The effect of inoculation dose of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 on the infectiousness of chickens

Estimation of introduction time window of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into broiler chicken farms during the 2020 - 2021 winter season outbreak in Japan

When an infectious disease occurs in an area, early detection of infected farms is important to respond quickly and contain the outbreak on a small scale. Estimating the time window for the introduction of the infection is important for its prevention and control. The aim of this study was to estimate the farm-specific time window from the introduction of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into poultry farms using field data from the HPAI H5N8 outbreak in the 2020-2021 winter season in Japan. Daily mortality data from 12 broiler chicken farms during the outbreak were used for the analysis. A mathematical model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed, SEIR model) was applied to generate the within-flock transmission of HPAI. The model-predicted mortality was fitted to the observed excess mortality data induced by HPAI to estimate the farm-specific transmission rate and the time of virus introduction. The estimated value of the transmission rate in each farm was 1.449 day^-1 in median (min: 0.661 day^-1, max: 3.387 day^-1). The time window from the introduction of the virus to notification in each farm was estimated at 14.0 days in median (min: 8.6 days, max: 24.1 days) in the deterministic model. In addition, in the stochastic model considering the randomness of transmission in the early phase of the outbreak, the upper value of 95 % credible interval of the time window ranged from 12 to 34 days, with a median of 21 days. The results suggest that although one to three weeks had elapsed on most farms until notification after the virus introduction, the time window could exceed three weeks considering the stochasticity of disease transmission. As for the potential farm characteristics affecting within-flock transmission, the transmission rate was smaller (p-value=0.02) and the estimated time window from introduction to notification was longer (p-value=0.02) when birds were older. This study provides reliable information for setting up a tracing period for a potential source farm and enhancing the efforts for early detection.

A Retrospective Study of Early vs. Late Virus Detection and Depopulation on Egg Laying Chicken Farms Infected with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus During the 2015 H5N2 Outbreak in the United States

The 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 outbreak affected more than 200 Midwestern U.S. poultry premises. Although each affected poultry operation incurred substantial losses, some operations of the same production type and of similar scale had differences between one another in their ability to recognize evidence of the disease before formal diagnoses and in their ability to make proactive, farm-level disease containment decisions. In this case comparison study, we examine the effect of HPAI infection on two large egg production facilities and the epidemiologic and financial implications resulting from differences in detection and decision-making processes. Each egg laying facility had more than 1 million caged birds distributed among 18 barns on one premises (Farm A) and 17 barns on the other premises (Farm B). We examine how farm workers' awareness of disease signs, as well as how management's immediate or delayed decisions to engage in depopulation procedures, affected flock mortality, levels of environmental contamination, time intervals for re population, and farm profits on each farm. By predictive mathematical modeling, we estimated the time of virus introduction to examine how quickly infection was identified on the farms and then estimated associated contact rates within barns. We found that the farm that implemented depopulation immediately after detection of abnormal mortality (Farm A) was able to begin repopulation of barns 37 days sooner than the farm that began depopulation well after the detection of abnormally elevated mortality (Farm B). From average industry economic data, we determined that the loss associated with delayed detection using lost profit per day in relation to down time was an additional $3.3 million for Farm B when compared with Farm A.

Experimental test of microbiome protection across pathogen doses reveals importance of resident microbiome composition

The commensal microbes inhabiting a host tissue can interact with invading pathogens and host physiology in ways that alter pathogen growth and disease manifestation. Prior work in house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) found that resident ocular microbiomes were protective against conjunctival infection and disease caused by a relatively high dose of Mycoplasma gallisepticum. Here, we used wild-caught house finches to experimentally examine whether protective effects of the resident ocular microbiome vary with the dose of invading pathogen. We hypothesized that commensal protection would be strongest at low M. gallisepticum inoculation doses because the resident microbiome would be less disrupted by invading pathogen. Our five M. gallisepticum dose treatments were fully factorial with an antibiotic treatment to perturb resident microbes just prior to M. gallisepticum inoculation. Unexpectedly, we found no indication of protective effects of the resident microbiome at any pathogen inoculation dose, which was inconsistent with the prior work. The ocular bacterial communities at the beginning of our experiment differed significantly from those previously reported in local wild-caught house finches, likely causing this discrepancy. These variable results underscore that microbiome-based protection in natural systems can be context dependent, and natural variation in community composition may alter the function of resident microbiomes in free-living animals.

