Cost-effectiveness of potential infant vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus infection in The Netherlands

Impact of including productivity costs in economic analyses of vaccines for C. difficile infections and infant respiratory syncytial virus, in a UK setting

OBJECTIVES

It has been estimated that vaccines can accrue a relatively large part of their value from patient and carer productivity. Yet, productivity value is not commonly or consistently considered in health economic evaluations of vaccines in several high-income countries. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential impact of including productivity value on the expected cost-effectiveness of vaccination, we illustrate the extent to which the incremental costs would change with and without productivity value incorporated.

METHODS

For two vaccines currently under development, one against Cloistridioides difficile (C. difficile) infection and one against respiratory syncytial disease (RSV), we estimated their incremental costs with and without productivity value included and compared the results.

RESULTS

In this analysis, reflecting a UK context, a C. difficile vaccination programme would prevent £12.3 in productivity costs for every person vaccinated. An RSV vaccination programme would prevent £49 in productivity costs for every vaccinated person.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering productivity costs in future cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccines for C. difficile and RSV will contribute to better-informed reimbursement decisions from a societal perspective.

Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

RSV Burden and Its Impact on Pediatric Inpatient Bed Occupancy in Belgium: An Analysis of National Hospital Claims Data

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections represent a substantial burden on pediatric services during winter. While the morbidity and financial burden of RSV are well studied, less is known about the organizational impact on hospital services (ie, impact on bed capacity and overcrowding and variation across hospitals).

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of the population-wide Belgian Hospital Discharge Data Set for the years 2017 and 2018 (including all hospital sites with pediatric inpatient services), covering all RSV-associated (RSV-related International Classification of Diseases, 10th Version, Clinical Modification diagnoses) inpatient hospitalization by children under 5 years old as well as all-cause acute hospitalizations in pediatric wards.

RESULTS

RSV hospitalizations amount to 68.3 hospitalizations per 1000 children less than 1 year and 5.0 per 1000 children 1-4 years of age and are responsible for 20%-40% of occupied beds during the peak period (November-December). The mean bed occupancy rate over the entire year (2018) varies across hospitals from 22.8% to 85.1% and from 30.4% to 95.1% during the peak period. Small-scale pediatric services (<25 beds) are more vulnerable to the volatility of occupancy rates. Forty-six hospital sites have daily occupancy rates above 100% (median of 9 days). Only in 1 of 23 geographically defined hospital networks these high occupancy rates are on the same calendar days.

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric services tend to be over-dimensioned to deal with peak activity mainly attributable to RSV. RSV immunization can substantially reduce pediatric capacity requirements. Enhanced collaboration in regional networks is an alternative strategy to deal with peaks and reduce capacity needs.

Cost-Effectiveness of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Preventive Interventions in Children: A Model Comparison Study

OBJECTIVES

Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses on maternal vaccine (MV) and monoclonal antibody (mAb) interventions against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) use context-specific data and produce varied results. Through model comparison, we aim to characterize RSV cost-effectiveness models and examine drivers for their outputs.

METHODS

We compared 3 static and 2 dynamic models using a common input parameter set for a hypothetical birth cohort of 100 000 infants. Year-round and seasonal programs were evaluated for MV and mAb interventions, using available evidence during the study period (eg, phase III MV and phase IIb mAb efficacy).

RESULTS

Three static models estimated comparable medically attended (MA) cases averted versus no intervention (MV, 1019-1073; mAb, 5075-5487), with the year-round MV directly saving ∼€1 million medical and €0.3 million nonmedical costs, while gaining 4 to 5 discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) annually in <1-year-olds, and mAb resulting in €4 million medical and €1.5 million nonmedical cost savings, and 21 to 25 discounted QALYs gained. In contrast, both dynamic models estimated fewer MA cases averted (MV, 402-752; mAb, 3362-4622); one showed an age shift of RSV cases, whereas the other one reported many non-MA symptomatic cases averted, especially by MV (2014). These differences can be explained by model types, assumptions on non-MA burden, and interventions' effectiveness over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Our static and dynamic models produced overall similar hospitalization and death estimates, but also important differences, especially in non-MA cases averted. Despite the small QALY decrement per non-MA case, their larger number makes them influential for the costs per QALY gained of RSV interventions.

Economic burden and health-related quality-of-life among infants with respiratory syncytial virus infection: A multi-country prospective cohort study in Europe

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a considerable disease burden in young children globally, but reliable estimates of RSV-related costs and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) are scarce. This study aimed to evaluate the RSV-associated costs and HRQoL effects in infants and their caregivers in four European countries.

