Model-Based Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa

Cost-effectiveness of single-visit cervical cancer screening in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a model-based analysis accounting for the HIV epidemic

Introduction

Women living with human immunodeficiency virus (WLHIV) face elevated risks of human papillomavirus (HPV) acquisition and cervical cancer (CC). Coverage of CC screening and treatment remains low in low-and-middle-income settings, reflecting resource challenges and loss to follow-up with current strategies. We estimated the health and economic impact of alternative scalable CC screening strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, a region with high burden of CC and HIV.

Methods

We parameterized a dynamic compartmental model of HPV and HIV transmission and CC natural history to KwaZulu-Natal. Over 100 years, we simulated the status quo of a multi-visit screening and treatment strategy with cytology and colposcopy triage (South African standard of care) and six single-visit comparator scenarios with varying: 1) screening strategy (HPV DNA testing alone, with genotyping, or with automated visual evaluation triage, a new high-performance technology), 2) screening frequency (once-per-lifetime for all women, or repeated every 5 years for WLHIV and twice for women without HIV), and 3) loss to follow-up for treatment. Using the Ministry of Health perspective, we estimated costs associated with HPV vaccination, screening, and pre-cancer, CC, and HIV treatment. We quantified CC cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted for each scenario. We discounted costs (2022 US dollars) and outcomes at 3% annually and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

We projected 69,294 new CC cases and 43,950 CC-related deaths in the status quo scenario. HPV DNA testing achieved the greatest improvement in health outcomes, averting 9.4% of cases and 9.0% of deaths with one-time screening and 37.1% and 35.1%, respectively, with repeat screening. Compared to the cost of the status quo ($12.79 billion), repeat screening using HPV DNA genotyping had the greatest increase in costs. Repeat screening with HPV DNA testing was the most effective strategy below the willingness to pay threshold (ICER: $3,194/DALY averted). One-time screening with HPV DNA testing was also an efficient strategy (ICER: $1,398/DALY averted).

Conclusions

Repeat single-visit screening with HPV DNA testing was the optimal strategy simulated. Single-visit strategies with increased frequency for WLHIV may be cost-effective in KwaZulu-Natal and similar settings with high HIV and HPV prevalence.

Fine-grained mathematical modeling for cost-effectiveness evaluation of public health policies for cervical cancer, with application to a Colombian case study

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer (CC) is globally ranked fourth in terms of incidence and mortality among women. Vaccination against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and screening programs can significantly reduce CC mortality rates. Hence, executing cost-effective public health policies for prevention and surveillance is crucial. However, defining policies that make the best use of the available resources is not easy, as it requires predicting the long-term costs and results of interventions on a changing population. Since the simpler task of predicting the results of public health policies is difficult, devising those that make the best usage of available resources is an arduous challenge for decision-makers.

METHODS

This paper proposes a fine-grained epidemiological simulation model based on differential equations, to effectively predict the costs and effectiveness of CC public health policies that include vaccination and screening. The model represents population dynamics, HPV transmission within the population, likelihood of infection clearance, virus-induced appearance of precancerous lesions and eventually CC, as well as immunity gained with vaccination and early detection with screening.

RESULTS

We offer a compartmentalized modeling approach that separates population, epidemics, and intervention concerns. We instantiate models with actual data from a Colombian case study and analyze their results to show how our modeling approach can support CEA studies. Moreover, we implement models in an open-source software tool to simultaneously define and evaluate multiple policies. With the support of the tool, we analyze 54 policies within a 30-year time horizon and use as a comparator the CC policy that has been used until recently. We identify 8 dominant policies, the best one with an ICER of 6.3 million COP (Colombian Pesos) per averted DALY. We also validate the modeling approach against the available population and HPV epidemic data. The effects of uncertainty in the values of key parameters (discount rate, sensitivity of screening tests) is evaluated through one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modeling approach can provide valuable support for healthcare decision-makers. The implementation into an automated tool allows customizing the analysis with country-specific data, flexibly defining public health policies to be evaluated, and conducting disaggregate analyses of their cost and effectiveness.

Outcomes of Human Papilloma Virus Vaccination in a Private Women Health Clinic in Lebanon

Objectives

The study aims to report on the feasibility and associated adverse events of HPV-Vaccination (HPVV) in a private clinic setting in Lebanon and, when available, the results of subsequent cervical cancer screening.

Methods

Opportunistic HPV vaccination is offered at the Women's Health Center of the AUBMC. We retrospectively reviewed the patients' demographic data, the incidence of adverse events, and their cytological screening.