Surveillance and Sequestration Strategies to Reduce the Likelihood of Transporting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Contaminated Layer Manure

Movement and land application of manure is a known risk factor for secondary spread of avian influenza viruses. During an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), movement of untreated (i.e., fresh) manure from premises known to be infected is prohibited. However, moving manure from apparently healthy (i.e., clinically normal) flocks may be critical, because some egg-layer facilities have limited on-site storage capacity. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate targeted dead-bird active surveillance real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing protocols that could be used for the managed movement of manure from apparently healthy egg-layer flocks located in an HPAI control area. We also evaluated sequestration, which is the removal of manure from any contact with chickens, or with manure from other flocks, for a period of time, while the flock of origin is actively monitored for the presence of HPAI virus. We used stochastic simulation models to predict the chances of moving a load of contaminated manure, and the quantity of HPAI virus in an 8 metric ton (8000 kg) load of manure moved, before HPAI infection could be detected in the flock. We show that the likelihood of moving contaminated manure decreases as the length of the sequestration period increases from 3 to 10 days (e.g., for a typical contact rate, with a sample pool size of 11 swabs, the likelihood decreased from 48% to <1%). The total quantity of feces from HPAI-infectious birds in a manure load moved also decreases. Results also indicate that active surveillance protocols using 11 swabs per pool result in a lower likelihood of moving contaminated manure relative to protocols using five swabs per pool. Simulation model results from this study are useful to inform further risk evaluation of HPAI spread through pathways associated with manure movement and further evaluation of biosecurity measures intended to reduce those risks.

Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks

The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.

Mortality-Based Triggers and Premovement Testing Protocols for Detection of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercial Upland Game Birds

Outbreaks involving avian influenza viruses are often devastating to the poultry industry economically and otherwise. Disease surveillance is critically important because it facilitates timely detection and generates confidence that infected birds are not moved during business continuity intended to mitigate associated economic losses. The possibility of using an abnormal increase in daily mortality to levels that exceed predetermined thresholds as a trigger to initiate further diagnostic investigations for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in the flock is explored. The range of optimal mortality thresholds varies by bird species, trigger type, and mortality thresholds, and these should be considered when assessing sector-specific triggers. The study uses purposefully collected data and data from the literature to determine optimal mortality triggers for HPAI detection in commercial upland game bird flocks. Three trigger types were assessed for the ability to detect rapidly both HPAI (on the basis of disease-induced and normal mortality data) and false alarm rate (on the basis of normal mortality data); namely, 1) exceeding a set absolute threshold on one day, 2) exceeding a set absolute threshold on two consecutive days, or 3) exceeding a multiple of a seven-day moving average. The likelihood of disease detection using some of these triggers together with premovement real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) testing was examined. Results indicate that the performance of the two consecutive days trigger had the best metrics (i.e., rapid detection with few false alarms) in the trade-off analysis. The collected normal mortality data was zero on 66% of all days recorded, with an overall mean of 0.6 dead birds per day. In the surveillance scenario analyses, combining the default protocol that relied only on active surveillance (i.e., premovement testing of oropharyngeal swab samples from dead birds by rRT-PCR) together with either of the mortality-based triggers improved detection rates on all days postexposure before scheduled movement. For exposures occurring within 8 days of movement, the protocol that combined the default with single-day triggers had slightly more detections than that with two consecutive days triggers. However, all assessed protocol combinations were able to detect all infections that occurred more than 10 days before scheduled movement. These findings can inform risk-based decisions pertaining to continuity of business in the commercial upland game bird industry.

Virus Shedding of Avian Influenza in Poultry: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Understanding virus shedding patterns of avian influenza virus (AIV) in poultry is important for understanding host-pathogen interactions and developing effective control strategies. Many AIV strains were studied in challenge experiments in poultry, but no study has combined data from those studies to identify general AIV shedding patterns. These systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to summarize qualitative and quantitative information on virus shedding levels and duration for different AIV strains in experimentally infected poultry species. Methods were designed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Four electronic databases were used to collect literature. A total of 1155 abstract were screened, with 117 studies selected for the qualitative analysis and 71 studies for the meta-analysis. A large heterogeneity in experimental methods was observed and the quantitative analysis showed that experimental variables such as species, virus origin, age, inoculation route and dose, affect virus shedding (mean, peak and duration) for highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV), low pathogenic AIV (LPAIV) or both. In conclusion, this study highlights the need to standardize experimental procedures, it provides a comprehensive summary of the shedding patterns of AIV strains by infected poultry and identifies the variables that influence the level and duration of AIV shedding.

Passive inhalation of dry powder influenza vaccine formulations completely protects chickens against H5N1 lethal viral challenge

Bird to human transmission of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) poses a significant risk of triggering a flu pandemic in the human population. Therefore, vaccination of susceptible poultry during an HPAIV outbreak might be the best remedy to prevent such transmissions. To this end, suitable formulations and an effective mass vaccination method that can be translated to field settings needs to be developed. Our previous study in chickens has shown that inhalation of a non-adjuvanted dry powder influenza vaccine formulation during normal breathing results in partial protection against lethal influenza challenge. The aim of the present study was to improve the effectiveness of pulmonary vaccination by increasing the vaccine dose deposited in the lungs and by the use of suitable adjuvants. Two adjuvants, namely, Bacterium-like Particles (BLP) and Advax, were spray freeze dried with influenza vaccine into dry powder formulations. Delivery of dry formulations directly at the syrinx revealed that BLP and Advax had the potential to boost either systemic or mucosal immune responses or both. Upon passive inhalation of dry influenza vaccine formulations in an optimized set-up, BLP and Advax/BLP adjuvanted formulations induced significantly higher systemic immune responses than the non-adjuvanted formulation. Remarkably, all vaccinated animals not only survived a lethal influenza challenge, but also did not show any shedding of challenge virus except for two out of six animals in the Advax group. Overall, our results indicate that passive inhalation is feasible, effective and suitable for mass vaccination of chickens if it can be adapted to field settings.

