Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake

Cascading climate effects in deep reservoirs: Full assessment of physical and biogeochemical dynamics under ensemble climate projections and ways towards adaptation

We coupled twenty-first century climate projections with a well-established water quality model to depict future ecological changes of Rappbode Reservoir, Germany. Our results document a chain of climate-driven effects propagating through the aquatic ecosystem and interfering with drinking water supply: intense climate warming (RCP8.5 scenario) will firstly trigger a strong increase in water temperatures, in turn leading to metalimnetic hypoxia, accelerating sediment nutrient release and finally boosting blooms of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens. Such adverse water quality developments will be suppressed under RCP2.6 and 6.0 indicating that mitigation of climate change is improving water security. Our results also suggested surface withdrawal can be an effective adaptation strategy to make the reservoir ecosystem more resilient to climate warming. The identified consequences from climate warming and adaptation strategies are relevant to many deep waters in the temperate zone, and the conclusion should provide important guidances for stakeholders to confront potential climate changes.

Climate and landuse change enhance spatio-temporal variability of Dongjiang river flow and ammonia nitrogen

The adverse impacts of climate and landuse change are threatening the availability of water quantity and its quality, yet there are limited understandings in the response of water availability to changing environment at different spatio-temporal scales. Aimed at quantifying the individual and superimposed effects of climate and landuse change on streamflow and ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N) load in the Dongjiang River Basin (DRB), we dynamically simulated the historical (1981-2010) and future (2030-2070) variation of runoff depth and NH₃-N load coupling multiple regional climate model and landuse data. The increase in runoff depth (avg. +233.9 mm) due to climate change was about 33 times greater than that caused by landuse change (avg. -7.2 mm). Especially in the downstream of DRB (Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Dongguan cities, etc.), the maximum rise of runoff depth under climate change was near twice compared with baseline period, indicating the dominant control of climate change on runoff. Also there existed higher coefficient of variation (C_v) value of runoff in the dry season of downstream DRB, contributing potential great fluctuation in runoff. Besides, the variation of NH₃-N load was jointly influenced by climate and landuse change, revealing an offset or amplification effect. Moreover, the variability of NH₃-N load (C_v value as the metric) increased from 2030, reached a maximum in 2050, following decreased to 2070. The spatial distribution of NH₃-N load, in general, presented a downward trend and concentrated near the water body, while the monthly average NH₃-N load showed distinct peaks in spring and late summer temporally. Overall, the results highlight the significance of investigating the water availability under changing environment and more adaptive strategies should be proposed for better basin water management.

Modeling the effect of climate change scenarios on water quality for tropical reservoirs

Impact of natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities on water quality is closely related with temperature increase and global warming. In this study, the effects of climate change scenarios on water quality forecasts were assessed through correlations, prediction algorithms, and water quality index (WQI) for tropical reservoirs. The expected trends for different water quality parameters were estimated for the 2030-2100 period in association with temperature trends to estimate water quality using historical data from a dam in Mexico. The WQI scenarios were obtained using algorithms supported by global models of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The RPCs were used to estimate water and air temperature values and extrapolate future WQI values for the water reservoir. The proposed algorithms were validated using historical information collected from 2012 to 2019 and four temperature variation intervals from 3.2 to 5.4 °C (worst forecast) to 0.9-2.3 °C (best forecast) were used for each trajectory using 0.1 °C increases to obtain the trend for each WQI parameter. Variations in the concentration (±30, ±70, and +100) of parameters related to anthropogenic activity (e.g., total suspended solids, fecal coliforms, and chemical oxygen demand) were simulated to obtain water quality scenarios for future health diagnosis of the reservoir. The results projected in the RCP models showed increasing WQI variation for lower temperature values (best forecast WQI = 74; worst forecast WQI = 71). This study offers a novel approach that integrates multiparametric statistical and WQI to help decision making on sustainable water resources management for tropical reservoirs impacted by climate change.