Results

A cohort of healthy women (n = 1013) aged 26.2 years (12–54 years) were opportunistically vaccinated with one of two HPV vaccines; 845 (83.4%) received the quadrivalent vaccine (Q4V), and 151 (14.1%) received the bivalent vaccine (B2V). The majority (75.8%) received three doses while 16% received two doses. Out of these women, 26.3% (267) became sexually active postvaccination (NS2), whereas 17% (174) were sexually active prior to vaccination (SA) and the rest 57% (572) reported no sexual activity (NS1). Among the SA group, 26% (46/147) presented with abnormal cytology at time of vaccination. As for the NS2 women, 5% (14/267) had subsequently abnormal screening within 37 (12–103) months following vaccination.

Conclusions

In this observational study, we report the successful introduction of HPVV with negligible adverse events. The incidence of abnormal cervical cytology was low among our patients.

The potential cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination among girls in Mongolia

Introduction

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer among women in Mongolia with an age-standardized incidence rate of 23.5 per 100,000. HPV vaccination has not been introduced nationally and Gavi co-financing support is not available in Mongolia. Extended Gavi pricing for HPV vaccine may be available from vaccine manufacturers for a number of years. To inform introduction decision-making, we evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination among girls and young women in Mongolia.

Methods

We used UNIVAC (version 1.4), a static decision model, to evaluate the health and economic outcomes of single-cohort vaccination among females from the government perspective compared to no vaccination. We modeled vaccine introduction over 10 birth cohorts starting in 2022 comparing quadrivalent or bivalent vaccine selection and vaccine pricing variations. We used locally-specific data for cancer incidence, mortality, treatment and costs. Model outcomes included cancer cases, hospitalizations, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and costs presented in 2018 USD. Incremental costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3% and aggregated into an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER).

Results

The base-case scenario of HPV vaccination among 9 year-old girls was projected to avert 5,692 cervical cancer cases, 3,240 deaths, and 11,886 DALYs and incur $2.4-3.1M more costs compared to no vaccination. At prices of ($4.50-$4.60/dose), we estimated an ICER of $166-$265/DALY averted among 9-year-olds. When price per dose was increased to reported mean vaccine purchase price for non-Gavi LMICs ($14.17/dose), the ICER ranged from $556-820/DALY averted.

Conclusion

HPV vaccination among girls is highly likely to be a cost-effective investment in Mongolia compared to no vaccination with projected ICERs less than 20% of the 2018 GDP per capita of $3,735.

High impact health service interventions for attainment of UHC in Africa: A systematic review

African countries have prioritized the attainment of targets relating to Universal Health Coverage (UHC), Health Security (HSE) and Coverage of Health Determinants (CHD)to attain their health goals. Given resource constraints, it is important to prioritize implementation of health service interventions with the highest impact. This is important to be identified across age cohorts and public health functions of health promotion, disease prevention, diagnostics, curative, rehabilitative and palliative interventions. We therefore explored the published evidence on the effectiveness of existing health service interventions addressing the diseases and conditions of concern in the Africa Region, for each age cohort and the public health functions. Six public health and economic evaluation databases, reports and grey literature were searched. A total of 151 studies and 357 interventions were identified across different health program areas, public health functions and age cohorts. Of the studies, most were carried out in the African region (43.5%), on communicable diseases (50.6%), and non-communicable diseases (36.4%). Majority of interventions are domiciled in the health promotion, disease prevention and curative functions, covering all age cohorts though the elderly cohort was least represented. Neonatal and communicable conditions dominated disease burden in the early years of life and non-communicable conditions in the later years. A menu of health interventions that are most effective at averting disease and conditions of concern across life course in the African region is therefore consolidated. These represent a comprehensive evidence-based set of interventions for prioritization by decision makers to attain desired health goals. At a country level, we also identify principles for identifying priority interventions, being the targeting of higher implementation coverage of existing interventions, combining interventions across all the public health functions-not focusing on a few functions, provision of subsidies or free interventions and prioritizing early identification of high-risk populations and communities represent these principles.