METHODS

Healthy term-born infants were recruited at birth and actively followed up in four European countries. Symptomatic infants were systematically tested for RSV. Caregivers recorded the daily HRQoL of their child and themselves, measured by a modified EQ-5D with Visual Analogue Scale, for 14 consecutive days or until symptoms resolved. At the end of each RSV episode, caregivers reported healthcare resource use and work absenteeism. Direct medical costs per RSV episode were estimated from a healthcare payer's perspective and indirect costs were estimated from a societal perspective. Means and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of direct medical costs, total costs (direct costs + productivity loss) and quality-adjusted life-day (QALD) loss per RSV episode were estimated per RSV episode, as well as per subgroup (medical attendance, country).

RESULTS

Our cohort of 1041 infants experienced 265 RSV episodes with a mean symptom duration of 12.5 days. The mean (95% CI) cost per RSV episode was €399.5 (242.3, 584.2) and €494.3 (317.7, 696.1) from the healthcare payer's and societal perspective, respectively. The mean QALD loss per RSV episode of 1.9 (1.7, 2.1) was independent of medical attendance (in contrast to costs, which also differed by country). Caregiver and infant HRQoL evolved similarly.

CONCLUSION

This study fills essential gaps for future economic evaluations by prospectively estimating direct and indirect costs and HRQoL effects on healthy term infants and caregivers separately, for both medically attended (MA) and non-MA laboratory-confirmed RSV episodes. We generally observed greater HRQoL losses than in previous studies which used non-community and/or non-prospective designs.

Analysing the protection from respiratory tract infections and allergic diseases early in life by human milk components: the PRIMA birth cohort

Background

Many studies support the protective effect of breastfeeding on respiratory tract infections. Although infant formulas have been developed to provide adequate nutritional solutions, many components in human milk contributing to the protection of newborns and aiding immune development still need to be identified. In this paper we present the methodology of the “Protecting against Respiratory tract lnfections through human Milk Analysis” (PRIMA) cohort, which is an observational, prospective and multi-centre birth cohort aiming to identify novel functions of components in human milk that are protective against respiratory tract infections and allergic diseases early in life.

Methods

For the PRIMA human milk cohort we aim to recruit 1000 mother–child pairs in the first month postpartum. At one week, one, three, and six months after birth, fresh human milk samples will be collected and processed. In order to identify protective components, the level of pathogen specific antibodies, T cell composition, Human milk oligosaccharides, as well as extracellular vesicles (EVs) will be analysed, in the milk samples in relation to clinical data which are collected using two-weekly parental questionnaires. The primary outcome of this study is the number of parent-reported medically attended respiratory infections. Secondary outcomes that will be measured are physician diagnosed (respiratory) infections and allergies during the first year of life.

Discussion

The PRIMA human milk cohort will be a large prospective healthy birth cohort in which we will use an integrated, multidisciplinary approach to identify the longitudinal effect human milk components that play a role in preventing (respiratory) infections and allergies during the first year of life. Ultimately, we believe that this study will provide novel insights into immunomodulatory components in human milk. This may allow for optimizing formula feeding for all non-breastfed infants.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07107-w.

The cost-utility of early use of high-flow nasal cannula in bronchiolitis

BACKGROUND

High-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) oxygen is a non-invasive ventilation system that was introduced as an alternative to CPAP (continuous positive airway pressure), with a marked increase in its use in pediatric care settings. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of early use of HFNC compared to oxygen by nasal cannula in an infant with bronchiolitis in the emergency setting.

METHODS

A decision tree model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HFNC compared with oxygen by nasal cannula (control strategy) in an infant with bronchiolitis in the emergency setting. Cost data were obtained from a retrospective study on bronchiolitis from tertiary centers in Rionegro, Colombia, while utilities were collected from the literature.

RESULTS

The QALYs per patient calculated in the base-case model were 0.9141 (95% CI 0.913-0.915) in the HFNC and 0.9105 (95% CI 0.910-0.911) in control group. The cost per patient was US$368 (95% CI US$ 323-411) in HFNC and US$441 (95% CI US$ 384-498) per patient in the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

HFNC was cost-effective HFNC compared to oxygen by nasal cannula in an infant with bronchiolitis in the emergency setting. The use of this technology in emergency settings will allow a more efficient use of resources, especially in low-resource countries with high prevalence of bronchiolitis .

Health care costs of hospitalization of young children for respiratory syncytial virus infections: a population-based matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection poses a substantial clinical burden among infants and young children. We sought to determine the health care costs of hospitalizations attributable to RSV in Ontario, Canada, from the health care payer perspective.

