The influence of abiotic and biotic factors on the invasion of Ixodes scapularis in Ontario, Canada

Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato prevalence in Ixodes scapularis from Canada: A thirty-year summary and meta-analysis (1990-2020)

Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bb) are a complex of bacteria genospecies that can cause Lyme disease (LD) in humans after the bite of an infected Ixodes spp. vector tick. In Canada, incidence of LD is increasing in part due to the rapid geographic expansion of Ixodes scapularis across the southcentral and eastern provinces. To better understand temporal and spatial (provincial) prevalence of Bb infection of I. scapularis and how tick surveillance is utilized in Canada to assess LD risk, a literature review was conducted. Tick surveillance studies published between January 1975 to November 2023, that measured the prevalence of Bb in I. scapularis via "passive surveillance" from the public citizenry or "active surveillance" by drag or flag sampling of host-seeking ticks in Canada were included for review. Meta-analyses were conducted via random effects modeling. Forty-seven articles, yielding 26 passive and 28 active surveillance studies, met inclusion criteria. Mean durations of collection for I. scapularis were 2.1 years in active surveillance studies (1999-2020) and 5.5 years by passive surveillance studies (1990-2020). Collectively, data were extracted on 99,528 I. scapularis nymphs and adults collected between 1990-2020 across nine provinces, including Newfoundland & Labrador (33 ticks) and Alberta (208 ticks). More studies were conducted in Ontario (36) than any other province. Across nine provinces, the prevalence of Bb infection in I. scapularis collected by passive surveillance was 14.6% with the highest prevalence in Nova Scotia at 20.5% (minimum studies >1). Among host-seeking I. scapularis collected via active surveillance, Bb infection prevalence was 10.5% in nymphs, 31.9% in adults, and 23.8% across both life stages. Host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs and adults from Ontario had the highest Bb prevalence at 13.6% and 34.8%, respectively. Between 2007-2019, Bb infection prevalence in host-seeking I. scapularis was positively associated over time (p<0.001) which is concurrent with a ∼25-fold increase in the number of annually reported LD cases in Canada over the same period. The prevalence of Bb-infection in I. scapularis has rapidly increased over three decades as reported by tick surveillance studies in Canada which coincides with increasing human incidence for LD. The wide-ranging distribution and variable prevalence of Bb-infected I. scapularis ticks across provinces demonstrates the growing need for long-term standardized tick surveillance to monitor the changing trends in I. scapularis populations and best define LD risk areas in Canada.

Ixodes scapularis density and Borrelia burgdorferi prevalence along a residential-woodland gradient in a region of emerging Lyme disease risk

The environmental risk of Lyme disease, defined by the density of Ixodes scapularis ticks and their prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi infection, is increasing across the Ottawa, Ontario region, making this a unique location to explore the factors associated with environmental risk along a residential-woodland gradient. In this study, we collected I. scapularis ticks and trapped Peromyscus spp. mice, tested both for tick-borne pathogens, and monitored the intensity of foraging activity by deer in residential, woodland, and residential-woodland interface zones of four neighbourhoods. We constructed mixed-effect models to test for site-specific characteristics associated with densities of questing nymphal and adult ticks and the infection prevalence of nymphal and adult ticks. Compared to residential zones, we found a strong increasing gradient in tick density from interface to woodland zones, with 4 and 15 times as many nymphal ticks, respectively. Infection prevalence of nymphs and adults together was 15 to 24 times greater in non-residential zone habitats. Ecological site characteristics, including soil moisture, leaf litter depth, and understory density, were associated with variations in nymphal density and their infection prevalence. Our results suggest that high environmental risk bordering residential areas poses a concern for human-tick encounters, highlighting the need for targeted disease prevention.

Models and data used to predict the abundance and distribution of Ixodes scapularis (blacklegged tick) in North America: a scoping review

Tick-borne diseases (TBD) remain prevalent worldwide, and risk assessment of tick habitat suitability is crucial to prevent or reduce their burden. This scoping review provides a comprehensive survey of models and data used to predict I. scapularis distribution and abundance in North America. We identified 4661 relevant primary research articles published in English between January 1st, 2012, and July 18th, 2022, and selected 41 articles following full-text review. Models used data-driven and mechanistic modelling frameworks informed by diverse tick, hydroclimatic, and ecological variables. Predictions captured tick abundance (n = 14, 34.1%), distribution (n = 22, 53.6%) and both (n = 5, 12.1%). All studies used tick data, and many incorporated both hydroclimatic and ecological variables. Minimal host- and human-specific data were utilized. Biases related to data collection, protocols, and tick data quality affect completeness and representativeness of prediction models. Further research and collaboration are needed to improve prediction accuracy and develop effective strategies to reduce TBD.

High-resolution environmental and host-related factors impacting questing Ixodes scapularis at their northern range edge

The geographic range of tick populations has expanded in Canada due to climate warming and the associated poleward range shifts of their vertebrate hosts. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and snow, are known to directly affect tick abundance. Yet, biotic factors, such as the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts, may also alter tick abundance and consequent tick-borne disease risk. Here, we incorporated host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental data to evaluate the combined impact of abiotic and biotic factors on questing Ixodes scapularis abundance in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. High-resolution abiotic factors were derived from remote sensing satellites and meteorological towers, while biotic factors related to mammal hosts were derived from active surveillance data that we collected in the field. Generalized additive models were used to determine the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors on questing I. scapularis abundance. Combinations of abiotic and biotic factors were identified as important drivers of abundances of questing I. scapularis. Positive and negative linear relationships were found for questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and accumulated snow, but no effect was found for the relative abundance of white-footed mice. Positive relationships were also identified between questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and mammal species richness. Therefore, future studies that assess I. scapularis should incorporate host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental factors to determine the key drivers impacting the abundance and geographic spread of tick populations and tick-borne pathogens.