Host Responses to Pathogen Priming in a Natural Songbird Host

Hosts in free-living populations can experience substantial variation in the frequency and dose of pathogen exposure, which can alter disease progression and protection from future exposures. In the house finch-Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) system, the pathogen is primarily transmitted via bird feeders, and some birds may be exposed to frequent low doses of MG while foraging. Here we experimentally determined how low dose, repeated exposures of house finches to MG influence host responses and protection from secondary high-dose challenge. MG-naive house finches were given priming exposures that varied in dose and total number. After quantifying host responses to priming exposures, all birds were given a secondary high-dose challenge to assess immunological protection. Dose, but not the number of exposures, significantly predicted both infection and disease severity following priming exposure. Furthermore, individuals given higher priming doses showed stronger protection upon secondary, high-dose challenge. However, even single low-dose exposures to MG, a proxy for what some birds likely experience in the wild while feeding, provided significant protection against a high-dose challenge. Our results suggest that bird feeders, which serve as sources of infection in the wild, may in some cases act as "immunizers," with important consequences for disease dynamics.

Avian influenza

Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become infected. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may reach similar maximum prevalence levels in wild bird populations to HPAIV but the risk of LPAIV infection of a poultry holding was estimated to be lower than that of HPAIV. Only few non-wild bird pathways were identified having a non-negligible risk of AI introduction. The transmission rate between animals within a flock is assessed to be higher for HPAIV than LPAIV. In very few cases, it could be proven that HPAI outbreaks were caused by intrinsic mutation of LPAIV to HPAIV but current knowledge does not allow a prediction as to if, and when this could occur. In gallinaceous poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality was identified as the most effective method for early detection of HPAI outbreaks. For effective surveillance in anseriform poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality needs to be accompanied by serological surveillance and/or a virological surveillance programme of birds found dead (bucket sampling). Serosurveillance is unfit for early warning of LPAI outbreaks at the individual holding level but could be effective in tracing clusters of LPAIV-infected holdings. In wild birds, passive surveillance is an appropriate method for HPAIV surveillance if the HPAIV infections are associated with mortality whereas active wild bird surveillance has a very low efficiency for detecting HPAIV. Experts estimated and emphasised the effect of implementing specific biosecurity measures on reducing the probability of AIV entering into a poultry holding. Human diligence is pivotal to select, implement and maintain specific, effective biosecurity measures.

A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Premovement Active Surveillance Protocol Options for the Managed Movement of Turkeys to Slaughter During an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the United States

Risk management decisions associated with live poultry movement during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak should be carefully considered. Live turkey movements may pose a risk for disease spread. On the other hand, interruptions in scheduled movements can disrupt business continuity. The Secure Turkey Supply (STS) Plan was developed through an industry-government-academic collaboration to address business continuity concerns that might arise during a HPAI outbreak. STS stakeholders proposed outbreak response measure options that were evaluated through risk assessment. The developed approach relies on 1) diagnostic testing of two pooled samples of swabs taken from dead turkeys immediately before movement via the influenza A matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test; 2) enhanced biosecurity measures in combination with a premovement isolation period (PMIP), restricting movement onto the premises for a few days before movement to slaughter; and 3) incorporation of a distance factor from known infected flocks such that exposure via local area spread is unlikely. Daily exposure likelihood estimates from spatial kernels from past HPAI outbreaks were coupled with simulation models of disease spread and active surveillance to evaluate active surveillance protocol options that differ with respect to the number of swabs per pooled sample and the timing of the tests in relation to movement. Simulation model results indicate that active surveillance testing, in combination with strict biosecurity, substantially increased HPAI virus detection probability. When distance from a known infected flock was considered, the overall combined likelihood of moving an infected, undetected turkey flock to slaughter was predicted to be lower at 3 and 5 km. The analysis of different active surveillance protocol options is designed to incorporate flexibility into HPAI emergency response plans.

Primary Newcastle disease vaccination of broilers: comparison of the antibody seroresponse and adverse vaccinal reaction after eye-nose drop or coarse spray application, and implication of the results for a previously developed coarse dry powder vaccine

