Mathematical models of cervical cancer prevention in the Asia Pacific region

Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis of Whole genome sequencing versus Whole exome sequencing in a pediatric population with suspected genetic disorders

Genetic diseases are medical conditions caused by sequence or structural changes in an individual's genome. Whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) are increasingly used for diagnosing suspected genetic conditions in children to reduce the diagnostic delay and accelerating the implementation of appropriate treatments. While more information is becoming available on clinical efficacy and economic sustainability of WES, the broad implementation of WGS is still hindered by higher complexity and economic issues. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of WGS versus WES and standard testing for pediatric patients with suspected genetic disorders. A Bayesian decision tree model was set up. Model parameters were retrieved both from hospital administrative datasets and scientific literature. The analysis considered a lifetime time frame and adopted the perspective of the Italian National Health Service (NHS). Bayesian inference was performed using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. Uncertainty was explored through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a value of information analysis (VOI). The present analysis showed that implementing first-line WGS would be a cost-effective strategy, against the majority of the other tested alternatives at a threshold of €30,000-50,000, for diagnosing outpatient pediatric patients with suspected genetic disorders. According to the sensitivity analyses, the findings were robust to most assumption and parameter uncertainty. Lessons learnt from this modeling study reinforces the adoption of first-line WGS, as a cost-effective strategy, depending on actual difficulties for the NHS to properly allocate limited resources.

Alleviating the burden of diabetes with Health Equity Funds: Economic evaluation of the health and financial risk protection benefits in Cambodia

In Cambodia, diabetes caused nearly 3% of the country’s mortality in 2016 and became the fourth highest cause of disability in 2017. Providing sufficient financial risk protection from health care expenditures may be part of the solution towards effectively tackling the diabetes burden and motivating individuals to appropriately seek care to effectively manage their condition. In this study, we aim to estimate the distributional health and financial impacts of strategies providing financial coverage for diabetes services through the Health Equity Funds (HEF) in Cambodia. The trajectory of diabetes was represented using a Markov model to estimate the societal costs, health impacts, and individual out-of-pocket expenditures associated with six strategies of HEF coverage over a time horizon of 45 years. Input parameters for the model were compiled from published literature and publicly available household survey data. Strategies covered different combinations of types of diabetes care costs (i.e., diagnostic services, medications, and management of diabetes-related complications). Health impacts were computed as the number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted and financial risk protection was analyzed in terms of cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) averted. Model simulations demonstrated that coverage for medications would be cost-effective, accruing health benefits ($27 per DALY averted) and increases in financial risk protection ($2 per case of CHE averted) for the poorest in Cambodia. Women experienced particular gains in health and financial risk protection. Increasing the number of individuals eligible for financial coverage also improved the value of such investments. For HEF coverage, the government would pay between an estimated $28 and $58 per diabetic patient depending on the extent of coverage and services covered. Efforts to increase the availability of services and capacity of primary care facilities to support diabetes care could have far-reaching impacts on the burden of diabetes and contribute to long-term health system strengthening.

Current Status and Future Perspectives of Molecular Prevention Strategies for Cervical Cancers

Cervical cancer continues to be a global health problem; despite the potential for prevention through organised screening programmes that can detect and treat pre-cancerous lesions and also more recently, the availability of HPV (Human Papilloma Virus) vaccines. While routine screening with Pap smear testing has reduced the burden of cervical cancer in the high-income countries, the implementation of organised Pap-based screening programmes has not been found feasible in low-resource settings due to a lack of health care delivery infrastructure and limited health budgets. The well-established causal relationship between cervical cancer development and high-risk-HPV (HR-HPV) infection and the subsequent appreciation of the greater sensitivity of HPV testing over Pap smear cytology eventually lead to HPV testing being incorporated in the primary cervical cancer prevention programmes. An organised cervical cancer screening programme incorporating HR-HPV testing and HPV vaccine administration are currently considered to be the two major interventions for a comprehensive cervical cancer control programme worldwide. However, there are concerns that the requirement of a sophisticated infrastructure with its associated costs may make cervical cancer screening using molecular prevention by HPV testing impracticable to be implemented, especially in resource-poor, low-income countries. Visual Inspection with Acetic acid (VIA) represents one of the alternative methods for cervical cancer screening proposed for the countries with low- to middle-income resources and has gained popularity in India following the successful completion of two randomised controlled trials, but this method but has low sensitivity to detect cervical pre-cancers. More recently, the cost-effectiveness analysis of many studies including randomised controlled trials, even from the low-resource settings, has found that HPV testing is followed by treatment for HPV-positive women to be an effective and cost-effective screening strategy as compared to other screening methods including VIA. The incorporation of self-sampling and HPV testing by partial genotyping has the potential to significantly add to the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness. The current status and future perspectives of molecular prevention strategies for cervical cancer prevention is further discussed.