METHODS

For this population-based matched cohort study, we identified children younger than 24 months who were or were not hospitalized with RSV infections in 2006-2016. We performed a cost-of-illness analysis using linked administrative health data, with subjects stratified by gestational age and congenital heart disease, and propensity score-matched on established risk factors. The primary outcome was attributable health care costs per patient, reflecting the difference in direct medical costs between the groups, calculated to 12 months postdischarge in 2020 Canadian dollars.

RESULTS

We identified 14 608 RSV-infected children, matched to 72 040 controls. The adjusted attributable cost of hospitalized RSV was $134 931 900 over 10 years, or $9240 per patient (95% confidence interval [CI] $8790-$9690). Health care costs escalated 3 days before hospitalization, and persisted up to 12 months after discharge. Increased costs were associated with major comorbidities, but not extreme premature birth. The highest mean attributable cost per patient was in the presence of hemodynamically significant heart disease ($60 110, 95% CI $26 700-$93 060). Infants born at 36-43 weeks' gestation constituted the greatest overall cost burden at $117 886 720.

INTERPRETATION

Although the greatest direct medical costs per patient hospitalized with RSV infection are among children with cardiac disease, the greatest overall cost burden is from children born at or near term, who are not targeted by current prophylaxis strategies. The substantial attributable health care costs of RSV can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of novel RSV vaccines and prioritization of health care resources.

The impact of childhood RSV infection on children's and parents' quality of life: a prospective multicenter study in Spain

Background

 Several immunisation candidates against RSV are in late-stage clinical trials. To evaluate the benefits of a potential vaccination programme, both economic and health benefits will be needed. Health benefits are usually measured in Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) loss using standardised questionnaires. However, there are no RSV-specific questionnaires validated for children under 2 years, in whom most RSV episodes occur. Therefore, HRQoL estimates are taken from literature or inadequate tools. We determined HRQoL loss and direct costs due to an RSV episode in children younger than 2 years and their caregivers during a month of follow up, using a new questionnaire administered online.

Methods

 An observational prospective multicentre surveillance study was conducted in children aged younger than two years. Children were recruited from 8 primary care centres and 1 hospital in the Valencia region and Catalonia (Spain). RSV-positive cases were obtained by immunochromatographic test. HRQoL was assessed using a new ad-hoc 38 item-questionnaire developed. Parents of infected children completed 4 questionnaires at four timepoints (day 0, 7, 14 and 30) after diagnosis.

Results

 117 children were enrolled in the study and 86 (73.5%) were RSV + . Median (interquartile range; IQR) scores were 0.52 (0.42–0.68), 0.65 (0.49–0.79), 0.82 (0.68–0.97) and 0.94 (0.81–1), for days 0, 7, 14 and 30, respectively. Compared to total recovery (Q30), HRQoL loss was 37.5%, 31.5% and 8.9% on days 0, 7 and 14 since diagnosis of the disease. The total median cost per patient (including treatments) was €598.8 (IQR: 359.63–2425.85).

Conclusions

 RSV had almost 40% impact on HRQoL during the first week since onset of symptoms and the median cost per episode and patient was about €600. These results represent a substantial input for health-economic evaluations of future RSV-related interventions such as vaccination.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06629-z.

Evaluation of a standardised protocol to measure the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus infection in young children in primary care

Background

A better understanding of the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in primary care is needed for policymakers to make informed decisions regarding new preventive measures and treatments. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a protocol for the standardised measurement of the disease burden of RSV infection in primary care in children aged < 5 years.

Methods

The standardised protocol was evaluated in Italy and the Netherlands during the 2019/20 winter. Children aged < 5 years who consulted their primary care physician, met the WHO acute respiratory infections (ARI) case definition, and had a laboratory confirmed positive test for RSV (RT-PCR) were included. RSV symptoms were collected at the time of swabbing. Health care use, duration of symptoms and socio-economic impact was measured 14 days after swabbing. Health related Quality of life (HRQoL) was measured using the parent-proxy report of the PedsQL™4.0 generic core scales (2–4 years) and PedsQL™4.0 infant scales (0–2 years) 30 days after swabbing. The standardised protocol was evaluated in terms of the feasibility of patient recruitment, data collection procedures and whether parents understood the questions.

Results

Children were recruited via a network of paediatricians in Italy and a sentinel influenza surveillance network of general practitioners in the Netherlands. In Italy and the Netherlands, 293 and 152 children were swabbed respectively, 119 and 32 tested RSV positive; for 119 and 12 children the Day-14 questionnaire was completed and for 116 and 11 the Day-30 questionnaire. In Italy, 33% of the children had persistent symptoms after 14 days and in the Netherlands this figure was 67%. Parents had no problems completing questions concerning health care use, duration of symptoms and socio-economic impact, however, they had some difficulties scoring the HRQoL of their young children.

