Natural history of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: Kinetic analyses on tumor volume during active surveillance and before presentation

Alpha-6 integrin deletion delays the formation of Brca1/p53-deficient basal-like breast tumors by restricting luminal progenitor cell expansion

BACKGROUND

The aberrant amplification of mammary luminal progenitors is at the origin of basal-like breast cancers associated with BRCA1 mutations. Integrins mediate cell-matrix adhesion and transmit mechanical and chemical signals that drive epithelial stem cell functions and regulate tumor progression, metastatic reactivation, and resistance to targeted therapies. Consistently, we have recently shown that laminin-binding integrins are essential for the expansion and differentiation of mammary luminal progenitors in physiological conditions. As over-expression of the laminin-binding α6 integrin (Itgα6) is associated with poor prognosis and reduced survival in breast cancer, we here investigate the role of Itgα6 in mammary tumorigenesis.

METHODS

We used Blg-Cre; Brca1F/F; Trp53F/F mice, a model that phenocopies human basal-like breast cancer with BRCA1 mutations. We generated mutant mice proficient or deficient in Itgα6 expression and followed tumor formation. Mammary tumors and pretumoral tissues were characterized by immunohistochemistry, flow cytometry, RT-qPCR, Western blotting and organoid cultures. Clonogenicity of luminal progenitors from preneoplastic glands was studied in 3D Matrigel cultures.

RESULTS

We show that Itga6 deletion favors activation of p16 cell cycle inhibitor in the preneoplastic tissue. Subsequently, the amplification of luminal progenitors, the cell of origin of Brca1-deficient tumors, is restrained in Itgα6-deficient gland. In addition, the partial EMT program operating in Brca1/p53-deficient epithelium is attenuated in the absence of Itgα6. As a consequence of these events, mammary tumor formation is delayed in Itgα6-deficient mice. After tumor formation, the lack of Itgα6 does not affect tumor growth but rather alters their differentiation, resulting in reduced expression of basal cell markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that Itgα6 has a pro-tumorigenic role in Blg-Cre; Brca1F/F; Trp53F/F mice developing basal-like mammary tumors. In particular, we reveal that Itgα6 is required for the luminal progenitor expansion and the aberrant partial EMT program that precedes the formation of BRCA1 deficient tumors.

Tumor Growth Kinetics Based on Initial Tumor Volume Doubling Time in Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

During active surveillance (AS) of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs), the majority remain stable, while some exhibit either increase or decrease in tumor diameter or tumor volume (TV). We aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes and relevant parameters influencing tumor growth kinetics of low-risk PTCs.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study evaluated clinical parameters of 402 patients with low-risk PTC sized <2 cm, with a follow-up duration over 3 years. Changes in maximum tumor diameter, TV, and initial TV doubling time (i-TVDT) calculated within 3-year were assessed. A significant change in TV was defined as a change of 75% or more.

RESULTS

Of the 402 patients with low-risk PTC, 93.3% (375/402) were diagnosed with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. During a median follow-up of 5 years, 3.4% (14/402) of patients developed new cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis, and 8.2% (33/402) experienced maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The i-TVDT of <5 years emerged as an independent risk factor for both maximal diameter growth and new LN metastasis (p<0.001 and p=0.04, respectively). Based on TV changes and i-TVDT during AS, we identified four statistically significant tumor kinetic patterns (p<0.001): Stable (±75% change in TV), Rapid growth (TV increase >75% and i- TVDT <5 years), Slow growth (TV increase >75% and i-TVDT ≥5 years), and Shrinkage (TV decrease >75%). Most of the PTCs remained stable (67.7%), but 17.2% were rapidly growing, with a median onset of growth of 2.0 years. Slowly growing PTCs, comprising 10.9%, grew at a median of 4.3 years. A minority, 4.2%, exhibited shrinkage. In total, 115 (28.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery >12 months after initiating AS. The reasons for delayed surgery included patient preference (51/115, 44.3%), disease progression (31/115, 27.0%), and suspected disease progression, which was referred to as tumor growth not meeting the criteria of an increase of ≥3 mm in maximal tumor diameter (17/115, 14.8%).

CONCLUSION

An i-TVDT of <5 years serve as an important prognostic indicator for disease progression, including tumor growth and new LN metastasis. The four tumor kinetic patterns based on TV changes and i-TVDT assist in guiding personalized decisions early in AS.

Undercover active surveillance of small highly suspicious thyroid nodules without fine needle aspiration

PURPOSE

Active surveillance (AS) is an alternative treatment approach for small, low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). This study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of small, highly suspicious nodules lacking initial cytological confirmation.

METHODS

This study included 112 patients with highly suspicious nodules measuring ≤ 10 mm who underwent serial ultrasound at Asan Medical Center, Korea, between 2010 and 2023.

RESULTS

The median participant age was 51.9 years, and 74.1% were female. The median maximal tumor diameter and tumor volume (TV) were 4.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 3.7-5.2, range 2.2-9.3) mm and 25.2 (IQR 13.1-49.2) mm3, respectively. During a median follow-up period of 4.8 years, four (3.6%) patients showed a ≥ 3 mm increase in maximal diameter, and two (1.8%) developed new lymph node (LN) metastasis. Disease progression was associated with a TV doubling time (TVDT) of < 5 years and a ≥ 75% increase in TV (p = 0.017 and p < 0.005, respectively). Furthermore, 34.8% of patients underwent fine needle aspiration (FNA), primarily at their own request, yielding 46.2%, 5.1%, 41.0%, and 12.8 % malignant, benign, indeterminate, and non-diagnostic results, respectively. Of 18 patients with PTMC, 8 (44.4%) underwent surgery and 10 continued AS, with no LN metastasis during AS and no postoperative recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Small, highly suspicious nodules had a low disease progression rate during AS without FNA. Disease progression was associated with a TVDT of < 5 years and a ≥ 75% increase in TV. FNA can be performed more conservatively than it currently is in patients with highly suspicious nodules measuring ≤ 10 mm.

Prognostic value of tumor volume doubling time in lung-metastatic adenoid cystic carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Lung metastases in adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) usually have indolent growth and the optimal timing to start systemic therapy is not established. We assessed ACC lung metastasis tumor growth dynamics and compared the prognostic value of time to progression (TTP) and tumor volume doubling time (TVDT).

METHODS

The study included ACC patients with ≥1 pulmonary metastasis (≥5 mm) and at least 2 chest computed tomography scans. Radiology assessment was performed from the first scan showing metastasis until treatment initiation or death. Up to 5 lung nodules per patient were segmented for TVDT calculation. To assess tumor growth rate (TGR), the correlation coefficient (r) and coefficient of determination (R2) were calculated for measured lung nodules. TTP was assessed per RECIST 1.1; TVDT was calculated using the Schwartz formula. Overall survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

The study included 75 patients. Sixty-seven patients (89%) had lung-only metastasis on first CT scan. The TGR was overall constant (median R2 = 0.974). Median TTP and TVDT were 11.2 months and 7.5 months. Shorter TVDT (<6 months) was associated with poor overall survival (HR = 0.48; p = 0.037), but TTP was not associated with survival (HR = 1.02; p = 0.96). Cox regression showed that TVDT but not TTP significantly correlated with OS. TVDT calculated using estimated tumor volume correlated with TVDT obtained by segmentation.

CONCLUSION

Most ACC lung metastases have a constant TGR. TVDT may be a better prognostic indicator than TTP in lung-metastatic ACC. TVDT can be estimated by single longitudinal measurement in clinical practice.

Tumor volume-doubling rate is negatively associated with patient age in papillary thyroid microcarcinomas under active surveillance

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas has gained popularity worldwide as a management strategy. We previously reported that young age was associated with tumor enlargement by ≥3 mm. Here, we used the tumor volume-doubling rate to study the age-related tumor volume dynamics of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas under active surveillance.

METHODS

Between 2005 and 2019, 2,896 patients diagnosed with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas underwent active surveillance. We excluded patients who underwent ultrasound examination fewer than 4 times, had coexisting Graves' disease, or were treated with levothyroxine at the time of diagnosis, and we enrolled 2,129 patients for this study. We divided them into 3 subsets based on the age at diagnosis: young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59 years), and elderly (≥60 years). The tumor volume-doubling rate was calculated based on ultrasound-derived tumor sizes and the respective examination date for each patient.

RESULTS

Overall, 140 patients (6.6%) had moderate or rapid growth (tumor volume-doubling rate ≥0.3/year), and the incidence significantly decreased with advanced age (P < .01): 11.3%, 7.1%, and 5.0% in the young, middle-aged, and elderly groups, respectively. Tumor regression (tumor volume-doubling rate <0/year) was detected in 1,200 patients (56.4%), and the incidence significantly increased with age (P < .01): 44.6%, 55.3%, and 60.0% in the young, middle-aged, and elderly groups, respectively. On multivariate analysis, both the ≥60 years and 40 to 59 years age groups were independent negative predictors of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma enlargement and positive predictors of tumor regression.

