Cost-effectiveness of dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination in 50-year-olds

How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts.

DESIGN

Agent-based model representing a typical NH.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

NH residents and staff.

METHODS

We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns.

RESULTS

Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.

Optimization of Elderly Influenza and Pneumococcal Immunization Programs in Beijing, China Using Health Economic Evaluations: A Modeling Study

(1) Background: Currently, residents ≥ 60 and ≥65 years old in Beijing, China, are eligible for free influenza and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPSV23), respectively. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of current and alternative strategies of dual influenza and PPSV23 vaccination among the elderly in Beijing. (2) Methods: We developed a Markov state-transition model to compare the costs and the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with four influenza and PPSV23 vaccination strategies among the elderly in Beijing. The strategies were as follows: (1) no vaccination; (2) only flu vaccine for people ≥ 60 years old; (3) flu vaccine for people ≥ 60 years old and PPSV23 for people ≥ 65 years old; and (4) dual influenza vaccines and PPSV23 for people ≥ 60 years old. Incremental costs and QALYs were quantified to determine the optimal option. If dominant strategies emerged, the Chinese gross domestic product per capita in 2021 (80,976 CNY) was used as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold to covert QALYs into the monetary equivalent. (3) Results: The current program saved costs and increased QALYs compared to no vaccination or flu vaccine-only strategies. However, extending free PPSV23 to people ≥ 60 years old saved 0.35 CNY additionally while increasing QALYs marginally compared with the current policy. Results were robust in all sensitivity analyses. (4) Conclusion: Beijing's current dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination program was cost-effective among the elderly compared with the preceding policies of no vaccination and flu-only immunization programs. However, the program can further save money while enhancing the population health by extending PPSV23 to all people ≥ 60 years old.

Lowering the recommended age for the free and active offer of influenza vaccination in Italy: clinical and economic impact analysis in the Liguria region

Objective

we estimated the epidemiological and budget impact of lowering the recommended age for influenza immunization with quadrivalent vaccine actively offered and administered free of charge to persons over 50 years old by public immunization services.

Methods

a multi-cohort, deterministic, static Markov model was populated by real-world data on the clinical and economic impact of Influenza-Like Illness and Lower Respiratory Tract Infection over 1 year. Four scenarios featuring different vaccine coverage rates were compared with the base case; coverage rates in subjects with and without risk factors were considered separately.

Results

compared with the base case, adopting scenarios 1–4 would reduce the annual number of influenza cases by 6.5%, 10.8%, 13.8% and 3.4%, Emergency Department accesses by 10.7%, 9.1%, 15.4% and 4.6%, complications by 8.9%, 9.9%, 14.7% and 4.1%, and the hospitalization of complicated cases by 11%, 9.1%, 15.4% and 4.5%, respectively. The four scenarios would require an additional investment (vaccine purchase and administration) of €316,996, €529,174, €677,539, and €168,633, respectively, in comparison with the base case. Scenario 1 proved to be cost-saving in the 60–64-year age-group. The incremental costs of implementing the other hypothetical scenarios ranged from 2.7% (scenario 4) to 13.2% (scenario 3).

Conclusions

lowering the recommended age for influenza vaccination to 60 years would allow a high proportion of subjects at risk for severe influenza to be reached and would save money.

Cost-effectiveness of dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination among the elderly in Shenzhen, China

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination for the elderly in Shenzhen, China.

METHODS

A Markov state-transition model with a weekly cycle was developed to compare the outcomes of dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination for the prevention of influenza and pneumococcal infections compared with no vaccination among 70-74 years old people in Shenzhen over 5 years. The model allowed seasonal variation of influenza activity. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) discounted at 5% annually from the societal perspective. The impact of parameter uncertainty on the results was examined using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

RESULTS

In the base case, dual vaccination prevented 5042 influenza infections, 26 IPD cases, 3 disabilities, 34 deaths, and cost US$7.1 per person while resulting in a net gain of 0.0026 QALYs compared with no vaccination. Using once the Chinese gross domestic product per capita in 2019 (US$10,289) as the willingness-to-pay threshold, dual vaccination was cost-effective with an ICER of US$2699 per QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the ICER was relatively sensitive to changes in influenza attack rates and influenza vaccine effectiveness. Based on the results of PSA with 1000 Monte Carlo simulations, receiving both vaccines was cost-effective in 100% of the repetitions.

