Modeling the impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination on the incidence of Pap test abnormalities in the United States

Cost-effectiveness of Interventions to Increase HPV Vaccine Uptake

OBJECTIVES

We sought to prioritize interventions for increasing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage based on cost-effectiveness from a US state perspective to inform decisions by policy makers.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic simulation model of HPV transmission and progression scaled to a medium-sized US state (5 million individuals). We modeled outcomes over 50 years comparing no intervention to a one-year implementation of centralized reminder and recall for HPV vaccination, school-located HPV vaccination, or quality improvement (QI) visits to primary care clinics. We used probabilistic sensitivity analysis to assess a range of plausible outcomes associated with each intervention. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated relative to a conservative willingness-to-pay threshold; $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) .

RESULTS

All interventions were cost-effective, relative to no intervention. QI visits had the lowest cost and cost per QALY gained ($1538 versus no intervention). Statewide implementation of centralized reminder and recall cost $28 289 per QALY gained versus QI visits. School-located vaccination had the highest cost but was cost-effective at $18 337 per QALY gained versus QI visits. Scaling to the US population, interventions could avert 3000 to 14 000 future HPV cancers. When varying intervention cost and impact over feasible ranges, interventions were typically preferred to no intervention, but cost-effectiveness varied between intervention strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Three interventions for increasing HPV vaccine coverage were cost-effective and offered substantial health benefits. Policy makers seeking to increase HPV vaccination should, at minimum, dedicate additional funding for QI visits, which are consistently effective at low cost and may additionally consider more resource-intensive interventions (reminder and recall or school-located vaccination).

Risk Reduction Interventions for Human Papillomavirus in Rural Maryland

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is largely vaccine preventable. The Healthy People 2020 target goal for vaccine administration is 80%. Current United States (U. S.) rates are far lower primarily because of vaccine hesitancy and lack of provider recommendation.

OBJECTIVE

Implement a risk reduction initiative to increase HPV vaccine rates in females aged 12-26 in five rural counties in Maryland.

METHODS

A convenience sample from a rural community screened an HPV documentary movie, Questionnaire responses pre- and postscreening were surveyed for impact on vaccine readiness. Postscreening focus group comments were analyzed for common themes. Females aged 12-26 from a University Medical Group Women's Health Center located in rural Maryland were targeted. Chart review of immunization records 90 days pre- and postprovider vaccine recommendation demonstrated impact.

RESULTS

Public awareness events have the potential to impact HPV vaccine hesitancy, but this research did not achieve statistical significance. Direct provider to patient recommendations resulted in a 15% increase in HPV immunizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Education of vaccine-eligible individuals should be undertaken.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING

Providers who recommend administration of the vaccine significantly increase immunization rates.

Disparities and reverse disparities in HPV vaccination: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Studies disagree about whether racial and ethnic groups have lower or higher human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake, an important issue given large disparities in some HPV cancers. We sought to characterize and explain racial and ethnic differences in HPV vaccination. We systematically searched PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, and Web of Science to identify US studies through mid-2017 reporting associations of race and ethnicity with HPV vaccination. We identified 118 studies (n = 3,095,486) published in English that reported HPV vaccine initiation or follow-through in the US from which we could calculate effect sizes. We used random effects meta-analysis to synthesize effect sizes for comparisons of Whites or non-Hispanics to Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, or all minority groups combined. Studies showed no racial or ethnic differences in HPV vaccine initiation overall. However, when restricting to studies using provider-verified vaccination data, minorities were 6.1% [3.3%-8.8%] more likely than Whites to initiate HPV vaccination. Advantages were larger for Hispanics, males, and younger samples (age < 18). In contrast, minorities were 8.6% [5.6%, 11.7%], less likely than Whites to follow-through with the full HPV vaccine series, a disparity present across all participant and study characteristics. More recent studies found larger advantages for racial and ethnic minorities in HPV vaccine initiation and smaller disparities in follow-through. In summary, high-quality studies found racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to initiate but less likely to follow-through with HPV vaccination, a clear finding that self-report studies obscure. Higher HPV vaccine initiation among minorities suggests potential reductions in HPV cancer disparities.

