A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination

COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.

A modelled evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on breast, bowel, and cervical cancer screening programmes in Australia

Australia introduced COVID-19 infection prevention and control measures in early 2020. To help prepare health services, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a modelled evaluation of the impact of disruptions to population breast, bowel, and cervical cancer screening programmes on cancer outcomes and cancer services. We used the Policy1 modelling platforms to predict outcomes for potential disruptions to cancer screening participation, covering periods of 3, 6, 9, and 12 mo. We estimated missed screens, clinical outcomes (cancer incidence, tumour staging), and various diagnostic service impacts. We found that a 12-mo screening disruption would reduce breast cancer diagnoses (9.3% population-level reduction over 2020-2021) and colorectal cancer (up to 12.1% reduction over 2020-21), and increase cervical cancer diagnoses (up to 3.6% over 2020-2022), with upstaging expected for these cancer types (2, 1.4, and 6.8% for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers, respectively). Findings for 6-12-mo disruption scenarios illustrate that maintaining screening participation is critical to preventing an increase in the burden of cancer at a population level. We provide programme-specific insights into which outcomes are expected to change, when changes are likely to become apparent, and likely downstream impacts. This evaluation provided evidence to guide decision-making for screening programmes and emphasises the ongoing benefits of maintaining screening in the face of potential future disruptions.

Female reproductive and hormonal factors and lung cancer mortality among never-smokers: A prospective cohort study of 287 408 Chinese women

There is growing, but inconsistent evidence suggesting oestrogen may play a key role in lung cancer development, especially among never-smoking women for whom lung cancer risk factors remain largely elusive. Using the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large-scale prospective cohort with 302 510 women aged 30 to 79 years recruited from 10 regions in China during 2004 to 2008, we assessed the risk of lung cancer death among self-reported never-smoking women who were cancer-free at baseline, in relation to age at menarche, age at menopause, time since menopause, prior use of oral contraceptives (OCP), number of livebirths, breastfeeding and age at first livebirth. Women were followed up to December 31, 2016 with linkage to mortality data. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for key confounders including several socio-demographic, environmental and lifestyle factors. Among 287 408 never-smoking women, 814 died from lung cancer with a median follow-up of 10.3 years. Women who had used OCP within 15 years prior to baseline had a significantly higher hazard of lung cancer death compared with never-users: HR = 1.85 (95% CI: 1.14-3.00) and risk increased by 6% with each additional year of use: HR = 1.06 (1.01-1.10). Among parous women, the hazard of lung cancer death increased by 13% with each single livebirth: HR = 1.13 (1.05-1.23); and among post-menopausal women, the risk increased by 2% with each year since menopause: HR = 1.02 (1.01-1.04). These results suggest that reproductive factors which were proxies for lower endogenous oestrogen level, for example, longer duration of OCP use, could play a role in lung cancer development.

Exploring monitoring strategies for population surveillance of HPV vaccine impact using primary HPV screening

Australia's cervical screening program transitioned from cytology to HPV-testing with genotyping for HPV16/18 in Dec'2017. We investigated whether program data could be used to monitor HPV vaccination program impact (commenced in 2007) on HPV16/18 prevalence and compared estimates with pre-vaccination benchmark prevalence. Pre-vaccination samples (2005-2008) (n = 1933; WHINURS), from 25 to 64-year-old women had been previously analysed with Linear Array (LA). Post-vaccination samples (2013-2014) (n = 2989; Compass pilot), from 25 to 64-year-old women, were analysed by cobas 4800 (cobas), and by LA for historical comparability. Age standardised pre-vaccination HPV16/18 prevalence was 4.85% (95%CI:3.81-5.89) by LA; post-vaccination estimates were 1.67% (95%CI:1.21-2.13%) by LA, 1.49% (95%CI:1.05-1.93%) by cobas, and 1.63% (95%CI:1.17-2.08%) for cobas and LA testing of non-16/18 cobas positives (cobas/LA). Age-standardised pre-vaccination oncogenic HPV prevalence was 15.70% (95%CI:13.79-17.60%) by LA; post-vaccination estimates were 9.06% (95%CI:8.02-10.09%) by LA, 8.47% (95%CI:7.47-9.47%) by cobas and cobas/LA. Standardised rate ratios between post-vs. pre-vaccination rates were significantly different for HPV16/18, non-16/18 HPV and oncogenic HPV: 0.34 (95%CI:0.23-0.50), 0.68 (95%CI:0.55-0.84) and 0.58 (95%CI:0.48-0.69), respectively. Additional strategies (LA for all cobas positives; combined cobas and LA results on all samples) had similar results. If a single method is applied consistently, it will provide important data on relative changes in HPV prevalence following vaccination.

