitting parameters and have rarely been addressed. In this study, high-frequency (hourly) discharge and DOC export from a typical flash flood experimental headwater catchment with an area of 1.8 km2 were simulated using a process-based model (INCA-C). The results showed that the INCA-C model successfully captured the hourly dynamics of both discharge and DOC concentrations with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.47-0.81 and 0.28-0.70 among moderate events and 0.81-0.85 and 0.19-0.90 among extreme events, respectively. The DOC was exported with distinct concentration dynamics, fluxes, and contributions from the four flow pathways under different storm intensities. At higher intensities, the DOC fluxes were exported by subsurface flows, particularly from shallow organic soil, with greater peaks and shorter time-to-peaks. Exported DOC is primarily sourced from subsurface runoff from the mineral layer (73 %-77 %) during moderate events, whereas it is primarily sourced from subsurface runoff from the organic layer (61 %-79 %) during extreme events. The two contrasting contributions suggest that hydrological pathway controls and DOC dynamic patterns can shift owing to runoff generation influenced by storm intensity. The distinct and variable controls of different flow pathways on DOC export highlight the need to explain the role of hydrology in regulating DOC storm exports through process-based modelling.

Modelling Subarctic watershed dissolved organic carbon response to hydroclimatic regime

Shifts in hydroclimatic regimes associated with global climate change may impact freshwater availability and quality. In high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where vast quantities of carbon are stored terrestrially, explaining landscape-scale carbon (C) budgets and associated pollutant transfer is necessary for understanding the impact of changing hydroclimatic regimes. We used a dynamic modelling approach to simulate streamflow, DOC concentration, and DOC export in a northern Canadian catchment that has undergone notable climate warming, and will continue to for the remainder of this century. The Integrated Catchment model for Carbon (INCA-C) was successfully calibrated to a multi-year period (2012-2016) that represents a range in hydrologic conditions. The model was subsequently run over 30-year periods representing baseline and two future climate scenarios. Average discharge is predicted to decrease under an elevated temperature scenario (22-27 % of baseline) but increase (116-175 % of baseline) under an elevated temperature and precipitation scenario. In the latter scenario the nival hydroclimatic regime is expected to shift to a combined nival and pluvial regime. Average DOC flux over 30 years is predicted to decrease (24-27 % of baseline) under the elevated temperature scenario, as higher DOC concentrations are offset by lower runoff. Under the elevated temperature and precipitation scenario, results suggest an increase in carbon export of 64-81 % above baseline. These increases are attributed to greater connectivity of the catchment. The largest increase in DOC export is expected to occur in early winter. These predicted changes in DOC export, particularly under a climate that is warmer and wetter could be part of larger ecosystem change and warrant additional monitoring efforts in the region.

Occurrence of Arsenic in Nearshore Aquifers Adjacent to Large Inland Lakes

Metal oxides that form near sediment-water interfaces in marine and riverine settings are known to act as a sediment trap for pollutants of environmental concern (e.g., arsenic and mercury). The occurrence of these pollutant traps near sediment-water interfaces in nearshore lake environments is unclear yet important to understand because they may accumulate pollutants that may be later released as environmental conditions change. This study evaluates the prevalence of pollutant sediment traps in nearshore aquifers adjacent to large lakes and the factors that affect the accumulation and release of pollutants, specifically arsenic. Field data from six sites along the Laurentian Great Lakes indicate widespread enrichment of arsenic in nearshore aquifers with arsenic sequestered to iron oxide phases. Arsenic enrichment at all sites (solid-phase arsenic >2 μg/g) suggests that this is a naturally occurring phenomenon. Arsenic was more mobile in reducing aquifers with elevated dissolved arsenic (up to 60 μg/L) observed, where reducing groundwater mixes with infiltrating oxic lake water. Dissolved arsenic was low (<3 μg/L) in all oxic nearshore aquifers studied despite high solid-phase arsenic concentrations. The findings have broad implications for understanding the widespread accumulation of reactive pollutants in nearshore aquifers and factors that affect their release to large lakes.

Climate and landscape conditions indirectly affect fish mercury levels by altering lake water chemistry and fish size

Mercury pollution is a global environmental problem that threatens ecosystems, and negatively impacts human health and well-being. Mercury accumulation in fish within freshwater lakes is a complex process that appears to be driven by factors such as individual fish biology and water chemistry at the lake-scale, whereas, climate, and land-use/land-cover conditions within lake catchments can be influential at relatively larger scales. Nevertheless, unravelling the intricate network of pathways that govern how lake-scale and large-scale factors interact to affect mercury levels in fish remains an important scientific challenge. Using structural equation models (SEMs) and multiple long-term databases we identified direct and indirect effects of lake-scale and larger-scale factors on mercury levels in Walleye and Northern Pike - two species that are valued in inland fisheries. At the lake-level, the most parsimonious path models contained direct effects of fish weight, DOC, and pH, as well as an indirect effect of DOC on fish mercury levels via fish weight. Interestingly, lakeshed-, climate-, and full-path models that combine the effects of both lakeshed and climate revealed indirect effects of surrounding landscape conditions and latitude via DOC, pH, and fish weight but no direct effects on fish mercury levels. These results are generally consistent across species and lakes, except for some differences between stratified and non-stratified lakes. Our findings imply that understanding climate and land-use driven alterations of water chemistry and fish biology will be critical to predicting and mitigating fish mercury bioaccumulation in the future.

