A socio-psychological investigation into limitations and incentives concerning reporting a clinically suspect situation aimed at improving early detection of classical swine fever outbreaks

A latent class analysis of biosecurity attitudes and decision-making strategies of swine producers in the United States

The 2018 African swine fever (ASF) outbreak highlighted the importance of biosecurity in food production systems. Despite the significant economic impacts, the sociopsychological consequences on decision-making have been overlooked. Previous studies have focused on algebraic models and simulation-based models without considering the complex psychological and social factors that influence farmers' biosecurity behaviors and decision-making processes. This study aims to classify livestock producers into distinct subgroups based on their attitudes towards biosecurity. We conducted a survey presenting producers with three scenarios to assess their willingness to report suspected ASF cases, trust in government agencies, risk perception, biosecurity knowledge, willingness to purchase livestock insurance, motivation to invest in biosecurity, readiness to report suspected infections, and intention to contact a veterinarian. Using latent class analysis, we identified three distinct classes: Biosecurity Sceptics, Biosecurity Compliant, and Biosecurity Ultra-Compliant. Our results show that producer characteristics significantly influence biosecurity attitudes and class membership, with small-scale producers less likely to adopt ultra-compliant biosecurity practices. Attending at least one eradication program encouraged biosecurity compliance. This research informs the design of targeted food policy and risk communication strategies that account for attitudes of livestock producers to encourage biosecurity adoption and reduce the likelihood of Tier 1 disease incursion.

Contribution of the veterinary profession to the Australian animal health surveillance system and opportunities for future contributions

Animal health surveillance is crucial for early detection of emergency animal diseases and effective responses. However, surveillance systems are complex and rely on the contributions of many animal health stakeholders. Veterinarians are key stakeholders in this system, given their role and skills in investigating, diagnosing, and reporting notifiable diseases. This study investigated the contribution of the veterinary workforce to the Australian animal health surveillance system and opportunities for future involvement. To achieve the aims of the study, an online cross-sectional survey among the veterinary profession was conducted. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses were used to provide an overview and investigate drivers of attitudes and practices of veterinarians in relation to animal health surveillance. A total of 311 usable responses were obtained, with 191 being from veterinarians who worked in private practice in the previous 12 months. Among private practitioners, 58.6% worked with companion animals, 34.0% were mixed practice veterinarians and 7.3% were equine veterinarians. Over half (56.6%) of all participants considered themselves active participants in the local animal disease management system. The level of confidence in understanding the reporting system and knowing and identifying signs of endemic and exotic diseases was moderate among those working in private practice, with companion animal veterinarians reporting the lowest levels of confidence (p < 0.05). Approximately 40% of veterinarians had taken samples for diagnosis for notifiable diseases in the last year, with just over 20% reporting a notifiable disease. Awareness of and participation in training and surveillance programs for animal diseases by veterinarians was low, with those working in private practice having lower levels of both awareness and participation for most programs. In relation to potential future contribution to the surveillance system, over half of participants reported being interested and available to undertake surveillance work on behalf of the government, with those in mixed practice reporting higher levels of interest (69.6%) compared to those in companion (49.5%) and equine practice (30.8%). However, key challenges identified were related to perceived conflict of interest, and tensions between client needs and government agenda, followed by profitability and suitability of the business. This study provides evidence of a significant existing contribution by the veterinary profession to the surveillance system, and the capacity and willingness to increase this contribution. However, there are gaps in awareness, confidence and participation, as well as financial and veterinary-client relationship challenges that should be considered in any future planning to strengthen the Australian surveillance system.

The influence of trust and social identity in farmers' intentions to report suspected emergency disease outbreaks

This study examines the influence of trust on farmers' intentions to report suspected disease on their farm. Disease reporting is essential to detect and respond to disease early, thereby minimising its impacts on agriculture businesses, the economy, and the environment. Trust has been identified as an important factor influencing farmers' disease reporting intentions but has not been quantitatively investigated. We use an established model of trust-the Integrative Model of Organisational Trust (IMOT)-to conceptualise how trust influences disease reporting intentions. We also examine how social identity is related to trust and disease reporting. Australian plant, livestock, and aquaculture farmers (N = 41) completed an online questionnaire developed from existing validated measures and we also developed two new measures for disease reporting intentions. Trust in government positively and significantly predicted farmer intentions to report suspected disease outbreaks, explaining 26% of the variance. For every one-unit increase in trust, disease reporting intentions increased by over four times. Results also support the role of shared values and group membership as aspects of social identity that influence trust and disease reporting. These results highlight the importance of government decision-makers developing and maintaining trust with farmers to support early detection and response to emergency disease outbreaks.

