Five-week warning of COVID-19 peaks prior to the Omicron surge in Detroit, Michigan using wastewater surveillance

Normalization of viral loads in Wastewater-Based Epidemiology using routine parameters: One year monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in urban and tourist sewersheds

In wastewater-based epidemiology, normalization of experimental data is a crucial aspect, as emerged in the recent surveillance of COVID-19. Normalization facilitates the comparison between different areas or periods, and it helps in evaluating the differences due to the fluctuation of the population due to seasonal employment or tourism. Analysis of biomarkers in wastewater (i.e. drugs, beverage and food compounds, microorganisms such as PMMoV or crAssphage, etc.) is complex to perform, and it is not routinely monitored. This study compares the results of alternative normalization approaches applied to SARS-CoV-2 loads in wastewater using population size calculated with conventional hydraulic and/or chemical parameters (i.e. total suspended solids, chemical oxygen demand, nitrogen forms, etc.) commonly used in the routine monitoring of water quality. A total of 12 wastewater treatment plants were monitored, and 1068 samples of influent wastewater were collected in urban areas and in highly touristic areas (summer and/or winter). The results indicated that both census and population estimated with ammonium are effective and reliable parameters with which to normalize SARS-CoV-2 loads in wastewater from urban sewersheds with negligible fluctuating populations. However, this study reveals that, in the case of tourist locations, the population calculated using NH4-N loads can provide a better normalization of the specific viral load per inhabitant.

Bioinformatics-based screening tool identifies a wide variety of human and zoonotic viruses in Trujillo-Peru wastewater

Peru was one of the most affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, multiple other viral diseases (enteric, respiratory, bloodborne, and vector-borne) are endemic and rising. According to Peru's Ministry of Health, various health facilities in the country were reallocated for the COVID-19 pandemic, thereby leading to reduced action to curb other diseases. Many viral diseases in the area are under-reported and not recognized. The One Health approach, in addition to clinical testing, incorporates environmental surveillance for detection of infectious disease outbreaks. The purpose of this work is to use a screening tool that is based on molecular methods, high throughput sequencing and bioinformatics analysis of wastewater samples to identify virus-related diseases circulating in Trujillo-Peru. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the tool, we collected nine untreated wastewater samples from the Covicorti wastewater utility in Trujillo-Peru on October 22, 2022. High throughput metagenomic sequencing followed by bioinformatic analysis was used to assess the viral diversity of the samples. Our results revealed the presence of sequences associated with multiple human and zoonotic viruses including Orthopoxvirus, Hepatovirus, Rhadinovirus, Parechovirus, Mamastrovirus, Enterovirus, Varicellovirus, Norovirus, Kobuvirus, Bocaparvovirus, Simplexvirus, Spumavirus, Orthohepevirus, Cardiovirus, Molliscipoxvirus, Salivirus, Parapoxvirus, Gammaretrovirus, Alphavirus, Lymphocryptovirus, Erythroparvovirus, Sapovirus, Cosavirus, Deltaretrovirus, Roseolovirus, Flavivirus, Betacoronavirus, Rubivirus, Lentivirus, Betapolyomavirus, Rotavirus, Hepacivirus, Alphacoronavirus, Mastadenovirus, Cytomegalovirus and Alphapapillomavirus. For confirmation purposes, we tested the samples for the presence of selective viruses belonging to the genera detected above. PCR based molecular methods confirmed the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), monkeypox virus (MPXV), noroviruses GI and GII (NoVGI and NoVGII), and rotavirus A (RoA) in our samples. Furthermore, publicly available clinical data for selected viruses confirm our findings. Wastewater or other environmental media surveillance, combined with bioinformatics methods, has the potential to serve as a systematic screening tool for the identification of human or zoonotic viruses that may cause disease. The results of this method can guide further clinical surveillance efforts and allocation of resources. Incorporation of this bioinformatic-based screening tool by public health officials in Peru and other Latin American countries will help manage endemic and emerging diseases that could save human lives and resources.

From pandemic to endemic: Divergence of COVID-19 positive-tests and hospitalization numbers from SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater of Rochester, Minnesota

Traditionally, public health surveillance relied on individual-level data but recently wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of infectious diseases including COVID-19 became a valuable tool in the public health arsenal. Here, we use WBE to follow the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rochester, Minnesota (population 121,395 at the 2020 census), from February 2021 to December 2022. We monitored the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections on public health by comparing three sets of data: quantitative measurements of viral RNA in wastewater as an unbiased reporter of virus level in the community, positive results of viral RNA or antigen tests from nasal swabs reflecting community reporting, and hospitalization data. From February 2021 to August 2022 viral RNA levels in wastewater were closely correlated with the oscillating course of COVID-19 case and hospitalization numbers. However, from September 2022 cases remained low and hospitalization numbers dropped, whereas viral RNA levels in wastewater continued to oscillate. The low reported cases may reflect virulence reduction combined with abated inclination to report, and the divergence of virus levels in wastewater from reported cases may reflect COVID-19 shifting from pandemic to endemic. WBE, which also detects asymptomatic infections, can provide an early warning of impending cases, and offers crucial insights during pandemic waves and in the transition to the endemic phase.

