Modeling preventative strategies against human papillomavirus-related disease in developed countries

Emerging trends in biomedical trait-based human identification: A bibliometric analysis

Personal human identification is a crucial aspect of modern society with applications spanning from law enforcement to healthcare and digital security. This bibliometric paper presents a comprehensive analysis of recent advances in personal human identification methodologies focusing on biomedical traits. The paper examines a diverse range of research articles, reviews, and patents published over the last decade to provide insights into the evolving landscape of biometric identification techniques. The study categorizes the identified literature into distinct biomedical trait categories, including but not limited to, fingerprint and palmprint recognition, iris and retinal scanning, facial recognition, voice and speech analysis, gait recognition, and DNA-based identification. Through systematic analysis, the paper highlights key trends, emerging technologies, and interdisciplinary collaborations in each category, revealing the interdisciplinary nature of research in this field. Furthermore, the bibliometric analysis examines the geographical distribution of research efforts, identifying prominent countries and institutions contributing to advancements in personal human identification. Collaboration networks among researchers and institutions are visualized to depict the knowledge flow and collaborative dynamics within the field. Overall, this study serves as a valuable reference for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers, shedding light on the current status and potential future directions of personal human identification leveraging biomedical traits.

HPV Opportunistic Vaccination: A Literature Review and a Single-Center Experience in Northern Italy through the COVID-19 Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) set the goal of 90% HPV vaccination coverage in the population to eliminate cervical cancer. Opportunistic vaccination is performed outside the free vaccination or catch-up programs. Both free and opportunistic HPV vaccination programs experienced slowdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this retrospective study, we aimed to identify the benefits and the obstacles of opportunistic vaccination among male and female individuals who took advantage of the "on-demand" service offered by San Raffaele Hospital in Milan from April 2018 to May 2023. The impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on vaccination adherence was also analyzed. Data on a total of 527 subjects were collected from an in-house database and through personal interviews. Women in the cohort of older patients (over 25) adhered to the vaccination schedule more than younger women. Opportunistic vaccination request is influenced by the need of a gynecologist, a general practitioner, or public health clinic availability. Women also showed good adherence to screening, demonstrating awareness of the importance of cervical cancer secondary prevention despite vaccination. Opportunistic vaccination offers the possibility of including individuals excluded from the free vaccination campaigns, often already affected by lesions caused by HPV, providing increased viral clearance and faster lesion regression. The main limit remains the economic burden.

Health impact and cost effectiveness of implementing gender-neutral HPV vaccination in Japan

OBJECTIVE

To assess the public health impact and cost effectiveness of gender-neutral vaccination (GNV) versus female-only vaccination (FOV) with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Japan.

METHODS

We modeled the public health impact and cost effectiveness of GNV versus FOV to prevent HPV-associated diseases in Japan over the next 100 years. We used one-way sensitivity analyses to examine the impact of varying key model input parameters and conducted scenario analyses to explore the effects of varying the vaccination coverage rate (VCR) of each cohort.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, GNV averted additional cancer cases (17,228 female/6,033 male) and deaths (1,892 female/1,849 male) compared to FOV. When all HPV-associated diseases were considered, GNV had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ¥4,732,320 (US$35,987)/quality-adjusted life year gained compared to FOV. The model was most sensitive to the discount rate and the disutility associated with HPV-related diseases. GNV had greater relative public health benefits when the female VCR was lower and was cost effective at a female VCR of 30%.

CONCLUSIONS

Immediate implementation of GNV would reduce the disease burden and mortality associated with HPV in Japan, and would be cost effective compared to FOV if the female VCR remains low (30%).

Knowledge, Perceptions and Attitudes Toward HPV Vaccination: A Survey on Parents of Girls Aged 11–18 Years Old in Greece

Objective

To investigate knowledge, perceptions and practices of parents of girls aged 11–18 years old in Greece toward HPV vaccination, and determine which factors are associated with parents' decision to vaccinate their daughters.

Methods

A close-end questionnaire was constructed and telephone interviews were conducted upon informed consent. The sample was random, national, stratified by geographic region and representative of the general population of parents of girls aged 11–18. The data collected include: general knowledge, attitudes and perceptions concerning HPV and HPV vaccine, information regarding their daughters' HPV vaccination, and sociodemographic characteristics. Statistical analysis included descriptives and a logistic regression model to investigate which factors are associated with HPV vaccination.

Results

Overall, 1,000 parents participated in the study, 99.4% of which knew what HPV is and 98.8% knew there is a vaccine available against HPV. Furthermore, 47% of the parents stated that their daughters had been vaccinated against HPV, while further analysis revealed that only 35% had received all the recommended doses. In the logistic regression analysis, the following variables had a statistically significant association with HPV vaccination: perceived ease of contracting HPV (OR = 1.105), level of trust in medical profession regarding information on prevention (OR = 1.205), overall perception regarding importance of children's vaccination (OR = 0.618), internet/social media as a source of parent information regarding HPV (OR = 0.886), participant (parent) age (OR = 1.125), and daughter's treating physician's recommendation for HPV vaccination (OR = 7.319).

Conclusions

HPV vaccination coverage is still suboptimal. Comprehension of the obstacles toward this goal is important and the role of healthcare professionals is crucial to increase acceptance.

An Umbrella Review of the Cost Effectiveness of Human Papillomavirus Vaccines

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Although many systematic reviews for the human papillomavirus vaccines cost effectiveness have been published, they vary in perspectives, methods, and quality. We aimed to condense systematically such evidence to facilitate locating, processing, and learning, not only about the consensus of findings but also how models were built and their evolution over time and across settings.

METHODS

We conducted an umbrella review of cost-effectiveness studies for human papillomavirus vaccines using three databases (PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane). Based on their objectives, we classified studies into three groups (human papillomavirus vaccines cost effectiveness, model characteristics, and all-type vaccines, including human papillomavirus vaccines). We used the AMTAR2 to assess the quality of the studies. Additionally, we provided a summary of study findings, discussions, and evidence gaps in the literature.

RESULTS

Though most studies were critically low quality and had a low quality of reporting, the human papillomavirus vaccine was consistently cost effective in young girls and men who have sex with men. Stratified analyses by rated quality did not change the results. The quality assessment of the reviews did not necessarily reflect the quality assessment of underlying studies. The human papillomavirus vaccine models became more complex over time, capturing more realistic disease transmission with different human papillomavirus strains and herd immunities.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional evidence is needed for vulnerable populations (e.g., childhood cancer survivors) who are at high risk for human papillomavirus vaccine-related cancers and, therefore, may be more cost effective when receiving human papillomavirus vaccines. Quantifying human papillomavirus vaccine cost effectiveness via meta-analyses is feasible if investigators can increase the homogeneity of their populations.

COVID-19 pandemic control using restrictions and vaccination

This work deals with the impact of the vaccination in combination with a restriction parameter that represents non-pharmaceutical interventions measures applied to the compartmental SEIR model in order to control the COVID-19 epidemic. This restriction parameter is used as a control parameter, and the univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is used to forecast the time series of vaccination of all individuals of a specific country. Having in hand the time series of the population fully vaccinated (real data + forecast), the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to fit an analytic function that models this evolution over time. Here, it is used two time series of real data that refer to a slow vaccination obtained from India and Brazil, and two faster vaccination as observed in Israel and the United States of America. Together with vaccination, two different control approaches are presented in this paper, which enable reduces the infected people successfully: namely, the feedback and nonfeedback control methods. Numerical results predict that vaccination can reduce the peaks of infections and the duration of the pandemic, however, a better result is achieved when the vaccination is combined with any restrictions or prevention policy.