Outcomes among pregnant recently incarcerated women attending a reentry transitions clinic

This mixed methods retrospective case series and qualitative descriptive study describes pregnancy outcomes during the postincarceration period. A retrospective case series via electronic medical record chart review from a subset of women attending a postincarceration primary care clinic with a condition of interest (pregnancy) described demographics, substance use, diagnoses, and pregnancy outcomes. We compared 27 pregnant to 79 nonpregnant women and contextualized quantitative data with qualitative descriptive vignettes. Twenty-seven women completed 29 pregnancies (2 women with 2 deliveries each), all of which were unplanned; there were 11 live births, 8 pregnant at study closure, 7 miscarriages, and 3 terminations. Although substance use history was high, rates were higher among nonpregnant women (92% vs 74%). Among the 5 births, 4 tested positive for substance use during pregnancy. All 11 infants had pregnancy or delivery complications. Although 7 of the 10 pregnant women with live births had prior pregnancy complications, only 4 were placed in a special care obstetrics clinic. Although unplanned pregnancies were common, most births did not demonstrate maternal substance use. All live births had pregnancy or delivery complications, but few were accepted to specialist prenatal care, suggesting potential considerations for recently incarcerated women.

Optimal Information Collection Policies in a Markov Decision Process Framework

BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness and value of additional information about a health technology or program may change over time because of trends affecting patient cohorts and/or the intervention. Delaying information collection even for parameters that do not change over time may be optimal.

METHODS

We present a stochastic dynamic programming approach to simultaneously identify the optimal intervention and information collection policies. We use our framework to evaluate birth cohort hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening. We focus on how the presence of a time-varying parameter (HCV prevalence) affects the optimal information collection policy for a parameter assumed constant across birth cohorts: liver fibrosis stage distribution for screen-detected diagnosis at age 50.

RESULTS

We prove that it may be optimal to delay information collection until a time when the information more immediately affects decision making. For the example of HCV screening, given initial beliefs, the optimal policy (at 2010) was to continue screening and collect information about the distribution of liver fibrosis at screen-detected diagnosis in 12 years, increasing the expected incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) by $169.5 million compared to current guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

The option to delay information collection until the information is sufficiently likely to influence decisions can increase efficiency. A dynamic programming framework enables an assessment of the marginal value of information and determines the optimal policy, including when and how much information to collect.

Impact of Widespread Cervical Cancer Screening: Number of Cancers Prevented and Changes in Race-specific Incidence

OBJECTIVES

With recent approval of standalone HPV testing and increasing uptake of HPV vaccination, some have postulated that we are moving toward a "post-Pap" era of cervical cancer prevention. However, the total number cases that have been prevented by Pap smear screening as well as its impact on racial disparities are unknown.

METHODS

We estimated national cervical cancer incidence from 1976 to 2009 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result database. Screening data were obtained from the literature and National Cancer Institute Progress Reports. We examined early, late, and race-specific trends in cancer incidence, and calculated the estimated number of cancers prevented over the past 3 decades.

RESULTS

From 1976 to 2009, there was a significant decrease in the incidence of early-stage cervical cancer, from 9.8 to 4.9 cases per 100,000 women (P<0.001). Late-stage disease incidence also decreased, from 5.3 to 3.7 cases per 100,000 women (P<0.001). The incidence among black women decreased from 26.9 to 9.7 cases per 100,000 women (P<0.001), a greater decline compared with that of white women and women of other races. After adjusting for "prescreening era" rates of cervical cancer, we estimate that Pap smears were associated with a reduction of between 105,000 and 492,000 cases of cervical cancer over the past 3 decades in the United States.

CONCLUSIONS

A large number of early-stage and late-stage cervical cancers were prevented and racial disparity in cancer rates were reduced during an era of widespread Pap smear screening.

Does a Primary Health Clinic for Formerly Incarcerated Women Increase Linkage to Care?

OBJECTIVE

This study examined a primary care-based program to address the health needs of women recently released from incarceration by facilitating access to primary medical, mental health, and substance use disorder (SUD) treatment.