Wastewater-based Epidemiology for COVID-19 Surveillance: A Survey

The pandemic of COVID-19 has imposed tremendous pressure on public health systems and social economic ecosystems over the past years. To alleviate its social impact, it is important to proactively track the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities. The traditional way to estimate the disease prevalence is to estimate from reported clinical test data or surveys. However, the coverage of clinical tests is often limited and the tests can be labor-intensive, requires reliable and timely results, and consistent diagnostic and reporting criteria. Recent studies revealed that patients who are diagnosed with COVID-19 often undergo fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 virus into wastewater, which makes wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for COVID-19 surveillance a promising approach to complement traditional clinical testing. In this paper, we survey the existing literature regarding WBE for COVID-19 surveillance and summarize the current advances in the area. Specifically, we have covered the key aspects of wastewater sampling, sample testing, and presented a comprehensive and organized summary of wastewater data analytical methods. Finally, we provide the open challenges on current wastewater-based COVID-19 surveillance studies, aiming to encourage new ideas to advance the development of effective wastewater-based surveillance systems for general infectious diseases.

Fate-and-transport modeling of SARS-CoV-2 for rural wastewater-based epidemiology application benefit

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of agents of concern such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been prevalent in literature since 2020. The majority of reported research focuses on large urban centers with few references to rural communities. In this research the EPA-Storm Water Management Model (EPA-SWMM) software was used to describe a small sewershed and identify the effects of temperature, temperature-affected decay rate, flow rate, flush time, fecal shedding rate, and historical infection rates during the spread of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within the sewershed. Due to the sewershed's relative isolation from the rest of the city, its wastewater quality behavior is similar to a rural sewershed. The model was used to assess city wastewater sampling campaigns to best appropriate field and or lab equipment when sampling wastewater. An important aspect of the assessment was the comparison of SARS-CoV-2 quantification methods with specifically between a traditional microbiological lab (practical quantitation limit, PQL, 1 GC/mL) versus what can be known from a field method (PQL 10 GC/mL). Understanding these monitoring choices will help rural communities make decisions on how to best implement the collection and testing for WBE agents of concern. An important outcome of this work is the knowledge that it is possible to simulate a WBE agent of concern with reasonable precision, if uncertainties are incorporated into model sensitivity. These ideas could form the basis for future mixed monitoring-modeling studies that will enhance its application and therefore adoption of WBE techniques in communities of many sizes and financial means.

Beyond linear regression: Modeling COVID-19 clinical cases with wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 for the city of Athens and Ohio University campus

Wastewater-based surveillance has emerged as a detection tool for population-wide infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Infected individuals shed the virus, which can be detected in wastewater using molecular techniques such as reverse transcription-digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-dPCR). This study examined the association between the number of clinical cases and the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater beyond linear regression and for various normalizations of viral loads. Viral loads were measured in a total of 446 wastewater samples during the period from August 2021 to April 2022. These samples were collected from nine different locations, with 220 samples taken from four specific sites within the city of Athens and 226 samples from five sites within Ohio University. The correlation between COVID-19 cases and wastewater viral concentrations, which was estimated using the Pearson correlation coefficient, was statistically significant and ranged from 0.6 to 0.9. In addition, time-lagged cross correlation was applied to identify the lag time between clinical and wastewater data, estimated 4 to 7 days. While we also explored the effect on the correlation coefficients of various normalizations of viral loads accounting for procedural loss or amount of fecal material and of estimated lag times, these alternative specifications did not change our substantive conclusions. Additionally, several linear and non-linear regression models were applied to predict the COVID-19 cases given wastewater data as input. The non-linear approach was found to yield the highest R-squared and Pearson correlation and lowest Mean Absolute Error values between the predicted and actual number of COVID-19 cases for both aggregated OHIO Campus and city data. Our results provide support for previous studies on correlation and time lag and new evidence that non-linear models, approximated with artificial neural networks, should be implemented for WBS of contagious diseases.

A broad wastewater screening and clinical data surveillance for virus-related diseases in the metropolitan Detroit area in Michigan

BACKGROUND

Periodic bioinformatics-based screening of wastewater for assessing the diversity of potential human viral pathogens circulating in a given community may help to identify novel or potentially emerging infectious diseases. Any identified contigs related to novel or emerging viruses should be confirmed with targeted wastewater and clinical testing.

