The role of under-employment and unemployment in recent birth cohort effects in Australian suicide

Age, period and cohort analysis of suicide trends in Australia, 1907-2020

Background

Suicide rates have been increasing in Australia since the mid-2000s, especially for women aged ≤25 years. We conducted an age-period-cohort study to investigate these recent trends in the context of historical Australian suicide rates.

Methods

Data on annual suicides in Australia from 1907 to 2020 were extracted from the General Record of Incidence of Mortality. We modelled age-specific effects for a reference cohort, after adjustment for period effects.

Findings

We found evidence of age, cohort and period effects. For males, compared to the cohort born in 1946-1950, rates were higher for all cohorts born after this year. The period effect showed peaks in the risk of male suicide in the mid 1960s and the early 1990s, followed by a decline in risk until early 2010, after which the risk began to rise again. For females, compared to the cohort born in 1946-1950, the risk of suicide was higher for all cohorts born after this, with the highest risk for those born in 2006-2010. The period effect for females showed an elevated risk of suicide in the mid 1960s followed by a sharp decline, and an increase in risk after 2009.

Interpretation

Suicide rates in Australia have fluctuated substantially over time and appear to be related to age trends as well as period and cohort trends. Advocacy and policy making tends to focus on contemporaneous changes in suicide rates. However, this study shows that focusing only on year-on-year changes in suicide rates ignores underlying trends for specific population birth-cohorts.

Funding

None.

Mental health over the life course: Evidence for a U-shape?

Mental health problems impose substantial individual and societal costs over the life-cycle. The age-profile of mental health problems is, however, not well understood. Hence, we study the age-profile of mental health while introducing minimal bias to reach identification. Using mental health data from the United States Panel Study of Income Dynamics we apply first difference estimation to derive an unbiased estimate of the second derivative of the age effect as well as an estimate up to a linear period trend of the first derivative. Next, we use a battery of estimators with varying restrictions to approximate the first derivative. Our results suggest that the age profile of mental health in the US is not U-shaped and we find tentative evidence that the age-profile could follow an inverse U-shape where individuals experience a mental health high during their life course. Further analyses, using German and Dutch data, confirm that these results do not only apply to the US, but also to Germany and the Netherlands.

The influence of the age-period-cohort effects on male suicide in Brazil from 1980 to 2019

Suicide is a complex and multi-determined phenomenon. Higher rates are observed in men and are related to multiple risk factors, including mental disorders, financial crises, unemployment, and easy access to highly lethal means of perpetration, such as firearms. We studied the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on total and firearm-related suicides in men in Brazil and its major regions from 1980 to 2019. Death records were extracted from the Brazilian Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System. Estimable functions were used to estimate APC models, through the Epi library of the R statistical program, version 4.2.1. During the study period, Brazil had an average rate of 10.22 deaths per 100,000 men. Among regions, rates ranged from 8.62 (Northeast) to 16.93 (South). The same profile was observed in suicides by firearms. After estimating the APC models, we observed a temporal trend of increasing total suicides for Brazil and regions, except for the South region, where the trend was stationary. The trend was downward for firearm suicides for all locations. A positive gradient was observed in the mortality rate with advancing age for total suicides; and peak incidence between 20-29 years, with subsequent stabilization, for suicides perpetrated by firearms. There was a reduction in the risk of death for suicides perpetrated by firearms in relation to the reference period (1995-1999) for all locations, except in the North region, where the effect was not significant. The younger generations from the 1960s onwards had a higher risk of death from total suicide and a lower risk for those perpetrated by firearms in relation to the reference cohort (1950-1954). We observed a reduction in the mortality trend for suicides perpetrated by firearms, a reduction in the risk of death in the 2000s and for men born after 1960. Our results suggest reducing the risk of death from suicide by firearms in Brazil and regions. However, there is an upward trend in mortality from total suicides in the study period (1980-2019) and for younger cohorts.

Variations in seasonal solar insolation are associated with a history of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder

Background

Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries.