To compare antibody seroresponse and adverse vaccinal reaction induced by Newcastle disease (ND) vaccination after eye-nose drop or coarse spray, groups of SPF broiler hens were vaccinated at day 4 (day of hatch is day 0) and intratracheally inoculated with Escherichia coli at day 11. Body weight gain (BWG) was assessed between day 4 and day 18; colibacillosis lesions and serum antibodies were determined at day 18. Meaningful comparison requires similar vaccine uptake. Vaccine virus loss during spray relative to eye-nose drop, which was assessed by comparing the results of endpoint titrations, was 3 log₁₀. Colibacillosis lesions in birds spray vaccinated with 10^6.4 EID₅₀/chicken were significantly more severe (P < 0.05), compared to those in birds eye-nose drop vaccinated with 10^3.4 EID₅₀/chicken, while the seroresponse was slightly but significantly (P < 0.05) stronger. Colibacillosis lesion scores inversely paralleled BWG. It is concluded that: (1) There is room to improve the coarse ND vaccine spray used regarding adverse vaccinal reaction, while maintaining a sufficient immune response. This is also applicable to the coarse ND powder vaccine studied in previous research, which induced similar antibody response and adverse vaccinal reaction as the spray vaccine used here. (2) The vaccine virus dose influences the colibacillosis susceptibility at seven days post vaccination, as the dynamics of the vaccine virus infection is likely dose-dependent. (3) Low vaccine virus doses likely result in heterogeneous vaccine-take followed by vaccine virus spread from vaccine shedding birds to their non-vaccine virus infected flock mates ("rolling vaccinal reaction").

Different cross protection scopes of two avian influenza H5N1 vaccines against infection of layer chickens with a heterologous highly pathogenic virus

Avian influenza (AI) virus strains vary in antigenicity, and antigenic differences between circulating field virus and vaccine virus will affect the effectiveness of vaccination of poultry. Antigenic relatedness can be assessed by measuring serological cross-reactivity using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests. Our study aims to determine the relation between antigenic relatedness expressed by the Archetti-Horsfall ratio, and reduction of virus transmission of highly pathogenic H5N1 AI strains among vaccinated layers. Two vaccines were examined, derived from H5N1 AI virus strains A/Ck/WJava/Sukabumi/006/2008 and A/Ck/CJava/Karanganyar/051/2009. Transmission experiments were carried out in four vaccine and two control groups, with six sets of 16 specified pathogen free (SPF) layer chickens. Birds were vaccinated at 4weeks of age with one strain and challenge-infected with the homologous or heterologous strain at 8weeks of age. No transmission or virus shedding occurred in groups challenged with the homologous strain. In the group vaccinated with the Karanganyar strain, high cross-HI responses were observed, and no transmission of the Sukabumi strain occurred. However, in the group vaccinated with the Sukabumi strain, cross-HI titres were low, virus shedding was not reduced, and multiple transmissions to contact birds were observed. This study showed large differences in cross-protection of two vaccines based on two different highly pathogenic H5N1 virus strains. This implies that extrapolation of in vitro data to clinical protection and reduction of virus transmission might not be straightforward.

Modelling the Innate Immune Response against Avian Influenza Virus in Chicken

At present there is limited understanding of the host immune response to (low pathogenic) avian influenza virus infections in poultry. Here we develop a mathematical model for the innate immune response to avian influenza virus in chicken lung, describing the dynamics of viral load, interferon-α, -β and -γ, lung (i.e. pulmonary) cells and Natural Killer cells. We use recent results from experimentally infected chickens to validate some of the model predictions. The model includes an initial exponential increase of the viral load, which we show to be consistent with experimental data. Using this exponential growth model we show that the duration until a given viral load is reached in experiments with different inoculation doses is consistent with a model assuming a linear relationship between initial viral load and inoculation dose. Subsequent to the exponential-growth phase, the model results show a decline in viral load caused by both target-cell limitation as well as the innate immune response. The model results suggest that the temporal viral load pattern in the lungs displayed in experimental data cannot be explained by target-cell limitation alone. For biologically plausible parameter values the model is able to qualitatively match to data on viral load in chicken lungs up until approximately 4 days post infection. Comparison of model predictions with data on CD107-mediated degranulation of Natural Killer cells yields some discrepancy also for earlier days post infection.

Crossing the scale from within-host infection dynamics to between-host transmission fitness: a discussion of current assumptions and knowledge

The progression of an infection within a host determines the ability of a pathogen to transmit to new hosts and to maintain itself in the population. While the general connection between the infection dynamics within a host and the population-level transmission dynamics of pathogens is widely acknowledged, a comprehensive and quantitative understanding that would allow full integration of the two scales is still lacking. Here, we provide a brief discussion of both models and data that have attempted to provide quantitative mappings from within-host infection dynamics to transmission fitness. We present a conceptual framework and provide examples of studies that have taken first steps towards development of a quantitative framework that scales from within-host infections to population-level fitness of different pathogens. We hope to illustrate some general themes, summarize some of the recent advances and-maybe most importantly-discuss gaps in our ability to bridge these scales, and to stimulate future research on this important topic.