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, untreated wastewater samples were collected for a 1-year period from the Great Lakes Water Authority Wastewater Treatment Facility in Detroit, MI, USA, and viral population diversity from both centralized interceptor sites and localized neighborhood sewersheds was investigated. Clinical cases of the diseases caused by human viruses were tabulated and compared with data from viral wastewater monitoring. In addition to Betacoronavirus, comparison using assembled contigs against a custom Swiss-Prot human virus database indicated the potential prevalence of other pathogenic virus genera, including: Orthopoxvirus, Rhadinovirus, Parapoxvirus, Varicellovirus, Hepatovirus, Simplexvirus, Bocaparvovirus, Molluscipoxvirus, Parechovirus, Roseolovirus, Lymphocryptovirus, Alphavirus, Spumavirus, Lentivirus, Deltaretrovirus, Enterovirus, Kobuvirus, Gammaretrovirus, Cardiovirus, Erythroparvovirus, Salivirus, Rubivirus, Orthohepevirus, Cytomegalovirus, Norovirus, and Mamastrovirus. Four nearly complete genomes were recovered from the Astrovirus, Enterovirus, Norovirus and Betapolyomavirus genera and viral species were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented findings in wastewater samples are primarily at the genus level and can serve as a preliminary "screening" tool that may serve as indication to initiate further testing for the confirmation of the presence of species that may be associated with human disease. Integrating innovative environmental microbiology technologies like metagenomic sequencing with viral epidemiology offers a significant opportunity to improve the monitoring of, and predictive intelligence for, pathogenic viruses, using wastewater.

Effect of wastewater collection and concentration methods on assessment of viral diversity

Monitoring of potentially pathogenic human viruses in wastewater is of crucial importance to understand disease trends in communities, predict potential outbreaks, and boost preparedness and response by public health departments. High throughput metagenomic sequencing opens an opportunity to expand the capabilities of wastewater surveillance. However, there are major bottlenecks in the metagenomic enabled wastewater surveillance, including the complexities in selecting appropriate sampling and concentration/virus enrichment methods as well as in bioinformatic analysis of complex samples with low human virus concentrations. To evaluate the abilities of two commonly used sampling and concentration methods in virus identification, virus communities concentrated with Virus Adsorption-Elution (VIRADEL) and PolyEthylene Glycol (PEG) precipitation were compared for three interceptor sites. Results indicated that more viral reads were obtained by the VIRADEL concentration method, with 2.84 ± 0.57 % viral reads in the sample. For samples concentrated with PEG, the average proportion of viral reads in the sample was 0.63 ± 0.19 %. In all wastewater samples, bacteriophage affiliated with the families Siphoviridae, Myoviridae and Podoviridae were found to be the abundant populations. Comparison against a custom Swiss-Prot human virus database indicated that the relatively abundant human viruses (average proportions in human virus community greater than 1.00 %) in samples concentrated with the VIRADEL method were Orthopoxvirus, Rhadinovirus, Parapoxvirus, Varicellovirus, Hepatovirus, Simplexvirus, Molluscipoxvirus, Parechovirus, Lymphocryptovirus, and Spumavirus. In samples concentrated with the PEG method, fewer human viruses were found to be relatively abundant. These were Orthopoxvirus, Rhadinovirus, Varicellovirus, Simplexvirus, Molluscipoxvirus, Lymphocryptovirus, and Betacoronavirus. Contigs of Betacoronavirus, which contains severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), were identified in VIRADEL and PEG samples. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of using metagenomics in wastewater surveillance as a first screening tool and the need for selecting the appropriate virus concentration methods and optimizing bioinformatic approaches in analyzing metagenomic data of wastewater samples.

Precision public health in schools enabled by wastewater surveillance: A case study of COVID-19 in an Upstate New York middle-high school campus during the 2021-2022 academic year

Wastewater surveillance provides a cost-effective and non-invasive way to gain an understanding of infectious disease transmission including for COVID-19. We analyzed wastewater samples from one school site in Jefferson County, New York during the 2021-2022 school year. We tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA once weekly and compared those results with the clinical COVID-19 cases in the school. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with the number of incident COVID-19 cases, with the best correlation being one day lead time between the wastewater sample and the number of COVID-19 cases. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of wastewater surveillance to correctly identify any COVID-19 cases up to 7 days after a wastewater sample collection ranged from 82-100% and 59-78% respectively, depending upon the amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the sample. The specificity and negative predictive value of wastewater surveillance to correctly identify when the school was without a case of COVID-19 ranged from 67-78% and 70-80%, respectively, depending upon the amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the sample. The lead time observed in this study suggests that transmission might occur within a school before SARS-CoV-2 is identified in wastewater. However, wastewater surveillance should still be considered as a potential means of understanding school-level COVID-19 trends and is a way to enable precision public health approaches tailored to the epidemiologic situation in an individual school.

Targeted community wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and Mpox virus during a festival mass-gathering event

Wastewater surveillance has emerged recently as a powerful approach to understanding infectious disease dynamics in densely populated zones. Wastewater surveillance, while promising as a public health tool, is often hampered by slow turn-around times, complex analytical protocols, and resource-intensive techniques. In this study, we evaluated an affinity capture method and microfluidic digital PCR as a rapid approach to quantify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) virus, and fecal indicator, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) in wastewater during a mass-gathering event. Wastewater samples (n = 131) were collected from residential and commercial manholes, pump stations, and a city's wastewater treatment plant. The use of Nanotrap® Microbiome Particles and microfluidic digital PCR produced comparable results to other established methodologies, with reduced process complexity and analytical times, providing same day results for public health preparedness and response. Using indigenous SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV in wastewater, the average viral recovery efficiency was estimated at 10.1 %. Both SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 genes were consistently detected throughout the sampling period, with increased RNA concentrations mainly in wastewater samples collected from commercial area after festival mass gatherings. The mpox virus was sporadically detected in wastewater samples during the surveillance period, without distinct temporal trends. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the city's wastewater mirrored the city's COVID-19 cases, confirming the predictive properties of wastewater surveillance. Wastewater surveillance continues to be beneficial for tracking diseases that display gastrointestinal symptoms, including SARS-CoV-2, and can be a powerful tool for sentinel surveillance. However, careful site selection and a thorough understanding of community dynamics are necessary when performing targeted surveillance during temporary mass-gathering events as potential confirmation bias may occur.