Abstract P2-10-05: The estimated impact of COVID-19 on population breast cancer screening outcomes, and options for risk-based recovery

OBJECTIVES AND RATIONALE Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on cancer screening programs and related outcomes can help health services prepare for potential delays in diagnoses and different demands on treatment services and plan for best approaches to recovery. Simulation modelling enables estimation of outcomes for a range of scenarios. In this study, we estimate the impact of various disruptions and recovery strategies for the Australian biennial mammographic breast screening program (BreastScreen). METHOD Policy1-Breast is a continuous-time, multiple-cohort micro-simulation model that simulates the whole Australian female population, incorporating breast cancer risk and natural history, breast density, menopause, hormone therapy use and breast cancer screening. Firstly, in the early stages of the COVID pandemic we used Policy1-Breast to evaluate how 3, 6, 9 and 12-month pauses to BreastScreen would impact on population-level breast cancer diagnoses, tumour staging, and breast cancer survival, compared to business-as-usual (BAU) outcomes. Secondly, to explore options for recovery after an actual one-month screening pause in April 2020, we evaluated a range of assumed throughput levels following screening resumption (50% or 80% up to December, then 100% to 120% from Jan 2021), comparing various protocols where specific sub-groups of clients were prioritised for screening during the recovery period. Outcomes are reported for the target age range for the BreastScreen program (50-74 years). RESULTS For 3- to 12-month pauses, we estimated a slight reduction in 5-year survival following diagnosis for women directly affected by a pause, but no discernible changes to population-level breast cancer mortality rates up to 2023. We estimated marked fluctuations in population rates of invasive breast cancer diagnoses with a 10% increase in cancer diagnoses between 2020-2021 and 2022-2023. For a 12-month pause to screening we estimate that population-level breast cancers would increase in size (with an additional 4% >15mm at diagnosis) and be more likely to involve the nodes (increasing from 26% to 30% of all cancers). We estimate that median screening intervals during 2020-2021 would increase from 104 weeks under BAU up to 130 weeks with a 12-month pause, and BreastScreen recall rates and false positive recall rates would fluctuate markedly over time. For the second evaluation of a one-month pause followed by various throughput and prioritisation scenarios, we estimated that screen-detected cancer rates would vary markedly with throughput but interval cancer rates would not, leading to fluctuations in program sensitivity of up to 6%. Reflecting the periodic nature of screening participation, we estimated the extent to which longer-term future screening participation rates are expected echo the peaks and troughs in participation due to the impacts of the COVID pandemic in 2020. We estimate that for a given throughput assumption, client prioritisation could lead to different rescreening rates, screening intervals, and time required for prioritisation protocols, with little change to cancer outcomes. CONCLUSION These modelled evaluations estimate short and longer-term effects of COVID-19 on the impact of population breast cancer screening in Australia. The estimated changes in breast cancer rates and characteristics would be expected to have a flow-on effect on the demand for treatment services in terms of throughput and case-mix. Preparing for such outcomes is critical given that treatment services are also directly impacted by the pandemic. The modelled outcomes are likely to be relevant to other high-income settings with established population breast cancer screening programs.

Citation Format: Pietro Procopio, Sabine Deij, Louiza S Velentzis, Amanda Tattam, Lara Petelin, Carolyn Nickson. The estimated impact of COVID-19 on population breast cancer screening outcomes, and options for risk-based recovery [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-10-05.