Trade-offs between and within scales: environmental persistence and within-host fitness of avian influenza viruses

Trade-offs between different components of a pathogen's replication and transmission cycle are thought to be common. A number of studies have identified trade-offs that emerge across scales, reflecting the tension between strategies that optimize within-host proliferation and large-scale population spread. Most of these studies are theoretical in nature, with direct experimental tests of such cross-scale trade-offs still rare. Here, we report an analysis of avian influenza A viruses across scales, focusing on the phenotype of temperature-dependent viral persistence. Taking advantage of a unique dataset that reports both environmental virus decay rates and strain-specific viral kinetics from duck challenge experiments, we show that the temperature-dependent environmental decay rate of a strain does not impact within-host virus load. Hence, for this phenotype, the scales of within-host infection dynamics and between-host environmental persistence do not seem to interact: viral fitness may be optimized on each scale without cross-scale trade-offs. Instead, we confirm the existence of a temperature-dependent persistence trade-off on a single scale, with some strains favouring environmental persistence in water at low temperatures while others reduce sensitivity to increasing temperatures. We show that this temperature-dependent trade-off is a robust phenomenon and does not depend on the details of data analysis. Our findings suggest that viruses might employ different environmental persistence strategies, which facilitates the coexistence of diverse strains in ecological niches. We conclude that a better understanding of the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of influenza A viruses probably requires empirical information regarding both within-host dynamics and environmental traits, integrated within a combined ecological and within-host framework.

Silent spread of highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 virus amongst vaccinated commercial layers

The aim of this study was to determine whether a single vaccination of commercial layer type chickens with an inactivated vaccine containing highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 A/chicken/Legok/2003, carried out on the farm, was sufficient to protect against infection with the homologous virus strain. A transmission experiment was carried out with pairs of chicken of which one was inoculated with H5N1 virus and the other contact-exposed. Results showed that the majority of the vaccinated birds developed haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres below 4log2. No clinical signs were observed in the vaccinated birds and virus shedding was limited. However, nearly all vaccinated birds showed a four-fold or higher increase of HI titres after challenge or contact-exposure, which is an indication of infection. This implies that virus transmission most likely has occurred. This study showed that a single vaccination applied under field conditions induced clinical protection, but was insufficient to induce protection against virus transmission, suggesting that silent spread of virus in vaccinated commercial flocks may occur.

Quantitative transmission characteristics of different H5 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Muscovy ducks

EU annual serosurveillance programs show that domestic duck flocks have the highest seroprevalence of H5 antibodies, demonstrating the circulation of notifiable avian influenza virus (AIV) according to OIE, likely low pathogenic (LP). Therefore, transmission characteristics of LPAIV within these flocks can help to understand virus circulation and possible risk of propagation. This study aimed at estimating transmission parameters of four H5 LPAIV (three field strains from French poultry and decoy ducks, and one clonal reverse-genetics strain derived from one of the former), using a SIR model to analyze data from experimental infections in SPF Muscovy ducks. The design was set up to accommodate rearing on wood shavings with a low density of 1.6 ducks/m(2): 10 inoculated ducks were housed together with 15 contact-exposed ducks. Infection was monitored by RNA detection on oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs using real-time RT-PCR with a cutoff corresponding to 2-7 EID50. Depending on the strain, the basic reproduction number (R0) varied from 5.5 to 42.7, confirming LPAIV could easily be transmitted to susceptible Muscovy ducks. The lowest R0 estimate was obtained for a H5N3 field strain, due to lower values of transmission rate and duration of infectious period, whereas reverse-genetics derived H5N1 strain had the highest R0. Frequency and intensity of clinical signs were also variable between strains, but apparently not associated with longer infectious periods. Further comparisons of quantitative transmission parameters may help to identify relevant viral genetic markers for early detection of potentially more virulent strains during surveillance of LPAIV.

An experimental model to analyse the risk of introduction of a duck-originated H5 low-pathogenic avian influenza virus in poultry through close contact and contaminative transmission

Aquatic wild birds are often carriers of low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs). If H5 and H7 LPAIVs are transmitted to poultry and have the opportunity to circulate, a highly pathogenic AIV may arise. Contact with aquatic wild birds is one of the most important ways in which these LPAIVs can be introduced into poultry flocks. In this study, the transmissibility of a duck-originated H5 LPAIV between ducks and chickens was analysed in a series of animal experiments, using different transmission routes. Results indicate that the outcome of virus intake by chickens exposed to infectious ducks depends on the way the virus is presented. Faecally contaminated drinking water proved to be the most efficient route by which the virus can be transmitted to chickens. The results from this study also suggest that some duck-originated H5 LPAIVs may be introduced to poultry but do not have the potential to become established in poultry populations.

Impact of virus strain characteristics on early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection in commercial table-egg layer flocks and implications for outbreak control

Early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection in commercial poultry flocks is a critical component of outbreak control. Reducing the time to detect HPAI infection can reduce the risk of disease transmission to other flocks. The timeliness of different types of detection triggers could be dependent on clinical signs that are first observed in a flock, signs that might vary due to HPAI virus strain characteristics. We developed a stochastic disease transmission model to evaluate how transmission characteristics of various HPAI strains might effect the relative importance of increased mortality, drop in egg production, or daily real-time reverse transcriptase (RRT)-PCR testing, toward detecting HPAI infection in a commercial table-egg layer flock. On average, daily RRT-PCR testing resulted in the shortest time to detection (from 3.5 to 6.1 days) depending on the HPAI virus strain and was less variable over a range of transmission parameters compared with other triggers evaluated. Our results indicate that a trigger to detect a drop in egg production would be useful for HPAI virus strains with long infectious periods (6-8 days) and including an egg-drop detection trigger in emergency response plans would lead to earlier and consistent reporting in some cases. We discuss implications for outbreak control and risk of HPAI spread attributed to different HPAI strain characteristics where an increase in mortality or a drop in egg production or both would be among the first clinical signs observed in an infected flock.

