Evaluating and comparing remote sensing terrestrial GPP models for their response to climate variability and CO2 trends

Trigger thresholds and their dynamics of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions

Many evidences have shown that both atmospheric and soil droughts can constrain vegetation growth and further threaten its ability to sequester carbon. However, the trigger thresholds of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions are still unknown. In this study, we proposed a Copula and Bayesian equations-based framework to investigate trigger thresholds of various vegetation production losses under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions. The trigger thresholds dynamics and their possible causes were also investigated. To achieve this goal, we first simulated the gross primary production, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit over China during 1961-2018 using an individual-based, spatially explicit dynamic global vegetation model. The main drivers of the dynamic change in trigger thresholds were then explored by Random Forest model. We found that soil drought caused greater stress on gross primary production loss than atmospheric drought, with a larger impact area and higher probability of damage. In terms of spatial distribution, the risk probability of gross primary production loss was higher in eastern China than in western China, and the drought trigger threshold was also smaller in eastern China. In addition, the trigger thresholds for atmospheric and soil drought in most regions exhibited a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2018, while the CO2 fertilization enhanced the drought tolerance of vegetation. The reduction in CO2 fertilization effect slowed down the downward trend of trigger threshold for soil drought, while the increase in temperature exacerbated the downward trend of trigger threshold for atmospheric drought. This study highlighted the larger effect of soil drought on vegetation production loss than atmospheric drought and implied that climate change can modulate the trigger threshold of vegetation production losses under drought conditions. These findings provide scientific guidance for managing the increasing risk of drought on vegetation and optimizing watershed water allocation.

Mutual inhibition effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP

The impact of CO2 fertilization on enhancing global forest gross primary productivity (GPP) is acknowledged, but its interaction with climate factors-air temperature (Tem), precipitation (Pre), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation (Rad)-remains unclear. In this study, global forest GPP trends from 1982 to 2018 were examined using BEPS, NIRv, FLUXCOM, and revised EC-LUE datasets, with interannual trends of 5.618 (p < 0.01), 5.831 (p < 0.01), 0.227, and 6.566 g C m-2 yr-1 (p < 0.01), respectively. Elevated CO2 was identified as the primary driver of GPP trends, with the dominant area ranging from 51.11% to 90.37% across different GPP datasets. In the NIRv and revised EC-LUE datasets, the positive impact of CO2 on GPP showed a decrease of 0.222 g C m-2 yr-1, while the negative impact of Rad increased by 0.007 g C m-2 yr-1. An inhibitory relationship was found between the actual effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on GPP in most forest types. At lower latitudes, Tem primarily constrained CO2 fertilization, while at higher latitudes, VPD emerged as the key limiting factor. This was mainly attributed to the potential trade-off or competition between elevated CO2 and climate change in influencing GPP, with strategic resource allocation varying across different forest ecosystems. This study highlights the significant inhibitory effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP, providing insights into the dynamic responses of forest ecosystems to changing environments.

CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia

The Dryland East Asia (DEA) is one of the largest inland arid regions, and vegetation is very sensitive to climate change. The complex environment in DEA with defects of modeling construction make it difficult to simulate and predict changes in vegetation structure and productivity. Here, we use the emergent constraint (EC) method to constrain the future interannual leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) trends in DEA, under four scenarios of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model ensemble. LAI and GPP increase in all scenarios in the near term (2015-2050), with continued growth in SSP370 and SSP585 and stasis in SSP126 and SSP245 in the far term (2051-2100). However, after building effective EC relationships, the constrained increasing trends of LAI (GPP) are reduced by 43.5 %-53.9 % (30.5 %-50.0 %) compared with the uncertainties of the original ensemble, which are reduced by 10.0 %-45.7 % (4.6 %-34.3 %). We also extend the EC in moving windows and grid cells, further strengthening the robustness of the constraints, especially by illustrating spatial sources of these emergent relationships. Overestimations of LAI and GPP trends suggest that current CMIP6 models may be insufficient to capture the complex relationships between climate change and vegetation dynamics in DEA; however, these models can be adjusted based on established emergent relationships.