Methods

Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun’s electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries).

Results

This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p < 0.01.

Conclusion

A large change in solar insolation, both between winter and summer and between the minimum and maximum monthly values, may increase the risk of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder. With frequent circadian rhythm dysfunction and suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder, greater understanding of the optimal roles of daylight and electric lighting in circadian entrainment is needed.

The impact of transitions from employment to retirement on suicidal behaviour among older aged Australians

PURPOSE

Transition from employment to retirement may be detrimental to mental health, and associated with suicidal behaviour. This study investigated the association between employment and retirement status and suicidal behaviour among older aged Australians.

METHODS

This study was based on the '45 and Up Study', a large prospective cohort study of participants from New South Wales (Australia) aged 45 years and older (N = 267,153), followed up over the period 2006-2018. The risk of attempted suicide and suicide was compared between categories of employment and retirement status in a series of recurrent event survival analysis models adjusting for identified time variant and invariant confounders.

RESULTS

Compared to those who were employed, the risk of attempted suicide was higher among those who were not in the labour force and not retired (predominantly those who were sick or disabled, or carers) (HR = 1.97-95% CI 1.49-2.62), those who retired involuntarily (HR = 1.35-95% CI 1.03-1.77), and to a lesser extent those unemployed (HR = 1.31-95% CI 0.89-1.92). Risk of attempted suicide among those who retired voluntarily was similar to those who remained employed (HR = 1.09-95% CI 0.82-1.45). A similar pattern was evident for suicide, with a higher risk of suicide among those who were not in the labour force or retired, and those who retired involuntarily, compared to those who remained employed; however, these differences were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Transition from employment to retirement may be an important precipitating factor for suicidal behaviour, affected by current and previous mental health status. Services and programs facilitating continued or re-employment in older age, and adjustment to the transition from employment to retirement may prevent suicidal behaviour.

Employment mismatch from a distributive justice perspective

Purpose

Employment mismatch is a significant problem in many countries. However, little conceptualization research has been conducted on employment mismatch from a social justice perspective. The purpose of this study is to shed light on social justice issues that have been obscured in the human resource development (HRD) literature through the lens of the distributive justice theory.

Design/methodology/approach

This study first reviews the literature to identify the gaps in employment mismatch research by reviewing three relevant bodies of literature: education mismatch, immigrant mismatch and disability mismatch. It then provides a new conceptualization of employment mismatch by examining employment mismatch through the lens of Rawls’ (1971) distributive justice theory.

Findings

The author proposed a framework of healthy employment relations using the constructs of social system design, moral guidance, education reform and individual development. Implications were proposed for research and practice.

Originality/value

The new framework of healthy employment approaches employment mismatch from four aspects embraced by the distributive justice theory. This model can assist HRD professionals and policymakers in responding to the employment mismatch of different populations.

Widening socioeconomic inequalities in Australian suicide, despite recent declines in suicide rates

PURPOSE

This study aims to investigate trends in socioeconomic inequalities of suicide from 1979 to 2013 for Australian males and females aged 15-34 years and 35-64 years.

METHODS

Data on suicides and population were obtained from national registries. An area-based measure of socioeconomic status (SES) was used, and categorized into low, middle, and high SES areas. Suicide rates for each SES groups were estimated using a negative binomial regression model, adjusted for confounders. Socioeconomic inequalities in suicide were assessed using absolute and relative risk of low-to-high SES areas. Secular changes in socioeconomic inequalities were assessed using trend tests for relative risk.

RESULTS

For young males, there was an increase in socioeconomic inequality driven by a significant decrease in suicide rates in high SES areas. For older males, inequality in suicide increased by 29%, which was related to a marked increase in suicide rates in low SES areas. Inequalities in both young and older female suicides also increased. These increases occurred when corresponding suicide rates in high SES areas decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent widening socioeconomic inequalities in Australian suicide have been primarily associated with declines in suicide rates in high SES areas. However, an increasing inequality in older male suicide is linked with low SES. Efforts targeting people from poor areas, especially older males, should be considered when developing suicide prevention strategy.