Outreach Efforts to Prevent Newcastle Disease Outbreaks in Southern California

In May 2018, an outbreak of virulent Newcastle disease (vND) affected backyard and commercial premises in Southern California. The re-occurrence of these outbreaks since the 1970s suggests that some poultry communities may not have reliable and stable resources available regarding biosecurity and disease prevention. Therefore, staff at the University of California, Davis (UCD) School of Veterinary Medicine (SVM), and the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) began organizing educational events and learning more about the gamefowl breeder community through a needs assessment exercise, during which local feedstores and neighborhoods were also visited. Focus groups were organized with breeders in various cities within the regional quarantine area, established by the CDFA during the vND outbreak. The focus groups were aimed at creating open communication networks with gamefowl breeders in the affected area, as well as to learn about their current sources of information, learning preferences, and current management practices. With the input from gamefowl breeders, as well as funding and input from the CDFA and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), a quality assurance program called the “Gamefowl Wellness Program” was established. Educational content was created and published through the UCD Gamefowl Wellness Program poultry health website. Additionally, with the help of the CDFA, the USDA, and pharmaceutical companies, Newcastle disease vaccines and training for their application were provided to feedstores with gamefowl breeder clientele. Nurturing trust with these poultry communities allowed us to receive the information needed to develop effective outreach strategies that could better serve them. Responding to community concerns might be a way to garner the trust necessary to prevent or at least promptly detect foreign animal disease outbreaks.

Addressing biohazards to food security in primary production

This review addresses ways to prepare for and to mitigate effects of biohazards on primary production of crops and livestock. These biohazards can be natural or intentional introductions of pathogens, and they can cause major economic damage to farmers, the agricultural industry, society, and international trade. Agroterrorism is the intentional introduction of animal or plant pathogens into agricultural production systems with the intention to cause socioeconomic harm and generate public fear. Although few acts of agroterrorism are reported, the threat of agroterrorism in Europe is real. New concerns about threats arise from the rapid advancements in biotechnology and emerging technologies. FORSA, an analytical framework for risk and vulnerability analysis, was used to review how to prepare for and mitigate the possible effects of natural or intentional biohazards in agricultural production. Analyzing the effects of a biohazard event involves multiple scientific disciplines. A comprehensive analysis of biohazards therefore requires a systems approach. The preparedness and ability to manage events are strengthened by bolstered farm biosecurity, increased monitoring and laboratory capacity, improved inter-agency communication and resource allocation. The focus of this review is on Europe, but the insights gained have worldwide applications. The analytical framework used here is compared to other frameworks. With climate change, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, the supply chains are challenged, and we foresee increasing food prices associated with social tensions. Our food supply chain becomes more fragile with more unknowns, thereby increasing the needs for risk and vulnerability analyses, of which FORSA is one example.

Assessment of the foot-and-mouth disease surveillance system in Brazil

In 2021, the 88th General Session of the World Assembly of National Delegates to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) recognized the estates of Acre, Paraná, the Rio Grande do Sul, and Rondônia as being free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) without vaccination. The certification was also extended to some cities in Amazonas and Mato Grosso. The new national strategic plan for 2026, which focuses on creating and maintaining sustainable conditions to expand FMD-free zones without vaccination, imposes new challenges and requires continuous evaluation of the FMD surveillance system. The objective of this research was to evaluate the FMD surveillance system in Brazil using quantitative models through Bayesian network approaches. The research was conducted using the Continental Surveillance and Information System (SivCont) database for Official Veterinary Services in Brazil, which refers to notified vesicular syndromes. The data on states, reported diseases, source of notification, disease confirmation, and timeliness (TL in days) of the delay by owners in notifying (TL.1) after a suspected case of the disease, and the response of Brazilian Veterinary Services after being notified (TL.2), were analysed. The collected data were analysed using Bayesian networks. It was observed that diseases with symptoms identical to FMD are the most notified events. TL.1 was long (mean of 18.96, CI: 18.33-19.59), and a low number of notifications was observed throughout the study period, which increases the chances of disseminating FMD in the population. Meanwhile, TL.2 suggests appropriate effectiveness of the Veterinary Services responding to suspected cases of FMD with interventions in less than 24 h (mean of 1, CI: 0.68-1.31). This study evaluated the performance of Brazilian Veterinary Services facing the report of vesicular diseases in the period 2004-2018. The results can help the states improve the surveillance system and the transition to the vaccination stop. Furthermore, the analytical method presented in the paper could serve as a model for other countries to evaluate the effectiveness of FMD surveillance systems.

A Survey of Experts’ Opinions on the Management of the Small Hive Beetle in Italy

The exotic alien species Aethina tumida, commonly known as the small hive beetle (SHB), was first detected in the Italian region of Calabria in 2014. The SHB is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and is established in North and Central America, Australia, and many other world regions. Little is known about the effects of SHB introduction in new regions. This article focuses on the economic and regulatory aspects of SHB invasions. It presents the results of a survey questionnaire administered to Italian bee experts and extension agents in the spring of 2019, which documents opinions about the SHB invasion and its management in Italy. The results show that the SHB and Varroa are perceived as major threats to bee health. Over half of respondents agree that SHB eradication is no longer an attainable policy objective in Calabria, and support a policy shift from eradication to control of SHBs. Among respondents, extension agents are the most likely to agree with the need for a policy adjustment. Additional scientific and economic evidence and analysis can help resolve the differences in the opinions of stakeholders about feasible or preferable management policies for the SHB, and crucially, ensure the participation of beekeepers in the surveillance and control efforts.

