Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Evaluation of marine spatial planning requires fit for purpose monitoring strategies

Marine spatial planning (MSP) has rapidly become the most widely used integrated, place-based management approach in the marine environment. Monitoring and evaluation of MSP is key to inform best practices, adaptive management and plan iteration. While standardised evaluation frameworks cannot be readily applied, accounting for evaluation essentials such as the definition of evaluation objectives, indicators and stakeholder engagement of stakeholders is a prerequisite for meaningful evaluation outcomes. By way of a literature review and eleven practical MSP case studies, we analysed present day trends in evaluation approaches and unravelled the adoption of evaluation essentials for three categories for monitoring and evaluation for plan making, plan outcomes, and policy implementation. We found that at a global scale the focus of MSP evaluation has shifted over the past decade from evaluating predominantly plan outcomes towards the evaluation of plan making. Independent of the scope of the evaluation, evaluation approaches varied greatly from formal and structured processes, building for instance on MSP goals and objectives, to informal processes based on stakeholder interviews. We noted a trend in the adoption of formalised approaches where MSP evaluations have increasingly become linked to MSP policy goals and objectives. However, the enhanced use of MSP objectives and indicators did not result in a more straightforward reporting of outcomes, e.g. such as the achievement of specific MSP objectives. Overall, we found weak linkages between defined MSP objectives, indicators and available monitoring data. While the apparent shift towards a focus on objectives is promising, we highlight the need of fit-for-purpose monitoring data to enable effective evaluation of those objectives. Hence, effective MSP and adaptive management processes require customised and concurrent monitoring and evaluation strategies and procedures. We argue that evaluation processes would also benefit from a better understanding of the general environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural effects of MSP. Therefore, to understand better environmental effects of MSP, we praise that forthcoming MSP processes need to deepen the understanding and considerations of cause-effect pathways between human activities and changes of ecosystem state through the adoption of targeted cumulative effects assessments.

Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment

Ecosystem-based management requires an assessment of the cumulative effects of human pressures and environmental change. The operationalization and integration of cumulative effects assessments (CEA) into decision-making processes often lacks a comprehensive and transparent framework. A risk-based CEA framework that divides a CEA in risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation, could structure such complex analyses and facilitate the establishment of direct science-policy links. Here, we examine carefully the operationalization of such a risk-based CEA framework with the help of eleven contrasting case studies located in Europe, French Polynesia, and Canada. We show that the CEA framework used at local, sub-regional, and regional scales allowed for a consistent, coherent, and transparent comparison of complex assessments. From our analysis, we pinpoint four emerging issues that, if accurately addressed, can improve the take up of CEA outcomes by management: 1) framing of the CEA context and defining risk criteria; 2) describing the roles of scientists and decision-makers; 3) reducing and structuring complexity; and 4) communicating uncertainty. Moreover, with a set of customized tools we describe and analyze for each case study the nature and location of uncertainty as well as trade-offs regarding available knowledge and data used for the CEA. Ultimately, these tools aid decision-makers to recognize potential caveats and repercussions of management decisions. One key recommendation is to differentiate CEA processes and their context in relation to governance advice, marine spatial planning or regulatory advice. We conclude that future research needs to evaluate how effective management measures are in reducing the risk of cumulative effects. Changing governance structures takes time and is often difficult, but we postulate that well-framed and structured CEA can function as a strategic tool to integrate ecosystem considerations across multiple sectorial policies.

Activity-footprints, pressures-footprints and effects-footprints - Walking the pathway to determining and managing human impacts in the sea

Determining the overall effects of human activities on the estuaries, seas and coasts, as a precursor to marine management, requires quantifying three aspects. These are: (a) the area in which the human activities take place, (b) the area covered by the pressures generated by the activities on the prevailing habitats and species, in which pressures are defined as the mechanisms of change, and (c) the area over which any adverse effects occur. These features can be respectively termed the activities-footprints, the pressures-footprints and the effects-footprints. The latter in turn incorporates both the effects on the natural system and the effects on ecosystem services from which society extracts goods and benefits. This viewpoint article explains the rationale behind this typology and proposes definitions for each of these three types of footprints.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to tipping points: A review of empirical approaches and their use for marine management

Sustainability in the provision of ecosystem services requires understanding of the vulnerability of social-ecological systems (SES) to tipping points (TPs). Assessing SES vulnerability to abrupt ecosystem state changes remains challenging, however, because frameworks do not operationally link ecological, socio-economic and cultural elements of the SES. We conducted a targeted literature review on empirical assessments of SES and TPs in the marine realm and their use in ecosystem-based management. Our results revealed a plurality of terminologies, definitions and concepts that hampers practical operationalisation of these concepts. Furthermore, we found a striking lack of socio-cultural aspects in SES vulnerability assessments, possibly because of a lack of involvement of stakeholders and interest groups. We propose guiding principles for assessing vulnerability to TPs that build on participative approaches and prioritise the connectivity between SES components by accounting for component linkages, cascading effects and feedback processes.

