Vaccines as a tool to estimate the burden of severe influenza in children of low-resourced areas (November 30-December 1, 2012, Les Pensieres, Veyrier-du-Lac, France)

Use of Chest Radiography Examination as a Probe for Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Impact on Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in Young Children

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired alveolar pneumonia (CAAP) is considered a bacterial disease, mainly pneumococcal. CAAP rates markedly declined following 7- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introductions worldwide. In contrast, non-CAAP lower respiratory tract infections (NA-LRIs) are generally not considered pneumococcal diseases. We assessed CAAP, NA-LRIs, and overall visits with chest radiograph (CXR) examination rates in the pediatric emergency room in southern Israel before and after PCV implementation.

METHODS

This was an ongoing, prospective observational study. Our hospital serves a captive population of approximately 75 000 children aged <5 years, enabling incidence calculation. PCV7 and PCV13 were implemented in Israel in July 2009 and November 2010, respectively. All CXRs were analyzed according to the World Health Organization Standardization of Interpretation. We calculated CAAP, NA-LRI, and CXR examinations annual incidences from 2004 to 2017 and incidence rate ratios comparing the PCV13 (2014-2017) with the pre-PCV (2004-2008) periods.

RESULTS

Overall, 72 746 CXR examinations were recorded: 14% CAAP and 86% NA-LRI. CAAP, NA-LRI, and CXR examination visit rates declined by 49%, 34%, and 37%, respectively. This pattern was seen in Jewish and Bedouin children (the 2 ethnically distinct populations), with steeper declines observed among Jewish children and children aged >12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

PCV7/PCV13 implementation resulted in a marked decline in CAAP and overall visits with CXR examination rates in young children. Overall, approximately 14 750 hospital visits with CXR were prevented annually per 100 000 population aged <5 years. These findings suggest that although NA-LRIs are usually not considered pneumococcal, many can be prevented by PCVs.Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7/PCV13) implementation resulted in significant declines in community-acquired alveolar pneumonia (CAAP) and overall chest radiography examination rates in young children. Although non-CAAP lower respiratory tract infections are usually not considered pneumococcal, many can be prevented by PCVs.

Lessons From Influenza Pandemics of the Last 100 Years

Seasonal influenza is an annual occurrence, but it is the threat of pandemics that produces universal concern. Recurring reports of avian influenza viruses severely affecting humans have served as constant reminders of the potential for another pandemic. Review of features of the 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent ones helps in identifying areas where attention in planning is critical. Key among such issues are likely risk groups and which interventions to employ. Past pandemics have repeatedly underscored, for example, the vulnerability of groups such as pregnant women and taught other lessons valuable for future preparedness. While a fundamental difficulty in planning for the next pandemic remains their unpredictability and infrequency, this uncertainty can be mitigated, in part, by optimizing the handling of the much more predictable occurrence of seasonal influenza. Improvements in antivirals and novel vaccine formulations are critical in lessening the impact of both pandemic and seasonal influenza.

Use of Typhoid Vi-Polysaccharide Vaccine as a Vaccine Probe to Delineate Clinical Criteria for Typhoid Fever

Blood cultures (BCs) detect an estimated 50% of typhoid fever cases. There is need for validated clinical criteria to define cases that are BC negative, both to help direct empiric antibiotic treatment and to better evaluate the magnitude of protection conferred by typhoid vaccines. To derive and validate a clinical rule for defining BC-negative typhoid fever, we assessed, in a cluster-randomized effectiveness trial of Vi-polysaccharide (ViPS) typhoid vaccine in Kolkata, India, 14,797 episodes of fever lasting at least 3 days during 4 years of comprehensive, BC-based surveillance of 70,865 persons. A recursive partitioning algorithm was used to develop a decision rule to predict BC-proven typhoid cases with a diagnostic specificity of 97–98%. To validate this rule as a definition for BC-negative typhoid fever, we assessed whether the rule defined culture-negative syndromes prevented by ViPS vaccine. In a training subset of individuals, we identified the following two rules: rule 1: patients aged < 15 years with prolonged fever accompanied by a measured body temperature ≥ 100°F, headache, and nausea; rule 2: patients aged ≥ 15 years with prolonged fever accompanied by nausea and palpable liver but without constipation. The adjusted protective efficacy of ViPS against clinical typhoid defined by these rules in persons aged ≥ 2 years in a separate validation subset was 33% (95% CI: 4–53%). We have defined and validated a clinical rule for predicting BC-negative typhoid fever using a novel vaccine probe approach. If validated in other settings, this rule may be useful to guide clinical care and to enhance typhoid vaccine evaluations.