Evaluation of the association between climate warming and the spread and proliferation of Ixodes scapularis in northern states in the Eastern United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) is widely distributed in forested areas across the eastern United States. The public health impact of I. scapularis is greatest in the north, where nymphal stage ticks commonly bite humans and serve as primary vectors for multiple human pathogens. There were dramatic increases in the tick's distribution and abundance over the last half-century in the northern part of the eastern US, and climate warming is commonly mentioned as a primary driver for these changes. In this review, we summarize the evidence for the observed spread and proliferation of I. scapularis being driven by climate warming. Although laboratory and small-scale field studies have provided insights into how temperature and humidity impact survival and reproduction of I. scapularis, using these associations to predict broad-scale distribution and abundance patterns is more challenging. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to model the distribution and abundance of I. scapularis at state, regional, and global scales based on climate and landscape variables, but outcomes have been ambiguous. Across the models, the functional relationships between seasonal or annual measures of heat, cold, precipitation, or humidity and tick presence or abundance were inconsistent. The contribution of climate relative to landscape variables was poorly defined. Over the last half-century, climate warming occurred in parallel with spread and population increase of the white-tailed deer, the most important reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, in the northern part of the eastern US. There is strong evidence for white-tailed deer playing a key role to facilitate spread and proliferation of I. scapularis in the US over the last century. However, due to a lack of spatially and temporally congruent data, climate, landscape, and host variables are rarely included in the same models, thus limiting the ability to evaluate their relative contributions or interactions in defining the geographic range and abundance patterns of ticks. We conclude that the role of climate change as a key driver for geographic expansion and population increase of I. scapularis in the northern part of the eastern US over the last half-century remains uncertain.

Female ticks (Ixodes scapularis) infected with Borrelia burgdorferi have increased overwintering survival, with implications for tick population growth

The tick, Ixodes scapularis, vectors pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. Over the last few decades I. scapularis has expanded its range, introducing a novel health threat into these areas. Warming temperatures appear to be one cause of its range expansion to the north. However, other factors are also involved. We show that unfed adult female ticks infected with B. burgdorferi have greater overwintering survival than uninfected female ticks. Locally collected adult female ticks were placed in individual microcosms and allowed to overwinter in both forest and dune grass environments. In the spring we collected the ticks and tested both dead and living ticks for B. burgdorferi DNA. Infected ticks had greater overwintering survival compared with uninfected ticks every winter for three consecutive winters in both forest and dune grass environments. We discuss the most plausible explanations for this result. The increased winter survival of adult female ticks could enhance tick population growth. Our results suggest that, in addition to climate change, B. burgdorferi infection itself may be promoting the northern range expansion of I. scapularis. Our study highlights how pathogens could work synergistically with climate change to promote host range expansion.

Environmental Drivers of Immature Ixodes scapularis in Minnesota's Metro Area

Research on the public health significance of Ixodes scapularis ticks in the Midwest seldom focuses on extreme weather conditions that can modulate their population dynamics and ability to transmit pathogenic organisms. In this study, we assessed whether the distributional abundance of I. scapularis immatures is associated with current and time-lagged climatic determinants either directly or indirectly. We analyzed a 20-year longitudinal small mammal live-trapping dataset within a seven-county metropolitan area in Minnesota (1998-2016) using yearly tick counts at each site to assess whether inter- and intra-annual variation in immature I. scapularis counts is associated with climate and land-use conditions. We found that (1) immature I. scapularis ticks infesting mammals expanded southwesterly over the study period, (2) eastern chipmunks, Tamias striatus, supplied a substantial proportion of nymphal blood meals, (3) a suite of climatological variables are demonstrably associated with I. scapularis presence, and abundance across sites, most notably summer vapor pressure deficit, and (4) immature I. scapularis display an affinity for deciduous forests in metro areas. Our results suggest that climatic and land-type conditions may impact host-seeking I. scapularis ticks through numerous mechanistic avenues. These findings extend our understanding of the abiotic factors supporting I. scapularis populations in metro areas of the upper Midwest with strong implications for discerning future tick-borne pathogen risk.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation. Here, a mechanistic movement model was applied to landscapes of eastern North America to explore 1) relationships between multiple ecological drivers and the speed of the northward invasion of blacklegged ticks infected with the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and 2) its capacity to simulate the northward range expansion of infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks under theoretical scenarios of increasing temperature. Our results suggest that the attraction of migratory birds (long-distance tick dispersal hosts) to resource-rich areas during their spring migration and the mate-finding Allee effect in tick population dynamics are key drivers for the spread of infected blacklegged ticks. The modeled increases in temperature extended the climatically suitable areas of Canada for infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks towards higher latitudes by up to 31% and 1%, respectively, and with an average predicted speed of the range expansion reaching 61 km/year and 23 km/year, respectively. Differences in the projected spatial distribution patterns of these tick species were due to differences in climate envelopes of tick populations, as well as the availability and attractiveness of suitable habitats for migratory birds. Our results indicate that the northward invasion process of lone star ticks is primarily driven by local dispersal of resident terrestrial hosts, whereas that of blacklegged ticks is governed by long-distance migratory bird dispersal. The results also suggest that mechanistic movement models provide a powerful approach for predicting tick-borne disease risk patterns under complex scenarios of climate, socioeconomic and land use/land cover changes.