Impact of coagulation on SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV viral signal in wastewater solids

Wastewater surveillance (WWS) of SARS-CoV-2 has become a crucial tool for monitoring COVID-19 cases and outbreaks. Previous studies have indicated that SARS-CoV-2 RNA measurement from testing solid-rich primary sludge yields better sensitivity compared to testing wastewater influent. Furthermore, measurement of pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) signal in wastewater allows for precise normalization of SARS-CoV-2 viral signal based on solid content, enhancing disease prevalence tracking. However, despite the widespread adoption of WWS, a knowledge gap remains regarding the impact of ferric sulfate coagulation, commonly used in enhanced primary clarification, the initial stage of wastewater treatment where solids are sedimented and removed, on SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV quantification in wastewater-based epidemiology. This study examines the effects of ferric sulfate addition, along with the associated pH reduction, on the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV viral measurements in wastewater primary clarified sludge through jar testing. Results show that the addition of Fe3+ concentrations in the conventional 0 to 60 mg/L range caused no effect on SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 gene region measurements in wastewater solids. However, elevated Fe3+ concentrations were shown to be associated with a statistically significant increase in PMMoV viral measurements in wastewater solids, which consequently resulted in the underestimation of PMMoV-normalized SARS-CoV-2 viral signal measurements (N1 and N2 copies/copies of PMMoV). The observed pH reduction from coagulant addition did not contribute to the increased PMMoV measurements, suggesting that this phenomenon arises from the partitioning of PMMoV viral particles into wastewater solids.

Effectiveness of environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 as an early-warning system: Update of a systematic review during the second year of the pandemic

The aim of this updated systematic review was to offer an overview of the effectiveness of environmental surveillance (ES) of SARS-CoV-2 as a potential early-warning system (EWS) for COVID-19 and new variants of concerns (VOCs) during the second year of the pandemic. An updated literature search was conducted to evaluate the added value of ES of SARS-CoV-2 for public health decisions. The search for studies published between June 2021 and July 2022 resulted in 1,588 publications, identifying 331 articles for full-text screening. A total of 151 publications met our inclusion criteria for the assessment of the effectiveness of ES as an EWS and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We identified a further 30 publications among the grey literature. ES confirms its usefulness as an EWS for detecting new waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average lead time of 1-2 weeks for most of the publication. ES could function as an EWS for new VOCs in areas with no registered cases or limited clinical capacity. Challenges in data harmonization and variant detection require standardized approaches and innovations for improved public health decision-making. ES confirms its potential to support public health decision-making and resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron spike

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern, first identified in November 2021, rapidly spread worldwide and diversified into several subvariants. The Omicron spike (S) protein accumulated an unprecedented number of sequence changes relative to previous variants. In this review, we discuss how Omicron S protein structural features modulate host cell receptor binding, virus entry, and immune evasion and highlight how these structural features differentiate Omicron from previous variants. We also examine how key structural properties track across the still-evolving Omicron subvariants and the importance of continuing surveillance of the S protein sequence evolution over time.

Early warning of statewide COVID-19 Omicron wave by sentineled urbanized sewer network monitoring using digital PCR in a province capital city, of Gujarat, India

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been implemented globally. However, there remains confusion about the number and frequency of samples to be collected, as well as which types of treatment systems can provide reliable specific details about the virus prevalence in specific areas or communities, enabling prompt management and intervention measures. More research is necessary to fully comprehend the possibility of deploying sentinel locations in sewer networks in larger geographic areas. The present study introduces the first report on wastewater-based surveillance in Gandhinagar City using digital PCR (d-PCR) as a SARS-Cov-2 quantification tool, which describes the viral load from five pumping stations in Gandhinagar from October 2021 to March 2022. Raw wastewater samples (n = 119) were received and analyzed weekly to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA, 109 of which were positive for N1 or N2 genes. The monthly variation analysis in viral genome copies depicted the highest concentrations in January 2022 and February 2022 (p < 0.05; Wilcoxon signed rank test) coincided with the Omicron wave, which contributed mainly from Vavol and Jaspur pumping stations. Cross-correlation analysis indicated that WBE from five stations in Gandhinagar, i.e., capital city sewer networks, provided two-week lead times to the citywide and statewide active cases (time-series cross-correlation function [CCF]; 0.666 and 0.648, respectively), mainly from individual contributions of the urbanized Kudasan and Vavol stations (CCF; 0.729 and 0.647, respectively). These findings suggest that sewer pumping stations in urbanized neighborhoods can be used as sentinel sites for statewide clinical surveillance and that WBE surveillance using digital PCR can be an efficient monitoring and management tool.