BreastScreen Australia national data by factors of interest for risk-based screening: routinely reported data and opportunities for enhancement

OBJECTIVE

There is growing interest in more risk-based approaches to breast cancer screening in Australia. This would require more detailed reporting of BreastScreen data for factors of interest in the assessment and monitoring of risk-based screening. This review assesses the current and potential availability and reporting of BreastScreen data for this purpose.

METHODS

We systematically searched governmental BreastScreen reports and peer-reviewed literature to assess current and potential availability of outcomes for predetermined factors including breast cancer risk factors and factors important for implementing, monitoring or evaluating risk-based screening. Outcomes evaluated were BreastScreen Performance Indicators routinely included in BreastScreen Australia monitoring reports, and key tumour characteristics.

RESULTS

All outcomes were reported annually by age group, except for tumour hormone receptor status, nodal involvement and grade. Screening participation was reported nationally for many factors important for risk-based screening; other reporting was ad hoc or unavailable.

CONCLUSIONS

There is potential to build on BreastScreen's existing high-quality national data collection and reporting systems to inform and support risk-based breast screening. Implications for public health: Enhanced BreastScreen data collection and reporting would improve the evidence base and support evaluation of risk-based screening and improve the detail available for benchmarking any future changes to the program.

The impact of HPV vaccination beyond cancer prevention: effect on pregnancy outcomes

While the benefits of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination relating to cervical cancer prevention have been widely documented, recent published evidence is suggestive of an impact on adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) in vaccinated mothers and their infants, including a reduction in rates of preterm births and small for gestational age infants. In this review, we examine this evidence and the possible mechanisms by which HPV vaccination may prevent these APOs. Large-scale studies linking HPV vaccination status with birth registries are needed to confirm these results. Potential confounding factors to consider in future analyses include other risk factors for APOs, and historical changes in both the management of cervical precancerous lesions and prevention of APOs. If confirmed, these additional benefits of HPV vaccination in reducing APO rates will be of global significance, due to the substantial health, social and economic costs associated with APOs, strengthening the case for worldwide HPV immunization.

704The preventable future burden of cancer in Australia

Background

Estimates of the future burden of invasive cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention.

Methods

We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from contemporary national health surveys and calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) and 95% confidence intervals, using advanced methods accounting for competing risk of death.

Results

Current levels of past and current smoking explain 36.1% (95%CI 33.2%-38.9%), body fatness 13.6% (10.9%-16.2%) and alcohol consumption exceeding two drinks/day 2.3% (1.0%-3.6%) of cancers causally related to these exposures, corresponding to 210,000, 81,300 and 14,800 cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. Ever smoking is the leading modifiable cause of lung (82.1%), bladder (49.8%), oesophageal (42.8%), liver (39.8%), head and neck (35.6%), and pancreatic (21.3%) cancer burden. Body fatness is the leading modifiable cause of corpus uteri (42.5%), gastric cardia (33.6%), renal cell (29.1%), thyroid (20.1%), colorectal (12.6%) and postmenopausal breast (12.6%) cancer burden. The absolute numbers of cancers in the next 10 years attributable to smoking are highest for lung cancer (114,000). The numbers of cancers attributable to body fatness and alcohol are highest for colorectal cancer (23,000 and 9,900, respectively).

Conclusions

More reliable advanced methods demonstrate large proportions and numbers of cancers are preventable by modifying behaviours.

Key messages

Ever smoking and body fatness are the leading causes of preventable future burden of causally related cancers in Australia.

Trends in Prescribing Menopausal Hormone Therapy and Bisphosphonates in Australia and Manitoba, Canada and Adherence to Recommendations