Potential effectiveness of a therapeutic HPV intervention campaign in Uganda

Cervical cancer is a major source of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In addition to prophylactic HPV vaccination, secondary prevention strategies are needed to reduce cancer burden. We evaluated the potential cancer reductions associated with a hypothetical single-contact therapeutic HPV intervention-with 70% coverage and variable efficacy [30%-100%]-using a three-stage HPV modeling framework reflecting HPV and cervical cancer burden in Uganda. In the reference case, we assumed prophylactic preadolescent HPV vaccination starting in 2020 with 70% coverage. A one-time therapeutic intervention targeting 35-year-old women in 2025 (not age-eligible for prophylactic vaccination) averted 1801 cervical cancers per 100 000 women over their lifetime (100% efficacy) or 533 cancers per 100 000 (30% efficacy). Benefits were considerably smaller in birth cohorts eligible for prophylactic HPV vaccination (768 cases averted per 100 000 at 100% efficacy). Evaluating the population-level impact over 40 years, we found introduction of a therapeutic intervention in 2025 with 100% efficacy targeted annually to 30-year-old women averted 139 000 incident cervical cancers in Uganda. This benefit was greatly reduced if efficacy was lower (30% efficacy; 41 000 cases averted), introduction was delayed (2040 introduction; 72 000 cases averted) or both (22 000 cases averted). We demonstrate the potential benefits of a single-contact HPV therapeutic intervention in a low-income setting, but show the importance of high therapeutic efficacy and early introduction timing relative to existing prophylactic programs. Reduced benefits from a less efficacious intervention may be somewhat offset if available within a shorter time frame.

Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study

Introduction

Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. Our study objective was to assess similarities and differences in vaccine-impact projections through comparative modelling analysis by independently estimating the potential health impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

Methods

Using two widely published models (Harvard and Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME)) to estimate HPV vaccination impact, we simulated a vaccination scenario of 90% annual coverage among 10 cohorts of 9-year-old girls from 2021 to 2030 in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. We estimated potential health impact in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years averted among vaccinated cohorts from the time of vaccination until 2100. We harmonised the two models by standardising input data to comparatively estimate HPV vaccination impact.

Results

Prior to harmonising model assumptions, the range between PRIME and Harvard models for number of cervical cancer cases averted by HPV vaccination was: 262 000 to 2 70 000 in Ethiopia; 1 640 000 to 1 970 000 in India; 330 000 to 3 36 000 in Nigeria and 111 000 to 1 33 000 in Pakistan. When harmonising model assumptions, alignment on HPV type distribution significantly narrowed differences in vaccine-impact estimates.

Conclusion

Despite model differences, the Harvard and PRIME models yielded similar vaccine-impact estimates. The main differences in estimates are due to variation in interpretation around data on cervical cancer attribution to HPV-16/18. As countries make progress towards WHO targets for cervical cancer elimination, continued explorations of underlying differences in model inputs, assumptions and results when examining cervical cancer prevention policy will be critical.

Understanding the perceptions of Chinese women of the commercially available domestic and imported HPV vaccine: A semantic network analysis

BACKGROUND

A domestic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, Cecolin, that protects against HPV strains 16 and 18 was introduced to the Chinese market at a relatively low price in May 2020.This study has explored Chinese women's perceptions of both domestic and imported HPV vaccines, which differ in price and valency.

METHODS

Sentiment analysis and semantic network analyses were performed based on a sample of 45,729 domestic HPV vaccine-related posts from females on the Sina Weibo between April 17 and May 2, 2020. The geographic distribution was also analyzed based on the users' locations, which were retrieved from the database.

RESULTS

Most of the posts were positive and neutral (85%), although 15% were negative (e.g., expressions of anger, sadness, fear and disgust). Semantic analyses of the negative posts revealed that Chinese women generally had positive attitudes towards the HPV vaccine and were willing to be vaccinated. However, obvious geographical variations were identified. Women who lived in economically developed areas expressed a stronger desire to obtain imported quadrivalent or nonavalent vaccines due to concerns regarding effectiveness and quality. The women expressed disgust and anger mainly regarding difficulties in making an appointment, age restrictions for the nonavalent vaccine and gender restrictions. However, the population targeted by the domestic vaccine, namely women who lived in economically undeveloped areas and had relatively low incomes, had a low awareness of the HPV vaccine.

CONCLUSION

Government should provide programs, which educate females that bivalent HPV vaccine can offer protection against the majority of high-risk HPV types. Increasing awareness of the domestic vaccine among the population in economically undeveloped areas and provision of free domestic bivalent HPV vaccination/screening for low-income high-risk women would help to prevent cervical carcinoma. This issue also depends on rebuilding trust and repairing damage to the relationship between government/domestic vaccine manufacturers and the public.

Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the Global South: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Many reviews have been conducted on the economic evaluation of the HPV vaccine in global north countries. But there is a dearth of such reviews in the Global South countries. Hence, this systematic review aims to summarize studies done in these countries.

METHODS

Four databases PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2019 were searched for economic evaluations on HPV vaccination in the Global South countries. PRISMA guidelines were followed to include full-text articles. 40 original articles were shortlisted for full-text review.

RESULTS

Studies had varied models, assumptions, and results according to different scenarios. Most studies concluded HPV vaccination to be cost-effective under varied scenarios and vaccine cost was the most influential parameter affecting the sensitivity analyses, consequently incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. A wide range in the cost-effectiveness ratio was observed in the included studies due to different study settings, populations, and inconsistencies in modeling practices (variations in methodological approaches).