Cervical cancer prevention in Morocco: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective: Cervical cancer is a huge public health issue in Morocco which represents the second most frequent and fatal cancer among women. Countries that have not yet introduced the HPV vaccine could benefit greatly, but before implementation it is necessary to perform country-specific economic assessments that include current screening practices. Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer so as to calculate the long-term health benefits and costs of HPV vaccination and current screening by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). Starting from a previous transition probability matrix used for a model from Spain, the present model was calibrated to cervical cancer incidence from Morocco. Cost survey data was used to estimate the cost of screening and clinical procedures from the public healthcare perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as 2018US$ per additional year of life saved (YLS) and both costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Results: The expected reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer for current screening would be 14% at a cost of US$551/YLS compared with no intervention, assuming VIA every 3 years in women aged 30-49 at 10% coverage. HPV vaccination of pre-adolescent girls at 70% coverage would reduce the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 62% at a cost of US$1,150/YLS, compared with no intervention. When implementing HPV vaccination in combination with current screening, vaccination would be dominated, and the combined strategy would provide a 69% reduction at a cost of US$2,843/YLS, compared with screening alone. Current screening would be dominated by vaccination when screening coverage is higher than 15%, whereas the combined strategy rapidly exceeds US$4,000/YLS. Conclusions: HPV vaccination could be highly effective and cost-effective in Morocco. Current screening would be good value for money compared with no intervention, but scaling-up screening coverage would make it inefficient compared with vaccination.

Cost-effectiveness of the introduction of two-dose bi-valent (Cervarix) and quadrivalent (Gardasil) HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in women caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV) that leads to a substantial disease burden for health systems. Prevention through vaccination can significantly reduce the prevalence of cervical cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential health and economic impacts of introducing two-dose bivalent (Cervarix) and quadrivalent (Gardasil) HPV vaccines in Bangladesh.

METHODS

The study uses the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing HPV vaccination. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET). The analyses were done from a health system perspective in terms of vaccine delivery routes.

RESULTS

Introduction of bi-valent HPV vaccination was found highly cost-effective (ICER = US$488/DALY) at Gavi (The Vaccine Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations) negotiated prices. The value of ICERs were US$710, US$356 and US$397 per DALY averted for school-based, health facility-based, and outreach-based programs, respectively, which is consistent with the CET range (US$67 to US$854). However, bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines at listed prices were not found cost-effective, with ICERs of US$1405 and US$3250 per DALY averted, respectively, that exceeds the CETs values.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing a two-dose bi-valent HPV vaccination program is cost-effective in Bangladesh at Gavi negotiated prices. Vaccine price is the dominating parameter for the cost-effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines. Both vaccines are not cost-effective at listed prices in Bangladesh. The evaluation highlights that introducing the two-dose bivalent HPV vaccine at Gavi negotiated prices into a national immunization program in Bangladesh is economically viable to reduce the burden of cervical cancer.

Development and application of a framework to estimate health care costs in China: The cervical cancer example

Objectives

Information on healthcare costs in low-and-middle-income countries is limited. This study presents a framework to perform healthcare cost estimates for each province in China.

Methods

This study has two aims. Using cervical cancer as an example, the first aim is to use data (including micro-costing data) from one province to derive estimates for other provinces in China. This used provincial and national Chinese-language statistical reports and considered levels of service delivery, hospital-seeking behaviour, and the urban/rural population distribution. The second aim is to characterise the relationship between the reference costs estimated using the method mentioned above and two sets of cost estimates derived using simplified cost-scaling method with per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Human Development Index (HDI). For simplified methods, regression modelling characterised the relationship between province-specific healthcare costs and macro-economic indicators, then we used the exponential fit to extrapolate costs.

Results

Using the reference method, the estimated costs were found to vary substantially by urban/rural regions and between provinces; the ratios of highest to lowest provincial costs were 3.5 for visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), 4.4 for cold knife conisation (CKC) and 4.6 for stage II cancer treatment. The HDI-based scaling method generally resulted in a better fit to reference costs than the GDP method.

Conclusions

These reference costs for cervical cancer can inform cost-effectiveness evaluation of cervical screening and HPV vaccination in China. HDI-based methods for cost-scaling-based on social, as well as purely economic, factors-have potential to provide more accurate estimates.

Cancer management in the Pacific region: a report on innovation and good practice

Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs) face the challenge of a growing cancer burden. In response to these challenges, examples of innovative practice in cancer planning, prevention, and treatment in the region are emerging, including regionalisation and coalition building in the US-affiliated Pacific nations, a point-of-care test and treat programme for cervical cancer control in Papua New Guinea, improving the management of children with cancer in the Pacific, and surgical workforce development in the region. For each innovation, key factors leading to its success have been identified that could allow the implementation of these new developments in other PICTs or regions outside of the Pacific islands. These factors include the strengthening of partnerships within and between countries, regional collaboration within the Pacific islands (eg, the US-affiliated Pacific nations) and with other regional groupings of small island nations (eg, the Caribbean islands), a local commitment to the idea of change, and the development of PICT-specific programmes.