Background: Recommendations for using menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and bisphosphonates for postmenopausal osteoporosis management have changed over time. After the release of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial results in 2002, new evidence on risks and benefits of MHT became available, and newer guidelines generally specify that MHT should not be prescribed for prevention of chronic disease, including osteoporosis. This raises the question of whether bisphosphonate prescribing changed over time to compensate for the decrease in MHT use. Materials and Methods: We examined trends in dispensed prescriptions in Australia (national) and Canada (province of Manitoba) in relation to prescribing recommendations. Administrative data were used to describe dispensing patterns and changes for persons of all ages from 1996 to 2008, and for women aged 50 to ≥80 years from 2003 to 2008 in Australia and 1996 to 2008 in Canada. Results: In both geographic settings, MHT dispensing increased 1996-2001, peaked in 2001, and declined substantially thereafter (67% reduction in MHT prescriptions for Australia; 64% reduction for Manitoba, Canada to 2008). From 2003 to 2008, the number of MHT prescriptions declined among all age groups in both settings, with the highest declines among women in their 50s. Concurrently, bisphosphonate dispensing increased until 2005 (2001-2005: 260% increase in the number of prescriptions in Australia; 125% increase in Manitoba) and stabilized thereafter, in both settings. Annual bisphosphonate dispensing rates increased 4.1-10.9% for women in their 70s and 80s in Australia and Manitoba during the period studied. Conclusions: Based on dispensed prescriptions data, more recent guidelines for MHT and bisphosphonates use for postmenopausal osteoporosis, which were updated during the study period (and are still consistent with the current guidelines), appear to have been broadly adhered to in both settings.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making.

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General modelling guidelines are insufficient for reporting HPV models.

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HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a quality-based framework for HPV models.

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The framework has seven domains consisting of distinct reporting standards.

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HPV-FRAME aims to promote transparency and improve the quality in reporting.

Recurrent disease after treatment for cervical pre-cancer: determining whether prophylactic HPV vaccination could play a role in prevention of secondary lesions

Existing modalities can effectively treat high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) but around 7% of treated women will develop recurrence of CIN grade 2 or above within 2 years of treatment. Post-treatment surveillance is therefore required to detect residual or recurrent disease. Since the implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs in high-income countries, significant reductions in high-grade CIN have been recorded in vaccinated cohorts who were predominantly HPV-naïve at vaccination. There is still debate as to the extent of potential benefit from vaccination for women previously infected with HPV, given that HPV incidence in women falls with age and previously cleared infection provides at least some protection against reinfection. Whilst vaccination-induced antibodies could prevent type-specific new infections, it is unclear whether vaccination could also prevent reactivation of latent, previously acquired infection and subsequent disease. A review of the available evidence suggests a potential reduction in risk of recurrent disease if women diagnosed and treated for CIN are offered prophylactic vaccines. New modeled analyses and, ideally, a prospectively designed randomized controlled trial in women treated and then randomized to vaccination or placebo would provide much-needed additional evidence to support the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of offering vaccination to women after treatment for CIN.

The preventable burden of endometrial and ovarian cancers in Australia: A pooled cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Evidence on the endometrial and ovarian cancer burden preventable through modifications to current causal behavioural and hormonal exposures is limited. Whether the burden differs by population subgroup is unknown.

METHODS

We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies to national cancer and death registries, and quantified exposure-cancer associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We then calculated Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups.

RESULTS

During a median 4.9 years follow-up, 510 incident endometrial and 303 ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Overweight and obesity explained 41.9% (95% CI 32.3-50.1) of the endometrial cancer burden and obesity alone 34.5% (95% CI 27.5-40.9). This translates to 12,800 and 10,500 endometrial cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. The body fatness-related endometrial cancer burden was highest (49-87%) among women with diabetes, living remotely, of older age, lower socio-economic status or educational attainment and born in Australia. Never use of oral contraceptives (OCs) explained 8.1% (95% CI 1.8-14.1) or 2500 endometrial cancers. A higher BMI and current long-term MHT use increased, and long-term OC use decreased, the risk of ovarian cancer, but the burden attributable to overweight, obesity or exogenous hormonal factors was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess body fatness, a trait that is of high and increasing prevalence globally, is responsible for a large proportion of the endometrial cancer burden, indicating the need for effective strategies to reduce adiposity.

Prospective validation of the NCI Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (Gail Model) on 40,000 Australian women

Background

There is a growing interest in delivering more personalised, risk-based breast cancer screening protocols. This requires population-level validation of practical models that can stratify women into breast cancer risk groups. Few studies have evaluated the Gail model (NCI Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool) in a population screening setting; we validated this tool in a large, screened population.