CONCLUSIONS

This review suggests the introduction of HPV vaccination alone or in combination with screening according to different countries. The price of the vaccine should be economical and funds for the vaccine should be provided by public sector firms.

Cost-effectiveness studies of HPV self-sampling: A systematic review

HPV self-sampling (HPV-SS) can increase cervical cancer screening participation by addressing barriers in high- and low- and middle-income settings. Successful implementation of HPV-SS programs will depend on understanding potential costs and health effects. Our objectives were to summarize the methods and results of published HPV-SS cost and cost-effectiveness studies, present implications of these results for HPV-SS program implementation, and identify knowledge gaps. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. One reviewer searched online databases for articles published through June 12, 2019, identified eligible studies, and extracted data; a second reviewer checked extracted data for accuracy. Eligible studies used an economic model to compare HPV-SS outreach strategies to standard-of-care tests. Of 16 eligible studies, 14 reported HPV-SS could be a cost-effective strategy. Studies differed in model type, HPV-SS delivery methods, triage strategies for positive results, and target populations. Most (9/16) modeled HPV-SS in European screening programs, 6/16 targeted women who were underscreened for cervical cancer, and 5/16 modeled HPV-SS in low- and middle-income countries. The most commonly identified driver of HPV-SS cost-effectiveness was the level of increase in cervical cancer screening attendance. Lower HPV-SS material and testing costs, higher sensitivity to detect cervical precancer, and longer duration of underscreening among HPV-SS users were also associated with increased cost-effectiveness. Future HPV-SS models in high-income settings should explore the effect of widespread vaccination and new triage strategies such as partial HPV genotyping. Knowledge gaps remain about the cost-effectiveness of HPV-SS in low- and middle-income settings.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making.

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General modelling guidelines are insufficient for reporting HPV models.

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HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a quality-based framework for HPV models.

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The framework has seven domains consisting of distinct reporting standards.

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HPV-FRAME aims to promote transparency and improve the quality in reporting.

Costs associated with delivering HPV vaccination in the context of the first year demonstration programme in southern Mozambique

Background

In Mozambique cervical cancer is a public health threat, due to its high incidence and limited access to early diagnosis of precancerous lesions. International organisations are supporting the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries. Some of these countries recently conducted demonstration programmes, which included evaluation of acceptability, coverage, and practicality of implementation and of integration in existing programmes. Information on costs of delivering the vaccine is needed to overcome the challenges of reaching vaccine potential recipients in rural and remote areas.

Methods

We estimated the financial and economic costs of delivering HPV vaccination to ten-year-old girls at schools for the first vaccination cycle of the demonstration programme in the Manhiça district (southern Mozambique), delivered throughout 2014. We also estimated costs of an alternative scenario with a reduced number of doses and personnel, which was analogous to the second vaccination cycle delivered throughout 2015. Cost estimates followed a micro-costing approach and included interviews with key informants at different administrative levels through the administration of standard questionnaires developed by the World Health Organisation.

Results

Considering only data from the first vaccination cycle (2014), which consisted in the administration of three doses, the average economic cost was US$17.59 per dose and US$52.29 per fully-immunised girl (FIG). Financial cost per dose (US$6.07) and per FIG (US$17.95) were substantially lower. The economic cost was US$15.53 per dose and US$31.14 per FIG when estimating an alternative cost scenario with reduced number of doses and personnel.

Conclusions

The average economic cost per dose was lower than the ones recently reported for low- and middle-income countries. However, our estimation of the financial cost per FIG was higher than the ones observed elsewhere (ranging from US$2.49 in India to US$20.36 in Vietnam) due to the high percentage of out-of-school girls which, reduced vaccine coverage and, therefore, reduced the denominator. Due to budget constraints, if Mozambique is to implement nation-wide HPV vaccination targeted to ten-year-old girls at schools, a reduction in personnel costs should be operated either by restricting the outreach vaccinator team or the number of supervision visits.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7338-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cervical cancer in Tanzania: A systematic review of current challenges in six domains

Cervical cancer is the most common cancer in Tanzania. After excluding human immunodeficiency virus, lower respiratory infections, malaria, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis, cervical cancer kills more women than any other form of illness in the country. Unfortunately, Tanzania has a low doctor-to-patient ratio (1:50,000) and nearly 7000 women die each year from this disease. The clinical problem is further magnified by the country's lack of resources and prevailing poverty, sporadic cervical cancer screening, prevalence of high-risk oncogenic human papillomavirus subtypes, and relatively high rates of human immunodeficiency virus co-infection. In recent years, addressing the cervical cancer problem has become a priority for the Tanzanian government. In this systematic review of 39 peer-reviewed publications that appeared in the PubMed/MEDLINE (NCBI) database from 2013 to 2018, we synthesize the growing body of literature to capture current trends in Tanzania's evolving cervical cancer landscape. Six domains were identified, including risk factors, primary prevention, barriers to screening, treatment, healthcare worker education, and sustainability. In addition to traditional risk factors associated with sexual behavior, acetowhite changes observed during visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid, lower education, rural setting, and HIV positivity also have a noteworthy clinical impact.