Cancers in Vietnam-Burden and Control Efforts: A Narrative Scoping Review

Although the burden of cancer is rapidly growing in Vietnam, there was no up-to-date review that describes cancer burden and control in Vietnam throughout the literature. By identifying various risk factors, means of prevention, and methods for early detection, this review seeks to systematically summarize the evidence for the future planning and management of cancer occurrence in Vietnam. Additionally, this report aims to identify improvements which are necessary for the treatment and palliative care of patients with cancer in Vietnam. We employed a hybrid approach including both a scoping review and narrative synthesis for this study. Information was identified, extracted, and charted from various sources, which include international and domestically published studies, in addition to gray literature. Our results illustrate that the burden of cancer in Vietnam has tripled in the past 30 years, and this situation could be partly explained by the growing prevalence of both old and new risk factors. Besides hepatitis B virus, various other important risk factors such as human papilloma virus, tobacco usage, physical inactivity, and improper diets are still not under control in Vietnam. There is presently a lack of national cancer screening programs, and the capacity of cancer care services could not maintain pace with the demands of a rapidly increasing Vietnamese population. Overall, policy frameworks for cancer control in Vietnam are in place, but there is still a lack of proper financing and governing models necessary to support a sustainable program. In conclusion, Cancer and its associated consequences are both persistent and emerging problems in Vietnam, and the results of cancer control programs are limited. A comprehensive and evidence-based approach toward the prevention and treatment of cancer should be the future direction for Vietnam.

Medical costs for the treatment of cervical cancer at central hospitals in Vietnam

Cervical cancer remains the second most common cancer amongst female aged 15 to 44 years old in Vietnam. We estimated medical costs for the treatment of cervical cancer patients. We employed the standard costing approach and health care provider perspective. We first computed the unit cost of 22 medical services related to cervical cancer treatments and then, based on standard cervical cancer treatment protocols, we estimated the cost of nine treatment scenarios for cervical cancer patients. We found that the medical costs for treatment of cervical cancers at central hospitals in Vietnam increased as the cancer progresses into later stages.

Cost analysis of Human Papillomavirus-related cervical diseases and genital warts in Swaziland

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has proven to be the cause of several severe clinical conditions on the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus, oropharynx and penis. Several studies have assessed the costs of cervical lesions, cervical cancer (CC), and genital warts. However, few have been done in Africa and none in Swaziland. Cost analysis is critical in providing useful information for economic evaluations to guide policymakers concerned with the allocation of resources in order to reduce the disease burden.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prevalence-based cost of illness (COI) methodology was used to investigate the economic burden of HPV-related diseases. We used a top-down approach for the cost associated with hospital care and a bottom-up approach to estimate the cost associated with outpatient and primary care. The current study was conducted from a provider perspective since the state bears the majority of the costs of screening and treatment in Swaziland. All identifiable direct medical costs were considered for cervical lesions, cervical cancer and genital warts, which were primary diagnoses during 2015. A mix of bottom up micro-costing ingredients approach and top-down approaches was used to collect data on costs. All costs were computed at the price level of 2015 and converted to dollars ($).

RESULTS

The total annual estimated direct medical cost associated with screening, managing and treating cervical lesions, CC and genital warts in Swaziland was $16 million. The largest cost in the analysis was estimated for treatment of high-grade cervical lesions and cervical cancer representing 80% of the total cost ($12.6 million). Costs for screening only represented 5% of the total cost ($0.9 million). Treatment of genital warts represented 6% of the total cost ($1million).

CONCLUSION

According to the cost estimations in this study, the economic burden of HPV-related cervical diseases and genital warts represents a major public health issue in Swaziland. Prevention of HPV infection with a national HPV immunization programme for pre-adolescent girls would prevent the majority of CC related deaths and associated costs.

Challenges in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Modelling of HPV Vaccines in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Practice Recommendations

BACKGROUND

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a number of challenges in implementing cervical cancer prevention programmes that do not apply in high-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

This review assessed how context-specific challenges of implementing cervical cancer prevention strategies in LMICs were accounted for in existing cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

METHODS

The databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, Web of Science, and the Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (CEA) Registry were searched for studies published from 2006 to 2015. A descriptive, narrative, and interpretative synthesis of data was undertaken.

RESULTS

Of the 33 studies included in the review, the majority acknowledged cost per vaccinated girl (CVG) (26 studies) and vaccine coverage rate (21 studies) as particular challenges for LMICs, while nine studies identified screening coverage rate as a challenge. Most of the studies estimated CVG as a composite of different cost items. However, the basis for the items within this composite cost was unclear. The majority used an assumption rather than an observed rate to represent screening and vaccination coverage rates. CVG, vaccine coverage and screening coverage were shown by some studies through sensitivity analyses to reverse the conclusions regarding cost-effectiveness, thereby significantly affecting policy recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

While many studies recognized aspects of the particular challenges of HPV vaccination in LMICs, greater efforts need to be made in adapting models to account for these challenges. These include adapting costings of HPV vaccine delivery from other countries, learning from the outcomes of cervical cancer screening programmes in the same geographical region, and taking into account the country's previous experience with other vaccination programmes.

Mapping HPV Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening Practice in the Pacific Region-Strengthening National and Regional Cervical Cancer Prevention

OBJECTIVE

To provide background information for strengthening cervical cancer prevention in the Pacific by mapping current human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening practices, as well as intent and barriers to the introduction and maintenance of national HPV vaccination programmes in the region.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey among ministry of health officials from 21 Pacific Island countries and territories (n=21).

