Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) predicts postoperative complications after radical cystectomy

INTRODUCTION

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system in predicting postoperative complications following radical cystectomy (RC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-center retrospective study, we analyzed data from patients who underwent open RC for muscle-invasive bladder cancer by a single surgeon between 2008 and 2023. Cases involving cystectomy for non-urothelial carcinoma or urinary diversion other than ileal conduit were excluded. We recorded patient demographics, body mass index (BMI), history of abdominal/retroperitoneal surgery, ASA score, performance status (PS), and pre-existing conditions, such as hypertension (HT), coronary artery disease (CAD), diabetes mellitus (DM), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Intraoperative data included surgery duration, blood loss, and need for blood transfusion. Post-operative complications were classified using the Clavien-Dindo system. E-PASS score was calculated using the Preoperative Risk Score (PRS), Surgical Stress Score (SSS), and Comprehensive Risk Score (CRS).

RESULTS

The study included 252 patients. Patients who experienced postoperative complications had higher age, BMI, prior surgical history, ASA score, PS, and rates of CAD, HT, DM, and CKD compared to those who did not. Surgery duration, blood loss, blood transfusion requirement, and E-PASS scores (PRS, SSS, CRS) were also higher in this group. The ROC curve for CRS revealed a predictive cutoff of 0.4911 (AUC = 0.905, p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for postoperative complications included high BMI (p = 0.031), longer surgery duration (p < 0.001), HT (p = 0.042), CKD (p = 0.017), and CRS > 0.4911 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

E-PASS system effectively predicts postoperative complications in RC patients.

Use of thoracic fluid content for prediction of fluid balance and postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery: an observational study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The harmful effects of excess fluids frequently manifest in the lungs. Thoracic fluid content (TFC) is a variable provided by the STARLINGTM bioreactance monitor, which represents the total volume of fluid in the chest. The objective is to analyse the association between the variation in TFC values (TFCd0%) at 24 h postoperatively, postoperative fluid balance, and postoperative pulmonary complications.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Prospective and analytical observational study. Patients scheduled for major abdominal surgery at a tertiary teaching hospital were included. They were monitored during the intervention and the first 24 postoperative hours with the monitor. STARLINGTM, measuring TFC and its variation in different stages of the perioperative period. Serial lung ultrasounds were performed and postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded. Logistic regression was performed to predict the occurrence of atelectasis and pulmonary congestion. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to verify the association between TFC and fluid balance.

RESULTS

50 patients were analyzed. TFCd0% measured on the morning of the first postoperative day increased by a median of 27.1% [IQR: 20.3-37.5] and was correlated at r = 0.44 with the postoperative balance of 677 ml [IQR: 125.5-1,412]. Increased TFC was related to a higher risk of atelectasis (OR = 1.24) and pulmonary congestion (OR = 1.3).

CONCLUSIONS

TFCd0% measured 24 h after surgery presents a moderate correlation with postoperative fluid balance. Its increase is a risk factor for the appearance of postoperative pulmonary complications.

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system for predicting complications following abdominal surgery: A meta-analysis spanning 2004 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.

AIM

To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system's efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery.

METHODS

A systematic search of published studies was conducted, yielding 17 studies with pertinent data. Parameters such as preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), comprehensive risk score (CRS), postoperative complications, postoperative mortality, and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis. Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables, with χ2 tests assessing heterogeneity (P value).

RESULTS

Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications [mean difference and 95% confidence interval (CI) of PRS: 0.10 (0.05-0.15); SSS: 0.04 (0.001-0.08); CRS: 0.19 (0.07-0.31)]. Following the exclusion of low-quality studies, results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to heterogeneity in CRS analysis. Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates [odds ratio (OR) (95%CI): 3.01 (1.83-4.95)], with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality [OR (95%CI): 15.49 (3.75-64.01)].

CONCLUSION

In summary, postoperative complications in abdominal surgery, as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system, are consistently linked to elevated PRS, SSS, and CRS scores. High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality. This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery, underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) Predicts Postoperative Major Complications After Hepato-Pancreato Biliary Surgery in the Elderly

BACKGROUND

As society ages, an increasing number of elderly patients require hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery. We investigated the risk factors for complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery using surgical risk scoring models.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 184 elderly patients (≥ 65 years old) who underwent HPB surgery, including the liver, pancreas, bile duct, and/or gallbladder resection, with exemption to simple cholecystectomy between January 2017 and December 2019. The surgical risk scoring models used included the Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and Geriatric 8 (G8). We evaluated the correlations between the scores and severe complications. Complications were classified as severe (Clavien-Dindo classification [C-D] ≥ III) or non-severe (C-D ≤ II).

RESULTS

Complications occurred in 78 patients (24 C-D ≥ III, 54 C-D ≤ II). Preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were significantly higher in patients with C-D ≥ IIIa than in those with C-D ≤ II. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that PRS (P = 0.01) and SSS (P = 0.04) were independent predictive factors for severe complications. However, the POSSUM and G8 models showed no significant correlations to severe complications.

CONCLUSION

E-PASS is a useful model for predicting complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery.

Predictive Factors for Anastomotic Leakage after Laparoscopic and Open Total Gastrectomy: A Systematic Review

The aim of this systematic review is to identify patient-related, perioperative and technical risk factors for esophago-jejunal anastomotic leakage (EJAL) in patients undergoing total gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC). A comprehensive literature search of PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases was performed. Studies providing factors predictive of EJAL by uni- and multivariate analysis or an estimate of association between EJAL and related risk factors were included. All studies were assessed for methodological quality, and a narrative synthesis of the results was performed. A total of 16 studies were included in the systematic review, with a total of 42,489 patients who underwent gastrectomy with esophago-jejunal anastomosis. Age, BMI, impaired respiratory function, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), alcohol consumption, chronic renal failure, diabetes and mixed-type histology were identified as patient-related risk factors for EJAL at multivariate analysis. Likewise, among operative factors, laparoscopic approach, anastomosis type, additional organ resection, blood loss, intraoperative time and surgeon experience were found to be predictive factors for the development of EJAL. In clinical setting, we are able to identify several risk factors for EJAL. This can improve the recognition of higher-risk patients and their outcomes.

Surgical Stress Evaluation of Left Lateral Sectionectomy Based on Skeletal Muscle Catabolism

BACKGROUND

By examining skeletal muscle catabolism, we aimed to investigate whether laparoscopic left lateral sectionectomy (LLS) is less invasive compared with the open approach.

METHODS

The psoas muscle index (PMI) was measured using computed tomography images before and after surgery. We assessed the relationship between the perioperative PMI reduction rate and the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) score and then compared the PMI reduction rates associated with different approaches.

