1
|
Domingos S, Gaspar R, Marôco J. Exposure to heat wave risks across time and places: Seasonal variations and predictors of feelings of threat across heat wave geographical susceptibility locations. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2024; 44:2240-2269. [PMID: 38514455 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Revised: 12/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/11/2024] [Indexed: 03/23/2024]
Abstract
Vulnerability to heat waves and their negative effects on health vary not only due to individual factors but also due to situational factors, such as time and geography. Hence, we explored seasonal variations and predictors of heat wave feelings of threat across different heat wave geographical susceptibility locations in Portugal. A total of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web-based longitudinal survey: before the summer, during a heat wave in the summer, during the summer, and after the summer. Geographical location was used as an indicator of risk exposure, operationalized as heat wave occurrence susceptibility (low, moderate, high). Heat wave demands and resources perceptions were assessed to compute an indicator of heat wave feelings of threat. During the heat wave, feelings of threat were higher among participants in high-susceptibility locations, with demands outweighing resources perceptions, suggesting greater distress and coping difficulty. Regression analysis suggested that older participants and female participants living in moderate-high-susceptibility locations had greater difficulty in recovering. Heat wave risk perception and positive affect about heat were identified as the most consistent predictors of heat wave feelings of threat, with risk perception increasing and positive affect decreasing such feelings. Participants with (individual and geographical) vulnerability profiles, who had greater difficulty in coping and recovering from heat waves, could benefit from resource-building/enhancing interventions. In a climatic crisis context, monitoring psychological responses to heat waves (e.g., threat) may enable anticipated action to build resilience before, rather than after, the effects become damaging to physical and psychological health.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Domingos
- HEI-Lab: Digital Human-Environment Interaction Labs, Lusófona University, Lisboa, Portugal
- William James Center for Research, ISPA-Instituto Universitário, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Rui Gaspar
- HEI-Lab: Digital Human-Environment Interaction Labs, Lusófona University, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - João Marôco
- William James Center for Research, ISPA-Instituto Universitário, Lisboa, Portugal
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Taylor A, Summers B, Domingos S, Garrett N, Yeomans S. The effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2024; 44:1237-1253. [PMID: 37743536 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Revised: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023]
Abstract
Meteorological services are increasingly moving away from issuing weather warnings based on the exceedance of meteorological thresholds (e.g., windspeed), toward risk-based (or "impact-based") approaches. The UK Met Office's National Severe Weather Warning Service has been a pioneer of this approach, issuing yellow, amber, and red warnings based on an integrated evaluation of information about the likelihood of occurrence and potential impact severity. However, although this approach is inherently probabilistic, probabilistic information does not currently accompany public weather warning communications. In this study, we explored whether providing information about the likelihood and impact severity of forecast weather affected subjective judgments of likelihood, severity, concern, trust in forecast, and intention to take protective action. In a mixed-factorial online experiment, 550 UK residents from 2 regions with different weather profiles were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 Warning Format conditions (Color-only, Text, Risk Matrix) and presented with 3 warnings: high-probability/moderate-impact (amber HPMI); low-probability/high-impact (amber); high-probability/high-impact (red). Amongst those presented with information about probability and impact severity, red high-likelihood/high-impact warnings elicited the strongest ratings on all dependent variables, followed by amber HPMI warnings. Amber low-likelihood/high-impact warnings elicited the lowest perceived likelihood, severity, concern, trust, and intention to take protective responses. Taken together, this indicates that UK residents are sensitive to probabilistic information for amber warnings, and that communicating that severe events are unlikely to occur reduces perceived risk, trust in the warning, and behavioral intention, even though potential impacts could be severe. We discuss the practical implications of this for weather warning communication.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Taylor
- Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Sustainability Research Institute, School for Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Barbara Summers
- Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Samuel Domingos
- William James Centre for Research, ISPA Instituto Universitário, Lisbon, Portugal
- Hei-Lab: Digital Human-Environment Interaction Labs, School of Psychology and Life Sciences, Universidade Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
3
|