RESULTS

Cervical cancer prevention was rated as highly important, but implementation of prevention programs were insufficient, with only two of 21 countries and territories having achieved coverage of cervical cancer screening above 40%. Ten of 21 countries and territories had included HPV vaccination in their immunization schedule, but only two countries reported coverage of HPV vaccination above 60% among the targeted population. Key barriers to the introduction and continuation of HPV vaccination were reported to be: (i) Lack of sustainable financing for HPV vaccine programs; (ii) Lack of visible government endorsement; (iii) Critical public perception of the value and safety of the HPV vaccine; and (iv) Lack of clear guidelines and policies for HPV vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Current practices to prevent cervical cancer in the Pacific Region do not match the high burden of disease from cervical cancer. A regional approach, including reducing vaccine prices by bulk purchase of vaccine, technical support for implementation of prevention programs, operational research and advocacy could strengthen political momentum for cervical cancer prevention and avoid risking the lives of many women in the Pacific.

Cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

With GAVI support, Vietnam introduced Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine in 2010 without evidence on cost-effectiveness. We aimed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of Hib vaccine from societal and governmental perspectives.

METHOD

We constructed a decision-tree cohort model to estimate the costs and effectiveness of Hib vaccine versus no Hib vaccine for the 2011 birth cohort. The disease burden was estimated from local epidemiologic data and literature. Vaccine delivery costs were calculated from governmental reports and 2013 vaccine prices. A prospective cost-of-illness study was conducted to estimate treatment costs. The human capital approach was employed to estimate productivity loss. The incremental costs of Hib vaccine were divided by cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted. We used the WHO recommended cost-effectiveness thresholds of an intervention being highly cost-effective if incremental costs per DALY were below GDP per capita.

RESULT

From the societal perspective, incremental costs per discounted case, death and DALY averted were US$ 6252, US$ 26,476 and US$ 1231, respectively; the break-even vaccine price was US$ 0.69/dose. From the governmental perspective, the results were US$ 6954, US$ 29,449, and US$ 1373, respectively; the break-even vaccine price was US$ 0.48/dose. Vietnam's GDP per capita was US$ 1911 in 2013. In deterministic sensitivity analysis, morbidity and mortality parameters were among the most influential factors. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Hib vaccine had an 84% and 78% probability to be highly cost-effective from the societal and governmental perspectives, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Hib vaccine was highly cost-effective from both societal and governmental perspectives. However, with GAVI support ending in 2016, the government will face a six-fold increase in its vaccine budget at the 2013 vaccine price. The variability of vaccine market prices adds an element of uncertainty. Increased government commitment and improved resource allocation decision making will be necessary to retain Hib vaccine.

The value of male human papillomavirus vaccination in preventing cervical cancer and genital warts in a low-resource setting

OBJECTIVE

To estimate health benefits and incremental cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of pre-adolescent boys and girls compared with girls alone for preventing cervical cancer and genital warts.

DESIGN

Model-based economic evaluation.

SETTING

Southern Vietnam.

POPULATION

Males and females aged ≥9 years.

METHODS

We simulated dynamic HPV transmission to estimate cervical cancer and genital warts cases. Models were calibrated to epidemiological data from south Vietnam.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs): cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

RESULTS

Vaccinating girls alone was associated with reductions in lifetime cervical cancer risk ranging from 20 to 56.9% as coverage varied from 25 to 90%. Adding boys to the vaccination programme yielded marginal incremental benefits (≤3.6% higher absolute cervical cancer risk reduction), compared with vaccinating girls alone at all coverages. At ≤25 international dollars (I$) per vaccinated adolescent (I$5 per dose), HPV vaccination of boys was below the threshold of Vietnam's per-capita GDP (I$2800), with ICERs ranging from I$734 per QALY at 25% coverage to I$2064 per QALY for 90% coverage. Including health benefits from averting genital warts yielded more favourable ICERs, and vaccination of boys at I$10/dose became cost-effective at or below 75% coverage. Using a lower cost-effectiveness threshold of 50% of Vietnam's GDP (I$1400), vaccinating boys was no longer attractive at costs above I$5 per dose regardless of coverage.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of boys may be cost-effective at low vaccine costs, but provides little benefit over vaccinating girls only. Focusing on achieving high vaccine coverage of girls may be more efficient for southern Vietnam and similar low-resource settings.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Limited cervical cancer reduction from including boys in HPV vaccination of girls in low-resource settings.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance

INTRODUCTION

From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

METHODS

The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country.

RESULTS

By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

Quantifying clinical HPV4 dose inefficiencies in a safety net population

PURPOSE

HPV4 is the most expensive vaccine requiring three appropriately timed doses to provide maximal efficacy against two oncogenic HPV types. The primary purpose of this study is to quantify the use of HPV4 vaccine in a safety net health care system in terms of its inefficiencies.

METHODS

A retrospective study of HPV4 dosing from 2006-2009, among females 10-26 years old who sought care in a safety net health care system was conducted to determine dose usage patterns among those at highest risk for cervical cancer. Dose descriptors abstracted from the electronic medical record (EMR) included timing and number in series as well as characteristics of the person to whom and visit at which the dose was given. Dose inefficiencies were separated into "less than three doses" and "mistimed doses" for analysis.