Conclusion

RSV symptoms are common after 14 days, and therefore, measuring disease burden outcomes like health care use, duration of symptoms, and socio-economic impact is also recommended at Day-30. The standardised protocol is suitable to measure the clinical and socio-economic disease burden of RSV in young children in primary care.

Assessment of the Effects of Active Immunisation against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) using Decision-Analytic Models: A Systematic Review with a Focus on Vaccination Strategies, Modelling Methods and Input Data

BACKGROUND

Several vaccine and antibody candidates are currently in development for the prevention of lower respiratory tract infections caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and SCOPUS and included model-based evaluations of RSV vaccinations. Two reviewers performed the selection, data extraction, and quality evaluation with EVIDEM. Cost-effectiveness (CE) estimates were converted to $US purchasing power parity (PPP), year 2018 values. Potential economic and epidemiological outcomes were summarised for maternal, infant, children, and elderly vaccinations. The PROSPERO identifier is CRD42019122570.

RESULTS

In total, 22 model-based studies were reviewed. On average, a potential 27% reduction in RSV hospitalisations in infants was projected for maternal vaccination and 50% for direct infant immunisation. The CE of maternal vaccination was $US1766-5857 PPP 2018/disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi)-eligible countries. For England, the maximum cost-effective price of maternal vaccination was estimated at $US81.5 PPP 2018. Infant vaccination was associated with higher CE ratios in low- and high-income settings. Vaccination of neonates born before the RSV season was the most cost effective in high-income settings. Higher values for vaccine effectiveness, duration of protection, and vaccine uptake increased the benefits. Due to indirect effects, the vaccination of school-age children and a cocooning strategy were effective alternatives to protect infants, and the vaccination of children aged < 5 years had a beneficial impact on the elderly.

CONCLUSION

RSV vaccines with anticipated characteristics may reduce a sizeable proportion of the RSV burden. The results are subject to uncertainty because of the limited epidemiological and clinical data. Data on RSV incidence and hospitalisation risk for granular age strata should be prioritised to facilitate the evaluation of RSV interventions and decision making.

The cost-effectiveness of hypertonic saline inhalations for infant bronchiolitis

BACKGROUND

Pharmacological treatment for bronchiolitis is primarily supportive because bronchodilators, steroids, and antibiotics, show little benefit. Clinical studies have suggested that nebulized 3% hypertonic solution is useful for infants with bronchiolitis. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HS inhalations in infant bronchiolitis in a tropical country.

METHODS

Decision tree analysis was used to calculate the expected costs and QALYs. All cost and use of resources were collected directly from medical invoices of 193 patient hospitalized with diagnosis of bronchiolitis in tertiary centers, of Rionegro, Colombia. The utility values applied to QALYs calculations were collected from the literature. The economic analysis was carried out from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

The model showed that nebulized 3% hypertonic solution, was associated with lower total cost than controls (US $200vs US $240 average cost per patient), and higher QALYs (0.92 vs 0.91 average per patient); showing dominance. A position of dominance negates the need to calculate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

CONCLUSION

The nebulized 3% hypertonic solution was cost-effective in the inpatient treatment of infant bronchiolitis. Our study provides evidence that should be used by decision-makers to improve clinical practice guidelines and should be replicated to validate their results in other tropical countries.

Number needed to immunize to prevent RSV with extended half-life monoclonal antibody

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the most important respiratory pathogens in young children. Infants <6 months of age and infants and young children with extreme pre-term birth, and cardiac and pulmonary co-morbidities experience the highest incidence of severe RSV disease. There are no licensed vaccines; immunoprophylaxis is recommended for the highest risk children. Extended half-life RSV monoclonal antibodies (EHL-mAbs) are under development intended for immunization of all infants and high-risk children <2 years of age. We modeled the anticipated public health benefits of RSV EHL-mAb immunization using the number needed to immunize (NNI).

METHODS

We combined RSV hospitalization, outpatient and outpatient lower respiratory tract infection (LRI) incidence estimates and a range of immunization efficacies to estimate the annual NNI. We calculated the absolute incidence rate reduction (ARR) by multiplying the incidence rates by immunization efficacy. NNI was calculated as the reciprocal of the ARR.

RESULTS

For an RSV EHL-mAb with 70% efficacy, 6-18 infants would need to be immunized to prevent one RSV-associated outpatient visit, and 13-33 infants would need to be immunized to prevent one RSV-associated LRI outpatient visit. To prevent one RSV-associated hospitalization, 37-85 infants 0-5 months of age, and 107-280 infants 6-11 months of age would need to be immunized.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health benefits, such as disease cases averted due to immunization, are essential elements in consideration of candidate vaccines for a national immunization program. An RSV EHL-mAb of moderate efficacy could have high impact. These data provide an additional perspective for public health decision making.