Proof of Proficiency of Decentralized Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Diagnostics in Germany

A proficiency test was performed to verify that the regional veterinary laboratories in Germany can provide reliable foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) diagnostics. Overall, 24 samples were to be analyzed for FMDV-specific nucleic acids by real-time RT-PCR, and 16 samples had to be tested by ELISA for antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMDV. For both methods, a range of dilutions of the original materials (inactivated FMDV vaccine or convalescent serum from infected animals, respectively) was prepared, and negative samples were included as well. All 23 participating laboratories were able to detect FMDV genome down to a dilution of 1:100,000 of the vaccine preparation. Even at a dilution of 1:1,000,000, FMDV genome was detected by more than half of the participants. With the antibody ELISA, all sera were correctly identified by all participating laboratories. No false-positive results were returned with either method. All participating laboratories were found to be fully proficient in FMDV diagnostics.

A systematic review of social research data collection methods used to investigate voluntary animal disease reporting behaviour

Voluntary detection of emerging disease outbreaks is considered essential for limiting their potential impacts on livestock industries. However, many of the strategies employed by animal health authorities to capture data on potential emerging disease threats rely on farmers and veterinarians identifying situations of concern and then voluntarily taking appropriate actions to notify animal health authorities. To improve the performance of these systems, it is important to understand the range of socio-cultural factors influencing the willingness of individuals to engage with disease reporting such as trust in government, perceived economic impacts, social stigma and perceptions of 'good farming'. The objectives of this systematic review were to assess how different social research methodologies have been employed to understand the role these socio-cultural dimensions play in voluntary disease reporting and to discuss limitations to address in future research. The review uncovered 39 relevant publications that employed a range of quantitative and qualitative methodologies including surveys, interviews, focus groups, scenarios, observations, mixed-methods, interventions and secondary data analysis. While these studies provided valuable insights, one significant challenge remains eliciting accurate statements of behaviour and intentions rather than those that reflect desirable social norms. There is scope to develop methodological innovations to study the decision to report animal disease to help overcome the gap between what people say they do and their observable behaviour. A notable absence is studies exploring specific interventions designed to encourage disease reporting. Greater clarity in specifying the disease contexts, behavioural mechanisms and outcomes and the relationships between them would provide a more theoretically informed and policy relevant understanding of how disease reporting works, for which farmers, and in which disease contexts.

Factors influencing the performance of voluntary farmer disease reporting in passive surveillance systems: A scoping review

The impacts of exotic disease incursions on livestock industries can be mitigated by having robust surveillance systems in place that decrease the time between disease introduction and detection. An important component of this is having farmers routinely observe their animals for indications of clinical disease, recognise the existence of problems, and then decide to notify their veterinarian or animal health authorities. However, as highlighted by this literature review, farmers are believed to be underreporting clinical events due to factors such as (1) uncertainty around the clinical signs and situations that warrant reporting, (2) fear over the social and economic consequences from both positive and false positive reports, (3) negative beliefs regarding the efficacy and outcomes of response measures, (4) mistrust and dissatisfaction with animal health authorities, (5) absence of sufficiently attractive financial and non-financial incentives for submitting reports, and (6) poor awareness of the procedures involved with the submission, processing, and response to reports. There have been few formal studies evaluating the efficacy of different approaches to increasing farmer engagement with disease reporting. However, there is a recognised need for any proposed solutions to account for farmer knowledge and experience with assessing their own farm situation as well as the different identities, motivations, and beliefs that farmers have about their role in animal health surveillance systems. Empowering farmers to take a more active role in developing these solutions is likely to become even more important as animal health authorities increasingly look to establish public-private partnerships for biosecurity governance.

Evaluation of the sensitivity of the classical swine fever surveillance system in two free zones in Colombia

Infection with the classical swine fever virus (CSFV) causes a disease in pigs that ranges from a hyperacute form in which animals die in a few hours to subclinical disease. Due to this wide range of virulence, several complementary surveillance strategies should be implemented for the early detection of the disease. The objective of the present study was to determine the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect CSFV outbreaks in a free zone (Zone 1) and in a zone undergoing an eradication process (Zone 2) in Colombia. Stochastic scenario tree models were used to describe the population and surveillance structures and to determine the probability of CSFV detection. The total sensitivity of the surveillance system in the case of a single infected farm in Zone 1 was 31.4% (CI 95%: 7.2-54.1) and in the case of 5 infected farms was 85.2% (CI 95%: 67.3-93.7), while in Zone 2 the sensitivities were 27.8% (CI 95%: 6.4-55.1) and 82.5% (CI 95%: 65-92.9), respectively. The on-farm passive surveillance shows the highest sensitivity for detection of a single CSFV infected farm in both zones (22.8% in Zone 1 and 22.5% in Zone 2). The probability of detection was higher in a family / backyard premise than on a commercial farm in both zones. The passive surveillance at slaughterhouse had a sensitivity of 5.3% and 4.5% for the detection of a single infected farm in Zone 1 and 2, respectively. Active surveillance presented a range of sensitivity between 2.2% and 4.5%. In conclusion, the sensitivity of the surveillance in the two studied zones was quite high, one of reasons for this good sensitivity being the sentinel network based on the voluntary participation of 5,500 collaborators that were trained for the identification and notification of diseases of national interest.