Metzger A, Baharav Y, Nichols L, Finke M, Saunders B, Mitchell P, Wellenius GA, Baughman McLeod K, Shickman K. Beliefs and behaviors associated with the first named heat wave in Seville Spain 2022. Sci Rep 2024; 14:9055. [PMID: 38643234 PMCID: PMC11032320 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-59430-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 04/10/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Heat waves pose a substantial and increasing risk to public health. Heat health early warning systems (HHEWSs) and response plans are increasingly being adopted to alert people to the health risks posed by days of extreme heat and recommend protective behaviors. However, evidence regarding the effectiveness of HHEWSs remains limited. We examined the impact of heat wave naming on heat-related beliefs and behaviors to ascertain the potential effectiveness of heat wave naming as a heat health risk communication and management tool. Specifically, we surveyed members of the public exposed to the proMETEO Sevilla HHEWS messaging campaign which in the summer of 2022 applied a name to heat waves considered to pose the greatest risk to public health. During the heat season we evaluated, the proMETEO Sevilla HHEWS campaign applied a name to one heat wave, heat wave "Zoe". Our analysis of the post-survey of 2022 adults indicated that the 6% of participants who recalled the name Zoe unaided reported greater engagement in heat wave safety behaviors and more positive beliefs about naming heat waves and their local governments' heat wave response. These results provide initial evidence for potential utility in naming heat waves as part of HHEWSs and HAPs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Yuval Baharav
- Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center at the Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Lilly Nichols
- Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center at the Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, USA.
- Center for Climate and Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Megan Finke
- Center for Climate and Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | - Gregory A Wellenius
- Center for Climate and Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Kathy Baughman McLeod
- Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center at the Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Kurt Shickman
- Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center at the Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Nezlek JB, Cypryańska M. Prosociality and Personality: Perceived Efficacy of Behaviors Mediates Relationships between Personality and Self-Reported Climate Change Mitigation Behavior. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:3637. [PMID: 36834330 PMCID: PMC9961638 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20043637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The included studies examined the relationship between climate change mitigation behavior (CCB) and personality. In Study 1, 1089 US collegians completed a measure of the Big Five and indicated how often they engaged in five CCBs. Engaging in each CCB was regressed on the Big Five. These analyses found openness was positively related to all five CCBs, neuroticism was positively related to four of five CCBs, and extraversion was positively related to three CCBs. In Study 2, 1688 US collegians completed the same measures as in Study 1 with two additional CCBs. They also indicated how efficacious they thought each CCB was. Each CCB was regressed on the Big Five. These results largely replicated those of Study 1 and also found that conscientiousness was positively related to five of seven CCBs. Mediational analyses found that all relationships between personality factors and CCB were mediated by the perceived efficacy of the CCB. The present results suggest that efforts to increase climate change mitigation behavior need to take into account the perceived efficacy of such behaviors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- John B. Nezlek
- Center for Climate Action and Social Transformations, Institute of Psychology, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, ul. Chodakowska 19/31, 03-815 Warsaw, Poland
- Department of Psychological Sciences, College of William & Mary, Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA 23185, USA
| | - Marzena Cypryańska
- Center for Climate Action and Social Transformations, Institute of Psychology, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, ul. Chodakowska 19/31, 03-815 Warsaw, Poland
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Sayili U, Siddikoglu E, Pirdal BZ, Uygur A, Toplu FS, Can G. The heat wave knowledge, awareness, practice and behavior scale: Scale development, validation and reliability. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0279259. [PMID: 36542649 PMCID: PMC9770401 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0279259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 12/03/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Heat waves are extreme weather and climate events that threaten public health by increasing morbidity and mortality. To reduce the health effects of heat waves, it is necessary to increase the knowledge level of the public, conduct awareness and protection activities and monitor these activity outcomes. The present study aimed to develop and validate a Turkish language scale of heat wave knowledge, awareness, practice and behavior for Turkish nationality. After item generation and creating dimensions, content validity analysis was performed. To evaluate the validity and reliability of the knowledge construct, the difficulty index, discriminant index and Kuder Richardson 20 (KR20) were used. The validity and reliability of the awareness, practice and behavior constructs were evaluated with exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, and Cronbach's alpha was used. The 15 items had a good difficulty, discrimination index and KR20 in the knowledge construct. The 14 items were yielded in EFA; 13 items were retained in CFA, and Cronbach's alpha values of 0.878, 0.768, 0.855, and 0.858 were obtained for total items, practice, awareness and behavior, respectively. Eventually, a Turkish language scale was developed that is reliable and valid for assessing heat wave knowledge, awareness, practice and behavior.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ugurcan Sayili