Putting on a bow-tie to sort out who does what and why in the complex arena of marine policy and management

Marine policy and management has to cope with a plethora of human activities that cause pressures leading to changes to the natural and human systems. Accordingly, it requires many policy and management responses to address traditional, cultural, social, ecological, technical, and economic policy objectives. Because of this, we advocate that a fully-structured approach using the IEC/ISO 31010 Bow-tie analysis will allow all elements to be integrated for a cost-effective system. This industry-standard system, described here with examples for the marine environment, will fulfil many of the demands by the users and uses of the marine system and the regulators of those users and uses. It allows for bridging several aspects: the management and environmental sciences, the management complexity and governance demands, the natural and social sciences and socio-economics and outcomes. Most importantly, the use of the Bow-tie approach bridges systems analysis and ecosystem complexity. At a time when scientific decisions in policy making and implementation are under question, we conclude that it provides a rigorous, transparent and defendable system of decision-making.

The science-policy interface of risk-based freshwater and marine management systems: From concepts to practical tools

Maintaining the current state of ecosystem services from freshwater and marine ecosystems around the world is at risk. Cumulative effects of multiple human pressures on ecosystem components and functions are indicative of residual pressures that "fall through" the cracks of current industry sector management practices. Without an understanding of the level of residual pressures generated by these measures, we are unlikely to reconcile the root causes of ecosystem effects to improve these management practices to reduce their residual pressures. In this paper, we present a new modelling framework that combines a qualitative and quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of the measures used in the daily operations of industry sectors to predict their residual pressure that is delivered to the ecosystem. The predicted residual pressure can subsequently be used as an input variable for ecosystem models. We combine the Bow-tie analysis of the measures with a Bayesian belief network to quantify the effectiveness of the measures and predict the residual pressures.

SMART marine goals, targets and management - Is SDG 14 operational or aspirational, is 'Life Below Water' sinking or swimming?

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), adopted in September 2015, are accompanied by targets which have to be met individually and collectively by the signatory states. SDG14 Life Below Water aims to lay the foundation for the integrated and sustainable management of the oceans. However, any environmental management has to be based around targets which are SMART - specific, measurable, achievable, realistic and time bounded - otherwise it is not possible to determine whether management actions are successful and achieve the desired aims. The discussion here shows that many of the targets adopted for SDG14, and especially a detailed analysis of Target 1, are aspirational rather than fully quantified. In order to move towards making the targets operational, we advocate merging the language of environmental management with that used by industry for linking risks to the environment, management performance and ensuing controls. By adopting an approach which uses Key Performance Indicators ('KPIs'), Key Risk Indicators ('KRIs') and Key Control Indicators ('KCIs'), we advocate that a degree of rigour leading to defendable actions can be brought to marine management.

"And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!" - A unifying framework for marine environmental management

The marine environment is a complex system formed by interactions between ecological structure and functioning, physico-chemical processes and socio-economic systems. An increase in competing marine uses and users requires a holistic approach to marine management which considers the environmental, economic and societal impacts of all activities. If managed sustainably, the marine environment will deliver a range of ecosystem services which lead to benefits for society. In order to understand the complexity of the system, the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) approach has long been a valuable problem-structuring framework used to assess the causes, consequences and responses to change in a holistic way. Despite DPSIR being used for a long time, there is still confusion over the definition of its terms and so to be appropriate for current marine management, we contend that this confusion needs to be addressed. Our viewpoint advocates that DPSIR should be extended to DAPSI(W)R(M) (pronounced dap-see-worm) in which Drivers of basic human needs require Activities which lead to Pressures. The Pressures are the mechanisms of State change on the natural system which then leads to Impacts (on human Welfare). Those then require Responses (as Measures). Furthermore, because of the complexity of any managed sea area in terms of multiple Activities, there is the need for a linked-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework, and then the connectivity between marine ecosystems and ecosystems in the catchment and further at sea, requires an interlinked, nested-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework to reflect the continuum between adjacent ecosystems. Finally, the unifying framework for integrated marine management is completed by encompassing ecosystem structure and functioning, ecosystem services and societal benefits. Hence, DAPSI(W)R(M) links the socio-ecological system of the effects of changes to the natural system on the human uses and benefits of the marine system. However, to deliver these sustainably in the light of human activities requires a Risk Assessment and Risk Management framework; the ISO-compliant Bow-Tie method is used here as an example. Finally, to secure ecosystem health and economic benefits such as Blue Growth, successful, adaptive and sustainable marine management Responses (as Measures) are delivered using the 10-tenets, a set of facets covering all management disciplines and approaches.

A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ

An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools.