Making HPV vaccination available to girls everywhere

Cervical cancer is currently the fourth leading cause of cancer death among women worldwide, with most cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Safe, highly effective vaccines against HPV have been on the market since 2006, yet only 6% of girls worldwide have received this life-saving cancer prevention intervention. International organizations, including PATH, Gavi, and the pharmaceutical companies Merck and GlaxoSmithKline, have provided support to eligible low- and middle-income countries to implement national HPV vaccination programs. Still, glaring disparities in the availability of national HPV vaccination programs and the coverage of the primary target population between the global north and south persist. We illustrate worldwide HPV vaccine implementation and coverage using an online data visualization, which is publicly available and can be used to gain unique insights. We also present three emerging solutions to transform future HPV vaccine delivery in low- and middle-income countries: low-cost generics, single-dose vaccination, and co-administration with other adolescent vaccines. By rapidly expanding access to HPV vaccination to girls everywhere, vaccine-type HPV infections can be virtually eliminated. At high vaccination-coverage levels, more than 80%-or approximately 230 000-of the cervical cancer deaths that occur each year can be averted.

Cost-effectiveness of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination in Nigeria: a decision analysis using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage

Background

World Health Organisation recommends routine Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination for girls when its cost-effectiveness in the country or region has been duly considered. We therefore aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Nigeria using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage, i.e. realistically achievable in the studied context.

Methods

A microsimulation frame-work was used. The natural history for cervical cancer disease was remodelled from a previous Nigerian model-based study. Costing was based on health providers’ perspective. Disability adjusted life years attributable to cervical cancer mortality served as benefit estimate. Suitable policy option was obtained by calculating the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess parameter uncertainty. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore the robustness of the policy recommendation to key parameters alteration. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated to determine the expected opportunity cost associated with choosing the optimal scenario or strategy at the maximum cost-effectiveness threshold.

Results

Combination of the current scenario of opportunistic screening and national HPV vaccination programme (CS + NV) was the only cost-effective and robust policy option. However, CS + NV scenario was only cost-effective so far the unit cost of HPV vaccine did not exceed $5. EVPI analysis showed that it may be worthwhile to conduct additional research to inform the decision to adopt CS + NV.

Conclusions

National HPV vaccination combined with opportunist cervical cancer screening is cost-effective in Nigeria. However, adoption of this strategy should depend on its relative efficiency when compared to other competing new vaccines and health interventions.

Acceptability of cervical cancer screening using visual inspection among women attending a childhood immunization clinic in Uganda

Objective

To evaluate the acceptability and performance of cervical cancer (CC) screening using visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) integrated into a rural immunization clinic in Uganda.

Methods/materials

We conducted a cross-sectional pilot study in rural Uganda. We explored associations between women's characteristics and acceptance of VIA testing. We collected samples for Papanicolaou (Pap) smear testing in a random subset of women and used results from this test as a comparator for assessing VIA performance.

Results

We enrolled 625 women of whom 571 (91.4%) accepted and 54 (8.6%) refused CC screening. In the univariate model, age (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.10; p-value<0.001) and employment status (OR 2.00; p-value=0.019) were significantly associated with acceptance of VIA screening. In the multivariate model, no characteristic was independently associated with acceptance of VIA screening after adjusting for other factors. Compared to reference Pap smear, CC screening with VIA had a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 97.7%.

Conclusions

CC screening with VIA is highly acceptable in the setting of rural immunization clinics in Uganda. Studies to assess which screening method would be the most effective and cost-effective are needed before stakeholders can consider adopting screening programs at scale.

When cost-effective interventions are unaffordable: Integrating cost-effectiveness and budget impact in priority setting for global health programs

Potential cost-effective barriers in cost-effectiveness studies mean that budgetary impact analyses should also be included in post-2015 Sustainable Development Goal projects says Joshua Salomon and colleagues.

