A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia

A modified SEIR model with a jump in the transmission parameter applied to COVID-19 data on Wuhan

In December 2019, Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province, was struck by an outbreak of COVID-19. Numerous studies have been conducted to fit COVID-19 data and make statistical inferences. In applications, functions of the parameters in the model are usually used to assess severity of the outbreak. Because of the strategies applied during the struggle against the pandemic, the trend of the parameters changes abruptly. However, time-varying parameters with a jump have received scant attention in the literature. In this study, a modified SEIR model is proposed to fit the actual situation of the COVID-19 epidemic. In the proposed model, the dynamic propagation system is modified because of the high infectivity during incubation, and a time-varying parametric strategy is suggested to account for the utility of the intervention. A corresponding model selection algorithm based on the information criterion is also suggested to detect the jump in the transmission parameter. A real data analysis based on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan and a simulation study demonstrate the plausibility and validity of the proposed method.

Analysis of Clinical Manifestations and Imaging of COVID-19 Patients in Intensive Care

Objective. The study aims to summarize and analyze the clinical and CT findings of severe COVID-19 patients. Methods. From February 11 to March 31, 2020, 61 COVID-19 patients in intensive care in the E1-3 ward of Tongji Hospital were analyzed retrospectively. Results. The main clinical manifestations were cough, expectoration in 56 cases (91.8%), shortness of breath, chest tightness in 48 cases (78.7%), fever in 61 cases (100%), muscle ache and weakness in 40 cases (65.6%), diarrhea or vomiting in 8 cases (13.1%), and headache in 4 cases (6.6%). After admission, the leukocyte count was normal in 40 cases (57.7%), higher in 9 cases (15.4%), and lower in 12 cases (26.9%). The lymphocyte count decreased in 53 cases (86.9%). CRP was increased in 29 cases (47.5%); PCT was increased in 15 cases (24.6%); ESR was increased in 38 cases (62.3%); D-dimer increased in 39 cases (63.9%); ALT/AST increased in 40 cases (65.6%); CK/CK-MB increased in 8 cases (13.1%); troponin I increased in 6 cases (9.8%); NT-proBNP increased in 35 cases (57.4%); IL-1 increased in 5 cases (8.2%); IL-2 receptor increased in 28 cases (45.9%); IL-6 increased in 23 cases (37.7%); IL-8 increased in 15 cases (24.6%); IL-10 increased in 12 cases (19.7%); and NTF increased in 22 cases (36.1%). The chest CT images showed that 38 cases (65.5%) of right lung lesions were more extensive than those of left lung lesions, 20 cases (34.5%) of left lung lesions were more extensive than those of right lung lesions, 42 cases (72.5%) of lower lobe lesions were more extensive than those of upper lobe lesions, 6 cases (10.3%) of upper lobe lesions were more extensive than those of lower lobe lesions, and 10 cases (17.2%) of upper and lower part lesions were roughly the same. Ground-glass opacity (GGO) was found in 12 cases (20.7%); GGO with focal consolidation in 38 cases (65.5%); small patchy edge fuzzy density increased in 24 cases (41.4%); large consolidation in 20 cases (34.5%); reticular or fibrous cord in 54 cases (93.1%); and air bronchogram in 8 cases (13.8%). Conclusions. COVID-19 patients in intensive care have no specific clinical manifestation and CT findings. However, analysis and summary of relevant data can help us assess the severity of the disease, decide the timing of treatment, and predict prognosis.

The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus

Background

In this study, we aimed to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and determine its transmissibility.

Methods

Based on the natural history and transmission features of MERS in different countries, a susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/death (SEIARD) model and a multi-route dynamic model (MMDM). The SEIARD model and MMDM were adopted to simulate MERS in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Data on reported MERS cases in the two countries were obtained from the World Health Organization. Thereafter, the next generation matrix method was employed to derive the equation for the basic reproduction number (R₀), and the model fitting procedure was adopted to calculate the R₀ values corresponding to these different countries.