CONCLUSION

Tumor volume-doubling rate analysis demonstrated that the incidence of tumor enlargement decreased and that of tumor regression increased with advancing age in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinomas.

Tumor growth manifested in two-fifths of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients during active surveillance: data from a tertiary center in China

Purpose

To assess tumor growth using tumor doubling rate (TDR) during active surveillance (AS) in China.

Methods

Between January 2016 and June 2020, a total of 219 patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) (aged 23-75 years) were consecutively enrolled in the AS program.

Results

Four sections of TDR, >0.5, 0.1~0.5, -0.1~0.1 and <-0.1, corresponded with four categories of tumor volume kinetics: rapid growth, slow growth, stable, and decreased size. We found that 10.5% of PTMCs exhibited rapid growth, 33.33% exhibited slow growth, 26.48% were stable, and 29.68% decreased in size. Tumor growth was associated with two factors: age and volume of PTMC at diagnosis. 85.72% of elderly patients (≥ 61 years old) had tumors that remained stable or even shrank and rapidly growing tumors were not found in them. When the volume was small (≤14.13 mm3), the proportion of rapid growth was high (41.67%), whereas when the volume was large (> 179.5 mm3), the proportion of non-growth was 68.75%.

Conclusion

TDR may be a better metric for evaluating tumor growth in observational PTMCs. A certain proportion of PTMCs grow during the period of AS and tumor growth was associated with age and volume of PTMC at initial diagnosis. Therefore, how to block tumor growth during the AS period, especially for young patients and patients with early-stage PTMC (size ≤ 5 mm), will be a new challenge.

Minimum latency effects for cancer associated with exposures to radiation or other carcinogens

BACKGROUND

In estimating radiation-associated cancer risks a fixed period for the minimum latency is often assumed. Two empirical latency functions have been used to model latency, continuously increasing from 0. A stochastic biologically-based approach yields a still more plausible way of describing latency and can be directly estimated from clinical data.

METHODS

We derived the parameters for a stochastic biologically-based model from tumour growth data for various cancers, and least-squares fitted the two types of empirical latency function to the stochastic model-predicted cumulative probability.

RESULTS

There is wide variation in growth rates among tumours, particularly slow for prostate and thyroid cancer and particularly fast for leukaemia. The slow growth rate for prostate and thyroid tumours implies that the number of tumour cells required for clinical detection cannot greatly exceed 106. For all tumours, both empirical latency functions closely approximated the predicted biological model cumulative probability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results, illustrating use of a stochastic biologically-based model using clinical data not tied to any particular carcinogen, have implications for estimating latency associated with any mutagen. They apply to tumour growth in general, and may be useful for example, in planning screenings for cancer using imaging techniques.

Thirty years of active surveillance for low-risk thyroid cancer, lessons learned and future directions

Active Surveillance is a non-invasive strategy designed to identify a minority of patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma who might experience clinical progression and benefit from additional definitive treatments. Global experience suggests that these tumors typically show minimal changes in size during active surveillance, often demonstrating very slow growth or even size reduction. Moreover, the rate of lymph node metastases is low and can be effectively managed through rescue surgery, without impacting cancer-related mortality. However, despite 30 years of experience demonstrating the safety and feasibility of active surveillance for appropriately selected patients, this approach seems to have limited adoption in specific contexts. This limitation can be attributed to various barriers, including disparities in access to accurate information about the indolent nature of this disease and the prevalence of a maximalist mindset among certain patients and medical settings. This review aims to revisit the experience from the last three decades, provide current insights into the clinical outcomes of active surveillance trials, and propose a systematic approach for its implementation. Furthermore, it intends to emphasize the importance of precise patient selection and provides new perspectives in the field.

Active Surveillance for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancers: A Review of Current Practice Guidelines

The indolent nature and favorable outcomes associated with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma have prompted numerous prospective studies on active surveillance (AS) and its adoption as an alternative to immediate surgery in managing low-risk thyroid cancer. This article reviews the current status of AS, as outlined in various international practice guidelines. AS is typically recommended for tumors that measure 1 cm or less in diameter and do not exhibit aggressive subtypes on cytology, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis. To determine the most appropriate candidates for AS, factors such as tumor size, location, multiplicity, and ultrasound findings are considered, along with patient characteristics like medical condition, age, and family history. Moreover, shared decision-making, which includes patient-reported outcomes such as quality of life and cost-effectiveness, is essential. During AS, patients undergo regular ultrasound examinations to monitor for signs of disease progression, including tumor growth, extrathyroidal extension, or lymph node metastasis. In conclusion, while AS is a feasible and reliable approach for managing lowrisk thyroid cancer, it requires careful patient selection, effective communication for shared decision-making, standardized follow-up protocols, and a clear definition of disease progression.

The safety and efficacy of delayed surgery by simulating clinical progression of observable papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a retrospective analysis of 524 patients from a single medical center

Objective

When active surveillance (AS) is developed in the patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), a medical center needs to ensure the delayed operation that is caused by PTMC clinical progression to have the same prognosis as that of immediate operation. The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of delayed surgery by simulating clinical progression (tumor size enlargement and appearance of lymph node metastasis) of PTMCs with AS in a single medical center.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the response to therapy in 317 papillary thyroid carcinoma patients treated with total thyroidectomy and post-operative radioactive iodine ablation. They were classified into three groups according to tumor size (group A ≤0.5 cm; group B >0.5 cm and ≤1 cm; group C >1 cm and ≤1.5 cm) or two groups according to the presence (cN1) or absence (cN0) of the clinical lymph node (LN) metastasis. Groups C and cN1 were regarded as simulated clinical progression of observational PTMC and the operation for them was assumed to be "delayed surgery". However, Groups A, B and cN0 were regarded as no clinical progression and the operation for them was considered as immediate surgery.

Results

There were no significantly differences in excellent response to therapy and recurrence-free survival not only among the group A, B and C, but also between the group cN0 and cN1. In other words, these insignificant differences were found between immediate and simulated "delayed" surgeries.

Conclusion

For the PTMC patients suitable for AS, the oncological outcomes were also excellent even if surgery was delayed until after the presence of clinical progression, according to our clinical simulation. Furthermore, we consider that it was feasible for medical centers to assess the ability to implement AS for PTMC patients by retrospectively analyzing their own previous clinical data using the described simulation.

Inter-observer variation in two-dimensional and three-dimensional ultrasound measurement of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

BACKGROUNDS

The reliable ultrasound (US) measurements of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) are very important during active surveillance. This prospective study was design to investigate the inter-observer reliability and agreement of two- dimensional ultrasound(2DUS) and three-dimensional ultrasound(3DUS) in the measurement of maximum diameter and volume for PTMC.

METHODS

This prospective study included 51 consecutive patients with solitary PTMC confirmed by biopsy. Two independent observers performed measurements of each tumor using a standardized measurement protocol. The maximum diameter was the largest one of the three diameters measured on the largest transverse and longitudinal 2DUS images. 2DUS volume was calculated using ellipsoid formula method. The virtual organ computer aided analysis(VOCAL) was used to determine 3DUS volume. The inter-observer reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC) with 95% confidence intervals(CIs). Bland-Altman analysis was used to evaluate agreement, and expressed as a bias with 95% limits of agreement(LOA).

RESULTS

The maximum diameter was 0.78 ± 0.14 cm. Volume measured by 3DUS was significantly smaller than that by 2DUS(0.163 ± 0.074 cm3 vs. 0.175 ± 0.078 cm3, P = 0.005). The ICCs of inter-observer reliability of maximum diameter, 2DUS volume and 3DUS volume was 0.922(0.864-0.955), 0.928(0.874-0.959), and 0.974(0.955-0.985), respectively. The ICCs of 2DUS and 3DUS volume was 0.955(0.909-0.976). The inter-observer agreement of maximum diameter, 2DUS volume and 3DUS volume was 1.096(0.7322 to 1.459), 1.008(0.5802-1.435), and 1.011(0.7576-1.265), respectively. The inter-observer agreement of 2DUS and 3DUS volume was 1.096(0.7322 to 1.459).

CONCLUSION

Maximum diameter had the lowest degree of observer variation among all the measurements. Volume measured by 3DUS had lower variability and higher repeatability than that by 2DUS, which might be helpful to provide more reliable estimates of tumor size for PTMC.

Conservative management of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma: a review of the active surveillance experience

The detection of low-risk thyroid carcinoma has increased in recent decades, although disease-specific mortality remained without changes. The high prevalence of occult carcinomas in autopsy studies, and hence the underlying indolent course of this entity, prompted the emergence of active surveillance as an alternative approach to these tumors. This strategy aims to recognize the minority group of patients who will develop clinical progression and probably benefit from deferred surgery. Experience around the world has shown that during active surveillance these tumors are mostly unchanged in size, with very-slow growth and even a decrease in diameter. Moreover, the rates of lymph node metastases were low and easily handled by rescue surgery, and distant metastases have not been reported. Given the high prevalence of small thyroid carcinomas and the excellent outcomes for observation, active surveillance provides a safe and feasible alternative in properly selected patients with low-risk thyroid cancer.