Confluence of suicide and drug overdose epidemics in young Australian males: common causality?

BACKGROUND

Young adult (aged 20-34) males experience higher mortality than females, and in age groups immediately younger and older, and with considerable variation in death rates over time. Trends in mortality and the cause structure of deaths among young adult Australian males over 1979-2011 are investigated, with a focus on suicide and drug overdose.

METHODS

Mortality data by age for the period 1979 to 2011 and Australian population figures were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Cause of death was investigated using relevant International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, and mortality by cause was examined graphically over time according to various ICD aggregations. Mortality trends were contextualised in relation to labour market changes occurring in Australia from the 1980s to early 2000s.

RESULTS

Although motor vehicle accident (MVA) mortality declined by half between 1980 and 1998 in males, this did not translate into a reduction in total young male mortality because of simultaneous increases in suicide, and drug-related deaths classified as either poisoning (external cause) or drug dependence (mental disorders). When both suicide and drug-related deaths declined concurrently after 1998, total 20-34 year male mortality declined by almost half (46%) over 1998-2011. Declines in external cause mortality accounted for 63% of the total mortality decline in 20-34 year males over 1998-2011. The close temporal coincidence (statistically significant) of increases and declines in suicide and drug-related deaths over a decade suggests related causality.

CONCLUSIONS

The coincidence of young male suicide and drug overdose mortality epidemics over the study period (excess deaths: 5000) suggest related causality such as exposure to common factors, including the labour market liberalisation and de-regulation of the 1990s, and deserves further investigation.

Static metrics of impact for a dynamic problem: The need for smarter tools to guide suicide prevention planning and investment

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention.

METHODS

The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time.

RESULTS

Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period.

CONCLUSION

Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.

Influencing College and Higher Education Choices in Disadvantaged Hispanic High School Students Through a School-Based Health Club

INTRODUCTION

Statistics representing professional health care providers do not adequately reflect the shift in the nation's diverse population. Latinos are significantly underrepresented at all levels of appropriate academic programs critical for entry to health profession careers. This project describes the implementation of a student-run, faculty-facilitated Future Nurse and Health Club at a school (with majority Latino students) to emphasize the importance of higher education in health care. Demographic and psychosocial profiles of club members were also developed to understand community needs.

METHOD

The Future Nurse and Health Club was established in partnership with faculty and researchers representing a university-based nursing program, school officials, and community leaders. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected from club members and their parents using a variety of techniques including questionnaires and focus groups.

RESULTS

The findings of the study highlighted a variety of student- and parent-related factors including poor lifestyle habits and perceptions of support that could potentially influence Latino high school students' interest and progress in health care-related higher education.

CONCLUSION

A school-based health career club involving active participation of parents and students with support from health care professionals such as academic nursing faculty has the potential to simultaneously raise student interest in health-related careers and health needs of their community.

COHORT EFFECTS OF SUICIDE MORTALITY ARE SEX SPECIFIC IN THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED HONG KONG CHINESE POPULATION, 1976-2010

BACKGROUND

To examine temporal variations of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality rate in Hong Kong (HK) from 1976 to 2010, and speculate the macroenvironmental mechanisms of the observed trends.

METHODS

Poisson age-period-cohort modeling was used to delineate the effects of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality. Analysis by sex was also conducted to examine if gender difference exists for suicidal behaviours.

RESULTS

Age-cohort model provides the best fit to the mortality data, implying that the cohort effect is likely to explain more of the contributions to HK's suicide mortality pattern than the period effect. Risk of suicide mortality increases nonlinearly with age and accelerates after age 65-69 for both sexes. Moreover, the cohort effects differ between the sexes-risk of mortality increases continually for men born after 1961, but no change is observed for women since the 1941 cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

With increased risk of suicide mortality in younger cohorts and the age effect of suicide mortality, we may see future increase in suicide mortality as these younger cohorts age. Further studies are needed to clarify plausible associations between broader sociohistorical changes in the population impacting psychological risk factors and suicidal behaviour to better inform suicide prevention strategies.