Comparing Canadian Lyme disease risk area classification methodologies

Lyme disease risk areas have increased across Canada in recent decades with the ongoing range expansion of Ixodes scapularis and Borrelia burgdorferi. Different methodologies are used by federal and provincial governments to determine local Lyme disease risk, which can make comparisons between regions challenging. In this study, seven Canadian Lyme disease risk classification methodologies were compared with each other to highlight the strengths and limitations of how each definition measured I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi risk. Each methodology was applied to active surveillance data from Ontario, and per cent agreement and kappa statistics were calculated. The methodologies varied in their measurements of the risk of exposure to I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi based on their use of active surveillance techniques, multiple types of collected surveillance data and laboratory confirmation of B. burgdorferi. Most initial Lyme disease risk site classifications were maintained over time. Kappa and per cent agreement statistics highlighted large differences between 8 of the 15 methodology pairings, indicating the presence of inconsistencies between most methodologies. Accurate, consistent surveillance and assessment of the spread of I. scapularis and its pathogens will aid with communicating Lyme disease risk to the public and preventing tick-borne pathogen transmission.

Rurality, Socioeconomic Status, and Residence in Environmental Risk Areas Associated with Increased Lyme Disease Incidence in Ontario, Canada: A Case-Control Study

Background: Lyme disease (LD) is the most common tick-borne illness in North America. LD is acquired through exposure to the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, known as the blacklegged tick. In Canada, LD is rapidly emerging, with the establishment of I. scapularis in many newly endemic regions posing a growing risk to local communities. In the Canadian context, many environmental and socioeconomic risk factors for human LD infection are yet to be ascertained and the degree of risk associated with residential and community exposure to ticks is not well known. Methods: We conducted a matched case-control study in southeastern Ontario, using LD patient data from provincial laboratory databases and uninfected population controls from 2014 to 2018. We aimed to identify area-level risk factors for LD and associations with residence in environmental risk areas, defined as areas with high model-predicted probability of I. scapularis occurrence, using the neighborhood dissemination area as the unit of analysis. Results: Using multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, we identified that patients with LD had higher odds (odds ratio, OR; 95% confidence interval, CI) of living in neighborhoods with high probability of tick occurrence in the environment (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 2.0-2.5), low walkability (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.1), low material deprivation (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.7), and low ethnic concentration (OR = 8.1; 95% CI: 6.7-9.9). We also found that the odds of LD infection for individuals residing in environmental risk areas was highest for those living in public health units (PHUs) with <250,000 population (OR = 3.0; 95% CI: 2.4-3.9) compared to those living in PHUs with >1,000,000 population (OR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1-2.1). Conclusion: This study shows that odds of human LD infection in Ontario, Canada is higher in less urbanized areas with higher socioeconomic status and indicates that exposure to ticks around the home residence or neighborhood is linked to increased odds of LD.

An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD.

Survival in the understorey: Testing direct and indirect effects of microclimatological changes on Ixodes ricinus

The distribution of ticks in the Ixodes ricinus species complex is partly driven by climate, with temperature and relative humidity affecting survival. These variables are driven by macroclimate, but vary locally due to microclimate buffering. This buffering has been suggested to be one of the driving forces behind variation in tick survival and density in time and space. In order to understand the role of the herb layer with respect to this variation, we deployed I. ricinus within an existing experimental setup studying the response of forest understorey to micrometeorological changes. This allowed for the analysis of both direct effects of warming on tick survival in controlled field conditions, as well as indirect effects through changes in herb layer biomass. Herb layer biomass estimates were observed to be higher in plots that had been experimentally warmed, with a trend towards higher survival in these warmed plots. This marginal increase in survival rate may be due to increased microclimate buffering. Comparing our results to literature implies that canopy and shrub layer vegetation have a larger effect on climate buffering, and therefore also on tick survival. Since the herb layer biomass is expected to increase due to global warming and increased frequency of disturbance-induced canopy gaps, survival in forested habitats may increase in the future. This would increase the difference in survival compared to that in open habitats.

Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) needles and their essential oil kill overwintering ticks (Ixodes scapularis) at cold temperatures

The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, vectors Borrelia burgdorferi, a bacterium that causes Lyme Disease. Although synthetic pesticides can reduce tick numbers, there are concerns about their potential effects on beneficial insects, such as pollinators. Plant-based pest control agents such as essential oils could provide an alternative because they have low environmental persistency; however, these products struggle to provide effective control. We found a new natural acaricide, balsam fir (Abies balsamea) needles, that kill overwintering I. scapularis ticks. We extracted the essential oil from the needles, analyzed its chemical composition, and tested it for acaricidal activity. We placed ticks in tubes with substrate and positioned the tubes either in the field or in incubators simulating winter temperatures. We added balsam fir essential oil, or one of the main components of balsam fir essential oil (i.e., ß-pinene), to each tube. We found that both the oil and ß-pinene kill overwintering ticks. Whole balsam fir needles require several weeks to kill overwintering ticks, while the essential oil is lethal within days at low temperatures (≤ 4 °C). Further, low temperatures increased the efficacy of this volatile essential oil. Higher temperatures (i.e., 20 °C) reduce the acaricidal effectiveness of the essential oil by 50% at 0.1% v/v. Low temperatures may promote the effectiveness of other natural control products. Winter is an overlooked season for tick control and should be explored as a possible time for the application of low toxicity products for successful tick management.

Will new ticks invade North America? How to identify future invaders

Invasive tick species and the pathogens they transmit pose increasing threats to human and animal health around the world. Little attention has been paid to the characteristics enabling tick species to invade. Here we analyze examples of tick invasion events in North America to identify factors that facilitated the invasion. Commonalities among invasive ticks are that they thrive in anthropogenically modified habitats, feed on either domestic animals or wildlife occurring in high density, and can survive across a broad range of climatic conditions. Invasive tick species varied widely in life history and reproductive habits, suggesting that invasion occurs when multiple characteristics converge. The combination of potential characteristics leading to invasion, however, improves our ability to predict future invaders and inform surveillance.