Implications of within-farm transmission for network dynamics: consequences for the spread of avian influenza

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Cross-scale dynamics were investigated for avian influenza in British poultry.

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Transmission risk is dependent on the assumed within-flock transmission mode.

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Transmission risk may not scale with transmissibility or flock size.

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Transmission risk corresponds with between-farm impact for 28% of farms.

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These results have implications for targeted disease control at the farm-level.

The importance of considering coupled interactions across multiple population scales has not previously been studied for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the British commercial poultry industry. By simulating the within-flock transmission of HPAI using a deterministic S-E-I-R model, and by incorporating an additional environmental class representing infectious faeces, we tracked the build-up of infectious faeces within a poultry house over time. A measure of the transmission risk (TR) was computed for each farm by linking the amount of infectious faeces present each day of an outbreak with data describing the daily on-farm visit schedules for a major British catching company. Larger flocks tended to have greater levels of these catching-team visits. However, where density-dependent contact was assumed, faster outbreak detection (according to an assumed mortality threshold) led to a decreased opportunity for catching-team visits to coincide with an outbreak. For this reason, maximum TR-levels were found for mid-range flock sizes (~25,000–35,000 birds). When assessing all factors simultaneously using multivariable linear regression on the simulated outputs, those related to the pattern of catching-team visits had the largest effect on TR, with the most important movement-related factor depending on the mode of transmission. Using social network analysis on a further database to inform a measure of between-farm connectivity, we identified a large fraction of farms (28%) that had both a high TR and a high potential impact at the between farm level. Our results have counter-intuitive implications for between-farm spread that could not be predicted based on flock size alone, and together with further knowledge of the relative importance of transmission risk and impact, could have implications for improved targeting of control measures.

The impact of viral tropism and housing conditions on the transmission of three H5/H7 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses in chickens

In this study, shedding and transmission of three H5/H7 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) in poultry was characterized and the impact of floor system on transmission was assessed. Transmission experiments were simultaneously conducted with two groups of animals housed on either a grid or a floor covered with litter. Transmission was observed for H5N2 A/Ch/Belgium/150VB/99 LPAIV. This virus was shed almost exclusively via the oropharynx and no impact of floor system was seen. Transmission was also seen for H7N1 A/Ch/Italy/1067/v99 LPAIV, which was shed via both the oropharynx and cloaca. A slight increase in transmission was seen for animals housed on litter. H5N3 A/Anas Platyrhynchos/Belgium/09-884/2008 LPAIV did not spread to susceptible animals, regardless of the floor system. This study shows that environmental factors such as floor systems used in poultry barns may act upon the transmission of LPAIVs. However, the level of influence depends on the virus under consideration and, more specifically, its principal replication sites.

An epidemiologic simulation model of the spread and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among commercial and backyard poultry flocks in South Carolina, United States

Epidemiologic simulation modeling of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks provides a useful conceptual framework with which to estimate the consequences of HPAI outbreaks and to evaluate disease control strategies. The purposes of this study were to establish detailed and informed input parameters for an epidemiologic simulation model of the H5N1 strain of HPAI among commercial and backyard poultry in the state of South Carolina in the United States using a highly realistic representation of this poultry population; to estimate the consequences of an outbreak of HPAI in this population with a model constructed from these parameters; and to briefly evaluate the sensitivity of model outcomes to several parameters. Parameters describing disease state durations; disease transmission via direct contact, indirect contact, and local-area spread; and disease detection, surveillance, and control were established through consultation with subject matter experts, a review of the current literature, and the use of several computational tools. The stochastic model constructed from these parameters produced simulated outbreaks ranging from 2 to 111 days in duration (median 25 days), during which 1 to 514 flocks were infected (median 28 flocks). Model results were particularly sensitive to the rate of indirect contact that occurs among flocks. The baseline model established in this study can be used in the future to evaluate various control strategies, as a tool for emergency preparedness and response planning, and to assess the costs associated with disease control and the economic consequences of a disease outbreak.