Assessment of spongy moth infestation impacts on forest productivity and carbon loss using the Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing and eddy covariance flux data

Background

Deciduous forests in eastern North America experienced a widespread and intense spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) infestation in 2021. This study quantified the impact of this spongy moth infestation on carbon (C) cycle in forests across the Great Lakes region in Canada, utilizing high-resolution (10 × 10 m2) Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing images and eddy covariance (EC) flux data. Study results showed a significant reduction in leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) values in deciduous and mixed forests in the region in 2021.

Results

Remote sensing derived, growing season mean LAI values of deciduous (mixed) forests were 3.66 (3.18), 2.74 (2.64), and 3.53 (2.94) m2 m-2 in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively, indicating about 24 (14)% reduction in LAI, as compared to pre- and post-infestation years. Similarly, growing season GPP values in deciduous (mixed) forests were 1338 (1208), 868 (932), and 1367 (1175) g C m-2, respectively in 2020, 2021 and 2022, showing about 35 (22)% reduction in GPP in 2021 as compared to pre- and post-infestation years. This infestation induced reduction in GPP of deciduous and mixed forests, when upscaled to whole study area (178,000 km2), resulted in 21.1 (21.4) Mt of C loss as compared to 2020 (2022), respectively. It shows the large scale of C losses caused by this infestation in Canadian Great Lakes region.

Conclusions

The methods developed in this study offer valuable tools to assess and quantify natural disturbance impacts on the regional C balance of forest ecosystems by integrating field observations, high-resolution remote sensing data and models. Study results will also help in developing sustainable forest management practices to achieve net-zero C emission goals through nature-based climate change solutions.

Modelling changes in vegetation productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios in southeastern Australia

Australia, characterized by extensive and heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and in efforts to mitigate climate change. Prior research has quantified vegetation productivity and carbon balance within the Australian context over preceding decades. Nonetheless, the responses of vegetation and carbon dynamics to the evolving phenomena of climate change and escalating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide remain ambiguous within the Australian landscape. Here, we used LPJ-GUESS model to assess the impacts of climate change on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Biome Productivity (NBP) of carbon for the state of New South Wales (NSW) in southeastern Australia. LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of 27 global climate models under different emission scenarios. We investigated the change of GPP for different vegetation types and whether NSW ecosystems will be a net sink or source of carbon under climate change. We found that LPJ-GUESS successfully simulated GPP for the period 2003-2021, demonstrating a comparative performance with GPP derived from upscaled eddy covariance fluxes (R2 = 0.58, nRMSE = 14.2 %). The simulated NBP showed a larger interannual variation compared with flux data and other inversion products but could capture the timing of rainfall-driven carbon sink and source variations in 2015-2020. GPP would increase by 10.3-19.5 % under a medium emission scenario and 19.7-46.8 % under a high emission scenario. The mean probability of NSW acting as a carbon sink in the future showed a small decrease with a large uncertainty with >8 of the 27 climate models indicating an increased potential for carbon sink. These findings emphasize the significance of emission scenarios in shaping future carbon dynamics but also highlight considerable uncertainties stemming from different climate projections. Our study represents a baseline for understanding natural ecosystem dynamics and their key role in governing land carbon uptake and storage in Australia.

Impact of aerosol concentration changes on carbon sequestration potential of rice in a temperate monsoon climate zone during the COVID-19: a case study on the Sanjiang Plain, China

The emission reduction of atmospheric pollutants during the COVID-19 caused the change in aerosol concentration. However, there is a lack of research on the impact of changes in aerosol concentration on carbon sequestration potential. To reveal the impact mechanism of aerosols on rice carbon sequestration, the spatial differentiation characteristics of aerosol optical depth (AOD), gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), and meteorological factors were compared in the Sanjiang Plain. Pearson correlation analysis and geographic detector were used to analyze the main driving factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of GPP and NPP. The study showed that the spatial distribution pattern of AOD in the rice-growing area during the epidemic was gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest with an overall decrease of 29.76%. Under the synergistic effect of multiple driving factors, both GPP and NPP increased by more than 5.0%, and the carbon sequestration capacity was improved. LAI and FPAR were the main driving factors for the spatial differentiation of rice GPP and NPP during the epidemic, followed by potential evapotranspiration and AOD. All interaction detection results showed a double-factor enhancement, which indicated that the effects of atmospheric environmental changes on rice primary productivity were the synergistic effect result of multiple factors, and AOD was the key factor that indirectly affected rice primary productivity. The synergistic effects between aerosol-radiation-meteorological factor-rice primary productivity in a typical temperate monsoon climate zone suitable for rice growth were studied, and the effects of changes in aerosol concentration on carbon sequestration potential were analyzed. The study can provide important references for the assessment of carbon sequestration potential in this climate zone.

Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change

The ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to land-atmosphere carbon exchanges, and changes in global GPP as well as its influencing factors have been well studied in recent years. However, identifying the spatio-temporal variations of global GPP under future climate changes is still a challenging issue. This study aims to develop data-driven approach for predicting the global GPP as well as its monthly and annual variations up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Specifically, Catboost was employed to examine the potential relationship between the GPP and environmental factors, with climate variables, CO2 concentration and terrain attributes being selected as environmental factors. The predicted monthly and annual GPP from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that the global GPP is predicted to increase under the future climate change in the 21st century. The annual GPP is expected to be 115.122 Pg C, 116.537 Pg C, 117.626 Pg C, and 120.097 Pg C in 2100 under four future scenarios, and the predicted monthly GPP shows seasonal difference. Meanwhile, GPP tends to increase in the northern mid-high latitude regions and decrease in the equatorial regions. For the climate zones form Köppen-Geiger classification, the arid, cold, and polar zones present increased GPP, while GPP in the tropical zone will decrease in the future. Moreover, the high importance of climate variables in GPP prediction illustrates that the future climate change is the main driver of the global GPP dynamics. This study provides a basis for predicting how global GPP responds to future climate change in the coming decades, which contribute to understanding the interactions between vegetation and climate.

Exploring the spatio-temporal patterns of global mangrove gross primary production and quantifying the factors affecting its estimation, 1996-2020

Mangrove ecosystems, as an important component of "Blue Carbon", play a curial role on global carbon cycling; however, the lack of the global estimates of mangrove ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) and the underlying environmental controls on its estimation remain a gap in knowledge. In this study, we utilized global mangrove eddy covariance data and applied Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to estimate GPP for global mangrove ecosystems, aiming to elucidate the factors influencing these estimates. The optimal GPR achieved favorable estimation performance through cross-validation (R2 = 0.90, RMSE = 0.92 gC/m2/day, WI = 0.86). Over the study period, the globally annual averaged GPP was 2054.53 ± 38.51 gC/m2/yr (comparable to that of evergreen broadleaf forests and exceeds the GPP of most other plant function types), amounting to a total of 304.82 ± 7.71TgC/yr, hotspots exceeding 3000 gC/m2/yr observed near the equator. The analysis revealed a decline in global mangrove GPP during 1996-2020 of -0.89 TgC/yr. Human activities (changes in mangrove cover area) played a relatively consistent role in contributing to this decrease. Conversely, variations in external environmental conditions showed distinct inter-annual differences in their impact. The spatio-temporal distribution patterns of mangrove ecosystems GPP (e.g., the bimodal annual pattern, latitudinal gradients, etc.) demonstrated the regulatory influence of external environmental conditions on GPP estimates. The model ensemble attribution analysis indicated that the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation exerted the dominant control on GPP estimations, while temperature, salinity, and humidity acted as secondary constraints. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for monitoring, modeling, and managing mangrove ecosystems GPP; and underscore the critical role of mangroves in global carbon sequestration. By quantifying the influences of environmental factors, we enhance our understanding of mangrove carbon cycling estimates, thereby helping sustain of these disproportionately productive ecosystems.