Range Expansion of Ixodes scapularis and Borrelia burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada, from 2017 to 2019

Range expansion of the vector tick species, Ixodes scapularis, has been detected in Ontario over the last two decades. This has led to elevated risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. Previous research using passive surveillance data suggests that I. scapularis populations establish before the establishment of B. burgdorferi transmission cycles, with a delay of ∼5 years. The objectives of this research were to examine spatial and temporal patterns of I. scapularis and its pathogens from 2017 to 2019 in southwestern, eastern, and central Ontario, and to explore patterns of B. burgdorferi invasion. Over the 3-year study period, drag sampling was conducted at 48 sites across Ontario. I. scapularis ticks were tested for B. burgdorferi, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia species, including Babesia microti and Babesia odocoilei, and Powassan virus. I. scapularis was detected at 30 sites overall, 22 of which had no history of previous tick detection. B. burgdorferi was detected at nine sites, eight of which tested positive for the first time during this study and five of which had B. burgdorferi detected concurrently with initial tick detection. Tick and pathogen hotspots were identified in eastern Ontario in 2017 and 2018, respectively. These findings provide additional evidence on the range expansion and population establishment of I. scapularis in Ontario and help generate hypotheses on the invasion of B. burgdorferi in Ontario. Ongoing public health surveillance is critical to monitor changes in I. scapularis and its pathogens in Ontario.

Spatiotemporal trends and socioecological factors associated with Lyme disease in eastern Ontario, Canada from 2010-2017

Currently, there is limited knowledge about socioeconomic, neighbourhood, and local ecological factors that contribute to the growing Lyme disease incidence in the province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, we sought to identify these factors that play an important role at the local scale, where people are encountering ticks in their communities. We used reported human Lyme disease case data and tick surveillance data submitted by the public from 2010–2017 to analyze trends in tick exposure, spatiotemporal clusters of infection using the spatial scan statistic and Local Moran’s I statistic, and socioecological risk factors for Lyme disease using a multivariable negative binomial regression model. Data were analyzed at the smallest geographic unit, consisting of 400–700 individuals, for which census data are disseminated in Canada. We found significant heterogeneity in tick exposure patterns based on location of residence, with 65.2% of Lyme disease patients from the city of Ottawa reporting tick exposures outside their health unit of residence, compared to 86.1%—98.1% of patients from other, largely rural, health units, reporting peri-domestic exposures. We detected eight spatiotemporal clusters of human Lyme disease incidence in eastern Ontario, overlapping with three clusters of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks. When adjusting for population counts, Lyme disease case counts increased with larger numbers of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks submitted by the public, higher proportion of treed landcover, lower neighbourhood walkability due to fewer intersections, dwellings, and points of interest, as well as with regions of higher residential instability and lower ethnic concentration (Relative Risk [RR] = 1.25, 1.02, 0.67–0.04, 1.34, and 0.57, respectively, p < .0001). Our study shows that there are regional differences in tick exposure patterns in eastern Ontario and that multiple socioecological factors contribute to Lyme disease risk in this region.

Emergence of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in a Small Mammal Population in a Coastal Oak-Pine Forest, Maine, USA

In the United States, surveillance has been key to tracking spatiotemporal emergence of blacklegged ticks [Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida:Ixodidae)] and their pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt & Brenner (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), the agent of Lyme disease. On the Holt Research Forest in midcoastal Maine, collection of feeding ticks from live-trapped small mammal hosts allowed us to track the emergence and establishment of I. scapularis, 1989-2019. From 1989-1995, we collected only I. angustus Neumann (Ixodida: Ixodidae)(vole tick), Dermacentor variabilis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae) (American dog tick), and I. marxi Banks (Ixodida: Ixodidae) (squirrel tick) from seven species of small mammals. The most abundant tick host was the white-footed mouse [Peromyscus leucopus Rafinesque (Rodentia:Cricetidae)] followed by the red-backed vole (Myodes gapperi Vigors (Rodentia: Cricetidae)). Emergence of I. scapularis was signaled via the appearance of subadult I. scapularis in 1996. Emergence of B. burgdorferi was signaled through its appearance in I. scapularis feeding on mice in 2005. There was a substantial increase in I. scapularis prevalence (proportion of hosts parasitized) and burdens (ticks/host) on white-footed mice and red-backed voles in 2007. The ~11-yr time-to-establishment for I. scapularis was consistent with that seen in other studies. White-footed mice comprised 65.9% of all captures and hosted 94.1% of the total I. scapularis burden. The white-footed mouse population fluctuated interannually, but did not trend up as did I. scapularis prevalence and burdens. There were concurrent declines in I. angustus and D. variabilis. We discuss these results in the broader context of regional I. scapularis range expansion.

Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.

Effect of Vegetation on the Abundance of Tick Vectors in the Northeastern United States: A Review of the Literature

Tick-borne illnesses have been on the rise in the United States, with reported cases up sharply in the past two decades. In this literature review, we synthesize the available research on the relationship between vegetation and tick abundance for four tick species in the northeastern United States that are of potential medical importance to humans. The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) is found to be positively associated with closed canopy forests and dense vegetation thickets, and negatively associated with open canopy environments, such as grasslands or old agricultural fields. The American dog tick (Dermacentor variabilis) (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) has little habitat overlap with I. scapularis, with abundance highest in grasses and open-canopy fields. The lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum) (Linnaeus; Acari: Ixodidae) is a habitat generalist without consistent associations with particular types of vegetation. The habitat associations of the recently introduced Asian longhorned tick (Haemaphysalis longicornis) (Neumann; Acari: Ixodidae) in the northeastern United States, and in other regions where it has invaded, are still unknown, although based on studies in its native range, it is likely to be found in grasslands and open-canopy habitats.