Characterization of aquatic organic matter: Assessment, perspectives and research priorities

Organic matter (OM) refers to the largest reactive reservoir of carbon-based compounds on Earth. Aside of its role as a source of carbon, OM is also actively involved in a wide range of ecological functions. It also plays an important role in the solubility, toxicity, bioavailability, mobility and distribution of pollutants. Therefore, OM is a key component in the local and global carbon cycle. About 12,000 articles containing organic matter in the title were published during the past decade, with a continuous increasing number each year (ISI Web of Science). Although this topic was widely explored and its interest has significantly increased, some limitations remain. These limitations can be technical (e.g., pre-treatment processes, low-resolution instrument, data handling) and can be related to the current approach. In this review, we first present the current strategies and tools to characterize the organic matter in the aquatic environment, then we tackle several aspects of current characterization limitations. Finally, we suggest new perspectives and priorities of research to improve the current limitations. From our point of view, simultaneous studies of particulate and dissolved OM fractions should be prioritized and multi-disciplinary approach, creation of databases, controlled experiments and collaborative works should be the next targets for future OM research priorities.

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants.

Effect of climate change on soil temperature in Swedish boreal forests

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.

Almost 50 years of monitoring shows that climate, not forestry, controls long-term organic carbon fluxes in a large boreal watershed

Here, we use a unique long-term data set on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes, its climatic drivers and effects of land management from a large boreal watershed in northern Finland. TOC and runoff have been monitored at several sites in the Simojoki watershed (3160 km(2) ) since the early 1960s. Annual TOC fluxes have increased significantly together with increased inter-annual variability. Acid deposition in the area has been low and has not significantly influenced losses of TOC. Forest management, including ditching and clear felling, had a minor influence on TOC fluxes - seasonal and long-term patterns in TOC were controlled primarily by changes in soil frost, seasonal precipitation, drought, and runoff. Deeper soil frost led to lower spring TOC concentrations in the river. Summer TOC concentrations were positively correlated with precipitation and soil moisture not temperature. There is some indication that drought conditions led to elevated TOC concentrations and fluxes in subsequent years (1998-2000). A sensitivity analysis of the INCA-C model results showed the importance of landscape position, land-use type, and soil temperature as controls of modeled TOC concentrations. Model predictions were not sensitive to forest management. Our results are contradictory to some earlier plot-scale and small catchment studies that have shown more profound forest management impacts on TOC fluxes. This shows the importance of scale when assessing the mechanisms controlling TOC fluxes and concentrations. The results highlight the value of long-term multiple data sets to better understand ecosystem response to land management, climate change and extremes in northern ecosystems.

Uncertainty assessments and hydrological implications of climate change in two adjacent agricultural catchments of a rapidly urbanizing watershed

Lake Simcoe is the most important inland lake in Southern Ontario. The watershed is predominantly agricultural and under increasing pressure from urbanization, leading to changing runoff patterns in rivers draining to the lake. Uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modeling in tributary catchments of the Lake Simcoe Watershed (LSW) can be an order of magnitude larger than pristine watersheds, hampering water quality predictions and export calculations. Here we conduct a robust assessment to constrain the uncertainty in hydrological simulations and projections in the LSW using two representative adjacent agricultural catchments. Downscaled CGCM 3 projections using A1B and A2 emission scenarios projected increases of 4°C in air temperature and a 26% longer growing season. The fraction of precipitation falling as snow will decrease. Spring runoff is an important event in LSW but individual HBV best calibrated parameter sets under-predicted peak flows by up to 32%. Using an ensemble of behavioral parameter sets achieved credible representations of present day hydrology and constrained uncertainties in future projections. Parameter uncertainty analysis showed that the catchments differ in terms of their snow accumulation/melt and groundwater dynamics. Human activities exacerbate the differences in hydrological response. Model parameterization in one catchment could not generate credible hydrological simulations in the other. We cautioned against extrapolating results from monitored to ungauged catchments in managed watersheds like the LSW.

Long-term dynamics of dissolved organic carbon: implications for drinking water supply

Surface waters are the main source of drinking water in many regions. Increasing organic carbon concentrations are a cause for concern in Nordic countries since both dissolved and particulate organic carbon can transport contaminants and adversely affect drinking water treatment processes. We present a long-term study of dynamics of total (particulate and dissolved) organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in the River Fyris. This river supplies drinking water to approximately 200000 people in Uppsala, Sweden. The River Fyris is a main tributary to Lake Mälaren, which supplies drinking water to approximately 2 million people in the greater Stockholm area. Utilities responsible for drinking water supply in both Uppsala and Stockholm have expressed concerns about possible increases in TOC. We evaluate organic carbon dynamics within the Fyris catchment by calculating areal mass exports using observed TOC concentrations and modeled flows and by modeling dissolved organic carbon (as a proxy for TOC) using the dynamic, process based INCA-C model. Exports of TOC from the catchment ranged from 0.8 to 5.8 g m(-2) year(-1) in the period 1995-2010. The variation in annual exports was related to climatic variability which influenced seasonality and amount of runoff. Exports and discharge uncoupled at the end of 2008. A dramatic increase in TOC concentrations was observed in 2009, which gradually declined in 2010-2011. INCA-C successfully reproduced the intra- and inter-annual variation in concentrations during 1996-2008 and 2010-2011 but failed to capture the anomalous increase in 2009. We evaluated a number of hypotheses to explain the anomaly in 2009 TOC values, ultimately none proved satisfactory. We draw two main conclusions: there is at least one unknown or unmeasured process controlling or influencing surface water TOC and INCA-C can be used as part of the decision-making process for current and future use of rivers for drinking water supply.