Cervical cancer in sub-Saharan Africa: a preventable noncommunicable disease

INTRODUCTION

Infections caused by high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) are responsible for 7.7% of cancers in developing countries, mainly cervical cancer. This disease is steadily increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, with more than 75,000 new cases and 50,000 deaths yearly, further increased by HIV infection. Areas covered: The current status of cervical cancer associated with HPV in sub-Saharan Africa has been systematically revised. The main issues discussed here are related to the public health burden of cervical cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and predictions for the coming decades, including molecular epidemiology and determinants of HPV infection in Africa, and promising prevention measures currently being evaluated in Africa. Expert commentary: By the year 2030, cervical cancer will kill more than 443,000 women yearly worldwide, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The increase in the incidence of cervical cancer in Africa could counteract the progress made by African women in reducing maternal mortality and longevity. Nevertheless, cervical cancer is a potentially preventable noncommunicable disease, and intervention strategies to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health concern should be urgently implemented.

Challenges in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Modelling of HPV Vaccines in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Practice Recommendations

BACKGROUND

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a number of challenges in implementing cervical cancer prevention programmes that do not apply in high-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

This review assessed how context-specific challenges of implementing cervical cancer prevention strategies in LMICs were accounted for in existing cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

METHODS

The databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, Web of Science, and the Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (CEA) Registry were searched for studies published from 2006 to 2015. A descriptive, narrative, and interpretative synthesis of data was undertaken.

RESULTS

Of the 33 studies included in the review, the majority acknowledged cost per vaccinated girl (CVG) (26 studies) and vaccine coverage rate (21 studies) as particular challenges for LMICs, while nine studies identified screening coverage rate as a challenge. Most of the studies estimated CVG as a composite of different cost items. However, the basis for the items within this composite cost was unclear. The majority used an assumption rather than an observed rate to represent screening and vaccination coverage rates. CVG, vaccine coverage and screening coverage were shown by some studies through sensitivity analyses to reverse the conclusions regarding cost-effectiveness, thereby significantly affecting policy recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

While many studies recognized aspects of the particular challenges of HPV vaccination in LMICs, greater efforts need to be made in adapting models to account for these challenges. These include adapting costings of HPV vaccine delivery from other countries, learning from the outcomes of cervical cancer screening programmes in the same geographical region, and taking into account the country's previous experience with other vaccination programmes.

Estimating long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV 16/18 vaccine in China

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 are the two most common HPV oncogenic types that can be prevented by vaccination. This study aimed at assessing the cost-effectiveness of 3 doses of the bivalent HPV vaccine in rural and urban settings in China.

METHODS

A Markov model was adapted to reflect the lifetime of a modelled 100,000 12-year-old girls cohort in rural and urban settings in China. Input parameters were obtained from published literature, official reports and a two-round expert review panel. Clinical and economic outcomes of vaccination at age 12 with screening was compared to screening only. In the base case analysis, a 3 % discount rate, the vaccine cost of 247 CNY (US$ 39, PAHO vaccine cost in 2013), two rounds of screening in a life time and 70 % coverage for both screening and vaccination were used. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. We used different thresholds of cost-effectiveness to reflect the diversity of economic development in China.

RESULTS

Vaccination in addition to screening could prevent 60 % more cervical cancer cases and deaths than screening only. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio varied largely when changing cost of vaccination and discount in one way analysis. Vaccination was very cost-effective when the vaccine cost ranged 87-630 CNY (US$ 13.8-100) in rural and 87-750 CNY (US$ 13.8-119) in urban; and remained cost-effective when the vaccine cost ranged 630-1,700 CNY (US$ 100-270) in rural and 750-1,900 CNY (US$ 119-302) in urban in two way analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that model results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

In both rural and urban, the vaccination cost and discounting are important factors determining the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination; policy makers in China should take these into account when making a decision on the introduction of HPV vaccine. In areas with a high burden of cervical cancer and limited screening activities, HPV vaccination should be prioritized. However, the vaccine cost needs to be reduced in order to make it very cost-effective and affordable as well, in particular in poverty areas with high disease burden.