Methods

We used data from 40,158 women aged 50–69 years (via the lifepool cohort) participating in Australia’s BreastScreen programme. We investigated the association between Gail scores and future invasive breast cancer, comparing observed and expected outcomes by Gail score ranked groups. We also used machine learning to rank Gail model input variables by importance and then assessed the incremental benefit in risk prediction obtained by adding variables in order of diminishing importance.

Results

Over a median of 4.3 years, the Gail model predicted 612 invasive breast cancers compared with 564 observed cancers (expected/observed (E/O) = 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00–1.18). There was good agreement across decile groups of Gail scores (χ² = 7.1, p = 0.6) although there was some overestimation of cancer risk in the top decile of our study group (E/O = 1.65, 95% CI 1.33–2.07). Women in the highest quintile (Q5) of Gail scores had a 2.28-fold increased risk of breast cancer (95% CI 1.73–3.02, p < 0.0001) compared with the lowest quintile (Q1). Compared with the median quintile, women in Q5 had a 34% increased risk (95% CI 1.06–1.70, p = 0.014) and those in Q1 had a 41% reduced risk (95% CI 0.44–0.79, p < 0.0001). Similar patterns were observed separately for women aged 50–59 and 60–69 years. The model’s overall discrimination was modest (area under the curve (AUC) 0.59, 95% CI 0.56–0.61). A reduced Gail model excluding information on ethnicity and hyperplasia was comparable to the full Gail model in terms of correctly stratifying women into risk groups.

Conclusions

This study confirms that the Gail model (or a reduced model excluding information on hyperplasia and ethnicity) can effectively stratify a screened population aged 50–69 years according to the risk of future invasive breast cancer. This information has the potential to enable more personalised, risk-based screening strategies that aim to improve the balance of the benefits and harms of screening.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13058-018-1084-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A Large Linked Study to Evaluate the Future Burden of Cancer in Australia Attributable to Current Modifiable Behaviours

IntroductionThe cancer burden preventable through modifications to risk factors can be quantified by calculating their population attributable fractions (PAFs). PAF estimates require large, prospective data to inform risk estimates and contemporary population-based prevalence data to inform the current exposure distributions, including among population subgroups. Objectives and ApproachWe provide estimates of the preventable future cancer burden in Australia using large linked datasets. We pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N=367,058) and linked them to national registries to identify cancers and deaths. We estimated the strength of the associations between behaviours and cancer risk using a proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, study and other behaviours. Exposure prevalence was estimated from contemporary National Health Surveys. We harmonised risk factor data across the data sources, and calculated PAFs and their 95% confidence intervals using a novel method accounting for competing risk of death and risk factor interdependence. ResultsDuring the first 10-years follow-up, there were 3,471 incident colorectal cancers, 640 premenopausal and 2,632 postmenopausal breast cancers, 2,025 lung cancers and 22,078 deaths. The leading preventable causes were current smoking (53.7% of lung cancers), body fatness or BMI ≥ 25kg/m2 (11.1% of colorectal cancers, 10.9% of postmenopausal breast cancers), and regular alcohol consumption (12.2% of premenopausal breast cancers). Three in five lung cancers, but only one in four colorectal cancers and one in five breast cancers, were attributable to modifiable factors, when we also considered physical inactivity, dietary and hormonal factors. The burden attributable to modifiable factors was markedly higher in certain population subgroups, including men (colorectal, lung), people with risk factor clustering (colorectal, breast, lung), and individuals with low educational attainment (breast, lung). Conclusion/ImplicationsEstimating PAFs for modifiable risk factors across cancers using contemporary exposure prevalence data can inform timely public health action to improve health and health equity. Testing PAF effect modification may identify population subgroups with the most to gain from programs that support behaviour change and early detection.

How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening.

Menopausal hormone therapy: a systematic review of cost-effectiveness evaluations

BACKGROUND

Several evaluations of the cost-effectiveness (CE) of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) have been reported. The aim of this study was to systematically and critically review economic evaluations of MHT since 2002, after the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial results on MHT were published.