Utilizing river and wastewater as a SARS-CoV-2 surveillance tool in settings with limited formal sewage systems

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted health systems globally and robust surveillance has been critical for pandemic control, however not all countries can currently sustain community pathogen surveillance programs. Wastewater surveillance has proven valuable in high-income settings, but less is known about the utility of water surveillance of pathogens in low-income countries. Here we show how wastewater surveillance of SAR-CoV-2 can be used to identify temporal changes and help determine circulating variants quickly. In Malawi, a country with limited community-based COVID-19 testing capacity, we explore the utility of rivers and wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. From May 2020-May 2022, we collect water from up to 112 river or defunct wastewater treatment plant sites, detecting SARS-CoV-2 in 8.3% of samples. Peak SARS-CoV-2 detection in water samples predate peaks in clinical cases. Sequencing of water samples identified the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants, with Delta and Omicron detected well in advance of detection in patients. Our work highlights how wastewater can be used to detect emerging waves, identify variants of concern, and provide an early warning system in settings with no formal sewage systems.

Wastewater-based surveillance models for COVID-19: A focused review on spatio-temporal models

The evident shedding of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles from infected individuals into the wastewater opened up a tantalizing array of possibilities for prediction of COVID-19 prevalence prior to symptomatic case identification through community testing. Many countries have therefore explored the use of wastewater metrics as a surveillance tool, replacing traditional direct measurement of prevalence with cost-effective approaches based on SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater samples. Two important aspects in building prediction models are: time over which the prediction occurs and space for which the predicted case numbers is shown. In this review, our main focus was on finding mathematical models which take into the account both the time-varying and spatial nature of wastewater-based metrics into account. We used six main characteristics as our assessment criteria: i) modelling approach; ii) temporal coverage; iii) spatial coverage; iv) sample size; v) wastewater sampling method; and vi) covariates included in the modelling. The majority of studies in the early phases of the pandemic recognized the temporal association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration level in wastewater with the number of COVID-19 cases, ignoring their spatial context. We examined 15 studies up to April 2023, focusing on models considering both temporal and spatial aspects of wastewater metrics. Most early studies correlated temporal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels with COVID-19 cases but overlooked spatial factors. Linear regression and SEIR models were commonly used (n = 10, 66.6 % of studies), along with machine learning (n = 1, 6.6 %) and Bayesian approaches (n = 1, 6.6 %) in some cases. Three studies employed spatio-temporal modelling approach (n = 3, 20.0 %). We conclude that the development, validation and calibration of further spatio-temporally explicit models should be done in parallel with the advancement of wastewater metrics before the potential of wastewater as a surveillance tool can be fully realised.

Wastewater surveillance in the COVID-19 post-emergency pandemic period: A promising approach to monitor and predict SARS-CoV-2 surges and evolution

On May 24, 2023, approximately 3.5 years into the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency. However, as there are still ∼3000 COVID-19 deaths per day in May 2023, robust surveillance systems are still warranted to return to normalcy in times of low risk and respond appropriately in times of high risk. The different phases of the pandemic have been defined by infection numbers and variants, both of which have been determined through clinical tests that are subject to many biases. Unfortunately, the end of the COVID-19 emergency threatens to exasperate these biases, thereby warranting alternative tracking methods. We hypothesized that wastewater surveillance could be used as a more accurate and comprehensive method to track SARS-CoV-2 in the post-emergency pandemic period (PEPP). SARS-CoV-2 was quantified and sequenced from wastewater between June 2022 and March 2023 to research the anticipated 2022/23 winter surge. However, in the 2022/23 winter, there was lower-than-expected SARS-CoV-2 circulation, which was hypothesized to be due to diagnostic testing biases but was confirmed by our wastewater analysis, thereby emphasizing the unpredictable nature of SARS-CoV-2 surges while also questioning its winter seasonality. Even in times of low baseline circulation, we found wastewater surveillance to be sensitive enough to detect minor changes in circulation levels ∼30-46 days prior to diagnostic tests, suggesting that wastewater surveillance may be a more appropriate early warning system to prepare for unpredictable surges in the PEPP. Furthermore, sequencing of wastewater detected variants of concern that were positively correlated with clinical samples and also provided a method to identify mutations with a high likelihood of appearing in future variants, necessary for updating vaccines and therapeutics prior to novel variant circulation. Together, these data highlight the effectiveness of wastewater surveillance in the PEPP to limit the global health burden of SARS-CoV-2 due to increases in circulation and/or viral evolution.