Active Surveillance for Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Less aggressive treatment options, including hemithyroidectomy and active surveillance, have been accepted as treatment options for low-risk small, differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). Multiple studies have shown a low rate of cancer growth and lymph node metastases and no evidence of distant metastases during active surveillance of low-risk small DTC. However, not all patients with low -risk small DTC are ideal or appropriate candidate for active surveillance. Patients with thyroid cancer adjacent to either the trachea or recurrent laryngeal nerve or those with evidence of extrathyroidal extension, a high-risk molecular profile, lymph node, or distant metastases are considered inappropriate candidates for active surveillance. In addition, there are other essential factors that clinicians should consider while recommending active surveillance, including patient financial and insurance status; availability of high-quality neck ultrasounds and experienced radiologists, endocrinologists, and surgeons; and patient preference, level of anxiety, and willingness to undergo prolonged surveillance and follow-up imaging.

Chronology of Thyroid Cancer

INTRODUCTION

The basic nature of cancer includes unlimited growth, invasion, and metastasis. The TNM staging system is very simple and popular. It indicates the degree of the anatomical spread of the disease but does not include tumor growth. Collins reported that human tumors grow exponentially, which can be expressed in doubling time.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We found that in patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) and papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) serum calcitonin and thyroglobulin levels changed exponentially over time, respectively, and that doubling times of these values were very strong prognostic factors. Doubling time has two major limitations. Doubling rate resolves these limitations. Using doubling rate, we performed kinetic analyses on tumor volume during active surveillance of micro-PTC.

RESULTS

Our kinetic studies on patients with biochemically persistent disease revealed that 17% of MTC and 51% of PTC showed decrease in serum tumor marker levels over time. During active surveillance of micro-PTC, 17% of the patients showed clear decrease in their tumor volume. The evidences currently available are limited. However, our data indicate the following: Growth slowdown and regression are very common phenomena in the natural history of micro-PTC, clinical PTC in young and middle-aged patients, and hereditary MTC. The biologic characteristics of cancers of the same name, such as PTC, are diverse and vary widely with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Doubling time and doubling rate are very powerful tools to provide the most appropriate management for the patients with thyroid cancers. Knowing the natural history of thyroid cancer is essential for the best disease management of thyroid cancer.

Active surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Recently, the incidence of thyroid carcinoma has been increasing rapidly worldwide. This is interpreted as an increase in the incidental detection of small papillary thyroid carcinomas by the widespread use of high-resolution imaging techniques such as ultrasonography. However, the mortality rates of thyroid carcinoma have not changed, suggesting that small papillary thyroid carcinomas may be overdiagnosed and overtreated. Active surveillance management has been introduced from Japan since the 1990s, as one of the measures to prevent overtreatment of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. Based on the favorable outcomes, active surveillance has been gradually adopted worldwide as an alternative to immediate surgery. The management should be carried out with strict eligibility criteria and close monitoring for cancer progression, under a multidisciplinary team. In addition, an adequate shared decision-making is mandatory for individual patients. Papillary thyroid microcarcinomas with clinically apparent lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, or invasion to adjacent organs should have surgery.

Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone, Age, and Tumor Size are Risk Factors for Progression During Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma in Adults

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) was initiated at Kuma Hospital in 1993 and is gradually spreading worldwide. We assessed the effect of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels on PTMC enlargement in patients on AS.

METHODS

We enrolled 2705 patients with cytologically diagnosed PTMC who had undergone AS between January 2005 and July 2019. Patients with Graves disease were excluded. The median AS period was 5.5 years (range 1.0-15.7 years). Tumor enlargement was defined as a size increase ≥3 mm. Chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazard, and logistic regression were used to compare variables.

RESULTS

Ninety-two patients (3.4%) experienced tumor enlargement; the 5-, 10-, and 15-year enlargement rates were 3.0%, 5.5%, and 6.2%, respectively. Young age (<40 years, p < 0.001), large tumor size (≥9 mm, p = 0.017), and high detailed TSH score (≥3, higher than the lower normal limit, p = 0.011) were significant factors relating to tumor enlargement in the multivariate analysis. In a subset of patients aged <40 years, a low detailed TSH score (<3) was an independent factor against tumor enlargement (p = 0.039). Only 22 patients (0.8%) experienced novel lymph node metastasis; the 5-, 10-, and 15-year node metastasis rates were very low, at 0.9%, 1.1%, and 1.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Young patients with PTMC are more likely to experience tumor growth. Mild TSH suppression to achieve a low normal range may prevent carcinoma enlargement; however, prospective studies are needed to draw more reliable conclusions.

Active Surveillance of Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Frequency and Time Course of the Six Most Common Tumor Volume Kinetic Patterns

Background: The change in size of the papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) nodule during active surveillance has traditionally been characterized as either stable, increasing, or decreasing based on changes in maximal tumor diameter or tumor volume. More recently, it has been observed that the changes in tumor size observed during observation are more complex with tumor volume kinetic patterns that can be characterized either as stable (Pattern I), early increase in volume (Pattern II), later increase in volume (Pattern III), early increase in volume followed by stability (Pattern IV), stability followed by an increase in volume (Pattern V), or a decrease in tumor volume (Pattern VI). Methods: The frequency, time course, and clinical correlates of these six tumor volume kinetic patterns were analyzed in a cohort of 483 patients with low-risk PTC up to 1.5 cm in maximal diameter followed with active surveillance at our center for a median of 3.7 years. Results: The cumulative incidence of an increase in tumor volume for the entire cohort was 15.9% [confidence interval (CI) 11.8-20.0] at 5 years. At 5 years, most tumors demonstrated stability (78.8%, Pattern I) with 10.0% showing early growth (Pattern II), 4.1% late growth (Pattern III), 1.9% growth then stability (Pattern IV), 0.6% stability then growth (Pattern V), and 5.6% with a decrease in tumor volume (Pattern VI). Tumor volume doubling time during exponential growth significantly differed across the kinetic patterns, with median values of 2.4, 7.1, and 3.3 years for Patterns II, III, and IV, respectively (p < 0.01). Similarly, the time to a change in tumor volume was significantly different across the kinetic patterns, with median values of 1.5, 3, 1.6, 4.7, and 4.1 years for Patterns II, III, IV, V, and VI, respectively (analysis of variance, p < 0.01). Clinical correlates at baseline were not associated with tumor volume kinetic pattern. Conclusions: These six kinetic tumor volume patterns provide a comprehensive description of the changes in PTC tumor volume observed during the first 5 years of active surveillance.

Successful dose escalation of lenvatinib for thyroid cancer after disease progression

PURPOSE

Lenvatinib is started at a standard dose, continuing with dose reduction and interruption, balancing between efficacy and adverse events (AEs). Because few drugs are available for thyroid cancer, efforts for continuing treatment with one agent, such as "dose escalation (DE)", are made. The dose is increased, aiming to regain the anti-tumor effect after dose reduction. The effects of lenvatinib DE in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients are reported.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The efficacy of lenvatinib DE in DTC patients using the serum thyroglobulin (Tg) level and management of AEs was investigated.

RESULTS

A total of 70 DE episodes in 33 patients were investigated. The median increased dose was 2.0 (1.0-14.0) mg, increased from 8.6 (2-16) mg to 10.1 (6-24) mg. The serum Tg level decreased in 53 DE episodes. Though the serum Tg level in 17 DE episodes was not decreased, the Tg rate of increase was decreased in 7 of these DE episodes using the Tg-doubling rate. Overall, clinical benefit was seen in 60 (86%) DE episodes. AEs that could not be controlled after DEs were seen in only 16% of cases. No intolerable AEs were observed in patients who received more drug holidays at the time of DEs compared to two times before the DEs.

CONCLUSION

DE may become one of the standard treatment strategies after disease progression if AEs are well managed. Drug holidays may be a key for successfully controlling AEs with DE. DE can be useful for controlling progressive disease with increasing Tg levels.

Prognostic significance of patient age in papillary thyroid carcinoma with no high-risk features

Older age is recognized as a predictor of poor prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. However, young age is associated with disease progression of PTC measuring 1 cm or smaller in patients on active surveillance. In this study, we investigated the relationship between patient age and prognosis of PTC belonging to very low-, low-, and intermediate-risk groups based on the guidelines published by the Japan Association of Endocrine Surgery in 2018. We enrolled 4,870 PTC patients with no high-risk features and assigned each to one of three categories: very low risk (N = 1,161), low risk (N = 1,746), and intermediate risk (N = 1,963). In very low-risk patients, the local recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate of young patients (<55 years) was significantly worse (p = 0.0437) than that of older patients (≥55 years). In low-risk patients, although age did not affect local recurrence, older patients were more likely to show distant recurrence on univariate (p = 0.0005) and multivariate analyses (p = 0.0017). In the intermediate-risk series, the local RFS rate of older patients tended to be poor (p = 0.0538), and older age was significantly associated with distant RFS (univariate, p = 0.0356; multivariate, p = 0.0439) and carcinoma death (univariate, p < 0.0001; multivariate, not done because of no other suitable factors). The prognostic significance of patient age depends on risk classification: younger age significantly predicts local recurrence in very low-risk PTC, while older age predicts worse prognosis in low- and intermediate-risk patients. These findings indicate that young age is related to rapid growth in early-phase PTC.