Reconstructing annual XCO2 at a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution across China from 2012 to 2019 based on a spatial CatBoost method

Long-time-series, high-resolution datasets of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) have great practical importance for mitigating the greenhouse effect, assessing carbon emissions and implementing a low-carbon cycle. However, the mainstream XCO2 datasets obtained from satellite observations have coarse spatial resolutions and are inadequate for supporting research applications with different precision requirements. Here, we developed a new spatial machine learning model by fusing spatial information with CatBoost, called SCatBoost, to fill the above gap based on existing global land-mapped 1° XCO2 data (GLM-XCO2). The 1-km-spatial-resolution dataset containing XCO2 values in China from 2012 to 2019 reconstructed by SCatBoost has stronger and more stable predictive power (confirmed with a cross-validation (R2 = 0.88 and RSME = 0.20 ppm)) than other traditional models. According to the estimated dataset, the overall national XCO2 showed an increasing trend, with the annual mean concentration rising from 392.65 ppm to 410.36 ppm. In addition, the spatial distribution of XCO2 concentrations in China reflects significantly higher concentrations in the eastern coastal areas than in the western inland areas. The contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) It proposes SCatBoost, integrating the advantages of machine learning methods and spatial characteristics with a high prediction accuracy; (2) It presents a dataset of fine-scale and high resolution XCO2 over China from 2012 to 2019 by the model of SCatBoost; (3) Based on the generated data, we identify the spatiotemporal trends of XCO2 in the scale of nation and city agglomeration. These long-term and high resolution XCO2 data help understand the spatiotemporal variations in XCO2, thereby improving policy decisions and planning about carbon reduction.

Tracking canopy chlorophyll fluorescence with a low-cost light emitting diode platform

Chlorophyll fluorescence measured at the leaf scale through pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) has provided valuable insight into photosynthesis. At the canopy- and satellite-scale, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) provides a method to estimate the photosynthetic activity of plants across spatiotemporal scales. However, retrieving SIF signal remotely requires instruments with high spectral resolution, making it difficult and often expensive to measure canopy-level steady-state chlorophyll fluorescence under natural sunlight. Considering this, we built a novel low-cost photodiode system that retrieves far-red chlorophyll fluorescence emission induced by a blue light emitting diode (LED) light source, for 2 h at night, above the canopy. Our objective was to determine if an active remote sensing-based night-time photodiode method could track changes in canopy-scale LED-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (LEDIF) during an imposed drought on a broadleaf evergreen shrub, Polygala myrtifolia. Far-red LEDIF (720-740 nm) was retrieved using low-cost photodiodes (LEDIFphotodiode) and validated against measurements from a hyperspectral spectroradiometer (LEDIFhyperspectral). To link the LEDIF signal with physiological drought response, we tracked stomatal conductance (gsw) using a porometer, two leaf-level vegetation indices-photochemical reflectance index and normalized difference vegetation index-to represent xanthophyll and chlorophyll pigment dynamics, respectively, and a PAM fluorimeter to measure photochemical and non-photochemical dynamics. Our results demonstrate a similar performance between the photodiode and hyperspectral retrievals of LEDIF (R2 = 0.77). Furthermore, LEDIFphotodiode closely tracked drought responses associated with a decrease in photochemical quenching (R2 = 0.69), Fv/Fm (R2 = 0.59) and leaf-level photochemical reflectance index (R2 = 0.59). Therefore, the low-cost LEDIFphotodiode approach has the potential to be a meaningful indicator of photosynthetic activity at spatial scales greater than an individual leaf and over time.

Methodological challenges and new perspectives of shifting vegetation phenology in eddy covariance data

While numerous studies report shifts in vegetation phenology, in this regard eddy covariance (EC) data, despite its continuous high-frequency observations, still requires further exploration. Furthermore, there is no general consensus on optimal methodologies for data smoothing and extracting phenological transition dates (PTDs). Here, we revisit existing methodologies and present new prospects to investigate phenological changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) from EC measurements. First, we present a smoothing technique of GPP time series through the derivative of its smoothed annual cumulative sum. Second, we calculate PTDs and their trends from a commonly used threshold method that identifies days with a fixed percentage of the annual maximum GPP. A systematic analysis is performed for various thresholds ranging from 0.1 to 0.7. Lastly, we examine the relation of PTDs trends to trends in GPP across the years on a weekly basis. Results from 47 EC sites with long time series (> 10 years) show that advancing trends in start of season (SOS) are strongest at lower thresholds but for the end of season (EOS) at higher thresholds. Moreover, the trends are variable at different thresholds for individual vegetation types and individual sites, outlining reasonable concerns on using a single threshold value. Relationship of trends in PTDs and weekly GPP reveal association of advanced SOS and delayed EOS to increase in immediate primary productivity, but not to the trends in overall seasonal productivity. Drawing on these analyses, we emphasise on abstaining from subjective choices and investigating relationship of PTDs trend to finer temporal trends of GPP. Our study examines existing methodological challenges and presents approaches that optimize the use of EC data in identifying vegetation phenological changes and their relation to carbon uptake.