Results

In South Korea, ‘Person-to-Person’ transmission was identified as the main mode of MERS transmission in healthcare settings, while in Saudi Arabia, in addition to ‘Person-to-Person’ transmission, ‘Host-to-Host’ and ‘Host-to-Person’ transmission also occurred under certain scenarios, with camels being the main host. Further, the fitting results showed that the SEIARD model and MMDM fitted the data well. The mean R₀ value was 8.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0–28.02) for MERS in South Korea, and for MERS in Saudi Arabia, it was 1.15 and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.86–1.44) for the ‘Person-to-Person’ and ‘Camel-to-Camel’ transmission routes, respectively.

Conclusions

The SEIARD and MMDM model can be used to simulate the transmission of MERS in different countries. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, the transmissibility of MERS was almost the same among hosts (camels) and humans.

Human Body Performance with COVID-19 Affectation According to Virus Specification Based on Biosensor Techniques

Life was once normal before the first announcement of COVID-19's first case in Wuhan, China, and what was slowly spreading became an overnight worldwide pandemic. Ever since the virus spread at the end of 2019, it has been morphing and rapidly adapting to human nature changes which cause difficult conundrums in the efforts of fighting it. Thus, researchers were steered to investigate the virus in order to contain the outbreak considering its novelty and there being no known cure. In contribution to that, this paper extensively reviewed, compared, and analyzed two main points; SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission in humans and detection methods of COVID-19 in the human body. SARS-CoV-2 human exchange transmission methods reviewed four modes of transmission which are Respiratory Transmission, Fecal-Oral Transmission, Ocular transmission, and Vertical Transmission. The latter point particularly sheds light on the latest discoveries and advancements in the aim of COVID-19 diagnosis and detection of SARS-CoV-2 virus associated with this disease in the human body. The methods in this review paper were classified into two categories which are RNA-based detection including RT-PCR, LAMP, CRISPR, and NGS and secondly, biosensors detection including, electrochemical biosensors, electronic biosensors, piezoelectric biosensors, and optical biosensors.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies

A newly emerged respiratory viral disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is also known as pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This pandemic has resulted an unprecedented global health crisis and devastating impact on several sectors of human lives and economies. Fortunately, the average case fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 is below 2%, much lower than that estimated for MERS (34%) and SARS (11%). However, COVID-19 has a much higher transmissibility rate, as evident from the constant increase in the count of infections worldwide. This article explores the reasons behind how COVID-19 was able to cause a global pandemic crisis. The current outbreak scenario and causes of rapid global spread are examined using recent developments in the literature, epidemiological features relevant to public health awareness, and critical perspective of risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Effective pandemic risk mitigation measures have been established and amended against COVID-19 diseases, but there is still much scope for upgrading execution and coordination among authorities in terms of organizational leadership's commitment and diverse range of safety measures, including administrative control measures, engineering control measures, and personal protective equipment (PPE). The significance of containment interventions against the COVID-19 pandemic is now well established; however, there is a need for its effective execution across the globe, and for the improvement of the performance of risk mitigation practices and suppression of future pandemic crises.

Application of bow tie analysis and inherently safer design to the novel coronavirus hazard

This work involves the application of process safety concepts to other fields, specifically bow tie analysis and inherently safer design (ISD) to COVID-19. An analysis framework was designed for stakeholders to develop COVID-19 risk management plans for specific scenarios and receptor groups. This tool is based on the incorporation of the hierarchy of controls (HOC) within bow tie analysis to identify priority barriers. The analysis framework incorporates inherently safer design (ISD) principles allowing stakeholders to assess the adequacy of controls along with the consideration of degradation factors and controls. A checklist has also been developed to help stakeholders identify opportunities to apply the ISD principles of minimization, substitution, moderation, and simplification. This work also considers barrier effectiveness with respect to human and organization factors (HOF) in degradation factors and controls. This paper includes a collection of bow tie elements to develop bow tie diagrams for specific receptor groups and scenarios in Nova Scotia, Canada. The pandemic stage (At-Peak or Post-Peak) and its influence on different scenarios or settings is also considered in this work. Bow tie diagrams were developed for numerous receptor groups; bow tie diagrams modelling a generally healthy individual, a paramedic and a hair salon patron contracting COVID-19 are presented in this work.

