Putting on a bow-tie to sort out who does what and why in the complex arena of marine policy and management

Innovative and practical tools for monitoring and assessing biodiversity status and impacts of multiple human pressures in marine systems

Human activities at sea can produce pressures and cumulative effects on ecosystem components that need to be monitored and assessed in a cost-effective manner. Five Horizon European projects have joined forces to collaboratively increase our knowledge and skills to monitor and assess the ocean in an innovative way, assisting managers and policy-makers in taking decisions to maintain sustainable activities at sea. Here, we present and discuss the status of some methods revised during a summer school, aiming at better management of coasts and seas. We include novel methods to monitor the coastal and ocean waters (e.g. environmental DNA, drones, imaging and artificial intelligence, climate modelling and spatial planning) and innovative tools to assess the status (e.g. cumulative impacts assessment, multiple pressures, Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool (NEAT), ecosystem services assessment or a new unifying approach). As a concluding remark, some of the most important challenges ahead are assessing the pros and cons of novel methods, comparing them with benchmark technologies and integrating these into long-standing time series for data continuity. This requires transition periods and careful planning, which can be covered through an intense collaboration of current and future European projects on marine biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Advances in the integration of microalgal communities for biomonitoring of metal pollution in aquatic ecosystems of sub-Saharan Africa

This review elucidated the recent advances in integrating microalgal communities in monitoring metal pollution in aquatic ecosystems of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It also highlighted the potential of incorporating microalgae as bioindicators in emerging technologies, identified research gaps, and suggested directions for further research in biomonitoring of metal pollution. Reputable online scholarly databases were used to identify research articles published between January 2000 and June 2023 for synthesis. Results indicated that microalgae were integrated either individually or combined with other bioindicators, mainly macroinvertebrates, macrophytes, and fish, alongside physicochemical monitoring. There was a significantly low level of integration (< 1%) of microalgae for biomonitoring aquatic metal pollution in SSA compared to other geographical regions. Microalgal communities were employed to assess compliance (76%), in diagnosis (38%), and as early-warning systems (38%) of aquatic ecological health status. About 14% of biomonitoring studies integrated microalgal eDNA, while other technologies, such as remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and biosensors, are yet to be significantly incorporated. Nevertheless, there is potential for the aforementioned emerging technologies for monitoring aquatic metal pollution in SSA. Future monitoring in the region should also consider the standardisation and synchronisation of integrative biomonitoring and embrace the "Citizen Science" concept at national and regional scales.

Risk, regulation and offshore windfarms: Ways to manage environmental uncertainty and over-precaution

Globally there are concerns over a warming climate and the UK has declared a climate and ecological emergency and has an ambitious programme for the growth of offshore windfarms to contribute to commitments to achieving a legally binding Net Zero for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Offshore windfarm consenting is comparatively mature in the UK but evidence gaps to inform impact assessment and uncertainty to inform decision making has led to a precautionary approach that slows the speed of consent decisions. This paper examines the approach to UK offshore windfarm consenting, reviews the precautionary but risk-based approach that environmental decision makers have adopted in light of evidence gaps, and summarises how the collection of empirical data and reviews of evidence collected from operational windfarms has improved scientific knowledge and focussed decision making. A summary is also provided of the enduring legislative safeguards that apply during the lifetime of any consent and recommendations are made on the risk appetite that advisers and decision makers should adopt in view of policy that seeks to accelerate sectoral growth whilst enhancing nature recovery.

Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Offshore decommissioning horizon scan: Research priorities to support decision-making activities for oil and gas infrastructure

Thousands of oil and gas structures have been installed in the world's oceans over the past 70 years to meet the population's reliance on hydrocarbons. Over the last decade, there has been increased concern over how to handle decommissioning of this infrastructure when it reaches the end of its operational life. Complete or partial removal may or may not present the best option when considering potential impacts on the environment, society, technical feasibility, economy, and future asset liability. Re-purposing of offshore structures may also be a valid legal option under international maritime law where robust evidence exists to support this option. Given the complex nature of decommissioning offshore infrastructure, a global horizon scan was undertaken, eliciting input from an interdisciplinary cohort of 35 global experts to develop the top ten priority research needs to further inform decommissioning decisions and advance our understanding of their potential impacts. The highest research priorities included: (1) an assessment of impacts of contaminants and their acceptable environmental limits to reduce potential for ecological harm; (2) defining risk and acceptability thresholds in policy/governance; (3) characterising liability issues of ongoing costs and responsibility; and (4) quantification of impacts to ecosystem services. The remaining top ten priorities included: (5) quantifying ecological connectivity; (6) assessing marine life productivity; (7) determining feasibility of infrastructure re-use; (8) identification of stakeholder views and values; (9) quantification of greenhouse gas emissions; and (10) developing a transdisciplinary decommissioning decision-making process. Addressing these priorities will help inform policy development and governance frameworks to provide industry and stakeholders with a clearer path forward for offshore decommissioning. The principles and framework developed in this paper are equally applicable for informing responsible decommissioning of offshore renewable energy infrastructure, in particular wind turbines, a field that is accelerating rapidly.