RESULTS

The majority (66%) of HPV4 doses administered were insufficient to induce the maximal immune response necessary for HPV infection prevention. Among on-time doses, 58% were singleton or doublet doses. Mistimed doses accounted for 19% of all doses administered with late intervals being more common than early intervals among those receiving more than one dose (9% vs. 4%, p<0.001). Third doses were mistimed twice as often as second doses (10% vs. 5%, p<0.001). Black women were more likely to have a mistimed second dose and Hispanic women more likely to have a mistimed third dose compared to white women (OR = 1.70 (95% CI: 1.11, 2.61 and 2.44 (1.19, 5.00), respectively). The HPV4-only visit type at which HPV4 was initiated was the most significant predictor of on-time doublet completion.

CONCLUSIONS

In a safety net health care system the large inefficiencies associated with HPV4 vaccination must be addressed in order to maximize our patient's cervical cancer prevention.

Acceptability and uptake of female adolescent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong: a survey of mothers and adolescents

BACKGROUND

Organized population-based HPV vaccination programs can be effective in reducing the burden of cervical cancer, especially in the absence of a comprehensive cervical screening program (e.g. Hong Kong). Assessment of vaccine acceptability is important when evaluating the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of such vaccination programs.

METHODS

To provide a more representative and updated assessment on the acceptability of female adolescent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong, we conducted surveys in 2008 among 1022 mothers with daughters aged ≤ 18 years through random digit-dialing telephone interviewing and 2167 schoolgirls aged 11-18 years using two-stage stratified cluster sampling. We conducted the maternal survey again in 2012 with an independent group of 1005 mothers.

RESULTS

In 2008, 2.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.8-3.2%) of the recruited schoolgirls reported having received HPV vaccination. In 2012, the mothers reported that 9.1% (7.0-11.6%) of their daughters who were in the same age range (11-18 years) as the schoolgirls had been vaccinated (p<0.01). Regarding acceptability, 27.5% (24.8-30.4%) and 37.6% (34.5-40.8%) of the mothers were willing to have their daughters vaccinated at market price in 2008 and 2012 (p<0.01), respectively. 27.1% (25.2-29.1%) of the schoolgirls were willing to receive HPV vaccination at market price in 2008. The willingness to pay for full-course vaccination among mothers had a median of US$128/HK$1000 (50% central range=US$64-192/HK$500-1500), i.e. substantially lower than the current market price.

CONCLUSIONS

The gap between acceptability and actual uptake of HPV vaccination among adolescent girls suggested that coverage is likely to be low without an organized HPV vaccination program, although the difference might be partially attributed to the possibility that at the time of the interview female adolescents who were willing to be vaccinated had not yet taken action. Policymakers should devise tailored, targeted and efficient vaccination strategies to achieve universal coverage for an effectively organized HPV vaccination program.

Is Age-targeted full-field digital mammography screening cost-effective in emerging countries? A micro simulation model

OBJECTIVE

The present paper estimates the cost-effectiveness of population-based breast cancer (BC) screening strategies in Brazil for women under 50 years from the perspective of the Brazilian public health system.

METHODS

A Markov model, simulating the natural history of female BC sufferers in Brazil, was developed. This model compares the lifetime effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of seven BC screening strategies in women between 40 to 49 years: (A) usual care; (B) annual screen-film mammography (SFM); (C) SFM every 2 years; (D) annual full-field digital mammography (FFDM); (E) FFDM every 2 years; and (F and G) age-targeted options, with FFDM annually until 49 years and SFM annually (or biannually) from 50 to 69 years.

RESULTS

Adopting SFM every 2 years (Strategy C) was found to be slightly more costly but also more effective in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of R$ 1,509 per QALY gained. Annual SFM (Strategy B) was the next best option at an additional R$ 13,131 per QALY gained. FFDM annual screening (Strategy E) was dominated by Strategy F, the age-targeted option. For younger women, the age-based strategy had an ICER of R$ 30,520 per QALY gained. In the sensitivity analysis, the ICERs ranged from R$ 15,300 to R$ 257,899 in different regions of the country, depending on BC incidence, population age distribution, and mammography coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

SFM every 2 years for all women starting between the ages of 40 and 49 would be a cost-effective strategy. Taking into account regional specificities, age-targeted FFDM is one option to improve the outcomes of BC patients in an emerging country.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in low and middle income countries: a systematic review

The World Health Organization recommends establishing that human papillomavirus vaccination is cost-effective before vaccine introduction. We searched Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library to 1 April 2012 for economic evaluations of human papillomavirus vaccination in low and middle income countries. We found 25 articles, but almost all low income countries and many middle income countries lacked country-specific studies. Methods, assumptions and consequently results varied widely, even for studies conducted for the same country. Despite the heterogeneity, most studies conclude that vaccination is likely to be cost-effective and possibly even cost saving, particularly in settings without organized cervical screening programmes. However, study uncertainty could be reduced by clarity about vaccine prices and vaccine delivery costs. The review supports extending vaccination to low income settings where vaccine prices are competitive, donor funding is available, cervical cancer burden is high and screening options are limited.