Computational designing of a peptide that potentially blocks the entry of SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV

Last decade has witnessed three major pandemics caused by SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV that belong to Coronavirus family. Currently, there are no effective therapies available for corona virus infections. Since the three viruses belong to the same family and share many common features, we can theoretically design a drug that can be effective on all the three of them. In this study, using computational approach, we designed a peptide (Peptide 7) that can bind to the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV thereby preventing the entry of the viruses into the host cell. The peptide inhibitor was designed as a consensus peptide from three different peptides that might individually bind to the RBD of the three viruses. Docking studies and molecular dynamic simulations using Peptide 7 has shown that it binds with higher affinity than the native receptors of the RBD and forms a stable complex thereby preventing further viral-receptor interaction and inhibiting their cellular entry. This effective binding is observed for the three RBDs, despite the Peptide 7 interactions being slightly different. Hence; this peptide inhibitor can be used as a potential candidate for the development of peptide based anti-viral therapy against Corona viruses.

Product of natural evolution (SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2); deadly diseases, from SARS to SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, is a single-stranded RNA virus belonging to the order Nidovirales, family Coronaviridae, and subfamily Coronavirinae. SARS-CoV-2 entry to cellsis initiated by the binding of the viral spike protein (S) to its cellular receptor. The roles of S protein in receptor binding and membrane fusion makes it a prominent target for vaccine development. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence analysis has shown that this virus belongs to the beta-coronavirus genus, which includes Bat SARS-like coronavirus, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. A vaccine should induce a balanced immune response to elicit protective immunity. In this review, we compare and contrast these three important CoV diseases and how they inform on vaccine development.

Where we missed? Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) epidemiology in Saudi Arabia; 2012-2019

MERS-CoV first case was reported on 23rd November 2012 in Saudi Arabia, Since, then MERS has remained on World Health Organization (WHO) Blueprint list and declared pandemic. This study was conducted on MERS lab confirmed cases reported to Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia and WHO for year 2012-2019. The epidemiology was investigated based on infection rate, death rate, case fatality rate, Gender, Age group, and Medical conditions (Comorbid and Symptomatic). The overall median age of infected male was 58 years and of female was 45 years. While average mortality age in male was 60 years and of female was 65 years which is greater than the global average of 50 years. The results also report that specially after age of 40 years in both men and women, chances of infection are more while comorbidities increase the infection rate. The men are more susceptible to infection than women. In case of asymptomatic distribution trend was vice versa with 69.4% women and 30.6% in men. Second, most infected age group was reduced by 20 years in case of men with 47.37% infection for age group of 20-39 years. This was also observed in age-group of 20-39 years for no comorbid cases (men (50%) & women (79%)). This explains MERS-CoV prevalence in Saudi Arabia, as young and healthy population were infected, and acted as carrier and on coming in contact with vulnerable population (Elderly, chronic and comorbid) transferred the infection. Hence, MERS-CoV outbreak kept on happening from time to time over past years. This finding might very well explain the exponential spread of Novel CoV-19 globally, as initial control measures required older people to stay indoors while younger generation brought infection from outside. Further studies are required for epidemiology analysis based on clusters, travel history and specific disease related mortality.

Bat-Borne Coronaviruses in Jordan and Saudi Arabia: A Threat to Public Health?

Emerging infectious diseases are of great concern to public health, as highlighted by the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Such diseases are of particular danger during mass gathering and mass influx events, as large crowds of people in close proximity to each other creates optimal opportunities for disease transmission. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are two countries that have witnessed mass gatherings due to the arrival of Syrian refugees and the annual Hajj season. The mass migration of people not only brings exotic diseases to these regions but also brings new diseases back to their own countries, e.g., the outbreak of MERS in South Korea. Many emerging pathogens originate in bats, and more than 30 bat species have been identified in these two countries. Some of those bat species are known to carry viruses that cause deadly diseases in other parts of the world, such as the rabies virus and coronaviruses. However, little is known about bats and the pathogens they carry in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Here, the importance of enhanced surveillance of bat-borne infections in Jordan and Saudi Arabia is emphasized, promoting the awareness of bat-borne diseases among the general public and building up infrastructure and capability to fill the gaps in public health preparedness to prevent future pandemics.