Introducing a temporal DPSIR (tDPSIR) framework and its application to marine pollution by PET bottles

Environmental governance is highly sensitive to temporal dynamics, due to the ever-accelerating rate of technological changes, the cumulative nature of environmental impacts and the complexity of multi-level environmental policy processes. Yet, temporality is generally only implicitly included in frameworks used for describing or assessing policy response in the broad context of social-ecological systems, such as the widely used Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework. As a result, the application of such frameworks often does not give due attention to questions of temporality, with potential negative impacts on attaining environmental goals. The current work proposes to modify the DPSIR framework to explicitly incorporate temporal aspects. We suggest two extensions of the common framework to account for time lags and allow for early response through a "response shift-left" mechanism. The potential of the modified framework-temporal DPSIR (tDPSIR)-to shed light on these temporal aspects is demonstrated through analysis of the European Union's response to pollution of the marine environment by plastic bottle waste. The analysis emphasizes the pronounced time lags between the initiation of this anthropogenic pressure and effective governance capable of curbing emissions. We discuss how tDPSIR can be applied to a range of environmental issues to populate databases of time lags in environmental governance, which, in turn, can be analysed for systemic patterns and chains of causality.

Trace element bioaccumulation in edible red seaweeds (Rhodophyta): A risk assessment for consumers

As a precursor to risk assessment and risk management through consuming contaminated seafood, food safety needs to be quantified and assured. Seaweed is an increasing dietary component, especially in developing countries, but there are few studies assessing uptake rates of contaminants from this route. As such, the present study determined likely human uptake due to the trace elemental (Fe, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Se, Hg, and As) concentrations in the edible red seaweeds (Rhodophyta) Gelidium pusillum and Hypnea musciformis, growing in the industrialised Cox's Bazar coastal area of Bangladesh. Metal and metalloid concentrations in G. pusillum were in the order (mg/kg): Fe (797 ± 67) > Mn (69 ± 4) > Ni (12 ± 5) > Zn (9 ± 4) > Cu (9 ± 4) >Se (0.1 ± 0.1) > Hg (0.1 ± 0.01), and in H. musciformis: Fe (668 ± 58) > Mn (28 ± 5) > Ni (14 ± 2) > Zn (11 ± 5) > Cu (6 ± 4) >Se (0.2 ± 0.03) > Hg (0.04 ± 0.01). Despite the industrial activities in the area, and based on 10 g. day^-1 seaweed consumption, it is concluded that these concentrations pose no risk to human health as part of a normal diet according to the targeted hazard quotient and hazard index (THQ and HI) (values < 1). In addition, and as a novel aspect for seaweeds, Selenium Health Benefit Values (Se-HBV) were determined and found to have positive values. Seaweed can be used as an absorber of inorganic metals for removing contamination in coastal waters. The results are a precursor to further research regarding the efficiency and rate at which seaweeds can sequester metal contamination in water. In addition, management techniques need to be developed thereby to control the contaminant inputs.

Managing beyond ecosystem limits at the land-sea interface: The case of sandy beaches

Sandy beaches are part of an integral social-ecological system whose management has to encompass the natural and societal features of the catchment and the adjacent marine area, as well as the beach itself. Using a multi-use and complex beach system in Uruguay, the La Coronilla and Barra del Chuy resort, we interrogate those natural and societal features by employing the DAPSI(W)R(M) cause-consequence-response cycle and pathways. This identifies the Drivers, Activities, Pressures, State change on the natural system, Impacts (on the Welfare of the human system), and the Responses (requiring management Measures). We contend that this approach is needed for the sustainable development and use of this ecosystem and its biodiversity protection. This also indicates the importance of a holistic and systems approach, which is necessary, valid and valuable for sandy beaches worldwide.