RESULTS

Of the 31 patients, 13 and 18 underwent the open and laparoscopic approaches, respectively. A strong correlation was observed between the PMI reduction rates and surgical stress scores (SSS) (r=0.561, P<0.01). The laparoscopic approach was associated with a significantly lower PMI reduction rate (P<0.01) and SSS (P<0.01) than the open approach.

CONCLUSION

Laparoscopic LLS should be less invasive than the open approach from the perspective of not only perioperative outcomes but also skeletal muscle catabolism.

Feasibility of E-PASS score to predict postoperative complications in laparoscopic nephrectomy

PURPOSE

To evaluate the usefulness of E-PASS score to predict postoperative complications after laparoscopic nephrectomy.

METHODS

Between 2008 and 2020, 424 patients (179 patients: simple nephrectomy, 158 patients: radical nephrectomy, 87 patients: donor nephrectomy) who underwent laparoscopic nephrectomy in our clinic, were included in the study. Patient groups separated according to the presence of postoperative complications were compared retrospectively regarding demographic, clinical, intraoperative, and postoperative data, comorbidities, and E-PASS scores (PRS, SSS, and CRS). The relationship between postoperative complications and E-PASS scores was examined.

RESULTS

Postoperative complications occurred in 43 (10.1%) of the patients. Age, previous abdominal/retroperitoneal surgery, radical nephrectomy rate of surgeries, operation time, amount of bleeding, need for blood transfusion, rate of conversion from laparoscopic surgery to open surgery, hospitalization time, E-PASS PRS, SSS, and CRS were statistically significantly higher in the group with postoperative complications. The cutoff value of the E-PASS CRS was - 0.2996 to predict the development of postoperative complications (AUC = 0.706; 95% CI 0.629-0.783; p < 0.001). According to multivariate analysis, presence of previous abdominal/retroperitoneal surgery (OR 2.977; 95% CI 1.502-5.899; p = 0.002), laparoscopic radical nephrectomy (OR 2.518; 95% CI 1.224-5.179; p = 0.012), conversion from laparoscopic surgery to open surgery (OR 4.869; 95% CI 1.046-22.669; p = 0.044) and E-PASS CRS > - 0.2996 (OR 2.816; 95% CI 1.321-6.004; p = 0.007) were found to be independent risk factors predicting postoperative complications.

CONCLUSION

The E-PASS scoring system is an effective and convenient system for predicting postoperative complications after laparoscopic nephrectomy.

Total Risk Points Predict Short- and Long-term Outcomes Following Colorectal Cancer Resection in Older Patients

BACKGROUND/AIM

Estimation of physiological ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) is reported to be useful as a predictor of postoperative complications and poor long-term survival after colorectal cancer. The total risk points (TRP) system is a simplified scoring system of E-PASS, and this study evaluated the utility of TRP in colorectal cancer resection in older patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinicopathological data of 237 patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal cancer from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. The data were compared between a high TRP group (≥1,000, n=38) and a low TRP group (<1,000, n=199). We also conducted an analysis to determine risk factors of postoperative complications and poor long-term survival.

RESULTS

TRP showed statistically significant correlations with the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of E-PASS (R=0.999, p<0.001). The high TRP group experienced postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥2) more frequently (42.1% vs. 11.1%, p<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that high TRP [odds ratio (OR)=5.214; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)=2.338-11.629; p<0.001] and age ≥80 (OR=2.760; 95%CI=1.308-5.826; p=0.008) were independent predictors of postoperative complications. Overall survival (OS) was poor in the high TRP group (5-year OS, 61.2% vs. 82.6%, p<0.001) compared with the low TRP group, and in the low prognostic nutritional index (<45) group (5-year OS, 70.9% vs. 86.3%, p=0.013) compared with the high prognostic nutritional index (≥45) group. Multivariate analysis showed that high TRP [hazard ratio (HR)=3.202; 95%CI=1.324-7,745; p=0.010] was an independent prognostic factor for poor OS.

CONCLUSION

Patients aged ≥80 years should be closely monitored regarding postoperative complications. Reducing TRP to less than 1,000 is important to reduce postoperative complications and improve OS.

Strategies for optimal perioperative outcomes in gastric cancer

Cancer and surgery represent a major stress on the human body. Any condition that prevents patients from tolerating the physiological stress is a risk factor for poor outcome. There is a need to identify these impairments early in the process with a simple screening, followed by assessments that provide a holistic picture of the patient. The proposed path of multimodal prehabilitation acts synergistically with enhanced recovery after surgery care to achieve optimal patient outcomes.

Comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS as a prognostic indicator for patients after elective and emergency curative colorectal cancer surgery: A multicenter retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress for managing patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who underwent elective and emergency colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

CRS, which is calculated based on both clinical and surgical factors, is a good predictor of postoperative complications and mortality. However, the impact of CRS in CRC prognosis remains unclear.

METHODS

Patients with CRC who underwent curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The cohort was divided into the low and high CRS groups. The prognostic value of CRS was evaluated via Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The CRS cutoff value was obtained using the Youden index applied to OS curves and have not been validated by any validation cohorts.

RESULTS

In total, 2407 patients, including 1359 and 1048 patients with low and high CRS, respectively, were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analysis revealed that a CRS was an independent prognostic factor of overall and recurrence-free survival regardless of disease stage. Furthermore, adjuvant chemotherapy was beneficial for the survival of patients with stage III CRC in both high and low CRS groups; however, the survival benefit was limited in elderly high CRS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CRS was a strong prognostic factor for CRC regardless of disease stage and might be considered as a biomarker for selecting elderly patients who are eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy.

Compilation and Analysis of Web-Based Orthopedic Personalized Predictive Tools: A Scoping Review

Web-based personalized predictive tools in orthopedic surgery are becoming more widely available. Despite rising numbers of these tools, many orthopedic surgeons may not know what tools are available, how these tools were developed, and how they can be utilized. The aim of this scoping review is to compile and synthesize the profile of existing web-based orthopedic tools. We conducted two separate PubMed searches-one a broad search and the second a more targeted one involving high impact journals-with the aim of comprehensively identifying all existing tools. These articles were then screened for functional tool URLs, methods regarding the tool's creation, and general inputs and outputs required for the tool to function. We identified 57 articles, which yielded 31 unique web-based tools. These tools involved various orthopedic conditions (e.g., fractures, osteoarthritis, musculoskeletal neoplasias); interventions (e.g., fracture fixation, total joint arthroplasty); outcomes (e.g., mortality, clinical outcomes). This scoping review highlights the availability and utility of a vast array of web-based personalized predictive tools for orthopedic surgeons. Increased awareness and access to these tools may allow for better decision support, surgical planning, post-operative expectation management, and improved shared decision-making.

Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set

BACKGROUND

Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study aim is to detect factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and, on this basis, to generate a predictive mortality score.