Should we use Palivizumab immunoprophylaxis for infants against respiratory syncytial virus? - a cost-utility analysis

BACKGROUND

Passive immunization against RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) is given in most western countries (including Israel) to infants of high risk groups such as premature babies, and infants with Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease. However, immunoprophylaxis costs are extremely high ($2800-$4200 per infant). Using cost-utility analysis criteria, we evaluate whether it is justified to expand, continue or restrict nationwide immunoprophylaxis using palivizumab of high risk infants against RSV.

METHODS

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated from primary (National Hospitalization Data, etc.) and secondary data sources (ie: from published articles) into a spread-sheet to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of vaccinating various infant risk groups. Costs of intervention included antibody plus administration costs. Treatment savings and DALYs averted were estimated from applying vaccine efficacy data to relative risks of being hospitalised and treated for RSV, including possible long-term sequelae like asthma and wheezing.

RESULTS

For all the groups RSV immunoprophylaxis is clearly not cost effective as its cost per averted DALY exceeds the $105,986 guideline representing thrice the per capita Gross Domestic Product. Vaccine price would have to fall by 48.1% in order to justify vaccinating Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease risk groups respectively on pure cost-effectiveness grounds. For premature babies of < 29 weeks, 29-32 and 33-36 weeks gestation, decreases of 36.8%, 54.5% and 83.3% respectively in vaccine price are required.

CONCLUSIONS

Based solely on cost-utility analysis, at current price levels it is difficult to justify the current indications for passive vaccination with Palivizumab against RSV. However, if the manufacturers would reduce the price by 54.5% then it would be cost-effective to vaccinate the Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease risk groups as well as premature babies born before the 33rd week of gestation.

Active prophylaxis for respiratory syncytial virus: current knowledge and future perspectives

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common respiratory pathogen in infants and young children but represents also an important cause of morbidity in adults, particularly in the elderly and immunocompromised persons. Despite its global impact on human health, no effective treatment is available except for supportive care and no safe vaccine has been licensed yet. Vaccine development has been hindered by several factors including vaccine enhanced disease associated with formalin-inactivated RSV vaccine, ethical concerns and lack of consensus concerning the most appropriate target antigen. In this review, we analyze history of RSV vaccine and current approaches for preventing RSV including live-attenuated, vector-based, subunit, nucleic acid-based, particle-based vaccines and we debate about concerns on target population, correlates of protection and obstacles that are slowing the progress toward a successful RSV vaccination strategy.

Characteristics of children admitted to intensive care with acute bronchiolitis

To assess factors associated with outcome in children admitted to paediatric intensive care (PIC) with bronchiolitis. A retrospective study of children admitted to the PICU at St Mary's Hospital, London with bronchiolitis over a 6-year period (2011-2016). All bronchiolitis admissions < 2 years were included. Data collected particularly noted risk factors for severity, demographics, microbiology and outcome. We compared respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) with non-RSV status. Multivariate analysis was performed. Two hundred seventy-four patients were identified. Median age was 60 days (IQR 28-150 days), 63% were male, 90% were invasively ventilated and 42% were previously healthy. Pre-existing co-morbidities were present in 38%. The most frequently isolated pathogens were RSV (60%) and rhinovirus (26%). Co-infection was present in 45%, most commonly with RSV, rhinovirus and bacterial pathogens. Median length of stay (LOS) was 6 days (IQR 4.75-10). Younger age, prematurity, RSV, co-infection and co-morbidity were identified as significant risk factors for prolonged LOS. Six children died. Five of these had documented co-morbidities.

CONCLUSION

RSV causes more severe bronchiolitis than other viruses. Nearly half of children admitted to PICU with RSV were previously healthy. Current guidelines for immunoprophylaxis of RSV bronchiolitis should be re-considered. What is Known: • Bronchiolitis is one of the most common reasons for unplanned PICU admission. The most common virus causing bronchiolitis is RSV • Bronchiolitis severe enough to require admission to PICU is associated with frequent morbidity but has low mortality. What is New: • RSV causes more severe bronchiolitis than other viruses. • Nearly half of all children admitted to PICU with RSV were previously healthy.