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Türkiye
- Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Institute of Graduate Studies in Health Sciences, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Türkiye
- * E-mail:
| | - Esin Siddikoglu
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Türkiye
| | | | - Abdulkerim Uygur
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Türkiye
| | - Ferdane Seyma Toplu
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Türkiye
| | - Gunay Can
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Türkiye
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Ho HC, Lau K, Ren C, Wang D. Systematic identification of heat events associated with emergency admissions to enhance the heat-health action plan in a subtropical city: a data-driven approach. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:89273-89282. [PMID: 35849238 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-21963-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), a heat-health action plan should address various impacts of hazards at different levels, including an early warning system to monitor risks and behaviour enhancement to increase disaster preparedness. It is necessary to comply with guidelines regarding heat duration/intensity. In this study, we developed a data-driven approach to rapidly and systematically estimate the impacts of various heat events on emergency admissions among the adult population (n = 7,086,966) in Hong Kong in order to enhance the heat-health action plan. Immediate, short-term, and long-term impacts determined by 1-day, 4-day, and 8-day windows were estimated to identify specific heat events suitable for early warnings. In addition, underestimated risk, determined by a continuous increase in heat risk after days without significant emergency admissions, was estimated to evaluate potential maladaptive behaviours among a specific subpopulation. Based on age- and gender-specific analyses, 1D, 1D1N, and 2D2N were observed to have a stronger immediate impact on emergency admissions. 1D1N and 2D2N also showed notable short-term and long-term impacts. Based on heat vulnerability factors (age and gender), 2D2N was a higher-priority extreme heat event for early warning measures than 1D1N. Furthermore, men aged 19 to 64 had the highest underestimated risk. Specifically, they had IRR values of 1.113 [1.087, 1.140], 1.061 [1.035, 1.087], and 1.069 [1.043, 1.095] during lag days 3-5 of 3D2N, respectively, possibly due to a lack of adaptive behaviour. By adopting our approach, the duration of heat events with significant health impacts can be identified in order to further enhance relevant heat stress information. This framework can be applied to other cities with a similar background for rapid assessment.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Anaesthesiology, School of Clinical Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
| | - Kevin Lau
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden.
| | - Chao Ren
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Dan Wang
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Ontario Tech University, Oshawa, Canada
- Institute for Disability and Rehabilitation Research, Oshawa, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Ratwatte P, Wehling H, Kovats S, Landeg O, Weston D. Factors associated with older adults' perception of health risks of hot and cold weather event exposure: A scoping review. Front Public Health 2022; 10:939859. [PMID: 36438241 PMCID: PMC9686383 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.939859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Hot and cold weather events are increasingly becoming a global burden resulting in premature and preventable morbidity and mortality, particularly in vulnerable groups such as older people and people with chronic health conditions. However, risk perception regarding weather is generally poor among vulnerable groups which often acts as a barrier to the uptake of critical health-protective behaviours. A more cohesive understanding of determinants of risk perception is needed to inform public health risk communication and behaviour change interventions that promote protective health behaviours. This scoping literature review aimed to understand factors influencing perception of personal health risks in vulnerable groups as a result of exposure to hot and cold weather events. Methods A five-stage scoping review framework was followed. Searches were run across Medline, PsychInfo, Web of Science and EMBASE. Papers were included if they provided rationale for risk perceptions in vulnerable groups in indoor/domestic environments and focussed on samples from OECD countries. Results In total, 13 out of 15,554 papers met the full inclusion criteria. The majority of papers focused on hot weather events: one study exclusively examined cold weather events and one study addressed both cold and hot weather events. Included papers focused on older adults aged 65+ years. The papers identified