METHODS

A population cohort for analysis was obtained as all hospital admissions for colorectal cancer during the period 2008-2014, according to the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. The main measure was actual and expected mortality after the application of the considered mathematical model. A logistic regression model and a mortality score were created, and internal validation was performed.

RESULTS

115,841 hospitalization episodes were studied. Of these, 80% were included in the training set. The variables associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05-1.06), urgent admission (OR: 4.68, 95% CI: 4.36-5.02), pulmonary disease (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.28-1.60), stroke (OR: 1.87, 95%CI: 1.53-2.29) and renal insufficiency (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 6.65-7.94). The level of discrimination (area under the curve) was 0.83.

CONCLUSIONS

This mortality model is the first to be based on administrative clinical databases and hospitalization episodes. The model achieves a moderate-high level of discrimination.

Long-term outcomes in elderly patients with resectable large hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

In contrast to the feasibility of hepatectomy for resectable large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, >5 cm) in the younger patients, the concerns of benefits for the elderly patients remain in practice. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes and safety after hepatectomy in elderly patients with resectable large HCC compared with younger patients.

METHODS

Between 2003 and 2014, a total of 2211 HCC patients were reviewed using a prospective database and 257 patients with resectable large HCC undergoing hepatectomy were included: 79 elderly patients with age ≥70 years and 178 younger patients with age <70 years. The last follow-up was assessed in December 2017. The complications, long-term outcomes and risk factors of disease-free and overall survival were analysed.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-year overall survival rates in the elderly and younger groups were 76%, 55%, 48%, and 42% and 79%, 57%, 51%, and 49%, respectively (P = 0.319). The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year disease-free survival rates in the elderly and younger groups were 60%, 40%, 38%, and 27% and 54%, 36%, 32%, and 32%, respectively (P = 0.633). The analysis of post-operative outcomes of interest, including hospital stay and hospital death and hepatectomy-related complications in both groups revealed no significant difference. Serum albumin and AJCC TNM stage were independent risk factors for survival. Serum alpha-fetoprotein, tumour number and AJCC TNM stage predicted HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggested that hepatectomy can achieve comparable long-term outcomes in the selected younger and elderly patients with resectable large HCC.

Perioperative risk prediction in the era of enhanced recovery: a comparison of POSSUM, ACPGBI, and E-PASS scoring systems in major surgical procedures of the colorectal surgeon

PURPOSE

This study aims to determine whether traditional risk models can accurately predict morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing major surgery by colorectal surgeons within an enhanced recovery program.

METHODS

One thousand three hundred eighty patients undergoing surgery performed by colorectal surgeons in a single UK hospital (2008-2013) were included. Six risk models were evaluated: (1) Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), (2) Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), (3) ColoRectal (CR-POSSUM), (4) Elderly POSSUM (E-POSSUM), (5) the Association of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score, and (6) modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress Score (E-PASS). Model accuracy was assessed by observed to expected (O:E) ratios and area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Eleven patients (0.8%) died and 143 patients (10.4%) had a major complication within 30 days of surgery. All models overpredicted mortality and had poor discrimination: POSSUM 8.5% (O:E 0.09, AUC 0.56), P-POSSUM 2.2% (O:E 0.37, AUC 0.56), CR-POSSUM 7.1% (O:E 0.11, AUC 0.61), and E-PASS 3.0% (O:E 0.27, AUC 0.46). ACPGBI overestimated mortality in patients undergoing surgery for cancer 4.4% (O:E = 0.28, AUC = 0.41). Predicted morbidity was also overestimated by POSSUM 32.7% (O:E = 0.32, AUC = 0.51). E-POSSUM overestimated mortality (3.25%, O:E 0.57 AUC = 0.54) and morbidity (37.4%, O:E 0.30 AUC = 0.53) in patients aged ≥ 70 years and over.

CONCLUSION

All models overestimated mortality and morbidity. New models are required to accurately predict the risk of adverse outcome in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery taking into account the reduced physiological and operative insult of laparoscopic surgery and enhanced recovery care.

Impact of laparoscopy on the prevention of pulmonary complications after thoracoscopic esophagectomy using data from JCOG0502: a prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are the most common causes of serious morbidity after esophagectomy, which involves both thoracic and abdominal incisions. Although the thoracoscopic approach decreases PPC frequency after esophagectomy, it remains unclear whether the frequency is further decreased by combining it with laparoscopic gastric mobilization. This study aimed to determine the impact of laparoscopy on the prevention of PPCs after thoracoscopic esophagectomy using data from the Japan Clinical Oncology Group Study 0502 (JCOG0502).

METHODS

JCOG0502 is a four-arm prospective study comparing esophagectomy with definitive chemo-radiotherapy. The use of thoracoscopy and/or laparoscopy was decided at the surgeon's discretion. PPCs were defined as one or more of the following postoperative morbidities grade ≥2 (as per Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0): pneumonia, atelectasis, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

RESULTS

A total of 379 patients were enrolled in JCOG0502. Of these, 210 patients underwent esophagectomy via thoracotomy with laparotomy (n = 102), thoracotomy with laparoscopy (n = 7), thoracoscopy with laparotomy (n = 43), and thoracoscopy with laparoscopy (n = 58). PPC frequency was reduced to a greater extent by thoracoscopy than by thoracotomy (thoracoscopy 15.8%, thoracotomy 30.3%; p = 0.015). However, following thoracoscopic esophagectomy, laparoscopy failed to further decrease the PPC frequency compared with laparotomy (laparoscopy 15.5%, laparotomy 16.3%; p = 1.00). Univariable analysis showed that thoracoscopy (shown above) and less blood loss (<350 mL 16.3%, ≥350 mL 30.2%; p = 0.022) were associated with PPC prevention, whereas laparoscopy showed a borderline significant association (laparoscopy 15.4%, laparotomy 26.9%; p = 0.079). Multivariable analysis also showed that thoracoscopy and less blood loss were associated with PPC prevention.

CONCLUSION

Thoracoscopic approach to esophagectomy significantly reduced PPC frequency with minimal additional effect from laparoscopic gastric mobilization.

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) scoring system could provide preoperative advice on whether to undergo laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer patients with a high physiological risk

Laparoscopic colorectal surgery had been widely used for colorectal cancer patient and showed a favorable outcome on the postoperative morbidity rate. We attempted to evaluate physiological status of patients by mean of Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) system and to analyze the difference variation of postoperative morbidity rate of open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery in patients with different physiological status.In total 550 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery treatment were included. E-PASS and some conventional scoring systems were reviewed to examine their mortality prediction ability. The preoperative risk score (PRS) in the E-PASS system was used to evaluate the physiological status of patients. The difference of postoperative morbidity rate between open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgeries was analyzed respectively in patients with different physiological status.E-PASS had better prediction ability than other conventional scoring systems in colorectal cancer surgeries. Postoperative morbidities were developed in 143 patients. The parameters in the E-PASS system had positive correlations with postoperative morbidity. The overall postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries was lower than open surgeries (19.61% and 28.46%), but the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries increased more significantly than in open surgery as PRS increased. When PRS was more than 0.7, the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries would exceed the postoperative morbidity rate of open surgeries.The E-PASS system was capable to evaluate the physiological and surgical risk of colorectal cancer surgery. PRS could assist preoperative decision-making on the surgical method. Colorectal cancer patients who were assessed with a low physiological risk by PRS would be safe to undergo laparoscopic surgery. On the contrary, surgeons should make decisions prudently on the operation method for patient with a high physiological risk.