Ticks, Human Babesiosis and Climate Change

The effects of current and future global warming on the distribution and activity of the primary ixodid vectors of human babesiosis (caused by Babesia divergens, B. venatorum and B. microti) are discussed. There is clear evidence that the distributions of both Ixodes ricinus, the vector in Europe, and I. scapularis in North America have been impacted by the changing climate, with increasing temperatures resulting in the northwards expansion of tick populations and the occurrence of I. ricinus at higher altitudes. Ixodes persulcatus, which replaces I. ricinus in Eurasia and temperate Asia, is presumed to be the babesiosis vector in China and Japan, but this tick species has not yet been confirmed as the vector of either human or animal babesiosis. There is no definite evidence, as yet, of global warming having an effect on the occurrence of human babesiosis, but models suggest that it is only a matter of time before cases occur further north than they do at present.

More than ticking boxes: Training Lyme disease education ambassadors to meet outreach and surveillance challenges in Québec, Canada

Lyme disease (LD) is an emerging public health threat in Canada, associated with the northward range expansion of the black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis). To address this, public health authorities have been carrying out surveillance activities and awareness campaigns targeting vulnerable populations such as outdoor workers. Implementing these measures is time-consuming and resource-intensive, prompting the assessment of alternatives. Our goal was to evaluate the feasibility and implementation of a training-of-trainers-inspired approach in raising awareness about LD risk and prevention among workers and general population, as well as to evaluate its potential to contribute to provincial LD surveillance efforts. We trained a group of workers from publicly-accessible outdoor parks of the province of Québec to become "LD education ambassadors". Ambassadors were trained to raise tick and LD awareness, share information on preventive measures in their respective communities, and lead tick sampling activities using a standardised protocol similar to that used by Public Health authorities. Ambassador-led outreach activities, public reach, sampling activities and collected ticks were documented, as well as ambassadors' satisfaction with the training using forms and semi-structured interviews. In total, 18 ambassadors from 12 organizations were trained. Between June and September 2019, they led 28 independent outreach activities, reaching over 1 860 individuals (from occupational and general public settings) in seven public health units. Ambassadors led 28 tick samplings, together collecting 11 I. scapularis ticks. This study suggests that an adapted training-of-trainers is a feasible approach to raising tick and LD risk awareness among Québec outdoor workers and public. Trained ambassadors have the potential of reaching a large portion of the population visiting or working in outdoor parks while also providing much-needed outreach regarding risk and prevention. Pushing this concept further to include other types of workers and jurisdictions may contribute to national LD surveillance efforts.

Fine-scale determinants of the spatiotemporal distribution of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec (Canada)

The tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, is currently expanding its geographical distribution northward into southern Canada driving emergence of Lyme disease in the region. Despite large-scale studies that attributed different factors such as climate change and changes in land use to the geographical expansion of the tick, a comprehensive understanding of local patterns of tick abundance is still lacking in that region. Using a newly endemic periurban nature park located in Quebec (Canada) as a model, we explored intra-habitat patterns in tick distribution and their relationship with biotic and abiotic factors. We verified the hypotheses that (1) there is spatial heterogeneity in tick densities at the scale of the park and (2) these patterns can be explained by host availability, habitat characteristics and microclimatic conditions. During tick activity season in three consecutive years, tick, deer, rodent and bird abundance, as well as habitat characteristics and microclimatic conditions, were estimated at thirty-two sites. Patterns of tick distribution and abundance were investigated by spatial analysis. Generalised additive mixed models were constructed for each developmental stage of the tick and the relative importance of significant drivers on tick abundance were derived from final models. We found fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in densities of all tick stages across the park, with interannual variability in the location of hotspots. For all stages, the local density was related to the density of the previous stage in the previous season, in keeping with the tick's life cycle. Adult tick density was highest where drainage was moderate (neither waterlogged nor dry). Microclimatic conditions influenced the densities of immature ticks, through the effects of weather at the time of tick sampling (ambient temperature and relative humidity) and of the seasonal microclimate at the site level (degree-days and number of tick adverse moisture events). Seasonal phenology patterns were generally consistent with expected curves for the region, with exceptions in some years that may be attributable to founder events. This study highlights fine scale patterns of tick population dynamics thus providing fundamental knowledge in Lyme disease ecology and information applicable to the development of well-targeted prevention and control strategies for public natural areas affected by this growing problem in southern Canada.

Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec

Lyme disease is a growing public health problem in Québec. Its emergence over the last decade is caused by environmental and anthropological factors that favour the survival of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of Lyme disease transmission. The objective of this study was to estimate the speed and direction of human Lyme disease emergence in Québec and to identify spatiotemporal risk patterns. A surface trend analysis was conducted to estimate the speed and direction of its emergence based upon the first detected case of Lyme disease in each municipality in Québec since 2004. A cluster analysis was also conducted to identify at-risk regions across space and time. These analyses were reproduced for the date of disease onset and date of notification for each case of Lyme disease. It was estimated that Lyme disease is spreading northward in Québec at a speed varying between 18 and 32 km/year according to the date of notification and the date of disease onset, respectively. A significantly high risk of disease was found in seven clusters identified in the south-west of Québec in the sociosanitary regions of Montérégie and Estrie. The results obtained in this study improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease in Québec, which can be used for proactive, targeted interventions by public and clinical health authorities.

Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate-disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county-level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate-disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23,619 ± 21,607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change-induced increases in Lyme disease burden.