Non-discriminatory Exclusion Testing as a Tool for the Early Detection of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Incursions

Endemic circulation of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Africa and Asia poses a continuous risk to countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania which are free from the disease. Introductions of the disease into a free region have dramatic economic impacts, especially if they are not detected at an early stage and controlled rapidly. However, farmers and veterinarians have an obvious disincentive to report clinical signs that are consistent with FMD, due to the severe consequences of raising an official suspicion, such as farm-level quarantine. One way that the risk of late detection can be mitigated is offering non-discriminatory exclusion testing schemes for differential diagnostics, wherein veterinarians can submit samples without the involvement of the competent authority and without sanctions or costs for the farmer. This review considers the benefits and limitations of this approach to improve the early detection of FMD in free countries and gives an overview of the FMD testing schemes currently in use in selected countries in Europe and the Americas as well as in Australia.

Shifting to foot-and-mouth disease-free status without vaccination: Application of the PROMETHEE method to assist in the development of a foot-and-mouth national program in Uruguay

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious, and the introduction of FMD virus in countries free of the disease can result in large epidemics, similar to those observed in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Uruguay. Many countries or regions of South America are recognized as "FMD-free with vaccination" or "FMD-free without vaccination." Uruguay has been certified as FMD-free with vaccination, and the transition to the status of FMD-free without vaccination has been discussed among the stakeholders of the Ministry of Livestock Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP in Spanish). This study illustrates how the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) can identify and rank alternative actions to be used in the national FMD program in Uruguay. It uses multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to structure the problem comprehensively. This helps to identify critical issues and potential solutions when planning a national FMD program for a country with a disease-free without vaccination status. The analysis highlighted the following perspectives: i) the importance of communication strategies as the country changes to "FMD-free without vaccination" status, as well as potential challenges such as a lack of trust in government; ii) the importance of enhancing epidemiological capacity and data management to allocate resources better and provide feedback from the surveillance system; iii) the need to re-evaluate the animal health compensation strategy to stimulate biosecurity and disease reporting; and iv) the importance of assisting the backyard pig sector given the risks it carries and the complexity of dealing with because of its informality, the educational status of its owners, and the lack of formal assistance by veterinary services. The results suggests that the MCDA approach could be a useful tool for animal health agencies when planning a program to eliminate FMD (as well as other diseases) in a structured way because it helps to identify which alternatives would yield more effective results and it helps to address future challenges.

Descriptive epidemiology of classical swine fever outbreaks in the period 2013-2018 in Colombia

Classical swine fever (CSF) is an infectious viral disease caused by an RNA virus belonging to the Pestivirus genus. A total of 134 outbreaks of CSF have occurred in the last seven years in the North of Colombia. The objective of this study was the characterization of the herds affected by CSF from 2013 to 2018. Most of the outbreaks (95%) occured in backyard piggeries. The principal causes of transmission of CSF were the introduction of infected pigs (38%), movements of people (37%) and unknown origin (13%). The epidemiological relationships with 15 affected farms explained 31 outbreaks. The overall attack and mortality rates were 39% and 32%, respectively. The main clinical signs were high fever (67%), incoordination of movements (54%), and prostration (52%). Seventy-three percent of the herds had not been vaccinated against CSF and 17% had been only partially vaccinated. A spatio-temporal analysis, using a Poisson regression model, revealed two clusters with high risk; the first and largest one from 2014 to 2016 had a relative risk (RR) of 13.4 and included part of the departments of Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, La Guajira, Norte de Santander, Magdalena and Sucre; and the second cluster (RR = 9.6 in 2016) included municipalities in the north of the department of Cordoba.

Qualitative Research for One Health: From Methodological Principles to Impactful Applications

The One Health concept has inspired a rich vein of applied research and scholarly reflection over the past decade, yet with little influence from qualitative methodologists. With this overview, we describe the underpinning assumptions, purposes, and potential pitfalls of data collection techniques and methods of data analysis in key qualitative research methodologies. Our aim is to enhance One Health collaborations involving qualitative researchers, veterinary epidemiologists, and veterinary economists. There exist several distinct traditions of qualitative research, from which we draw selectively for illustrative purposes. Notwithstanding important distinctions, we emphasize commonalities and the potential for collaborative impact. The most important commonality is a shared focus on contextualizing human behavior and experience–culturally, economically, historically, and socially. We demonstrate that in-depth attention to context can assist veterinary economists and epidemiologists in drawing lessons from the implementation of policies and programs. In other words, qualitative researchers can assist One Health teams in distilling insights from “success stories,” but also from adverse events and unintended consequences. As a result, qualitative researchers can contribute to One Health research and policy discussions by formulating more accurate and contextually-relevant parameters for future quantitative studies. When performed well, qualitative methodologies can help veterinary economists and epidemiologists to develop impactful research questions, to create more accurate and contextually-relevant parameters for quantitative studies, and to develop policy recommendations and interventions that are attuned to the political and socio-cultural context of their implementation. In sketching out the properties and features of influential methodologies, we underscore the value of working with seasoned qualitative researchers to incorporate questions about “what,” “how,” and “why” in mixed-methods research designs.