Wastewater Monitoring for Infectious Disease: Intentional Relationships between Academia, the Private Sector, and Local Health Departments for Public Health Preparedness

The public health emergency caused by the COVID-19 pandemic stimulated stakeholders from diverse disciplines and institutions to establish new collaborations to produce informed public health responses to the disease. Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 grew quickly during the pandemic and required the rapid implementation of such collaborations. The objective of this article is to describe the challenges and results of new relationships developed in Detroit, MI, USA among a medical school and an engineering college at an academic institution (Wayne State University), the local health department (Detroit Health Department), and an environmental services company (LimnoTech) to utilize markers of the COVID-19 virus, SARS-CoV-2, in wastewater for the goal of managing COVID-19 outbreaks. Our collaborative team resolved questions related to sewershed selection, communication of results, and public health responses and addressed technical challenges that included ground-truthing the sewer maps, overcoming supply chain issues, improving the speed and sensitivity of measurements, and training new personnel to deal with a new disease under pandemic conditions. Recognition of our complementary roles and clear communication among the partners enabled city-wide wastewater data to inform public health responses within a few months of the availability of funding in 2020, and to make improvements in sensitivity and understanding to be made as the pandemic progressed and evolved. As a result, the outbreaks of COVID-19 in Detroit in fall and winter 2021-2022 (corresponding to Delta and Omicron variant outbreaks) were tracked in 20 sewersheds. Data comparing community- and hospital-associated sewersheds indicate a one- to two-week advance warning in the community of subsequent peaks in viral markers in hospital sewersheds. The new institutional relationships impelled by the pandemic provide a good basis for continuing collaborations to utilize wastewater-based human and pathogen data for improving the public health in the future.

Targeting a free viral fraction enhances the early alert potential of wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: a methods comparison spanning the transition between delta and omicron variants in a large urban center

Introduction

Wastewater surveillance has proven to be a valuable approach to monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Recognizing the benefits of wastewater surveillance as a tool to support public health in tracking SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens, numerous wastewater virus sampling and concentration methods have been tested for appropriate applications as well as their significance for actionability by public health practices.

Methods

Here, we present a 34-week long wastewater surveillance study that covers nearly 4 million residents of the Detroit (MI, United States) metropolitan area. Three primary concentration methods were compared with respect to recovery of SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater: Virus Adsorption-Elution (VIRADEL), polyethylene glycol precipitation (PEG), and polysulfone (PES) filtration. Wastewater viral concentrations were normalized using various parameters (flow rate, population, total suspended solids) to account for variations in flow. Three analytical approaches were implemented to compare wastewater viral concentrations across the three primary concentration methods to COVID-19 clinical data for both normalized and non-normalized data: Pearson and Spearman correlations, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and Time Lagged Cross Correlation (TLCC) and peak synchrony.

Results

It was found that VIRADEL, which captures free and suspended virus from supernatant wastewater, was a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases within the region, whereas PEG and PES filtration, which target particle-associated virus, each lagged behind the early alert potential of VIRADEL. PEG and PES methods may potentially capture previously shed and accumulated SARS-CoV-2 resuspended from sediments in the interceptors.

Discussion

These results indicate that the VIRADEL method can be used to enhance the early-warning potential of wastewater surveillance applications although drawbacks include the need to process large volumes of wastewater to concentrate sufficiently free and suspended virus for detection. While lagging the VIRADEL method for early-alert potential, both PEG and PES filtration can be used for routine COVID-19 wastewater monitoring since they allow a large number of samples to be processed concurrently while being more cost-effective and with rapid turn-around yielding results same day as collection.

Recent progress on wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance: A systematic review of analytical procedures and epidemiological modeling

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), whose causative agent is the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a pandemic. This virus is predominantly transmitted via respiratory droplets and shed via sputum, saliva, urine, and stool. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been able to monitor the circulation of viral pathogens in the population. This tool demands both in-lab and computational work to be meaningful for, among other purposes, the prediction of outbreaks. In this context, we present a systematic review that organizes and discusses laboratory procedures for SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantification from a wastewater matrix, along with modeling techniques applied to the development of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance. The goal of this review is to present the current panorama of WBE operational aspects as well as to identify current challenges related to it. Our review was conducted in a reproducible manner by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for systematic reviews. We identified a lack of standardization in wastewater analytical procedures. Regardless, the reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) approach was the most reported technique employed to detect and quantify viral RNA in wastewater samples. As a more convenient sample matrix, we suggest the solid portion of wastewater to be considered in future investigations due to its higher viral load compared to the liquid fraction. Regarding the epidemiological modeling, the data-driven approach was consistently used for the prediction of variables associated with outbreaks. Future efforts should also be directed toward the development of rapid, more economical, portable, and accurate detection devices.

Wastewater surveillance beyond COVID-19: a ranking system for communicable disease testing in the tri-county Detroit area, Michigan, USA

Introduction

Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, wastewater surveillance has been utilized to monitor the disease in the United States through routine national, statewide, and regional monitoring projects. A significant canon of evidence was produced showing that wastewater surveillance is a credible and effective tool for disease monitoring. Hence, the application of wastewater surveillance can extend beyond monitoring SARS-CoV-2 to encompass a diverse range of emerging diseases. This article proposed a ranking system for prioritizing reportable communicable diseases (CDs) in the Tri-County Detroit Area (TCDA), Michigan, for future wastewater surveillance applications at the Great Lakes Water Authority's Water Reclamation Plant (GLWA's WRP).

