Meta-analysis of mortality risk in octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery operations

Surgical management of spinal pathologies in the octogenarian: a narrative review

Optimal management paradigms of spinal pathologies in the octogenarian population are controversial given the higher incidence of comorbidities with concern for poor prognosis and fear of increased complications associated with surgical management. In this narrative review, we aim to detail the complex clinical considerations when approaching odontoid screw fixation/instrumented fusion, spinal decompression, and spinal fusion in the octogenarian. Literature review was conducted via Google Scholar and PubMed databases, with literature selected based on statistical power and clinical relevance to the following pathologies/surgical techniques: odontoid fracture, surgical decompression, and surgical fusion in the octogenarian. The aforementioned pathologies were selected based on prevalence in the advanced-age population in which surgical screening techniques and management remain nonuniform. Preoperative evaluation of the octogenarian patient increasingly includes frailty, sarcopenia, and osteopenia/osteoporosis assessments. In cases of odontoid fracture, conservative management appears to provide beneficial clinical outcomes with lower rates of complication compared to surgery; however, rates of radiographic odontoid fusion are far lower in conservatively managed patients. Regarding surgical decompression and fusion, the presence of comorbidities may be more predictive of outcome rather than age status, with the advent of minimally invasive techniques providing safety and efficacy in the surgical management of this age cohort. Age status may be less pertinent than previously thought in the decision to pursue spinal surgery for odontoid fracture, spinal decompression, or spinal fusion; however, each of these procedures has respective risks and benefits that must be considered within the context of each patient's comorbidity profile.

Effect of surgeon's seniority and subspeciality interest on mortality after emergency laparotomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To evaluate effect of surgeon's seniority (trainee surgeon vs. consultant surgeon) and surgeon's subspeciality interest on postoperative mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy (EL).

METHOD

A systematic review was conducted and reported according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews and the PRISMA statement standards, respectively. We evaluated all studies comparing the risk of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing EL between (a) trainee surgeon and consultant surgeon, and (b) surgeon without and with subspeciality interest related to pathology. Random effects modelling was applied for the analyses. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE system.

RESULTS

Analysis of 256 844 patients from 13 studies showed no difference in the risk of postoperative mortality between trainee-led and consultant-led EL (OR: 0.76, p = 0.12). However, EL performed by a surgeon without subspeciality interest related to the pathology was associated with a higher risk of postoperative mortality compared with a surgeon with subspeciality interest (OR: 1.38, p < 0.00001). In lower gastrointestinal (GI) pathologies, EL done by upper GI surgeons resulted in higher risk of mortality compared with lower GI surgeons (OR: 1.43, p < 0.00001). In upper GI pathologies, EL done by lower GI surgeons resulted in higher risk of mortality compared with upper GI surgeons (OR: 1.29, p = 0.05).

CONCLUSION

While confounding by indication cannot be excluded, level 2 evidence with moderate certainty suggests that trainee-led EL may not increase the risk of postoperative mortality but EL by a surgeon with subspeciality interest related to the pathology may reduce the risk of mortality.

The interaction between geriatric and neighborhood vulnerability: Delineating prehospital risk among older adult emergency general surgery patients

BACKGROUND

When presenting for emergency general surgery (EGS) care, older adults frequently experience increased risk of adverse outcomes owing to factors related to age ("geriatric vulnerability") and the social determinants of health unique to the places in which they live ("neighborhood vulnerability"). Little is known about how such factors collectively influence adverse outcomes. We sought to explore how the interaction between geriatric and neighborhood vulnerability influences EGS outcomes among older adults.

METHODS

Older adults, 65 years or older, hospitalized with an AAST-defined EGS condition were identified in the 2016 to 2019, 2021 Florida State Inpatient Database. Latent variable models combined the influence of patient age, multimorbidity, and Hospital Frailty Risk Score into a single metric of "geriatric vulnerability." Variations in geriatric vulnerability were then compared across differences in "neighborhood vulnerability" as measured by variations in Area Deprivation Index, Social Vulnerability Index, and their corresponding subthemes (e.g., access to transportation).

RESULTS

A total of 448,968 older adults were included. For patients living in the least vulnerable neighborhoods, increasing geriatric vulnerability resulted in up to six times greater risk of death (30-day risk-adjusted hazards ratio [HR], 6.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.49-8.89). The effect was more than doubled among patients living in the most vulnerable neighborhoods, where increasing geriatric vulnerability resulted in up to 15 times greater risk of death (30-day risk-adjusted HR, 15.12; 95% CI, 12.57-18.19). When restricted to racial/ethnic minority patients, the multiplicative effect was four-times as high, resulting in corresponding 30-day HRs for mortality of 11.53 (95% CI, 4.51-29.44) versus 40.67 (95% CI, 22.73-72.78). Similar patterns were seen for death within 365 days.