Harmonizing science and management options to reduce risks of cyanobacteria

Management of cyanobacteria has become an increasingly complex venture. Cyanobacteria risks have amplified as society moves forward in an era of accelerated global changes. The cyanobacteria management "pendulum" has progressively shifted from prevention to mitigation, with management considerations often put forth after bloom formation. A universal system (i.e., one-size-fits-all management) fails to provide a management path forward due to the inherent complexities of each lake. A tailored management plan is needed: the right species at the right time in the right place (i.e., the three Rs). The three Rs represent a customizable management strategy that is flexible and informed by advances in scientific understanding to lower cyanobacteria-associated risks. Identifying thresholds in risk tolerance, where thresholds are defined by community collectives, is essential to frame cyanobacteria management targets and to decide on what management interventions are warranted.

A new protocol for monitoring operational outcomes of environmental management in commercial forestry plantations

Environmental degradation is a global phenomenon with a high likelihood of influencing human quality of life. Effective management responses are needed to achieve societal goals of sustainability. We develop here a new monitoring protocol (Management Check: MATCH) that comprehensively evaluates management outcomes at the operational level. Using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, we identified pressures influencing ecosystem integrity inside conservation corridors and commercial compartments of a timber production landscape mosaic. They were 1) domestic livestock grazing (the only exogenous pressure), 2) fire management, 3) invasive alien plants (IAPs), and potential soil erosion from two sources: 4) roads, and 5) harvested timber compartments. We assessed the effects of these on wetland and stream buffers. Environmental incidents accounted for more serious management issues (e.g. oil spills). Management responses were systematically unpacked into point-form questions, which formed the building blocks of our monitoring protocol. We assessed management in twelve plantations in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Answers were compared with Best Operational Practice (BOP), and reworked into a Weighted Index of Compliance (WIC) per section. We found that there was poor management of livestock grazing, but good management of IAPs, roads, and timber compartments. Management of wetland and stream buffers was very good. Fire management presented problems linked to lack of direct effects, measurable at the spatial and temporal scales of operations. We discuss operational outcomes within their respective legislative frameworks, and suggest ways of improving management operations, where needed. MATCH is the first monitoring protocol to comprehensively assess environmental management of commercial forestry at the operational level, and to clearly translate operational activities into measurable progress towards strategic goals. In doing so, MATCH breaks down silos and builds bridges for efficient environmental management in dynamic socio-ecological systems. Moreover, the principles developed here can be applied to build tools that help manage major risks in other economic sectors too. Overall, MATCH strengthened strategic and informed action, which is necessary at multiple levels of an organization, to combat major societal risks, such as environmental degradation.

Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment

Ecosystem-based management requires an assessment of the cumulative effects of human pressures and environmental change. The operationalization and integration of cumulative effects assessments (CEA) into decision-making processes often lacks a comprehensive and transparent framework. A risk-based CEA framework that divides a CEA in risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation, could structure such complex analyses and facilitate the establishment of direct science-policy links. Here, we examine carefully the operationalization of such a risk-based CEA framework with the help of eleven contrasting case studies located in Europe, French Polynesia, and Canada. We show that the CEA framework used at local, sub-regional, and regional scales allowed for a consistent, coherent, and transparent comparison of complex assessments. From our analysis, we pinpoint four emerging issues that, if accurately addressed, can improve the take up of CEA outcomes by management: 1) framing of the CEA context and defining risk criteria; 2) describing the roles of scientists and decision-makers; 3) reducing and structuring complexity; and 4) communicating uncertainty. Moreover, with a set of customized tools we describe and analyze for each case study the nature and location of uncertainty as well as trade-offs regarding available knowledge and data used for the CEA. Ultimately, these tools aid decision-makers to recognize potential caveats and repercussions of management decisions. One key recommendation is to differentiate CEA processes and their context in relation to governance advice, marine spatial planning or regulatory advice. We conclude that future research needs to evaluate how effective management measures are in reducing the risk of cumulative effects. Changing governance structures takes time and is often difficult, but we postulate that well-framed and structured CEA can function as a strategic tool to integrate ecosystem considerations across multiple sectorial policies.

Activity-footprints, pressures-footprints and effects-footprints - Walking the pathway to determining and managing human impacts in the sea

Determining the overall effects of human activities on the estuaries, seas and coasts, as a precursor to marine management, requires quantifying three aspects. These are: (a) the area in which the human activities take place, (b) the area covered by the pressures generated by the activities on the prevailing habitats and species, in which pressures are defined as the mechanisms of change, and (c) the area over which any adverse effects occur. These features can be respectively termed the activities-footprints, the pressures-footprints and the effects-footprints. The latter in turn incorporates both the effects on the natural system and the effects on ecosystem services from which society extracts goods and benefits. This viewpoint article explains the rationale behind this typology and proposes definitions for each of these three types of footprints.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to tipping points: A review of empirical approaches and their use for marine management