Improving Village Animal Health Worker participation in national disease surveillance systems: A case study from Cambodia

Para-veterinary systems have arisen in numerous developing countries to address the low capacity of national veterinary services in meeting livestock health demands of mainly smallholder farmers. In Cambodia, the village animal health worker (VAHW) system was established in the early 1990s, involving short training programmes to equip VAHWs to provide basic animal health services for smallholder farmers, particularly the vaccination of cattle for haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS). However, there are increasing expectations that VAHWs provide village level disease surveillance information to the national veterinary services, despite their low-level disease diagnostic skills. To identify opportunities to improve the disease reporting system in Cambodia, a closed-ended cross-sectional study of VAHWs (n = 80) from two provinces was conducted in 2015, examining their contact frequency with district and provincial animal health authorities. Ordinal logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with increased frequency of VAHW contact with the district animal health authorities responsible for national disease reporting. Positive associations between income generated from VAHW activities (p = .01) and the frequency of visiting farmers (p < .0001), with more frequent contacts with district animal health authorities, were identified. High levels of inappropriate use of antibiotics, with almost 90% of VAHW reporting they use antibiotics to treat FMD-affected animals, were reported. Although further research to increase the rates of reporting at the smallholder farmer and VAHW levels is required, increased emphasis on complying with the World Organisation for Animal Health's competency guidelines for veterinary paraprofessionals may be required if they are expected to contribute to national animal disease surveillance systems.

Animal Health Management Practices Among Smallholder Livestock Producers in Australia and Their Contribution to the Surveillance System

The risks posed for disease introduction and spread are believed to be higher for smallholder livestock producers than commercial producers. Possible reasons for this is the notion that smallholders do not implement appropriate animal health management practices and are not part of traditional livestock communication networks. These factors contribute to the effectiveness of passive disease surveillance systems. A cross-sectional study, using a postal survey (n = 1,140) and group interviews (28 participants in three groups), was conducted to understand the animal health management and communication practices of smallholders keeping sheep, cattle, pigs, dairy goats and alpacas in Australia. These practices are crucial for an effective passive surveillance system. Findings indicate that there is a need for improvement in animal health management practices, such as contact with veterinarians and attitudes toward reporting. Results also indicate that these practices differ depending on the livestock species kept, with sheep ownership being associated with lower engagement with surveillance activities and smallholders keeping dairy goats and alpacas having in general better practices. Other factors associated with surveillance practices among participant smallholders are gender and years of experience raising livestock. Despite the differences observed, over 80% of all smallholders actively seek information on the health of their livestock, with private veterinarians considered to be a trusted source. Emergency animal diseases are not a priority among smallholders, however they are concerned about the health of their animals. The finding that veterinarians were identified by producers to be the first point of contact in the event of unusual signs of disease, strengthens the argument that private veterinarians play a vital role in improving passive surveillance. Other producers are also a point of contact for animal health advice, with government agencies less likely to be contacted. The effectiveness of on-farm passive surveillance could be enhanced by developing strategies involving both private veterinarians and producers as key stakeholders, which aim to improve awareness of disease and disease reporting responsibilities.

Impact of Imperfect Disease Detection on the Identification of Risk Factors in Veterinary Epidemiology

Risk factors are key epidemiological concepts that are used to explain disease distributions. Identifying disease risk factors is generally done by comparing the characteristics of diseased and non-diseased populations. However, imperfect disease detectability generates disease observations that do not necessarily represent accurately the true disease situation. In this study, we conducted an extensive simulation exercise to emphasize the impact of imperfect disease detection on the outcomes of logistic models when case reports are aggregated at a larger scale (e.g., diseased animals aggregated at farm level). We used a probabilistic framework to simulate both the disease distribution in herds and imperfect detectability of the infected animals in these herds. These simulations show that, under logistic models, true herd-level risk factors are generally correctly identified but their associated odds ratio are heavily underestimated as soon as the sensitivity of the detection is less than one. If the detectability of infected animals is not only imperfect but also heterogeneous between herds, the variables associated with the detection heterogeneity are likely to be incorrectly identified as risk factors. This probability of type I error increases with increasing heterogeneity of the detectability, and with decreasing sensitivity. Finally, the simulations highlighted that, when count data is available (e.g., number of infected animals in herds), they should not be reduced to a presence/absence dataset at the herd level (e.g., presence or not of at least one infected animal) but rather modeled directly using zero-inflated count models which are shown to be much less sensitive to imperfect detectability issues. In light of these simulations, we revisited the analysis of the French bovine abortion surveillance data, which has already been shown to be characterized by imperfect and heterogeneous abortion detectability. As expected, we found substantial differences between the quantitative outputs of the logistic model and those of the zero-inflated Poisson model. We conclude by strongly recommending that efforts should be made to account for, or at the very least discuss, imperfect disease detectability when assessing associations between putative risk factors and observed disease distributions, and advocate the use of zero-inflated count models if count data is available.