Cost-effectiveness of rule-based immunoprophylaxis against respiratory syncytial virus infections in preterm infants

The objective of the paper is to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prophylaxis based on a validated prediction rule with 1-year time horizon in moderately preterm infants compared to no prophylaxis. Data on health care consumption were derived from a randomised clinical trial on wheeze reduction following RSV prophylaxis and a large birth cohort study on risk prediction of RSV hospitalisation. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of targeted RSV prophylaxis vs. no prophylaxis per quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) using a societal perspective, including medical and parental costs and effects. Costs and health outcomes were modelled in a decision tree analysis with sensitivity analyses. Targeted RSV prophylaxis in infants with a first-year RSV hospitalisation risk of > 10% resulted in a QALY gain of 0.02 (0.931 vs. 0.929) per patient against additional cost of €472 compared to no prophylaxis (ICER €214,748/QALY). The ICER falls below a threshold of €80,000 per QALY when RSV prophylaxis cost would be lowered from €928 (baseline) to €406 per unit. At a unit cost of €97, RSV prophylaxis would be cost saving.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted RSV prophylaxis is not cost-effective in reducing RSV burden of disease in moderately preterm infants, but it can become cost-effective if lower priced biosimilar palivizumab or a vaccine would be available.

Palivizumab in the prevention of severe respiratory syncytial virus infection in children with congenital heart disease; a novel cost-utility modeling study reflecting evidence-based clinical pathways in Spain

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection remains one of the major reasons of re-hospitalization among children with congenital heart disease (CHD). This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of palivizumab prophylaxis versus placebo, in Spain, from the societal perspective, using a novel cost-effectiveness model reflecting evidence-based clinical pathways.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model, combining a decision tree structure in the first year and a Markov structure in later years, was constructed to evaluate the benefits and costs associated with palivizumab versus no prophylaxis among children with CHD. In the first year of the model, children were at risk of mild (i.e. medically attended, MA-RSV) and severe (hospitalized, RSV-H) RSV infection. The impact of delayed corrective CHD surgery due to RSV infection and the consequence of performed surgery despite severe infection were considered. In later years, patients were at risk of developing asthma and allergic sensitization as sequelae of RSV infection. Input data for the model were derived from the pivotal clinical trial and systematic literature reviews. Indirect costs included parental absence from work and nosocomial infections. In agreement with Spanish guidelines, costs and effects were discounted at 3%.

RESULTS

Over a lifetime horizon, palivizumab prophylaxis yielded 0.11 and 0.07 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life years (LYs), respectively, at additional costs of € 1,693, resulting in an ICER of € 15,748 per QALY gained and € 24,936 per LY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the probability of palivizumab prophylaxis being cost-effective at a € 30,000 per QALY threshold was 92.7%. The ICER remained below this threshold for most extreme scenario analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The model demonstrated that palivizumab prophylaxis results in more QALYs than no prophylaxis in children with CHD. Palivizumab prophylaxis was shown to be a cost-effective health care intervention according to the commonly accepted standards of cost-effectiveness in Spain (ICER below the threshold of € 30,000 per QALY).

Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6-37% for 0-2month old children, and 30-46% for 3-5month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant's first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely.

Burden of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus disease and potential effect of different immunisation strategies: a modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis for England

BACKGROUND

Vaccines and prophylactic antibodies against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are in development and likely to be available in the next 5-10 years. The most efficient way to use these products when they become available is an important consideration for public health decision makers.

METHODS

We performed a multivariate regression analysis to estimate the burden of RSV in children younger than 5 years in England (UK), a representative high-income temperate country, and used these results to assess the potential effect of different RSV immunisation strategies (targeting vaccination for infants, or pregnant women, or prophylactic antibodies for neonates). We did a cost-effectiveness analysis for these strategies, implemented either separately or concurrently, and assessed the effect of restricting vaccination to certain months of the year.

FINDINGS

We estimated that RSV is responsible for 12 primary care consultations (95% CI 11·9-12·1) and 0·9 admissions to hospital annually per 100 children younger than 5 years (95% CI 0·89-0·90), with the major burden occurring in infants younger than 6 months. The most cost-effective strategy was to selectively immunise all children born before the start of the RSV season (maximum price of £220 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 208-232] per vaccine, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year). The maximum price per fully protected person that should be paid for the infant, newborn, and maternal strategies without seasonal restrictions was £192 (95% UI 168-219), £81 (76-86), and £54 (51-57), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Nearly double the number of primary care consultations, and nearly five times the number of admissions to hospital occurred with RSV compared with influenza. RSV vaccine and antibody strategies are likely to be cost-effective if they can be priced below around £200 per fully protected person. A seasonal vaccination strategy is likely to provide the most direct benefits. Herd effects might render a year-round infant vaccination strategy more appealing, although it is currently unclear whether such a programme would induce herd effects.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health Research.