CONCLUSION

Both geriatric and neighborhood vulnerability have been shown to affect prehospital risk among older patients. The results of this study build on that work, presenting the first in-depth look at the powerful multiplicative interaction between these two factors. The results show that where a patient resides can fundamentally alter expected outcomes for EGS care such that otherwise less vulnerable patients become functionally equivalent to those who are, at baseline, more aged, more frail, and more sick.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level III.

Development and Validation of HAS (Hajibandeh Index, ASA Status, Sarcopenia) - A Novel Model for Predicting Mortality After Emergency Laparotomy

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a predictive model to predict the risk of postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy taking into account the following variables: age, age ≥ 80, ASA status, clinical frailty score, sarcopenia, Hajibandeh Index (HI), bowel resection, and intraperitoneal contamination.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The discriminative powers of the currently available predictive tools range between adequate and strong; none has demonstrated excellent discrimination yet.

METHODS

The TRIPOD and STROCSS statement standards were followed to protocol and conduct a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent emergency laparotomy due to non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology between 2017 and 2022. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to develop and validate the model via two protocols (Protocol A and B). The model performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination (ROC curve analysis), calibration (calibration diagram and Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and classification (classification table).

RESULTS

One thousand forty-three patients were included (statistical power = 94%). Multivariable analysis kept HI (Protocol-A: P =0.0004; Protocol-B: P =0.0017), ASA status (Protocol-A: P =0.0068; Protocol-B: P =0.0007), and sarcopenia (Protocol-A: P <0.0001; Protocol-B: P <0.0001) as final predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality in both protocols; hence the model was called HAS (HI, ASA status, sarcopenia). The HAS demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.96, P <0.0001), excellent calibration ( P <0.0001), and excellent classification (95%) via both protocols.

CONCLUSIONS

The HAS is the first model demonstrating excellent discrimination, calibration, and classification in predicting the risk of 30-day mortality following emergency laparotomy. The HAS model seems promising and is worth attention for external validation using the calculator provided. HAS mortality risk calculator https://app.airrange.io/#/element/xr3b_E6yLor9R2c8KXViSAeOSK .

Sarcopenia versus clinical frailty scale in predicting the risk of postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To compare predictive significance of sarcopenia and clinical frailty scale (CFS) in terms of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy METHODS: In compliance with STROCSS statement standards, a retrospective cohort study with prospective data collection approach was conducted. The study period was between January 2017 and January 2022. All adult patients with non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology who underwent emergency laparotomy in our centre were included. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality and secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 90-day mortality. The predictive value of sarcopenia and CFS were compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and multivariable binary logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1043 eligible patients were included. The risk of 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and 90-day mortality were 8%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. ROC curve analysis suggested that sarcopenia is a significantly stronger predictor of 30-day mortality (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.70, P<0.0001), in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.67, P=0.0011), and 90-day mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.67, P=0.0009) compared with CFS. Moreover, multivariable binary logistic regression analysis identified sarcopenia as an independent predictor of mortality [coefficient: 4.333, OR: 76.16 (95% CI 37.06-156.52), P<0.0001] but not the CFS [coefficient: 0.096, OR: 1.10 (95% CI 0.88-1.38), P=0.4047].

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia is a stronger predictor of postoperative mortality compared with CFS in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. It cancels out the predictive value of clinical frailty scale in multivariable analyses; hence among the two variables, sarcopenia deserves to be included in preoperative predictive tools.

Comparison between P-POSSUM and NELA risk score for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in Egyptian patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) is one of the scores that is used most frequently for determining the likelihood of mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) presents a novel and validated score. Therefore, we aimed to compare the performance of the NELA and P-POSSUM mortality risk scores in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.

METHODS

Between August 2020 and October 2022, this cohort study was undertaken at Menoufia University Hospital. We compared the P-POSSUM, preoperative NELA, and postoperative NELA scores in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. All variables needed to calculate the used scores were collected. The outcomes included the death rates at 30 and 90 days. By calculating the area under the curve (AUC) for every mortality instrument, the discrimination of the various methods was evaluated and compared.

RESULTS

Data from 670 patients were included. The observed risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality was 10.3% (69/670) and 13.13% (88/670), respectively. Concerning 30-day mortality, the AUC was 0.774 for the preoperative NELA score, 0.763 for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.780 for the postoperative NELA score. Regarding 90-day mortality, the AUCs for the preoperative NELA score, preoperative P-POSSUM score, and postoperative NELA score were 0.649 (0.581-0.717), 0.782 (0.737-0.828), and 0.663 (0.608-0.718), respectively. There was noticeable difference in the three models' capacity for discrimination, according to pairwise comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of 30-day and 90-day death across the entire population was underestimated by the NELA and P-POSSUM scores. There was discernible difference in predictive performance between the two scores.