A framework for reviewing livestock disease reporting systems in high-risk areas: assessing performance and perceptions towards foot and mouth disease reporting in the Thrace region of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey

Disease reporting is an essential frontline component of surveillance systems, particularly for detecting incursions of new and emerging diseases. It has the advantages of being comprehensive and continuous, with the potential to reduce the time of disease detection and the extent of consequent spread. A number of exotic diseases, including sheep and goat pox, lumpy skin disease, peste des petits ruminants and foot and mouth disease have historically entered into south-eastern Europe through the Thrace region, which extends across neighbouring areas of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey. In this high-risk area, multiple factors can reduce the sensitivity of disease reporting across the diverse production systems and animal health services need robust and effective disease reporting systems. While describing a training exercise designed to provide animal health services of the three countries with the knowledge and skills for conducting comprehensive in-country assessments, we provide an initial evaluation of the sensitivity of foot and mouth disease reporting and identify gaps and constraints in the Thrace region. An expert elicitation approach was used to consult official veterinarians from central and local animal health authorities of the three countries, and scenario trees modelling was applied to analyse the collected data. The reported sensitivity of disease reporting often varied between the central and local veterinary authorities within the three countries. Awareness of clinical disease, of reporting procedures and of biosecurity measures affected the early stages of disease reporting, particularly in the production systems identified at lower reporting sensitivity such as small ruminant's herds, mixed bovine herds and backyard herds. Despite its limitations this training exercise provided an effective framework (a) to develop capacities of the veterinary services in the region and (b) to supply initial evidence for guiding further interventions targeting those sectors and stakeholders at lower reporting sensitivity to reduce risks of disease introduction.

Challenges and Opportunities Developing Mathematical Models of Shared Pathogens of Domestic and Wild Animals

Diseases that affect both wild and domestic animals can be particularly difficult to prevent, predict, mitigate, and control. Such multi-host diseases can have devastating economic impacts on domestic animal producers and can present significant challenges to wildlife populations, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Few mathematical models exist that capture the complexities of these multi-host pathogens, yet the development of such models would allow us to estimate and compare the potential effectiveness of management actions for mitigating or suppressing disease in wildlife and/or livestock host populations. We conducted a workshop in March 2014 to identify the challenges associated with developing models of pathogen transmission across the wildlife-livestock interface. The development of mathematical models of pathogen transmission at this interface is hampered by the difficulties associated with describing the host-pathogen systems, including: (1) the identity of wildlife hosts, their distributions, and movement patterns; (2) the pathogen transmission pathways between wildlife and domestic animals; (3) the effects of the disease and concomitant mitigation efforts on wild and domestic animal populations; and (4) barriers to communication between sectors. To promote the development of mathematical models of transmission at this interface, we recommend further integration of modern quantitative techniques and improvement of communication among wildlife biologists, mathematical modelers, veterinary medicine professionals, producers, and other stakeholders concerned with the consequences of pathogen transmission at this important, yet poorly understood, interface.

Understanding the biosecurity monitoring and reporting intentions of livestock producers: Identifying opportunities for behaviour change

In many countries, government strategies for biosecurity planning and outbreaks depend upon private livestock producers being willing and able to conduct surveillance of their animals and the timely reporting of suspicious signs of disease. From a behavioural perspective, these two kinds of behaviours - surveillance and reporting - should be treated separately when developing a biosecurity plan in which producers play a key role in the prevention, detection, and reporting of animal diseases. Having an effective surveillance system in place is conceptually and practically independent of a reporting system that is both feasible and trustworthy. The behavioural intentions of 200 Australian producers to monitor their livestock and report to either the government or a private vet were measured in a structured telephone interview. Structural equation modelling revealed that these intentions had different statistical relationships with a common set of predictor variables. Moreover, classification of the producers based on belief about monitoring and surveillance resulted in three contrasting groups. These results are discussed in terms of their meaning for the development of behavioural strategies to promote surveillance and monitoring of animal disease.

Application of discrete choice experiment to assess farmers' willingness to report swine diseases in the Red River Delta region, Vietnam

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is carried out to value socio-economic factors influencing the farmer's decision to report swine diseases and to assess the willingness of farmers to report swine diseases. Data were collected between March and July 2015 in two provinces in the Red River Delta, Northern Vietnam, from 196 pig producers by face-to face interview. A conditional logit model is used to measure the relative importance of the socio-economic factors and calculate the expected probability of disease reporting under changes of levels of these factors. Results of the study indicated that the likelihood of compensation and the type of culling implemented (all or only unrecovered pigs) are the two most important factors influencing farmer reporting. Compensation level, movement restriction and delay in compensation payment also have significant impacts on farmer's decision to report animal disease but they are not as important as the above factors. Three different scenarios including changes in six different factors (attributes) are tested to predict probability of animal disease reporting. Under the current situation (uncertainty of being compensated), only 4% of the farmers would report swine disease outbreak to the official surveillance system if the culling policy involves all pigs in affected farms. This number is increased to 26% if culling in affected farms is restricted to unrecovered pigs only. Ensuring certainty of compensation increases reporting probability by up to 50% and 90% if all or only unrecovered pigs are destroyed, respectively. The results of this study are important for improving the performance and sustainability of swine disease surveillance system in Vietnam.

