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Li SL, Acosta AL, Hill SC, Brady OJ, de Almeida MAB, Cardoso JDC, Hamlet A, Mucci LF, Telles de Deus J, Iani FCM, Alexander NS, Wint GRW, Pybus OG, Kraemer MUG, Faria NR, Messina JP. Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010019. [PMID: 34995277 PMCID: PMC8797211 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Revised: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 11/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sabrina L. Li
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- * E-mail: (SLL); (JPM)
| | - André L. Acosta
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Laboratório de Ecologia de Paisagens e Conservação—LEPAC, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Sarah C. Hill
- Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Oliver J. Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marco A. B. de Almeida
- State Centre of Health Surveillance, Rio Grande do Sul State Health Secretariat, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Jader da C. Cardoso
- State Centre of Health Surveillance, Rio Grande do Sul State Health Secretariat, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Arran Hamlet
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Luis F. Mucci
- Superintendence for Endemic Diseases Control, São Paulo State Health Secretariat, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Juliana Telles de Deus
- Superintendence for Endemic Diseases Control, São Paulo State Health Secretariat, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Neil S. Alexander
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, c/o Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - G. R. William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, c/o Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Oliver G. Pybus
- Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Nuno R. Faria
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias & Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jane P. Messina
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- * E-mail: (SLL); (JPM)
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de Oliveira Figueiredo P, Stoffella-Dutra AG, Barbosa Costa G, Silva de Oliveira J, Dourado Amaral C, Duarte Santos J, Soares Rocha KL, Araújo Júnior JP, Lacerda Nogueira M, Zazá Borges MA, Pereira Paglia A, Desiree LaBeaud A, Santos Abrahão J, Geessien Kroon E, Bretas de Oliveira D, Paiva Drumond B, de Souza Trindade G. Re-Emergence of Yellow Fever in Brazil during 2016-2019: Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Perspectives. Viruses 2020; 12:v12111233. [PMID: 33143114 PMCID: PMC7692154 DOI: 10.3390/v12111233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2020] [Revised: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Yellow fever (YF) is a re-emerging viral zoonosis caused by the Yellow Fever virus (YFV), affecting humans and non-human primates (NHP). YF is endemic in South America and Africa, being considered a burden for public health worldwide despite the availability of an effective vaccine. Acute infectious disease can progress to severe hemorrhagic conditions and has high rates of morbidity and mortality in endemic countries. In 2016, Brazil started experiencing one of the most significant YF epidemics in its history, with lots of deaths being reported in regions that were previously considered free of the disease. Here, we reviewed the historical aspects of YF in Brazil, the epidemiology of the disease, the challenges that remain in Brazil’s public health context, the main lessons learned from the recent outbreaks, and our perspective for facing future YF epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Poliana de Oliveira Figueiredo
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
| | - Ana Gabriella Stoffella-Dutra
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
- Correspondence: (A.G.S.-D.); (G.B.C.); (G.d.S.T.); Tel.: +55-31-3409-2747 (G.d.S.T.)
| | - Galileu Barbosa Costa
- Laboratório de Patologia e Biologia Molecular, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rua Waldemar Falcão, 121, Candeal, Salvador Bahia 40296-710, Brazil
- Correspondence: (A.G.S.-D.); (G.B.C.); (G.d.S.T.); Tel.: +55-31-3409-2747 (G.d.S.T.)
| | - Jaqueline Silva de Oliveira
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
| | - Carolina Dourado Amaral
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
| | - Juliane Duarte Santos
- Centro Integrado de Pesquisa em Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri Campus JK, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Rodovia MGT 367, Km 583, nº 5.000 Alto da Jacuba 39100-000, Brazil; (J.D.S.); (K.L.S.R.); (D.B.d.O.)
| | - Kamila Lorene Soares Rocha
- Centro Integrado de Pesquisa em Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri Campus JK, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Rodovia MGT 367, Km 583, nº 5.000 Alto da Jacuba 39100-000, Brazil; (J.D.S.); (K.L.S.R.); (D.B.d.O.)
| | - João Pessoa Araújo Júnior
- Departamento de Microbiologia e Imunologia, Institute of Biotechnology, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, Rio Claro, São Paulo Avenida 24A, 1515, Bela Vista 13506-900, Brazil;
| | - Maurício Lacerda Nogueira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo 15090-000, Brazil;
| | - Magno Augusto Zazá Borges
- Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, Avenida Prof. Rui Braga, s/n, Vila Mauriceia 39408-354, Brazil;
| | - Adriano Pereira Paglia
- Laboratório de Ecologia e Conservação, Departamento de Biologia Geral, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil;
| | - Angelle Desiree LaBeaud
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University School of Medicine, 300 Pasteur Dr Rm G312 MC 5208, Stanford, CA 94305, USA;
| | - Jônatas Santos Abrahão
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
| | - Erna Geessien Kroon
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
| | - Danilo Bretas de Oliveira
- Centro Integrado de Pesquisa em Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri Campus JK, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Rodovia MGT 367, Km 583, nº 5.000 Alto da Jacuba 39100-000, Brazil; (J.D.S.); (K.L.S.R.); (D.B.d.O.)
| | - Betânia Paiva Drumond
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
| | - Giliane de Souza Trindade
- Laboratório de Vírus, Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil; (P.d.O.F.); (J.S.d.O.); (C.D.A.); (J.S.A.); (E.G.K.); (B.P.D.)
- Correspondence: (A.G.S.-D.); (G.B.C.); (G.d.S.T.); Tel.: +55-31-3409-2747 (G.d.S.T.)
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