Observational management of papillary microcarcinoma appearing in the remnant thyroid after hemithyroidectomy

Active surveillance for papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) initiated in Japan is becoming adopted worldwide as a management option. However, it remains unclear how to manage newly appearing PTMCs in the remnant thyroid after hemithyroidectomy. We investigated the outcomes of similar observational management (OM) for PTMCs appearing in the remnant thyroid after hemithyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and benign thyroid nodules. Eighty-three patients were newly diagnosed with PTMC in the remnant thyroid between January 1998 and March 2017. Of these, 42 patients underwent OM with >3 times ultrasound examinations. Their initial diagnoses were PTC (initially malignant group) in 37 patients and benign nodule (initially benign group) in 5 patients. We calculated the tumor volume doubling rate (TV-DR) during OM for each PTMC. The TV-DR (/year) was <-0.1, -0.1-0.1, 0.1-0.5, and >0.5 in 12, 19, 5, and 6 patients, respectively. The TV-DRs in both groups did not statistically differ, but six patients (16%) in the initially malignant group showed moderate growth (TV-DR >0.5/year). They underwent conversion surgery and none of them had further recurrence. The remaining 36 patients retained OM without disease progression. The TV-DR in the initially malignant group was not significantly associated with patients' backgrounds or their initial clinicopathological features. None of the patients in this study showed distant metastases/recurrences or died of thyroid carcinoma. Although a portion of PTMCs appearing after hemithyroidectomy for thyroid malignancy are moderately progressive, OM may be acceptable as a management option for PTMCs appearing in the remnant thyroid after hemithyroidectomy.

Predictors of Recurrence After Sub-total or Near-total Resection of Vestibular Schwannoma: Importance of Tumor Volume and Ventral Extension

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictors of remnant tumor regrowth and need for salvage therapy after less than gross total resection (GTR) of vestibular schwannoma (VS).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective chart review.

SETTING

Tertiary neurotologic referral center.

PATIENTS

Patients who underwent VS resection between 2008 and 2019 either with GTR, near total resection (NTR), and subtotal resection (STR).

INTERVENTIONS

Microsurgical resection, salvage radiosurgery.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Regrowth free interval, salvage free interval, tumor doubling rate.

RESULTS

Three hundred eighty five cases (GTR = 236, NTR = 77, and STR = 71) from 2008 to 2019 were included. STR cohort had much larger and complex tumors with significant differences in tumor volume, ventral extension and brainstem compression (p  < 0.001). On single predictor analysis, tumor volume, ventral extension, brainstem compression as well as STR strategy was associated with significant increased risk of regrowth and need for salvage therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed STR strategy as significant predictor of regrowth (hazard ratio 3.79, p  < 0.0005). Absolute remnant volume and extent of resection (EOR) did not predict regrowth. A small proportion of cases (NTR = 4%, STR = 15%) eventually needed salvage radiosurgery with excellent ultimate local tumor control with no known recurrence to date.

CONCLUSIONS

Conservative surgical strategy employing NTR or STR can be employed safely in large and complex VS. While there is increased risk of regrowth in the STR cohort, excellent local control can be achieved with appropriate use of salvage radiosurgery. No disceret radiologic or operative predictors of regrowth were identified.

Sonographic assessment of minor extrathyroidal extension of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma involving the posterior thyroid capsule

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine sonographic features and clinical significance of minor extrathyroidal extension (ETE) to the posterior thyroid capsule in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the records of 506 PTMC patients consisting of 151 patients with minor ETE and 355 patients without ETE. Significant clinicoradiologic features associated with ETE were identified by logistic regression analyses. The diagnostic performance of sonographic features, including the presence of capsular abutment, capsular abutment degree (< 25%, 25-50%, ≥ 50%), and protrusion, were assessed for the diagnosis of posterior minor ETE. Interobserver agreement was calculated.

RESULTS

PTMC patients with posterior minor ETE were more likely to have lymphovascular invasion and lateral neck lymph node metastasis (OR = 2.636, 95%CI: 1.754, 3.963 and OR = 2.897, 95%CI: 1.069, 7.848). Regarding the diagnostic performance, the capsular abutment yielded the highest sensitivity (81.5%), followed by ≥ 25% abutment, protrusion, and ≥ 50% abutment (57.0%, 21.9%, and 4.6%, respectively), with similar levels of diagnostic accuracy (71.3-75.1%). The specificity was highest for the sonographic feature of ≥ 50% abutment (99.7%), followed by protrusion, ≥ 25% abutment, and capsular abutment (97.8%, 82.0%, and 68.7%, respectively). Abutment assessment had a moderate interobserver agreement (K = 0.705), and abutment degree and protrusion assessment had a fair and slight interobserver agreement (K = 0.553 and 0.287).

CONCLUSIONS

Sonographic features of posterior capsular abutment are sensitive and reliable for diagnosis of posterior minor ETE and are associated with lymphovascular invasion and lateral neck lymph node metastasis in PTMC patients. The assessment of posterior minor ETE is important for considering candidates for active surveillance among PTMC patients.

KEY POINTS

• PTMC patients with posterior minor ETE were more likely to have lymphovascular invasion and lateral neck lymph node metastasis. • Sonographic features of posterior capsular abutment are sensitive and reliable for the diagnosis of posterior minor ETE. • The assessment of posterior minor ETE is important for considering candidates for active surveillance among PTMC patients.

Criteria for follow-up of thyroid nodules diagnosed as follicular neoplasm without molecular testing - The experience of a high-volume thyroid centre in Japan

BACKGROUND

Clinical management of follicular neoplasms (FNs) using molecular testing of thyroid-aspirated materials is not routinely performed in Japan. This article aims to identify low-risk FN nodules that can be followed up without molecular testing.

METHODS

The relationship between preoperative findings, factors influencing surgical decision, and the risk of malignancy (ROM) was examined in 356 thyroid nodules with cytological diagnosis of FN at Kuma Hospital from January to December 2020.

RESULTS

ROMs of FN with cytology results favouring malignancy (41.2%) were significantly higher than those favouring benign (7.7%) or borderline (8.2%) (p < .001). Moreover, ROMs of FN with ultrasonography results of high suspicion (54.5%) were significantly higher than those with low (4.5%) or intermediate suspicion (0%) (p < .0001). There was a large difference in overall ROM in tumours bordering 30 mm in size (<30 mm; 3.6%, ≥30 mm; 20.0%). ROMs of FNs with a tumour volume doubling rate (TVDR) of 1.0/year or more (28.6%) were higher than those of FNs with a lower TVDR (9.9%) (p < .05). The ROMs of FNs with or without one or more of the following four findings suggestive of malignancy: cytological findings favouring malignancy, ultrasonography findings of high suspicion, tumour size ≥30 mm, and TV-DR ≥1.0/year, were 14.6% and 1.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

FNs with no cytological findings favouring malignancy, no ultrasonography findings of high suspicion, tumour size <30 mm and TV-DR <1.0/year, are considered low risk and can be followed up without the need for molecular testing.

Long-term outcomes of cytologically benign thyroid tumors: a retrospective analysis of 3,102 patients at a single institution

Some thyroid tumors that are cytologically diagnosed as benign may be pathologically diagnosed as malignant. Here, we investigated the long-term outcomes of patients with thyroid tumors with benign cytology, and the factors for malignancy. We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 3,102 patients with thyroid tumors >1 cm cytologically diagnosed as benign at our hospital during a 1-year period from January 2007. The median follow-up duration for all patients was 68.7 (range 0.0-168.7) months. Immediate surgery and delayed surgery were performed in 393 and 148 patients, respectively. Eventually, 541 (17.4%) of the 3,102 patients underwent a thyroidectomy, and 2,561 (82.6%) were observed without surgery. Among the surgically treated patients, the tumors of 525 (97.0%) and 16 (3.0%) were pathologically diagnosed as benign and malignant, respectively. There was no significant difference in age, gender, tumor size, serum thyroglobulin level at surgery, or the tumor volume-doubling rate (TV-DR) between the benign and malignant cases. Only the ultrasonographic findings based on our hospital's classification system were directly and significantly linked to pathological diagnosis (p < 0.01). Among the tumors of the 667 patients who were followed without surgery for >10 years, 89.9% remained unchanged and 7.2% were reduced in size. Ultrasonographic evaluation provides important information for therapeutic decision-making regarding surgery versus observation for cytologically benign tumors.