Progress and Remaining Gaps in Estimating the Global Disease Burden of Influenza

Influenza has long been a global public health priority because of the threat of another global pandemic. Although data are available for the annual burden of seasonal influenza in many developed countries, fewer disease burden data are available for low-income and tropical countries. In recent years, however, the surveillance systems created as part of national pandemic preparedness efforts have produced substantial data on the epidemiology and impact of influenza in countries where data were sparse. These data are leading to greater interest in seasonal influenza, including implementation of vaccination programs. However, a lack of quality data on severe influenza, nonrespiratory outcomes, and high-risk groups, as well as a need for better mathematical models and economic evaluations, are some of the major gaps that remain. These gaps are the focus of multilateral research and surveillance efforts that will strengthen global efforts in influenza control in the future.

Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.

METHODS

We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.

FINDINGS

Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11·6-21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3·5-7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0-12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000).

INTERPRETATION

This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Experience and challenges on influenza and pertussis vaccination in pregnant women

Young infants contribute to relatively high burden of vaccine-preventable diseases, including infections by influenza virus and Bordetella pertussis. Vaccination of pregnant women can enhance transplacental transfer of protective antibody to the fetus and protect the infant against disease during the first few months of life.

Pregnant women are a priority group for seasonal influenza vaccination, due to third-trimester pregnancy being a risk-factor for severe influenza illness. Furthermore, randomized controlled trials confirmed that influenza vaccination during pregnancy confers protection against influenza-confirmed illness in the women, and their infants up to 3 months of age; and is also associated with 20% reduction in all-cause pneumonia among young-infants. Maternal influenza vaccination might also reduce the risk of low-birth weight, preterm births, and stillbirths however, data on this is conflicting.

Vaccination of pregnant women with acellular pertussis vaccines reduces pertussis in their young infants by up to 93%. The increase in specific pertussis antibody among the infants born to vaccinated women might, however, interfere with the active pertussis vaccination of the infant following the primary series of vaccines. The clinical implication of this is yet to be ascertained, particularly since immune responses following the booster vaccine are unaffected.

Vaccination of pregnant women with inactivated influenza vaccine and acellular pertussis vaccine have been demonstrated to confer protection to their young infants, and warrants consideration for inclusion into public health immunization programs, including in low and middle income countries.

Prevention of influenza-related illness in young infants by maternal vaccination during pregnancy

The influenza virus circulates yearly and causes global epidemics. Influenza infection affects all age groups and causes mild to severe illness, and young infants are at particular risk for serious disease. The most effective measure to prevent influenza disease is vaccination; however, no vaccine is licensed for use in infants younger than 6 months old. Thus, there is a crucial need for other preventive strategies in this high-risk age group. Influenza vaccination during pregnancy protects both the mothers and the young infants against influenza infection. Vaccination during pregnancy boosts the maternal antibodies and increases the transfer of immunoglobulin G from the mother to the fetus through the placenta, which confers protection against infection in infants too young to be vaccinated. Data from clinical trials and observational studies did not demonstrate adverse effects to the mother, the fetus, or the infant after maternal influenza vaccination. We present the current data on the effectiveness and safety of influenza vaccination during pregnancy in preventing disease in the young infant.