Group B streptococcus and respiratory syncytial virus immunisation during pregnancy: a landscape analysis

Group B streptococcus and respiratory syncytial virus are leading causes of infant morbidity and mortality worldwide. No licensed vaccines are available for either disease, but vaccines for both are under development. Severe respiratory syncytial virus disease can be prevented by passively administered antibody. The presence of maternal IgG antibody specific to respiratory syncytial virus is associated with reduced prevalence and severity of respiratory syncytial virus disease in the first few weeks of life, whereas maternal serotype-specific anticapsular antibody is associated with protection against both early-onset and late-onset group B streptococcus disease. Therefore, vaccination in pregnancy might protect infants against both diseases. This report describes what is known about immune protection against group B streptococcus and respiratory syncytial virus, identifies knowledge gaps regarding the immunobiology of both diseases, and aims to prioritise research directions in maternal immunisation.

Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy, and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be acheived with 75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of RSV Vaccination of Infants and Pregnant Women in Turkey: An Illustration Based on Bursa Data

Background

Worldwide, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is considered to be the most important viral cause of respiratory morbidity and mortality among infants and young children. Although no active vaccine is available on the market yet, there are several active vaccine development programs in various stages. To assess whether one of these vaccines might be a future asset for national immunization programs, modeling the costs and benefits of various vaccination strategies is needed.

Objectives

To evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of RSV vaccination of infants and/or pregnant women in Turkey.

Methods

A multi-cohort static Markov model with cycles of one month was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of vaccinated cohorts versus non-vaccinated cohorts. The 2014 Turkish birth cohort was divided by twelve to construct twelve monthly birth cohorts of equal size (111,459 new-borns). Model input was based on clinical data from a multicenter prospective study from Bursa, Turkey, combined with figures from the (inter)national literature and publicly available data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜÏK). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed in Turkish Lira (TL) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

Results

Vaccinating infants at 2 and 4 months of age would prevent 145,802 GP visits, 8,201 hospitalizations and 48 deaths during the first year of life, corresponding to a total gain of 1650 QALYs. The discounted ICER was estimated at 51,969 TL (26,220 US $ in 2013) per QALY gained. Vaccinating both pregnant women and infants would prevent more cases, but was less attractive from a pure economic point of view with a discounted ICER of 61,653 TL (31,106 US $ in 2013) per QALY. Vaccinating only during pregnancy would result in fewer cases prevented than infant vaccination and a less favorable ICER.

Conclusion

RSV vaccination of infants and/or pregnant women has the potential to be cost-effective in Turkey. Although using relatively conservative assumptions, all evaluated strategies remained slightly below the threshold of 3 times the GDP per capita.

RSV vaccine use--the missing data

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the most important cause of hospitalization in infants and is one of the leading global causes of infant mortality and as such its prevention through vaccination is a public health priority. While essential for the successful implementation of vaccine programs, there remains a paucity of data on the epidemiology of the virus in different settings and age groups and limited knowledge about virus transmission and the health-care costs of the disease. Such data are now needed to populate health economic models and to inform optimal approaches to disease control through vaccination.

Modelling the seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus in young children

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of paediatric morbidity. Mathematical models can be used to characterise annual RSV seasonal epidemics and are a valuable tool to assess the impact of future vaccines.

OBJECTIVES

Construct a mathematical model of seasonal epidemics of RSV and by fitting to a population-level RSV dataset, obtain a better understanding of RSV transmission dynamics.

METHODS

We obtained an extensive dataset of weekly RSV testing data in children aged less than 2 years, 2000-2005, for a birth cohort of 245,249 children through linkage of laboratory and birth record datasets. We constructed a seasonally forced compartmental age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) mathematical model to fit to the seasonal curves of positive RSV detections using the Nelder-Mead method.

RESULTS

From 15,830 specimens, 3,394 were positive for RSV. RSV detections exhibited a distinct biennial seasonal pattern with alternating sized peaks in winter months. Our SEIRS model accurately mimicked the observed data with alternating sized peaks using disease parameter values that remained constant across the 6 years of data. Variations in the duration of immunity and recovery periods were explored. The best fit to the data minimising the residual sum of errors was a model using estimates based on previous models in the literature for the infectious period and a slightly lower estimate for the immunity period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our age-structured model based on routinely collected population laboratory data accurately captures the observed seasonal epidemic curves. The compartmental SEIRS model, based on several assumptions, now provides a validated base model. Ranges for the disease parameters in the model that could replicate the patterns in the data were identified. Areas for future model developments include fitting climatic variables to the seasonal parameter, allowing parameters to vary according to age and implementing a newborn vaccination program to predict the effect on RSV incidence.