Phase-shifting effects of dusklike and dawnlike light pulses on the circadian activity rhythms of Syrian hamsters

This study tested whether light pulses with a dusklike offset or a dawnlike onset caused phase shifts of different sizes in the circadian wheel-running activity of Syrian hamsters, Mesocricetus auratus. Six experiments were conducted, each with 30 hamsters; the hamsters received first one type of pulse and then the other type a few weeks later, allowing a paired comparison. The six experiments represented the combination of two maximum light intensities (150 and 250 lux) and three zeitgeber times (ZTs) at which the pulses were given (ZT13.5, ZT14.5, and ZT20). Pulses were 30 minutes long, a relatively short duration to minimize circadian time effects. Aschoff's type II method of measuring phase shifts was used. In none of the six experiments did a two-tailed paired t test detect a significant difference in the size of phase shifts caused by dusklike versus dawnlike pulses. A three-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) on the combined data from all six experiments (with pulse type, pulse intensity, and ZT as factors) also failed to detect a significant effect of pulse type. Statistical power was calculated and found to be reasonably good. These negative results are in line with those of a previous study in which a different methodology was used.

Slow death of postnatal hippocampal neurons by GABA(A) receptor overactivation

Neurotransmitters can have both toxic and trophic functions in addition to their role in neural signaling. Surprisingly, chronic blockade of GABA(A) receptor activity for 5-8 d in vitro enhanced survival of hippocampal neurons, suggesting that GABA(A) receptor overactivation may be neurotoxic. Potentiating GABA(A) receptor activity by chronic treatment with the endogenous neurosteroid (3alpha,5alpha)-3-hydroxypregnan-20-one caused massive cell loss over 1 week in culture. Other potentiators of GABA(A) receptors, including benzodiazepines, mimicked the cell loss, suggesting that potentiating endogenous GABA activity is sufficient to produce neuronal death. Neurosteroid-treated neurons had lower resting intracellular calcium levels than control cells and produced smaller calcium rises in response to depolarizing challenges. Manipulating intracellular calcium levels with chronic elevated extracellular potassium or with the calcium channel agonist Bay K 8644 protected neurons. The results may have implications for the mechanisms of programmed cell death in the developing CNS as well as implications for the long-term consequences of chronic GABAmimetic drug use during development.

Radar detection of the nucleus and coma of comet hyakutake

Radar observations of comet Hyakutake (C/1996 B2) made at the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in California have detected echoes from the nucleus and from large grains in the inner coma. The nucleus of this bright comet was estimated to be only 2 to 3 kilometers in diameter. Models of the coma echo indicate backscatter from porous, centimeter-size grains ejected anisotropically at velocities of tens of meters per second. The radar observations suggest that a comet's activity may be a poor indicator of its size and provide evidence that large grains constitute an important component of the mass loss from a typical active comet.

The coronal forehead lift--modifications and results

The coronal forehead lift has produced excellent results in the rejuvenation of the upper face. The problem of brow and glabellar ptosis, as well as the problem of frontoglabellar rhytids, are directly addressed with this procedure while producing no visible scars. In addition, the pretrichial modification of it can be used without alteration in the hairline. The success and low morbidity of the coronal forehead lift has made it the procedure of choice for upper facial rejuvenation in females, and many male patients. A review of 41 coronal forehead lifts performed by the senior author is presented, with emphasis placed on the results and the refinements brought to the surgical technique. A discussion comparing this procedure to other brow lift procedures is also presented, outlining their respective advantages and disadvantages.

Assessment of the guinea pig's middle ear cell-mediated response using the mixed lymphocyte response (MLR)

The mixed lymphocyte response (MLR) of the guinea pig was assessed using skin allografts placed in the tympanic cavity, in comparison to the MLR obtained with allografts sutured on the backs of these animals. The MLR obtained from middle ear stimulation was transient. It was not altered by previous systemic immunization, nor did it alter the subsequent MLR obtained when the allografts were implanted on the backs of the guinea pigs. Immunoperoxidase and hematoxylin/eosin stainings of the tympanic allografts were also attempted to make a pathological correlation. Our findings are compatible with other observations of mucosal immune systems.

The cell-mediated response of the guinea pig's middle ear

In this project, we studied the cell-mediated response of guinea pig's middle ear. The specific objective was to characterize rejection of skin grafts on the back (allo- and iso-grafts) after primary stimulation (iso- or allo-) in the ear or on the back. The method used was the mixed lymphocyte response with and without phytohemagglutinin (PHA). Preliminary results showed that the middle ear is able to mount a normal immune response, both locally and systemically. Such basic studies will help us to understand the otologic immune response as a whole and may shed some light on the immune phenomena observed in middle ear transplantations.

Nosocomial gram-negative parotitis

Nosocomial parotitis is an uncommon postoperative complication, usually affecting elderly, debilitated, dehydrated patients. The preponderance of gram-positive pathogens has been emphasized. The authors present two cases of gram-negative parotitis and review the literature on this condition. Because the organisms producing nosocomial infection in patients receiving intensive care are commonly gram-negative bacilli, treatment should be based on the findings of Gram's staining of the pus obtained from Stensen's duct, altered when necessary by the final culture results.