Species distribution models for the eastern blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, and the Lyme disease pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi, in Ontario, Canada

The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is established in several regions of Ontario, Canada, and continues to spread into new geographic areas across the province at a rapid rate. This poses a significant public health risk since I. scapularis transmits the Lyme disease-causing bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, and other pathogens of potential public health concern. The objective of this study was to develop species distribution models for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi to predict and compare the potential distributions of the tick vector and the Lyme disease pathogen as well as the ecological factors most important for species establishment. Ticks were collected via tick dragging at 120 sites across southern, central, and eastern Ontario between 2015 and 2018 and tested for tick-borne pathogens. A maximum entropy (Maxent) approach was used to model the potential distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi. Two independent datasets derived from tick dragging at 25 new sites in 2019 and ticks submitted by the public to local health units between 2015 and 2017 were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the models. The model for I. scapularis showed high suitability for blacklegged ticks in eastern Ontario and some regions along the shorelines of the Great Lakes, and moderate suitability near Algonquin Provincial Park and the Georgian Bay with good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.898; ticks from public: AUC = 0.727). The model for B. burgdorferi showed a similar predicted distribution but was more constrained to eastern Ontario, particularly between Ottawa and Kingston, and along Lake Ontario, with similarly good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.958; ticks from public: AUC = 0.863. The ecological variables most important for predicting the distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi included elevation, distance to deciduous and coniferous forest, proportions of agricultural land, water, and infrastructure, mean summer/spring temperature, and cumulative annual degree days above 0°C. Our study presents a novel application of species distribution modelling for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada, and provides an up to date projection of their potential distributions for public health knowledge users.

Seroprevalence and evaluation of risk factors associated with seropositivity for Borrelia burgdorferi in Ontario horses

BACKGROUND

Recently, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), which is the vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, has undergone a range expansion from the northeastern and mid-west United States to areas of southeastern Canada, including parts of Ontario. Understanding the seroprevalence of antibodies against B. burgdorferi in horses and risk factors for exposure is important for monitoring and preventing this emerging disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of 551 horses in southern, central, and eastern Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the seroprevalence of B. burgdorferi in horses in Ontario, Canada; to evaluate risk factors associated with seropositivity; and, to compare the performance of two diagnostic tests.

METHODS

Serum samples were obtained from clinically healthy horses in Ontario, Canada, along with completed questionnaires that were used for the risk factor analysis. Sera were tested with a Multiplex ELISA (Animal Health Diagnostic Center, Cornell University) and C6 ELISA (IDEXX SNAP^® 4Dx^® Plus test, IDEXX Laboratories).

RESULTS

The seroprevalence of B. burgdorferi on at least one test was 17% (91/551), though only 15 (16%) horses tested positive with both tests. A spatial cluster of cases was detected in Eastern Ontario. The odds of being seropositive for B. burgdorferi on the C6 ELISA were significantly increased when oak trees were present by pastures (OR = 7.3 (1.8-29.2), P = .005), while the odds were significantly decreased when regular tick checks were performed (OR = 0.1 (0.01-0.7), P = 0.02).

MAIN LIMITATIONS

Recruitment focused on known areas with blacklegged ticks as well as areas of higher horse density, which may have led to selection bias.

CONCLUSIONS

The expansion of blacklegged tick populations poses an ongoing risk for horses. Assessment of diagnostic testing options and risk factors is important for diagnosis and prevention, and with further investigation this information may be used to propose changes in management.

Invasive alien plant species: Their impact on environment, ecosystem services and human health

Ecological perturbations caused by biotic invasion have been identified as a growing threat to global sustainability. Invasive alien plants species (IAPS) are considered to be one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss and thereby altering the ecosystem services and socio-economic conditions through different mechanisms. Although the ecological impacts of IAPS are well documented, there is a dearth of studies regarding their economic quantification, livelihood considerations, biotechnological prospects (phytoremediation, bioenergy, phyto-synthesis of nanoparticles, biomedical, industrial applications etc.) and human health risk assessments of IAPS. In this context, the current panoramic review aimed to investigate the environmental, socio-ecological and health risks posed by IAPS as well as the compounded impact of IAPS with habitat fragmentation, climate and land use changes. To this end, the need of an integrated trans-disciplinary research is emphasized for the sustainable management of IAPS. The management prospects can be further strengthened through their linkage with geo-spatial technologies (remote sensing and GIS) by mapping and monitoring the IAPS spread. Further, the horizon of IAPS management is expanded to ecological indicator perspectives of IAPS, biosecurity, and risk assessment protocols with critical discussion. Moreover, positive as well as negative implications of the IAPS on environment, health, ecosystem services and socio-economy (livelihood) are listed so that a judicious policy framework could be developed for the IAPS management in order to mitigate the human health implications.

Landscape determinants of density of blacklegged ticks, vectors of Lyme disease, at the northern edge of their distribution in Canada

In eastern North America, including Canada, Lyme disease is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and transmitted to humans by the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis. The last decade has seen a growing incidence of Lyme disease in Canada, following the northward range expansion of I. scapularis tick populations from endemic areas in eastern United States. This may be attributable to movement of the many hosts that they parasitize, including songbirds, deer and small mammals. In this study, we wanted to test the effect of spatial, temporal and ecological variables, on blacklegged tick density and infection rates, near the northern limit of their distribution in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. We found an effect of both proportion of forested areas and distance to roads, on density of I. scapularis ticks and prevalence of infection by B. burgdorferi. We also found an effect of both sampling year and ordinal sampling data on prevalence of infection by B. burgdorferi. In six adjacent sites showing evidence of reproducing I. scapularis populations, we found that forest composition and structure influenced density of I. scapularis ticks. Our results suggest that blacklegged tick density and infection rate in Canada may be influenced by a variety of factors.

Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Ixodes scapularis Population Dynamics and Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission and Prevalence

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model is developed and parametrized based on a collection of lab and field studies. The model is shown to produce biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the hosts when compared to a different set of studies. The model is used to predict the response of Lyme disease risk to a mean annual temperature increase, based on current temperature cycles in Hanover, NH. Many of the risk measures suggested by the literature are shown to change with increased mean annual temperature. The most straightforward measure of disease risk is the abundance of infected questing ticks, averaged over a year. Compared to this measure, which is difficult and resource-intensive to track in the field, all other risk measures considered underestimate the rise of risk with rise in mean annual temperature. The measure coming closest was “degree days above zero.” Disease prevalence in ticks and hosts showed less increase with rising temperature. Single field measurements at the height of transmission season did not show much change at all with rising temperature.