Improved estimation of global gross primary productivity during 1981-2020 using the optimized P model

Accurate estimation of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is essential for quantifying the net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to estimate GPP at different spatial scales. However, difficulties in proper determination of maximum LUE (LUE_max) and downregulation of LUE_max into actual LUE result in uncertainties in GPP estimated by LUE models. The recently developed P model, as a LUE-like model, captures the deep mechanism of photosynthesis and simplifies parameterization. Site level studies have proved the outperformance of P model over LUE models. However, the global application of the P model is still lacking. Thus, the effectiveness of 5 water stress factors integrated into the P model was compared. The optimal P model was used to generate a new long-term (1981-2020) global monthly GPP dataset at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°, called PGPP. Validation at globally distributed 109 FLUXNET sites indicated that PGPP is better than three widely-used GPP products. R² between PGPP and observed GPP equals to 0.75, the corresponding root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) equal to 1.77 g C m^-2 d^-1 and 1.28 g C m^-2 d^-1. During the period from 1981 to 2020, PGPP significantly increased in 69.02% of global vegetated regions (p < 0.05). Overall, PGPP provides a new GPP product choice for global ecology studies and the comparison of various water stress factors provides a new idea for the improvement of GPP model in the future.

A Study on the Vulnerability of the Gross Primary Production of Rubber Plantations to Regional Short-Term Flash Drought over Hainan Island

Rapidly developing droughts, including flash droughts, have occurred frequently in recent years, causing significant damage to agroforestry ecosystems, and they are expected to increase in the future due to global warming. The artificial forest area in China is the largest in the world, and its carbon budget is crucial to the global carbon sink. As the most prominent plantation plant in the tropics, the rubber (Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex A. Juss.) Muell. Arg.) ecosystem not only has important economic significance, but also has the potential to be a major natural carbon sink in hot areas. Frequent drought events have a significant impact on rubber ecosystem productivity, yet there have been few reports on the vulnerability of rubber productivity to drought. The objective of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of rubber ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) to short-term flash drought (STFD) in Hainan Island, utilizing the localized EC-LUE model (eddy covariance–light use efficiency) validated by flux tower observations as the research tool to conduct the scenario simulations which defined by standard relative humidity index (SRHI), in a total of 96 scenarios (timing × intensity). The results show that, in terms of time, the rubber ecosystem in Hainan Island has the highest vulnerability to STFD during the early rainy season and the lowest at the end of the rainy season. From the dry season to the rainy season, the impact of STFD gradually extends to the northeast. Spatially, the vulnerability of the northern island is higher than that of the southern island and that of the western part is higher than that of eastern Hainan Island. With the increase in STFD intensity, the spatial distribution center of the vulnerability of rubber ecosystem GPP in Hainan Island gradually moves southward. The spatiotemporal pattern of the vulnerability of the rubber ecosystem GPP to STFD over Hainan Island plotted by this study is expected to provide decision makers with more accurate information on the prevention and control of drought disaster risk in rubber ecosystems.

Improving global gross primary productivity estimation by fusing multi-source data products

A reliable estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial vegetation is essential for both making decisions to address global climate change and understanding the global carbon balance. The lack of consistency in global terrestrial GPP estimates across various products leads to great uncertainty. In this study, we improve the quantification of global gross primary productivity by integrating multiple source GPP products without using any prior knowledge through the Bayesian-based Three-Cornered Hat (BTCH) method to generate a new weighted GPP data set. The fusion results demonstrate the superiority of weighted GPP, which greatly reduces the random error of individual datasets and fully takes advantage of the characteristics of multi-source data products. The weighted dataset can largely reproduce the interannual variation of regional GPP. Overall, the merging scheme based on the BTCH method can effectively generate a new GPP dataset that integrates information from multiple products and provides new ideas for GPP estimation on a global scale.