CONCLUSION

The current study provides evidence that dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination is a cost-effective disease prevention strategy for the elderly in Shenzhen, China.

Inclusion of Safety-Related Issues in Economic Evaluations for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Review

(1) Background: Vaccines for seasonal influenza are a good preventive and cost-effective strategy. However, it is unknown if and how these economic evaluations include the adverse events following immunization (AEFI), and what the impact of such inclusion is on the health economic outcomes. (2) Methods: We searched the literature, up to January 2020, to identify economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccines that considered AEFIs. The review protocol was published in PROSPERO (CDR42017058523). (3) Results: A total of 52 economic evaluations considered AEFI-related parameters in their analyses, reflecting 16% of the economic evaluations on seasonal influenza vaccines in the initial study selection. Most studies used the societal perspective (64%) and evaluated vaccination of children (37%). Where considered, studies included direct medical costs of AEFIs (90%), indirect costs (27%), and disutilities/quality-adjusted life years loss due to AEFIs (37%). The majority of these studies accounted for the effects of the costs of AEFI on cost-effectiveness for Guillain–Barré syndrome. In those papers allowing cost share estimation, direct medical cost of AFEIs was less than 2% of total direct costs. (4) Conclusions: Although the overall impact of AEFIs on the cost-effectiveness outcomes was found to be low, we urge their inclusion in economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccines to reflect comprehensive reports for the decision makers and end-users of the vaccination strategies.

The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R₀) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R₀ 2.0). With R₀ 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Our simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases, varying the proportion of cases treated, average duration of the infectious period, and the reproductive rate. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective, R₀ 2.5). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study suggests that finding ways to reduce the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 could help decrease its spread and impact.

How Efficacious Must a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine be to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic by Itself

BACKGROUND

Given the continuing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing due to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing.

METHODS

In 2020, we developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.

RESULTS

Simulation experiments revealed that when vaccine efficacy exceeded 70%, coverage exceeded 60%, and vaccination occurred on day 1, the attack rate dropped to 22% with daily cases not exceeding 3.2 million (reproductive rate, R0, 2.5). When R0 was 3.5, the attack rate dropped to 41% with daily cases not exceeding 14.4 million. Increasing coverage to 75% when vaccination occurred by day 90 resulted in 5% attack rate and daily cases not exceeding 258,029when R0 was 2.5 and a 26% attack rate and maximum daily cases of 22.6 million when R0 was 3.5. When vaccination did not occur until day 180, coverage (i.e., those vaccinated plus those otherwise immune) had to reach 100%. A vaccine with an efficacy between 40% and 70% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.

CONCLUSION

Our study found that to either prevent or largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing), the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70%.

Pneumococcal Disease: A Systematic Review of Health Utilities, Resource Use, Costs, and Economic Evaluations of Interventions

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal diseases cause substantial mortality, morbidity, and economic burden. Evidence on data inputs for economic evaluations of interventions targeting pneumococcal disease is critical.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize evidence on resource use, costs, health utilities, and cost-effectiveness for pneumococcal disease and associated interventions to inform future economic analyses.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EconLit, and Cochrane databases for peer-reviewed studies in English on pneumococcal disease that reported health utilities using direct or indirect valuation methods, resource use, costs, or cost-effectiveness of intervention programs, and summarized the evidence descriptively.

RESULTS

We included 383 studies: 9 reporting health utilities, 131 resource use, 160 economic costs of pneumococcal disease, 95 both resource use and costs, and 178 economic evaluations of pneumococcal intervention programs. Health state utility values ranged from 0 to 1 for both meningitis and otitis media and from 0.3 to 0.7 for both pneumonia and sepsis. Hospitalization was shortest for otitis media (range: 0.1-5 days) and longest for sepsis/septicemia (6-48). The main categories of costs reported were drugs, hospitalization, and household or employer costs. Resource use was reported in hospital length of stay and number of contacts with general practitioners. Costs and resource use significantly varied among population ages, disease conditions, and settings. Current vaccination programs for both adults and children, antibiotic use and outreach programs to promote vaccination, early disease detection, and educational programs are cost-effective in most countries.