METHODS

The inclusion criteria for the review were: CE analyses of MHT versus no treatment, published from 2002-2016, in healthy women, which included both symptom relief outcomes and a range of longer term health outcomes (breast cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, fractures and colorectal cancer). Included economic models had outcomes expressed in cost per quality-adjusted life year or cost per life year saved. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews databases and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry were searched. CE evaluations were assessed in regard to (i) reporting standards using the CHEERS checklist and Drummond checklist; (ii) data sources for the utility of MHT with respect to menopausal symptom relief; (iii) cost derivation; (iv) outcomes considered in the models; and (v) the comprehensiveness of the models with respect to factors related to MHT use that impact long term outcomes, using breast cancer as an example outcome.

RESULTS

Five studies satisfying the inclusion criteria were identified which modelled cohorts of women aged 50 and older who used combination or estrogen-only MHT for 5-15 years. For women 50-60 years of age, all evaluations found MHT to be cost-effective and below the willingness-to-pay threshold of the country for which the analysis was conducted. However, 3 analyses based the quality of life (QOL) benefit for symptom relief on one small primary study. Examination of costing methods identified a need for further clarity in the methodology used to aggregate costs from sources. Using breast cancer as an example outcome, risks as measured in the WHI were used in the majority of evaluations. Apart from the type and duration of MHT use, other effect modifiers for breast cancer outcomes (for example body mass index) were not considered.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review identified issues which could impact the outcome of MHT CE analyses and the generalisability of their results. The estimated CE of MHT is driven largely by estimates of QOL improvements associated with symptom relief but data sources on these utility weights are limited. Future analyses should carefully consider data sources and the evidence on the long term risks of MHT use in terms of chronic disease. This review highlights the considerable difficulties in conducting cost-effectiveness analyses in situations where short term benefits of an intervention must be evaluated in the context of long term health outcomes.

Use of Menopausal Hormone Therapy and Bioidentical Hormone Therapy in Australian Women 50 to 69 Years of Age: Results from a National, Cross-Sectional Study

Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT) use in Australia fell by 55% from 2001 to 2005, following the release of large-scale findings on its risks and benefits. Comprehensive national data, including information on overall prevalence of MHT use as well as information on duration of use in Australia have not been reported since the 2004–5 National Health Survey, when 11% of women aged 45+ years were estimated to be current MHT users. No national data are available on prevalence of use of “bioidentical” hormone therapy (BHT). The objective of this study was to determine recent prevalence of MHT and BHT use. A cross-sectional, national, age-stratified, population survey was conducted in 2013. Eligible women, aged 50–69 years, resident in Australia were randomly sampled in 5-year age groups from the Medicare enrolment database (Australia’s universal health scheme). The response rate was 22% based on return of completed questionnaires, and analyses were restricted to 4,389 women within the specified age range. The estimated population-weighted prevalence of current use of MHT was 13% (95%CI 12–14), which was broadly similar to the previously reported national figures in 2004–5, suggesting that the use of MHT in Australia has largely stabilised over the past decade. A total of 39% and 20% of current-users with an intact uterus reported use of oestrogen-progestagen MHT and oestrogen-only MHT, respectively, whereas 77% of hysterectomised current-users used oestrogen-only MHT. Almost three-quarters of current-users [population-weighted prevalence 9% (95%CI 8–10)] had used MHT for ≥5 years. In regard to BHT, estimated population-weighted prevalence of ever use was 6% (95%CI 6–7) and 2% (95%CI 2–3) for current use. The population-weighted prevalence of MHT and BHT combined, in current users in their fifties and sixties was 15% (95%CI 14–16). These data provide a recent national “snapshot” of Australian women’s use of both conventional MHT and of BHT.

Human papillomavirus 16/18 seroprevalence in unvaccinated women over 30 years with normal cytology and with high grade cervical abnormalities in Australia: results from an observational study

Background

Australia commenced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in 2007, with a two-year catch-up to the age of 26; catch-up cohorts are thus now entering their thirties. Plans for monitoring vaccine impact involve pre- and post-vaccination assessment of cervical HPV DNA in the general population and in high grade abnormalities. Although HPV serology is less sensitive than DNA genotyping, it assesses lifetime exposure and may be easier to measure in the general population. However, benchmark pre-vaccination seroprevalence of vaccine-included types in unvaccinated women with high grade abnormalities has not previously been reported.