Estimating mangrove forest gross primary production by quantifying environmental stressors in the coastal area

Mangrove ecosystems play an important role in global carbon budget, however, the quantitative relationships between environmental drivers and productivity in these forests remain poorly understood. This study presented a remote sensing (RS)-based productivity model to estimate the light use efficiency (LUE) and gross primary production (GPP) of mangrove forests in China. Firstly, LUE model considered the effects of tidal inundation and therefore involved sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity as environmental scalars. Secondly, the downscaling effect of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) on the mangrove LUE was quantified according to different PAR values. Thirdly, the maximum LUE varied with temperature and was therefore determined based on the response of daytime net ecosystem exchange and PAR at different temperatures. Lastly, GPP was estimated by combining the LUE model with the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation from Sentinel-2 images. The results showed that the LUE model developed for mangrove forests has higher overall accuracy (RMSE = 0.0051, R² = 0.64) than the terrestrial model (RMSE = 0.0220, R² = 0.24). The main environmental stressor for the photosynthesis of mangrove forests in China was PAR. The estimated GPP was, in general, in agreement with the in-situ measurement from the two carbon flux towers. Compared to the MODIS GPP product, the derived GPP had higher accuracy, with RMSE improving from 39.09 to 19.05 g C/m²/8 days in 2012, and from 33.76 to 19.51 g C/m²/8 days in 2015. The spatiotemporal distributions of the mangrove GPP revealed that GPP was most strongly controlled by environmental conditions, especially temperature and PAR, as well as the distribution of mangroves. These results demonstrate the potential of the RS-based productivity model for scaling up GPP in mangrove forests, a key to explore the carbon cycle of mangrove ecosystems at national and global scales.

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2

The global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing^1-3, offsetting roughly a third of anthropogenic CO₂ released into the atmosphere each decade¹, and thus serving to slow⁴ the growth of atmospheric CO₂. It has been suggested that a CO₂-induced long-term increase in global photosynthesis, a process known as CO₂ fertilization, is responsible for a large proportion of the current terrestrial carbon sink^4-7. The estimated magnitude of the historic increase in photosynthesis as result of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies and terrestrial biosphere models^7-13. Here we quantify the historic effect of CO₂ on global photosynthesis by identifying an emergent constraint^14-16 that combines terrestrial biosphere models with global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO₂ fertilization increased global annual photosynthesis by 11.85 ± 1.4%, or 13.98 ± 1.63 petagrams carbon (mean ± 95% confidence interval) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global photosynthesis to CO₂, and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

Comment on "Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis"

[Figure: see text].

Would the obtainable gross primary productivity (GPP) products stand up? A critical assessment of 45 global GPP products

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a vital variable of the global carbon cycle, but the quantification of global GPP is subject to significant uncertainty due to the lack of direct observations at a global scale. Here, we evaluated and compared 45 GPP products in terms of their applicability to different vegetation types at various spatiotemporal scales. The results show that 44 GPP products and obsGPP (Model Tree Ensemble GPP derived from observations and named obsGPP) have similar global patterns with correlation coefficients greater than 0.8 except for NGT, where GOSIF, RS, and BESS are prominent. GPP products have the greatest variation in Suriname, with a mean 75th and 25th percentile difference value of 0.4748 (normalized), and we recommend RS, SDGVM and LPJ-wsl as they provide GPP estimates close to the average GPP. In terms of seasonal estimations, considerable disagreement occurs among the GPP products in winter, with a range from 118.76 to 314.95 gC/m²/season, among which JULES has the closest GPP value to the average GPP estimation. For studies concerning vegetation types preference is given to the LUE average GPP. The 45 GPP products are more consistent on grasslands but, have obvious differences for savannas. All GPP products have their own specific spatiotemporal scales, such as global or national scales or different seasons and different vegetation types (forest, grasslands, etc.). This study provides guidelines for selecting GPP products.

Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Up-Scale Gross Primary Production

Eddy covariance observation is an applicable way to obtain accurate and continuous carbon flux at flux tower sites, while remote sensing technology could estimate carbon exchange and carbon storage at regional and global scales effectively. However, it is still challenging to up-scale the field-observed carbon flux to a regional scale, due to the heterogeneity and the unstable air conditions at the land surface. In this paper, gross primary production (GPP) from ground eddy covariance systems were up-scaled to a regional scale by using five machine learning methods (Cubist regression tree, random forest, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and deep belief network). Then, the up-scaled GPP were validated using GPP at flux tower sites, weighted GPP in the footprint, and MODIS GPP products. At last, the sensitivity of the input data (normalized difference vegetation index, fractional vegetation cover, shortwave radiation, relative humidity and air temperature) to the precision of up-scaled GPP was analyzed, and the uncertainty of the machine learning methods was discussed. The results of this paper indicated that machine learning methods had a great potential in up-scaling GPP at flux tower sites. The validation of up-scaled GPP, using five machine learning methods, demonstrated that up-scaled GPP using random forest obtained the highest accuracy.

A Modeling Application for GHG Fluxes Estimates in Betel Nuts Plantations in Taiwan

Perennial woody crops could have a positive impact on carbon balance, absorbing carbon during growing season and storing it for several years, whereas annual crops do not have this particular effect. Usually, techniques for GHG (greenhouse gases) flux measurements have limited spatial representativeness, with some difficulties to extend leaf measurements to field scale. Models, especially if supported by remote sensing data, allow for upscaling the monitoring of these fluxes. The aim of this work was to evaluate the carbon fluxes (gross primary production, GPP; net ecosystem production, NEP) of the betel nut cultivars in Taiwan by a vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM). The model permitted estimating seasonal dynamics of GPP in a moist tropical evergreen forest. These plantations are very common in Taiwan and their role could be significant in environmental and development policies even though, until now, the consumption of the fruit of this tree is at the center of controversy due to their use and effects on the population. To obtain estimates of carbon fluxes on a large area that would appreciate its spatial variability, a model based on physiological processes was used. This model incorporated a series of procedures and monthly mean meteorological data, light use efficiency, and satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were used as inputs. An additional purpose of this work was to compare the carbon uptake of different cultivars in Taiwan and Italy. Using a different model, always based on light use efficiency, a similar project was carried on Italian vineyards, with other climate conditions and different agricultural practices.

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂ ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂ ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂ ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂ ] (iCO₂ ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂ , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Tighten the Bolts and Nuts on GPP Estimations from Sites to the Globe: An Assessment of Remote Sensing Based LUE Models and Supporting Data Fields

Gross primary production (GPP) determines the amounts of carbon and energy that enter terrestrial ecosystems. However, the tremendous uncertainty of the GPP still hinders the reliability of GPP estimates and therefore understanding of the global carbon cycle. In this study, using observations from global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers, we appraised the performance of 24 widely used GPP models and the quality of major spatial data layers that drive the models. Results show that global GPP products generated by the 24 models varied greatly in means (from 92.7 to 178.9 Pg C yr−1) and trends (from −0.25 to 0.84 Pg C yr−1). Model structure differences (i.e., light use efficiency models, machine learning models, and process-based biophysical models) are an important aspect contributing to the large uncertainty. In addition, various biases in currently available spatial datasets have found (e.g., only 57% of the observed variation in photosynthetically active radiation at the flux tower locations was explained by the spatial dataset), which not only affect GPP simulation but more importantly hinder the simulation and understanding of the earth system. Moving forward, research into the efficacy of model structures and precision of input data may be more important for global GPP estimation.