HPV vaccine for men: Where to? (Review)

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most widespread human pathogens. For a long time, it was treated as an opportunistic infection, but it is in actuality one of the most dangerous carcinogens. It is responsible for numerous malignancies: Cervical, penile, oropharyngeal, vaginal, vulvar and some anal neoplasia. The need for a long-term solution was evident and thus HPV vaccines were proven to be a viable solution. Women and men who have sex with men, and young men are included in the vaccination template. A thorough review using PubMed and other databases that included articles on vaccine templates and targeted male patients was carried out. After review of all of the studies conducted on this subject, there is a clear benefit for HPV vaccination for men. Yet, even with the introduction of a national vaccine program for HPV for women and girls in most developed countries, regarding the male vaccine program, few countries have established a national program. Still, a gender-neutral vaccine remains a controversial issue. It is important to monitor the impact of HPV vaccine in men and the benefits that occur, to inform and spread the results in order to implement this vaccine program worldwide. Any monitoring plan regarding the HPV vaccination must include HPV prevalence, anogenital warts, and anal cancer. The largest impact regarding the range of this type of vaccine is the surveillance of the specific targeted population. HPV vaccine is a very efficient immunization method. Women are obviously the first target, but there are still many contradictions regarding men. Most of the reasons reside in the cost-efficiency aspect, but there is still great debate regarding the most efficient vaccine in the male population.

Landscape assessment for gender neutral human papillomavirus vaccination recommendations including head and neck cancer burden data

INTRODUCTION

Head and neck cancers (HNC) accounted for over 450,000 deaths and 900,000 cases in 2018 worldwide. Of those, 38,000 cases were attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV). HNC is two to four times more prevalent in men than in women. The incidence of oropharyngeal cancers (OPC) and oral cavity cancers caused by HPV has increased in recent decades. Given the substantial burden of HPV-related HNC in males, this study aimed to assess whether and how national agencies included HPV-related HNC when evaluating HPV genderneutral vaccination (GNV) programs.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted in MEDLINE® and EMBASE®, and on the websites of selected national agencies.

RESULTS

Searches identified a potential 205 records; seventeen were eligible for the review. Seventy percent of assessments were published by European countries and most were recent (2014-2019). Eleven (65%) reports considered OPC when discussing HNC, and a few included other anatomic sites. All reports that considered incidence data were in consensus that incidence of OPC was higher in men and showed that the mortality rates for HPV-related HNC were also higher in men. When looking at the economic impact, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the assessments varied widely, as the inputs into the analyses were heterogeneous. However, several reports concluded GNV programs were likely to be cost-effective versus not vaccinating males.

CONCLUSION

The burden of HPV-related HNC in the general male population has been recognized by several Heatlth Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies and National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) when evaluating HPV GNV programs. The assessments identified on GNV programs strongly indicate a cost-effective clinical benefit. Nevertheless, the epidemiological burden of HNC may have been underestimated in some countries due to limited data. Further research is crucial to obtain more robust data that will help address the information gap in epidemiological and economic burden of HPV-associated HNC in men.

Sociodemographic Correlates of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Uptake: Opportunistic and Catch-Up Vaccination in Norway

Simple Summary

HPV vaccination protects against virus that may cause cervical cancer. Opportunistic HPV vaccination (i.e., vaccination at a citizens’ own initiative and cost) has been available in Norway since the first HPV vaccine was licensed in 2006. A routine HPV vaccination program targeting 12-year-old girls was introduced in 2009. A delayed catch-up vaccination program was initiated in 2016, offering HPV vaccination free-of-charge to women born in 1991 and later who had not previously been vaccinated in the routine program. The aim of this study was to assess sociodemographic correlates of opportunistic and catch-up HPV vaccine uptake among women in Norway. We found inequalities in both self-paid opportunistic and free-of-charge catch-up HPV vaccine uptake among adolescents and adult women, with particularly low uptake among women with two immigrant parents and among women with a low household income.

Abstract

Achieving equity in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has high priority. In this nationwide registry-based study, we aimed to investigate sociodemographic correlates of HPV vaccine uptake among women who were vaccinated opportunistically at their own initiative and cost during October 2006–June 2018, and among women who were vaccinated free-of-charge in a catch-up vaccination program during November 2016–June 2018. For 840,328 female residents born in Norway between 1975 and 1996, we retrieved HPV vaccination and sociodemographic data from national registries. We used separate models to analyze the sociodemographic correlates of the initiation and completion of HPV vaccination in opportunistic and catch-up vaccination settings. Overall initiation rate for opportunistic HPV vaccination was 2.2%. Uptake increased consistently with birth year, maternal education level, and household income. Having two immigrant parents or a mother working in a lower prestige occupation was strongly associated with low opportunistic vaccination uptake. Similar but weaker inequities were observed in catch-up HPV vaccination. Initiation rate during the first 20 months of the catch-up program was 46.2%. Completion rate was 72.1% and 73.0% for opportunistic or catch-up vaccination, respectively, with small inequities. In conclusion, HPV vaccine uptake was strongly associated with sociodemographic background both in opportunistic and catch-up vaccination settings, with particularly low uptake associated with having two immigrant parents and low household income.

Human papillomavirus vaccination uptake in low-and middle-income countries: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The proportion of incident cases of HPV-attributable cancers is highest in the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but many are yet to initiate HPV vaccination programs. This meta-analysis was performed to assess the uptake of HPV vaccination in LMICs at the beginning of the global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer and describes the gaps and challenges.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, and CENTRAL databases for observational studies that reported the uptake of HPV vaccination until October 2020. The meta-analysis was done using a random-effects model to assess the pooled estimate of HPV uptake. CRD42021218429.

FINDINGS

During 2008-2020, an estimated 3.3 million females received at least one dose of HPV vaccine with 61.69% of the target population vaccinated. In countries with high uptake, the pooled estimate of uptake was higher in females than males (45.48% vs 8.45%) and showed significant decline in 2015-2020 compared to 2006-2014 (89.03% vs 41.48%). In countries with low uptake, the estimate of uptake was low in both males and females (5.31% vs 2.93%) and showed increase in uptake in 2015-2020 compared to 2006-2014 (0.76% vs 5.22%). In countries with high uptake, compared to routine programs, the estimate was higher when delivered through demonstration programs (89.94% vs 59.74%).

INTERPRETATION

The major concern was a significant drop in the uptake in countries that started with high uptake, challenges in the maintenance of vaccine uptake, sustainability of funding and the lack of standard monitoring and reporting.

A proposed new generation of evidence-based microsimulation models to inform global control of cervical cancer

Health decision models are the only available tools designed to consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and the estimated long-term impact of preventive interventions. Yet health decision modeling results are often considered a lesser form of scientific evidence due to the inherent needs to rely on imperfect data and make numerous assumptions and extrapolations regarding complex processes. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses due to their subjectivity and lack of reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of subsequent transition probabilities. We posit that the new model health states (normal, carcinogenic HPV infection, precancer, cancer) and corollary transitions are universal, but that the probabilities of transitioning between states may vary by population. Evidence for this variability in host response to HPV infections can be inferred from HPV prevalence patterns in different regions across the lifespan, and might be linked to different average population levels of immunologic control of HPV infections. By prioritizing direct estimation of model transition probabilities from longitudinal data (and limiting reliance on model-fitting techniques that may propagate error when applied to multiple transitions), we aim to reduce the number of assumptions for greater transparency and reliability. We propose this new microsimulation model for critique and discussion, hoping to contribute to models that maximally inform efficient strategies towards global cervical cancer elimination.