eight factors that were associated with older adults' personal health risk perception of hot and cold weather events: (1) Knowledge of the relationship between hot/cold weather and health risks, (2) presence of comorbidities, (3) age and self-identity, (4) perceived weather severity, (5) Beliefs associated with regional climate, (6) past experience with weather, (7) misconceptions of effectiveness of protective behaviours, and (8) external locus of control. Conclusions Future research should explore risk communication methods by implementing the identified risk perception determinants from this review into health protection interventions targeting older adults. Further understanding is needed regarding risk perceptions in non-elderly vulnerable groups, for examples individuals with chronic diseases or disabilities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Priyanjali Ratwatte
- Behavioural Science and Insights Unit (BSIU), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Porton Down, United Kingdom
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Porton Down, United Kingdom
- Behavioural Science and Evaluation, Health Protection Research Unit (BSE HPRU), London, United Kingdom
| | - Helena Wehling
- Behavioural Science and Insights Unit (BSIU), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Porton Down, United Kingdom
- Behavioural Science and Evaluation, Health Protection Research Unit (BSE HPRU), London, United Kingdom
| | - Sari Kovats
- Environmental Change and Health, Health Protection Research Unit (ECH HPRU), Chilton, United Kingdom
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
| | - Owen Landeg
- Behavioural Science and Evaluation, Health Protection Research Unit (BSE HPRU), London, United Kingdom
- Extreme Events and Health Protection, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Porton Down, United Kingdom
| | - Dale Weston
- Behavioural Science and Insights Unit (BSIU), UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Porton Down, United Kingdom
- Behavioural Science and Evaluation, Health Protection Research Unit (BSE HPRU), London, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Palinkas LA, Hurlburt MS, Fernandez C, De Leon J, Yu K, Salinas E, Garcia E, Johnston J, Rahman MM, Silva SJ, McConnell RS. Vulnerable, Resilient, or Both? A Qualitative Study of Adaptation Resources and Behaviors to Heat Waves and Health Outcomes of Low-Income Residents of Urban Heat Islands. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:11090. [PMID: 36078804 PMCID: PMC9517765 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191711090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Revised: 08/19/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Little is known of how low-income residents of urban heat islands engage their knowledge, attitudes, behaviors, and resources to mitigate the health impacts of heat waves. In this qualitative study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 40 adults in two such neighborhoods in Los Angeles California to explore their adaptation resources and behaviors, the impacts of heat waves on physical and mental health, and threat assessments of future heat waves. Eighty percent of participants received advanced warning of heat waves from television news and social media. The most common resource was air conditioning (AC) units or fans. However, one-third of participants lacked AC, and many of those with AC engaged in limited use due primarily to the high cost of electricity. Adaptation behaviors include staying hydrated, remaining indoors or going to cooler locations, reducing energy usage, and consuming certain foods and drinks. Most of the participants reported some physical or mental health problem or symptom during heat waves, suggesting vulnerability to heat waves. Almost all participants asserted that heat waves were likely to increase in frequency and intensity with adverse health effects for vulnerable populations. Despite limited resources, low-income residents of urban heat islands utilize a wide range of behaviors to minimize the severity of health impacts, suggesting they are both vulnerable and resilient to heat waves.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lawrence A. Palinkas
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Michael S. Hurlburt
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Cecilia Fernandez
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Jessenia De Leon
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Kexin Yu
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Erika Salinas
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Erika Garcia
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Jill Johnston
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Md. Mostafijur Rahman
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Sam J. Silva
- Department of Earth Sciences, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Rob S. McConnell