Using egg production data to quantify within-flock transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza virus in commercial layer chickens

Even though low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIv) affect the poultry industry of several countries in the world, information about their transmission characteristics in poultry is sparse. Outbreak reports of LPAIv in layer chickens have described drops in egg production that appear to be correlated with the virus transmission dynamics. The objective of this study was to use egg production data from LPAIv infected layer flocks to quantify the within-flock transmission parameters of the virus. Egg production data from two commercial layer chicken flocks which were infected with an H7N3 LPAIv were used for this study. In addition, an isolate of the H7N3 LPAIv causing these outbreaks was used in a transmission experiment. The field and experimental estimates showed that this is a virus with high transmission characteristics. Furthermore, with the field method, the day of introduction of the virus into the flock was estimated. The method here presented uses compartmental models that assume homogeneous mixing. This method is, therefore, best suited to study transmission in commercial flocks with a litter (floor-reared) housing system. It would also perform better, when used to study transmission retrospectively, after the outbreak has finished and there is egg production data from recovered chickens. This method cannot be used when a flock was affected with a LPAIv with low transmission characteristics (R(0)<2), since the drop in egg production would be low and likely to be confounded with the expected decrease in production due to aging of the flock. Because only two flocks were used for this analysis, this study is a preliminary basis for a proof of principle that transmission parameters of LPAIv infections in layer chicken flocks could be quantified using the egg production data from affected flocks.

Quantification of dust-borne transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between chickens

Please cite this paper as: Spekreijse et al. (2013) Quantification of dust‐borne transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between chickens. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(2) 132–138.

Background  Understanding the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) between poultry flocks is essential to prevent and control epidemics. Dust, produced in infected chicken flocks, has been hypothesized to be an important mechanical vector for between‐flock transmission of HPAIv.

Objectives  The aim of our study was to quantify the amount of virus shed by infected birds and its relation to deposition of virus in the environment and the rate of dust‐borne transmission between groups of chickens.

Methods  Four replicate experiments were performed, each replicate with two groups of 14 chickens housed in two separate rooms. In one group, chickens were inoculated with HPAIv. Ventilation forced the air from that room to the second (recipient) group through a tube. Deceased birds in the inoculated group were replaced with new susceptible birds up to day 10 p.i. Dust samples were collected daily. Trachea and cloaca swabs were collected daily to determine virus shedding and virus spread to the recipient group.

Results  The amount of virus detected in dust samples in the recipient room was, on average, 10^3·7 EID₅₀/m³. Virus transmission from the inoculated to the recipient group occurred in two experiments. The transmission rate parameter for dust‐borne transmission was estimated at 0·08 new infections/infectious chicken/day.

Conclusions  The results of this study are a first step to elucidate the importance of dust‐borne transmission of HPAIv between flocks and help interpret environmental samples.

Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms

A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

Vaccination of influenza a virus decreases transmission rates in pigs

Limited information is available on the transmission and spread of influenza virus in pig populations with differing immune statuses. In this study we assessed differences in transmission patterns and quantified the spread of a triple reassortant H1N1 influenza virus in naïve and vaccinated pig populations by estimating the reproduction ratio (R) of infection (i.e. the number of secondary infections caused by an infectious individual) using a deterministic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, fitted on experimental data. One hundred and ten pigs were distributed in ten isolated rooms as follows: (i) non-vaccinated (NV), (ii) vaccinated with a heterologous vaccine (HE), and (iii) vaccinated with a homologous inactivated vaccine (HO). The study was run with multiple replicates and for each replicate, an infected non-vaccinated pig was placed with 10 contact pigs for two weeks and transmission of influenza evaluated daily by analyzing individual nasal swabs by RT-PCR. A statistically significant difference between R estimates was observed between vaccinated and non-vaccinated pigs (p < 0.05). A statistically significant reduction in transmission was observed in the vaccinated groups where R (95%CI) was 1 (0.39-2.09) and 0 for the HE and the HO groups respectively, compared to an R_o value of 10.66 (6.57-16.46) in NV pigs (p < 0.05). Transmission in the HE group was delayed and variable when compared to the NV group and transmission could not be detected in the HO group. Results from this study indicate that influenza vaccines can be used to decrease susceptibility to influenza infection and decrease influenza transmission.

Transmission characteristics of low pathogenic avian influenza virus of H7N7 and H5N7 subtypes in layer chickens

Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infections of H5 and H7 subtypes in poultry are notifiable to the OIE, hence surveillance programmes are implemented. The rate at which LPAIv strains spread within a flock determines the prevalence of infected birds and the time it takes to reach that prevalence and, consequently, optimal sample size and sampling frequency. The aim of this study was to investigate the transmission characteristics of an H7N7 and an H5N7 LPAIv in layer chickens. Two transmission experiments were performed, which consisted of 30 (first experiment) and 20 (second experiment) pairs of conventional layers, respectively. At the start of the experiments, one chicken per pair was inoculated with LPAIv and the other chicken was contact-exposed. Occurrence of infection was monitored by regularly collecting tracheal and cloacal swab samples, which were examined for the presence of virus RNA by RT-PCR. The results of the test were used to estimate the transmission rate parameter (β), the infectious period (T) and the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)). In addition, egg production and virus shedding patterns were quantified. For the H7N7 virus, the β, T and R(0) estimates were 0.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04-0.18) day(-1), 7.1 (95% CI: 6.5-7.8) days and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.0-1.7), respectively. With the H5N7 virus, only a few inoculated chickens (5 out of 20) became infected and no transmission was observed. This study shows that transmission characteristics of LPAIv strains may vary considerably, which has to be taken into account when designing surveillance programmes.