CONCLUSION

This study has generated a comprehensive repository of health economic evidence on pneumococcal disease that can be used to inform future economic evaluations of pneumococcal disease intervention programs.

Cost-effectiveness of adult vaccinations: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Coverage levels for many recommended adult vaccinations are low. The cost-effectiveness research literature on adult vaccinations has not been synthesized in recent years, which may contribute to low awareness of the value of adult vaccinations and to their under-utilization. We assessed research literature since 1980 to summarize economic evidence for adult vaccinations included on the adult immunization schedule.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, EconLit, and Cochrane Library from 1980 to 2016 and identified economic evaluation or cost-effectiveness analysis for vaccinations targeting persons aged ≥18 years in the U.S. or Canada. After excluding records based on title and abstract reviews, the remaining publications had a full-text review from two independent reviewers, who extracted economic values that compared vaccination to "no vaccination" scenarios.

RESULTS

The systematic searches yielded 1688 publications. After removing duplicates, off-topic publications, and publications without a "no vaccination" comparison, 78 publications were included in the final analysis (influenza = 25, pneumococcal = 18, human papillomavirus = 9, herpes zoster = 7, tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis = 9, hepatitis B = 9, and multiple vaccines = 1). Among outcomes assessing age-based vaccinations, the percent indicating cost-savings was 56% for influenza, 31% for pneumococcal, and 23% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. Among age-based vaccination outcomes reporting $/QALY, the percent of outcomes indicating a cost per QALY of ≤$100,000 was 100% for influenza, 100% for pneumococcal, 69% for human papillomavirus, 71% for herpes zoster, and 50% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of published studies report favorable cost-effectiveness profiles for adult vaccinations, which supports efforts to improve the implementation of adult vaccination recommendations.

Epidemiologic and economic impact of pharmacies as vaccination locations during an influenza epidemic

Introduction:

During an influenza epidemic, where early vaccination is crucial, pharmacies may be a resource to increase vaccine distribution reach and capacity.

Methods:

We utilized an agent-based model of the US and a clinical and economics outcomes model to simulate the impact of different influenza epidemics and the impact of utilizing pharmacies in addition to traditional (hospitals, clinic/physician offices, and urgent care centers) locations for vaccination for the year 2017.

Results:

For an epidemic with a reproductive rate (R0) of 1.30, adding pharmacies with typical business hours averted 11.9 million symptomatic influenza cases, 23,577 to 94,307 deaths, $1.0 billion in direct (vaccine administration and healthcare) costs, $4.2–44.4 billion in productivity losses, and $5.2–45.3 billion in overall costs (varying with mortality rate). Increasing the epidemic severity (R0 of 1.63), averted 16.0 million symptomatic influenza cases, 35,407 to 141,625 deaths, $1.9 billion in direct costs, $6.0–65.5 billion in productivity losses, and $7.8–67.3 billion in overall costs (varying with mortality rate). Extending pharmacy hours averted up to 16.5 million symptomatic influenza cases, 145,278 deaths, $1.9 billion direct costs, $4.1 billion in productivity loss, and $69.5 billion in overall costs. Adding pharmacies resulted in a cost-benefit of $4.1 to $11.5 billion, varying epidemic severity, mortality rate, pharmacy hours, location vaccination rate, and delay in the availability of the vaccine.

Conclusions:

Administering vaccines through pharmacies in addition to traditional locations in the event of an epidemic can increase vaccination coverage, mitigating up to 23.7 million symptomatic influenza cases, providing cost-savings up to $2.8 billion to third-party payers and $99.8 billion to society. Pharmacies should be considered as points of dispensing epidemic vaccines in addition to traditional settings as soon as vaccines become available.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pneumococcal and Influenza Vaccines Administered to Children Less Than 5 Years of Age in a Low-Income District of Bogota, Colombia

BACKGROUND

The Colombian health authorities introduced the pneumococcal conjugated vaccine and the seasonal influenza vaccine into the national immunization schedule for children in 2009 and 2007, respectively. Despite this, the health authorities continue to be concerned about the high economic and disease burden among children from low-income households caused by these vaccine-preventable diseases.

OBJECTIVES

1) To evaluate the potential health outcomes of four vaccination strategies for subsidized children younger than 5 years in a low-income district in Colombia from a public, direct medical health care perspective. 2) To perform univariate, multivariate, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of these results.