Methods

The comprehensive CD wastewater surveillance ranking system (CDWSRank) was developed based on 6 binary and 6 quantitative parameters. The final ranking scores of CDs were computed by summing the multiplication products of weighting factors for each parameter, and then were sorted based on decreasing priority. Disease incidence data from 2014 to 2021 were collected for the TCDA. Disease incidence trends in the TCDA were endowed with higher weights, prioritizing the TCDA over the state of Michigan.

Results

Disparities in incidences of CDs were identified between the TCDA and state of Michigan, indicating epidemiological differences. Among 96 ranked CDs, some top ranked CDs did not present relatively high incidences but were prioritized, suggesting that such CDs require significant attention by wastewater surveillance practitioners, despite their relatively low incidences in the geographic area of interest. Appropriate wastewater sample concentration methods are summarized for the application of wastewater surveillance as per viral, bacterial, parasitic, and fungal pathogens.

Discussion

The CDWSRank system is one of the first of its kind to provide an empirical approach to prioritize CDs for wastewater surveillance, specifically in geographies served by centralized wastewater collection in the area of interest. The CDWSRank system provides a methodological tool and critical information that can help public health officials and policymakers allocate resources. It can be used to prioritize disease surveillance efforts and ensure that public health interventions are targeted at the most potentially urgent threats. The CDWSRank system can be easily adopted to geographical locations beyond the TCDA.

Simple methods for early warnings of COVID-19 surges: Lessons learned from 21 months of wastewater and clinical data collection in Detroit, Michigan, United States

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has drawn great attention since the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, not only due to its capability to circumvent the limitations of traditional clinical surveillance, but also due to its potential to forewarn fluctuations of disease incidences in communities. One critical application of WBE is to provide "early warnings" for upcoming fluctuations of disease incidences in communities which traditional clinical testing is incapable to achieve. While intricate models have been developed to determine early warnings based on wastewater surveillance data, there is an exigent need for straightforward, rapid, broadly applicable methods for health departments and partner agencies to implement. Our purpose in this study is to develop and evaluate such early-warning methods and clinical-case peak-detection methods based on WBE data to mount an informed public health response. Throughout an extended wastewater surveillance period across Detroit, MI metropolitan area (the entire study period is from September 2020 to May 2022) we designed eight early-warning methods (three real-time and five post-factum). Additionally, we designed three peak-detection methods based on clinical epidemiological data. We demonstrated the utility of these methods for providing early warnings for COVID-19 incidences, with their counterpart accuracies evaluated by hit rates. "Hit rates" were defined as the number of early warning dates (using wastewater surveillance data) that captured defined peaks (using clinical epidemiological data) divided by the total number of early warning dates. Hit rates demonstrated that the accuracy of both real-time and post-factum methods could reach 100 %. Furthermore, the results indicate that the accuracy was influenced by approaches to defining peaks of disease incidence. The proposed methods herein can assist health departments capitalizing on WBE data to assess trends and implement quick public health responses to future epidemics. Besides, this study elucidated critical factors affecting early warnings based on WBE amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wastewater monitoring in tourist cities as potential sentinel sites for near real-time dynamics of imported SARS-CoV-2 variants

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) complements the clinical surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants' distribution in populations. Many developed nations have established national and regional WBE systems; however, governance and budget constraints could be obstacles for low- and middle-income countries. An urgent need thus exists to identify hotspots to serve as sentinel sites for WBE. We hypothesized that representative wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in two international gateway cities, Bangkok and Phuket, Thailand, could be sentineled for SARS-CoV-2 and its variants to reflect the clinical distribution patterns at city level and serve as early indicators of new variants entering the country. Municipal wastewater samples (n = 132) were collected from eight representative municipal WWTPs in Bangkok and Phuket during 19 sampling events from October 2021 to March 2022, which were tested by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) using the US CDC N1 and N2 multiplex and variant (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 and BA.2) singleplex assays. The variant detection ratios from Bangkok and Phuket followed similar trends to the national clinical testing data, and each variant's viral loads agreed with the daily new cases (3-d moving average). Omicron BA.1 was detected in Phuket wastewater prior to Bangkok, possibly due to Phuket's WWTPs serving tourist communities. We found that the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 viral loads predominantly drove the SARS-CoV-2 resurgence. We also noted a shifting pattern in the Bangkok WBE from a 22-d early warning in early 2021 to a near real-time pattern in late 2021. The potential application of tourist hotspots for WBE to indicate the arrival of new variants and re-emerging or unprecedented infectious agents could support tourism-dependent economies by complementing the reduced clinical regulations while maintaining public health protection via wastewater surveillance.