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: Is active surveillance always enough?

The incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has increased over recent decades. This apparent epidemic has been attributed to the overdiagnosis of small PTC ≤10 mm in diameter (papillary thyroid microcarcinoma [PTMC]) incidentally detected on imaging for unrelated presentations. Although most PTMCs follow an indolent disease course, there is a small but significant proportion of cases that display more biologically aggressive features such as early metastasis and lymph node involvement. Management of PTMC diagnosed preoperatively should be distinguished from managing those PTMCs incidentally discovered after thyroidectomy. Here, we will focus on the challenge of managing the preoperative patient. Current guidelines recommend against routine biopsy of nodules ≤10 mm, even if they display highly suspicious features on ultrasound; however, it is not known how to identify those PTMCs at higher risk of disease progression. In view of their good prognosis even without surgical resection, active surveillance has emerged as an alternative to operative management for low-risk PTMC without lymph node involvement or distant metastasis. This review aims to summarise active surveillance data for PTMC and identify clinical features that may differentiate the indolent majority from those PTMCs that exhibit early disease progression and metastasis.

Pregnancy has no significant impact on the prognosis of differentiated thyroid cancer

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of pregnancy on differentiated thyroid carcinomas (DTC) behavior.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients diagnosed with DTC before or during pregnancy and treated with standard therapy. In women diagnosed with DTC before pregnancy, we evaluated the occurrence of progression according to categories of response to therapy based on imaging and non-stimulated thyroglobulin (TG) levels.

RESULTS

Of 96 analyzed patients, 76 became pregnant after DTC treatment and 20 were diagnosed with DTC during pregnancy. Among women who became pregnant after a DTC diagnosis, no difference was observed regarding response to therapy before and after pregnancy. Disease progression after pregnancy was documented in six of these patients, while seven of them presented progression before pregnancy but were only treated after delivery. Patients with DTC diagnosed during pregnancy had a higher rate of distant metastases at diagnosis (30%) compared with the patients who became pregnant after DTC diagnosis (9.2%, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Pregnancy had no impact on the natural course of DTC. Disease progression after pregnancy was limited and probably related to more aggressive disease and higher risk stratification at diagnosis. Still, mild disease progression may have occurred asymptomatically in some patients.

Rethinking Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancers < 1cm (Papillary Microcarcinomas): An Evidence Review for Recalibrating Diagnostic Thresholds and/or Alternative Labels

Background: Recalibrating diagnostic thresholds or using alternative labels may mitigate overdiagnosis and overtreatment of papillary microcarcinoma (mPTC). We aimed at identifying and collating relevant epidemiological evidence on mPTC, to assess the case for recalibration and/or new labels. Methods: We searched EMBASE and PubMed databases from inception to December 2020 for natural history, autopsy, diagnostic drift, and diagnostic reproducibility studies. Where a relevant systematic review was pre-identified, only new articles were additionally included. Non-English articles were excluded. One author screened titles and abstracts. Two authors screened full text articles, performed quality assessments, and extracted data. We undertook narrative synthesis of included evidence (pooled estimates from systematic reviews and single estimates from primary studies). Results: One systematic review of patients undergoing active surveillance found that after 5 years of follow-up, 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI 4.4-6.4%]) of the mPTC lesions had increased in size by ≥3 mm, and 1.6% [CI 1.1-2.4%] of patients had lymph node metastases. Among 7 new primary studies (including 3 updates on 2 studies included in the systematic review), 1-5% of patients undergoing active surveillance had lymph node metastases after a median follow-up of 1-10 years. One systematic review found that subclinical thyroid cancer incidentally discovered at autopsy is relatively common, with a pooled prevalence of 11.2% [CI 6.7-16.1%] among studies that examined the whole thyroid. Four diagnostic drift studies evaluated the new classification of non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP). Three studies of cases previously diagnosed as papillary thyroid cancer found 1.3-2.3% were reclassified as NIFTP (reclassifications were from follicular variation of papillary thyroid cancer [FVPTC]). One study of 48 cases previously diagnosed as mPTC found that 23.5% were reclassified as NIFTP. Thirteen reproducibility studies of papillary thyroid lesions found substantial variation in the histopathological diagnosis of thyroid lesions, including FVPTC and NIFTP classifications (no study evaluated mPTC). Conclusions: This review supports consideration of recalibrating diagnostic thresholds and/or alternative labels for low-risk mPTC.

Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology Implementation and Malignancy Rates in Children and Adolescents Based on Japanese Guidelines: The Fukushima Health Management Survey

Background: The thyroid ultrasound examination (TUE) program was initiated among the residents of Fukushima Prefecture aged ≤18 years at the time of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In this program, fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) was performed only in cases that conformed to the Japanese guidelines for the management of thyroid nodules. To analyze the suitability of the protocol in the TUE, we analyzed the implementation rate of FNAC and the detection rate of thyroid malignancy. Methods: There were 299,939 and 269,659 voluntary participants in the Preliminarily Baseline Survey (PLBS), first-round survey, and the first Full-scale Survey (FSS), second-round survey, of the TUE, respectively. FNAC is recommended for nodules with diameters 5.1-10.0 mm showing sonographic characteristics that are strongly suspicious for thyroid carcinoma; diameters 10.1-20.0 mm with characteristics that are suspicious for carcinoma; and all nodules with diameters >20 mm. Results: In the PLBS and the first FSS, 1362 and 1382 cases with thyroid nodules sized ≥5.1 mm in diameter were found, respectively. The implementation rates of FNAC in the PLBS were 20.1%, 63.2%, and 87.7% of subjects with nodules sized 5.1-10.0, 10.1-20.0, and ≥20.1 mm in diameter, respectively. In the first FSS, the FNAC implementation rates were 7.3%, 26.0%, and 50.0% in the subjects with nodules with diameters 5.1-10.0, 10.1-20.0, and ≥20.1 mm, respectively. In the subjects who underwent FNAC, the detection rates of malignant and suspected malignant nodules were 21.4% and 34.1% in the PLBS and first FSS, respectively. In the first FSS, malignant or suspected malignant nodules were found in 0.63% and 0.40% of subjects who had nodules of diameters ≤5.0 mm and 5.1-10.0 mm in the PLBS, respectively. In contrast, in the subjects with nodules measuring ≥10.0 mm in diameter in the PLBS, no malignancies were detected. Conclusions: The use of a protocol that conformed to the Japanese guidelines led to a reduction in the FNAC implementation rate and an increase in the malignancy detection rate in smaller nodules. In addition, the use of this strategy enabled us to avoid detection failure of thyroid carcinomas >10.0 mm.

Tumor Volume Doubling Time in Active Surveillance of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Multicenter Cohort Study in Korea

Background: Some papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) may progress with tumor enlargement or development of new lymph node (LN) metastasis during active surveillance (AS). This study evaluated the relevant predictors of disease progression, especially new cervical LN metastasis. Methods: This was a long-term follow-up study conducted using a previous multicenter cohort of AS in Korea. After excluding 54 (14.2%) patients with a short follow-up duration, 326 PTMC patients were evaluated for tumor kinetics, including changes in tumor volume (TV) and TV doubling time (TVDT). Results: During a median follow-up duration of 4.9 years, 17 (5.2%, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.7-7.6%) patients showed a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm after a median of 4.0 years follow-up, while 9 (2.8%, CI 1.0-4.5%) developed new LN metastasis after a median of 2.2 years follow-up. New cervical LN metastasis occurred exclusively of a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The prevalence of new development of LN metastasis was higher in patients with TVDT <5 years (7.4%) than in those with TV ≥50% (3.2%). Furthermore, only TVDT <5 years was significantly associated with LN metastasis (p = 0.002). In univariate and multivariate analyses, TVDT <5 years was an independent risk factor for disease progression with respect to new development of LN metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.51, CI 1.73-24.50; p = 0.002) and tumor enlargement (HR = 20.89, CI 5.78-75.48; p < 0.001). Finally, 86 (22.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery, and the most common reason was patient anxiety. Conclusions: TVDT <5 years is a predictor of disease progression during AS in terms of new LN metastasis development as well as tumor enlargement. Determination of TVDT in the early phase of AS could help in predicting disease progression, tailoring follow-up intensity of AS and in determining if early surgical intervention is needed.

Assessing mPTC Progression during Active Surveillance: Volume or Diameter Increase?

Active surveillance (AS) is considered an alternative to immediate surgery in micropapillary thyroid carcinoma (mPTC). However, the definition of clinical mPTC progression during AS is controversial. We evaluated changes in tumor size using both tumor diameters and volume in 109 patients with mPTC followed in an AS protocol for a mean period of 31 ± 18 months. At the time of data lock, 19/109 (17.4%) mPTC reached and maintained a volume increase of ≥50%. However, only 3/19 (15.7%) showed progression, according to the diameter increase. The remaining 16 showed a slight diameter growth without reaching the original protocol progression criteria. The mean mPTC growth rate in stable cases was 0.37 mm³/month, while it was significantly greater in the mPTC, which achieved a volume change ≥50% with respect to the other. The two mPTC that developed a significant diameter increase had a growth rate of 41 and 18 mm³/month. Instead, the growth rates of the three mPTC that developed lymph node metastases were 0, 2.5 and 16 mm³/month. The ≥50% volume increase appears to be a too sensitive marker of disease progression, with a downstream higher surgery rate. The assessment of growth rate could distinguish mPTC with high and low growth rates, which would allow us to tailor the algorithm of the evaluations to a more appropriate timing.