Resources Required for Cervical Cancer Prevention in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death in women, with 85% of cases and deaths occurring in developing countries. While organized screening programs have reduced cervical cancer incidence in high-income countries through detection and treatment of precancerous lesions, the implementation of organized screening has not been effective in low-resource settings due to lack of infrastructure and limited budgets. Our objective was to estimate the cost of comprehensive primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a modeling analysis to estimate 1) for girls aged 10 years, the cost of 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination; and 2) for women aged 30 to 49 years, the cost of cervical cancer screening (with visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), HPV testing, or cytology) and preventive treatment in 102 low- and middle-income countries from 2015 to 2024. We used an Excel-based costing and service utilization model to estimate financial costs (2013 US$) based on prevalence of HPV, prevalence of precancerous lesions, and screening test performance. Where epidemiologic data were unavailable, we extrapolated from settings with data using an individual-based microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis (calibrated to 20 settings) and multivariate regression. Total HPV vaccination costs ranged from US$8.6 billion to US$24.2 billion for all scenarios considered (immediate, 5-year, or 10-year roll-out; price per dose US$4.55-US$70 by country income level). The total cost of screening and preventive treatment ranged from US$5.1 billion (10-year roll-out, screening once at age 35 years) to US$42.3 billion (immediate roll-out, high intensity screening). Limitations of this analysis include the assumption of standardized protocols by country income level that did not account for the potential presence of multiple screening modalities or management strategies within a country, and extrapolation of cost and epidemiologic data to settings where data were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated cost of comprehensive cervical cancer prevention with 2-dose HPV vaccination of 10-year-old girls and screening of women aged 30 to 49 years ranges from US$13.7 billion to US$66.5 billion, depending on speed of roll-out, vaccine price per dose, and screening test and frequency. Findings demonstrate the substantial impact of vaccine price in middle-income countries that are not eligible for assistance from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Replacing routine cytology with HPV-based screening may reduce total costs. Data on the health impact and relative cost-effectiveness of strategies are needed to determine the best value for public health dollars.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection: a Mozambique overview

Human Papillomavirus is agent of the most common sexually transmitted disease which is able to infect mucosal and cutaneous membranes of the anogenital region, upper aerodigestive tract, and other head and neck mucosal regions. Although mainly HPV infection can be asymptomatic and transient, it may persist and give rise to various lesions such as warts, condyloma dysplasia and cancers depending on low or high risk type of HPV infection. Moreover, growing recent evidence suggests a role of this virus in male and female fertility. To date no effective prevention, test, treatment and control strategies are provided for people in developing countries despite the reported high incidence of HPV both in women and men. This paper reviews the more recent literature about HPV infection highlighting epidemiology, related pathologies and possible fertility effects of HPV in male and female with particular attention to the Mozambique context.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of human papillomavirus vaccination in South Africa accounting for human immunodeficiency virus prevalence

Background

This study aims at evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a 2-dose schedule human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme of HPV and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) naïve 12-year-old girls, in addition to cervical cancer (CC) screening alone, in South Africa. The study aims to account for both the impact of the vaccine among girls who are HIV-positive (HIV+) as well as HIV-negative (HIV-) population.

Methods

A previously published Markov cohort model was adapted to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of a HPV vaccination programme in girls aged 12 years (N = 527 900) using the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 vaccine from a public payer perspective. Two subpopulations were considered: HIV- and HIV+ women. Each population followed the HPV natural history with different transition probabilities. Model input data were obtained from the literature, local databases and Delphi panel. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 5 %. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the evaluation.

Results

Implementation of the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 vaccine in combination with current cytological screening in South African girls could prevent up to 8 869 CC cases and 5 436 CC deaths over the lifetime of a single cohort. Without discounting, this HPV vaccine is dominant over screening alone; with discounting, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is ZAR 81 978 (South African Rand) per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective based on World Health Organization (WHO) recommended threshold (3 x gross domestic product/capita = ZAR 200 293). In a scenario with a hypothetical targeted vaccination in a HIV+ subpopulation alone, the modelled outcomes suggest that HPV vaccination is still cost-effective, although the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increases to ZAR 102 479. Results were sensitive to discount rate, vaccine efficacy, HIV incidence and mortality rates, and HPV-related disease transition probabilities.

Conclusions

The AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 vaccine can be considered cost-effective in a South African context although the cost-effectiveness is expected to be lower in the HIV+ subpopulation than in the overall female population. With improved access to HIV treatment, the HIV mortality and incidence rates are likely to be reduced, which could improve cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programme in South Africa.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1295-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cervical cancer screening in low-resource settings: A cost-effectiveness framework for valuing tradeoffs between test performance and program coverage

As cervical cancer screening programs are implemented in low-resource settings, protocols are needed to maximize health benefits under operational constraints. Our objective was to develop a framework for examining health and economic tradeoffs between screening test sensitivity, population coverage and follow-up of screen-positive women, to help decision makers identify where program investments yield the greatest value. As an illustrative example, we used an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer calibrated to epidemiologic data from Uganda. We assumed once in a lifetime screening at age 35 with two-visit HPV DNA testing or one-visit visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). We assessed the health and economic tradeoffs that arise between (i) test sensitivity and screening coverage; (ii) test sensitivity and loss to follow-up (LTFU) of screen-positive women; and (iii) test sensitivity, screening coverage and LTFU simultaneously. The decline in health benefits associated with sacrificing HPV DNA test sensitivity by 20% (e.g., shifting from provider- to self-collection of specimens) could be offset by gains in coverage if coverage increased by at least 20%. When LTFU was 10%, two-visit HPV DNA testing with 80-90% sensitivity was more effective and more cost-effective than one-visit VIA with 40% sensitivity and yielded greater health benefits than VIA even as VIA sensitivity increased to 60% and HPV test sensitivity declined to 70%. As LTFU increased, two-visit HPV DNA testing became more costly and less effective than one-visit VIA. Setting-specific data on achievable test sensitivity, coverage, follow-up rates and programmatic costs are needed to guide decision making for cervical cancer screening.