Penile cancer

Penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) is a rare cancer with orphan disease designation and a prevalence of 0.1-1 per 100,000 men in high-income countries, but it constitutes up to 10% of malignancies in men in some African, Asian and South American regions. Risk factors for PSCC include the absence of childhood circumcision, phimosis, chronic inflammation, poor penile hygiene, smoking, immunosuppression and infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). Several different subtypes of HPV-related and non-HPV-related penile cancers have been described, which also have different prognostic profiles. Localized disease can be effectively managed by topical therapy, surgery or radiotherapy. As PSCC is characterized by early lymphatic spread and imaging is inadequate for the detection of micrometastatic disease, correct and upfront surgical staging of the inguinal lymph nodes is crucial in disease management. Advanced stages of disease require multimodal management. Optimal sequencing of treatments and patient selection are still being investigated. Cisplatin-based chemotherapy regimens are the mainstay of systemic therapy for advanced PSCC, but they have poor and non-durable responses and high rates of toxic effects, indicating a need for the development of more effective and less toxic therapeutic options. Localized and advanced penile cancers and their treatment have profound physical and psychosexual effects on the quality of life of patients and survivors by altering sexual and urinary function and causing lymphoedema.

Engaging practices and communities in the development of interventions to promote HPV vaccine uptake: a protocol for implementing Boot Camp Translation in the private practice setting

INTRODUCTION

The Healthy People 2020 report states a goal of 80% uptake of recommended vaccines among adolescents, including the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. However, the rate of uptake of the HPV vaccine is estimated at 51% in 2018, which leaves young people vulnerable to morbidity and mortality from preventable, HPV-related cancers. Reasons for this are multifactorial and include factors at the level of the provider, primary care practice, patient and family, and community. The development of interventions that are responsive to these multifactorial barriers in real-world settings is a priority. Boot Camp Translation (BCT) is a community-engaged approach to message development for translating evidence-based practices into clinics and communities. This project aims to (1) Engage practices and communities in the development of interventions to promote HPV vaccine uptake and (2) Evaluate the impact of the BCT-designed intervention on practice-level HPV vaccine initiation rates. We hypothesise that the BCT-designed intervention will increase the rate of HPV vaccine initiation in the practices.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study will implement HPV-focused BCT in three counties in Colorado with a below average county-level vaccination rate. Each BCT group will design a multipronged intervention targeted at patients, parents, providers and the general community to then be disseminated in the participating practices and communities over the subsequent 6-month period. The long-term goal is to develop a replicable approach and low-cost method of increasing HPV vaccine uptake that is easily adaptable to different settings and sociodemographic contexts.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study is approved by the Colorado Multiple Institutional Review Board. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed manuscripts and conference presentations, as well as within Colorado practice-based research networks.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04279964.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adults through age 45 years in the United States: Estimates from a simplified transmission model

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to assess incremental costs and benefits of a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program expanded to include "mid-adults" (adults aged 27 through 45 years) in the United States.

METHODS

We adapted a previously published, dynamic mathematical model of HPV transmission and HPV-associated disease to estimate the incremental costs and benefits of a 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV) program for people aged 12 through 45 years compared to a 9vHPV program for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years.

RESULTS

A 9vHPV program for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years was estimated to cost < $10,000 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, compared to no vaccination. Expanding the 9vHPV program to include mid-adults was estimated to cost $587,600 per additional QALY gained when including adults through age 30 years, and $653,300 per additional QALY gained when including adults through age 45 years. Results were most sensitive to assumptions about HPV incidence among mid-adults, current and historical vaccination coverage, vaccine price, and the impact of HPV diseases on quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Mid-adult vaccination is much less cost-effective than the comparison strategy of routine vaccination for all adolescents at ages 11 to 12 years and catch-up vaccination for women through age 26 years and men through age 21 years.

Cost-effectiveness of 2-dose human papillomavirus vaccination for 12-year-old girls in Zhejiang Province: implications for China's expanded program on immunization

BACKGROUND

The high cost and insufficient supply of HPV vaccines have substantially slowed their implementation in lower-income countries. This study aimed to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination (bivalent 16/18 vaccine; 2vHPV) compared to a no-vaccination scenario and a three-dose scenario in one province in China.

METHODS

A static Markov model was used to model a lifetime cohort of 100,000 girls aged 12 years at the start of vaccination. A two-dose vaccination schedule was assumed to be non-inferior to a three-dose schedule in terms of vaccine efficacy, and both vaccination schemes were assumed to provide lifelong protection. Incremental costs, health effects and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to measure the outcomes when comparing the different strategies.

RESULTS

Compared to no vaccination, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (Chinese yuan per quality-adjusted life year) of the two-dose vaccination strategy is 12,472, and the 2-dose strategy is calculated to be cost saving relative to the 3-dose vaccination strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing the 2vHPV vaccine would be highly cost effective at a per-dose vaccine price of CNY 500, which has implications for cervical cancer control in China and other resource-limited countries.

Comparison of the implementation of human papillomavirus and hepatitis B vaccination programs in the United States: Implications for future vaccines

Vaccines for two viruses which cause cancer, human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV), are recommended for all children in the United States. Numerous parallels exist between the two vaccines in addition to their roles in cancer prevention, including transmission through sexual contact, multiple doses needed for series completion, and vaccine administration in adolescence for HPV and in the initial phase of the HBV vaccination program. All of these factors were viewed as potential barriers to achieving high rates of coverage, yet the ultimate success of the HBV vaccination program led to predictions that similarly high rates of coverage could be achieved for the HPV vaccine. However, currently, only the recommendation for HBV vaccination is supported by mandates for school entry in most states. Uptake of the HPV vaccine has lagged far behind U.S. goals for public health promotion. The aim of this paper is to examine factors which may account for the divergent pathways of the two vaccines. Four main factors are identified: logistical challenges of vaccine administration, attitudes of parents and healthcare providers, safety concerns, and cost. For each factor examined, recommendations are offered to confront similar barriers likely to arise for future vaccines. The authors conclude that gender-neutral state mandates coupled with school-located vaccination programs, stronger gender-neutral messaging from pharmaceutical companies and healthcare providers, and younger age of vaccine administration, if approved, present the most promising approaches to improving uptake of the HPV vaccine, and similar vaccines down the road.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making.

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General modelling guidelines are insufficient for reporting HPV models.

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HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a quality-based framework for HPV models.

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The framework has seven domains consisting of distinct reporting standards.

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HPV-FRAME aims to promote transparency and improve the quality in reporting.

Evidence-based sizing of non-inferiority trials using decision models

Background

There are significant challenges to the successful conduct of non-inferiority trials because they require large numbers to demonstrate that an alternative intervention is “not too much worse” than the standard. In this paper, we present a novel strategy for designing non-inferiority trials using an approach for determining the appropriate non-inferiority margin (δ), which explicitly balances the benefits of interventions in the two arms of the study (e.g. lower recurrence rate or better survival) with the burden of interventions (e.g. toxicity, pain), and early and late-term morbidity.

Methods

We use a decision analytic approach to simulate a trial using a fixed value for the trial outcome of interest (e.g. cancer incidence or recurrence) under the standard intervention (p_S) and systematically varying the incidence of the outcome in the alternative intervention (p_A). The non-inferiority margin, p_A – p_S = δ, is reached when the lower event rate of the standard therapy counterbalances the higher event rate but improved morbidity burden of the alternative. We consider the appropriate non-inferiority margin as the tipping point at which the quality-adjusted life-years saved in the two arms are equal.