Autochthonous sources and drought conditions drive anomalous oxygen-consuming pollution increase in a sluice-controlled reservoir in eastern China

Freshwater reservoirs are an important type of inland waterbody. However, they can suffer from oxygen-consuming pollution, which can seriously threaten drinking water safety and negatively impact the health of aquatic ecosystems. Oxygen-consuming pollutants originate from both allochthonous and autochthonous sources, and have temporally and spatially heterogeneous drivers. Datanggang Reservoir, China, is located in a small agricultural watershed; it is controlled by multiple sluice gates. Anomalously high oxygen consumption indicators were observed in this reservoir in March 2021. Here, it was hypothesized that autochthonous sources were the primary drivers of oxygen-consuming pollution in the reservoir under drought conditions. Datasets of water quality, precipitation, primary productivity, and sediment were used to analyze water quality trends in the reservoir and inflow rivers, demonstrating the effects of allochthonous inputs and autochthonous pollution. No correlation was found between reservoir oxygen consumption indicators and allochthonous inputs; reservoir oxygen consumption indicators and chlorophyll-a concentration were significantly positively correlated (p < 0.05). Substantially lower precipitation and higher water temperature and pH (compared to historical levels) were also observed before the pollution event. Therefore, during this period the hydrological conditions, water temperature, pH, and other variables caused by short-term drought conditions may have facilitated phytoplankton growth in the reservoir. This contributed to a large increase in autochthonous oxygen-consuming pollutants, as reflected by the abnormally high indicators. Sediments contaminated with organic matter may also have been an important contributor. As the effects of environmental management and pollution control continue to emerge, exogenous pollutants imported from the land to reservoirs are currently effectively controlled. However, endogenous pollutants driven by a variety of factors, such as meteorology and hydrology, will likely become the main drivers of short-term changes in oxygen-consuming pollution in freshwater reservoirs in the foreseeable future.

Eutrophication risk assessment of a large reservoir in the Brazilian semiarid region under climate change scenarios

The present study assesses the risk of eutrophication of a large semiarid reservoir under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for three future periods and different conditions of influent total phosphorus (TP) concentration and reservoir withdrawal. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed for forecasting the climate change impacts on the trophic condition of the reservoir. The projected TP concentrations were organized as probability-based cumulative distribution functions to quantify the risk of eutrophication. The results indicated changes of eutrophication status in the three future periods, with the end of the 21st century experiencing the highest impacts on water quality. On the other hand, major reductions both in the inlet TP concentration and the reservoir withdrawal are necessary to significantly improve the trophic status and minimize the risk of eutrophication. The results also showed that the dry period is more susceptible to eutrophication than the rainy period, suggesting that tropical semiarid reservoirs are more vulnerable to eutrophication under climate change than reservoirs in other regions of the world. The proposed approach and model results are important to better understand the impact of climate change on reservoir water quality and improve water resources management in tropical semiarid regions.

Modeling the sensitivity of cyanobacteria blooms to plausible changes in precipitation and air temperature variability

Many recent studies have attributed the observed variability of cyanobacteria blooms to meteorological drivers and have projected blooms with worsening societal and ecological impacts under future climate scenarios. Nonetheless, few studies have jointly examined their sensitivity to projected changes in both precipitation and temperature variability. Using an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of Lake Champlain's eutrophic Missisquoi Bay, we demonstrate a factorial design approach for evaluating the sensitivity of concentrations of chlorophyll a (chl-a), a cyanobacteria surrogate, to global climate model-informed changes in the central tendency and variability of daily precipitation and air temperature. An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and multivariate contour plots highlight synergistic effects of these climatic changes on exceedances of the World Health Organization's moderate 50 μg/L concentration threshold for recreational contact. Although increased precipitation produces greater riverine total phosphorus loads, warmer and drier scenarios produce the most severe blooms due to the greater mobilization and cyanobacteria uptake of legacy phosphorus under these conditions. Increases in daily precipitation variability aggravate blooms most under warmer and wetter scenarios. Greater temperature variability raises exceedances under current air temperatures but reduces them under more severe warming when water temperatures exceed optimal values for cyanobacteria growth more often. Our experiments, controlled for wind-induced changes to lake water quality, signal the importance of larger summer runoff events for curtailing bloom growth through reductions of water temperature, sunlight penetration and stratification. Finally, the importance of sequences of wet and dry periods in generating cyanobacteria blooms motivates future research on bloom responses to changes in interannual climate persistence.