The Interaction between Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Human Papillomaviruses in Heterosexuals in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer in the world, which is further aggravated by the burden of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) disease with invasive cervical cancer being an AIDS-defining cancer. The prevalence of HPV infection and associated disease is very high in HIV-infected people and continues to be a problem even after anti-retroviral therapy. In the genital tract, the interaction between HPV and HIV is complex, with infection with multiple HPV types reported to make both women and men more susceptible to HIV infection. Besides the national programmes to vaccinate girls against HPV and screen women for cervical cancer, there should be targeted cervical cancer screening, treatment and prevention programmes introduced into HIV treatment centres. There is evidence that in high HIV prevalence areas, HIV-positive women could cause increases in the prevalence of genital HPV infection in HIV-negative men and so increase the HPV circulating in the community. Condom use and circumcision reduce the acquisition of HIV-1, and also to some extent of HPV. This review will highlight what is known about the interaction of HIV and HPV, with an emphasis on research in Africa.

Cervical human papillomavirus prevalence and genotype distribution among hybrid capture 2 positive women 15 to 64 years of age in the Gurage zone, rural Ethiopia

Background

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a prerequisite of cervical cancer, the leading cause of cancer mortality in Ethiopian women today. Data on Ethiopian cervical HPV prevalence and genotype distribution are rare, but essential as pre-vaccine baseline data to monitor changes after initiating HPV vaccination. The objectives of this study were to assess the cervical HPV prevalence, genotype distribution and associated correlates among female hospital outpatients in rural Ethiopia.

Methods

We examined a consecutive sample of 537 women 15–64 years of age in rural Ethiopia between November and December 2006. Screening for low risk (LR) and high-risk (HR) cervical HPV infection was performed and HR positive samples were genotyped with a GP5+/6 + − and SPF10-primer based system.

Results

The age-standardized prevalence of HPV, HPV HR and HPV LR infection was 17.3% (95% CI 14.1-20.5), 15.8% (95% CI 12.7-18.9) and 3.9% (95% CI 2.3-5.6), respectively. Among HC2 HPV HR positive infections (n = 86), the most common genotype was HPV 16 (24.4%), followed by 52 (11.6%), 56 (10.5%) and 31 (10.5%). Non-married relationship and widowhood, increasing number of lifetime sexual partners, human immunodeficiency virus infection and non-traditional housing type, but not age, were significantly associated with HR HPV infection.

Conclusions

These results on cervical HPV prevalence and genotype distribution may serve as baseline data in evaluating the impact of future HPV vaccination programmes in rural Ethiopia.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1750-9378-9-33) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study

BACKGROUND

Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in settings with the highest burden of HPV is not universal, partly because of the absence of quantitative estimates of country-specific effects on health and economic costs. We aimed to develop and validate a simple generic model of such effects that could be used and understood in a range of settings with little external support.

METHODS

We developed the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programmes or vaccine uptake. We validated PRIME against existing reports of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness, projected outcomes for 179 countries (assuming full vaccination of 12-year-old girls), and outcomes for 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries (using vaccine uptake data from the GAVI Alliance). We assessed differences between countries in terms of cost-effectiveness and health effects.

FINDINGS

In validation, PRIME reproduced cost-effectiveness conclusions for 24 of 26 countries from 17 published studies, and for all 72 countries in a published study of GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccination of a cohort of 58 million 12-year-old girls in 179 countries prevented 690,000 cases of cervical cancer and 420,000 deaths during their lifetime (mostly in low-income or middle-income countries), at a net cost of US$4 billion. HPV vaccination was very cost effective (with every disability-adjusted life-year averted costing less than the gross domestic product per head) in 156 (87%) of 179 countries. Introduction of the vaccine in countries without national HPV vaccination at present would prevent substantially more cases of cervical cancer than in countries with such programmes, although the disparity has narrowed since 2012. If 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries adopt vaccination according to forecasts, then in 2070 GAVI Alliance-funded vaccination could prevent 200,000 cases of cervical cancer and 100,000 deaths in some of the highest-burden countries.

INTERPRETATION

Large between-country disparities exist for HPV vaccination, with countries with the most to gain yet to introduce national HPV vaccination. Support from the GAVI Alliance could help to reduce such disparities, but a substantial burden will remain even after presently projected vaccine introductions.

FUNDING

WHO.