Value of E-PASS models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma

BACKGROUND

It has previously been reported that a general risk model, Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), and its modified version, mE-PASS, had a high predictive power for postoperative mortality and morbidity in a variety of gastrointestinal surgeries. This study evaluated their utilities in proximal biliary carcinoma resection.

METHODS

E-PASS variables were collected in patients undergoing resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma in Japanese referral hospitals.

RESULTS

Analysis of 125 patients with gallbladder cancer and 97 patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (n = 222). Fifty-six patients (25%) underwent liver resection with either hemihepatectomy or extended hemihepatectomy. The E-PASS models showed a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) were 0.85 (0.76-0.94) for E-PASS and 0.82 (0.73-0.91) for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient: ρ = 0.51, P < 0.001 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.47, P < 0.001 for mE-PASS).

CONCLUSIONS

The E-PASS models examined herein may accurately predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. These models will be useful for surgical decision-making, informed consent, and risk adjustments in surgical audits.

E-PASS score as a useful predictor of postoperative complications and mortality after colorectal surgery in elderly patients

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to clarify whether a surgical-specific risk scoring system estimating the physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) score was useful for prediction of postoperative morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

The E-PASS score consists of the preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and the comprehensive risk score (CRS). Conventional scoring systems [colorectal physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality (CR-POSSUM) and the prognostic nutritional index (PNI)] were also examined. We retrospectively compared these scores in patients with or without postoperative complications. We assessed the relationship between these scores, clinicopathological features and postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

Postoperative complications developed in 78 patients (33%). American Society of Anesthesiologists score, performance status, PNI score, PRS, SSS, and CRS were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without postoperative complications (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was highest for E-PASS [E-PASS (PRS, 0.74; SSS, 0.62; CRS, 0.78), PNI (0.62), CR-POSSUM (PS, 0.57; OSS, 0.52)]. Multivariate logistic analysis identified CRS ≥ 0.2 as a significant determinant of postoperative complications (p < 0.01; hazard ratio, 4.84). Overall survival was significantly better in the CRS < 0.2 group than in the CRS > 0.2 group (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The E-PASS score system was a useful predictor of postoperative complications and mortality, especially in patients with advanced age.

Risk Model for Distal Gastrectomy When Treating Gastric Cancer on the Basis of Data From 33,917 Japanese Patients Collected Using a Nationwide Web-based Data Entry System

OBJECTIVE

To establish a risk model for distal gastrectomy in Japanese patients with gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification for distal gastrectomy in Japanese patients with gastric cancer improves surgical outcomes.

METHODS

The National Clinical Database was constructed for risk determination in gastric cancer-related gastrectomy among Japanese individuals. Data from 33,917 gastric cancer cases (1737 hospitals) were used. The primary outcomes were 30-day and operative mortalities. Data were randomly assigned to risk model development (27,220 cases) and test validation (6697 cases) subsets. Stepwise selection was used for constructing 30-day and operative mortality logistic models.

RESULTS

The 30-day, in-hospital, and operative mortality rates were 0.52%, 1.16%, and 1.2%, respectively. The morbidity was 18.3%. The 30-day and operative mortality models included 17 and 21 risk factors, respectively. Thirteen variables overlapped: age, need for total assistance in activities of daily living preoperatively or within 30 days after surgery, cerebrovascular disease history, more than 10% weight loss, uncontrolled ascites, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (≥ class 3), white blood cell count more than 12,000/μL or 11,000/μL, anemia (hemoglobin: males, <13.5 g/dL; females, <12.5 g/dL; or hematocrit: males, <37%; females <32%), serum albumin less than 3.5 or 3.8 g/dL, alkaline phosphatase more than 340 IU/L, serum creatinine more than 1.2 mg/dL, serum Na less than 135 mEq/L, and prothrombin time-international normalized ratio more than 1.25 or 1.1. The C-indices for the 30-day and operative mortalities were 0.785 (95% confidence interval, 0.705-0.865; P < 0.001) and 0.798 (95% confidence interval, 0.746-0.851; P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk model developed using nationwide Japanese data on distal gastrectomy in gastric cancer can predict surgical outcomes.

A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer

This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0–43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P < 0.01 for both cohorts). The risk stratification model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups.

Preliminary study of surgical audit for overall survival following gastric cancer resection

BACKGROUND

Previous studies for surgical audit have focused on short-term outcomes, such as perioperative mortality. There has been no gold standard how to evaluate quality of care for long-term outcomes in surgical oncology. This preliminary study aims to propose a method for surgical audit targeting long-term outcome following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

METHODS

We prospectively investigated a set of variables relating to physiologic conditions, tumor characteristics and operations in patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between June 2005 and July 2008 in 18 referral hospitals in Japan. Overall survival (OS) is the endpoint. Cox hazard regression analysis was used to generate a model to predict OS. The calibration and discrimination power of the model were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratio of observed-to-estimated 5-year OS rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality.

RESULTS

Among 762 patients analyzed, 697 (91%) completed the 5-year follow-up. The constructed model for OS exhibited a good discrimination power (AUC, 95% confidence interval 0.89, 0.86-0.91), which was significantly better than that for the UICC stage (0.81, 0.77-0.84). This model also demonstrated a good calibration power (H-L: χ(2) = 27.2, df = 8, P = 0.77). The OE ratios among the participating hospitals revealed no significant variation between 0.74 and 1.1.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study suggests the possibility of surgical audit for postoperative OS in gastric cancer. Further studies including high-volume centers will be necessary to validate this idea.

Evaluation of modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress in patients undergoing surgery for choledochocystolithiasis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of complicated choledochocystolithiasis is increasing with the aging of society in Japan. We evaluated the utility of our prediction rule modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (mE-PASS) in predicting postoperative adverse events in patients with choledochocystolithiasis.

METHODS

A total of 4,329 patients who underwent elective surgery for choledochocystolithiasis in 44 referral hospitals between April 1987 and April 2007 were analyzed for mE-PASS along with postoperative events. The discrimination power of mE-PASS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The correlation between ordinal and interval variables was quantified by the Spearman rank correlation (ρ). The ratio of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratio) was used as a metric of surgical quality.