Predictive Performance of NELA Versus P-POSSUM Mortality Scores: Are We Underestimating the Risk of Mortality Following Emergency Laparotomy?

Background In this study, we aimed to compare the performance of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) and Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) mortality risk scores in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Methodology A retrospective cohort study was conducted to compare the predictive performance of preoperative NELA, postoperative NELA, and P-POSSUM predicted mortality scores in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy between 2014 and 2021. The outcomes of interest included the observed 30-day and 90-day mortality. The discrimination of the mortality tools was assessed and compared by determining the area under the curve (AUC) for each tool using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results A total of 681 patients were included. The observed risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality was 10.4% (71/681) and 14.2% (97/681), respectively. Regarding 30-day mortality, the AUC was 0.791 (0.727-0.855) for the preoperative NELA score, 0.784 (0.721-0.848) for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.761 (0.699-0.824) for the postoperative NELA score. Regarding 90-day mortality, the AUC was 0.765 (0.708-0.821) for the preoperative NELA score, 0.749 (0.692-0.807) for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.745 (0.691-0.800) for the postoperative NELA score. The observed/expected ratio for 30-day and 90-day mortality was 3.25 and 4.43 for preoperative NELA, 2.81 and 3.84 for preoperative P-POSSUM, and 2.17 and 2.96 for postoperative NELA, respectively. Pairwise comparisons showed no statistically significant difference in discrimination among the three models. Conclusions Preoperative NELA, postoperative NELA, and P-POSSUM scores underestimated the risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. No significant difference in predictive performance was found among the three models.

Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infection in the Elderly: Effect of Pre-Operative Factors on Mortality and Discharge Disposition

Background: Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) are rapidly progressing, life-threatening diseases associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, especially in patients 65 years or older. We aimed to evaluate clinical factors associated with mortality and discharge disposition after NSTIs in elderly patients. Patients and Methods: Retrospective data were obtained from the 2007-2017 American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality (ACS-NSQIP) database. Patients aged 65 years or older with a post-operative diagnosis of an NSTI (defined as gas gangrene, necrotizing fasciitis, or Fournier gangrene) were included. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify independent clinical and demographic factors associated with mortality and with discharge disposition. Results: A total of 1,460 patients were included. Median age was 71 years, 43% were females. Overall, 30-day mortality was 18.5% and 30-day morbidity was 63.6%. The most important predictors of mortality included pre-operative septic shock (odds ratio [OR], 6.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.61-11.18), pre-operative dialysis dependence (OR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.77-5.05), coagulopathy (international normalized ratio [INR], >1.5, OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.51-3.37), hepatobiliary disease (bilirubin >1.0 mg/dL; OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.38-3.04) and aged 80 years or older (OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 2.08-5.44). Patients without any of these risk factors had a mortality of 7.3%. Predictors of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation or skilled care included age 80 years or older (OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.44-4.30), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) ≥3 (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.03-4.05)] and amputation as opposed to debridement (OR, 2.53; 95% CI,1.48-4.32). Conclusions: We identified several pre-operative clinical factors that were associated with increased post-operative mortality and discharge to post-acute care. The next steps should focus on determining if optimization of modifiable predictors would improve mortality.

Long-term outcome of patients with biliary pancreatitis not undergoing cholecystectomy. A retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Most acute pancreatitis are of biliary origin and undergoing a cholecystectomy is recommended to prevent recurrence. However, some patients will never be referred to surgery. We reviewed the long-term follow-up of these group of patients Methods All cases of biliary pancreatitis presented from January 2015 to December 2017 that did not receive a cholecystectomy were analyzed. Epidemiologic data and Charlson comorbidity Index (CCI) were recorded. Recurrent episodes of pancreatitis or biliary events and mortality during the follow-up period was recorded. Results A total of 104 patients were included in the study (30.4% of all biliary pancreatitis). Median age was 82 years (range 27-96). Average CCI was 5 (range 0-18). The median follow-up period was 37 months (range 1-70). A total of 41 patients (39.4%) had gallstone-related complications. Twenty-three patients (22,1%) had recurrent pancreatitis and 34 (32,7%) developed biliary events. Decease occurred in 25 patients during follow-up (24%) but only 6 (5,8%) were due to gallstone-related complications. Non-related mortality was 15.5% in patients who refused surgery and 25% if high comorbidity patients.

CONCLUSION

Patients that are not cholecystectomized are at high risk for biliary event and pancreatitis recurrence. Conservative treatment and surgical abstention should be individualized and reserved to high comorbid patients with short life expectancy.