Economic modelling assessment of the HPV quadrivalent vaccine in Brazil: a dynamic individual-based approach

We examined the cost-effectiveness of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine for the pre-adolescent female population of Brazil. Using demographic, epidemiological and cancer data, we developed a dynamic individual-based model representing the natural history of HPV/cervical cancer as well as the impact of screening and vaccination programmes. Assuming the current screening strategies, we calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cohorts with and without vaccination taking into account different combinations of vaccination coverage (50%, 70%, 90%) and cost per vaccinated woman (US$25, US$55, US$125, US$556). The results varied from cost-saving (coverage 50% or 70% and cost per vaccinated woman US$25) to 5950 US$/QALY (coverage 90% and cost per vaccinated 556 US$). In a scenario in which a booster shot was needed after 10 years in order to secure lifelong protection, the ICER resulted in 13,576 US$/QALY. Considering the very cost-effective and cost-effective thresholds based on Brazil's GDP per capita, apart from the booster scenario which would be deemed cost-effective, all the other scenarios would be deemed very cost-effective. Both the cost per dose of vaccine and discount rate (5%) had an important impact on the results. Vaccination in addition to the current screening programme is likely to save years of life and, depending on the cost of vaccination, may even save resources. Price negotiations between governments and manufacturers will be paramount in determining that the vaccine not only represents good value for money, but is also affordable in middle-income countries like Brazil.

Estimation of the costs of cervical cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in rural Shanxi Province, China: a micro-costing study

Background

Cost estimation is a central feature of health economic analyses. The aim of this study was to use a micro-costing approach and a societal perspective to estimate aggregated costs associated with cervical cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in rural China.

Methods

We assumed that future screening programs will be organized at a county level (population ~250,000), and related treatments will be performed at county or prefecture hospitals; therefore, this study was conducted in a county and a prefecture hospital in Shanxi during 2008–9. Direct medical costs were estimated by gathering information on quantities and prices of drugs, supplies, equipment and labour. Direct non-medical costs were estimated via structured patient interviews and expert opinion.

Results

Under the base case assumption of a high-volume screening initiative (11,475 women screened annually per county), the aggregated direct medical costs of visual inspection, self-sampled careHPV (Qiagen USA) screening, clinician-sampled careHPV, colposcopy and biopsy were estimated as US$2.64,$7.49,$7.95,$3.90 and $5.76, respectively. Screening costs were robust to screening volume (<5% variation if 2,000 women screened annually), but costs of colposcopy/biopsy tripled at the lower volume. Direct medical costs of Loop Excision, Cold-Knife Conization and Simple and Radical Hysterectomy varied from $61–544, depending on the procedure and whether conducted at county or prefecture level. Direct non-medical expenditure varied from $0.68–$3.09 for screening/diagnosis and $83–$494 for pre-cancer/cancer treatment.

Conclusions

Diagnostic costs were comparable to screening costs for high-volume screening but were greatly increased in lower-volume situations, which is a key consideration for the scale-up phase of new programs. The study’s findings will facilitate cost-effectiveness evaluation and budget planning for cervical cancer prevention initiatives in China.

Estimation of the costs of cervical cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in rural Shanxi Province, China: a micro-costing study

BACKGROUND

Cost estimation is a central feature of health economic analyses. The aim of this study was to use a micro-costing approach and a societal perspective to estimate aggregated costs associated with cervical cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in rural China.

METHODS

We assumed that future screening programs will be organized at a county level (population ~250,000), and related treatments will be performed at county or prefecture hospitals; therefore, this study was conducted in a county and a prefecture hospital in Shanxi during 2008-9. Direct medical costs were estimated by gathering information on quantities and prices of drugs, supplies, equipment and labour. Direct non-medical costs were estimated via structured patient interviews and expert opinion.

RESULTS

Under the base case assumption of a high-volume screening initiative (11,475 women screened annually per county), the aggregated direct medical costs of visual inspection, self-sampled careHPV (Qiagen USA) screening, clinician-sampled careHPV, colposcopy and biopsy were estimated as US$2.64,$7.49,$7.95,$3.90 and $5.76, respectively. Screening costs were robust to screening volume (<5% variation if 2,000 women screened annually), but costs of colposcopy/biopsy tripled at the lower volume. Direct medical costs of Loop Excision, Cold-Knife Conization and Simple and Radical Hysterectomy varied from $61-544, depending on the procedure and whether conducted at county or prefecture level. Direct non-medical expenditure varied from $0.68-$3.09 for screening/diagnosis and $83-$494 for pre-cancer/cancer treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnostic costs were comparable to screening costs for high-volume screening but were greatly increased in lower-volume situations, which is a key consideration for the scale-up phase of new programs. The study's findings will facilitate cost-effectiveness evaluation and budget planning for cervical cancer prevention initiatives in China.

Cost-effectiveness analysis for Pap smear screening and human papillomavirus DNA testing and vaccination

INTRODUCTION

As the effectiveness of cytology-based screening programme for cervical cancer in mortality reduction has reached a plateau, various preventive strategies have been considered, including intensive Pap smear screening and the supplemental use of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test or HPV vaccination. Cost and effectiveness of these various preventive strategies are therefore of great concern for health policy makers.

OBJECTIVE

We intended to assess whether the combination of HPV DNA testing or HPV vaccination with Pap smear screening programme or the sole annual Pap smear screening is more effective and cost-effective in prevention of cervical cancer than the existing triennial Pap smear screening programme.