RESULTS

Postoperative in-hospital mortality rates were 0 % (0/3,442) for laparoscopic cholecystectomy, 0.19 % (1/521) for open cholecystectomy, 1.6 % (1/63) for laparoscopic choledochotomy, 1.1 % (3/264) for open choledochotomy, and 5.1 % (2/39) for plasty or resection of the common bile duct. mE-PASS demonstrated a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; AUC, 95 % confidence interval (CI) of 0.96, 0.94-0.99. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.278, p < 0.0001) and length of hospital stay (ρ = 0.479, p < 0.0001). The OE ratios (95 % CI) improved slightly over time; 1.5 (0.25-9.0) between 1987 and 2000, and 0.40 (0.078-2.1) between 2001 and 2007.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggests that mE-PASS can predict postoperative risks in patients who have undergone choledochocystolithiasis. mE-PASS may be useful in surgical decision making and evaluating the quality of care.

Safety of hepatectomy for elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The number of elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing. Characteristics of elderly HCC patients are a higher proportion of females, a lower rate of positive hepatitis B surface antigen, and a higher rate of positive hepatitis C antibodies. Careful patient selection is vital for performing hepatectomy safely in elderly HCC patients. Treatment strategy should be decided by not only considering tumor stage and hepatic functional reserve, but also physiological status, including comorbid disease. Various assessment tools have been applied to predict the risk of hepatectomy. The reported mortality and morbidity rates after hepatectomy in elderly HCC patients ranged from 0% to 42.9% and from 9% to 51%, respectively. Overall survival rate after hepatectomy in elderly HCC patients at 5 years ranged from 26% to 75.9%. Both short-term and long-term results after hepatectomy for strictly selected elderly HCC patients are almost the same as those for younger patients. However, considering physiological characteristics and the high prevalence of comorbid disease in elderly patients, it is important to assess patients more meticulously and to select them strictly if scheduled to undergo major hepatectomy.

Preoperative C-reactive protein and operative blood loss predict poor prognosis in patients with gastric cancer after laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to clarify the factors associated with postoperative complications and prognoses following laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

METHODS

A total of 214 patients who underwent laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy for gastric cancer were enrolled in this retrospective study. Factors that were potentially associated with postoperative complications and prognosis were assessed using the following clinical and perioperative parameters: the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system, the Prognostic Nutritional Index, and the Clavien-Dindo classification.

RESULTS

Postoperative complications developed in 18.7% of patients. Blood loss ≥ 1% of body weight was significantly correlated with anastomotic leakage (P = 0.0108). Severe complications, based on the Clavien-Dindo classification, were more frequent in patients with proximal or total gastrectomies (P = 0.0324). A preoperative C-reactive protein level > 0.5 mg/dL, blood loss > 1% of body weight, age ≥ 70 years at the time of operation, and an Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress score ≥ 0.2 were significantly correlated with poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis revealed that two of these factors, preoperative C-reactive protein level ≥ 0.5 mg/dL and operative blood loss ≥ 1% of body weight, were independent prognostic factors (P = 0.0376 and P = 0.0112, respectively). The Prognostic Nutritional Index had no significant correlation with prognosis or the occurrence of postoperative complications.

CONCLUSION

Operative blood loss ≥ 1% of body weight and type of resection were associated with an increased frequency of postoperative complications, while preoperative C-reactive protein levels and operative blood loss may be prognostic predictors for gastric cancer patients following laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy.

Validation of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) score for maintenance hemodialysis patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery

AIMS

This study assessed the validity of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) score in maintenance hemodialysis patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 73 hemodialysis patients who underwent elective gastrointestinal surgery. The main outcomes analyzed were the E-PASS score and postoperative course, which were defined by mortality and morbidity. The discriminative capability of the E-PASS score was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The overall mortality rate observed was 2.7% (2 patients) and the morbidity rate was 36.9%. There were no significant differences in the comprehensive risk score, preoperative score or surgical stress score for patients with or without complications (p = 0.556, 0.639 and 0.168, respectively). Subsequent ROC curve analysis demonstrated poor predictive accuracy for morbidity. When the results in our study population were compared with those in Haga's study population, our population exhibited a highly significant rightward shift (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The E-PASS score was a poor predictor of complications because maintenance hemodialysis patients already have relatively high risk factors. This scoring system should not be applied in such a special group with high risk factors.

Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas

BACKGROUND

The present study evaluated the utility of general surgical risk models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in the specialty field of pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas.

METHODS

We investigated Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), its modified version (mE-PASS), and Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) in 231 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy (Group A). We also analyzed E-PASS and mE-PASS in another cohort of the same procedures (Group B, n = 313).

RESULTS

Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for detecting in-hospital mortality in Group A were moderate at 0.75 for E-PASS, 0.69 for mE-PASS, and 0.69 for P-POSSUM. The predicted mortality rates of the models significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.17, P = 0.011 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.15, and P = 0.027 for P-POSSUM). The AUCs were also moderate in Group B at 0.68 for E-PASS and 0.69 for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.18, P = 0.0018 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.17, and P = 0.0022 for mE-PASS).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggests that the predictive powers of general risk models may be moderate in pancreatic resections. A novel model would be desirable for these procedures.

Predictive value of E-PASS and POSSUM systems for postoperative risk assessment of spinal surgery

Object

The Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems are surgical risk scoring systems that take into account both the patient's preoperative condition and intraoperative variables. While they predict postoperative morbidity and mortality rates for several types of surgery, spinal surgeries are currently not included. The authors assessed the usefulness of E-PASS and POSSUM algorithms and compared the predictive ability of both systems in patients with spinal disorders considered for surgery.

Methods

The E-PASS system includes a preoperative risk score, a surgical stress score, and a comprehensive risk score that is determined by both the preoperative risk score and surgical stress score. The POSSUM system is composed of a physiological score and an operative severity score; its total score is based on both the physiological score and operative severity score. The authors calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for 601 consecutive patients who had undergone spinal surgery and investigated the relationship between the individual scores of both systems and the incidence of postoperative complications. They also assessed the correctness of the predicted morbidity rate of both systems.

Results

Postoperative complications developed in 64 patients (10.6%); there were no in-hospital deaths. All EPASS scores (p ≤ 0.001) and the operative severity score and total score of the POSSUM (p < 0.03) were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without postoperative complications. The morbidity rates correlated linearly and significantly with all E-PASS scores (p ≤ 0.001); their coefficients (preoperative risk score, ρ = 0.179; surgical stress score, ρ = 0.131; and comprehensive risk score, ρ = 0.198) were higher than those for the POSSUM scores (physiological score, ρ = 0.059; operative severity score, ρ = 0.111; and total score, ρ = 0.091). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predicted morbidity rate was 0.668 for the E-PASS and 0.588 for the POSSUM system.

Conclusions

As E-PASS predicted morbidity more correctly than POSSUM, it is useful for estimating the postoperative risk of patients considered for spinal surgery.