How to identify indolent thyroid tumors unlikely to recur and cause cancer death immediately after surgery-Risk stratification of papillary thyroid carcinoma in young patients

Current histopathological diagnosis methods cannot distinguish the two types of thyroid carcinoma: clinically significant carcinomas with a potential risk of recurrence, metastasis, and cancer death, and clinically insignificant carcinomas with a slow growth rate. Both thyroid tumors are diagnosed as "carcinoma" in current pathology practice. The clinician usually recommends surgery to the patient and the patient often accepts it because of cancer terminology. The treatment for these clinically insignificant carcinomas does not benefit the patient and negatively impacts society. The author proposed risk stratification of thyroid tumors using the growth rate (Ki-67 labeling index), which accurately differentiates four prognostically relevant risk groups based on the Ki-67 labeling index, ≥30%, ≥10 and <30%, >5 and <10%, and ≤5%. Indolent thyroid tumors with an excellent prognosis have the following four features: young age, early-stage (T1-2 M0), curatively treated, and low proliferation index (Ki-67 labeling index of ≤5%), and are unlikely to recur, metastasize, or cause cancer death. Accurate identification of these indolent tumors helps clinicians select more conservative treatments to avoid unnecessary aggressive (total thyroidectomy followed by radio-active iodine) treatments. Clinicians can alleviate the fears of patients by confirming these four features, including the low proliferation rate, in a pathology report immediately after surgery when patients are most concerned.

Position paper from the Japan Thyroid Association task force on the management of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (T1aN0M0) in adults

The incidence of thyroid carcinoma has been increasing worldwide. This is interpreted as an increase in the incidental detection of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs). However, mortality has not changed, suggesting overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Prospective clinical trials of active surveillance for low-risk PTMC (T1aN0M0) have been conducted in two Japanese institutions since the 1990s. Based on the favorable outcomes of these trials, active surveillance has been gradually adopted worldwide. A task force on the management of PTMC in adults organized by the Japan Thyroid Association therefore conducted a systematic review and has produced the present position paper based on the scientific evidence concerning active surveillance. This paper indicates evidence for the increased incidence of PTMC, favorable surgical outcomes for low-risk PTMC, recommended criteria for diagnosis using fine needle aspiration cytology, and evaluation of lymph node metastasis (LNM), extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and distant metastasis. Active surveillance has also been reported with a low incidence of disease progression and no subsequent recurrence or adverse events on survival if conversion surgery was performed at a slightly advanced stage. Active surveillance is a safe and valid strategy for PTMC, because it might preserve physical quality of life and reduce 10-year medical costs. However, some points should be noted when performing active surveillance. Immediate surgery is needed for PTMC showing high-risk features, such as clinical LNM, ETE or distant metastasis. Active surveillance should be performed under an appropriate medical team and should be continued for life.

Favorable outcomes of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma concurrent with Graves' disease after radioactive iodine therapy

Graves' disease (GD) may coexist with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). The main purpose of this study was to evaluate whether treatment with radioactive iodine (RAI) may cause acute exacerbation of PTMC concurrent with GD or not. From the medical records of 10,257 GD patients who underwent RAI therapy between 2000-2017, 12 subjects with concurrent PTMC were retrieved. Further, 49 patients with concurrent GD and PTMC who underwent no RAI administration throughout their clinical course were enrolled as controls. Size of the PTMC nodules was evaluated based on maximal diameter and tumor volume-doubling rate (TV-DR). Among the 12 subjects who underwent RAI therapy (median dose, 13 mCi), 2 showed tumors >10 mm in maximal diameter with slow growth for more than 10 years, while the other 10 showed tumors with maximal diameter ≤10 mm. No subject showed any clinical findings of nodal or distant metastasis during the follow-up periods (0.4-11.5 years) before surgery or during active surveillance. No significant differences were observed in the TV-DR values (median, 0.044/year; range, -0.81-1.40) between the study subjects and controls (median, 0.025/year; range, -0.70-1.29; p = 0.69). When comparing the TV-DR before and after RAI administration in 3 individuals in particular, in whom PTMC were cytologically confirmed before RAI administration and whose prospective follow-up data were available, tumor progression was observed to be stable or decreased after RAI administration. There were no acute exacerbations or unfavorable outcomes of concurrent PTMC and GD after low-dose RAI administration.

Sorafenib and Lenvatinib Treatment for Metastasis/Recurrence of Radioactive Iodine-refractory Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIM

Radioactive iodine-refractory differentiated thyroid carcinoma (RR-DTC) has been treated with multi-kinase inhibitors (MKIs), e.g., sorafenib (SOR) and lenvatinib (LEN). We analyzed the outcomes of RR-DTC patients who underwent SOR or LEN treatment at Kuma Hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 21 and 18 patients treated with SOR and LEN, respectively.

RESULTS

The incidence of partial response in the LEN group was significantly higher than that in the SOR group. Serum thyroglobulin significantly decreased from the beginning of treatment to 1 month later in the LEN group (not in the SOR group). The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was significantly decreased at 1 month later in both groups. An NLR ≥3 at the start of MKI treatment had a prognostic impact.

CONCLUSION

For RR-DTC, LEN could be more effective than SOR, at least in the short term. The first-line drug should be selected based on other factors (e.g., adverse events, patient background).

Prognostic Significance of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma Having Distant Metastasis: A Comparison With Thyroglobulin-doubling Rate and Tumor Volume-doubling Rate

BACKGROUND/AIM

To date, thyroglobulin-doubling rate (Tg-DR) and tumor volume-doubling rate (TV-DR) of metastatic lesions have been identified as dynamic prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). In this study, we investigated the prognostic impact for another dynamic factor, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), for DTC with distant metastasis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 321 patients in total, and NLR at the first detection of distant metastasis (initial NLR) was collected for 312.

RESULTS

Patients with initial NLR >3 had a significantly poorer cause-specific survival than those with initial NLR ≤3. On multivariate analysis, initial NLR >3 was recognized as an independent prognostic factor together with Tg-DR >1/year, TV-DR >1/year, radioactive iodine-refractory distant metastasis, and distant metastasis to organs other than the lung.

CONCLUSION

Careful observation and active therapies, including multitarget kinase inhibitors, are recommended for patients with NLR >3 at the first detection of distant metastasis or during follow-up.

Lessons learned from conducting disease monitoring in low-dose exposure conditions as a counter-measure after a nuclear disaster

The complex disaster of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident caused concern about their various health impacts. Many types of intervention are desired as a countermeasure, depending on the phase of the disaster cycle. The importance of developing and applying codes of conduct has recently been emphasized for post-disaster investigations. Thyroid examination as a type of cancer screening survey was launched from October 2011 after the Fukushima nuclear accident as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey. In this article, we reviewed the results of three rounds of thyroid examination from 2011 to 2018, and summarized the points to consider in the health survey conducted after the Fukushima nuclear accident. Large-scale mass screening by ultrasound thyroid examination resulted in many cancer diagnoses, >200 cases from a large reservoir of thyroid cancer that goes mainly unnoticed without screening. To prevent the harms of such over-diagnosis, we should be aware of the disadvantage of mass-screening based on the expected natural history of thyroid cancer. A change in strategy from mass-screening to individual monitoring is urgently needed according to international recommendations that are opposed to thyroid ultrasound cancer screening even after a nuclear disaster. To guarantee autonomy and informed choice on post-disaster disease monitoring for residents in a disaster-zone, it is important to set protocol participation and on a voluntary code of conduct basis.

Molecular Pathology of Non-familial Follicular Epithelial-Derived Thyroid Cancer in Adults: From RAS/BRAF-like Tumor Designations to Molecular Risk Stratification

This review addresses the impact of molecular alterations on the diagnosis and prognosis of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), including papillary, follicular, and well-differentiated carcinoma NOS, as well as oncocytic neoplasms. The molecular characterization of DTC is based upon the well-established dichotomy of BRAF-like and RAS-like designations, together with a remaining third group, less homogeneous, composed of non-BRAF-/non-RAS-like tumors. The role of BRAF V600E mutation in risk stratification is discussed in the clinico-pathological context, namely, staging and invasive features of classic papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and histopathological variants carrying an excellent prognosis (microPTC) or a guarded prognosis, including the aggressive variants tall cell and hobnail cell PTCs. In follicular patterned tumors, namely, follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC), with or without oncocytic features, the most prevalent molecular alteration are RAS mutations that do not carry prognostic significance. The only genetic alteration that has been proven to play a role in risk stratification of PTC and FTC is TERT promoter (TERTp) mutation.