Methods

We assessed seroprevalence for HPV16/18 from a population-based sample of 3,729 women with normal cytology and 971 women with confirmed high grade abnormalities (CIN2/3), aged 30–64 years, unvaccinated, and recruited in New South Wales in 2006–2010. We examined the variation in HPV16/18 seropositivity by age and in relation to a range of reproductive and behavioural characteristics in the subgroup of normal cytology women with no recent history of high grade cervical disease.

Results

The HPV 16, 18 and combined seroprevalence was 19%, 7% and 24% among women with normal cytology, and 39%, 13% and 44% among women with CIN2/3, respectively. For both groups, HPV16/18 seroprevalence was highest at age 30–39 years and decreased with age. In multivariable analysis for women with normal cytology, HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity were each associated with the number of lifetime sexual partners (p-trend <0.001 and 0.052, respectively) and for HPV16 this was also associated with age (p-trend <0.001) and prior diagnosis of Chlamydia (adjusted OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.27-2.80).

Conclusions

The findings of this study inform pre-vaccination estimates of HPV seropositivity in women with normal cytology and women with high grade abnormalities. Almost a quarter of unvaccinated women aged over 30 years with normal cytology, and more than 40% of those with CIN2/3, had seroconverted to HPV 16 or 18. These findings provide a potential additional benchmark for assessing the effects of HPV vaccination.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0676-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The DietCompLyf study: a prospective cohort study of breast cancer survival and phytoestrogen consumption

DietCompLyf is a multi-centre prospective study designed to investigate associations between phytoestrogens - naturally occurring plant compounds with oestrogenic properties - and other diet and lifestyle factors with breast cancer recurrence and survival. 3159 women with grades I-III breast cancer were recruited 9-15 months post-diagnosis from 56 UK hospitals. Detailed information on clinico-pathological, diet, lifestyle and quality of life is collected annually up to 5 years. Biological samples have also been collected as a resource for subsequent evaluation. The characteristics of the patients and associations between pre-diagnosis intake of phytoestrogens (isoflavones and lignans; assessed using the EPIC-Norfolk UK 130 question food frequency questionnaire) and breast cancer (i) risk factors and (ii) prognostic factors are described for 1797 women who had complete data for all covariates and phytoestrogens of interest. Isoflavone intakes were higher in the patients who were younger at diagnosis, in the non-smokers, those who had breast-fed and those who took supplements. Lignan intakes were higher in patients with a higher age at diagnosis, in ex-smokers, those who had breast-fed, who took supplements, had a lower BMI at diagnosis, lower age at menarche and were nulliparous. No significant associations between pre-diagnosis phytoestrogen intake and factors associated with improved breast cancer prognosis were observed. The potential for further exploration of the relationship between phytoestrogens and breast cancer recurrence and survival, and for the establishment of evidence to improve dietary and lifestyle advice offered to patients following breast cancer diagnosis using DietCompLyf data is discussed.

Lectin microarray profiling of metastatic breast cancers

Altered protein glycosylation compared with the disease-free state is a universal feature of cancer cells. It has long been established that distinct glycan structures are associated with specific forms of cancer, but far less is known about the complete array of glycans associated with certain tumors. The cancer glycome has great potential as a source of biomarkers, but progress in this field has been hindered by a lack of available techniques for the elucidation of disease-associated glycosylation. In the present study, lectin microarrays consisting of 45 lectins with different binding preferences covering N- and O-linked glycans were coupled with evanescent-field activated fluorescent detection in the glycomic analysis of primary breast tumors and the serum and urine of patients with metastatic breast cancer. A single 50 µm section of a primary breast tumor or <1 µL of breast cancer patient serum or urine was sufficient to detect glycosylation alterations associated with metastatic breast cancer, as inferred from lectin-binding patterns. The high-throughput, sensitive and relatively simple nature of the simultaneous analysis of N- and O-linked glycosylation following minimal sample preparation and without the need for protein deglycosylation makes the lectin microarray analysis described a valuable tool for discovery phase glycomic profiling.