METHODS

We built a Markov deterministic cohort model to evaluate five consecutive cohorts across four alternative situations: 1) no vaccination; 2) vaccination with the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10 vaccine); 3) vaccination with the trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) annually; and 4) combined vaccination with PCV10 vaccine and TIV.

RESULTS

The introduction of PCV10 vaccine and TIV and their combined use in particular would be highly cost-effective in comparison to no vaccination. For the combined vaccination with PCV10 vaccine and TIV, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio would be $1,280 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, the total incremental cost of the vaccination program would be $776,800, and it would avert four deaths and 332 DALYs for the five cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of PCV10 vaccine and TIV would be highly cost-effective from a public, direct medical health care perspective. Despite these results, we have not observed decreases in severity or hospitalizations. Our findings highlight the need for further studies of the immunization campaign indicators and socioeconomic indicators for this low-income community.

Inclusion of the value of herd immunity in economic evaluations of vaccines. A systematic review of methods used

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this review were to identify vaccine economic evaluations that include herd immunity and describe the methodological approaches used.

METHODS

We used Kim and Goldie's search strategy from a systematic review (1976-2007) of modelling approaches used in vaccine economic evaluations and additionally searched PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase for 2007-2015. Studies were classified according to modelling approach used. Methods for estimating herd immunity effects were described, in particular for the static models.

RESULTS

We identified 625 economic evaluations of vaccines against human-transmissible diseases from 1976 to 2015. Of these, 172 (28%) included herd immunity. While 4% of studies included herd immunity in 2001, 53% of those published in 2015 did this. Pneumococcal, human papilloma and rotavirus vaccines represented the majority of studies (63%) considering herd immunity. Ninety-five of the 172 studies utilised a static model, 59 applied a dynamic model, eight a hybrid model and ten did not clearly state which method was used. Relatively crude methods and assumptions were used in the majority of the static model studies.

CONCLUSION

The proportion of economic evaluations using a dynamic model has increased in recent years. However, 55% of the included studies used a static model for estimating herd immunity. Values from a static model can only be considered reliable if high quality surveillance data are incorporated into the analysis. Without this, the results are questionable and they should only be included in sensitivity analysis.

The full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination: A systematic review

Background

Pneumococcal disease causes substantial morbidity and mortality, including among adults. Adult pneumococcal vaccines help to prevent these burdens, but they are underused. Accounting for the full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination may promote more rational resource allocation decisions with respect to adult pneumococcal vaccines.

Objectives

Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a systematic review to assess the extent to which the literature has empirically captured (e.g., through measurement or modeling) the full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination.

Methods

We systematically searched PubMed and Embase to identify studies published between January 1, 2010 and April 10, 2016 that examine adult pneumococcal vaccination. We included articles if they captured any health or economic benefit of an adult pneumococcal vaccine administered to adults age ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 in risk groups. Finally, we summarized the literature by categorizing the types of benefits captured, the perspective taken, and the strength of the evidence presented. Our protocol is number 42016038335 in the PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews.

Results

We identified 5,857 papers and included 150 studies for analysis. While most capture health gains and healthcare cost savings, far fewer studies consider additional benefit categories, such as productivity gains. However, the studies with a broader approach still exhibit significant limitations; for example, many present only abstracts, while others offer no new measurements. Studies that examine the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine focus more on broad economic benefits, but still have limitations.

Conclusions

This review highlights the need for more robust empirical accounting of the full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination. Literature outside this realm indicates that these broad benefits may be substantial. Failing to investigate the full benefits may lead society to undervalue vaccines' contributions and therefore underinvest in their development and adoption.

Variation in loss of immunity shapes influenza epidemics and the impact of vaccination

BACKGROUND

Protective antibody immunity against the influenza A virus wanes in 2-7 years due to antigenic drift of the virus' surface proteins. The duration of immune protection is highly variable because antigenic evolution of the virus is irregular. Currently, the variable nature of the duration of immunity has had little attention in analyses of the impact of vaccination, including cost-effectiveness studies.