Unravelling transmission trees of infectious diseases by combining genetic and epidemiological data

Knowledge on the transmission tree of an epidemic can provide valuable insights into disease dynamics. The transmission tree can be reconstructed by analysing either detailed epidemiological data (e.g. contact tracing) or, if sufficient genetic diversity accumulates over the course of the epidemic, genetic data of the pathogen. We present a likelihood-based framework to integrate these two data types, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees. We test the approach by applying it to temporal, geographical and genetic data on the 241 poultry farms infected in an epidemic of avian influenza A (H7N7) in The Netherlands in 2003. We show that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or epidemiological data alone. Furthermore, the estimated tree reveals the relative infectiousness of farms of different types and sizes.

A single vaccination of commercial broilers does not reduce transmission of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza

Vaccination of chickens has become routine practice in Asian countries in which H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is endemically present. This mainly applies to layer and breeder flocks, but broilers are usually left unvaccinated. Here we investigate whether vaccination is able to reduce HPAI H5N1 virus transmission among broiler chickens. Four sets of experiments were carried out, each consisting of 22 replicate trials containing a pair of birds. Experiments 1-3 were carried out with four-week-old birds that were unvaccinated, and vaccinated at day 1 or at day 10 of age. Experiment 4 was carried out with unvaccinated day-old broiler chicks. One chicken in each trial was inoculated with H5N1 HPAI virus. One chicken in each trial was inoculated with virus. The course of the infection chain was monitored by serological analysis, and by virus isolation performed on tracheal and cloacal swabs. The analyses were based on a stochastic SEIR model using a Bayesian inferential framework. When inoculation was carried out at the 28^th day of life, transmission was efficient in unvaccinated birds, and in birds vaccinated at first or tenth day of life. In these experiments estimates of the latent period (~1.0 day), infectious period (~3.3 days), and transmission rate parameter (~1.4 per day) were similar, as were estimates of the reproduction number (~4) and generation interval (~1.4 day). Transmission was significantly less efficient in unvaccinated chickens when inoculation was carried out on the first day of life. These results show that vaccination of broiler chickens does not reduce transmission, and suggest that this may be due to the interference of maternal immunity.

Airborne transmission of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 between groups of chickens quantified in an experimental setting

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a devastating viral disease of poultry and quick control of outbreaks is vital. Airborne transmission has often been suggested as a route of transmission between flocks, but knowledge of the rate of transmission via this route is sparse. In the current study, we quantified the rate of airborne transmission of an HPAI H5N1 virus strain between chickens under experimental conditions. In addition, we quantified viral load in air and dust samples. Sixteen trials were done, comprising a total of 160 chickens housed in cages, with three treatment groups. The first group was inoculated with strain A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005 H5N1, the second and third group were not inoculated, but housed at 0.2 and 1.1m distance of the first group, respectively. Tracheal and cloacal swabs were collected daily of each chicken to monitor virus transmission. Air and dust samples were taken daily to quantify virus load in the immediate surroundings of the birds. Samples were tested by quantitative RRT-PCR and virus isolation. In 4 out of 16 trials virus was transmitted from the experimentally inoculated chickens to the non-inoculated chickens. The transmission rate was 0.13 and 0.10 new infections per infectious bird at 0.2m and 1.1m, respectively. The difference between these estimates was, however, not significant. Two air samples tested positive in virus isolation, but none of these samples originated from the trials with successful transmission. Five dust samples were confirmed positive in virus isolation. The results of this study demonstrate that the rate of airborne transmission between chickens over short distances is low, suggesting that airborne transmission over a long distance is an unlikely route of spread. Whether or not this also applies to the field situation needs to be examined.

A 27-amino-acid deletion in the neuraminidase stalk supports replication of an avian H2N2 influenza A virus in the respiratory tract of chickens

The events and mechanisms that lead to interspecies transmission of, and host adaptation to, influenza A virus are unknown; however, both surface and internal proteins have been implicated. Our previous report highlighted the role that Japanese quail play as an intermediate host, expanding the host range of a mallard H2N2 virus, A/mallard/Potsdam/178-4/83 (H2N2), through viral adaptation. This quail-adapted virus supported transmission in quail and increased its host range to replicate and be transmitted efficiently in chickens. Here we report that of the six amino acid changes in the quail-adapted virus, a single change in the hemagglutinin (HA) was crucial for transmission in quail, while the changes in the polymerase genes favored replication at lower temperatures than those for the wild-type mallard virus. Reverse genetic analysis indicated that all adaptive mutations were necessary for transmission in chickens, further implicating quail in extending this virus to terrestrial poultry. Adaptation of the quail-adapted virus in chickens resulted in the alteration of viral tropism from intestinal shedding to shedding and transmission via the respiratory tract. Sequence analysis indicated that this chicken-adapted virus maintained all quail-adaptive mutations, as well as an additional change in the HA and, most notably, a 27-amino-acid deletion in the stalk region of neuraminidase (NA), a genotypic marker of influenza virus adaptation to chickens. This stalk deletion was shown to be responsible for the change in virus tropism from the intestine to the respiratory tract.