Dietary patterns and breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dietary patterns, which represent whole-diet and possible food and nutrient interactions, have been linked to the risk of various cancers. However, the associations of these dietary patterns with breast cancer remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We critically appraised the literature and conducted meta-analyses to pool the results of studies to clarify the relation between dietary patterns and breast cancer risk.

DESIGN

MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles that identified common dietary patterns published up to November 2009. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) comparing highest and lowest categories of dietary pattern scores and multivariable-adjusted ORs for a 20th-percentile increase in dietary pattern scores were combined by using random-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Case-control and cohort studies were retrieved that identified prudent/healthy (n = 18), Western/unhealthy (n = 17), and drinker (n = 4) dietary patterns. There was evidence of a decrease in the risk of breast cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of prudent/healthy dietary patterns (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.99; P = 0.02) in all studies and in pooled cohort studies alone. An increase in the risk of breast cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of a drinker dietary pattern (OR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.41; P = 0.01). There was no evidence of a difference in the risk of breast cancer between the highest and the lowest categories of Western/unhealthy dietary patterns (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.22; P = 0.12).

CONCLUSION

The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis indicate that some dietary patterns may be associated with breast cancer risk.

Lignans and breast cancer risk in pre- and post-menopausal women: meta-analyses of observational studies

Phyto-oestrogens are plant compounds structurally similar to oestradiol, which have been proposed to have protective effects against breast cancer. The main class of phyto-oestrogens in the Western diet is lignans. Literature reports on the effect of lignans in breast cancer risk have been conflicting. We performed three separate meta-analyses to examine the relationships between (i) plant lignan intake, (ii) enterolignan exposure and (iii) blood enterolactone levels and breast cancer risk. Medline, BIOSIS and EMBASE databases were searched for publications up to 30 September 2008, and 23 studies were included in the random effects meta-analyses. Overall, there was little association between high plant lignan intake and breast cancer risk (11 studies, combined odds ratio (OR): 0.93, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.83-1.03, P=0.15), but this association was subjected to marked heterogeneity (I(2)=44%). Restricting the analysis to post-menopausal women, high levels of plant lignan intake were associated with reduced breast cancer risk (7 studies, combined OR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.93, P<0.001) and heterogeneity was markedly reduced (I(2)=0%). High enterolignan exposure was also associated with breast cancer (5 studies, combined OR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.92, P=0.009) but, again, there was marked heterogeneity (I(2)=63%). No association was found with blood enterolactone levels (combined OR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.59-1.14, P=0.24). In conclusion, plant lignans may be associated with a small reduction in post-menopausal breast cancer risk, but further studies are required to confirm these results.

Do phytoestrogens reduce the risk of breast cancer and breast cancer recurrence? What clinicians need to know

Oestrogen is an important determinant of breast cancer risk. Oestrogen-mimicking plant compounds called phytoestrogens can bind to oestrogen receptors and exert weak oestrogenic effects. Despite this activity, epidemiological studies suggest that the incidence of breast cancer is lower in countries where the intake of phytoestrogens is high, implying that these compounds may reduce breast cancer risk, and possibly have an impact on survival. Isoflavones and lignans are the most common phytoestrogens in the diet. In this article, we present findings from human observational and intervention studies related to both isoflavone and lignan exposure and breast cancer risk and survival. In addition, the clinical implications of these findings are examined in the light of a growing dietary supplement market. An increasing number of breast cancer patients seek to take supplements together with their standard treatment in the hope that these will either prevent recurrence or treat their menopausal symptoms. Observational studies suggest a protective effect of isoflavones on breast cancer risk and the case may be similar for increasing lignan consumption although evidence so far is inconsistent. In contrast, short-term intervention studies suggest a possible stimulatory effect on breast tissue raising concerns of possible adverse effects in breast cancer patients. However, owing to the dearth of human studies investigating effects on breast cancer recurrence and survival the role of phytoestrogens remains unclear. So far, not enough clear evidence exists on which to base guidelines for clinical use, although raising patient awareness of the uncertain effect of phytoestrogens is recommended.