How general are generalist parasites? The small mammal part of the Lyme disease transmission cycle in two ecosystems in northern Europe

The pathogens causing Lyme disease are all vectored by generalist tick species found on a wide range of vertebrates, but spatial and annual variation in host use has rarely been quantified. We here compare the load of Ixodes ricinus (the vector) on small mammals and investigate the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (the pathogen) involved in the enzootic transmission cycle of Lyme disease in two contrasting ecosystems in Norway from 2014 to 2016. The most common larval tick host in the eastern region was the bank vole, while the common shrew dominated in the western region of Norway. However, the wood mouse and the bank vole had consistently higher larval tick loads than the common shrew in both ecosystems. Hence, the evidence indicated that species are differently suitable as hosts, regardless of their abundances. The pathogen infection prevalence was similar among small mammal species, but markedly higher in the region with larger small mammal populations and higher tick loads, while the seasonal and annual variation was less marked. Our study indicated that the generalist I. ricinus shows consistent patterns of load on species of small vertebrate hosts, while B. burgdorferi s.l. (B. afzelii) was a true generalist. The similar roles of host species across regions suggest that disease dynamics can be predicted from host community composition, but predicting the role of host community composition for disease dynamics requires a detailed understanding of the different species population limitations under global change.

Babesia odocoilei and zoonotic pathogens identified from Ixodes scapularis ticks in southern Ontario, Canada

Cervid babesiosis, caused by the protozoan hemoparasite Babesia odocoilei and transmitted by the blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis, is an emerging disease of Canadian cervids. This pathogen has not yet been described in humans. Data are lacking on the role of migratory birds in the adventitious spread of Ba. odocoilei-infected ticks, as well as on the infection status of I. scapularis in environments used by susceptible wildlife hosts. Following a high-mortality outbreak of cervid babesiosis at the Toronto Zoo [TZ], the present study was initiated to investigate Ba. odocoilei and other tick-borne pathogens of veterinary and public health importance (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.), Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Borrelia miyamotoi, and Babesia microti) in I. scapularis at three sites in southern Ontario, Canada. Blanket dragging for questing ticks yielded I. scapularis from the three sites evaluated: TZ, Point Pelee National Park, and Long Point Bird Observatory [LPBO]. Babesia odocoilei was identified in I. scapularis collected by dragging at the TZ and at LPBO. Borrelia burgdorferi s.s. was identified in I. scapularis at all three sites. Anaplasma phagocytophilum was identified in I. scapularis collected from the TZ. During the springs of 2016 and 2017, 1102 northward-migrating birds were examined for ticks at LPBO. One or more I. scapularis were found on 3.2% of birds (n = 595) in 2016, and 6.7% (n = 507) of birds in 2017. Overall, across both years, 0.2% and 0.5% of birds carried one or more I. scapularis ticks that tested PCR-positive for Ba. odocoilei and Bo. burgdorferi s.s., respectively. These data indicate that Ba. odocoilei-positive I. scapularis are found in southern Ontario, and suggest that bird-borne ticks have the potential to contribute to range expansion of both Ba. odocoilei and Bo. burgdorferi s.s. in Canada.

Survival and energy use of Ixodes scapularis nymphs throughout their overwintering period

The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) spends up to 10 months in the soil between feeding as larvae and questing for hosts as nymphs the following year. We tracked the survival and energy use of 4320 engorged larvae evenly divided across 288 microcosms under field conditions from September to July on sites with high (>12 nymphs/150 m2) and low (<1.2 nymphs/150 m2) densities of naturally questing I. scapularis in New York State. Subsets of microcosms were destructively sampled periodically during this period to determine tick survivorship and physiological age. Across all sites tick mortality was low during the winter and increased in the spring and early summer, coincident with increasing energy use. Neither energy use nor mortality differed significantly between sites with high vs low natural tick density, but we did observe a significant positive relationship between soil organic matter content and the survival of I. scapularis during the spring. Our results suggest that the off-host mortality and energy use of I. scapularis nymphs is relatively low in the winter and increases significantly in the spring and early summer.

Tick infestations of wildlife and companion animals in Ontario, Canada, with detection of human pathogens in Ixodes scapularis ticks

The growing risk of transmission of tick-borne zoonotic pathogens to humans in Ontario, Canada, warrants investigations into regional tick distribution, tick burdens of local peridomestic animals, and prevalence of tick-borne pathogens. The objectives of this study were to investigate the geographic distribution and magnitude of tick infestations in opportunistically sampled mammalian wildlife and companion animals (i.e., dogs) in southern Ontario and to test these ticks for evidence of zoonotic tick-borne pathogens. Ticks collected from wildlife carcasses, live-trapped wildlife and companion animals (2015-2016), as well as wildlife diagnostic cases (2011-2013), were identified to species and life stage. Ixodes scapularis ticks were tested by real-time PCR for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Babesia microti, Borrelia miyamotoi and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Amblyomma americanum ticks were tested for Ehrlichia chaffeensis. A total of 1687 ticks of six species were collected from 334 animals, including 224 raccoons (n = 1381 ticks) and 50 dogs (n = 67 ticks). The most common tick species collected from parasitized raccoons were Ixodes texanus (n = 666 ticks) and Dermacentor variabilis (n = 600 ticks), which were removed from 58.5% (median: 2 ticks; range: 1-36) and 49.1% (median: 2 ticks; range: 1-64) of raccoons, respectively. Of I. scapularis tested, 9.3% (4/43) were positive for Bo. burgdorferi s.s. and 2.3% (1/43) for A. phagocytophilum. These results reveal that numerous tick species parasitize common, peridomestic wildlife and that at least two zoonotic, tick-borne pathogens circulate in southern Ontario. Host-tick vector-pathogen dynamics should continue to be monitored in the face of global climate change, landscape alterations and expanding human populations.