Sustainability in the provision of ecosystem services requires understanding of the vulnerability of social-ecological systems (SES) to tipping points (TPs). Assessing SES vulnerability to abrupt ecosystem state changes remains challenging, however, because frameworks do not operationally link ecological, socio-economic and cultural elements of the SES. We conducted a targeted literature review on empirical assessments of SES and TPs in the marine realm and their use in ecosystem-based management. Our results revealed a plurality of terminologies, definitions and concepts that hampers practical operationalisation of these concepts. Furthermore, we found a striking lack of socio-cultural aspects in SES vulnerability assessments, possibly because of a lack of involvement of stakeholders and interest groups. We propose guiding principles for assessing vulnerability to TPs that build on participative approaches and prioritise the connectivity between SES components by accounting for component linkages, cascading effects and feedback processes.

Bowtie Methodology for Risk Analysis of Visual Borescope Inspection during Aircraft Engine Maintenance

Background—The inspection of aircraft parts is critical, as a defective part has many potentially adverse consequences. Faulty parts can initiate a system failure on an aircraft, which can lead to aircraft mishap if not well managed and has the potential to cause fatalities and serious injuries of passengers and crew. Hence, there is value in better understanding the risks in visual inspection during aircraft maintenance. Purpose—This paper identifies the risks inherent in visual inspection tasks during aircraft engine maintenance and how it differs from aircraft operations. Method—A Bowtie analysis was performed, and potential hazards, threats, consequences, and barriers were identified based on semi-structured interviews with industry experts and researchers’ insights gained by observation of the inspection activities. Findings—The Bowtie diagram for visual inspection in engine maintenance identifies new consequences in the maintenance context. It provides a new understanding of the importance of certain controls in the workflow. Originality—This work adapts the Bowtie analysis to provide a risk assessment of the borescope inspection activity on aircraft maintenance tasks, which was otherwise not shown in the literature. The consequences for maintenance are also different compared to flight operations, in the way operational economics are included.

Risk to the supply of ecosystem services across aquatic ecosystems

The capacity of ecosystems to supply ecosystem services is decreasing. Sustaining this supply requires an understanding of the links between the impacts of pressures introduced by human activities and how this can lead to changes in the supply of services. Here, we apply a novel approach, assessing 'risk to ecosystem service supply' (RESS), across a range of aquatic ecosystems in seven case studies. We link aggregate impact risk from human activities on ecosystem components, with a relative score of their potential to supply services. The greatest RESS is found where an ecosystem component with a high potential to supply services is subject to high impact risk. In this context, we explore variability in RESS across 99 types of aquatic ecosystem component from 11 realms, ranging from oceanic to wetlands. We explore some causes of variability in the RESS observed, including assessment area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population density. We found that Lakes, Rivers, Inlets and Coastal realms had some of the highest RESS, though this was highly dependent on location. We found a positive relationship between impact risk and service supply potential, indicating the ecosystem components we rely on most for services, are also those most at risk. However, variability in this relationship indicates that protecting the supply of ecosystem services alone will not protect all parts of the ecosystem at high risk. Broad socio-economic factors explained some of the variability found in RESS. For example, RESS was positively associated with GDP and artificial and agricultural land use in most realms, highlighting the need to achieve balance between increasing GDP and sustaining ecosystem health and human wellbeing more broadly. This approach can be used for sustainable management of ecosystem service use, to highlight the ecosystem components most critical to supplying services, and those most at risk.

Implementing Sustainably Managed Fisheries Using Ecological Risk Assessment and Bowtie Analysis

Determining the effectiveness of a management system to enable fisheries to harvest sustainably is a key challenge. To fully assess the likelihood that a fishery management system will not achieve its sustainability objectives, the assessment needs to include the whole pathway that leads to the consequences for management objectives. A crucial aspect of the pathway is the inclusion of management controls. Effectiveness of these management controls determines whether the effects of human pressures on ecological components and their impacts are reduced to a level that will not impede management achieving their objectives. Ecological risk assessments do not provide sufficient information to make decisions about what to change specifically in a management system to ensure a fishery is sustainably managed. Bowtie analysis (BTA) is a method that logically connects the relationships between management objectives, management controls, threats, potential impacts of threats on the fishery resource and the consequences of those impacts on achieving the management objectives. The combination of bowtie analysis and ecological risk assessment enables managers, scientists and stakeholders to evaluate different management controls and research options in response to risk factors and track the effectiveness of the management system. We applied a three-step method of bowtie analysis stage 1, quantitative ecological risk assessment and bowtie analysis stage 2 to evaluate fisheries management and science. We demonstrate these steps using a case study of a commercially fished species in New South Wales, Australia.