STUDY DESIGN

Peer community health workers recruited women released from incarceration within the past 9 months into the Women's Initiative Supporting Health Transitions Clinic (WISH-TC). Located within an urban academic medical center, WISH-TC uses cultural, gender, and trauma-specific strategies grounded in the self-determination theory of motivation. Data abstracted from intake forms and medical charts were examined using bivariate and multivariable regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 200 women recruited, 100 attended the program at least once. Most (83.0%) did not have a primary care provider before enrollment. Conditions more prevalent than in the general population included psychiatric disorders (94.0%), substance use (90.0%), intimate partner violence (66.0%), chronic pain (66.0%), and hepatitis C infection (12.0%). Patients received screening and vaccinations (65.9%-87.0%), mental health treatment (91.5%), and SUD treatment (64.0%). Logistic regression revealed that receipt of mental health treatment was associated with number of psychiatric (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], = 4.09; p < .01), and social/behavioral problems (AOR, 2.67; p = .04), and higher median income (AOR, 1.07; p = .05); African American race predicted lower receipt of SUD treatment (AOR, 0.08; p < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

An innovative primary care transitions program successfully helped women recently released from incarceration to receive medical, mental health, and SUD treatment. Primary care settings with specialty programs, including community health workers, may provide a venue to screen, assess, and help recently incarcerated women access needed care.

Molecular tests potentially improving HPV screening and genotyping for cervical cancer prevention

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers can be averted by type-specific vaccination (primary prevention) and/or through detection and ablation of precancerous cervical lesions (secondary prevention). This review presents current challenges to cervical cancer screening programs, focusing on recent molecular advances in HPV testing and potential improvements on risk stratification. Areas covered: High-risk (HR)-HPV DNA detection has been progressively incorporated into cervix cancer prevention programs based on its increased sensitivity. Advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) are being rapidly applied to HPV typing. However, current HPV DNA tests lack specificity for identification of cervical precancer (CIN3). HPV typing methods were reviewed based on published literature, with a focus on these applications for screening and risk stratification in the emerging complex clinical scenario post-vaccine introduction. In addition, the potential for NGS technologies to increase specificity is discussed in regards to reflex testing of specimens for emerging biomarkers for cervix precancer/cancer. Expert commentary: Integrative multi-disciplinary molecular tests accurately triaging exfoliated cervical specimens will improve cervical cancer prevention programs while simplifying healthcare procedures in HPV-infected women. Hence, the concept of a 'liquid-biopsy' (i.e., 'molecular' Pap test) highly specific for early identification of cervical precancerous lesions is of critical importance in the years to come.

Effect of human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer screening in Alberta

BACKGROUND

A school-based program with quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented in Alberta in 2008. We assessed the impact of this program on Pap test cytology results using databases of province-wide vaccination and cervical cancer screening.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study involving a cohort of women in Alberta born between 1994 and 1997 who had at least 1 Pap test between 2012 and 2015. Women with negative cytology results were controls. Women with low-grade (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) and high-grade (atypical squamous cells, cannot rule out a high-grade lesion; or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) cervical abnormalities were cases. Exposure status was assigned according to records of HPV vaccination. Odds ratios (ORs) for abnormal cytology results by vaccination status were adjusted for neighbourhood income, laboratory service, rural versus urban residency, and age.

RESULTS

The total study population was 10 204. Adjusting for age, vaccinated women had a higher screening rate than unvaccinated women (13.0% v. 11.4%, p < 0.001). Among women who received full vaccination (≥ 3 doses), the adjusted OR for cervical abnormalities was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.82). For high-grade lesions, the adjusted OR was 0.50 (95% CI 0.30-0.85). With 2-dose HPV vaccination, the adjusted OR for cervical abnormalities was 1.08 (95% CI 0.84-1.38).

INTERPRETATION

Quadrivalent HPV vaccination significantly reduced high-grade cervical abnormalities but required 3 doses. Vaccination against HPV was associated with screening uptake. Population-based vaccination and screening programs should work together to optimize cervical cancer prevention.

Return on investment: a fuller assessment of the benefits and cost savings of the US publicly funded family planning program

Policy Points: The US publicly supported family planning effort serves millions of women and men each year, and this analysis provides new estimates of its positive impact on a wide range of health outcomes and its net savings to the government. The public investment in family planning programs and providers not only helps women and couples avoid unintended pregnancy and abortion, but also helps many thousands avoid cervical cancer, HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, infertility, and preterm and low birth weight births. This investment resulted in net government savings of $13.6 billion in 2010, or $7.09 for every public dollar spent.

CONTEXT

Each year the United States' publicly supported family planning program serves millions of low-income women. Although the health impact and public-sector savings associated with this program's services extend well beyond preventing unintended pregnancy, they never have been fully quantified.