Comparison of alternatives to passive surveillance to detect foot and mouth disease incursions in Victoria, Australia

This study aimed to evaluate strategies to enhance the early detection of foot and mouth disease incursions in Australia. Two strategies were considered. First, improving the performance of the current passive surveillance system. Second, supplementing the current passive system with active surveillance strategies based on testing animals at saleyards or through bulk milk testing of dairy herds. Simulation modelling estimated the impact of producer education and awareness by either increasing the daily probability that a farmer will report the presence of diseased animals or by reducing the proportion of the herd showing clinical signs required to trigger a disease report. Both increasing the probability of reporting and reducing the proportion of animals showing clinical signs resulted in incremental decreases in the time to detection, the size and the duration of the outbreak. A gold standard system in which all producers reported the presence of disease once 10% of the herd showed clinical signs reduced the median time to detection of the outbreak from 20 to 15days, the duration of the subsequent outbreak from 53 to 42days and the number of infected farms from 46 to 32. Bulk milk testing reduced the median time to detection by two days and the number of infected farms by six but had no impact on the duration of the outbreak. Screening of animals at saleyards provided no improvement over the current passive surveillance system alone while having significant resource issues. It is concluded that the most effective way to achieve early detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease into Victoria, Australia is to invest in improving producer reporting.

Cultural Practices Shaping Zoonotic Diseases Surveillance: The Case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Thailand Native Chicken Farmers

Effectiveness of current passive zoonotic disease surveillance systems is limited by the under-reporting of disease outbreaks in the domestic animal population. Evaluating the acceptability of passive surveillance and its economic, social and cultural determinants appears a critical step for improving it. A participatory rural appraisal was implemented in a rural subdistrict of Thailand. Focus group interviews were used to identify sanitary risks perceived by native chicken farmers and describe the structure of their value chain. Qualitative individual interviews with a large diversity of actors enabled to identify perceived costs and benefits associated with the reporting of HPAI suspicions to sanitary authorities. Besides, flows of information on HPAI suspected cases were assessed using network analysis, based on data collected through individual questionnaires. Results show that the presence of cockfighting activities in the area negatively affected the willingness of all chicken farmers and other actors to report suspected HPAI cases. The high financial and affective value of fighting cocks contradicted the HPAI control policy based on mass culling. However, the importance of product quality in the native chicken meat value chain and the free veterinary services and products delivered by veterinary officers had a positive impact on suspected case reporting. Besides, cockfighting practitioners had a significantly higher centrality than other actors in the information network and they facilitated the spatial diffusion of information. Social ties built in cockfighting activities and the shared purpose of protecting valuable cocks were at the basis of the diffusion of information and the informal collective management of diseases. Building bridges with this informal network would greatly improve the effectiveness of passive surveillance.

The effect of animal health compensation on 'positive' behaviours towards exotic disease reporting and implementing biosecurity: A review, a synthesis and a research agenda

With an increasing burden on public sector budgets, increased responsibility and cost sharing mechanisms for animal diseases are being considered. To achieve this, fiscal and non-fiscal intervention policies need to be designed such that they consistently promote positive disease risk management practices by animal keepers. This paper presents a review of the available evidence towards whether and how the level and type of funding mechanism affects change within biosecurity behaviours and the frequency of disease reporting. A Nuffield Health Ladder of Interventions approach is proposed as a way to frame the debate surrounding both current compensation mechanisms and how it is expected to change behaviour. Results of the review reveal a division between economic modelling approaches, which implicitly assume a causal link between payments and positive behaviours, and socio-geographic approaches which tend to ignore the influence of compensation mechanisms on influencing behaviours. Generally, economic studies suggest less than full compensation rates will encourage positive behaviours, but the non-economic literature indicate significant variation in response to compensation reflecting heterogeneity of livestock keepers in terms of their values, goals, risk attitudes, size of operation, animal species and production chain characteristics. This may be of encouragement to Western Governments seeking to shift cost burdens as it may induce greater targeting of non-fiscal mechanisms, or suggest more novel ways to augment current compensation mechanisms to both increase responsibility sharing and reduce this cost burden. This review suggests that a range of regulatory, fiscal and nudging policies are required to achieve socially optimal results with respect to positive behaviour change. However, the lack of directly available evidence which proves these causal links may hinder progress towards this optimal mixture of choice and non-choice based interventions.

Distribution of cow-calf producers' beliefs regarding gathering and holding their cattle and observing animal movement restrictions during an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

The voluntary cooperation of producers with disease control measures such as movement restrictions and gathering cattle for testing, vaccination, or depopulation is critical to the success of many disease control programs. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Texas in order to determine the distribution of key beliefs about obeying movement restrictions and gathering and holding cattle for disease control purposes. Two questionnaires were developed and distributed to separate representative samples of Texas cow-calf producers, respectively. The context for each behavior was provided through the use of scenarios in the questionnaire. Belief strength was measured using a 7-point Likert-like scale. Producers surveyed were unsure about the possible negative consequences of gathering and holding their cattle when requested by authorities, suggesting a key need for communication in this area during an outbreak. Respondents identified a lack of manpower and/or financial resources to gather and hold cattle as barriers to their cooperation with orders to gather and hold cattle. Producers also expressed uncertainty about the efficacy of movement restrictions to prevent the spread of foot-and-mouth disease and concern about possible feed shortages or animal suffering. However, there are emotional benefits to complying with movement restrictions and strong social expectations of cooperation with any movement bans put in place.