Prominent vegetation greening and its correlation with climatic variables in northern China

Global vegetation has been reported to be turning greener, especially in China and India. The Yellow River Basin is one of the most prominent greening areas in China. While some studies have attributed vegetation greening to large-scale ecological restoration efforts, our study focuses on the role of climate change in vegetation greening. We selected a time series of annual vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and vegetation coverage from satellite data to quantify the vegetation greening trend. Annual temperature and precipitation were selected to examine the climate trend from 2000 to 2019. The results showed that the Yellow River Basin experienced a rapid increase in temperature and precipitation during this period. Annual temperature increased with an average speed of 0.905 °C per decade, approximately 4.5 times larger than that of global warming. Annual precipitation increased by 82.8%, with an average speed of 9.17 mm per year. There was widespread vegetation greening in the Yellow River Basin during 2000-2019. This was demonstrated by an increase in vegetation NPP and vegetation coverage in the Yellow River Basin. The increase of annual NPP and coverage from 2000 to 1019 was 26.6% and 30.8%, respectively. Even while considering the effects of conservation and restoration efforts, the rapid increases in temperature and precipitation allowed vegetation to flourish, as evidenced by significant positive correlations between climate variables and vegetation variables. Therefore, climate change played an important positive role in vegetation greening, rather than an undesirable disturbance.

Empirical vs. light-use efficiency modelling for estimating carbon fluxes in a mid-succession ecosystem developed on abandoned karst grassland

Karst systems represent an important carbon sink worldwide. However, several phenomena such as the CO2 degassing and the exchange of cave air return a considerable amount of CO2 to the atmosphere. It is therefore of paramount importance to understand the contribution of the ecosystem to the carbon budget of karst areas. In this study conducted in a mid-succession ecosystem developed on abandoned karst grassland, two types of model were assessed, estimating the gross primary production (GPP) or the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) based on seven years of eddy covariance data (2013-2019): (1) a quadratic vegetation index-based empirical model with five alternative vegetation indices as proxies of GPP and NEE, and (2) the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) which is a light use efficiency model to estimate only GPP. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was the best proxy for NEE whereas SAVI performed very similarly to EVI in the case of GPP in the empirical model setting. The empirical model performed better than the VPM model which tended to underestimate GPP. Therefore, for this ecosystem, we suggest the use of the empirical model provided that the quadratic relationship observed persists. However, the VPM model would be a good alternative under a changing climate, as it is rooted in the understanding of the photosynthesis process, if the scalars it involves could be improved to better estimate GPP.

Evaluating the Performance of Sentinel-3A OLCI Land Products for Gross Primary Productivity Estimation Using AmeriFlux Data

Accurate and reliable estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) is of great significance in monitoring global carbon cycles. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) and vegetation index products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are currently the most widely used data in evaluating GPP. The launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard the Sentinel-3 satellite provides the FAPAR and the OLCI Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (OTCI) products with higher temporal resolution and smoother spatial distribution than MODIS, having the potential to monitor terrain GPP. OTCI is one of the red-edge indices and is particularly sensitive to canopy chlorophyll content related to GPP. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the performance of OLCI FAPAR and OTCI for the estimation of GPP across seven biomes in 2017–2018. To this end, OLCI FAPAR and OTCI products in combination with insitu meteorological data were first integrated into the MODIS GPP algorithm and in three OTCI-driven models to simulate GPP. The modeled GPP (GPPOLCI-FAPAR and GPPOTCI) were then compared with flux tower GPP (GPPEC) for each site. Furthermore, the GPPOLCI-FAPAR and GPP derived from the MODIS FAPAR (GPPMODIS-FAPAR) were compared. Results showed that the performance of GPPOLCI-FAPAR was varied in different sites, with the highest R2 of 0.76 and lowest R2 of 0.45. The OTCI-driven models that include APAR data exhibited a significant relationship with GPPEC for all sites, and models using only OTCI provided the most varied performance, with the relationship between GPPOTCI and GPPEC from strong to nonsignificant. Moreover, GPPOLCI-FAPAR (R2 = 0.55) performed better than GPPMODIS-FAPAR (R2 = 0.44) across all biomes. These results demonstrate the potential of OLCI FAPAR and OTCI products in GPP estimation, and they also provide the basis for their combination with the soon-to-launch Fluorescence Explorer satellite and their integration with the Sentinel-3 land surface temperature product into light use models for GPP monitoring at regional and global scales.