Validity of E-PASS System for Postoperative Morbidity of Spinal Surgery

STUDY DESIGN

A single-center retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the ability of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) system to predict postoperative risk in patients scheduled for spinal surgery.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The E-PASS system is a surgical audit to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in general surgery. It is currently not applied in patients with spinal disorders.

METHODS

The E-PASS system is comprised of a preoperative risk score (PRS), a surgical stress score (SSS), and a comprehensive risk score (CRS). The latter reflects both the PRS and SSS. We calculated the E-PASS scores for 275 consecutive patients who underwent spinal surgery and evaluated the relationship between the incidence of postoperative complications and each score of the E-PASS system and their ability to predict postoperative morbidity.

RESULTS

Postoperative complications developed in 31 patients (11.3%). All E-PASS scores were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications and they were linearly correlated with the overall incidence of postoperative complications. In particular, PRS was correlated with complications at nonsurgical sites and SSS with surgical site complications. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for PRS and SSS was higher in patients with complications at nonsurgical and surgical sites, respectively. The AUC for CRS exhibited good predictive power for both types of complication.

CONCLUSIONS

The E-PASS system correctly predicted morbidity. The predictive ability of CRS was good for overall morbidity. The E-PASS system is useful for the accurate prediction of the risk for in-hospital morbidity in individual patients scheduled for spinal surgery.

Development and validation of the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES) model

PURPOSE

This study was undertaken to establish a model to predict the post-operative mortality for emergency surgeries.

METHODS

A regression model was constructed to predict in-hospital mortality using data from a cohort of 479 cases of emergency surgery performed in a Japanese referral hospital. The discrimination power of the current model termed the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES), and Portsmouth modification of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in another cohort of 494 cases in the same hospital (validation subset). We further evaluated the accuracy of the CORES in a cohort of 1,471 cases in six hospitals (multicenter subset).

RESULTS

CORES requires only five preoperative variables, while the P-POSSUM requires 20 variables. In the validation subset, the CORES model had a similar discrimination power as the P-POSSUM for detecting in-hospital mortality (AUC, 95 % CI for CORES: 0.86, 0.80-0.93; for P-POSSUM: 0.88, 0.82-0.93). The predicted mortality rates of the CORES model significantly correlated with the severity of the post-operative complications. The subsequent multicenter study also demonstrated that the CORES model exhibited a high AUC value (0.85: 0.81-0.89) and a significant correlation with the post-operative morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

This model for emergency surgery, the CORES, demonstrated a similar discriminatory power to the P-POSSUM in predicting post-operative mortality. However, the CORES model has a substantial advantage over the P-POSSUM in that it utilizes far fewer variables.

Prediction of postoperative complications in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether advanced age was associated with a higher rate of postoperative complications and identify the predictive factors for postoperative complications in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Between January 2000 and December 2010, 256 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC were investigated. Elderly patients were defined as those aged ≥75 y. The clinicopathologic data and outcomes after hepatectomy for 64 elderly and 192 younger patients were retrospectively collected and compared.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the incidence of postoperative complications (P = 0.936) or the long-term survival after hepatectomy (P = 0.641) between the elderly and younger patients. In multivariate analysis, the estimation of physiological ability and surgical stress-preoperative risk score (PRS) was an independent risk factor for postoperative morbidity in the elderly patients (P < 0.01). Moreover, the patients were analyzed according to the PRS for the assessment of their general preoperative condition and liver damage grade based on the hepatic reserve. The rate of postoperative complications in the patients with a PRS ≥0.5 and liver damage B was significantly higher in the elderly patients (P < 0.01), whereas a PRS and liver damage grade did not affect the incidence of postoperative morbidity in the younger patients (P = 0.516).

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatectomy for elderly patients with HCC is feasible as well as safe, and the preoperative assessment using the estimation of physiological ability and surgical stress scoring system, combined with the liver damage grade, can help to improve the safety of this procedure for elderly HCC patients.

Identification of risk factors for esophagojejunal anastomotic leakage after gastric surgery

BACKGROUND

Despite the development of the surgical technique and improvements in perioperative management, anastomotic leakage still occurs at esophagojejunal anastomoses after total or proximal gastrectomy. Anastomotic leakage is one of the major complications of concern, chiefly because it can lead to death. The objective of the present study was to identify the risk factors for esophagojejunal anastomotic leakage.

METHODS

The study was based on retrospective analysis of the data of a total of 1,640 consecutive patients who underwent total, proximal, or completion gastrectomy, including esophagojejunal anastomosis, between 1999 and 2008.

RESULTS

Thirty-five patients (2.1 %) developed anastomotic leakage. Univariate analysis revealed patient age, pulmonary insufficiency, lymph node dissection, combined resection of other organs, omental resection, operative time, blood loss, intraoperative blood transfusion, and postoperative creatinine level were the significant factors influencing anastomotic leakage. Multivariate analysis identified pulmonary insufficiency and the duration of the operation as the predictors of anastomotic leakage.

CONCLUSIONS

To avoid leakage, surgeons should take care in creating the anastomosis in gastrectomy patients, particularly in cases of poor pulmonary function or when the procedure requires a longer operation.

Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative liver failure and mortality following liver surgery

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the ability of general surgical models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in liver surgery.

METHODS

The postoperative course and mortality rates predicted by general surgical models were investigated in 960 patients who underwent hepatectomy or ablation therapy for primary or metastatic liver carcinoma.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operative characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) for detecting postoperative liver failure was 0.89 (0.84-0.94), 0.85 (0.78-0.92), and 0.78 (0.72-0.85) for the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) model, the modified E-PASS (mE-PASS) model, and the Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) model, respectively, and those for detecting in-hospital mortality were 0.85 (0.76-0.93), 0.85 (0.78-0.92), and 0.79 (0.71-0.87), respectively. Nevertheless, all of the models overpredicted the overall mortality rate (by 2.3-fold for E-PASS, 2.3-fold for mE-PASS, and 2.9-fold for P-POSSUM).

CONCLUSIONS

The general surgical risk models demonstrated high discriminatory power for predicting postoperative outcomes in liver surgery, but overpredicted the overall mortality rate by more than twofold. Therefore, these models should be refined to make them more suitable for predicting liver surgery outcomes.

Evaluation of modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress in gastric carcinoma surgery

BACKGROUND

We recently modified our prediction scoring system "Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress" and have designated the current version mE-PASS. This scoring system has been designed to obtain predicted postoperative mortality rates before surgery and this study was performed to assess its usefulness in elective surgery for gastric carcinoma.

METHODS

We investigated seven variables for mE-PASS and evaluated the postoperative course in 3,449 patients who underwent elective surgery for gastric carcinoma in Japan between August 20, 1987 and April 9, 2007, in order to quantify the predicted in-hospital mortality rates (R). The calibration and discrimination power of R were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratios of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratios) were quantified as a measure of quality.