Influenza immunization of pregnant women in resource-constrained countries: an update for funding and implementation decisions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In 2018, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, is expected to review the strategy of maternal influenza immunization for potential investment in low-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

Clinical trial data confirm the efficacy of maternal influenza immunization to prevent influenza disease in both mothers and their infants during the first months of life. Trial and observational data indicate no significant adverse events in mothers or newborns. High-quality disease burden data, particularly for seasonal influenza in low-income and middle-income countries, are limited. Thus, the anticipated impact of maternal influenza immunization programs on severe illness is unclear. However, assessments of the public health value of investment in maternal influenza immunization should extend beyond calculations of disease prevention and include broader effects such as improving health systems for antenatal care delivery, preventing inappropriate antibacterial prescribing, building a platform for other vaccines to be used during pregnancy, and strengthening systems to regulate, procure, and distribute influenza vaccines in response to a future pandemic.

SUMMARY

A global investment in a maternal influenza immunization strategy would prevent influenza disease in pregnant women and their infants. It would also provide additional public health value by strengthening antenatal care systems and improving country pandemic preparedness.

Report on eighth WHO meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses: Chicago, USA, 23-24 August 2016

In August 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened the "Eighth meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses" to discuss the regulatory requirements and pathways for licensure of next-generation influenza vaccines, and to identify areas where WHO can promote the development of such vaccines. Participants included approximately 120 representatives of academia, the vaccine industry, research and development funders, and regulatory and public health agencies. They reviewed the draft WHO preferred product characteristics (PPCs) of vaccines that could address prioritized unmet public health needs and discussed the challenges facing the development of such vaccines, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). They defined the data desired by public-health decision makers globally and explored how to support the progression of promising candidates into late-stage clinical trials and for all countries. This report highlights the major discussions of the meeting.

The risk of lower respiratory tract infection following influenza virus infection: A systematic and narrative review

Background

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly in young children and older adults. Influenza is known to cause severe disease but the risk of developing LRTI following influenza virus infection in various populations has not been systematically reviewed. Such data are important for estimating the impact specific influenza vaccine programs would have on LRTI outcomes in a community. We sought to review the published literature to determine the risk of developing LRTI following an influenza virus infection in individuals of any age.

Methods and findings

We conducted a systematic review to identify prospective studies that estimated the incidence of LRTI following laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection. We searched PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases for relevant literature. We supplemented this search with a narrative review of influenza and LRTI. The systematic review identified two prospective studies that both followed children less than 5 years. We also identified one additional pediatric study from our narrative review meeting the study inclusion criteria. Finally, we summarized recent case-control studies on the etiology of pneumonia in both adults and children.

Conclusions

There is a dearth of prospective studies evaluating the risk of developing LRTI following influenza virus infection. Determining the burden of severe LRTI that is attributable to influenza is necessary to estimate the benefits of influenza vaccine on this important public health outcome. Vaccine probe studies are an efficient way to evaluate these questions and should be encouraged going forward.

Influenza epidemiology and immunization during pregnancy: Final report of a World Health Organization working group

From 2014 to 2017, the World Health Organization convened a working group to evaluate influenza disease burden and vaccine efficacy to inform estimates of maternal influenza immunization program impact. The group evaluated existing systematic reviews and relevant primary studies, and conducted four new systematic reviews. There was strong evidence that maternal influenza immunization prevented influenza illness in pregnant women and their infants, although data on severe illness prevention were lacking. The limited number of studies reporting influenza incidence in pregnant women and infants under six months had highly variable estimates and underrepresented low- and middle-income countries. The evidence that maternal influenza immunization reduces the risk of adverse birth outcomes was conflicting, and many observational studies were subject to substantial bias. The lack of scientific clarity regarding disease burden or magnitude of vaccine efficacy against severe illness poses challenges for robust estimation of the potential impact of maternal influenza immunization programs.