METHODS

A Markov decision model was constructed to compare total costs and effectiveness between different preventive strategies (including annual Pap smear, HPV DNA testing or HPV vaccination together with Pap smear screening programme) as opposed to the triennial Pap smear screening alone (the comparator). Probabilistic cost-effectiveness (C-E) analysis was adopted to plot a series of simulated incremental C-E ratios scattered over C-E plane and also to yield the acceptability curve for different comparisons of strategies. The threshold of vaccine cost and the influence of attendance rate were also investigated.

RESULTS

Compared with triennial Pap smear screening programme, most of preventive strategies cost more but gain additional life years (quadrant I of C-E plane) except HPV DNA testing with Pap smear every 5 years dominated by triennial Pap smear screening programme. The most cost-effective strategy was annual Pap smear (incremental C-E ratio = $31 698), followed by HPV DNA testing with Pap smear every 3 years ($36 627), and vaccination programme with triennial Pap smear screening ($44 688) with the corresponding cost-effective probabilities by the acceptability curve being 65.52%, 52.08% and 35.84% given the threshold of $40 000 of willingness to pay. Vaccination combined with triennial Pap smear would be as cost-effective as annual Pap smear provided the cost of vaccination was lowered to $250 per full course of injection.

CONCLUSIONS

Among various preventive strategies annual Pap smear screening programme is still the most cost-effective and additional HPV DNA testing is a cost-effective choice under a reasonable threshold of willingness to pay. Vaccination programme in combination with triennial screening would be cost-effective if vaccine cost can be greatly reduced in a large economic scale.

Cervical cancer screening among HIV-infected women: an economic evaluation in a middle-income country

Due to the recent widespread availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in middle-income countries, there has been an increase in life expectancy for women on HAART, but no corresponding decrease in cervical cancer incidence. This study evaluates the optimal cervical cancer screening strategy for HIV-infected women in a middle-income country. We developed a mathematical model, which simulates the natural history of the HPV infection, as well as the HIV-mediated immunosupression among women in Brazil. Our model was calibrated using data from the IPEC/FIOCRUZ Women's HIV-infected cohort. The model compares the lifetime effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of strategies combining cytology, HPV DNA test and colposcopy at different screening intervals for different CD4 count strata (27 strategies in total). We found that the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness profile (cost-effectiveness ratio-U$4,911/year of life saved [YLS] and probability of being cost-effective-86%) was HPV testing followed by cytology triage every year for all HIV infected women, considering a very cost-effective threshold given by Brazil's GDP per capita (US$8,625/YLS). The results were robust to changes in the input parameters as demonstrated in one-way, scenario, threshold and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our study indicates that annual HPV testing followed by cytology triage for all HIV-infected women is likely to be very cost-effective in a middle-income country like Brazil. The results reflect the synergic effect of using a highly sensitive screening test (HPV DNA test) in sequence with a highly specific test (cytology).

Comparative evaluation of the potential impact of rotavirus versus HPV vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries: a preliminary analysis focused on the relative disease burden

BACKGROUND

Immunization policymakers at global and local levels need to establish priorities among new vaccines competing for limited resources. However, comparison of the potential impact of single vaccination programs is challenging, primarily due to the limited number of vaccine analyses as well as their differing analytic approaches and reporting formats. The purpose of this study is to provide early insight into how the comparative impact of different new vaccines could be assessed in resource-poor settings with respect to affordability, cost-effectiveness, and distributional equity.

METHODS

We compared the health, economic, and financial consequences of introducing the two vaccines in 72 GAVI-eligible countries using a number of different outcome measures to evaluate affordability, cost-effectiveness, and distributional equity. We use simple static models to standardize the analytic framework and improve comparability between the two new vaccines. These simple models were validated by leveraging previously developed, more complex models for rotavirus and human papillomavirus (HPV).

RESULTS

With 70% coverage of a single-age cohort of infants and pre-adolescent girls, the lives saved with rotavirus (~274,000) and HPV vaccines (~286,000) are similar, although the timing of averted mortality differs; rotavirus-attributable deaths occur in close proximity to infection, while HPV-related cancer deaths occur largely after age 30. Deaths averted per 1000 vaccinated are 5.2 (rotavirus) and 12.6 (HPV). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted were ~7.15 million (rotavirus) and ~1.30 million (HPV), reflecting the greater influence of discounting on the latter, given the lagtime between vaccination and averted cancer. In most countries (68 for rotavirus and 66 for HPV, at the cost of I$25 per vaccinated individual) the incremental cost per DALY averted was lower than each country's GDP per capita. Financial resources required for vaccination with rotavirus are higher than with HPV since both genders are vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

While lifesaving benefits of rotavirus and HPV vaccines will be realized at different times, the number of lives saved over each target populations' lifetimes will be similar. Model-based analyses that use a standardized analytic approach and generate comparable outputs can enrich the priority-setting dialogue. Although new vaccines may be deemed cost-effective, other factors including affordability and distributional equity need to be considered in different settings. We caution that for priority setting in an individual country, more rigorous comparisons should be performed, using more comprehensive models and considering all relevant vaccines and delivery strategies.