Assessing the Repeatability of Tick Dragging as a Method for Ixodes scapularis Surveillance

Tick dragging is an important tool used by public health for Ixodes scapularis surveillance to identify Lyme disease risk areas in Ontario, Canada. Concerns have been raised on the repeatability of tick dragging due to fluctuations that occur in the tick population in response to micro- and macroclimatic variations. Our objective was to assess the repeatability of tick dragging over a short timescale by examining three outcome measures: presence/absence of ticks, tick abundance, and likelihood of tick establishment based on an indicator developed by Clow et al. ( 2018 ). We conducted tick dragging twice per site within a 1-month period at a total of 15 sites in eastern and southern Ontario. Ixodes scapularis were detected at 11 sites. The outcome of presence/absence was consistent at 13 of 15 sites. Abundance was highly variable, changing between each visit at sites where ticks were detected. The likelihood level was consistent at 13 of 15 sites. Based on the kappa statistic, there was substantial agreement between measurements for the presence/absence and the likelihood levels. Our results indicate that both presence/absence and likelihood levels provide more consistent outcomes for tick dragging than tick abundance alone; however, applying the dragging data to the likelihood indicator provides additional information about the potential risk associated with I. scapularis establishment in the area.

A field-based indicator for determining the likelihood of Ixodes scapularis establishment at sites in Ontario, Canada

The emergence of the vector Ixodes scapularis in Ontario, Canada poses a significant public health risk. Both passive and active surveillance approaches have been employed by public health professionals (i.e., government employees) to monitor for the range expansion of this tick. Field surveillance using drag sampling for questing ticks is a recognized and effective method to identify reproducing tick populations. The degree of effort (i.e., number of visits per site) can enhance the sensitivity and specificity of surveillance, but increased effort conflicts with the cost to public health for field surveillance. Here we developed an indicator to determine the likelihood of I. scapularis establishment based on field sampling results. Field data from two established populations of I. scapularis in Ontario were incorporated with previous analyses of surveillance data to create the indicator, which is in the form of a scoring system. The life stage(s) collected, overall abundance and past surveillance findings from a site are all considered and a level is assigned for the likelihood of I. scapularis establishment based on current field sampling results. The likelihood levels are non-zero (i.e., no I. scapularis detected, but risk still present due to adventitious ticks), low, medium or high, and recommendations for future surveillance and public health measures are provided. The indicator was validated against field sampling results from five other established sites in the province and correctly categorized all five areas as high likelihood of establishment. The indicator was also applied to field sampling results from 36 sites of unknown status that were visited twice during the period of 2014-2016. There was substantial agreement of levels between measurements, as calculated using a weighted kappa. The indicator can assist public health professionals with the interpretation of field sampling results and direct their efforts for ongoing surveillance and public health interventions for I. scapularis-borne diseases, including Lyme disease.

Northward range expansion of Ixodes scapularis evident over a short timescale in Ontario, Canada

The invasion of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis into Ontario, Canada poses a significant risk to public health because it is a vector for numerous pathogens, including Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the causative agent of Lyme disease. Baseline field sampling in 2014 and 2015 detected I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi at sites across southern, eastern and central Ontario, including a hot spot in eastern Ontario. A “speed of spread” model for I. scapularis developed by Leighton and colleagues (2012) estimated that the tick’s range was expanding northward at 46 km/year. In 2016, we revisited a subset of sites sampled in 2014 and 2015 to understand the changing nature of risk, and assess whether the rate of tick invasion is consistent with the speed of spread estimate. Ticks were collected via tick dragging at 17 out of 36 sites, 5 of which were new sites for I. scapularis. Samples were positive for B. burgdorferi at 8 sites. No other I. scapularis-borne pathogens were detected. Centrographic statistics revealed an increase in the dispersion of I. scapularis positive sites in eastern Ontario. Field data for each site were then compared to the model’s predicted year of establishment for each census subdivision. Our findings illustrate that the range expansion of I. scapularis and the emergence of B. burgdorferi is ongoing, and provide short timescale evidence of the processes associated with I. scapularis spread. The range front appears to be moving at a rate of ~46 km/year, with colonization of the tick behind this range front occurring at a slower and heterogeneous rate. Assessment of site-level ecological factors did not provide any insight into the underlying processes that may be influencing the colonization of I. scapularis in specific areas. Ongoing field sampling is needed to monitor this dynamic process. This study highlights the current geographic risk associated with Lyme disease, which can be used to target public health interventions to the areas of greatest risk.

Microbiota of field-collected Ixodes scapularis and Dermacentor variabilis from eastern and southern Ontario, Canada

The microbiota of hard ticks has been an area of growing interest due to the potential role that the broader microbial community may play in pathogen carriage and transmission. In the last two decades, Ontario, Canada has experienced rapid changes in the risk of tick-borne disease, primarily due to the range expansion of Ixodes scapularis. Another human-biter, Dermacentor variabilis, is a longstanding resident of the province, but currently poses minimal risk of pathogen transmission. To examine the microbiota of these two species, we collected adult and nymphal I. scapularis and D. variabilis from the eastern and southern regions of the province via tick dragging, and conducted next generation sequencing of 19 samples (composed of 45 ticks) via Illumina MiSeq. A total of 1400469 sequences were detected (median 69118/sample; range 23350-155227). The most abundant families of bacteria were unclassified Clostridiales and Ruminococcaceae for both I. scapularis and D. variabilis. No significant differences in the relative abundances of any phylum, class, order, family or genus were detected between locations (east vs south), sex, life stage or tick species. There were no differences in community membership or structure based on unifrac and AMOVA analyses. Female and male ticks had lower microbial diversity when compared to nymphs, based on the Simpson's index and Shannon evenness index. The findings of our study differ from previous studies of these tick species conducted in other geographic areas, and highlight the potential role geography and related ecological factors may have in shaping the tick microbiota.