Influenza: A Global Perspective

Influenza is a common respiratory illness in children and accounts for substantial morbidity and mortality on an annual basis. Inactivated and live influenza vaccines are approved for children and are safe and efficacious. The absolute effectiveness of vaccines varies by year and is influenced by several factors. The reason for recent reduced performance of live-attenuated influenza vaccines is poorly understood, and active research is ongoing. Vaccination programs are less common in tropical and subtropical countries, where unique logistical and feasibility challenges exist. Antiviral medications for prevention and treatment of influenza in children are an important adjunct to vaccines.

Maternal influenza and birth outcomes: systematic review of comparative studies

BACKGROUND

Although pregnant women are considered at high risk for severe influenza disease, comparative studies of maternal influenza and birth outcomes have not been comprehensively summarised.

OBJECTIVE

To review comparative studies evaluating maternal influenza disease and birth outcomes.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched bibliographic databases from inception to December 2014.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies of preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birth or fetal death, comparing women with and without clinical influenza illness or laboratory-confirmed influenza infection during pregnancy.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality.

MAIN RESULTS

Heterogeneity across 16 studies reporting preterm birth precluded meta-analysis. In a subgroup of the highest-quality studies, two reported significantly increased preterm birth (risk ratios (RR) from 2.4 to 4.0) following severe 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza illness, whereas those assessing mild-to-moderate pH1N1 or seasonal influenza found no association. Five studies of SGA birth showed no discernible patterns with respect to influenza disease severity (pooled odds ratio 1.24; 95% CI 0.96-1.59). Two fetal death studies were of sufficient quality and size to permit meaningful interpretation. Both reported an increased risk of fetal death following maternal pH1N1 disease (RR 1.9 for mild-to-moderate disease and 4.2 for severe disease).

CONCLUSIONS

Comparative studies of preterm birth, SGA birth and fetal death following maternal influenza disease are limited in number and quality. An association between severe pH1N1 disease and preterm birth and fetal death was reported by several studies; however, these limited data do not permit firm conclusions on the magnitude of any association.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Comparative studies are limited in quality but suggest severe pandemic H1N1 influenza increases preterm birth.

Efficacy of a Russian-backbone live attenuated influenza vaccine among young children in Bangladesh: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background

The rates of influenza illness and associated complications are high among children in Bangladesh. We assessed the clinical efficacy and safety of a Russian-backbone live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) at two field sites in Bangladesh.

Methods

Between Feb 27 and April 9, 2013, children aged 2–4 years in urban Kamalapur and rural Matlab, Bangladesh, were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio, according to a computer-generated schedule, to receive one intranasal dose of LAIV or placebo. After vaccination, we monitored children in weekly home visits until Dec 31, 2013, with study clinic surveillance for influenza illness. The primary outcome was symptomatic, laboratory-confirmed influenza illness due to vaccine-matched strains. Analysis was per protocol. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01797029.

Findings

Of 1761 children enrolled, 1174 received LAIV and 587 received placebo. Laboratory-confirmed influenza illness due to vaccine-matched strains was seen in 93 (15·8%) children in the placebo group and 79 (6·7%) in the LAIV group. Vaccine efficacy of LAIV for vaccine-matched strains was 57·5% (95% CI 43·6–68·0). The vaccine was well tolerated, and adverse events were balanced between the groups. The most frequent adverse events were tachypnoea (n=86 in the LAIV group and n=54 in the placebo group), cough (n=73 and n=43), and runny nose (n=68 and n=39), most of which were mild.