Epidemiological status of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in 2019: an update from January 1 to March 31, 2019

Purpose

This study represents the current epidemiological status of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) worldwide in the first three months of 2019.

Patients and methods

Full details of the MERS-CoV cases available and published in the disease outbreak news on the WHO website were retrieved. Related details of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV were extracted and analyzed by standard statistical methods.

Results

A total of 107 cases of MERS-CoV, including 18 deaths (overall case fatality rate (CFR), 16.8%; male-specific CFR was 17.5% [14/80] and female-specific CFR was 14.8% [4/27]) were reported to WHO from the National International Health Regulation Focal Points of Saudi Arabia and Oman. The overall mean age was 50±17 years and 80 patients (74.8%) were male. The average time from the onset of the symptoms to the first hospitalization was 3±3.3 days; from the first hospitalization to laboratory confirmation was 3.6±6.5 days; from the onset of symptom to death was 17.5±11.7 days; and the mean length of hospitalization for patients with MERS-CoV was 3.5±3.9 days. Males in comparison to females had a 1.5-fold increased chance (adjusted OR =1.5 [95% CI: 1.3–1.8]) of death related to MERS-CoV infection; 1.05 [95% CI: 1.1–3.3], 1.05 [95% CI: 1.2–2.8] and 1.06 [95% CI: 1.2–2.0] for those who had exposure to camels, camel milk consumption, and close contact with MERS-CoV cases, respectively. Health care workers had 2.4 fold [95% CI: 1.2–3.1] greater odds of death compared to other people.

Conclusion

The knowledge obtained from this study can contribute to the development of a prevention program and early system warning against MERS-CoV infection.

Spatiotemporal Clustering of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Incidence in Saudi Arabia, 2012-2019

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a great public health concern globally. Although 83% of the globally confirmed cases have emerged in Saudi Arabia, the spatiotemporal clustering of MERS-CoV incidence has not been investigated. This study analysed the spatiotemporal patterns and clusters of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases reported in Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and March 2019. Temporal, seasonal, spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses were performed using Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistics to determine the time period and geographical areas with the highest MERS-CoV infection risk. A strongly significant temporal cluster for MERS-CoV infection risk was identified between April 5 and May 24, 2014. Most MERS-CoV infections occurred during the spring season (41.88%), with April and May showing significant seasonal clusters. Wadi Addawasir showed a high-risk spatial cluster for MERS-CoV infection. The most likely high-risk MERS-CoV annual spatiotemporal clusters were identified for a group of cities (n = 10) in Riyadh province between 2014 and 2016. A monthly spatiotemporal cluster included Jeddah, Makkah and Taif cities, with the most likely high-risk MERS-CoV infection cluster occurring between April and May 2014. Significant spatiotemporal clusters of MERS-CoV incidence were identified in Saudi Arabia. The findings are relevant to control the spread of the disease. This study provides preliminary risk assessments for the further investigation of the environmental risk factors associated with MERS-CoV clusters.

Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012-2017

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.

Network Analysis of MERS Coronavirus within Households, Communities, and Hospitals to Identify Most Centralized and Super-Spreading in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012 to 2016

Contact history is crucial during an infectious disease outbreak and vital when seeking to understand and predict the spread of infectious diseases in human populations. The transmission connectivity networks of people infected with highly contagious Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia were assessed to identify super-spreading events among the infected patients between 2012 and 2016. Of the 1379 MERS cases recorded during the study period, 321 (23.3%) cases were linked to hospital infection, out of which 203 (14.7%) cases occurred among healthcare workers. There were 1113 isolated cases while the number of recorded contacts per MERS patient is between 1 (n=210) and 17 (n=1), with a mean of 0.27 (SD = 0.76). Five super-important nodes were identified based on their high number of connected contacts worthy of prioritization (at least degree of 5). The number of secondary cases in each SSE varies (range, 5–17). The eigenvector centrality was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with place of exposure, with hospitals having on average significantly higher eigenvector centrality than other places of exposure. Results suggested that being a healthcare worker has a higher eigenvector centrality score on average than being nonhealthcare workers. Pathogenic droplets are easily transmitted within a confined area of hospitals; therefore, control measures should be put in place to curtail the number of hospital visitors and movements of nonessential staff within the healthcare facility with MERS cases.

MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review

Background

Since Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infection was first reported in 2012, many studies have analysed its transmissibility and severity. However, the methodology and results of these studies have varied, and there has been no systematic review of MERS. This study reviews the characteristics and associated risk factors of MERS.

Method

We searched international (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane) and Korean databases (DBpia, KISS) for English- or Korean-language articles using the terms “MERS” and “Middle East respiratory syndrome”. Only human studies with > 20 participants were analysed to exclude studies with low representation. Epidemiologic studies with information on transmissibility and severity of MERS as well as studies containing MERS risk factors were included.

Result

A total of 59 studies were included. Most studies from Saudi Arabia reported higher mortality (22–69.2%) than those from South Korea (20.4%). While the R₀ value in Saudi Arabia was < 1 in all but one study, in South Korea, the R₀ value was 2.5–8.09 in the early stage and decreased to < 1 in the later stage. The incubation period was 4.5–5.2 days in Saudi Arabia and 6–7.8 days in South Korea. Duration from onset was 4–10 days to confirmation, 2.9–5.3 days to hospitalization, 11–17 days to death, and 14–20 days to discharge. Older age and concomitant disease were the most common factors related to MERS infection, severity, and mortality.

Conclusion

The transmissibility and severity of MERS differed by outbreak region and patient characteristics. Further studies assessing the risk of MERS should consider these factors.

MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Since Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infection was first reported in 2012, many studies have analysed its transmissibility and severity. However, the methodology and results of these studies have varied, and there has been no systematic review of MERS. This study reviews the characteristics and associated risk factors of MERS.

METHOD

We searched international (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane) and Korean databases (DBpia, KISS) for English- or Korean-language articles using the terms "MERS" and "Middle East respiratory syndrome". Only human studies with > 20 participants were analysed to exclude studies with low representation. Epidemiologic studies with information on transmissibility and severity of MERS as well as studies containing MERS risk factors were included.

RESULT

A total of 59 studies were included. Most studies from Saudi Arabia reported higher mortality (22-69.2%) than those from South Korea (20.4%). While the R₀ value in Saudi Arabia was < 1 in all but one study, in South Korea, the R₀ value was 2.5-8.09 in the early stage and decreased to < 1 in the later stage. The incubation period was 4.5-5.2 days in Saudi Arabia and 6-7.8 days in South Korea. Duration from onset was 4-10 days to confirmation, 2.9-5.3 days to hospitalization, 11-17 days to death, and 14-20 days to discharge. Older age and concomitant disease were the most common factors related to MERS infection, severity, and mortality.

CONCLUSION

The transmissibility and severity of MERS differed by outbreak region and patient characteristics. Further studies assessing the risk of MERS should consider these factors.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: Current Therapeutic Options and Potential Targets for Novel Therapies

No specific antivirals are currently available for two emerging infectious diseases, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). A literature search was performed covering pathogenesis, clinical features and therapeutics, clinically developed drugs for repurposing and novel drug targets. This review presents current knowledge on the epidemiology, pathogenesis and clinical features of the SARS and MERS coronaviruses. The rationale for and outcomes with treatments used for SARS and MERS is discussed. The main focus of the review is on drug development and the potential that drugs approved for other indications provide for repurposing. The drugs we discuss belong to a wide range of different drug classes, such as cancer therapeutics, antipsychotics, and antimalarials. In addition to their activity against MERS and SARS coronaviruses, many of these approved drugs have broad-spectrum potential and have already been in clinical use for treating other viral infections. A wealth of knowledge is available for these drugs. However, the information in this review is not meant to guide clinical decisions, and any therapeutic described here should only be used in context of a clinical trial. Potential targets for novel antivirals and antibodies are discussed as well as lessons learned from treatment development for other RNA viruses. The article concludes with a discussion of the gaps in our knowledge and areas for future research on emerging coronaviruses.