Estimating the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence in Mali

Human papillomavirus vaccines have potential to reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality; however, cultural and economic barriers may hinder success in developing countries. We assessed impact of a single vaccine campaign in Mali with use of mathematical modeling. Our model shows that decreases in the prevalence of Human papillomavirus infection are proportional to achieved vaccination coverage.

Economic evaluation of strategies for managing women with equivocal cytological results in Brazil

In Brazil, current management of women with screening results of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) is to offer repeat testing at 6-month intervals. Alternative management strategies that have been adopted in many high-income settings are to offer immediate colposcopy referral or to utilise human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as a triage for colposcopy referral, and to consider different strategies according to women's age. The objective of our study was to evaluate the lifetime cost effectiveness in terms of cost per years of life saved (YLS) of these alternative strategies for a middle income setting. A Markov model was developed using data from the Ludwig-McGill cohort and calibrated to independent observational datasets and local cost estimates obtained. In the base-case analysis, repeat cytology was the least costly strategy but also the least effective. Based on the WHO threshold for very cost-effective interventions, HPV triage for women above 30 years-old was the strategy with the highest probability of being cost effective. HPV triage including younger women with ASCUS results would also be a cost-effective option. Whilst there was a slight further gain in effectiveness with immediate colposcopy referral, it was also more expensive and did not appear to be cost effective. Threshold analysis indicated that an HPV test would have to be more than twice as expensive as a cytology test for HPV triage to no longer be cost effective. In conclusion, our results indicate that in middle income settings HPV triage is likely to be the optimal strategy for managing women presenting with ASC-US results.

EUROGIN 2008 roadmap on cervical cancer prevention

The EUROGIN 2008 Roadmap represents a continuing effort to provide updated information on primary and secondary prevention of cervical cancer. The report addresses several areas including the progress made toward global implementation of currently licensed human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, the possibilities and value of future-generation HPV vaccines, endpoints under consideration for evaluation of candidate HPV vaccines, and monitoring impact of HPV vaccination programmes that can be implemented within developed and less-developed countries. For the sake of completeness, a short update on the evolution of HPV testing in primary screening programmes at present and after HPV vaccine introduction has also been included. The report is available on the EUROGIN website (www.eurogin.com).

Modeling cervical cancer prevention in developed countries

Cytology-based screening has reduced cervical cancer mortality in countries able to implement, sustain and financially support organized programs that achieve broad coverage. These ongoing secondary prevention efforts considerably complicate the question of whether vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 should be introduced. Policy questions focus primarily on the target ages of vaccination, appropriate ages for a temporary "catch-up" program, possible revisions in screening policies to optimize synergies with vaccination, including the increased used of HPV DNA testing, and the inclusion of boys in the vaccination program. Decision-analytic models are increasingly being developed to simulate disease burden and interventions in different settings in order to evaluate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary interventions for informed decision-making. This article is a focused review on existing mathematical models that have been used to evaluate HPV vaccination in the context of developed countries with existing screening programs. Despite variations in model assumptions and uncertainty in existing data, pre-adolescent vaccination of girls has been consistently found to be attractive in the context of current screening practices, provided there is complete and lifelong vaccine protection and widespread vaccination coverage. Questions related to catch-up vaccination programs, potential benefits of other non-cervical cancer outcomes and inclusion of boys are subject to far more uncertainty, and results from these analyses have reached conflicting conclusions. Most analyses find that some catch-up vaccination is warranted but becomes increasingly unattractive as the catch-up age is extended, and vaccination of boys is unlikely to be cost-effective if reasonable levels of coverage are achieved in girls or coverage among girls can be improved. The objective of this review is to highlight points of consensus and qualitative themes, to discuss the areas of divergent findings, and to provide insight into critical decisions related to cervical cancer prevention.

Recommendations for cervical cancer prevention in Asia Pacific

Asia Oceania includes countries from both the Asia Pacific region and Australasia, which cover very diverse geographical areas and populations as well as bearing 52% of the cervical cancer burden in the world. Human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype distribution in women with normal cytology varies between countries in this region, as well as with the distribution typically observed in worldwide estimates or in Western countries. HPV-16 remains the predominant oncogenic type for high-grade cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer across the region, and HPV-18 is generally among the five most common types. HPV-58 is commonly found in cervical cancer as well as in women with normal cytology, and HPV-31, 33 and 35 are relatively less frequent in these regions compared to the West. While screening programmes have been proposed and implemented in several populations, successful programmes are rather limited and the majority of countries still have no or minimal screening services. Prophylactic HPV vaccination will only be feasible when it becomes affordable, thus the current priority and the short-term goal for cervical cancer control is to identify feasible and effective screening measures, and to find the most effective way to combine vaccination with sustainable screening programmes. This Regional Report has carefully described the disease burden of HPV and cervical cancer and the current situations in cervical cancer prevention for many countries in the Asia Oceania region. These data identify the many challenges and opportunities to be considered for policy decisions for cervical cancer control. Furthermore, this report presents the results of advanced decision analytic models calibrated to countries in the region that provide early insight into what strategies are most promising and those likely to be cost-effective and affordable. It thus provides a synthesis of the available evidence-based scientific information, in the context of a significant and systematic international review, that is likely to be useful to governments and public health providers.