METHODS

Drawing on an array of survey data and published parameters, we estimated the direct national-level and state-level health benefits that accrued from providing contraceptives, tests for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), Pap tests and tests for human papillomavirus (HPV), and HPV vaccinations at publicly supported family planning settings in 2010. We estimated the public cost savings attributable to these services and compared those with the cost of publicly funded family planning services in 2010 to find the net public-sector savings. We adjusted our estimates of the cost savings for unplanned births to exclude some mistimed births that would remain publicly funded if they had occurred later and to include the medical costs for births through age 5 of the child.

FINDINGS

In 2010, care provided during publicly supported family planning visits averted an estimated 2.2 million unintended pregnancies, including 287,500 closely spaced and 164,190 preterm or low birth weight (LBW) births, 99,100 cases of chlamydia, 16,240 cases of gonorrhea, 410 cases of HIV, and 13,170 cases of pelvic inflammatory disease that would have led to 1,130 ectopic pregnancies and 2,210 cases of infertility. Pap and HPV tests and HPV vaccinations prevented an estimated 3,680 cases of cervical cancer and 2,110 cervical cancer deaths; HPV vaccination also prevented 9,000 cases of abnormal sequelae and precancerous lesions. Services provided at health centers supported by the Title X national family planning program accounted for more than half of these benefits. The gross public savings attributed to these services totaled approximately $15.8 billion-$15.7 billion from preventing unplanned births, $123 million from STI/HIV testing, and $23 million from Pap and HPV testing and vaccines. Subtracting $2.2 billion in program costs from gross savings resulted in net public-sector savings of $13.6 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Public expenditures for the US family planning program not only prevented unintended pregnancies but also reduced the incidence and impact of preterm and LBW births, STIs, infertility, and cervical cancer. This investment saved the government billions of public dollars, equivalent to an estimated taxpayer savings of $7.09 for every public dollar spent.

Risk of cervical HPV infection and prevalence of vaccine-type and other high-risk HPV types among sexually active teens and young women (13-26 years) enrolled in the VALHIDATE study

HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer. The greatest and the earliest health gains will be ensured by high vaccine coverage among all susceptible people. The high costs and the risk of a reduced cost/effectiveness ratio in sexually active girls still represent the main obstacles for a more widespread use of HPV vaccination in many countries. Data on the rate, risk factors, and HPV types in sexually active women could provide information for the evaluation of vaccination policies extended to broader age cohorts.

Sexually active women aged 13–26 years enrolled in an Italian cohort study were screened for cervical HPV infections; HPV-DNA positive samples were genotyped by InnoLipa HPV Genotyping Extra or by RFLP genotype analysis.

Among the 796 women meeting the inclusion criteria, 10.80% (95% CI 8.65–12.96) were HPV-DNA infected. Age >18 years, lifetime sexual partners >1, and history of STIs were associated to higher risk of HPV infection in the multivariable models adjusted for age, lifetime sexual partners, and time of sexual exposure. The global prevalence of the four HPV vaccine-types was 3.02% (95% CI 1.83–4.20) and the cumulative probability of infection from at least one vaccine-type was 12.82% in 26-years-old women and 0.78% in 18-years-old women.

Our data confirm most of the previously reported findings on the risk factors for HPV infections. The low prevalence of the HPV vaccine-types found may be useful for the evaluation of the cost/efficacy and the cost/effectiveness of broader immunization programs beyond the 12-years-old cohort.

Estimates of the timing of reductions in genital warts and high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia after onset of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United States

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to estimate the number of years after onset of a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program before notable reductions in genital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) will occur in teenagers and young adults in the United States.

METHODS

We applied a previously published model of HPV vaccination in the United States and focused on the timing of reductions in genital warts among both sexes and reductions in CIN 2/3 among females. Using different coverage scenarios, the lowest being consistent with current 3-dose coverage in the United States, we estimated the number of years before reductions of 10%, 25%, and 50% would be observed after onset of an HPV vaccination program for ages 12-26 years.

RESULTS

The model suggested female-only HPV vaccination in the intermediate coverage scenario will result in a 10% reduction in genital warts within 2-4 years for females aged 15-19 years and a 10% reduction in CIN 2/3 among females aged 20-29 years within 7-11 years. Coverage had a major impact on when reductions would be observed. For example, in the higher coverage scenario a 25% reduction in CIN2/3 would be observed with 8 years compared with 15 years in the lower coverage scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model provides estimates of the potential timing and magnitude of the impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 at the population level in the United States. Notable, population-level impacts of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 can occur within a few years after onset of vaccination, particularly among younger age groups. Our results are generally consistent with early reports of declines in genital warts among youth.