RESULTS

The overall postoperative morbidity and mortality rates were 19.0 and 2.0%, respectively. R demonstrated good power in calibration (χ(2) value, 12.5; df 8; P = 0.89) as well as discrimination (AUC, 95% confidence intervals: 0.80, 0.75-0.85). The OE ratios between hospitals ranged from 0.44 to 1.8. Overall, the OE ratios seemed to improve with time (OE ratio, 95% confidence intervals: 1.3, 0.73-2.4 for the early period between 1987 and 2000; 1.0, 0.59-1.7 for the middle period between 2001 and 2004; and 0.65, 0.36-1.2 for the late period between 2005 and 2007).

CONCLUSION

Based on these findings, mE-PASS might be useful for medical decision-making and for assessing the quality of care in elective surgery for gastric carcinoma.

Using the E-PASS scoring system to estimate the risk of emergency abdominal surgery in patients with acute gastrointestinal disease

PURPOSE

The Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system, which quantifies a patient's reserve and surgical stress, is used to predict morbidity and mortality in patients before elective gastrointestinal surgery. We conducted this study to clarify whether the E-PASS scoring system is useful for assessing the risks of emergency abdominal surgery.

METHODS

The subjects of this retrospective study were 51 patients who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery at a public general hospital. The main outcomes were the E-PASS scores and the postoperative course, defined by mortality and morbidity.

RESULTS

Postoperative complications developed in 15 of the 51 patients (29.4%). The E-PASS score was significantly higher in the patients with postoperative complications than in those without (0.61 ± 0.31 vs 0.20 ± 0.35, respectively; n = 36). The morbidity rates were significantly lower in the patients with a value less than 0.5 than in those with a value more than 0.5 (17.1% and 56.3%, respectively; P < 0.01). There were 7 operative deaths among the 16 patients with a high score, versus none among the 9 patients with a low score (P < 0.01). Three patients underwent laparoscopic-assisted bowel resection with a good postoperative course, with scores of less than 0.5.

CONCLUSIONS

The E-PASS scoring system is useful for surgical decision making and evaluating whether patients will tolerate emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Minimally invasive therapy would assist in lowering the risk of complications.

Evaluation of modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress in colorectal carcinoma surgery

BACKGROUND

We recently modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, our prediction scoring system.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the usefulness of our modified version for colorectal carcinoma in comparison with existing models.

DESIGN

This investigation studied a multicenter cohort.

SETTINGS

The study was conducted in regional referral hospitals in Japan.

PATIENTS

Patients were included who underwent elective surgery for colorectal carcinoma.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Postoperative morbidity, mortality, and predicted mortality rates for original and modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress were investigated in 2388 patients in comparison with existing European models.

RESULTS

Among the models, the modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress demonstrated the highest discriminatory power in terms of in-hospital mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84 for Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.87 for modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.84 for Portsmouth modification of POSSUM, 0.74 for ASA status-based model), as well as 30-day mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.84 for modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.81 for POSSUM, 0.78 for colorectal POSSUM, 0.76 for Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland score). British models, in general, overpredicted postoperative mortality rates by more than 10 times.

LIMITATIONS

The current study analyzed only the Japanese population treated in medium-volume centers.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the models, modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress was the most accurate in predicting postoperative mortality in colorectal carcinoma surgery. These findings should be validated in Western populations, because the Japanese population may differ from Western populations in terms of body shape or reserve capacity.

Prediction of anastomotic leak and its prognosis in digestive surgery

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leak (AL) is a dangerous postoperative complication in gastrointestinal surgery. The present study focuses on whether our prediction scoring system, "Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress" (E-PASS), could predict occurrence of AL and its prognosis in various kinds of gastrointestinal surgical procedures.

METHODS

We prospectively investigated parameters of E-PASS, absence or presence of AL, and in-hospital mortality in 6,005 patients who underwent elective digestive surgery with alimentary tract reconstruction in 45 acute care hospitals in Japan between 1 April 2002 and 31 March 2007.

RESULTS

Incidences of AL were 19.6% for esophagectomy via right thoracotomy and laparotomy, 11.7% for pancreaticoduodenectomy, 7.4% for low anterior resection, 4.0% for total gastrectomy, 1.8% for open distal gastrectomy, 1.3% for open colectomy, for an overall incidence of 4.1%. The incidence in each procedure significantly correlated with median value of surgical stress score of the E-PASS (R = 0.78, n = 11, p = 0.0048). The incidences of AL increased when Total Risk Points (TRP) of the E-PASS increased; 1.1% at the TRP range of <500, 2.8% at 500 to <1,000, 4.8% at 1,000 to <1,500, and 13.6% at ≥ 1,500 (p < 0.0001). In patients who suffered from AL, an in-hospital mortality rate at TRP < 1,000 was significantly lower than that at TRP of ≥ 1,000 (1.1 vs. 15.9%; p = 0.00019).

CONCLUSIONS

The E-PASS, requiring only nine variables, may be useful in predicting AL and its prognosis.

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress score does not predict immediate outcome after pancreatic surgery

OBJECTIVE

The Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress score was designed to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in general surgery. Our study aims to evaluate its use and accuracy in estimating postoperative outcome after elective pancreatic surgery.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2007, approximately 304 patients requiring pancreatic resection at our institution were recorded prospectively and evaluated retrospectively. The patients' preoperative risk score, surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were calculated and compared with the severity of postoperative morbidity, where mortality was regarded as the most severe postoperative complication.

RESULTS

Observed and predicted mortality rates were 2.9% and 2.0%, respectively. Mean CRS was higher in patients who died than in patients that survived, but this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.20). Preoperative risk score, SSS, and CRS did not differ between patients with and without complications (preoperative risk score: P = 0.32; SSS: P = 0.22; CRS: P = 0.13). Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress particularly underpredicted morbidity in patients with a CRS between 0.0 and less than 0.5.

CONCLUSIONS

The Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system is an ineffective predictor of complications after pancreatic resection. Further refinements to the score calculation are warranted to provide accurate prediction of immediate surgical outcome after pancreatic surgery.