Optimization of Sustainable Land Use Management in Water Source Area Using Water Quality Dynamic Monitoring Model

Land use management is the primary source of resource planning, and the management part of the sustainable ecosystem of water and soil resources is an important evidence for the sustainable development of the economic and social system. This is guided by the concept of sustainable development, and on the basis of the accumulation of relevant research practices and outcomes at home and abroad, water and land based systems are a research object and study the status of water and soil resource utilization, the state of water and soil coupling, and the supply and demand status of water resources. A balance analysis was carried out, and the gray linear programming model was used to optimize the allocation of land resources using the water quality dynamic monitoring model, which achieved the best coupling of water and soil resources and the greatest benefit. In this paper, aiming at the two types of problems in comprehensive water quality evaluation, namely, aiming at indifference and spatiotemporal changes, this article explores a powerful calculation method based on variable identification models and compiles a GIS geostatistical model (it is a computer-based tool that can draw and analyze ground objects; event GIS technology integrates seamless visual effects between map and local analysis services and general data processing services) to perform spatial analysis and visual expression of the evaluation results, in-depth analysis of the connotation, and theory and optimal allocation model of land resources optimal allocation. On the basis of the conceptual framework of the best share of land sources, the theories that should follow in the best share of land sources are discussed, and the available models and their characteristics are analyzed and compared. Experimental results show that, in the data provided by the analysis of water supply and demand balance at the annual spring system site by constructing an energy monitoring model, the water supply conditions of different water sources are rough, but the data of this study shows that the water shortage rate has reached 25%. In addition, the article explains the setting variables for the optimal allocation of land resources in water sources and compares and analyzes the optimization and planning of land resources in water sources.

Assessment of Water Quality in A Tropical Reservoir in Mexico: Seasonal, Spatial and Multivariable Analysis

Agricultural activities are highly related to the reduction of the availability of water resources due to the consumption of freshwater for crop irrigation, the use of fertilizers and pesticides. In this study, the water quality of the Adolfo López Mateos (ALM) reservoir was evaluated. This is one of the most important reservoirs in Mexico since the water stored is used mainly for crop irrigation in the most productive agricultural region. A comprehensive evaluation of water quality was carried out by analyzing the behavior of 23 parameters at four sampling points in the period of 2012-2019. The analysis of the spatial behavior of the water quality parameters was studied by spatial distribution graphs using the Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation. Pearson correlation was performed to better describe the behavior of all water quality parameters. This analysis revealed that many of these parameters were significantly correlated. The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was carried out and showed the importance of water quality parameters. Ten principal components were obtained, which explained almost 90% of the total variation of the data. Additionally, the comprehensive pollution index showed a slight water quality variation in the ALM reservoir. This study also demonstrated that the main source of contamination in this reservoir occurs near sampling point one. Finally, the results obtained indicated that a contamination risk in the waterbody and further severe ecosystem degradations may occur if appropriate management is not taken.

A case study of factors controlling water quality in two warm monomictic tropical reservoirs located in contrasting agricultural watersheds