Marked Decrease Over Time in Conversion Surgery After Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Background: Active surveillance for low-risk papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) of the thyroid is an accepted and safe management strategy. However, some patients undergo conversion surgery after the initiation of active surveillance for various reasons. We investigated the reasons for conversion surgery and whether and how they changed over time. Methods: We enrolled 2288 patients with PMC who underwent active surveillance. Of these, 162 (7.1%) underwent conversion surgery >12 months after initiating active surveillance due to disease progression (57 patients), patient preference (43 patients), physician preference (31 patients), other associated thyroid or parathyroid diseases (24 patients), and other reasons (7 patients). We analyzed cumulative conversion rates not only in the whole cohort but also in the first three major subsets based on the reasons for surgery. We also divided our whole cohort into two groups based on the period of active surveillance commencement: the first-half group (February 2005-November 2011; 561 patients) and the second-half group (December 2011-June 2017; 1727 patients). Results: The criteria for PMC progression did not differ between the first- and second-half groups. The proportion of female patients in the physician preference group was significantly higher than that in the disease progression and the patient preference groups. Tumor size at surgery was larger, and tumor volume-doubling rate was higher in the disease progression group than in the other two groups. Patients in the second-half group were significantly less likely to undergo conversion surgery than those in the first-half group. Furthermore, conversion surgery rates in the second-half group were significantly lower than those in the first-half group in the patient preference, physician preference, and disease progression groups. Conclusions: Patients with PMC in the second-half group were significantly less likely to undergo conversion surgery than those in the first-half group regardless of the reason. This is probably because data accumulation of favorable outcomes with active surveillance significantly contributed to physicians' confidence and patients' trust and understanding of this disease.

Indications and Strategy for Active Surveillance of Adult Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: Consensus Statements from the Japan Association of Endocrine Surgery Task Force on Management for Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Background: The question of how to manage patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC; T1aN0M0) has recently become an important clinical issue. Two Japanese centers have conducted prospective clinical trials of active surveillance (AS) for low-risk PTMC since the 1990s, reporting favorable outcomes. This policy has thus seen gradual adoption worldwide to avoid overtreatment. Not all PTMCs are suitable for AS, however, and many physicians still hesitate to apply the management policy in daily clinical practice. A task force on management for PTMC created by the Japan Association of Endocrine Surgery collected and analyzed bibliographic evidence and has produced the present consensus statements regarding indications and concrete strategies for AS to facilitate the management of adult patients diagnosed with low-risk PTMC. Summary: These statements provide indications for AS in adult patients with T1aN0M0 low-risk PTMC. PTMCs with clinical lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) paralysis due to carcinoma invasion, or protrusion into the tracheal lumen warrant immediate surgery. Tumors suspected of aggressive subtypes on cytology are recommended for immediate surgery. Immediate surgery is also recommended for tumors adherent to the trachea or located along the course of the RLN. Practical strategies include diagnosis, decision-making, follow-up, and monitoring related to the implementation of AS. The rate of low-risk PTMC progression is lower in older patients. However, we recommend continuing AS as long as circumstances permit. Future tasks in optimizing management for low-risk PTMC are also described, including molecular markers and patient-reported outcomes. Conclusions: An appropriate multidisciplinary team is necessary to accurately evaluate primary tumors and lymph nodes at the beginning of and during AS, and to adequately reach a shared-decision with individual patients. If appropriately applied, AS of low-risk PTMC is a safe management strategy offering favorable outcomes and preserves quality of life at low cost.

Association of Patient Age With Progression of Low-risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Under Active Surveillance: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Active surveillance is sometimes considered as a disease management option for individuals with small, low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Objective

To assess whether patient age is associated with progression of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (tumor growth or incident metastatic disease) in adults under active surveillance.

Evidence Review

Eight electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Emcare, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and ClincalTrials.gov) were searched from inception to March 2019, supplemented with a hand search. Two investigators independently screened citations, reviewed full-text articles, and abstracted data. Additional data were sought from authors. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed using incidence data (statistically adjusted for confounders and crude rates).

Findings

A total of 1658 unique citations were screened, and 62 full-text articles were reviewed, including 5 studies. Three studies included exclusively microcarcinomas and 2 included tumors up to 2 cm in maximal diameter. The mean age of participants was 51.0 to 55.2 years in 4 studies reporting this value. The mean or median follow-up was 5 years or more in 3 studies and approximately 2 years in 2 studies. The pooled risk ratio for tumor growth of 3 mm or more in maximal diameter in individuals aged 40 to 50 years compared with younger individuals was 0.51 when adjusted for confounders (95% CI, 0.29-0.89; 1619 patients, 2 studies), and the unadjusted risk ratio of this outcome for individuals 40 years or older was 0.55 (95% CI, 0.36-0.82; 2097 patients, 4 studies). In adults aged 40 to 45 years, the unadjusted risk ratio for any tumor volume increase compared with younger individuals was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.51-0.83; 1232 patients, 4 studies). The pooled risk ratio for incident nodal metastases in individuals 40 years or older was 0.22 (95% CI, 0.10-0.47; 1806 patients, 3 studies); however, in a secondary analysis, the risk difference was not significantly different. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity in any of the meta-analyses. There were no thyroid cancer-related deaths nor incident distant metastases.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that older age may be associated with a reduced risk of primary papillary thyroid carcinoma tumor growth under active surveillance. Incident metastatic disease is uncommon during active surveillance.

Clinical management of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is well known to have an indolent nature with an excellent prognosis. Surgery has been the standard treatment during the past several decades, with metastasis or recurrence being exceedingly rare. Active surveillance (AS) is a new risk-adapted approach alternative to surgery that involves just watching, but not giving any treatment unless needed, not addressing the tumor itself. The patients for whom AS is adopted spend their time "with tumors." In follow-up, it is possible that alarming factors such as tumor progression appear, causing anxiety about progression. Furthermore, endless follow-up is needed. However, considering the indolent nature and unfavorable events such as surgical complications caused by surgery, AS is a good management plan for selected PTMC patients. Decision making balancing between the prognosis and unfavorable events is needed for the treatment plan. Consideration of the factors and timing of surgical conversion is also needed. In this review article, how AS should be adopted as a new management option that is an alternative to surgery, which has been the absolute choice of treatment up to recently, is discussed. Concurrently, the characteristics of the two treatment strategies are reviewed, while introducing the background that explains how AS came to attention.

Risk factors of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma that predispose patients to local recurrence

BACKGROUND

Currently, less aggressive treatment or even active surveillance of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is widely accepted and recommended as a therapeutic management option. However, there are some concerns about these approaches. We investigated whether there are any demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics of PTMC patients that are easy to obtain and clinically available before surgery to help clinicians make proper therapeutic decisions.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review of 5,021 patients with thyroid tumors surgically treated in one center in 2008-2018. Finally, 182 (3.62%) PTMC patients were selected (158 (86.8%) females and 24 (13.2%) males, mean age 48.8±15.4 years). We analyzed the disease-free survival (DFS) time of the PTMC patients according to demographic and histopathological parameters. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the relationships of demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics with aggressive histopathological features.

RESULTS

Age ≥55 years, hypoechogenicity, microcalcifications, irregular tumor shape, smooth margins and high vascularity significantly increased the risk for minimal extrathyroidal extension (minETE), lymph node metastasis (LNM), and capsular and vascular invasion (p<0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated a statistically significant risk of LNM (OR = 5.98, 95% CI: 2.32-15.38, p = 0.0002) and trends toward significantly higher rates of minETE and capsular and vascular invasion (OR = 2.24, 95% CI: 0.97-5.19, p = 0.056) in patients ≥55 years than in their younger counterparts. The DFS time was significantly shorter in patients ≥55 years (p = 0.015), patients with minETE and capsular and vascular invasion (p = 0.001 for all), patients with tumor size >5 mm (p = 0.021), and patients with LNM (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of microcalcifications, irregular tumor shape, blunt margins, hypoechogenicity and high vascularity in PTMC patients below 55 years and with tumor diameters below 5 mm may allow clinicians to select individuals with a low risk of local recurrence so that they can receive less aggressive management.