METHODS

We developed a range of mathematical transmission models to investigate the effect of variable duration of immunity on the size of seasonal epidemics. The models range from simple conceptual to more realistic, by distinguishing between infection- versus vaccination-induced immunity, by inclusion of primary vaccine failure, by assuming a leaky vaccine, and by the inclusion of age-dependent contact patterns.

RESULTS

We show that annual variation in the duration of immunity causes large variation in the size of epidemics, and affects the effectiveness of vaccination. Accumulation of susceptible individuals in one or more mild seasons results in a disproportionately large outbreak in a subsequent season. Importantly, variation in the duration of immunity increases the average infection attack rate when the vaccination coverage is around the outbreak threshold. Specifically, in a tailored age-stratified model with a realistic reproduction number (R ₀ = 1.4) and vaccination coverage of 25%, we find that the attack rate in unvaccinated children (<10 years old) is negligible if the duration of immunity is constant, while on average 2.8% (2.5-97.5% percentiles: 1.8-4.1%) of the children are infected if the duration of immunity is variable. These findings stem from the buildup of susceptibility over multiple seasons by waning of immunity, and the nonlinear relation between susceptibility and infection attack rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The models illustrate that variation in the duration of immunity impacts the long-term effectiveness of vaccination, and that vaccine effectiveness cannot be judged for each year in isolation. Our findings have implications for vaccination strategies that aim to maximize the vaccination coverage while extending the age range of persons eligible for vaccination.

Extending the elderly- and risk-group programme of vaccination against seasonal influenza in England and Wales: a cost-effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

The present study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extending the pre-2013 influenza immunisation programme for high-risk and elderly individuals to those at low risk of developing complications following infection with seasonal influenza.

METHODS

We performed an economic evaluation comparing different extensions of the pre-2013 influenza programme to seven possible age groups of low-risk individuals (aged 2-4 years, 50-64 years, 5-16 years, 2-4 and 50-64 years, 2-16 years, 2-16 and 50-64 years, and 2-64 years). These extensions are evaluated incrementally on four base scenarios (no vaccination, risk group only with coverage as observed between 1995 and 2009, risk group and 65+, and risk group with 75% coverage and 65+). Impact of vaccination is assessed using a transmission model built and parameterised from a previously published study. The study population is all individuals of all ages in England and Wales representing an average total of 52.6 million people over 14 influenza seasons (1995-2009).

RESULTS

The influenza programme (risk group and elderly) prior to 2013 is likely to be cost effective (incremental cost effectiveness ratio: 7,475 £/QALY, net benefit: 253 M£ [15-829]). Extension to any one of the low-risk target groups defined earlier is likely to be cost-effective. However, strategies that do not include vaccination of school-aged children are less likely to be cost-effective. The most efficient strategy is extension to the 5-16 year age group while universal vaccination (extension to all low-risk individuals over 2 years) will achieve the highest net benefit. While extension to the 2-16 year age group is likely to be very cost effective, the cost-effectiveness of extensions beyond 2-16 years is very uncertain. Extension to the 5-16 year age group would likely remain cost-effective even without herd immunity effects to other age groups. As our study includes a strong historical component, our results depend on the efficacy of the influenza vaccine remaining at levels similar to the ones achieved in the past over a long-period of time (assumed to vary between 28% and 70% depending of the circulating strains and age groups).

CONCLUSIONS

Making use of surveillance data from over a decade in conjunction with a dynamic model, we find that vaccination of children in the United Kingdom is likely to be highly cost-effective, not only for their own benefit but also to reduce the disease burden in the rest of the community.

An economic model assessing the value of microneedle patch delivery of the seasonal influenza vaccine

BACKGROUND

New vaccine technologies may improve the acceptability, delivery (potentially enabling self-administration), and product efficacy of influenza vaccines. One such technology is the microneedle patch (MNP), a skin delivery technology currently in development. Although MNPs hold promise in preclinical studies, their potential economic and epidemiologic impacts have not yet been evaluated.

METHODS

We utilized a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model linked to an economic influenza outcomes model to assess the economic value of introducing the MNP into the current influenza vaccine market in the United States from the third-party payer and societal perspectives. We also explored the impact of different vaccination settings, self-administration, the MNP price, vaccine efficacy, compliance, and MNP market share. Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), cases, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; cost/QALY).