Interpretation

This single-dose Russian-backbone LAIV was safe and efficacious at preventing symptomatic laboratory-confirmed influenza illness due to vaccine-matched strains. LAIV programmes might reduce the burden of influenza illness in Bangladesh.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global Role and Burden of Influenza in Pediatric Respiratory Hospitalizations, 1982-2012: A Systematic Analysis

BACKGROUND

The global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We aggregated data from a systematic review (n = 108) and surveillance platforms (n = 37) to calculate a pooled estimate of the proportion of samples collected from children hospitalized with respiratory illnesses and positive for influenza by age group (<6 mo, <1 y, <2 y, <5 y, 5-17 y, and <18 y). We applied this proportion to global estimates of acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations among children aged <1 y and <5 y, to obtain the number and per capita rate of influenza-associated hospitalizations by geographic region and socio-economic status. Influenza was associated with 10% (95% CI 8%-11%) of respiratory hospitalizations in children <18 y worldwide, ranging from 5% (95% CI 3%-7%) among children <6 mo to 16% (95% CI 14%-20%) among children 5-17 y. On average, we estimated that influenza results in approximately 374,000 (95% CI 264,000 to 539,000) hospitalizations in children <1 y-of which 228,000 (95% CI 150,000 to 344,000) occur in children <6 mo-and 870,000 (95% CI 610,000 to 1,237,000) hospitalizations in children <5 y annually. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates were more than three times higher in developing countries than in industrialized countries (150/100,000 children/year versus 48/100,000). However, differences in hospitalization practices between settings are an important limitation in interpreting these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza is an important contributor to respiratory hospitalizations among young children worldwide. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among young children and pregnant women could reduce this burden and protect infants <6 mo.

Use of vaccines as probes to define disease burden

Vaccine probe studies have emerged in the past 15 years as a useful way to characterise disease. By contrast, traditional studies of vaccines focus on defining the vaccine effectiveness or efficacy. The underlying basis for the vaccine probe approach is that the difference in disease burden between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals can be ascribed to the vaccine-specific pathogen. Vaccine probe studies can increase understanding of a vaccine's public health value. For instance, even when a vaccine has a seemingly low efficacy, a high baseline disease incidence can lead to a large vaccine-preventable disease burden and thus that population-based vaccine introduction would be justified. So far, vaccines have been used as probes to characterise disease syndromes caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcus, rotavirus, and early infant influenza. However, vaccine probe studies have enormous potential and could be used more widely in epidemiology, for example, to define the vaccine-preventable burden of malaria, typhoid, paediatric influenza, and dengue, and to identify causal interactions between different pathogens.

Vaccine preventable disease incidence as a complement to vaccine efficacy for setting vaccine policy

Traditionally, vaccines have been evaluated in clinical trials that establish vaccine efficacy (VE) against etiology-confirmed disease outcomes, a measure important for licensure. Yet, VE does not reflect a vaccine's public health impact because it does not account for relative disease incidence. An additional measure that more directly establishes a vaccine's public health value is the vaccine preventable disease incidence (VPDI), which is the incidence of disease preventable by vaccine in a given context. We describe how VE and VPDI can vary, sometimes in inverse directions, across disease outcomes and vaccinated populations. We provide examples of how VPDI can be used to reveal the relative public health impact of vaccines in developing countries, which can be masked by focus on VE alone. We recommend that VPDI be incorporated along with VE into the analytic plans of vaccine trials, as well as decisions by funders, ministries of health, and regulatory authorities.

Methods to assess the impact of mass oral cholera vaccination campaigns under real field conditions

There is increasing interest to use oral cholera vaccination as an additional strategy to water and sanitation interventions against endemic and epidemic cholera. There are two internationally-available and WHO-prequalified oral cholera vaccines: an inactivated vaccine containing killed whole-cells of V. cholerae O1 with recombinant cholera toxin B-subunit (WC/rBS) and a bivalent inactivated vaccine containing killed whole cells of V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae O139 (BivWC). The efficacy, effectiveness, direct and indirect (herd) protection conferred by WC/rBS and BivWC are well established. Yet governments may need local evidence of vaccine impact to justify and scale-up mass oral cholera vaccination campaigns. We discuss various approaches to assess oral cholera vaccine protection, which may be useful to policymakers and public health workers considering deployment and evaluation of the vaccine.