Results

Using the European Polyp Surveillance non-inferiority trial as an example, our decision analytic approach suggests an appropriate non-inferiority margin, defined here as the difference between the two study arms in the 10-year risk of being diagnosed with colorectal cancer, of 0.42% rather than the 0.50% used to design the trial. The size of the non-inferiority margin was smaller for higher assumed burden of colonoscopies.

Conclusions

The example demonstrates that applying our proposed method appears feasible in real-world settings and offers the benefits of more explicit and rigorous quantification of the various considerations relevant for determining a non-inferiority margin and associated trial sample size.

Ten years of HPV vaccination in the Netherlands: current evidence and future challenges in HPV-related disease prevention

INTRODUCTION

Girls-only vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 and 18 was implemented in the Netherlands in 2009. Despite the evidence of the efficacy against precancerous lesions, cross-protection induced by the vaccine and a greater potential for cancer prevention than cervical cancer only, vaccine coverage in the girls-only program has remained below target levels.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the literature from the Netherlands on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination since vaccine introduction, give an account of the coverage, safety and effectiveness of HPV vaccination as has been reported in the Dutch surveillance program and discuss challenges of the current HPV vaccination program.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Girls-only HPV vaccination may confer a substantial health gain in HPV-related disease prevention. However, vaccine coverage declined remarkably recently possibly related to safety concerns, limiting the benefits from girls' vaccination and increasing the potential additional benefit of sex-neutral HPV vaccination. Considering the emergence of novel vaccination and screening options and the change from cytology- to HPV-based screening in 2017, further research is required to inform decisions on the optimization of an integrated vaccination and screening program.

Present challenges in cervical cancer prevention: Answers from cost-effectiveness analyses

Simulation models are commonly used to address important health policy issues that cannot be explored through experimental studies. These models are especially useful to determine a set of strategies that result in a good value for money (cost-effectiveness). Several mathematical models simulating the natural history of HPV and related diseases, especially cervical cancer, have been developed to calculate a relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening interventions. Virtually all cost-effectiveness analyses identify HPV vaccination programmes for preadolescent girls to be cost-effective, even for relatively low vaccination coverage rates. Routine vaccination of preadolescent girls is the primary target population for HPV vaccination as it shows to provide the greatest health impact. Cost-effectiveness analyses assessing other vaccine target groups are less conclusive. Adding additional age-cohorts would accelerate health benefits in some years, although cost-effectiveness becomes less favourable as age at vaccination increases. Including men in HPV vaccination programmes may be a less efficient strategy if done at the expense of female vaccination coverage for reducing the burden of HPV in the population. However, as the HPV vaccine price decreases, the cost-effectiveness of universal vaccination improves, becoming equally as efficient as female-only vaccination. Vaccine price is a decisive factor in the cost-effectiveness analyses. The lower the price, the greater the likelihood that vaccination groups other than the primary target would be considered cost-effective.

[Alternative HPV vaccination schedules in Latin America]

In 2008, the first HPV vaccination program in Latin America started in Panama, targeting girls aged 10-11 years with a 3-dose vaccine schedule, an initiative that was to be followed by other Latin American countries after local feasibility and population acceptability evaluations were completed. A 3-dose vaccine regimen over six months was originally chosen for HPV vaccines, copying the Hepatitis B vaccine schedule (0, 1-2, 6 months). Alternative vaccine schedules have been proposed afterwards based on: i) noninferior immunogenicity or immune response levels compared to those at which clinical efficacy has been proven (i.e., those observed in a 3-dose HPV vaccine schedule in women aged 15-26), and, ii) proven efficacy in clinical trials and/or effectiveness among women who were provided less than three doses due to a lack of adherence to a 3-dose vaccine schedule. In 2014, based on the available evidence and the potential increase in coverage by expansion of vaccination target groups, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMIC), the World Health Organization recommended a 2-dose schedule with at least a 6-month interval between doses for females up to 15 years of age and a 3-dose schedule for older women. More recently, it has been suggested that 1-dose HPV vaccination schemes may provide enough protection against HPV infection and may speed up the introduction of HPV vaccination in LMIC, where most needed.

Knowledge and attitudes toward HPV infection and vaccination among immigrants and refugees in Italy

BACKGROUND

The objectives of the present cross-sectional study were to investigate the level of knowledge and attitudes regarding Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and its vaccination and to understand the impact of different determinants among immigrants and refugees in Italy.

METHODS

Between September 2016 and March 2018, a total of 519 potential participants were randomly recruited. The information was collected through a questionnaire administered by two researchers.

RESULTS

Only 15.9% reported that they had heard of HPV infection before completing the survey and 83.8% of them were aware that the infection could be transmitted through sexual intercourses, 32.3% that it can lead to cervical cancer, 22% to warts, 16.2% to penile cancer, 13.2% to oral cancer, 39.7% that cervical cancer is a very severe disease, 47.1% that receiving the vaccine could protect against the infection, and 44.1% that a vaccine against HPV is available in Italy. Females, those who originated from Eastern Europe, Asia and South America, those who lived in a house compared to those who lived in a street, and those who had 1-10 years and 11 or more years of education compared to those illiterate were more likely to have heard about the HPV infection before completing the survey. Only 3 participants (0.7%) received the HPV vaccination. Out of the unvaccinated who had heard of HPV, 50.7% and 59% of those between the ages of 12 and 26 and of those who had at least one child aged 12-26 years, were willing to receive vaccination for themselves as well as their children.

CONCLUSION

The results underscored the necessity to develop health education and promotion aimed at improving the knowledge and vaccination practice in immigrants and refugees.

Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: A Systematic Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVES

To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions.

RESULTS

We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.

Should human papillomavirus vaccination target women over age 26, heterosexual men and men who have sex with men? A targeted literature review of cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for young women up to age 26 is highly cost-effective and has been implemented in 65 countries globally. We investigate the cost-effectiveness for HPV vaccination program in older women (age > 26 years), heterosexual men and men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHOD

A targeted literature review was conducted on PubMed for publications between January 2000 and January 2017 according to the PRISMA guidelines. We included English-language articles that reported the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of HPV vaccination programs for women over age 26, heterosexual men, and MSM and identified the underlying factors for its cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

We included 36 relevant articles (six, 26 and four in older women, heterosexual men and MSM, respectively) from 17 countries (12 high-income (HICs) and five low- and middle-income (LMICs) countries). Most (4/6) studies in women over age 26 did not show cost-effectiveness ($65,000-192,000/QALY gained). Two showed cost-effectiveness, but only when the vaccine cost was largely subsidised and protection to non-naïve women was also considered. Sixteen of 26 studies in heterosexual men were cost-effective (ICER = $19,600-52,800/QALY gained in HICs; $49-5,860/QALY gained in LMICs). Nonavalent vaccines, a low vaccine price, fewer required doses, and a long vaccine protection period were key drivers for cost-effectiveness. In contrast, all four studies on MSM consistently reported cost-effectiveness (ICER = $15,000-$43,000/QALY gained), particularly in MSM age < 40 years and those who were HIV-positive. Countries' vaccination coverage did not significantly correlate with its per-capita Gross National Income.