RESULTS

With healthcare provider administration, MNP introduction would be cost-effective (ICERs ≤$23,347/QALY) at all MNP price points ($9.50-$30) and market shares (10-60%) assessed, except when compliance and efficacy were assumed to be the same as existing vaccines and the MNP occupied a 10% market share. If MNP self-administration were available (assuming the same efficacy as current technologies), MNP compliance or its efficacy would need to increase by ≥3% in order to be cost-effective (ICERs ≤$1401/QALY), assuming a 2% reduction in administration success with unsupervised self-administration. Under these conditions, MNP introduction would be cost-effective for all price points and market shares assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

When healthcare providers administered the MNP, its introduction would be cost-effective or dominant (i.e., less costly and more effective) in the majority of scenarios assessed. If self-administration were available, MNP introduction would be cost-effective if it increased compliance enough to overcome any decrease in self-administration success or if the MNP presentation afforded an increase in efficacy over current delivery methods for influenza vaccines.

Quantifying the economic value and quality of life impact of earlier influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced?

METHODS

We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6.

RESULTS

Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2-1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634-17,794 influenza cases, $0.6-$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1-$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35-64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2-1.6) averted 11,366-1660 influenza cases, $0.6-$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3-$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42-8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits.

CONCLUSION

Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings.

Cost-effectiveness of vaccinating the elderly and at-risk adults with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the UK

OBJECTIVE

The introduction of routine childhood vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has led to a decrease in the overall incidence of pneumococcal disease in all ages and a change in the serotype distribution of the remaining disease. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating ≥65 years and at risk adults with either the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) or the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in the UK, accounting for epidemiological changes.

METHODS

A population-based Markov model was used to track one UK-based cohort of individuals assuming PPV23, PCV13 or no vaccination until death.

RESULTS

The ICER was estimated at £8413 when PPV23 was compared to no vaccination. PPV23 dominated PCV13.

CONCLUSION

This model suggests that vaccinating with PPV23 is cost-effective when compared to both PCV13 and no vaccination. As PPV23 covers 80-90% in the UK of all serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal diseases, it remains cost-effective despite recent reductions in invasive pneumococcal diseases incidence in adults.

A public health and budget impact analysis of vaccinating the elderly and at-risk adults with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the UK

OBJECTIVE

Since the introduction of the routine childhood immunization, a change in epidemiology of pneumococcal disease has been seen in both children and adults. This study aimed to quantify the public health and budget impact of pneumococcal vaccination of the elderly and those in at risk groups in the UK.

METHODS

The model was adapted from a previous population-based Markov model. At-risk adults and the elderly were assumed to receive PPV23 or PCV13 vaccination or no vaccination.

RESULTS

Over the study period (2012-2016), PPV23 vaccination led to a reduction in the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases in most scenarios. The net budget impact ranged between £15 and £39 million (vs no vaccination) or between -£116 and -£93 million (vs PCV13).

CONCLUSION

PPV23 vaccination program remains the optimal strategy from public health and budgetary perspectives despite epidemiological changes. PCV13 is likely to impose a significant budget with limited health benefits.

Cost-effectiveness of programs to eliminate disparities in elderly vaccination rates in the United States

BACKGROUND

There are disparities in influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rates among elderly minority groups and little guidance as to which intervention or combination of interventions to eliminate these disparities is likely to be most cost-effective. Here, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four hypothetical vaccination programs designed to eliminate disparities in elderly vaccination rates and differing in the number of interventions.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model in which we assumed a healthcare system perspective, 10-year vaccination program and lifetime time horizon. The cohort was the combined African-American and Hispanic 65 year-old birth cohort in the United States in 2009. We evaluated five different vaccination strategies: no vaccination program and four vaccination programs that varied from "low intensity" to "very high intensity" based on the number of interventions deployed in each program, their cumulative cost and their cumulative impact on elderly minority influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rates.

RESULTS

The very high intensity vaccination program ($24,479/quality-adjusted life year; QALY) was preferred at willingness-to-pay-thresholds of $50,000 and $100,000/QALY and prevented 37,178 influenza cases, 342 influenza deaths, 1,158 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases and 174 IPD deaths over the birth cohort's lifetime. In one-way sensitivity analyses, the very high intensity program only became cost-prohibitive (>$100,000/QALY) at less likely values for the influenza vaccination rates achieved in year 10 of the high intensity (>73.5%) or very high intensity (<76.8%) vaccination programs.