Thyroid Papillary Microtumor: Validation of the (Updated) Porto Proposal Assessing Sex Hormone Receptor Expression and Mutational BRAF Gene Status

Given the high incidence and excellent prognosis of many papillary thyroid microcarcinomas, the Porto proposal uses the designation papillary microtumor (PMT) for papillary microcarcinomas (PMCs) without risk factors to minimize overtreatment and patients' stress. To validate Porto proposal criteria, we examined a series of 190 PMC series, also studying sex hormone receptors and BRAF mutation. Our updated Porto proposal (uPp) reclassifies as PMT incidental PMCs found at thyroidectomy lacking the following criteria: (a) detected under the age of 19 years; (b) with multiple tumors measuring >1 cm adding up all diameters; and (c) with aggressive morphologic features (extrathyroidal extension, angioinvasion, tall, and/or hobnail cells). PMCs not fulfilling uPp criteria were considered "true" PMCs. A total of 102 PMCs were subclassified as PMT, 88 as PMC, with no age or sex differences between subgroups. Total thyroidectomy and iodine-131 therapy were significantly more common in PMC. After a median follow-up of 9.6 years, lymph node metastases, distant metastases, and mortality were only found in the PMC subgroup. No subgroup differences were found in calcifications or desmoplasia. Expression of estrogen receptor-α and estrogen receptor-β, progesterone receptor, and androgen receptor was higher in PMC than in nontumorous thyroid tissue. BRAF mutations were detected in 44.7% of PMC, with no differences between subgroups. In surgical specimens, the uPp is a safe pathology tool to identify those PMC with extremely low malignant potential. This terminology could reduce psychological stress associated with cancer diagnosis, avoid overtreatment, and be incorporated into daily pathologic practice.

Active surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas

In 1993, active surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) started in Kuma Hospital, Kobe, Japan. It has spread globally after the publishing of American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. During our hospital's active surveillance program, few patients (8.0%) showed tumor size enlargement ≥3 mm or the new appearance of node metastasis (3.8%) at 10-year follow-up. Conversion surgery was recommended for patients with disease progression. To date, no patients showed significant recurrence or metastasis or died with thyroid carcinoma when patients underwent active surveillance or after surgery due to PTMC progression. Unlike clinical papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), elderly patients' PTMCs were less progressive compared to those of young and middle-aged patients, indicating that elderly patients are strong candidates for the active surveillance of their PTMC. Although young patients' PTMCs are the most progressive, >50% and >75% of patients in their 20s and 30s would avoid conversion surgical treatment in their lifetime, respectively (according to estimated lifetime probability), indicating that such young patients are still candidates for active surveillance. It can thus be concluded that active surveillance is appropriate to be first management for PTMCs, based on the accumulation of favorable outcomes of PTMC patients who have undergone active surveillance, as well as the lower incidences of unfavorable events and lower medical cost than immediate surgery.

High rate incidence of post-surgical adverse events in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer who did not accept active surveillance

PURPOSE

To describe the outcomes and the incidence of adverse events following active surveillance (AS) versus immediate surgery in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated 286 patients who attended the Hospital de Clínicas, with a single thyroid nodule <1.5 cm classified as Bethesda category V or VI (PTC). Those patients with no aggressive features were considered as harboring a low-risk PTC and were offered AS or immediate surgery. For patients who opted for AS, surgery was recommended if tumor progression was observed. Post-operative adverse events were recorded for those patients treated with surgery (after AS or immediate surgery).

RESULTS

From 286 eligible patients, 164 harbored a low-risk PTC. Among these, 75% (n = 123) underwent immediate surgery and 25% (n = 41) opted for AS. Within the last group, increase in tumor size more than 3 mm was observed in 14.6 and 4.8% was diagnosed with lymph-node metastases after a median of 37.5 months (range, 12-65) of follow-up. One hundred and thirty five patients underwent surgery: in 123, it was immediate after diagnosis and in 12 after a median of 35 months (range, 12-65) of AS. Both groups had excellent oncological outcomes. The frequency of postoperative adverse events was 24.4%, which was permanent in 9.6% of cases. The immediate-surgery group presented higher incidence of permanent vocal cord paralysis (2.4 vs. 0%); permanent hypoparathyroidism (5.7 vs. 0%) and local complications (4 vs. 2.4%) compared with the AS group, all non-statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

The high incidence of postoperative complications observed in our media could be avoided if AS was performed as the initial approach in patients with low-risk PTCs. The frequency of tumor growth and LN metastases during AS was similar to other series.

Structural Doubling Time Predicts Overall Survival in Patients with Medullary Thyroid Cancer in Patients with Rapidly Progressive Metastatic Medullary Thyroid Cancer Treated with Molecular Targeted Therapies

Purpose: To evaluate the impact of structural disease progression of metastatic lesions after initial surgery on overall survival (OS) of patients presenting with metastatic medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). We used tumor volume doubling time (TVDT) as a marker of structural disease progression and aimed to correlate the average structural tumor volume doubling time (midDT) with OS in MTC patients after initial surgery. Methods: In this retrospective study, we examined the clinical characteristics; average tumor volume doubling times of neck, lung, and liver metastasis; and disease-specific survival of patients with metastatic MTC. Results: Tumor growth is constant in MTC metastasis, irrespective of location of the metastasis. The median correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were similar in lung metastasis (r = 0.91, r² = 0.95) and liver metastasis (r = 0.88, r² = 0.94), and comparable in neck metastasis (r = 0.73, r² = 0.85). Patients with metastatic MTC with a midDT ≤1 year have a worse prognosis than those with higher midDT (p = 0.002). Those with midDT ≤1 year had a median OS of 11.1 years [confidence interval (CI) 7.4-14.8 years]. In contrast, patients with midDT 1-3 years had a median OS of 16.5 years [CI 10.3-22.6 years]. All patients with midDT ≥3 survived by the end of the follow-up period. Preliminary results suggest that measurement of midDT can predict response to molecular targeted therapies. Conclusions: In conclusion, TVDT is a strong predictor of OS in patients with recurrent or metastatic MTC, can be used as a marker of progression, and potentially can help select patients who may benefit from molecular targeted therapy.

Kinetic analysis of the growth rate of sporadic and hereditary medullary thyroid carcinoma: comparing the postoperative calcitonin-doubling rate with the hypothetical preoperative tumor volume-doubling rate

Background

Our previous kinetic analyses of changes in the tumor volume (TV) of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas during active surveillance revealed that the tumors’ growth varied over time from rather rapid growth to shrinkage and that the hypothetical TV-doubling rates (DRs) before the patients’ presentation were much larger than their observed TV-DRs, indicating that rapid growth phases preceded their presentation. Whether this phenomenon also occurs in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) was unknown.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the cases of 46 MTC patients (18 hereditary, 28 sporadic; 9–80 years old at surgery, median 53.5 years; 19 males and 27 females) with elevated postoperative calcitonin (Ct) measured with the electrochemiluminescence immunoassay suggesting persistent disease. We calculated each patient’s Ct-DR and his/her hypothetical TV-DR, using the tumor size and age at surgery.

Results

Ct-DRs (/year) after surgery were > 0.5, 0.1–0.5, − 0.1–0.1, and < − 0.1 in 9, 21, 12, and 4 patients, respectively (median 0.17). The hypothetical TV-DRs (/year) before surgery were > 1, 0.5–1.0, 0.1–0.5 and < 0.1 in 11, 21, 14, and 0 patients, respectively (median 0.60). The hypothetical TV-DR was higher than the observed Ct-DR in 41 of the 46 MTC patients and all 18 patients with hereditary MTC, suggesting that a rapid growth phase preceded surgery in these patients.

Conclusions

In this series of MTC patients, the pre-surgery calculated hypothetical TV-DRs were significantly higher than the Ct-DRs observed post-surgery, suggesting that there were rapid growth periods before surgery in the vast majority of these MTC patients.

Tumor Volume Kinetic Analyses Might Explain Excellent Prognoses in Young Patients with Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Introduction

Young patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) generally have excellent prognoses despite their often-advanced disease status. The reasons for this excellent prognosis are poorly understood.

Objective

To investigate the natural history of PTC in young patients, we compared the observed tumor volume-doubling rate (TV-DR) with the hypothetical tumor volume-doubling rate (hTV-DR) before presentation in young PTC patients. DR is an inverse of the doubling time and indicates the number of doublings that occur in a unit of time. A negative value indicates the number of times the volume is reduced by half per unit time.

Methods

We enrolled 20 patients with the following characteristics: age ≤19 years, diagnosed with PTC according to the cytology results between 2013 and 2018 and followed-up with periodical ultrasound examinations for ≥3 months before surgery for various reasons. Seventeen patients later underwent surgery confirming the diagnosis. We calculated TV-DRs using serial measurements of tumor diameters after presentation and hTV-DRs using tumor diameters and patients' age at presentation, assuming that a single cancer cell was present at the patient's birth and that the tumor grew at a constant rate. These values indicate the lowest growth rates necessary for a single cancer cell to achieve the full tumor size at presentation.

Results

Thirteen patients had positive TV-DRs (/year) ranging from 0.09 to 1.89, indicating tumor growth, and the remaining seven patients had negative values (−0.08 to −1.21), indicating regression. The median TV-DR was 0.29. The hTV-DRs (1.48–2.66, median 1.71) were significantly larger than the TV-DRs (p < 0.001), indicating much faster growth before presentation.

Conclusions

These data suggest that deceleration of tumor growth had already occurred at presentation in the majority of the cases. This might explain why disease-specific survival is excellent despite frequent findings of advanced disease in young patients with PTC.