Working hours and mental health in Australia: evidence from an Australian population-based cohort, 2001-2012

OBJECTIVES

This paper assesses the impact of working less than or more than standard full-time hours on mental health, as well as possible differences in this relationship by gender and skill level.

METHODS

The study design was a longitudinal cohort with 12 annual waves of data collection over the period 2001-2012, yielding a sample of 90,637 observations from 18,420 people. Fixed effects within-person regression was used to control for time invariant confounding. The Mental Component Summary of the Short Form 36 (SF-36) measure was used as the primary outcome measure. Working hours over the preceding year was measured in five categories with standard full-time hours (35-40 h/week) as the reference.

RESULTS

Results indicated that when respondents were working 49-59 h (-0.52, 95% CI -0.74 to -0.29, p<0.001) and 60 h or more (-0.47, 95% CI -0.77 to -0.16, p=0.003) they had worse mental health than when they were working 35-40 h/week (reference). The difference in mental health when working 49-59 h was greater for women than for men. There were greater declines in mental health in relation to longer working hours among persons in higher compared to lower occupational skill levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Study results suggest the need for employers and governments to regulate working hours to reduce the burden of mental ill health in the working population.

Association of moderate and severe food insecurity with suicidal ideation in adults: national survey data from three Canadian provinces

PURPOSE

Although the important public health issues of food insecurity and suicide may be interconnected, they are rarely studied. Using data from a national survey, we examined whether household food insecurity was associated with suicidal ideation after adjusting for relevant covariates.

METHODS

We examined cross-sectional data from three Canadian provinces (n = 5,270) that were derived from the 2007 Canadian Community Health Survey and included adults (18+ years). Suicidal ideation was based on affirmative response to the question of whether or not the participant had seriously considered committing suicide in the previous 12 months. The Household Food Security Survey Module provided measures of moderate (indication of compromise in quality and/or quantity of food consumed) and severe (indication of reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns) food insecurity status. Logistic regression determined associations between food insecurity and suicidal ideation with adjustment for demographics, body mass index, and presence of a mood disorder.

RESULTS

There were differences in the proportion experiencing suicide ideation according to moderate (14.7 vs 10.0 % without suicide ideation) and severe (16.4 vs 7.1 % without suicide ideation) food security (p < 0.001). With covariate adjustment, suicidal ideation was significantly associated with moderate (adjusted OR = 1.32, 95 % CI 1.06-1.64) and severe (adjusted OR = 1.77, 95 % CI 1.42-2.23) food insecurity.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of a robust association between food insecurity and suicidal ideation suggest that interventions targeted at food security may reduce suicide-related morbidity and mortality. Longitudinal investigations that examine various dimensions of food insecurity will advance understanding of etiological pathways involved in food insecurity and suicide.

A modelling tool for policy analysis to support the design of efficient and effective policy responses for complex public health problems

Background

In the design of public health policy, a broader understanding of risk factors for disease across the life course, and an increasing awareness of the social determinants of health, has led to the development of more comprehensive, cross-sectoral strategies to tackle complex problems. However, comprehensive strategies may not represent the most efficient or effective approach to reducing disease burden at the population level. Rather, they may act to spread finite resources less intensively over a greater number of programs and initiatives, diluting the potential impact of the investment. While analytic tools are available that use research evidence to help identify and prioritise disease risk factors for public health action, they are inadequate to support more targeted and effective policy responses for complex public health problems.

Discussion

This paper discusses the limitations of analytic tools that are commonly used to support evidence-informed policy decisions for complex problems. It proposes an alternative policy analysis tool which can integrate diverse evidence sources and provide a platform for virtual testing of policy alternatives in order to design solutions that are efficient, effective, and equitable. The case of suicide prevention in Australia is presented to demonstrate the limitations of current tools to adequately inform prevention policy and discusses the utility of the new policy analysis tool.