CONCLUSIONS

A practice-based vaccination program designed to eliminate disparities in elderly minority vaccination rates and including four interventions would be cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of a program to eliminate disparities in pneumococcal vaccination rates in elderly minority populations: an exploratory analysis

OBJECTIVE

Invasive pneumococcal disease is a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, particularly among the elderly (>65 years). There are large racial disparities in pneumococcal vaccination rates in this population. Here, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical national vaccination intervention program designed to eliminate racial disparities in pneumococcal vaccination in the elderly.

METHODS

In an exploratory analysis, a Markov decision-analysis model was developed, taking a societal perspective and assuming a 1-year cycle length, 10-year vaccination program duration, and lifetime time horizon. In the base-case analysis, it was conservatively assumed that vaccination program promotion costs were $10 per targeted minority elder per year, regardless of prior vaccination status and resulted in the elderly African American and Hispanic pneumococcal vaccination rate matching the elderly Caucasian vaccination rate (65%) in year 10 of the program.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program relative to no program was $45,161 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in the base-case analysis. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the likelihood of the vaccination program being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000 and $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained was 64% and 100%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In a conservative analysis biased against the vaccination program, a national vaccination intervention program to ameliorate racial disparities in pneumococcal vaccination would be cost-effective.

Regional epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in Asian adults: epidemiology, disease burden, serotype distribution, and antimicrobial resistance patterns and prevention

OBJECTIVES

To summarize published data on the clinical and economic burden, epidemiology, antimicrobial resistance levels, serotype prevalence, and prevention strategies for pneumococcal disease among adults in Asia.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of the PubMed database for relevant, peer-reviewed articles published between January 1995 and December 2011, covering China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

RESULTS

Taiwan and Thailand had the most comprehensive epidemiological data on adult pneumococcal disease. Very little relevant data were found for Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam; surveillance is urgently needed in these countries. The emergence and spread of resistance emphasize the importance of vaccination to prevent infection in adults at increased risk for serious pneumococcal disease. Vaccination policies and opinions on the efficacy of vaccination vary widely in Asian countries, although a new option in the form of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine is now available.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased awareness of the public health and economic benefits of pneumococcal vaccination is critically needed to help both the public and policymakers in making changes to vaccination policies in the region. Maximizing access to pneumococcal vaccines will decrease the number of hospitalizations, complications, and deaths associated with pneumococcal disease.

Cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal and influenza vaccination standing order programs

OBJECTIVES

Despite the benefits of vaccination and guidelines for their use, the rates for influenza and pneumococcal vaccination remain below the 90% goal set by Healthy People 2010 for persons 65 years and older. Standing order programs (SOPs) authorize vaccination administration without physician orders. Here we examine the cost-effectiveness of SOPs to improve both pneumococcal and influenza vaccination rates in outpatient settings for individuals 65 years and older.

STUDY DESIGN

Decision analysis-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of outpatient SOPs for pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV) and influenza vaccination in hypothetical US population cohorts 65 years and older. Vaccination rate improvement data were obtained from the medical literature. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Active Bacterial Core surveillance data and US national databases were used to estimate costs and outcomes.

RESULTS

SOPs cost $14,171 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared with no program from a third-party payer perspective. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, the SOP strategy cost less than $50,000/QALY if SOPs increased absolute vaccination rates by 4% or more (base case: 18%), annual SOP costs were less than $21 per person (base case: $4.60), or annual influenza incidence was 4% or more (base case: 10%). Model results were insensitive to other individual parameter variations, and were supported by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

SOPs used to improve PPSV and influenza vaccination rates in outpatient settings is a promising and economically favorable investment, with cost-effectiveness analysis results remaining robust to parameter variation over clinically plausible ranges.

Cost-effectiveness of polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccination in people aged 65 and above in Poland

INTRODUCTION

Invasive pneumococcal disease is associated with substantial morbidity, mortality and cost implications, which could be reduced by vaccination.

AIM

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine in the elderly (65 and older) in Poland.