CONCLUSION

Targeted HPV vaccination for MSM should be next priority in HPV prevention after having established a solid girls vaccination programme. Vaccination for heterosexual men should be considered when 2-dose 4vHPV/9vHPV vaccines become available with a reduced price, whereas targeted vaccination for women over age 26 is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Simple but not simpler: a systematic review of Markov models for economic evaluation of cervical cancer screening

The aim of this study was to critically evaluate the quality of the models used in economic evaluations of screening strategies for cervical cancer prevention. We systematically searched multiple databases, selecting model-based full economic evaluations (cost-effectiveness analyses, cost-utility analyses, and cost-benefit analyses) of cervical cancer screening strategies. Two independent reviewers screened articles for relevance and performed data extraction. Methodological assessment of the quality of the models utilized formal checklists, and a qualitative narrative synthesis was performed. Thirty-eight articles were reviewed. The majority of the studies were conducted in high-income countries (82%, n=31). The Pap test was the most used screening strategy investigated, which was present in 86% (n=33) of the studies. Half of the studies (n=19) used a previously published Markov model. The deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed in 92% (n=35) of the studies. The mean number of properly reported checklist items was 9 out of the maximum possible 18. Items that were better reported included the statement of decision problem, the description of the strategies/comparators, the statement of time horizon, and information regarding the disease states. Compliance with some items of the checklist was poor. The Markov models for economic evaluation of screening strategies for cervical cancer varied in quality. The following points require improvement: 1) assessment of methodological, structural, heterogeneity, and parameter uncertainties; 2) model type and cycle length justification; 3) methods to account for heterogeneity; and 4) report of consistency evaluation (through calibration and validation methods).

Development of a human papillomavirus type 6/11 vaccine candidate for the prevention of condyloma acuminatum

Condyloma acuminatum (CA) represents a significant human papillomavirus (HPV) disease burden worldwide, resulting in substantial healthcare costs and loss of life quality in both genders. To address this problem, we tried to develop a bivalent HPV6/11 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine targeting CA. HPV6/11 VLPs were generated in Hansenula polymorpha, and a disassembly and reassembly (D/R) treatment was further conducted to improve the stability and monodispersity of the VLPs. The HPV6/11 VLPs were identified by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), mass spectrum (MS) and dynamic light scattering (DLS), and were evaluated for their immunogenicity in both mice and cynomolgus monkeys. The results showed that the HPV6/11 L1 proteins were correctly expressed and assembled into HPV6/11 VLPs, and the HPV6/11 VLPs formulated with aluminum phosphate induced vigorous production of specific neutralizing antibodies against HPV6/11 VLPs in mice and cynomolgus monkeys. These data indicated that the Hansenula polymorpha-derived HPV6/11 VLPs could be formulated into a bivalent vaccine used in prevention of CA.

Human papillomavirus vaccination and the role of herd effects in future cancer control planning: a review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine herd effects are the indirect protection that vaccinated persons provide to those who remain susceptible to infection, due to the reduced transmission of infections. Herd effects have been an important part of the discourse on how to best implement human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and prevent HPV-related diseases.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the theory of HPV vaccine herd effects derived from mathematical models, give an account of observed HPV vaccine herd effects worldwide, and examine the implications of vaccine herd effects for future cervical cancer screening efforts.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

HPV vaccine herd effects improve the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating preadolescent girls, but contribute to making gender-neutral vaccination less economically efficient. Vaccination coverage and sexual mixing patterns by age are strong determinants of herd effects. Many countries worldwide are starting to observe reductions in HPV-related outcomes likely attributable to herd effects, most notably declining anogenital warts in young men, and declining HPV-16/18 infection prevalence in young unvaccinated women. Policy makers making recommendations for cervical cancer screening will have to consider HPV vaccination coverage and herd effects, as these will affect the positive predictive value of screening and the risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated women.

Concurrency of partnerships, consistency with data, and control of sexually transmitted infections

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a globally increasing public health problem. Mathematical models, carefully matched to available epidemiological and behavioural data, have an important role to play in predicting the action of control measures. Here, we explore the effect of concurrent sexual partnerships on the control of a generic STI with susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Concurrency refers to being in more than one sexual partnership at the same time, and is difficult to measure accurately. We assess the impact of concurrency through the development of three nested pair-formation models: one where infection can only be transmitted via stable sexual partnerships, one where infection can also be transmitted via casual partnerships between single individuals, and one where those individuals in stable partnerships can also acquire infection from casual partnerships. For each model, we include the action of vaccination before sexual debut to inform about the ability to control. As expected, for a fixed transmission rate, concurrency increases both the endemic prevalence of infection and critical level of vaccination required to eliminate the disease significantly. However, when the transmission rate is scaled to maintain a fixed endemic prevalence across models, concurrency has a far smaller impact upon the critical level of vaccination required. Further, when we also constrain the models to have a fixed number of new partnerships over time (both long-term and casual), then increasing concurrency can slightly decrease the critical level of vaccination. These results highlight that accurate measures and models of concurrency may not always be needed for reliable forecasts when models are closely matched to prevalence data. We find that, while increases in concurrency within a population are likely to generate public-health problems, the inclusion of concurrency may be unnecessary when constructing models to determine the efficacy of the control of STIs by vaccination.

Fraction of high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesions attributable to genotypes targeted by a nonavalent HPV vaccine in Galicia, Spain

Background

Human papillomavirus (HPV) bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines have been widely implemented in worldwide organized immunization programs. A nonavalent HPV vaccine is now available in several countries. The objective was to describe the fraction of squamous non-invasive high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesions attributable to genotypes targeted by bi-quadrivalent vaccines and by nonavalent vaccine according to age and diagnosis in women living in the city of Vigo (Galicia, Spain).

Methods

Cervical scrapings (2009–2014) of women with histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2, n = 145) and grade 3-carcinoma in situ (CIN3-CIS, n = 244) were tested with Linear Array HPV Genotyping test (Roche diagnostics, Mannheim, Germany). Hierarchical estimation of the fraction attributable to HPV 16/18 or HPV 31/33/45/52/58 detected alone or in combination was calculated. Absolute additional fraction attributable to genotypes targeted by nonavalent vaccine compared to genotypes targeted by bi-quadrivalent vaccines was calculated as the increment of attributable cases with respect to all studied cases. Age group 1, 2 and 3 included women 18 to 34, 35–44 and ≥45 years old, respectively. EPIDAT 3.1 was used.

Results

Fraction attributable to genotypes targeted by bi-quadrivalent vaccines was 59% CIN2 vs. 69% CIN3-CIS (p < 0.001). It was 63/51/50% of CIN2 and 78/66/45% of CIN3-CIS in age group 1, 2, 3, respectively. Fraction attributable to genotypes targeted by nonavalent vaccine was 86% CIN2 and 86% CIN3-CIS. It was 87/91/75% of CIN2 and 90/86/76% of CIN3-CIS in age group 1, 2, 3, respectively. Fraction attributable to genotypes targeted by these vaccines tended to decrease as age increased (p-trend <0.05). Globally, absolute additional attributable fraction was 16%, 26% and 29% in age group 1, 2 and 3, respectively (p < 0.005).

Conclusions

Absolute additional fraction of CIN2 and CIN3-CIS attributable to genotypes targeted by nonavalent vaccine was observed in women of any age, especially in those over 35 years old.

Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness

OBJECTIVE

Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) multi-site model (genital and one extragenital site).

METHODS

We developed a uni-site and a multi-site deterministic HPV transmission model, assuming natural immunity was either site-specific or systemic. Both models were calibrated to genital HPV16 prevalence (5%-7.5%), whilst the multi-site model was calibrated to HPV16 prevalence representative of oral (0%-1%) and anal (1%-7.5%) sites. For each model, we identified 2500 parameter sets that fit endemic genital and extragenital prevalences within pre-specified target ranges. In the Base-case analysis, vaccination was girls-only with 40% coverage. Vaccine efficacy was 100% for all sites with lifetime protection. The outcome was the relative reduction in genital HPV16 prevalence among women at post-vaccination equilibrium (RRprev). RRprev was stratified by extragenital prevalence pre-vaccination.