Distribution of cow-calf producers' beliefs about reporting cattle with clinical signs of foot-and-mouth disease to a veterinarian before or during a hypothetical outbreak

Understanding the prevalence of cattle producers' beliefs regarding disease reporting can help officials improve surveillance programs with passive data collection. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Texas in 2008 and 2009 to determine beliefs about reporting cattle with clinical signs consistent with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) either prior to (scenario 1) or during an on-going outbreak of FMD (scenario 2). Two questionnaires were developed and distributed to Texas cow-calf producers in order to evaluate their behavioral, control, and normative beliefs related to disease reporting. The context for each behavior was provided through the use of scenarios, and belief strength was measured using a 7-point Likert-like scale. Beliefs were compared across scenarios and demographic categories, and the effect of scenario on belief examined using ordinal logistic regression. Respondents agreed that reporting clinically suspect cases would have positive economic and emotional consequences; however, when an outbreak was known to be present, producers were less likely to agree with many of the positive outcomes of reporting. Important barriers to disease reporting indicated by producers included a lack of knowledge related to clinical signs of highly contagious cattle diseases and which cattle are at risk of contracting FMD. In general, beliefs about barriers to reporting did not differ based on scenario. Veterinarians and regulatory authorities were the groups perceived to most strongly expect disease reporting, regardless of the scenario. Risk education for producers related to clinical signs of reportable livestock diseases, post-reporting procedures, and an understanding of FMD introduction and spread may improve the reporting of cattle with clinical signs consistent with FMD.

Agroterrorism targeting livestock: a review with a focus on early detection systems

Agroterrorism targeting livestock can be described as the intentional introduction of an animal disease agent against livestock with the purpose of causing economic damage, disrupting socioeconomic stability of a country, and creating panic and distress. This type of terrorism can be alluring to terrorists because animal disease agents are easily available. This review addresses the vulnerabilities of the livestock industry to agroterrorism. However, we also show that early detection systems have recently been developed for agroterrorism and deliberate spread of animal pathogens in livestock, including an agroterrorism intelligence cycle, syndromic surveillance programs, and computer-based clinical decision support systems that can be used for early detection of notifiable animal diseases. The development of DIVA-vaccines in the past 10 to 15 years has created, in principle, an excellent response instrument to counter intentional animal disease outbreaks. These developments have made our animal agriculture less vulnerable to agroterrorism. But we cannot relax; there are still many challenges, in particular with respect to integration of first line of defense, law enforcement, and early detection systems for animal diseases.

Using mixed methods to investigate factors influencing reporting of livestock diseases: a case study among smallholders in Bolivia

Livestock disease surveillance is particularly challenging in resource-scarce settings, where disease events are often unreported. Surveillance performance is determined as much by the quantifiable biological attributes of the disease, as it is by motivations and barriers perceived by livestock keepers for disease reporting. Mixed methods designs, which integrate the collection, analysis and interpretation of qualitative and quantitative data in a single study, are increasingly used across different disciplines. These designs allow for a deeper exploration of the topic under investigation, than can be achieved by either approach alone.

In this study a mixed methods design was used in order to gain a greater understanding of the factors that influence reporting of livestock diseases in Bolivia. There is a need to strengthen passive surveillance in this country, among other reasons as part of an eradication programme for Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). Findings revealed livestock keepers in the study area were extremely unlikely to report the occurrence of livestock health events to the Official Veterinary Services (OVS). Communication outside the local community occurs more often through alternative routes and this is positively correlated with disease awareness. The main barriers to disease reporting identified were a lack of institutional credibility and the conflicting priorities of the OVS and livestock keepers.

As for other animal and human diseases across the developing world, passive surveillance of livestock diseases in Bolivia should be enhanced; this is urgent in view of the current FMD eradication programme. Increasing timeliness and smallholders’ participation requires a detailed understanding of their likely actions and perceived barriers towards disease reporting. These insights are most likely to be developed through a holistic mixed methods approach of quantitative and qualitative analyses.

Influences of farmer and veterinarian behaviour on emerging disease surveillance in England and Wales

Surveillance for new and re-emerging animal diseases in England and Wales is based on post-mortem and syndromic analysis of laboratory data collated in a central database by the Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency (AHVLA), with the aim of providing early warning of disease events prior to clinical diagnosis. Understanding the drivers for participation in such systems is critical to the success of attempts to improve surveillance sensitivity. The aim of this study was to investigate the decision-making process governing the submission of biological samples on which this surveillance system is based by use of questionnaires. Data extracted were used to structure and parameterize scenario trees modelling the probability of generating an entry in the surveillance database. The mean probability for database entry per case ranged from 0.085 for neurological disorders to 0.25 for enteric disease. These findings illustrate the importance of on-farm decision making to the generation of surveillance data.

Interdisciplinary approaches to zoonotic disease

Zoonotic infections are on the increase worldwide, but most research into the biological, environmental and life science aspects of these infections has been conducted in separation. In this review we bring together contemporary research in these areas to suggest a new, symbiotic framework which recognises the interaction of biological, economic, psychological, and natural and built environmental drivers in zoonotic infection and transmission. In doing so, we propose that some contemporary debates in zoonotic research could be resolved using an expanded framework which explicitly takes into account the combination of motivated and habitual human behaviour, environmental and biological constraints, and their interactions.