Summary

In contrast to popular belief, a systems approach takes a step beyond comprehensive thinking and seeks to identify where best to target public health action and resources for optimal impact. It is concerned primarily with what can be reasonably left out of strategies for prevention and can be used to explore where disinvestment may occur without adversely affecting population health (or equity). Simulation modelling used for policy analysis offers promise in being able to better operationalise research evidence to support decision making for complex problems, improve targeting of public health policy, and offers a foundation for strengthening relationships between policy makers, stakeholders, and researchers.

Suicide in Sri Lanka 1975-2012: age, period and cohort analysis of police and hospital data

Background

Sri Lanka has experienced major changes in its suicide rates since the 1970s, and in 1995 it had one of the highest rates in the world. Subsequent reductions in Sri Lanka’s suicide rates have been attributed to the introduction of restrictions on the availability of highly toxic pesticides. We investigate these changes in suicide rates in relation to age, gender, method specific trends and birth-cohort and period effects, with the aim of informing preventative strategies.

Methods

Secular trends of suicide in relation to age, sex, method, birth-cohort and period effects were investigated graphically using police data (1975–2012). Poisoning case-fatality was investigated using national hospital admission data (2004–2010).

Results

There were marked changes to the age-, gender- and method-specific incidence of suicide over the study period. Year on year declines in rates began in 17–25 year olds in the early 1980s. Reduction in older age groups followed and falls in all age groups occurred after all class I (the most toxic) pesticides were banned. Distinct changes in the age/gender pattern of suicide are observed: in the 1980s suicide rates were highest in 21–35 year old men; by the 2000s, this pattern had reversed with a stepwise increase in male rates with increasing age. Throughout the study period female rates were highest in 17–25 year olds. There has been a rise in suicide by hanging, though this rise is relatively small in relation to the marked decline in self-poisoning deaths. The patterns of suicides are more consistent with a period rather than birth-cohort effect.

Conclusions

The epidemiology of suicide in Sri Lanka has changed noticeably in the last 30 years. The introduction of pesticide regulations in Sri Lanka coincides with a reduction in suicide rates, with evidence of limited method substitution.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-839) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The effects of involuntary job loss on suicide and suicide attempts among young adults: evidence from a matched case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the influence of involuntary job loss on suicide and attempted suicide in young adults.

METHOD

A population-based case-control study of young adults (18-34 years) was conducted in New South Wales, Australia. Cases included both suicides (n=84) and attempts (n=101). A structured interview was conducted with next of kin (for suicide cases) and suicide attempters admitted to hospital. Controls selected from the general population were matched to cases by age and sex. Job dismissal or redundancy (involuntary job loss) in the 12 months before suicide or attempt was the main study variable of interest. Suicide and attempts were modelled separately and in combination as outcomes using conditional logistic regression modelling. The analysis was also adjusted for marital status, socio-economic status and diagnosis of an affective or anxiety disorder.

RESULTS

Following adjustment for other variables, involuntary job loss was associated with an odds ratio of 1.82 for suicide and attempted suicide (combined) (95% CI 0.98 to 3.37; p=0.058). Low socio-economic status was associated with an odds ratio of 3.80 for suicide and attempted suicide (95% CI 2.16 to 6.67; p<0.001) compared to high socio-economic status (after adjustment). Diagnosis of a mental disorder was associated with a 7.87 (95% CI 5.16 to 12.01; p<0.001) odds ratio of suicide and attempted suicide compared to no diagnosis (after adjustment). Involuntary job loss was associated with increased odds of suicide and attempts when these were modelled separately, but results did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Involuntary job loss was associated with increased odds of suicide and attempted suicide. The strength of this relationship was attenuated after adjustment for socio-economic status and mental disorders, which indicates that these may have a stronger influence on suicide than job loss.