RESULTS

Under assumptions of site-specific immunity, RRprev with the multi-site model was generally greater than with the uni-site model. Differences between the uni-site and multi-site models were greater when transmission from the extragenital site to the genital site was high. Under assumptions of systemic immunity, the multi-site and uni-site models yielded similar RRprev in the scenario without immunity after extragenital infection. In the scenario with systemic immunity after extragenital infection, the multi-site model yielded lower predictions of RRprev than the uni-site model.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling genital-site only transmission may overestimate vaccination impact if extragenital infections contribute to systemic natural immunity or underestimate vaccination impact if a high proportion of genital infections originate from extragenital infections. Under current understanding of heterosexual HPV transmission and immunity, a substantial bias from using uni-site models in predicting vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV infection is unlikely to occur.

Systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses for combinations of prevention strategies against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection: a general trend

BACKGROUND

Due to the arrival of multi-valent HPV vaccines, it is more and more important to have a better understanding of the relationship between vaccination and screening programmes. This review aimed to: (1) collect published evidence on the cost-effectiveness profile of different HPV prevention strategies and, in particular, those combining vaccination with changes in screening practices; (2) explore the cost-effectiveness of alternative preventive strategies based on screening and vaccination.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted in order to identify the relevant studies regarding the cost-effectiveness of prevention strategies against HPV infection. Analysis comparing the modelling approaches between studies was made along with an assessment of the magnitude of impact of several factors on the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies.

RESULTS

A total of 18 papers were quantitatively summarised within the narrative. A high degree of heterogeneity was found in terms of how HPV prevention strategies have been assessed in terms of their economic and epidemiological impact, with variation in screening practice and valence of HPV vaccination found to have large implications in terms of cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This review demonstrated synergies between screening and vaccination. New prevention strategies involving multi-valence vaccination, HPV DNA test screening, delayed commencement and frequency of screening could be implemented in the future. Strategies implemented in the future should be chosen with care, and informed knowledge of the potential impact of all possible prevention strategies. Highlighted in this review is the difficulty in assessing multiple strategies. Appropriate modelling techniques will need to be utilised to assess the most cost-effective strategies.

Changing global policy to deliver safe, equitable, and affordable care for women's cancers

Breast and cervical cancer are major threats to the health of women globally, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Radical progress to close the global cancer divide for women requires not only evidence-based policy making, but also broad multisectoral collaboration that capitalises on recent progress in the associated domains of women's health and innovative public health approaches to cancer care and control. Such multisectoral collaboration can serve to build health systems for cancer, and more broadly for primary care, surgery, and pathology. This Series paper explores the global health and public policy landscapes that intersect with women's health and global cancer control, with new approaches to bringing policy to action. Cancer is a major global social and political priority, and women's cancers are not only a tractable socioeconomic policy target in themselves, but also an important Trojan horse to drive improved cancer control and care.

Cervical cancer incidence in British Columbia: Predicting effects of changes from Pap to human papillomavirus screening and of changes in screening participation

Objectives To estimate the impact of increased participation in screening, and of the proposed change from Pap to human papillomavirus screening on the incidence of cervical cancer in British Columbia. Methods For invasive cervical cancer cases diagnosed in British Columbia between 2002 and 2011, data were extracted on age and cancer morphology from the British Columbia Cancer Registry, and Pap screening history was obtained from the British Columbia Cervical Cancer Screening Program database. Only screening performed two to seven years prior to diagnosis was assumed to reduce subsequent risk of cancer. Results from randomized trials of human papillomavirus versus cytology screening and population based estimates of cytology screening were used to estimate the effect of a change in screening test and increases in participation. Results Between 2002 and 2011, there were 1663 cases of cervical cancer reported; 660 (367 squamous and 293 non-squamous) were eligible and screened two to seven years prior to diagnosis. The predicted reduction by changing to human papillomavirus screening was 363 (95% confidence interval = 124-496) representing 22% of all cases. If 50% of subjects not screened two to seven years prior had undergone Pap screening, it is projected that a further 268 cases (16%) could have been prevented; if they had undergone human papillomavirus screening, a further 365 cases (22%) could have been prevented. Conclusions For many women who develop cervical cancer, primary human papillomavirus testing could have substantially reduced their cancer risk. Human papillomavirus rather than Pap testing would further increase the gains from any increases in population screening participation.

Oral and oropharyngeal cancer and the role of sexual behaviour: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review identified and evaluated the evidence for the role of sexual behaviours in the development of oropharyngeal cancers (OPCs) and oral cavity cancers (OCCs).

METHODS

Following the PRISMA guidelines, we identified observational and interventional studies reporting associations between several different sexual behaviours and OPC or OCC. Study quality was assessed independently by two reviewers using a validated scoring system.

RESULTS

From 513 papers identified, 21, reporting on 20 studies, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Two cohort studies were rated as moderate quality. The 18 case-control studies were rated as weak; nine comparing people with OPC or OCC to people without cancer, eight comparing HPV-positive to HPV-negative cancer patients and one comparing OPCs to other head and neck cancers. One study was a pooled analysis of seven of the included studies with some additional information. Twelve sexual behaviours were assessed and 69 associations reported. The studies differed in the comparisons made, the sexual behaviours assessed, and how these were reported and categorized, so no quantitative meta-analyses were appropriate. Most studies combined OPC and OCC. Several significantly increased risks were seen with a high number of lifetime sexual partners (nine studies) and with the practice of oral sex (five studies), although two studies found a significant negative association with OCC and ever performing oral sex. Two cohort studies of men and women in homosexual relationships found increases in oral cancer risk, and a cohort study of men married to women who had a history of cervical cancer also showed an increased risk of oral cancers. Results for other sexual behaviours were limited and inconsistent, and these included the following: younger age at first sexual intercourse, number of lifetime oral sex partners, the practice of oral-anal sex, the number of oral-anal sex partners, and ever performing anal sex. Only one study assessed casual sex, never or rare use of a condom and having a sexual partner with a history of genital warts, finding significant associations in the two former behaviours.

CONCLUSION

The current evidence for sexual behaviours being risk factors for oral and oropharyngeal cancer is limited and inconsistent. Evidence suggests that the number of sexual partners and performing oral sex are associated with a greater risk. Furthermore men whose partners have had cervical cancer may have an increased risk. More studies looking at OPC specifically will be useful to determine whether these behaviours are subsite-selective.

Extending the Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programme to Include Males in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Review of the Cost-Effectiveness Studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Giving the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to females has been shown to be cost-effective in most countries. The epidemiological evidence and economic burden of HPV-related diseases have gradually been shown to be gender neutral. Randomized clinical trials report high efficacy, immunogenicity and safety of the HPV vaccine in males aged 16-26 years. Some pioneering countries extended their HPV vaccination programme to include males, regardless of the cost-effectiveness analysis results. Nevertheless, decision makers need evidence provided by modelling and economic studies to justify the funding of mass vaccination. This systematic review aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of extending the HPV vaccination programme to include males living in high-income countries.