Evaluation of estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress to predict in-hospital mortality in cardiac surgery

PURPOSE

Prediction of postoperative risk in cardiac surgery is important for cardiac surgeons and anesthesiologists. We generated a prediction rule for elective digestive surgery, designated as Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS). This study was undertaken to evaluate the accuracy of E-PASS in predicting postoperative risk in cardiac surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data from patients who underwent elective cardiac surgery at a low-volume center (N = 291) and at a high-volume center (N = 784). Data were collected based on the variables required by E-PASS, the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE), and the Ontario Province Risk Score (OPRS). Calibration and discrimination were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratio of observed-to-estimated in-hospital mortality rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality rates were 7.6% at the low-volume center and 1.3% at the high-volume center, accounting for an overall mortality rate of 3.0%. AUC values to detect in-hospital mortality were 0.88 for E-PASS, 0.77 for EuroSCORE, and 0.71 for OPRS. Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis showed a good calibration in all models (P = 0.81 for E-PASS, P = 0.49 for EuroSCORE, and P = 0.94 for OPRS). OE ratios for the low-volume center were 0.83 for E-PASS, 0.70 for EuroSCORE, and 0.83 for OPRS, whereas those for the high-volume center were 0.26 for E-PASS, 0.14 for EuroSCORE, and 0.27 for OPRS.

CONCLUSIONS

E-PASS may accurately predict postoperative risk in cardiac surgery. Because the variables are different between cardiac-specific models and E-PASS, patients' risks can be double-checked by cardiac surgeons using cardiac-specific models and by anesthesiologists using E-PASS.

Preoperative portal vein embolization (PVE) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma can improve resectability and may improve disease-free survival

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to identify the efficacy of portal vein embolization (PVE) before right hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with regard to hepatic function, surgical stress, and survival benefit.

METHODS

Fifty-five patients with HCC underwent right hepatectomy between 1999 and 2009. Preoperative PVE was performed in 19 patients (PVE group) and was not applied in 36 patients (non-PVE group). Changes in liver function and volume were investigated in PVE group. Short and long clinical outcomes after the surgeries were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The percentage of future liver remnant (%FLR) before PVE was significantly lower (37.8%) in PVE group than in non-PVE group (58.1%) but increased remarkably after PVE (from 37.8% to 55.0%, P < 0.0001). Cumulative disease-free survival and overall survival rates in PVE group were significantly superior to those in non-PVE group (P = 0.010 and 0.049, respectively). Although surgical stress estimated by E-PASS scores and CRP value was not different between the groups, the postoperative value of PT on postoperative day 3 in PVE group was significantly better than in non-PVE group.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative PVE improves resectability and may improve disease-free survival for patients with HCC requiring right hepatectomy.

Prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection: are elderly patients suitable for surgery?

AIM

The indication for hepatectomy is still controversial in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined the clinicopathological features and survival of 188 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Patients were divided into four age groups: Age(<50) group (young patients <50 years of age, n = 9), Age(50-69) group (between 50-69 years, n = 110), Age(70-79) group (70-79 years, n = 57), and Age(≥80) group (≥80 years, n = 12). Physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) score, including preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were assessed.

RESULTS

Proportion of patients of Age(70-79) and Age(≥80) groups increased significantly in the last 5 years (P < 0.01). Co-morbidity, performance status, and American Society of Anesthesiologists score significantly increased with age (P < 0.05). Proportions of patients with irregular findings and necro-inflammatory activity were significantly lower in Age(70-79) and Age(≥80) groups than in other groups (P < 0.05). Systemic postoperative complications were high in Age(70-79) and Age(≥80) groups. PRS increased significantly with age (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis identified PRS ≥0.32 and age ≥70 years as significant determinants of systemic complications (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in postoperative survivals among the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Careful follow-up and proper decision on hepatectomy upon assessment of PRS are important in elderly HCC patients.

A multicenter prospective study of surgical audit systems

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to evaluate a modified form of Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) for surgical audit comparing with other existing models.

BACKGROUND

Although several scoring systems have been devised for surgical audit, no nation-wide survey has been performed yet.

METHODS

We modified our previous E-PASS surgical audit system by computing the weights of 41 procedures, using data from 4925 patients who underwent elective digestive surgery, designated it as mE-PASS. Subsequently, a prospective cohort study was conducted in 43 national hospitals in Japan from April 1, 2005, to April 8, 2007. Variables for the E-PASS and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status-based model were collected for 5272 surgically treated patients. Of the 5272 patients, we also collected data for the Portsmouth modification of Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) in 3128 patients. The area under the receiver operative characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate discrimination performance to detect in-hospital mortality. The ratio of observed to estimated in-hospital mortality rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality.

RESULTS

The numbers of variables required were 10 for E-PASS, 7 for mE-PASS, 20 for P-POSSUM, and 4 for the ASA status-based model. The AUC (95% confidence interval) values were 0.86 (0.79-0.93) for E-PASS, 0.86 (0.79-0.92) for mE-PASS, 0.81 (0.75-0.88) for P-POSSUM, and 0.73 (0.63-0.83) for the ASA status-based model. The OE ratios for mE-PASS among large-volume hospitals significantly correlated with those for E-PASS (R = 0.93, N = 9, P = 0.00026), P-POSSUM (R = 0.96, N = 6, P = 0.0021), and ASA status-based model (R = 0.83, N = 9, P = 0.0051).

CONCLUSION

Because of its features of easy use, accuracy, and generalizability, mE-PASS is a candidate for a nation-wide survey.

Risk modelling of outcome after general and trauma surgery (the IRIS score)

Background

A practical, easy to use model was developed to stratify risk groups in surgical patients: the Identification of Risk In Surgical patients (IRIS) score.

Methods

Over 15 years an extensive database was constructed in a general surgery unit, containing all patients who underwent general or trauma surgery. A logistic regression model was developed to predict mortality. This model was simplified to the IRIS score to enhance practicality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed.

Results

The database contained a consecutive series of 33 224 patients undergoing surgery. Logistic regression analysis gave the following formula for the probability of mortality: P (mortality) = A/(1 + A), where A = exp (−4·58 + (0·26× acute admission) + (0·63× acute operation) + (0·044× age) + (0·34× severity of surgery)). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0·92. The IRIS score also included age (divided into quartiles, 0–3 points), acute admission, acute operation and grade of surgery. The AUC predicting postoperative mortality was 0·90.

Conclusion

The IRIS score accurately predicted mortality after general or trauma surgery.

New equations for predicting postoperative risk in patients with hip fracture

Predicting the postoperative course of patients with hip fractures would be helpful for surgical planning and risk management. We therefore established equations to predict the morbidity and mortality rates in candidates for hip fracture surgery using the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) risk-scoring system. First we evaluated the correlation between the E-PASS scores and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates in all 722 patients surgically treated for hip fractures during the study period (Group A). Next we established equations to predict morbidity and mortality rates. We then applied these equations to all 633 patients with hip fractures treated at seven other hospitals (Group B) and compared the predicted and actual morbidity and mortality rates to assess the predictive ability of the E-PASS and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems. The ratio of actual to predicted morbidity and mortality rates was closer to 1.0 with the E-PASS than the POSSUM system. Our data suggest the E-PASS scoring system is useful for defining postoperative risk and its underlying algorithm accurately predicts morbidity and mortality rates in patients with hip fractures before surgery. This information then can be used to manage their condition and potentially improve treatment outcomes.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.