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Erens B, Williams L, Exley J, Ettelt S, Manacorda T, Hajat S, Mays N. Public attitudes to, and behaviours taken during, hot weather by vulnerable groups: results from a national survey in England. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1631. [PMID: 34488695 PMCID: PMC8422617 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11668-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 08/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Hot weather leads to increased illness and deaths. The Heatwave Plan for England (HWP) aims to protect the population by raising awareness of the dangers of hot weather, especially for those most vulnerable. Individuals at increased risk to the effects of heat include older adults, particularly 75+, and those with specific chronic conditions, such as diabetes, respiratory and heart conditions. The HWP recommends specific protective actions which relate to five heat-health alert levels (levels 0–4). This study examines the attitudes to hot weather of adults in England, and the protective measures taken during a heatwave. Methods As part of a wider evaluation of the implementation and effects of the HWP, a survey (n = 3153) and focus groups, a form of group interview facilitated by a researcher, were carried out after the June 2017 level 3 heat-health alert. Survey respondents were categorised into three groups based on their age and health status: ‘vulnerable’ (aged 75+), ‘potentially vulnerable’ (aged 18–74 in poor health) and ‘not vulnerable’ (rest of the adult population) to hot weather. Multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with these groups taking protective measures. In-person group discussion, focused on heat-health, were carried out with 25 people, mostly aged 75 + . Results Most vulnerable and potentially vulnerable adults do not consider themselves at risk of hot weather and are unaware of the effectiveness of important protective behaviours. Only one-quarter of (potentially) vulnerable adults reported changing their behaviour as a result of hearing hot weather-related health advice during the level 3 alert period. Focus group findings showed many vulnerable adults were more concerned about the effects of the sun’s ultra-violet radiation on the skin than on the effects of hot temperatures on health. Conclusions Current public health messages appear to be insufficient, given the low level of (potentially) vulnerable adults changing their behaviour during hot weather. In the context of increasingly warmer summers in England due to climate change, public health messaging needs to convince (potentially) vulnerable adults of all the risks of hot weather (not just effects of sunlight on the skin) and of the importance of heat protective measures. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11668-x.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bob Erens
- Policy Innovation & Evaluation Research Unit, Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Lorraine Williams
- Policy Innovation & Evaluation Research Unit, Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Josephine Exley
- Policy Innovation & Evaluation Research Unit, Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Stefanie Ettelt
- Policy Innovation & Evaluation Research Unit, Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Tommaso Manacorda
- Policy Innovation & Evaluation Research Unit, Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Public Health, Environments & Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Nicholas Mays
- Policy Innovation & Evaluation Research Unit, Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Pogačar T, Žnidaršič Z, Kajfež Bogataj L, Črepinšek Z. Steps Towards Comprehensive Heat Communication in the Frame of a Heat Health Warning System in Slovenia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E5829. [PMID: 32806556 PMCID: PMC7459531 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Occupational heat stress has an important negative impact on the well-being, health and productivity of workers and should; therefore, be recognized as a public health issue in Europe. There is no comprehensive heat health warning system in Slovenia combining public health measures with meteorological forecasts. The aim of this research was to provide insight into the development of such a system in Slovenia, turning the communication from the current meteoalarm into a broader system that has more information for different social groups. To achieve this goal, the following steps were used: Analysis of summer temperatures and issued meteoalarms, a survey of the general knowledge about heat among the public, organization and management of two stakeholder symposia, and a final survey on workers' opinions on heat stress and measures, supplemented by interviews with employers. Summer average daily temperature distributions in Slovenia changed during the investigated period (1961-2019) and the mean values increased over time by 2-3 °C. Additionally, the number of days with fulfilled yellow (potentially dangerous) and especially orange (dangerous) meteoalarm conditions increased significantly after 1990. The survey of the general public about heat stress and warnings showed that efforts to raise awareness of heat issues need to be intensified and that public health measures should effectively target vulnerable groups. Stakeholder symposia and further surveys have shown that awareness and understanding of the negative effects of heat stress on health and productivity are still quite low, so effective ways of disseminating information to different sectors while striking the best balance between efficiency, feasibility and economic cost have to be found.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tjaša Pogačar
- Centre of Agrometeorology, Department of Agronomy, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; (L.K.B.); (Z.Č.)
| | - Zala Žnidaršič
- Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, University of Ljubljana, Jadranska 19, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia;
| | - Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
- Centre of Agrometeorology, Department of Agronomy, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; (L.K.B.); (Z.Č.)
| | - Zalika Črepinšek
- Centre of Agrometeorology, Department of Agronomy, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; (L.K.B.); (Z.Č.)