METHODS

A systematic review of the cost-effectiveness analyses of HPV vaccination in males was performed. Data were extracted and analysed using a checklist adapted from the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards Statement.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies and 12 underlying mathematical models were identified. Model filiation showed evolution in time from aggregate models (static and dynamic) to individual-based models. When considering the health outcomes HPV vaccines are licensed for, regardless of modelling approaches and assumptions, extending vaccinations to males is rarely found to be cost-effective in heterosexual populations. Cost-effectiveness ratios become more attractive when all HPV-related diseases are considered and when vaccine coverage in females is below 40%.

CONCLUSION

Targeted vaccination of men who have sex with men (MSM) seems to be the best cost-effectiveness option. The feasibility of this strategy is still an open question, since early identification of this specific population remains difficult.

Global estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination coverage by region and income level: a pooled analysis

BACKGROUND

Since 2006, many countries have implemented publicly funded human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programmes. However, global estimates of the extent and impact of vaccine coverage are still unavailable. We aimed to quantify worldwide cumulative coverage of publicly funded HPV immunisation programmes up to 2014, and the potential impact on future cervical cancer cases and deaths.

METHODS

Between Nov 1 and Dec 22, 2014, we systematically reviewed PubMed, Scopus, and official websites to identify HPV immunisation programmes worldwide, and retrieved age-specific HPV vaccination coverage rates up to October, 2014. To estimate the coverage and number of vaccinated women, retrieved coverage rates were converted into birth-cohort-specific rates, with an imputation algorithm to impute missing data, and applied to global population estimates and cervical cancer projections by country and income level.

FINDINGS

From June, 2006, to October, 2014, 64 countries nationally, four countries subnationally, and 12 overseas territories had implemented HPV immunisation programmes. An estimated 118 million women had been targeted through these programmes, but only 1% were from low-income or lower-middle-income countries. 47 million women (95% CI 39-55 million) received the full course of vaccine, representing a total population coverage of 1·4% (95% CI 1·1-1·6), and 59 million women (48-71 million) had received at least one dose, representing a total population coverage of 1·7% (1·4-2·1). In more developed regions, 33·6% (95% CI 25·9-41·7) of females aged 10-20 years received the full course of vaccine, compared with only 2·7% (1·8-3·6) of females in less developed regions. The impact of the vaccine will be higher in upper-middle-income countries (178 192 averted cases by age 75 years) than in high-income countries (165 033 averted cases), despite the lower number of vaccinated women (13·3 million vs 32·2 million).

INTERPRETATION

Many women from high-income and upper-middle-income countries have been vaccinated against HPV. However, populations with the highest incidence and mortality of disease remain largely unprotected. Rapid roll-out of the vaccine in low-income and middle-income countries might be the only feasible way to narrow present inequalities in cervical cancer burden and prevention.

FUNDING

PATH, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, and Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR).

Current status of human papillomavirus vaccination

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this article, we review the impact of the quadrivalent and bivalent prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines on HPV infection and disease, review alternative vaccine dosing schedules, the vaccination of men and the nine-valent HPV vaccine.

RECENT FINDINGS

HPV vaccines have had dramatic impacts on the prevalence of targeted HPV types (6,11,16 and 18), genital warts and precancerous cervical lesions. Population coverage would be facilitated by adopting two-dose schedules, with recent findings that two-dose schedules in young adolescents are as immunogenic as three doses in young adults. Extension of vaccination to men, particularly for men who have sex with men, could further reduce population prevalence of HPV and provide direct protection to men against genital warts and anal, penile and oropharyngeal cancers. The nine-valent HPV vaccine has demonstrated equivalent protection against the four types in the quadrivalent vaccine and high efficacy against the next five commonest causes of cervical cancer (HPV types 31,33,45,52 and 58). If cost-effective, it may extend the spectrum of protection against cervical cancer available through vaccination.

SUMMARY

HPV vaccination is an effective strategy for reducing the burden of HPV-related disease. New schedules, target populations and vaccines promise to expand this potential further.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness profile of a universal vaccination programme with a nine-valent HPV vaccine in Austria

BACKGROUND

HPV is a major cancer-causing factor in both sexes in the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus, penis, oropharynx as well as the causal factor in other diseases such as genital warts and recurrent respiratory papillomatis. In the context of the arrival of a nonavalent HPV vaccine (6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58), this analysis aims to estimate the public health impact and the incremental cost-effectiveness of a universal (girls and boys) vaccination program with a nonavalent HPV vaccine as compared to the current universal vaccination program with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine (6/11/16/18), in Austria.

METHOD

A dynamic transmission model including a wide range of health and cost outcomes related to cervical, anal, vulvar, vaginal diseases and genital warts was calibrated to Austrian epidemiological data. The clinical impact due to the 5 new types was included for cervical and anal diseases outcomes only. In the base case, a two-dose schedule, lifelong vaccine type-specific protection and a vaccination coverage rate of 60% and 40% for girls and boys respectively for the 9-year old cohorts were assumed. A cost-effectiveness threshold of €30,000/QALY-gained was considered.

RESULTS

Universal vaccination with the nonavalent vaccine was shown to reduce the incidence of HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58 -related cervical cancer by 92%, the related CIN2/3 cases by 96% and anal cancer by 83% and 76% respectively in females and males after 100 years, relative to 75%, 76%, 80% and 74% with the quadrivalent vaccine, respectively. Furthermore, the nonavalent vaccine was projected to prevent an additional 14,893 cases of CIN2/3 and 2544 cases of cervical cancer, over 100 years. Depending on the vaccine price, the strategy was shown to be from cost-saving to cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

The present evaluation showed that vaccinating 60% of girls and 40% of boys aged 9 in Austria with a 9-valent vaccine will substantially reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, CIN and anal cancer compared to the existing strategy. The vaccination strategies performed with the 9-valent vaccine in the current study were all found to be cost-effective compared to the current quadrivalent vaccination strategy by considering a cost-effectiveness threshold of 30,000€/QALY gained.

HPV vaccination in boys and men

Human papillomaviruses are DNA viruses that infect skin or mucosal cells. In the genital tract HPV (especially types 6 and 11) cause genital warts, the commonest viral sexually transmitted disease. At least 13 of the more than 100 known HPV genotypes are oncogenic "high-risk" genotypes. The 2 most common of these (genotypes 16 and 18) cause approximately 70% of all cervical cancers. Oncogenic HPVs particularly HPV 16 are associated with other anogenital cancers, anus, vagina, vulva and penis, and cancers of the head and neck and current estimates are that 5.2% of all cancers are HPV associated. In industrialised countries cervical cancer is controlled by secondary intervention other HPV associated malignancies are increasing in incidence and the burden of HPV associated disease in men is now comparable to that in women in economically developed countries. Randomized control trials with the quadrivalent HPV VLP vaccine demonstrate robust antibody responses and high efficacy against genital warts anal precancers in men. Few countries have recommended male vaccination on the basis that this is not cost effective. However gender-neutral vaccination has been recommended in the USA, Canada, Austria, and Australia. Careful cost effective modeling has preceded these decisions showing that when the burden of disease in men is included in the models then, depending upon coverage, vaccine price, and other factors male vaccination can become cost effective.

Impact and Cost-effectiveness of 3 Doses of 9-Valent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Among US Females Previously Vaccinated With 4-Valent HPV Vaccine

BACKGROUND

We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of providing 3-doses of nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (9vHPV) to females aged 13-18 years who had previously completed a series of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV), a strategy we refer to as "additional 9vHPV vaccination."

METHODS

We used 2 distinct models: (1) the simplified model, which is among the most basic of the published dynamic HPV models, and (2) the US HPV-ADVISE model, a complex, stochastic, individual-based transmission-dynamic model.