Citywide wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels strongly correlated with multiple disease surveillance indicators and outcomes over three COVID-19 waves

Public health surveillance systems for COVID-19 are multifaceted and include multiple indicators reflective of different aspects of the burden and spread of the disease in a community. With the emergence of wastewater disease surveillance as a powerful tool to track infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, there is a need to integrate and validate wastewater information with existing disease surveillance systems and demonstrate how it can be used as a routine surveillance tool. A first step toward integration is showing how it relates to other disease surveillance indicators and outcomes, such as case positivity rates, syndromic surveillance data, and hospital bed use rates. Here, we present an 86-week long surveillance study that covers three major COVID-19 surges. City-wide SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral loads in wastewater were measured across 39 wastewater treatment plants and compared to other disease metrics for the city of Houston, TX. We show that wastewater levels are strongly correlated with positivity rate, syndromic surveillance rates of COVID-19 visits, and COVID-19-related general bed use rates at hospitals. We show that the relative timing of wastewater relative to each indicator shifted across the pandemic, likely due to a multitude of factors including testing availability, health-seeking behavior, and changes in viral variants. Next, we show that individual WWTPs led city-wide changes in SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, indicating a distributed monitoring system could be used to enhance the early-warning capability of a wastewater monitoring system. Finally, we describe how the results were used in real-time to inform public health response and resource allocation.

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in nine neighborhood sewersheds in Detroit Tri-County area, United States: Assessing per capita SARS-CoV-2 estimations and COVID-19 incidence

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been suggested as a useful tool to predict the emergence and investigate the extent of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study, we screened appropriate population biomarkers for wastewater SARS-CoV-2 normalization and compared the normalized SARS-CoV-2 values across locations with different demographic characteristics in southeastern Michigan. Wastewater samples were collected between December 2020 and October 2021 from nine neighborhood sewersheds in the Detroit Tri-County area. Using reverse transcriptase droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-ddPCR), concentrations of N1 and N2 genes in the studied sites were quantified, with N1 values ranging from 1.92 × 102 genomic copies/L to 6.87 × 103 gc/L and N2 values ranging from 1.91 × 102 gc/L to 6.45 × 103 gc/L. The strongest correlations were observed with between cumulative COVID-19 cases per capita (referred as COVID-19 incidences thereafter), and SARS-CoV-2 concentrations normalized by total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), creatinine, 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) and xanthine when correlating the per capita SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 incidences. When SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater were normalized and compared with COVID-19 incidences, the differences between neighborhoods of varying demographics were reduced as compared to differences observed when comparing non-normalized SARS-CoV-2 with COVID-19 cases. This indicates when studying the disease burden in communities of different demographics, accurate per capita estimation is of great importance. The study suggests that monitoring selected water quality parameters or biomarkers, along with RNA concentrations in wastewater, will allow adequate data normalization for spatial comparisons, especially in areas where detailed sanitary sewage flows and contributing populations in the catchment areas are not available. This opens the possibility of using WBE to assess community infections in rural areas or the developing world where the contributing population of a sample could be unknown.

Anthropogenic Sewage Water Circuit as Vector for SARS-CoV-2 Viral ARN Transport and Public Health Assessment, Monitoring and Forecasting-Sibiu Metropolitan Area (Transylvania/Romania) Study Case

Water is a risk factor for epidemics of waterborne diseases with effects on human health. In 2019, new viral pneumonia cases occurred in China and spread worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and accuracy of a wastewater-based epidemiological (WBE) monitoring tool in a SARS-CoV-2 hot spot (Sibiu City metropolitan area), namely to highlight the correlation between the number of infections on the days of sampling and the amount of viral RNA detected in wastewater. Wastewater samples were collected once a week, and viral RNA was extracted and quantified. In parallel, the daily number of SARS-CoV-2 infections was obtained from the local council. The correlation between the number of infections and viruses detected in sewage was measured by Pearson correlation coefficients. The results show the amount of viral RNA in the wastewater is directly correlated with the number of infections reported in the week up to the sampling day and also the number of infections reported for the sampling day. Moreover, correlation coefficients show the amount of viral RNA in wastewater increases in advance of the increase in reported infection cases. Therefore, WBE can be used as a tool for monitoring virus spread trends in human communities and can help anticipate the trend of this type of viral infection.

SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring in Wastewater Reveals Novel Variants and Biomarkers of Infection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a popular tool for the early indication of community spread of infectious diseases. WBE emerged as an effective tool during the COVID-19 pandemic and has provided meaningful information to minimize the spread of infection. Here, we present a combination of analyses using the correlation of viral gene copies with clinical cases, sequencing of wastewater-derived RNA for the viral mutants, and correlative analyses of the viral gene copies with the bacterial biomarkers. Our study provides a unique platform for potentially using the WBE-derived results to predict the spread of COVID-19 and the emergence of new variants of concern. Further, we observed a strong correlation between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and changes in the microbial community of wastewater, particularly the significant changes in bacterial genera belonging to the families of Lachnospiraceae and Actinomycetaceae. Our study shows that microbial biomarkers could be utilized as prediction tools for future infectious disease surveillance and outbreak responses. Overall, our comprehensive analyses of viral spread, variants, and novel bacterial biomarkers will add significantly to the growing body of literature on WBE and COVID-19.