Preventing severe respiratory syncytial virus disease: passive, active immunisation and new antivirals

In most high-income countries palivizumab prophylaxis is considered safe, efficacious and cost-effective for preventing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions among specific subgroups of infants born preterm, with chronic lung disease or with congenital heart disease. Virtually all babies acquire RSV during infancy and previously healthy babies are not eligible to receive palivizumab. Emerging evidence suggests some benefit of palivizumab use in reducing recurrent wheeze among infants born preterm. Better longitudinal studies are needed to examine its clinical and cost-effectiveness on recurrent and chronic respiratory illness and associated healthcare burden on resources in the community and hospitals. Since 99% of child deaths attributed to RSV occur in resource poor countries where expensive prophylaxis is not available or affordable, palivizumab has limited potential to impact on the current global burden of RSV lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). A range of candidate vaccines for active immunisation against RSV are now in clinical trials. Two promising new antivirals are also currently in phase I/II trials to test their effectiveness in preventing severe RSV LRTI. These agents may be effective in preventing severe disease and phase III studies are in development. In the absence of effective active immunisation against RSV infection, population level approaches to prevent severe RSV LRTI should continue to focus on reducing prenatal and environmental risk factors including prematurity, smoking and improving hygiene practices.

RSV vaccine in development: assessing the potential cost-effectiveness in the Dutch elderly population

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is increasingly recognized as an important cause of morbidity, mortality and health-care utilization in the elderly population. A theoretical model was built to assess the levels of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine costs for which a hypothetical RSV-vaccine for Dutch elderly could be cost-effective.

METHODS

Different vaccination strategies were evaluated by changing the levels of vaccine effectiveness and the willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year gained (QALY). Outcome measures included direct medical costs, QALYs, life years gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and the maximum total vaccination costs per individual (i.e. (vaccine price+administration costs)×nr of doses) while remaining cost-effective.

RESULTS

Using base-case assumptions, it was estimated that vaccination of all persons 60 years and older would prevent 3402GP visits, 2989 antibiotic prescriptions, 535 hospitalizations and 249 deaths and would cost €73,261 per QALY, for a vaccine effectiveness of 70%. Vaccinating only the high risk population of 60 years and older would reduce the estimates to 2042GP visits, 2009 antibiotic prescriptions, 179 hospitalizations and 209 deaths and this reduced the cost per QALY to €34,796 per QALY. Using the same assumptions, the maximum total vaccination costs per individual ranged from €26 when vaccinating all persons 60 and older to €68 when vaccinating only persons aged 85 and above, using a willingness to pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. For the high risk population aged 60 years and older the estimated maximum total vaccination costs ranged from €52 to €99.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of Dutch elderly against RSV was found cost-effective for several scenarios. As expected, vaccination is more likely to be cost-effective when only including persons who are at increased risk for contracting RSV or the potential complications of RSV. This theoretical study shows that based on the disease burden in the Dutch population aged 60yrs and older there is potential to develop a vaccine that might be considered cost-effective in the Netherlands.

Respiratory syncytial virus immunization program for the United States: impact of performance determinants of a theoretical vaccine

OBJECTIVES

To inform strategic decisions on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine development and identify critical endpoints likely to drive the vaccine's medical and economic impact.

DESIGN

A decision-analysis model populated using healthcare utilization data and costs from the literature; vaccine efficacy and duration based on assumptions.

SETTING

Vaccination in the physician office setting in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A hypothetical cohort of newborn infants.

INTERVENTION

Vaccination of children at low and high risk of respiratory sequelae with a theoretical RSV vaccine vs palivizumab prophylaxis for children at high risk.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Medical and economic value of RSV vaccination, including cost per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

Using base-case assumptions (efficacy 50% at birth; half-life 12 months), RSV vaccination would prevent 23,069 hospitalizations and 66 deaths per vaccinated birth cohort in the USA. Excluding vaccination costs, direct medical costs for RSV would reduce by $236 million, and income and productivity losses by $134 million. Assuming a vaccine cost per course similar to Rotarix® in the USA ($232 including administration fees), the cost per QALY gained would be $93,401 (95% CI: $65,815-$126,060) from the healthcare system perspective and $65,115 (95% CI: $41,003-$93,679) from the societal perspective. The net cost (healthcare system perspective) per life-year saved would be $216,120 (95% CI: $161,184-$263,981); the cost per hospitalization averted would be $19,172 (95% CI: $14,679-$22,093). Aside from efficacy, the vaccine's impact is sensitive to the start of protective immunity and the duration of protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of an RSV vaccine would substantially reduce inpatient hospitalizations and outpatient visits. It would also have an impact on infant mortality. To demonstrate the full medical and economic value of the vaccine, appropriate endpoints or endpoint surrogates for hospitalization, mortality, and total case reductions should be collected during vaccine development.