RESULTS

When assuming no 4vHPV cross-protection, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained by additional 9vHPV vaccination was $146 200 in the simplified model and $108 200 in the US HPV-ADVISE model ($191 800 when assuming 4vHPV cross-protection). In 1-way sensitivity analyses in the scenario of no 4vHPV cross-protection, the simplified model results ranged from $70 300 to $182 000, and the US HPV-ADVISE model results ranged from $97 600 to $118 900.

CONCLUSIONS

The average cost per QALY gained by additional 9vHPV vaccination exceeded $100 000 in both models. However, the results varied considerably in sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Additional 9vHPV vaccination is likely not as efficient as many other potential HPV vaccination strategies, such as increasing primary 9vHPV vaccine coverage.

Clinical cancer chemoprevention: From the hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine to the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine

Approximately 2 million new cancer cases are attributed to infectious agents each year worldwide. Vaccines for the hepatitis B virus (HBV), a risk factor of hepatocellular cancer, and human papillomavirus (HPV), a risk factor of cervical cancer, are considered major successes in clinical chemoprevention of cancer. In Taiwan, the first evidence of cancer prevention through vaccinations was provided by HBV vaccination data in infants. The Taiwanese HBV vaccination program has since become a model immunization schedule for newborns worldwide. Persistent infection with high-risk HPV is generally accepted as prerequisite for cervical cancer diagnosis; however, cervical cancer is a rare complication of HPV infections. This is due to the fact that such infections tend to be transient. The safety and efficacy of both available HPV quadrivalent vaccine and bivalent vaccine are not in doubt at the present time. Until a human cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine becomes available, simple hygienic practices, such as hand washing, can prevent CMV infection both before and during pregnancy. Each country should establish her official guidelines regarding which vaccines should be used to treat various conditions, the target population (i.e., universal or limited to a selected population), and the immunization schedules. After a vaccine is recommended, decisions regarding reimbursement by the public health care fund are evaluated. The guidelines become part of the immunization schedule, which is updated annually and published in the official bulletin. In conclusion, both HBV and HPV vaccines are considered major successes in the chemoprevention of cancer.

HPV vaccination: acceptance and influencing factors among young men in Germany

AIMS

This study aims to determine the factors that influence the acceptance of the HPV vaccination among German males.

PATIENT & METHODS

In 2014, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in men aged 15-25 years. A questionnaire was mailed to male trainees of the Bayerische Motorenwerke AG (BMW) insured at the BMW health insurance company.

RESULTS

The response rate was 10.8%. Of the 378 included men, 74.1% would agree to receive HPV vaccination. Most men primarily consult their physician for health-related topics, but 92.9% had never been informed about HPV infection, risk factors and prevention methods by their doctor.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate a high acceptance of male HPV vaccination. Education about HPV infection is low and should be intensified by medical professionals.

Evaluation of health-related quality of life for hypothesized medical states associated with cervical cancer

BACKGROUND

When evaluating health-economics for cervical cancer prevention policies in Japan, it is important to use Japanese value settings. This study aimed to obtain preference-based measures (preference measures) for hypothesized health states among healthy Japanese women, and to examine differences between the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) and standard gamble (SG) instruments.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The investigation was performed among female students at a nursing university. We used written hypothetical scenarios describing three grades of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and eight stages of cervical cancer, both at diagnosis and after medical intervention. Preference measures were evaluated using both EQ-5D and SG.

RESULTS

We received responses from 136 women. The mean number of respondents per stage was 24.6 (SD: 2.7). At diagnosis, average EQ-5D scores for CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, IA1, IA2, IB1, IB2, IIA, IIB, III, and IV stages were 0.84 (0.14), 0.78 (0.12), 0.73 (0.10), 0.78 (0.12), 0.72 (0.12), 0.63 (0.13), 0.64 (0.12), 0.68 (0.08), 0.62 (0.13), 0.55 (0.21), and 0.18 (0.24), respectively. Using one-way analysis of variance with the Tukey-Kramer method for multiple comparisons (each stage vs. CIN1), we found significant differences for IB1 and more advanced stages (p<0.05). After medical intervention, corresponding EQ-5D scores were 0.84 (0.12), 0.81 (0.12), 0.84 (0.12), 0.80 (0.15), 0.78 (0.11), 0.64 (0.15), 0.63 (0.15), 0.71 (0.15), 0.50 (0.17), 0.52 (0.17), 0.21 (0.28). The multiple comparisons identified significant differences for IB1 and more advanced stages, excepting IIA (p<0.05). SG evaluations were more variable and relatively higher than EQ-5D evaluations.

CONCLUSIONS

We obtained preference measures for three grades of CIN1-3 and eight stages of cervical cancer. In combination with appropriate sensitivity analyses, these preference measures will provide a basis for an economic evaluation of cervical cancer prevention in Japan. We suggest that EQ-5D is appropriate for cost-utility analysis of this topic.

HPV prophylactic vaccines: lessons learned from 10 years experience

When HPV vaccines were registered in 2006/2007, it was unclear whether these new and type-specific prophylactic vaccines would be accepted by the community for cancer prevention. With an optimal vaccination age of early adolescence, three vaccine doses required, HPV a sexually transmitted infection, and secondary prevention already available in the form of cervical screening, considerable potential challenges were faced. At the time of licensing, vaccine efficacy in males and duration of immunity were not yet unknown. Almost a decade later, with over 230 million doses of the vaccines distributed worldwide and national HPV vaccination programs in place in many countries, it is timely to reflect on current knowledge about the vaccines and some of the lessons learned during implementation.

Evaluation of the immunogenicity of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine using 2 versus 3 doses at month 21: An epidemiological surveillance mechanism for alternate vaccination schemes

The cost of HPV vaccines and the need for 3 doses remains a barrier for their inclusion in routine vaccination schedules for girls in low and middle income countries. In a non-inferiority study, we aimed to compare the immunogenicity of a standard 3 doses and a 2 doses schedule. We enrolled 450 participants in an open-label non-randomized clinical trial to evaluate the immunogenicity induced at different ages by the licensed HPV6/11/16/18 quadrivalent vaccine in a 2 doses schedule (0-6 months, n = 150 girls aged 9-10 y) and 3 doses schedule (0, 2, and 6 months; n = 150 girls aged 9-10 y and n=150 women aged 18 to 24 years). To assess the antibody response, blood samples were obtained at Month 7 and 21 after the first vaccination from participants in all study groups. cLIA testing was performed at Merck Research Laboratories. Antibody levels were expressed as milli-Merck units (mMU) per ml. Primary outcome was non-inferiority (95% CI, lower bound >0.5) of the geometric mean titers (GMT) ratios for HPV6, HPV11, HPV16 and HPV18 antibodies 7 and 21 months after the first dose among girls receiving 2 doses compared with young women and girls receiving 3 doses. All vaccinees were seropositive for both HPV16 and HPV18 antibodies at month 7. At month 21, 98.5 and 56.6% of women 18-24 y old were seropositive for HPV16 and 18, respectively. For girls in the three doses group, seropositivity rates were 99.3 and 86.3% for HPV16 and 18, respectively. For girls in the two doses group rates were 99.3 and 70.2% for HPV16 and 18, respectively. The two doses schedule was non-inferior compared to the 3 doses schedule in same-age girls and to the group of adult women after 21 months of the first vaccine dose. Our results are in agreement with similar trials evaluating the immune response of a 2 doses schedule of both HPV vaccines, supporting the recent WHO recommendation as well as the Mexican policy to incorporate the 2 doses schedule for girls aged 9-11 y.