METHODS

A Markov model with a 1-year cycle length was developed, allowing up to 10 cohorts to enter the model over the lifetime horizon (35 years). In the base case, costs and benefits were assessed using the public health care payer (NFZ) perspective. The analysis included routine vaccination of all elderly and high-risk (HR) elderly versus no vaccination. The analysis assumed that the government would reimburse 50% of the vaccine price. Costs and benefits were discounted 5%, with costs expressed in 2009 Polish Zloty (PLN). Extensive sensitivity analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

PPV23 vaccination targeting all elderly and HR elderly in Poland would avoid 8,935 pneumococcal infections, 2,542 hospitalisations, 671 deaths and 5,886 infections, 1,673 hospitalisations and 441 deaths respectively. The incremental cost per QALY gained would be PLN 3,382 in all elderly and PLN2,148 in HR elderly.

CONCLUSION

Vaccinating adults 65 and older regardless of risk status with a 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine, is cost-effective, resulting in clinical and economic benefits including a non-negligible reduction of ambulatory doctor visits, hospitalizations and, deaths in Poland.

Cost-effectiveness of vaccinating adults with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in Germany

The introduction of routine infant vaccination against pneumococcal disease has resulted in a decreased overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in adults but also a change in invasive pneumococcal disease serotypes. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in Germany in this context. A population-based Markov model was developed. A cohort of adults currently eligible for vaccination was followed until death. Adult vaccination with PPV23 was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €17,065/quality-adjusted life years gained from the third-party payer's perspective. Univariate sensitivity analyses showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was below €50,000/quality-adjusted life years gained in most test scenarios. The model suggests that adult PPV23 vaccination is cost effective in Germany, due to its broad serotype coverage. This is despite epidemiological changes in Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes caused by wider use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines during childhood.

A public health and budget impact analysis of vaccinating at-risk adults and the elderly against pneumococcal diseases in Germany

To assess the comparative public health and budget impact over 5 years of several pneumococcal vaccination strategies (23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine [PPV23] and/or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV13]) in Germany, within the context of changing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence over time. A multi-cohort, population-based Markov model was developed. Uncertainty around vaccine effectiveness, costs and IPD incidence change was handled through scenario analyses. Between 2012 and 2016, the introduction of PCV13 in adults, compared with the use of PPV23, would be associated with a net estimated budget increase of €59.7 million (+6.7%) to €151.6 million (+13.7%). Impact on IPD incidence ranged from -113 cases (-0.8%) to +298 cases (+2.8%). Introducing PCV13 in adults is expected to significantly affect healthcare budgets. Adult vaccination with PPV23 remains the optimal vaccination strategy from public health and budget perspectives.

Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination for adults: new perspectives for Europe

Vaccination is the only public-health measure likely to reduce the burden of pneumococcal diseases. In 2010, a group of European experts reviewed evidence on the burden of pneumococcal disease and the immunogenicity, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23). They also considered issues affecting the future use of PPV23 and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in the elderly and adults at high risk of pneumococcal disease. PPV23 covers 80-90% of the serotypes responsible for invasive pneumococcal disease in Europe. Primary vaccination and revaccination with PPV23 are well tolerated, induce robust, long-lasting immune responses in elderly adults and are cost effective. Ensuring protection against pneumococcal disease requires monitoring of the changing epidemiology of pneumococcal serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease and improving vaccine coverage. In the future, it will be critically important for pneumococcal vaccination recommendations for elderly adults to be based on comparative evaluations of PPV23 and newer pneumococcal conjugate vaccines with regard to their long-term immunogenicity, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Patterns and determinants of influenza and pneumococcal immunisation among adults with chronic disease living in Queensland, Australia

Using findings from a random, computer assisted telephone survey of households, this paper examines influenza and pneumococcal immunisation coverage and predictors of immunisation in 2203 adults with asthma, diabetes or a cardiovascular condition living in Queensland, Australia. 47% and 31% of high-risk persons were immunised against influenza and pneumococcus respectively. Immunisation coverage varied across chronic conditions and increased with age, being significantly higher for those aged 65 years and older and consequently eligible for free vaccination. Poor self reported health status was an independent predictor of pneumococcal vaccination status for people with asthma, diabetes or a cardiovascular condition; however it was only an independent predictor of influenza immunisation status for people with diabetes. Extending free vaccination to all people at risk may increase immunisation rates for younger people with a chronic condition.