The integration of internal (e.g., stratification) and external (e.g., pollution) factors on a comprehensive assessment of reservoir water quality determines the success of ecosystem restoration initiatives and aids watershed management. However, integrated analyses are scarcer than studies addressing factors separately. Integration is likely more efficient in studies of small well-characterized (experimental) reservoir watersheds, because the isolation of factor contributions is presumably clearer. But those studies are uncommon. This work describes the water quality of two small 5.5 m-deep reservoirs (MD-Main and VD-Voçoroca dams) located in Pindorama Experimental Center, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering the interplay between reservoir dimension, seasonal thermal stratification, chemical gradients, erosive rainfall events, presence of natural biofilters, and land uses and landscape patterns around the reservoirs and within the contributing watersheds. The monitoring of agricultural activities and water quality parameters occurred in October 2018-July 2019. A 4 °C thermal stratification occurred in October (difference between surface and bottom water temperature), which decreased until disappearance in January (VD) or April (MD). The longer stratification period of MD was justified by its larger area relative to VD (≈10×). Thermal stratification triggered hypoxia at the bottom of both reservoirs (DO ≈ 1 mg/L), more prolonged and severe in MD. Hypoxia activated Ec and TDS peaks in January likely explained by bottom-sediment nutrient releases, presumably phosphorus. The Ec peak reached 560 μS/cm in MD and 290 μS/cm in VD. The smaller VD peak was probably explained by the action of macrophytes. In March, a 240 NTU turbidity peak occurred in MD, caused by precedent erosive rainfall and the lack of vegetation protection alongside the south border. As expected, the study accomplished clear isolation of factor contributions, verified by Factor and Cluster analyses. Our results can subsidize studies on larger reservoir watersheds requiring restoration, where the isolation of factors is more challenging.

Water-Sediment Physicochemical Dynamics in a Large Reservoir in the Mediterranean Region under Multiple Stressors

Nowadays, the Mediterranean freshwater systems face the threat of water scarcity, along with multiple other stressors (e.g., organic and inorganic contamination, geomorphological alterations, invasive species), leading to the impairment of their ecosystem services. All these stressors have been speeding up, due to climate variability and land cover/land use changes, turning them into a big challenge for the water management plans. The present study analyses the physicochemical and phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a) dynamics of a large reservoir, in the Mediterranean region (Alqueva reservoir, Southern Portugal), under diverse meteorological conditions and land cover/land use real scenarios (2017 and 2018). The most important stressors were identified and the necessary tools and information for a more effective management plan were provided. Changes in these parameters were further related to the observed variations in the meteorological conditions and in the land cover/land use. The increase in nutrients and ions in the water column, and of potentially toxic metals in the sediment, were more obvious in periods of severe drought. Further, the enhancement of nutrients concentrations, potentially caused by the intensification of agricultural activities, may indicate an increased risk of water eutrophication. The results highlight that a holistic approach is essential for a better water resources management strategy.

Effects of Irrigation Discharge on Salinity of a Large Freshwater Lake: A Case Study in Chagan Lake, Northeast China

The salinization of freshwater lakes by agricultural activities poses a threat to many lake ecosystems around the world. Quantitative, medium- to long-term studies are needed to understand how some common agricultural practices, such as the discharge of crop irrigation in the vicinities of large lakes, may affect lake salinization. In this study, hydrological, hydrodynamics, water quality and meteorological datasets were used to analyze the long-term spatial-temporal variations of water salinities of a major lake, the Chagan Lake, in Northeast China. An integrated hydrodynamics-salinity model was used to simulate lake water salinity changes taking place at different times and locations, including (i) salt accumulations during a non-frozen period, and (ii) the time when water salinity may reach a significant threshold (1 psu) that jeopardizes a major environmental and economic value of this lake (i.e., the cultivation of local fish species). The results confirmed that Chagan Lake was indeed undergoing salinization in the ten year period between 2008 and 2018. The spatial-temporal patterns of the salinization processes were identified. For instance, (i) the mean salinity of the lake water was found to be 0.55 psu in the summer season of the region and 0.53 psu in the winter, and (ii) between May to October the salinity was up to 0.62 psu in the western region of the lake. The rate of salt accumulation was found to be 97 ton per annum during the non-frozen period. The simulation predicted that by 2024 the lake water will become sub-saline (salinity > 1.07 psu) which is toxic to fish species, if the current practice of irrigation discharge into the lake continues. In the scenario that the amount of irrigation discharges into the lake doubles, the western region of the lake will become sub-saline within one year, and then the whole lake within three years. Overall, this study has produced results that are useful to authorities around the world, for balancing the risks and benefits of developing crop irrigation fields in areas surrounding large freshwater lakes.