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Lam HCY, Huang Z, Liu S, Guo C, Goggins WB, Chan EYY. Personal Cold Protection Behaviour and Its Associated Factors in 2016/17 Cold Days in Hong Kong: A Two-Year Cohort Telephone Survey Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17051672. [PMID: 32143415 PMCID: PMC7084253 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17051672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2020] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 02/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Background: Despite larger health burdens attributed to cold than heat, few studies have examined personal cold protection behaviours (PCPB). This study examined PCPB during cold waves and identified the associated factors in a subtropical city for those without central heating system. Methods: A cohort telephone survey was conducted in Hong Kong during a colder cold wave (2016) and a warmer cold wave (2017) among adults (≥15). Socio-demographic information, risk perception, self-reported adverse health effects and patterns of PCPB during cold waves were collected. Associated factors of PCPB in 2017 were identified using multiple logistic regression. Results: The cohort included 429 subjects. PCPB uptake rates were higher during the colder cold wave (p < 0.0005) except for ensuring indoor ventilation. Of the vulnerable groups, 63.7% had low self-perceived health risks. High risk perception, experience of adverse health effects during the 2016 cold wave, females and older groups were positive associated factors of PCPB in 2017 (p < 0.05). Conclusions: PCPB changed with self-risk perception. However vulnerable groups commonly underestimated their own risk. Indoor ventilation may be a concern during cold days in settings that are less prepared for cold weather. Targeted awareness-raising promotion for vulnerable groups and practical strategies for ensuring indoor ventilation are needed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Holly Ching Yu Lam
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, Emmanuel Kaye Building, London SW3 6LR, UK;
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China; (Z.H.); (S.L.); (C.G.)
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;
| | - Zhe Huang
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China; (Z.H.); (S.L.); (C.G.)
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;
| | - Sida Liu
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China; (Z.H.); (S.L.); (C.G.)
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;
| | - Chunlan Guo
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China; (Z.H.); (S.L.); (C.G.)
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;
| | - William Bernard Goggins
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;
| | - Emily Ying Yang Chan
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China; (Z.H.); (S.L.); (C.G.)
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +852-2252-8411
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Li J, Xu X, Yang J, Liu Z, Xu L, Gao J, Liu X, Wu H, Wang J, Yu J, Jiang B, Liu Q. Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2017; 156:657-664. [PMID: 28463825 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.04.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2016] [Revised: 04/17/2017] [Accepted: 04/18/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean), and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. METHODS Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and Tmax/Tmin/Tmean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. RESULTS Tmax/Tmean/Tmin thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in Tmax/Tmean/Tmin above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. CONCLUSION High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jing Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China; Center for Climate Change and Health, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Xin Xu
- Department of Dentistry, Affiliated Hospital, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Jun Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Zhidong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Lei Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Jinghong Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Xiaobo Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Haixia Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Jun Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Jieqiong Yu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Baofa Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China; Center for Climate Change and Health, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China; Center for Climate Change and Health, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China.
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Decision-Making and Building Resilience to Nexus Shocks Locally: Exploring Flooding and Heatwaves in the UK. SUSTAINABILITY 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/su9050838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
|
14
|
Demski C, Capstick S, Pidgeon N, Sposato RG, Spence A. Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2017; 140:149-164. [PMID: 32355377 PMCID: PMC7175646 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1837-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2016] [Accepted: 10/03/2016] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
The winter of 2013/2014 saw a series of severe storms hit the UK, leading to widespread flooding, a major emergency response and extensive media exposure. Previous research indicates that experiencing extreme weather events has the potential to heighten engagement with climate change, however the process by which this occurs remains largely unknown, and establishing a clear causal relationship from experience to perceptions is methodologically challenging. The UK winter flooding offered a natural experiment to examine this question in detail. We compare individuals personally affected by flooding (n = 162) to a nationally representative sample (n = 975). We show that direct experience of flooding leads to an overall increased salience of climate change, pronounced emotional responses and greater perceived personal vulnerability and risk perceptions. We also present the first evidence that direct flooding experience can give rise to behavioural intentions beyond individual sustainability actions, including support for mitigation policies, and personal climate adaptation in matters unrelated to the direct experience.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christina Demski
- Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT UK
| | - Stuart Capstick
- Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT UK
| | - Nick Pidgeon
- Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT UK
| | - Robert Gennaro Sposato
- Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT UK
| | - Alexa Spence
- Horizon Digital Economy Research/School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2TU UK
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Bruine de Bruin W, Lefevre CE, Taylor AL, Dessai S, Fischhoff B, Kovats S. Promoting protection against a threat that evokes positive affect: The case of heat waves in the United Kingdom. J Exp Psychol Appl 2016; 22:261-71. [PMID: 27268282 PMCID: PMC5015596 DOI: 10.1037/xap0000083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Heat waves can cause death, illness, and discomfort, and are expected to become more frequent as a result of climate change. Yet, United Kingdom residents have positive feelings about hot summers that may undermine their willingness to protect themselves against heat. We randomly assigned United Kingdom participants to 1 of 3 intervention strategies intended to promote heat protection, or to a control group. The first strategy aimed to build on the availability heuristic by asking participants to remember high summer temperatures, but it elicited thoughts of pleasantly hot summer weather. The second strategy aimed to build on the affect heuristic by evoking negative affect about summer temperatures, but it evoked thoughts of unpleasantly cold summer weather. The third strategy combined these 2 approaches and succeeded in evoking thoughts of unpleasantly hot summer weather. Across 2 experiments, the third (combined) strategy increased participants' expressed intentions to protect against heat compared with the control group, while performing at least as well as the 2 component strategies. We discuss implications for developing interventions about other "pleasant hazards." (PsycINFO Database Record
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Carmen E Lefevre
- Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds
| | - Andrea L Taylor
- Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds
| | | | - Baruch Fischhoff
- Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
| | - Sari Kovats
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Khare S, Hajat S, Kovats S, Lefevre CE, de Bruin WB, Dessai S, Bone A. Heat protection behaviour in the UK: results of an online survey after the 2013 heatwave. BMC Public Health 2015; 15:878. [PMID: 26357923 PMCID: PMC4566312 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-2181-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2015] [Accepted: 08/24/2015] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Heatwave Plan for England provides guidance for personal and home protection measures during heatwaves. Although studies in the USA, Australia and Europe have surveyed heat-related behaviours during heatwaves, few have been conducted in the UK. This study assesses personal and housing (at-home) behaviour and housing characteristics of the UK population during the 2013 heatwave. METHODS This paper analyses data from 1497 respondents of an online survey on heat protection measures and behaviour. Participants were asked questions about their behaviour during the 2013 heatwave, the characteristics of their current housing as well as about any negative health outcomes experienced due to the hot weather. We used multinomial logit regression to analyse personal and home heat protection behaviour and logistic regression to analyse characteristics of participants' current home (installed air conditioner, curtains etc.). We stratified the outcomes by age, sex, ethnicity, income, education and regional location. RESULTS In 2013, for all heat-related illness (except tiredness), a higher proportion of those in the younger age groups reported symptoms compared with those in the older age groups. Women, higher income groups and those with higher education levels were found to be more likely to report always/often taking personal heat protective measures. The elderly were less likely to take some personal and home protective measures but were more likely to live in insulated homes and open windows at night to keep their home cool. CONCLUSION Our study has found a high level of awareness of the actions to take during heatwaves in the UK, and has identified important demographic indicators of sections of the UK population that might benefit from additional or more targeted information. The health agencies should attempt to provide better information about heatwaves to those vulnerable (elderly, those at risk living in London, low income earners) or identify any barriers that might be preventing them from undertaking protective behaviour.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Swarna Khare
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Sari Kovats
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Carmen E Lefevre
- Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building, The University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Wändi Bruine de Bruin
- Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building, The University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Suraje Dessai
- Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Angie Bone
- Extreme Events and Health Protection, Centre for Radiation, Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Wellington House 133-155 Waterloo Road, London, SE1 8UG, UK.
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Glass K, Tait PW, Hanna EG, Dear K. Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:5241-55. [PMID: 25993102 PMCID: PMC4454965 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120505241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2015] [Revised: 05/11/2015] [Accepted: 05/11/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn Glass
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia.
| | - Peter W Tait
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia.
| | - Elizabeth G Hanna
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia.
| | - Keith Dear
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan 215316, China.
| |
Collapse
|